April 21 2012 08:32AM
Tobias Rieder is another of Stu MacGregor's "after 100" picks. He is tracking very well after being selected outside the top 100 in his draft year and he could be a "draft steal" if he can keep it going.
VASE VERSUS VASE
We don't have access to TOI totals for junior leagues (or the AHL) but do have access to PP, PK and even strength totals for these young men. Even strength totals are the best indicator of future success, mainly because graduating juniors are extremely unlikely to get PP time as young NHL players (Hall and the Nuge being exceptional).
Lets compare this young Tobias Rieder fellow at evens to famous Oiler prospects at the same age:
- Curtis Hamilton 62, 17-33-50 .806ppg
- Tobias Rieder 60, 26-19-45 .750ppg
- Tyler Pitlick 56, 22-19-41 .732ppg
- Rob Schremp 62, 18-26-44 .710ppg
So we know that Rieder--despite an impressive 18-year old season in the OHL, is "in the range" with 2nd round picks Hamilton and Pitlick and ahead of 2004 first round pick Rob Schremp at the same age.
THAT IS TOO SIMPLISTIC!
That's true, we don't have TOI totals to compare and the teams each played for had a range of GF and played in leagues where offense was more prevalent. It's also true that Rieder is a PK demon and that has value, plus he's ripping it up in the playoffs and that excites people who believe "clutch" is more than a pedal on a motorized vehicle.
WAS IT A GOOD PICK?
It was a brilliant pick--a year after he was drafted Rieder is performing like a second round pick. He has certainly covered his draft bet and more plus we know he has a nice range of skills. This is an outstanding pick--but he isn't Nail Yakupov.
Yakupov--in his draft year--went 42, 18-21-39 .929 and next season will either be well over 1/1 at evens or in the National Hockey League.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Stu MacGregor might be the best friend Oilers fans have ever had, and Tobias Rieder is only the latest "possible" gem in the MBS songbook. We should not expect a player who can keep up offensively with Hall, Ebs and the Nuge. We can hope that he--or Hamilton or Pitlick--grind their talents into something useful in OKC.
There's no shame in that--hell the Oilers since 2008 appear to have done great work in rounds 4-6. Rieder looks to join Teemu Hartikainen and Tyler Bunz as legit NHL prospects with a real chance to have a career in the best league on the planet.
That's a victory. Absolutely.
Our aim is true beginning today at noon, Team 1260. And don't forget the archived edition with appear at the Nations in a timely fashion. Scheduled to appear:
- Corey Pronman, an extremely valuable resource for draftniks. He writes for Hockey Prospectus and his opinion has high value. You can leave questions in the comments section of this blog or tweet @lowetide_ or even email me at firstname.lastname@example.org to pass along questions for Corey and all of our guests.
- Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report. Kirk will discuss the 2011 entry draft and the movers and shakers from a year ago, including Rieder. Kirk has the eastern seaboard covered well so I'll talk to him about some of those college kids who are eligible to sign pro contracts too.
- Kelsey Myroniuk from FC Edmonton. We've had a number of requests for some FC coverage, so we'll talk to Kelsey about the excitement building for this FC season. The Eddies grabbed their first point of the season in Puerto Rico and look to get their first win tomorrow at Clark Park.
- Kent Simpson color commentator for the Edmonton Oil Kings. The Oil Kings are ripping up the playoffs and appear to be on a collision course with the Portland Winterhawks in the WHL final. Moose Jaw's Warriors have incredible fans and they're saying "not so fast" and we'll discuss the series with Mr. Simpson.
- Jonathan Willis from the Nations and the world. We'll talk NHL, the draft, Oilers and more with possibly Jon. I'll ask him about recent ON articles that discussed Ryan Smyth's role on the Oilers next season and the issue of size at center.
- Kent Wilson from Flames Nation and the Nations. We'll talk Flames off-season and put Kent in the middle of the room under a bright lamp and get the real scoop on Brent Sutter's coaching abilities. We'll also ask about Sven Baertschi and the craziness of this year's playoffs.
Noon to 2 today, Team 1260. Hope you can tune in.