Size Up The Middle: Can Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner Co-Exist?
Jonathan Willis
April 20 2012 01:00PM
The Edmonton Oilers are blessed with two young centres who are bona fide NHL players in the here and now, and who are only likely to get better with the passing of time. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the first overall pick in 2011, and Sam Gagner, the sixth overall pick in 2007, are both excellent NHL talents and both fit nicely into the age group of the young forward corps the Oilers have assembled.
Unfortunately, neither stands 6’4” and weighs north of 200 pounds. Do the Oilers need to dump one of the two in exchange for an upgrade in size down the middle?
To answer that question, I decided to go back through all the teams to play in the Stanley Cup Finals since the NHL lockout, and check the size of their top three centres. These centres were then ranked by total ice-time and designated first, second or third line. Here’s the list:
| Team | Season | First Line | Height | Weight | Second Line | Height | Weight | Third Line | Height | Weight | Avg. Height | Avg. Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 2010-11 | David Krejci | 72 | 188 | Patrice Bergeron | 74 | 194 | Chris Kelly | 72 | 198 | 73 | 193 |
| Vancouver | 2010-11 | Ryan Kesler | 74 | 202 | Henrik Sedin | 74 | 188 | Maxim Lapierre | 74 | 207 | 74 | 199 |
| Chicago | 2009-10 | Jonathan Toews | 74 | 208 | Dave Bolland | 72 | 184 | Patrick Sharp | 73 | 199 | 73 | 197 |
| Philadelphia | 2009-10 | Mike Richards | 71 | 199 | Claude Giroux | 71 | 172 | Jeff Carter | 76 | 199 | 73 | 190 |
| Pittsburgh | 2008-09 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Detroit | 2008-09 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Detroit | 2007-08 | Henrik Zetterberg | 71 | 197 | Pavel Datsyuk | 71 | 198 | Valtteri Filppula | 72 | 195 | 71 | 197 |
| Pittsburgh | 2007-08 | Evgeni Malkin | 75 | 195 | Sidney Crosby | 71 | 200 | Jordan Staal | 76 | 220 | 74 | 205 |
| Anaheim | 2006-07 | Ryan Getzlaf | 76 | 221 | Samuel Pahlsson | 72 | 202 | Andy McDonald | 71 | 185 | 73 | 203 |
| Ottawa | 2006-07 | Jason Spezza | 75 | 216 | Mike Fisher | 73 | 208 | Antoine Vermette | 73 | 198 | 74 | 207 |
| Carolina | 2005-06 | Rod Brind'Amour | 73 | 205 | Eric Staal | 76 | 205 | Doug Weight | 71 | 202 | 73 | 204 |
| Edmonton | 2005-06 | Shawn Horcoff | 73 | 207 | Mike Peca | 71 | 183 | Jarret Stoll | 73 | 213 | 72 | 201 |
| Average | 2005-11 | First Line | 6'1" | 203 | Second Line | 6'1" | 194 | Third Line | 6'1" | 203 | 6'1" | 200 |
One point of interest before I get into the size numbers is how ice-time arranges these players. In many cases, the guy centering a team’s second scoring line finishes third in total ice-time – Mike Peca in 2006, Samuel Pahlsson in 2007 and Dave Bolland in 2010 are a few of the unlikely “second” line guys.
Getting back to the main point, the average top-nine centre on a Stanley Cup finalist over the last six seasons isn’t especially big by NHL standards: 6’1”, 200lbs. Pittsburgh’s trio is the biggest on the record here, coming in at a combined average of 6’2” and 205lbs; their opponents in Detroit are the smallest of the group at an average of 5’11”, 197lbs.
The Oilers top three centres today – Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner and Shawn Horcoff – come in at an average of 6’, 192lbs, just slightly shorter and lighter than average. Horcoff and Gagner, listed at 207 and 195 pounds respectively, are both right around the league average; the still-developing Nugent-Hopkins is definitely on the slight side, listed at just 175 pounds. He’ll put on more weight as he gets older, and the Oilers should be right around the average of our group of finalists when he does so.
Looking at the list above, I don’t see a lot of reason why the Oilers couldn’t contend down the road with both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner on the roster. A slightly older Gagner in his prime might be a solid match for a player like Doug Weight, Andy McDonald, or Valtteri Filppula – he’d be a reasonably good fit as the centre of the secondary scoring line. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps developing as hoped, he might be able to fill the role of a Krecji or a Datsyuk/Zetterberg.
Leaving aside Detroit and Boston – teams that didn’t really have much snarl up the middle when they went to the finals – most of these teams had a hard-nosed guy to complement the two scorers. It’s the role Mike Peca in 2006, Mike Fisher in 2007, Jordan Staal in 2008 and 2009, and Dave Bolland in 2010 all played for their teams. If the Oilers hang on to both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner, that’s the sort of player they might want to tag to replace Shawn Horcoff when the Oilers captain eventually moves down the line.
Of course, other changes may be needed. Detroit has some beefy wingers, and Boston was famous for the grit (personified by Milan Lucic) and, umm, personality (personified by Brad Marchand) on their wings last season. I’ll be doing this same comparison between Edmonton and Stanley Cup Finalists, only focused on the other forward positions, in the near future.
But for right now, I think there’s an obvious conclusion: the Oilers shouldn’t be in a rush to move Sam Gagner down the line because they’re too small up the middle. Stanley Cup history shows plainly that teams can win with two centres – and in Detroit’s case even three – of below-average NHL size.
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Why would you think he will improve?
He's been treading water for 5 years.
#6 coming right up.
@DSF
Scoring is down, as evinced by the fact Gagner's 47 points was good for 39th in overall scoring for centres.
But nice try... You can't get around his scoring in relation to every other centre in the league. This year he posted excellent production for a 2nd liner.
He went from the ~50th to 47th to 45th to 39th ranked centre for production, if that isn't improvement, what is?
@Archaeologuy
He was an NHL rookie in his 22 year old season, but he was nowhere near .88 PPG.
42P in 48GP in 06/07
He's also +11 for his career.
Gagner is -42.
Oh DSF, he then went on to produce 21,27,25 and 13 pts...
Should we ignore that? Gagner has already been a more consistent performer, is younger and the 39th best producer in the league.
Cry and complain all you want, nothing will change how good he is or what centre production numbers currently are.
Sure if you could flip him for a 60+ pt good on you, but hating on him for what he is doing is just plain sour troll grapes.
Have been saying this for 2 years now... Gagner needs to beef up muscle wise... get stronger.. I know he's only 22, but he has been in the league for what 5 yrs now. There are small guys that play bigger and hes not one of them. He needs to go to Gary Roberts school of hard knocks [ ala. Steve Stamkos]. Gagner is not hard player on boards, and is always sitting on his butt. He also gets thrown out of the face off circle more than any other center in the NHL>. Giroux is 15 lbs smaller and plays a solid game. Look at Marchand [ Boston ], tough as nails... small guy. Its in your head,, and thats something Gagners hasnt got on to . and he may never... Also get rid of that Pee Wee hockey stick. PS.. Mind you he plays tougher than Hemsky and Horcoff, who are both over 6' , and Horcoff is over 200 lbs.At the end, as much has Ive liked Gagner, I would trade him for the right deal.
@book¡e
That was glorious.
go after parise, the first two lines would look like this hall hopkins eberle hemsky parise yakupov pajarvi lander hartikainen petrell horcs and sign someone that can hit
we will have two great lines and the alpha males can be on seperate lines
sign one of washingtons goalies as a back up to dubey
so long gagner, jones, bellanger smyth ect
gagner is not really one of our biggest players on our team, just to let everyone know, his height and weight are bs
Gagner is bigger, younger, and has scored the exact same number of points in 84 less games.
At least he is better than Kyle Wellwood
The issue is toughness and intensity, not height and weight. Toughness and intensity are a lot harder to measure, but I'm sure there are a few stats out there that can provide some indication? (Hits given / hits received? Takeaways / giveaways? Maybe hook these guys up to a heart rate monitor during the games?)
Look at Paajarvi. He's 6'3" and 200 pounds but he's also the softest player on the team.
Such an interesting article UNTIL you mentioned Horcoffs name. This guy is a 4th liner at best Mind you he could start the season as 3rd line center, cause he does find a way to keep up to the "pace" for the first 10-15 games then he's DONE!
The game he got 8 points was with Hall and Ebs......one of these things is not like the others.
Off topic, but with the wings gettin the boot by the Preds I wonder if Babcock will be back behind the bench.
NugeforCalder!!
Gagner is fine, I'd love to how him and Yakupov play together on the 2nd line behind Hall, Eberle and Nuge.
"Looking at the list above, I don’t see a lot of reason why the Oilers couldn’t contend down the road with both Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner on the roster. A slightly older Gagner in his prime might be a solid match for a player like Doug Weight, Andy McDonald, or Valtteri Filppula – he’d be a reasonably good fit as the centre of the secondary scoring line. If Nugent-Hopkins keeps developing as hoped, he might be able to fill the role of a Krecji or a Datsyuk/Zetterberg."
JW this whole article feels pretty askew. There's not alot of value in your C-size comparative table really...there's so many other factors and so much more context needed to make the claim that we can be a future contender with RNH and Sam at 1-2. In one really commonsense way you're right, sure it COULD work that those two could be 1-2 C on a cup team - but not without an extraordinary upgrade at every other position on the roster - almost every spot.
Now I'm not saying that replacing Sam with, say, J. Staal is a magic wand for the whole team at all, but wouldn't this massive team-wide upgrade process benefit from having a larger, grittier, more consistent points-wise, better FO and PK guy?
Sam is young, has great vision, a great work ethic, and above average skills. But he has average speed, barely average size, below average PK and FO, an OK shot, is rarely physical and requires tougher, or more experienced, or faster, or more skilled (read: better in some significant way) players to open space for him out there to be his effective creative playmaker best. Maybe he elevates his game and proves really effective with elite talents like Yak and Hall stapled to his wings.
But moving forward an upgrade at #2 C would allow us way more flexibility- you could try younger players still carving out their role on the wing (MP, Harski, Pitlick), you could relieve Horc of a bunch more ice time...lots more room to manouever instead of needing to tie the very best wingers to Sam at all times. My two bits.
@Aaron
Upgrade at every slot but the top line I mean...
@Aaron
There are a couple of things I would mention:
1) The idea fans have of first and second lines is often wrong. Samuel Pahlsson was the Ducks second-line centre in 2007. Nobody - almost literally nobody - describes him that way.
The fact is, the "second line" is often third on a team's depth chart, behind the power line and the primary defensive line.
2) What I'm suggesting is that Sam Gagner would fit into the third slot - the centre of a secondary offensive line. He has above average talent for the position.
3) I'm not arguing that the Oilers can't move him for a big guy - if it helps the cause, it helps the cause. What I'm saying is that the Oilers don't need to rush out and deal him away out of some misguided idea that they need more size.
4) I'm also saying that if they deal Sam Gagner, they have to replace Sam Gagner. It might make sense to deal Gagner for a big centre and then find someone else to fill Gagner's role.
@Jonathan Willis
@JW
Thanks for the clarifications, which as you say were there in the original article. I don't think that thinking we need more talented size through the line up is 'misguided', but I do agree you don't deal Gagner for some random coke machine.
If we make no substantial changes at forward, other than say losing Hordi, etc., using your line construction logic we'd have something like this:
Hall-Nuge- Ebs (power offence)
Smyth/MP/Harski -Horc- Jones/Lander/Petrell (primary D line)
Yak - Gagner - Hemmer (secondary offence)
Smyth/MP/Eager/Harski -Lander/Belanger - Jones/Petrell (energy/crash/leftovers...)
@Aaron
self-reply!
the offensive lines need a bit more beef in one of the Gagner/Hemmer slots
That D line looks barely 'OK'
The fourth line could be as much of a black hole as it was last year
BINGO!!!
Perfectly said. It's not the size issue with Ganger and I think we clump grit, endurance and most importantly balance into the word "big". Big does not guarantee these talents in such players. It's more common in big players to have traits like balance ala Dustin Penner however as we have seen with Penner, grit and endurance was not present.
Ganger has determination however he displays little to no balance with the puck. He gets knocked off or brushed off the puck far too easily to grind it out along the boards or to make a strong move to the net.
I'd move Ganger for a center who displays these talents even if said player is less talented offensively.
To me it comes down to skating. No surpise I guess given the name I chose. Skating is more than speed, as said it's having balance, agility (quick turns/edges),the ability to at least gain speed quickly even if the top end isn't blazing fast. Moreau and Grier could really motor if they had half the rink to get going.
As far as I can see, the great small players typically skate well. If a small player can't accelerate away from or outmanoeuvre bigger players, especially in the corners, or keep their balance, how can they consistently win battles? The advantage a small player has and needs is to be quicker than the bigger bodies.
It is the essence of Schremp's failure, and also the Oiler's failure with Omark. Linus can battle for the puck and is a rugged little player. We have our Marchand right now. He probably could put up as good a fight as Hordichuk as well ;)
If given the shot he would outclass Jones in a hurry, and probably do more actual effective hitting. He might also get some assists meaning his linemates could score as well. Unfortunately I think he will be a top notch Oiler killer.
Looks to me Flyers top two centers are Danny Briere (5’10”) and Claude Giroux (5’11”)……are they having issues with size?
It takes time to develop so let be happy with what we have.