Why is Oklahoma struggling?
Jonathan Willis
December 28 2012 10:31AM
With Oklahoma’s win over Texas on Thursday, the team’s record moves to 15-10-4, one game over 0.500. While it’s better than the other side of the win/loss line, it isn’t what was expected out of a team that has (for most of the year) boasted a trio of high-end NHL’ers up front, the AHL’s best player on the blue line, and the reigning AHL goalie of the year.
What’s the problem?
Honestly, it’s a difficult question and despite watching this team from day one I don’t have a solid answer. I have some ideas, but that’s it.
Depth. This is an area where the Barons have had some problems, both up front and on the blue line. There has been a lot of talk about how prospects like Anton Lander, Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton aren’t getting power play time and so there needs to be an asterisk next to their absurdly low offensive totals, but these are guys struggling to tread water in depth roles. Pitlick and Hamilton are both minus players in largely third-line minutes; Lander’s performance has surged since being assigned regularly to the top-six but he was a minus player earlier in the year.
On the blue line, Justin Schultz currently sports a plus-14 rating, meaning that the Barons are minus-8 when he is not on the ice. With rookie Martin Marincin imploding, the team’s top left-shooting defenceman these days is ECHL call-up Nathan Deck. Colten Teubert has added muscle but has been just okay defensively; Taylor Fedun has had good moments and bad moments. Schultz might be the league’s best player, but the supporting cast is anemic.
The penalty kill. Given the talent on the team, it should be unsurprising that the Barons are lethal with the man advantage. Unfortunately, the dysfunctional penalty kill has given everything back: the Barons have the best power play and the worst penalty kill in the AHL. The strange thing is that in 2011-12 the Barons had the league’s second-best penalty-killing unit, and on paper a group that includes Chris VandeVelde, Anton Lander, Dane Byers, Tanner House and Magnus Paajarvi should be strong in that department.
The limited impact of the individual. It’s pretty hard to harshly critique any of the four stars playing in Oklahoma. Justin Schultz is the presumptive AHL MVP at this point, and if he wasn’t Jordan Eberle would be. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is plus-7 and better than a point-per-game player; after a slow start coming back from surgery Taylor Hall has scored nine times and added 14 assists over his last 15 games.
But while all four play big minutes for Oklahoma, the team has used 33 different players. Even in a feature role, they aren’t on the ice all the time, and even the best stars can’t make up entirely for a weak team.
The Bottom Line
Despite the weaknesses on the roster, there’s no way the Barons should be mired near the playoff bubble. The penalty kill should not be stuck in last place. The second-tier prospects should not be collapsing the way they have. Dane Byers should not be a five point guy. A team that has boasted Eberle, Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Hartikainen and Paajarvi as five of its top six for the majority of the year should not be struggling the way it has. The Barons have been handed a huge advantage this year, and they appear to be squandering it.
A farm team is supposed to find the balance between winning and development. The Barons aren’t winning enough and outside of the phenoms they aren’t looking especially good from a development angle either. It’s a problem.
Recently by Jonathan Willis
In one ear and out the other when it comes to his foolishness.
What does your question have to do with here and now? Zip.
That Vancouver group is markedly more accomplished than the Edmonton group and will remain so for two or three more years. The Canucks have, as of right now, the better top-end players. This we know (or should).
Having RNH for 19 of 29 games, Hall for 21 games, Eberle and a rookie in Schultz (as impressive as he's been) is supposed to translate into a runaway AHL powerhouse?
OKC won tonight. How many points back of first place overall are they again?
Carry on.
DSF is just pissy because he has no response to my last two posts. ;) And with that I promise not to reply to any of his future posts.
Hilarious. Whenever I return after being away for a while, visit ON, and see over 100 responses to a rather innocuous topic (Struggling Barons 4 points back of division lead with a game in hand?) I know who has been stirring the pot. When it comes to DSF, to quote Elvis Costello, I used to be disgusted, but now I'm just amused.
@DSF
@ DSF - Are you kidding me? Your post was all nonsense - the Wild will avoid cap issues by playing all of these young prospects, not proven NHL players, and succeed? Give me a break.
If you want to drag Klefbom into the Brodin discussion, that is fine. He is set back a year now as well due to his shoulder, so I doubt he will be ready until 2014-15 at the earliest. Based on his injury history, he may never be. It happens. Luckily for the Oil there is more than just one prospect in the pipeline .
As much as I dislike Gagner, if you consider MPS to be a bad comparable for Granlund then comparing Pamlmieri to the Hobbit is a joke. The fact that he is the same age as Gagner and from the same weak draft class is actually detrimental to his case. While I still think the Oilers should trade Sam, he is at least a proven NHL player. Palmieri has yet to prove he can be a regular 4th liner in the show, let alone anything higher. If he does not pan out soon he should be moved to free up a space for a younger prospect - that is how the meat market of professional sports works.
WRT Granlund, he is a great prospect and all I was pointing out is that a full year in the AHL might be better for him. As we often see with European players, once the 40 game mark is passed in their rookie year they hit the wall and plateau for a bit. Would it hurt him to spend the full year in the AHL and work through it there first? I also think we need to wait a bit longer to see how much better he is than MPS. After Paajarvi's rookie season wasn't the sky the limit?
I did not include Zucker in my rebuttal as he looks NHL ready to me, or a test run at the least.
WRT to the other forwards that you listed, their numbers are comparable to Harski and MPS, who you like to run down, but since they are Wild prospects they will somehow be better off?
In addition, as far as the Wild's blueline depth is concerned, I never said that the Oilers' blueline was better. However, if you want to discuss it, here are my thoughts:
I am curious to see how well Suter plays when he is being keyed on instead of having Weber as the main man on the blueline. Personally, I think the Suter contract is a big risk that will be an issue if he does not meet expectations as they will be paying #1 money and term to a #2/#3 d-man. If I had to give that type of contract to one of Weber or Suter, I would go with Weber just like the Preds did (and I am pretty certain every other GM in the league would as well).
While I have always argued that the Wild got the better of the Nick Schultz - Gilbert trade (the Oilers lost big time on that one IMHO), the rest of the blueline is average. If Suter goes down then you will have big problems as there is a lack of proven depth. As someone else pointed out above, the rest of the Wild defence, including the Hobbit known as Spurgeon, are average or below average d-men at best.
You say in one breath that there is no rush to bring up Brodin or Dumba and they mention them in the depth list again? Why? I could throw out Klefbom, Marincin, Musil and Gernat as well as they have as good a shot at making the NHL as those two (although, in Musil's case, I highly doubt it due to his lack of speed). We will see if Dumba ever makes the NHL, and this year is basically a write-off for Brodin development wise due to injury just like Klefbom and Gernat.
Very well said.
Also you may as well stop bickering with DSF after 10:00 pm he is an old man who goes to bed early.
Just got home from the Rebels vs Oil Kings game, Dumba looked awful.. even more he was the responsable for a SH Oil king goal.he a minus player tonight in a 6-1 loss.He might be a good player but hes years away from the big show!!!
This ^^^^^^^
And further to your point, if Suter or Gilbert get injured, the Wild are done.
You know when there is 100+ posts DSF is involved.
Not when your comment their cap hit is due to the ELC bonus structure and the basis for your comment is future salary.
The Oilers will continue to stink as long as Hockey ops are being run by Kevin Lowe. The lack of accountability for dismal performance trickles right through the organization.
Sorry Vancouver will not get anything for Luongo now. Unless a team on the playoff bubble (like the 06 oilers) is only a quality starter away from a playoff run.
Why would you pay anything for him when he is likely to get bought out.
Toronto and Florida will come calling next year and he will get a 6 year deal worth 28M with one of them.
A thoughtful post.
But a couple of points.
This whole discussion was framed around the 2013/14 season and how the Wild and Oilers would deal with a lower cap so your concern about "rushing" players like Brodin and Granlund is unfounded.
BTW, Brodin had a broken collarbone which is far less serious than a shoulder or knee injury and Brodin is already back skating with the Aeros so will not miss an entire season of development as is the case with Klefbom.
Comparing Paajarvi to Granlund is not a joke. Granlund led the SM Liga in scoring last season (PPG) and currently is only 2 points behind Paajarvi in scoring despite only playing half as many games.
As you say, European players often hit a wall in their first NHL season so it would seem to me a 48 game schedule should be just what the doctor ordered, no?
BTW, I have no issues with Hartikainen...looks like an NHL player to me...Paajarvi not so much.
As for the D, if you look at the underlying stats, Suter is actually a better #1D than Weber and your contention that Nashville chose Weber over Suter is nonsense.
They wanted to sign Suter but he chose to go to free agency. While I agree these long term contracts are risky, it's quite likely the Wild just signed the best defenseman in the NHL now that NIk has retired.
If you look at cup winning teams (the 06 Carolina Cindrellas excepted, they are almost invariably built from the back end out with above average goaltending (Backstrom, Harding), a stud #1D who can play 30 minutes a night (Suter), tremendous centre depth (Koivu, Granlund, Brodziak, Cullen, Mitchell, Konopka, Coyle, Phillips), some wingers who can put the puck in the net (Parise, Setoguchi, Heatley, Zucker, Larsson and some exceptional value players on ELC's (Granlund, Coyle, Zucker, Scandella, Brodin, Larsson).
The Wild are now perfectly built to be a cup contender but, as you say, injury can derail that scenario for any team.
I expect Brodin will play in the NHL at some point of the season while Dumba is a ways away.
You obviously should put Klefbom, Marincin, Musil and Gernat in the Oiler's D depth chart but are you convinced that group stacks up well against the Minnesota young D group of Brodin, Scandella, Falk, Spurgeon and Dumba?
Justin Schultz is obviously going to be very good so it'll be interesting to watch how he and Brodin compare over the net several years since they are likely now more comparable than Brodin and Klefbom.
And what happens if Smid and Petry get injured?
Justin Schultz ... suck on that DSF
Yeah, nothing like relying on a rookie to be your #1D.
That always works.
The same thing that would happen to the Wild...they would be hard pressed to win anything.
But nobody here is arguing that Oil lack defensive depth. On the other hand, you are making the case that the Wild have depth, which is a complete fallacy.
Marco Scandella - 83GP in the NHL
Clayton Stoner - 116GP
Justin Falk - 72GP
Jared Spurgeon - 123GP
Nate Prosser - 57GP
Steve Kampfer - 61GP
Jonas Brodin
Tyler Cuma
Looks like pretty decent depth to me.
Ryan Whitney (50%?)
Justin Schultz
Nick Schultz
Ladislav Smid
Jeff Petry
Theo Peckham
Corey Potter
Marincin, Martin
If Whitney is not himself and you take Smid and Petry out of that group, you'd be in a world of hurt
Or in other words:
Scandella - one season in the NHL
Stoner (best name ever) - just over one season NHL
Falk - less than one season NHL
Spurgeon - just over one season NHL
Prosser - half season NHL
Kampfer - half season NHL
Brodin - no NHL experience; just missed half the season
Cuma - no NHL experience
What looks like pretty decent depth to you looks like a potential unmitigated disaster to me.
None of these guys has much/any experience. The ones who do got killed at the NHL level.
Once again, Defying Sanity Forever, (otherwise known as DSF), is here to regal us with his semi factual arguments how the Oilers are the worst team forever. Third and fourth line players can be traded for or picked up, ala Detroit, in their 10 year run.
Jeff Angus @anguscertified
Developing young players to slide into depth roles is important, especially when RNH/Yakupov/Schultz need big money deals down the road.
Jeff Angus @anguscertified
As good as Edmonton's top young guns have been, their depth prospects/players on the farm have been nonexistent.
I am not convinced that Whitney will ever return to his pre-injury level. It is difficult, if not impossible, to ever get the mobility back in the ankle with that type of injury. Peter Forsberg had the exact same type of injury and did not recover.
J. Schultz needs protected minutes. He will be an offensive dynamo but likely a defensive liablily in his first couple of seasons.
N. Schultz is a steady, solid defenseman who won't provide much offense. A perfect compliment to J. Schultz in my opinion.
Smid is also a very steady defenseman who will play the lion's share of minutes on left defense. No problems with Ladislav.
Petry improved leaps and bounds last season, playing alongside Smid to handle the tough minutes. He should continue to improve defensively in addition to his plus offensive skills. He is an excellent passer from his position and shows the wherewithal to jump into the offensive zone when appropriate.
Peckham improved in one area only last season: penalty killing. Given his age, he will likely have to show marked improvement in his overall game in order to secure a future roster spot in the NHL.
Potter is a replacement level defenseman. He showed some ability on the power play last year but will be redundant with the emergence of Justin Schultz. Potter is abysmal when defending odd-man rushes where his brain shuts down and he freezes.
Marincin is clearly not ready for the NHL. I would have Taylor Fedun and Nathan Deck well ahead of him on the defensive depth chart. Klefbom is a bit of a wildcard at this point. Although his size, skating, and smarts will likely more than compensate for his lost developmental year. I would bet that he lands the third pairing left defense position next season.
Overall, I would be happy if the Oilers made a move to add one more top 4 defenseman.
@DSF
"Suter is actually a better #1D than Weber"
Wow dude! When has Suter proven this?
That's a pretty good analysis.
If Whitney is done...that's 4 NHL defensemen.
They need more than 1.
Some WYWY data I saw last season.
Both are great...Suter is better,
I would love it if they could pick up 2 top 4 guys and push the depth chart down. Might be difficult with future cap contraints.
Hopefully they can get some decent FA's on the cheap or another team's buyout on the cheap. However, this won't help them for 2012-13 (if there is a season). To be honest, I think they would be better off from an organization viewpoint to pull another tank and land one more prized pick.
Although I am tired of the Oilers missing the playoffs and the draft trophies are letting Tambellini off the hook for his incompetence.