Break On Through (To the Other Side)

Lowetide
March 19 2012 05:07PM

It is probably dreaming in technicolor. However, if the Edmonton Oilers can sign Jason Garrison as an unrestricted free agent July 1, our friend math suggests there should be dancing in the streets.

Jason Garrison is a 27-year old NHL defenseman with less than 200 games in the best league in the world. He makes $675,000 (cap hit) and he is a free agent at the end of the season. He's 6.02, 214 and along with Mike Weaver is delivering some of the most insane defense available in the NHL this season. Weaver--who makes a million--may be Garrison's equal or even the better plan but at this point the Oilers can't afford to pass on making a strong bid on Garrison.

There is risk with this player. He's about to get a major payday based on one season (well, two) and we know that when it comes to defensemen there is no guarantee against injury or sudden bouts of poor play.

Garrison is a pretty safe UFA, though. Young, two plus seasons of quality play, size and a nice range of skills.

HOW DOES FLORIDA USE HIM?

ZONE STARTS

Garrison gets easier zone starts and plays the 2nd move EV minutes on the club. Interesting to see Weaver--signed for two more years after this one at just over 1M a season--getting the highest mountain on the team.

QUAL COMP

Weaver, Garrison, Kulikov and Campbell are facing the tough music for the Panters this season. Notice that Edi Jovanoski is facing the soft parade, even softer than youngsters Ellerby and Gudbranson. If that Jovo contract makes signing Garrison difficult, the GM should be answering some tough questions.

CORSI REL

The puck is heading in a wonderful direction with Garrison on the ice, Campbell too. A quick note on Weaver: his Corsi Rel is a team worst among Panther defenders, but that's some tough sledding as shown in the two charts above. How Weaver ended up +2 (his current plus minus) is a mystery.

TOI AND OFFENSE

  • EV: 18:27 a game, 6-11-17
  • PP: 2:27 a game, 9-2-11
  • PK: 2:41 a game, 0-1-1

As you can see, Garrison is being used in all three disciplines and has been successful on the PP (9 goals with the man advantage leads all NHL defensemen this season).  By the way, Garrison and Weaver have been doing this for some time, as our friend Jonathan Willis noted months ago.

 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The Edmonton Oilers are looking at adding a quality NHL defenseman who can impact the game in all three disciplines. The Oilers wouldn't have to trade the 2nd overall pick, or Sam Gagner, or any collection of picks and prospects.

It would cost a lot of money. However, the Oilers have $22M in cap room for next season with only Sam Gagner, Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk to sign among worthy rfa's and only Ryan Smyth and Lennart Petrell left among the unrestricted free agents.

Signing Jason Garrison would be a solid move. He is having a career season but has been consistent over two full seasons now and is young enough to be a part of this young Oiler team for several years before decline.

Previous articles in this series:

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
Avatar
#51 Bryzarro World
March 20 2012, 08:22AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Wanyes bastard child

And she isnt a little boy

Avatar
#52 DSF
March 20 2012, 09:50AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@LT

You said:

"If that Jovo contract makes signing Garrison difficult, the GM should be answering some tough questions."

"However, the Oilers have $22M in cap room for next season with only Sam Gagner, Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk to sign among worthy rfa's and only Ryan Smyth and Lennart Petrell left among the unrestricted free agents."

Worth noting that Tallon has almost $24 million in free cap space next season with only Garrison, Kulikov (RFA)and Versteeg (RFA) as significant unsigned free agents.

Don't think he'll have much difficulty re-signing Garrison if he wants to.

Man knows what he's doing.

Avatar
#53 Peterborough
March 20 2012, 10:01AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DSF wrote:

@LT

You said:

"If that Jovo contract makes signing Garrison difficult, the GM should be answering some tough questions."

"However, the Oilers have $22M in cap room for next season with only Sam Gagner, Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk to sign among worthy rfa's and only Ryan Smyth and Lennart Petrell left among the unrestricted free agents."

Worth noting that Tallon has almost $24 million in free cap space next season with only Garrison, Kulikov (RFA)and Versteeg (RFA) as significant unsigned free agents.

Don't think he'll have much difficulty re-signing Garrison if he wants to.

Man knows what he's doing.

Except that FLA is not a cap team and certainly won't be any time soon. Versteeg gets a big raise and so does Kulikov.

Thats Really a 16 million -9 for those two and another 3.5 for Uberwonderkind who plays next year imo.

How do they have room again? They don't.

Avatar
#54 DSF
March 20 2012, 10:15AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Peterborough wrote:

Except that FLA is not a cap team and certainly won't be any time soon. Versteeg gets a big raise and so does Kulikov.

Thats Really a 16 million -9 for those two and another 3.5 for Uberwonderkind who plays next year imo.

How do they have room again? They don't.

Nonsense.

Versteeg is already making $3 million. He might get $4 or $4.5.

Kulikov's cap hit is $1.35 million and he's going to get his second contract so he might get $3 million.

Samuelsson ($2.5M), Sturm ($2.25M) and Wolski ($3.8M) are all coming off the cap.

You can expect Huberdeau will make the team but he'll get less than Wolski.

Only a fool couldn't make those numbers work.

Tallon is no fool.

Avatar
#55 Quicksilver ballet
March 20 2012, 10:46AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
John Chambers wrote:

What's Schultz's status? Is he not Anaheim's property?

Ie, why does he seem likely to be available? Just curious.

If the Ducks don't sign him by the end of May he becomes a group 6 UFA. The best D'man in the NCAA this year is looking for a one way deal which obviously the Ducks aren't willing to do just yet.

The Oilers need a sure thing like Weber or they have to gamble and perhaps take a chance on this Schultz kid. Garrison,Green etc, are all #2 guys on the back end. Making a move like the guys LT's suggesting is a sideways move and not much better than what's here already. The Oilers have the assets to go after a big fish like Weber. It's all or nothing as far as that No.1 spot goes.

Avatar
#56 Quicksilver ballet
March 20 2012, 10:52AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Can't help but think this Jason Garrison kid is this years Jeff Finger.

Avatar
#57 TigerUnderGlass
March 20 2012, 10:59AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Can't help but think this Jason Garrison kid is this years Jeff Finger.

Except Garrison has been a very good defenseman for more than this year. I don't like him for his offense, because it will drop. I like him for his all around game.

Avatar
#58 TigerUnderGlass
March 20 2012, 11:04AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@DSF

Versteeg and Kulikov's previous cap hits are not relevant here because they are not included in next years cap total.

Avatar
#59 DSF
March 20 2012, 11:18AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
TigerUnderGlass wrote:

Versteeg and Kulikov's previous cap hits are not relevant here because they are not included in next years cap total.

They are relevant in the sense that you can get a pretty good idea what they are going to get paid.

Versteeg $4M?, and Kulkov, $3M? are easily paid from the cap savings on other expiring contracts.

With cap space of close to $24M and 16 players under contract, Tallon could sign another 7 players and pay each of them $3M and still be in good shape.

I expect you'll see him add Markstrom @ $1.3M to replace Clemmenson @ $1.2M, Huberdeau @ $3.175M to replace Wolski@ $3.8M and Howden@ $1.1M to replace Sturm @ $2.25M.

Of course, we have no idea what the cap is going to look like in the new CBA but that applies equally to the Oilers and Panthers.

Avatar
#60 TigerUnderGlass
March 20 2012, 11:21AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DSF wrote:

They are relevant in the sense that you can get a pretty good idea what they are going to get paid.

Versteeg $4M?, and Kulkov, $3M? are easily paid from the cap savings on other expiring contracts.

With cap space of close to $24M and 16 players under contract, Tallon could sign another 7 players and pay each of them $3M and still be in good shape.

I expect you'll see him add Markstrom @ $1.3M to replace Clemmenson @ $1.2M, Huberdeau @ $3.175M to replace Wolski@ $3.8M and Howden@ $1.1M to replace Sturm @ $2.25M.

Of course, we have no idea what the cap is going to look like in the new CBA but that applies equally to the Oilers and Panthers.

I agree that he can probably sign everyone. Just the way you wrote your comment seemed to imply, for example, that Versteeg would only add 1-1.5M against the cap compared to their space next year.

Avatar
#61 D-Man
March 20 2012, 11:45AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

If the Ducks don't sign him by the end of May he becomes a group 6 UFA. The best D'man in the NCAA this year is looking for a one way deal which obviously the Ducks aren't willing to do just yet.

The Oilers need a sure thing like Weber or they have to gamble and perhaps take a chance on this Schultz kid. Garrison,Green etc, are all #2 guys on the back end. Making a move like the guys LT's suggesting is a sideways move and not much better than what's here already. The Oilers have the assets to go after a big fish like Weber. It's all or nothing as far as that No.1 spot goes.

No - I don't think the Oilers have the assets to go after Weber... Weber is an RFA - an offer sheet would most likely cost us four to five first round draft picks and $7.0 million in cap space... That's worth considering if defense was the only concern we had to push us over the top... Right now - we have question marks with our goaltending, defense, size in our top 6 and aging veterans in our bottom six...

I'd love Weber in an Oiler jersey but not at that cost - especially considering the fact that he'd only add another 5 wins/year - meaning Calgary Flame purgatory... We need to be patient, draft another key piece, and wait one more year for some of our stupid contracts to disappear...

Avatar
#62 John Chambers
March 20 2012, 12:23PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

If the Ducks don't sign him by the end of May he becomes a group 6 UFA. The best D'man in the NCAA this year is looking for a one way deal which obviously the Ducks aren't willing to do just yet.

The Oilers need a sure thing like Weber or they have to gamble and perhaps take a chance on this Schultz kid. Garrison,Green etc, are all #2 guys on the back end. Making a move like the guys LT's suggesting is a sideways move and not much better than what's here already. The Oilers have the assets to go after a big fish like Weber. It's all or nothing as far as that No.1 spot goes.

Brother, we don't agree much but we see eye to eye here.

Thanks for the info on Schultz, btw. I'm a smarter person today for it.

Avatar
#63 Dog Train
March 20 2012, 01:47PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

My only concern with Garrison is that playing in Florida and playing in Edmonton are two very different things. Maybe it's unfair but there have been plenty of players who play well in obscurity then fold under the microscope. He certainly is more intriguing than Phaneuf or Green though.

That Schultz kid from Anaheim sounds intriguing but it's always a risk when a kid is already asking for a one-way deal right out of college. Sounds like he is good enough to do it but you never know with young dmen.

Comments are closed for this article.