EBERLE SHOOTING THE LIGHTS OUT

Jason Gregor
December 17 2012 02:27PM

After Jordan Eberle tallied 34 goals and 76 points last year, some suggested that would be his career-high. But the statistics that many felt was unattainable was his 18.9 shooting percentage. Eberle tallied 34 goals on 180 shots. Steven Stamkos was the only player to score more goals, 60, and have a higher SH%, 19.8. Curtis Glencross, 26 goals on 110 shots for 23.6 SH % and Jiri Hudler, 25 goals on 127 shots for 19.7 SH% were the only other players with 20+ goals and a higher SH % than Eberle.

We won't know how efficient of a scorer he will be in the NHL until the suits find a way to end the lockout, but in the American League Eberle is scoring at a rate they haven't seen in over a decade.

Eberle is a pure goal scorer. He takes a lot of pride of his shot and works on it constantly. 

I think for one, I’ve really worked on my shot. I try not to waste a chance; you know if I’m in the slot I’m going to bury it.  Like you said, I’m not a guy to come down the wing and fire a puck on net. I more so want be the guy that beats the defensive line, tries to make a play to a guy or turn back and try to create more out of it. The chances I usually get, I usually try to slip in to places where it is a lot easier to score. Something about my shot too, I think goalies usually have trouble with it. I think I shoot off the toe a little bit. I ask goalies, ‘What’s the difference between my shot and someone else’s?’ It just comes off differently. So, I take a lot of pride on working on it. If I get a chance, I want to score. It pisses me off when I don’t.

Eberle tallied four goals in four shot on Saturday and now he leads the AHL in goals and shooting percentage. He has 19 goals on 69 shots for a sizzling 27.5 SH%. Some will argue he should be lighting up the AHL, because he's an NHL player, and I would agree, but he's shown accuracy that the league has rarely seen.

Here is a list of the top-five goal scorers dating back to the last lockout.

2005 G SHOTS SH%
Mike Cammalleri 46 308 14.9
Thomas Vanek 42 271 15.4
Denis Hamel 39 247 15.7
Kyle Wellwood 38 184 20.6
Chuck Kobasew 38 250 15.2
       
2006 G SHOTS SH%
Don Maclean 56 271 20.6
Denis Hamel 56 378 14.8
Patrick O'Sullivan 47 321 14.6
Kirby Law 43 229 18.7
Dustin Penner 39 251 15.3
       
2007 G SHOTS SH%
Brett Sterling 55 287 19.1
Alex Giroux 42 269 15.6
Troy Brouwer 41 186 22
Darren Haydar 41 231 17.7
Jeff Heerema 36 315 11.4
       
2008 G SHOTS SH%
Jason Krog 39 212 18.3
Jeff Tambellini 38 237 16.1
Brett Sterling 38 196 19.4
Pascal Pelletier 37 266 13.9
Troy Brouwer 35 212 16.5
       
2009 G SHOTS SH%
Alex Giroux 60 341 17.5
Kyle Greentree 39 264 14.7
Ryan Potulny 38 244 15.6
Artem Anisimov 37 202 18.3
Chris Minard 34 209 16.3
       
2010 G SHOTS SH%
Alex Giroux 50 253 19.7
Jerome Samson 37 332 11.1
Andrew Gordon 37 195 18.9
Brock Trotter 26 165 15.7
Keith Aucoin 35 183 19.1
       
2011 G SHOTS SH%
Colin McDonald 42 259 16.2
Nigel Dawes 41 211 19.4
Chris Terry 34 213 15.9
Mark Mancari 32 204 15.7
Alex Giroux 32 242 13.2
       
2012 G SHOTS SH%
Cory Conacher 39 213 18.3
Mark Fraser 37 253 14.6
Kyle Palmeiri 33 217 15.2
Ryan Potulny 33 188 17.5
Chris Mueller 32 196 16.3
       
2013 G SHOTS SH%
Jordan Eberle 19 69 27.5
Tyler Johnson 16 72 22.2
Cam Atkinson 15 87 17.2
Justin Schultz 14 73 19.1
Drayson Bowman 14 91 15.3

The AHL has only kept track of SH% since 1992/1993. Dane Jackson has the record at 27%, 27 goals on 100 shots in 1996, while Eric Healey sits second at 26.96% when he tallied 31 goals on 115 shots in 2004.

Eberle could go scoreless on his next 15 shots and still sit first in SH%. While some will say "It is only the AHL," the fact is he is more efficient with his shots than anyone else in the league, by a considerable margin.

I'm very curious to see how efficient he will be when the NHL returns, but like I wrote in the summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hover between 16-19%.

NHL SH% RECORDS

Here is a list of the NHL's five best single-season SH%:

Charlie Simmer, 32.75% with 56 goals on 171 shots in 1981.
Sergei Makarov, 32.26% with 30 goals on 93 shots in 1991.
Craig Simpson, 31.6% with 56 goals in 177 shots in 1988. (He had 43 goals on 118 shots, 36.4% in 59 games with Edmonton after being traded from Pittsburgh.)
Warren Young, 30.8% with 40 goals on 130 shots in 1985.
Rob Brown, 30.0% with 24 goals on 51 shots in 1988. Brown has the 7th best SH% as well at 29% with 49 goals on 169 shots in 1989.

Simpson and Simmer sit first and second all-time in career SH%.

1. Craig Simpson 23.66
2. Charlie Simmer 22.34
3. Paul MacLean 21.41
4. Mike Bossy* 21.18
5. Yvon Lambert 19.85

I doubt Eberle or anyone else will come close to those records, but those stats illustrate how much harder it is to score now compared to the 1980s.

On a different note, if you are wondering how the lockout will be impacted by the lawsuit filed by the NHL, and the inevitable disclaimer of interest by the NHLPA read here.

DAY ELEVEN

On Friday we raised another $3,500 thanks to Todd and his generous bid on the Yakupov jersey and party for 10 at the Pint.Today's package includes.

Today's package includes...

A suite for ten at the Edmonton Oil Kings game on Friday, January 11th in the ATB suite.

  • Includes two parking passes very close to the Gretzky statue, so you won't have to walk far.
  • A $750 tab for food and beverages.
  • Jason Strudwick and Rob Brown will join you in the suite to regale you with some great NHL stories.

Bidding goes from 2 p.m. to 6 p.m. You can call 1.800.243.1945 or 780.426.8326 to bid. So far we have raised $28,500 and are on pace to reach my goal of $45,000. Thanks in advance for your generous bid. All the proceeds will go to Santas Anonymous.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Archaeologuy
December 17 2012, 02:38PM
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I heard that when Jordan Eberle pees his name in the snow, he can select which Font type he wants it in. #Accurate

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#2 Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy!
December 17 2012, 03:49PM
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I'm a Jordan Eberle of sorts myself on my beer league team. I'm very selective with my shots. I don't shoot often, but when I do (and this is where the similarity ends), I get stoned.

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#3 David S
December 17 2012, 02:38PM
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Cue the stats guys..."UNSUSTAINABLE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE!!! BlarghHHHHHHHhhHHhH!!!"

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#4 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 17 2012, 04:47PM
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Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy! wrote:

I'm a Jordan Eberle of sorts myself on my beer league team. I'm very selective with my shots. I don't shoot often, but when I do (and this is where the similarity ends), I get stoned.

i see your problem.

you are getting stoned AFTER you shoot. try getting stoned first.

problem solved.

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#5 Archaeologuy
December 17 2012, 02:41PM
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David S wrote:

Cue the stats guys..."UNSUSTAINABLE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE!!! BlarghHHHHHHHhhHHhH!!!"

MEAN MODE MEDIAN MATH NUMBERS QUOTIENT VARIABLES DIVIDED BY PHI EQUALS JORDAN EBERLE WILL BE MOPPING THE FLOORS OF THE LOCKER ROOM BEFORE HE'S 30!!

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#6 Joe
December 17 2012, 02:47PM
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Does shooting % really matter, isn't it all about how many goals he scores???

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#7 jeanshorts
December 17 2012, 03:04PM
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David S wrote:

Cue the stats guys..."UNSUSTAINABLE SHOOTING PERCENTAGE!!! BlarghHHHHHHHhhHHhH!!!"

If he keeps going at this rate they'll have to come up with a new stat to help prove how bad he is.

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#8 Jonathan Willis
December 17 2012, 03:13PM
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I like that Eberle is scoring at the rate that he is, and that his shot has been so accurate at the AHL level. Combined with his NHL play last season, it's a positive indicator, and means that I'd put the probability of him being a 16%+ shooter at the NHL level higher than I would have over the summer.

On the other hand, Phil Cornet was a 31% shooter on almost the exact same number of shots early last year, so definitive it isn't.

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#9 jonrmcleod
December 17 2012, 03:04PM
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Were can I find the list of AHL shooting % leaders?

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#10 Archaeologuy
December 17 2012, 03:09PM
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Joe wrote:

Does shooting % really matter, isn't it all about how many goals he scores???

Yes, but a high Sh% usually means that a player scored more goals than the norm based on the number of shots he actually took.

The average forward should fall somewhere close to 8-9% (As per Mister Willis) so a number more than 2X that is unusual. For most players that is attributed to good luck and in the future they fall back down to the normal range.

The number of shots though likely wont increase to compensate for that, so the goal totals drop as a result.

Yes, it is all about how many goals he scores, but his Sh% suggests that his goal totals will plummet. Unless he's a special player, then he becomes the exception to the rule.

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#11 Jonathan Willis
December 17 2012, 03:15PM
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@Archaeologuy

The NHL's league-average save percentage most years is right around 0.912 IIRC, so the average shooter is actually converts at around 8.8%. It's a little higher for guys with lots of PP time - like Eberle - and a little lower for the guys who don't get it.

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#12 Archaeologuy
December 17 2012, 03:15PM
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@Jonathan Willis

Thank you, will update

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#13 Sloppy Joe
December 17 2012, 03:36PM
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Alex Giroux really jumps off the page as a consistently outstanding AHL player. Shame it never translated to his NHL play.

If I recall correctly, he made relatively big bucks on the Barons (500K), but was mainly playing in the AHL becuase he was keeping the NHL dream alive.

Do you think his skillset would carry over better in the KHL? And would he be able to cash in there? Or would the big ice simply compound his limitations (speed, etc.)?

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#14 TigerUnderGlass
December 17 2012, 03:59PM
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The guys you highlighted as also putting up high percentages in the AHL are not exactly encouraging.

Wellwood and Brouwer both have career NHL numbers around 13-14% and are not exactly offensive juggernauts. Isn't this pretty much exactly what we've been predicting for Eberle?

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#15 CaptainLander
December 17 2012, 04:18PM
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Just means he is not shooting enough

ha

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#16 OilFan
December 17 2012, 04:44PM
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Clearly Eberle is a 50-65 point player i.e MC79HOCKEY

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#18 Mike Krushelnyski
December 17 2012, 05:12PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I heard that when Jordan Eberle pees his name in the snow, he can select which Font type he wants it in. #Accurate

I just know there's a "wingdings" joke to be made there.

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#19 ClosetGM
December 17 2012, 05:18PM
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Eberle is a special player and anyone doubting this kid is a little special too. What does the guy have to do? All he does is score. Does anyone remember the world juniors. Or his first nhl game. Or coming from junior and posting a point per game in the ahl at like 18 or 19. His shot is deadly accurate any moron can see that. Combined with the guys he is playing with, is going to equal points. We have two of the best young shooters in the world ( yakupov ). Mopping the floors!?!?! Wow he Archie we don't need any negative nellies around here go creep some other site.

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#20 TigerUnderGlass
December 17 2012, 05:23PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

I highlighted the guys who were over 20%. Eberle has already been better than both in the NHL, and he significantly better in the AHL.

Proving that 14% is a low prediction.

Highlighting guys who had similar seasons proves that Eberle will not be like them?

Are saying that if the over under is 15 you'll take the over?

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#21 DieHard
December 17 2012, 05:38PM
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He's got a highly accurate shot and is selective. Like he says, what's the point of just shooting when he can make a different play and is good enough to hold on to the puck and check out his options. He is very shifty.

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#23 Quicksilver ballet
December 17 2012, 06:04PM
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......this just in!

Jordan Eberle is....the cats pajamas of hockey players.

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#24 OILERSORDEATH
December 17 2012, 06:08PM
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cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan wrote:

i see your problem.

you are getting stoned AFTER you shoot. try getting stoned first.

problem solved.

@ CABLEGUY

Hilarious dude! Holy crap I needed that laugh! just awesome!

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#25 TigerUnderGlass
December 17 2012, 06:40PM
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@Jason Gregor

Yes I would...I don't think Eberle is ever going to be a guy who shoots often from non high-scoring areas.

So lets figure out what we can put on this for next season.

It would be an insult to him to suggest he is only as good a goal scorer as those two.

I agree, but I'm not the one who provided them in a context of being potential comparables.

My point was simply that bringing those names into the conversation does not help the case that Eberle can maintain his numbers.

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#26 TigerUnderGlass
December 17 2012, 06:41PM
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DieHard wrote:

He's got a highly accurate shot and is selective. Like he says, what's the point of just shooting when he can make a different play and is good enough to hold on to the puck and check out his options. He is very shifty.

Apparently one of the shiftiest players to ever play hockey.

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#27 Krafty
December 17 2012, 06:42PM
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Sloppy Joe wrote:

Alex Giroux really jumps off the page as a consistently outstanding AHL player. Shame it never translated to his NHL play.

If I recall correctly, he made relatively big bucks on the Barons (500K), but was mainly playing in the AHL becuase he was keeping the NHL dream alive.

Do you think his skillset would carry over better in the KHL? And would he be able to cash in there? Or would the big ice simply compound his limitations (speed, etc.)?

Giroux is currently playing in the KHL (courtesy hockeydb.com)

2012-13 Riga Dynamo KHL 33 9 4 13

Mind you this year the KHL has an influx of talent, so in a normal year he would (should) do better than this, but still not blowing the doors off anyone. One of the big complaints about him is foot speed, so yes as you mentioned I am sure it is still an issue, especially on the bigger ice.

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#28 DSF
December 17 2012, 08:05PM
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The real issue is not can Eberle sustain his shooting percentage but, rather, how will NHL teams adjust to him.

If given the time and space he now has, I see no reason he can't continue to score at a great rate.

But seldom do good coaches not create a game plan to try and nullify the other teams best players.

Once the league has a better book on him, I expect you'll see his numbers decline although I believe he has the inate ability of pure goal scorer.

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#29 Sanaa Montana
December 17 2012, 09:11PM
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Bicepus Maximus - Huge fan boy! wrote:

I'm a Jordan Eberle of sorts myself on my beer league team. I'm very selective with my shots. I don't shoot often, but when I do (and this is where the similarity ends), I get stoned.

I just got stoned.;-')

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#30 Cheap Shot Charlie
December 17 2012, 11:06PM
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DSF wrote:

The real issue is not can Eberle sustain his shooting percentage but, rather, how will NHL teams adjust to him.

If given the time and space he now has, I see no reason he can't continue to score at a great rate.

But seldom do good coaches not create a game plan to try and nullify the other teams best players.

Once the league has a better book on him, I expect you'll see his numbers decline although I believe he has the inate ability of pure goal scorer.

And then the question comes back to how will he adjust to teams adjustments to him? Not your best post DSF! But I still love you! *HUG*

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#31 nuge2nail
December 17 2012, 11:49PM
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Oiler Domination To Follow...

On the stick of Jordan Eberle, anyone whos followed his career knows he will find way to score...

I wonder if the Ralph would consider playing Hall Gagner Eberle together, and play Hemsky Nuge and Yakupov together on the second line.

Seemed like Hall Gagner and Eberle clicked for a few games there. Just a thought.

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