Why is Oklahoma struggling?
Jonathan Willis
December 28 2012 10:31AM
With Oklahoma’s win over Texas on Thursday, the team’s record moves to 15-10-4, one game over 0.500. While it’s better than the other side of the win/loss line, it isn’t what was expected out of a team that has (for most of the year) boasted a trio of high-end NHL’ers up front, the AHL’s best player on the blue line, and the reigning AHL goalie of the year.
What’s the problem?
Honestly, it’s a difficult question and despite watching this team from day one I don’t have a solid answer. I have some ideas, but that’s it.
Depth. This is an area where the Barons have had some problems, both up front and on the blue line. There has been a lot of talk about how prospects like Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton aren’t getting power play time and so there needs to be an asterisk next to their absurdly low offensive totals, but these are guys struggling to tread water in depth roles. Pitlick and Hamilton are both minus players in largely third-line minutes; Lander’s performance has surged since being assigned regularly to the top-six but he was a minus player earlier in the year.
On the blue line, Justin Schultz currently sports a plus-14 rating, meaning that the Barons are minus-8 when he is not on the ice. With rookie Martin Marincin imploding, the team’s top left-shooting defenceman these days is ECHL call-up Nathan Deck. Colten Teubert has added muscle but has been just okay defensively; Taylor Fedun has had good moments and bad moments. Schultz might be the league’s best player, but the supporting cast is anemic.
The penalty kill. Given the talent on the team, it should be unsurprising that the Barons are lethal with the man advantage. Unfortunately, the dysfunctional penalty kill has given everything back: the Barons have the best power play and the worst penalty kill in the AHL. The strange thing is that in 2011-12 the Barons had the league’s second-best penalty-killing unit, and on paper a group that includes Chris VandeVelde, Anton Lander, Dane Byers, Tanner House and Magnus Paajarvi should be strong in that department.
The limited impact of the individual. It’s pretty hard to harshly critique any of the four stars playing in Oklahoma. Justin Schultz is the presumptive AHL MVP at this point, and if he wasn’t Jordan Eberle would be. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is plus-7 and better than a point-per-game player; after a slow start coming back from surgery Taylor Hall has scored nine times and added 14 assists over his last 15 games.
But while all four play big minutes for Oklahoma, the team has used 33 different players. Even in a feature role, they aren’t on the ice all the time, and even the best stars can’t make up entirely for a weak team.
The Bottom Line
Despite the weaknesses on the roster, there’s no way the Barons should be mired near the playoff bubble. The penalty kill should not be stuck in last place. The second-tier prospects should not be collapsing the way they have. Dane Byers should not be a five point guy. A team that has boasted Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Hartikainen and Paajarvi as five of its top six for the majority of the year should not be struggling the way it has. The Barons have been handed a huge advantage this year, and they appear to be squandering it.
A farm team is supposed to find the balance between winning and development. The Barons aren’t winning enough and outside of the phenoms they aren’t looking especially good from a development angle either. It’s a problem.
Recently by Jonathan Willis
you mean like this one?
DSF wrote:
@DSF
You're assuming that the RFA provisions in the next CBA require a contract to exceed the cap hits. He's clearly an RFA for 2013-2014, so I assumed that he'd be willing to sign a longer term deal for a reduced cap hit.
PS: What's the Luongo deal that doesn't have the Canucks taking on cap?
If you take away the oilers on ok city didn't basically the same team go long in the playoffs last year. This AHL is on steroids as every team has two or more players that would be in the NHL. If the NHL starts up they will call up Rajala and give ice time to Cornet and some of the healthy scratches We might be surprised at how guys like Lander Pitlick and MPS respond to the opportunity .
This is all nonsense.
1) You think Klefbom (who has never played in NA) is in a better position than Brodin? And yet everyone is pencilling Klefbom in for next season?
2) Minnesota's defensive depth looks like this:
Suter-Gilbert Falk-Scandella Spurgeon-Brodin/Stoner/Cuma/Dumba
No need to rush anyone and there are no Peckhams or Potters in that bunch.
3) Granlund is so much better than Paajarvi he's in another area code. Thing is, Granlund will be playing centre behind Koivu with Cullen, Brodziak, Konopka and Torrey Mitchell (among others) for support. He'll be fine.
4) Jason Zucker: 13G 12A 25P
Hartikainen: 9G 11A 20P
Nick Palmieri: 9G 10A 19P
Paajarvi: 4G 15A 19P
Charlie Coyle: 11G 7A 18P
Johann Larsson: 6G 10A 16P
Palmieri is the same age as Gagner and is cheap. Why would you move him?
Gary blinked.
Get over it.
or you could just admit you were wrong.
maybe wait for 2013. new year = new horizons
Geez if Palmieri has that kind of points in the A, what would Gags have?
I would expect some cap hit will come back but buying out Ballard and trading Raymond makes it pretty easy.
@DSF
Palmieri being as old as Gagner is a strike against him, non? He's putting up Pajarvi numbers and is older.
I do think you're right about Zucker- often overlooked prospect.
Anyone claiming to know who will be better between Brodin and Klefbom is a fool- they're young D so it's a close call at the best of times but with their respective injury history they're both nothing to write in ink anywhere. Brodin is the better bet at this time but it's close enough that no one should be talking tough.
Granlund is awesome, no reasonable person would deny this.
I don't know why you cut Coyle so much more slack than you seem willing ot give any Oiler prospect. His numbers are nice, but pretty far from amazing.
Unrelated note- What happened to Chris Kreider?
Good grief.
Palmieri was a third round pick.
Is that all you've got?
Paajarvi was a top ten pick and is being outscored by a third rounder.
That's embarrassing.
@DSF
1) You think Klefbom (who has never played in NA) is in a better position than Brodin? And yet everyone is pencilling Klefbom in for next season?
Brodin has played all of 8 games in the AHL. That's likely the difference on Craig Button's list of top 30 prospects. He has Klefbom at 18, and Brodin at 17.
For the vaunted Minnesota defensive depth, Suter and Gilbert will be a good pairing. For nearly 20% of the cap, they better be. As to the others, as you point out with Klefbom, you might want to wait to see if they're players.
PS: What's the Luongo deal that doesn't have Vancouver take on cap?
@DSF
1) You think Klefbom (who has never played in NA) is in a better position than Brodin? And yet everyone is pencilling Klefbom in for next season?
Brodin has played all of 8 games in the AHL. That's likely the difference on Craig Button's list of top 30 prospects. He has Klefbom at 18, and Brodin at 17.
For the vaunted Minnesota defensive depth, Suter and Gilbert will be a good pairing. For nearly 20% of the cap, they better be. As to the others, as you point out with Klefbom, you might want to wait to see if they're players.
PS: What's the Luongo deal that doesn't have Vancouver take on cap?
I don't understand why the owners of The Bostons and Vancouvers of the world have shown so little interest in protecting their current teams. Make whole is important, lowering the cap is important, but keeping proactive GMs from getting screwed over isn't a priority? If the cap drops but cap hits stay the same it is a middle finger to teams who bothered securing their core before the lockout. Maybe this is intentional.
I might be missing something; I'm not following the business side that closely.
As noted, Palmieri was a third round pick and nothing more than a depth player.
The Brodin-Klefbom debate is certainly up in the air since both are injured but as I noted earlier, Klefbom is the best Oiler D prospect and everyone is counting on him being a top 4 defenseman yesterday.
Brodin doesn't face that kind of pressure because Minny already has a rock solid top 4.
I expect, though they will have very similar careers.
Coyle is an interesting prospect because he has played in 3 different leagues in the last 12 months.
He's also a 6'2" 210 winger who is putting up decent numbers in the AHL.
What's not to like?
It appears that Bettman is intent on punishing those GM's who abused the "spirit" of the last CBA.
That Jeremy Jacobs is one of the hawks is very curious.
Maybe I can put all of this Oiler cap trouble talk to rest: the Oilers have three players signed past next year. THREE! And Horcoff is one of them, and DSF assures us he will be bought out. So for the 2014-2015 season we have two players signed. I think the Oilers will be fine.
I think Brodin and Klefbom are likely as close as Button says they are.
But, as noted, Brodin doesn't have to step in and be a top 4 defenseman right away. Minny has better depth.
In 2012-2013, when the cap hit becomes an issue, they'll have Suter@7.538, Gilbert@4, Scandella, Faulk, and Spurgeon as RFA's. Only Clayton Stoner has a good contract, but he (like Gilbert) will be a UFA at the end of that year. But, hey, Brodin might get into another game this year, right, so he won't be a rookie technically?
PS: Specifically, what's the deal with Luongo going to be? Luongo and a high pick for a lower pick and a cap dump. Jeez, Gillis is such a great GM.
@Robin Brownlee
Based on the fact that the team with the AHL's co-MVP's, the team that went to the third round of the playoffs last year and added four NHL-calibre players is now one game over 0.500 more than one-third through the season.
When you add Schultz, Eberle, Hall and RNH to the AHL's second-best regular season team, you don't expect to see them slide. Oklahoma has. And it's not like they're consistently out-chancing the opposition but getting snake-bit, either - they get out-shot, and they blow leads.
They haven't been nearly as good as the talent on that roster means they should have been.
Then you add in the fact that the guys who should be getting developed look more like they need to slide down to the ECHL for a time. If they aren't winning, and they aren't developing the second-tier guys, then what exactly are the Barons doing?
@DSF
Are you really defending the defensive depth of the Wild? They have a top end #1 in Suter, a #3 in Gilbert, and then...
And please don't bring up the Oilers defensive depth if you reply to this. Everyone knows it's lacking- that has been discussed ad nauseum. We're talking the Wild here, and there's no way you can honestly say they have anything resembling depth or a "rock solid top 4." Yes, Suter is very good, but he can't play left and right d at the same time for 60 minutes a night.
Are you drunk?
You know this is 2012/13, right?
Where's the answer? Maybe Stu MacGregor isn't the "shining star" people think he is? [lever mind the lotto picks, and Schultz].
Its no secret that Hamilton is a major bust, and Pitlick might not be far off that same pace.
The light might still be on in Paajarvi's house , but it is not shinning to brightly the last couple of seasons.This is the biggest mystery or letdown . Has skil, size and speed...! He as played most of is American hockey with pluggers though... might to need to play with skill guys.?
Take away Schultz, and there's not much on the D at this point, but usually take more time to develop.
Yes I am.
Scandella, Falk, Spurgeon, Brodin and Dumba is a very nice group.
With Suter and Gilbert playing huge minutes, they'll be fine.
Sorry, I meant 2013-2014. But you knew that, and yet again, didn't answer the question. So, while composing another response, I'll ask again:
What specifically do you think the magical Luongo deal will be? Please enlighten us as to the return you expect, be them players or picks. I'll wait patiently....
So those Hall and Eberle 6 year contracts are a mirage?
There are apparently two teams in the running.
Toronto and Edmonton.
If it's Toronto, I expect Burke will give up Kadri and a young defenseman.
If it's Edmonton, I would expect a multi player trade with Hemsky and a prospect going the other way for Luongo and Raymond.
All speculation of course.
So you admit Gagner is a good player, certainly worthy of 1st round status.
@DSF
You've clearly pointed out, earlier in the thread, why Edmonton can't take on any more cap, so they're clearly out of the running.
Kadri, a player like Max Everson, and a cap dump (or agreeing to take on cap space, as permitted in the new CBA) from TO?
Yep, sounds like Gillis is maximizing his opportunities.
Um, no. Those are the two players signed past next year.
Yes the Oilers might have to move one of the first'ers. How is this news people?...Its not even that bad of a situation. The market will/should be saturated and it will be a buyers market. A young kid like Yakupov still in his entry deal will have optimum value in a such a market. We cant expect to keep them all and sooner or later, real hockey moves will have to be made. Not the end of the world.Not the beginning of the end. Not even a negative.
Plus Yakupov. My bad. So the Oilers have three players signed past next year(and Horcoff).
Klefbom, Musil, Pitlick, and a bunch of junk are also signed beyond that.
No. I admit he's better than a third round pick. Although PK Subban is clearly a better player from that draft as are a dozen other players.
Hemsky out and Luongo is is pretty much a wash.
Both teams get better.
A bunch of junk holy give me a break DSF you ol wanker, and you wonder why so many ppl dislike you around here.
Hemsky's deal is only two years, and was structured to pay players like Hopkins.
If Luongo's deal wasn't until 2022, it would be closer. Hey, if they sign the deal now, perhaps his deal might end before the next lockout.
Nah, never happen ;-)
Let us take a closer look at this "very nice group."
Marco Scandella: 83 NHL games: 3 goals 11 assists -31 rating
Justin Falk: 72 NHL games: 1 goal 11 assists -20 rating
Jared Spurgeon: 123 NHL games: 7 goals 28 assists -5 rating
Jonas Brodin: At least a year away.
Matt Dumba: Probably 3 years away.
And having Gilbert play huge minutes is not really a positive. Good player, but not good enough to play huge minutes. Certainly if he was playing for the Oilers you would admit as much.
Well "junk" doesn't get to be on the NHL roster so my point stands: three players are signed past next year.
DSF you have got my goat again. Congratulations I can't argue with stupid.
Sure you can.
Look in the mirror.
Well that's encouraging.
Most teams have their core players locked up long term.
Ugh- you just keep spinning this whatever way you can. I'm pointing out that the Oilers have cap flexibility. You were saying they didn't. And obviously the Oilers will sign players like Smid, RNH, and possibly Yakupov to long term deals. Oh, and that guy that will never sign with them in the first place. You know, the rookie defenseman leading the AHL in scoring.
No actually I can't and you pass that barometer time and time again every day actually.
@Jonathan Willis
You're reaching.
The Barons went into play tonight six points back of the top team in the AHL. That sounds as good as "one game over .500" does bad, right? Same team.
Add . . . . What players did other teams add? And, like I said (and you ignored) Hall and RNH haven't played close to a full slate of games.
Again, how many more points should the Barons have to meet expectations? Is anything less than leading the entire AHL "struggling?"
No sale.
Basically 3 sophmore defensemen, and a couple of rookies in the top seven. That doesn't cut it at the NHL level.
I'm not sure why you guys bother getting drug into arguements with DSF when he is obviously just trying to get a rise out of you.
I know hey, he talks out his ass and then we all argue with him lol.
How would the Wolves be doing with the Sedins, Kesler, Burrows and Hamhuis in the lineup?
The Barons feature all the Oilers best players and are mediocre.
It's a concern,
You're really comparing Eberle, Hall, Hopkins, and Schultz to the Sedins, Kesler, Burrows, and Hamhuis?
Wow, Edmonton's better than I thought.
Cap hit's comparable, although I'd rather have the 22 year old, 21 year old, 20 year old, and 22 year old to the 32 year old, 32 year old, 28 year old, and 30 year old.
Why wouldn't you use Edler in this, as opposed to Hamhuis?
The beatings continue here with DSF keeping everyone in line.
Well done DSF, happy holidays sir.
Not big on Luongo, could we tempt you to part with Bieksa instead?
DSF keeps us in line..... Your joking right.