TRADING THE PICK
Lowetide
April 28 2012 01:38PM
Trading draft picks started BEFORE the beginning of the universal draft in 1969. It was, for the most part, a failed experiment.
This is Sam Pollock. He rarely lost a trade, owing to access and attention to detail. One of the very few deals he "lost" came about because of waiver worries. The winner of the trade explains:
- Bill Torrey: "My organization-building philosophy is to build from within. The only draft choice I gave away (with NYI) was to Sam Pollock, when I took a little goalie from Muskegon (in the old IHL)--number four on his depth chart--Chico Resch for a draft pick. It was the only draft pick I gave up early on in the history of the Islanders. Fortunately, he was a good one."
Early in the expansion era--this would be 1967 through about 1975--the new teams had very little in terms of assets. The established clubs would take their first and second round picks in exchange for older veterans who were close to being a spent force. Terrible deals, but what are you going to do when the owner wants a winner in Oakland and you need a scoring left winger?
It was awful, made the NHL a two tiered league and took forever to level the playing field. Nowadays, the draft picks--especially the first rounders--are held tightly and rarely sent away without a similar draft pick (and something extra) coming back in return.
IF the Oilers decided to deal their pick, where would it go?
BRIGHT LIGHTS, BIG CITY!
If we're discussing the possibility of another General Manager having a big enough ego and enough creativity to make something happen, we should begin with Brian Burke. The man with elan has engineered some incredible draft moments, the biggest being the Sedin draft of 1999 in which Burke acted like an orchestra conductor in convincing the other men at the top of the draft to give him the two best players available.
Burke does have some nice things to pass along to Edmonton:
- 5th overall pick
- NHL defensemen in a variety of price ranges, from a lovely Urban satchel courtesy Louie Vuitton (Phaneuf) to a fetching gold faux leather item from a Music City shopping spree (Cody Franson) and everything in between.
- Expensive but perhaps undervalued wingers who could fill important roles on the team (Nikolai Kulemin).
Now, before we go any deeper into this, a couple of things. I am in no way suggesting EDM trades the number one overall pick or suggesting they do business with Toronto. This is more of a blue sky, "what if" discussion. Second, I'm not saying the deal would be 1st overall for #5, Phaneuf and Kulemin.
We're just talking over a Glenfiddich. A little early in the day but we're sophisticated enough to pull it off.
BEAUTY IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER
I don't for a minute believe that the Edmonton Oilers will deal for Dion Phaneuf, but Carl Gunnarson might be a player of interest and I strongly suspect the organization believes they could make things simpler for Luke Schenn and allow him to establish himself as a quality NHL: defender.
The big question I have is "how much do the Oilers value Ryan Murray?" and then a followup being "is Griffin Reinhart close enough to Murray for the Oilers to risk moving to #5?"
Should the Oilers believe Reinhart can provide the kind of blue they'd like to see rolling out over the next decade or more, then this deal (whatever it might look like) probably has some chance of happening.
If we estimate the top 5 with Edmonton at 5th and TOR at #1, it might go like this:
- TOR: NAIL YAKUPOV
- CBS: RYAN MURRAY
- MON: MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO
- NYI: FILIP FORSBERG
- EDM: GRIFFIN REINHART
How much would Toronto have to give up to make the difference in draft pick attractive to Edmonton? Schenn & Kulemin? Gunnarson and ????
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
My guess is that the Oilers want to walk out of this draft with an impact player, either Yakupov or Murray. Could they move down from one, draft Murray and add a legit top 4D? My guess: that is something close to the ideal scenario for Edmonton. I don't think Toronto lines up well with the Oilers, unless Burke can move up from 5 to given Edmonton a sure fire way to "get their guy."
Up next: the Habs.
Anybody ever traded the #1 and won?
Panthers traded down in 2003, got the player they wanted and some extra.
Very very nervous to hear all the chatter about moving down in the draft. If Yakupov is as good as they say, why not draft him, and trade from whatever area of strength (skilled forwards) is least painful. I hate the thoughts of passing up on a franchise player, for a handful of "useful" players that could be picked up much easier in free agency, once this team shows it can win.
There are a few things. speeds over at the blog posted this, and it's an important item. --
speeds said:
Before injury at the WJHC:
26GP 21G 32A for 53 pts, +21
After injury:
16GP 10G 6A for 16 pts, -6
Small sample sizes, and all that, but I would be investigating that knee pretty closely if I were the Oilers. If he had been playing through a bothersome knee for the rest of the year, and is expected return to 100%/has returned to 100% by the combine, it’s a factor to consider.
Before he was injured, my memory is that there were people suggesting he was trending better than either Hall or RNH were at that time in their draft year, but that’s just my memory.
Can Yakupov play LW? Hall and Yakupov on LW with Eberle and Hemsky on RW would make a very dangerous top 6.
If not, would it ever be sweet to move Hemmer for a mid 1st round draft pick plus a quality defender.
I'd just try my best to sign Justin Schultz, instead of trading the pick to Toronto for Gunner.
Especially if I'm not getting a Blum, Bogosian or Pietrangelo.
I'd really like Zach Bogosain on this team.
What's everyone's thought on trying to move Whitney in a package to upgrade him? Would Garrison be an upgrade? Ryan is only 28 and had that one solid year here but I don't know if I believe in him with those bad ankles.
I guess with Montreal Nathan Beaulieu would be in the conversation
This idea might have some merit, however it is dependent on who the Oilers target from a UFA point of view.
If we were to get Schultz and Suter, then do we need to draft Murray or Reinhert? People are talking about Morgan Rilley being the Steal of the draft?
What gets lost in translation and often overlooked is our need for big strong center man. We all know that we have no first or second defense man but outside of RNH, we have no quality center man. Horcoff is a good, third possibly fourth line center, Gagner is too small to be an effective second line centre, and Belenger belongs in the ECHL.
If we are going to talk trading our first rounder, let there be a centre involved.
Ok, time for crazy cuz this is the time of year to pretend....
Trade number 1 and Gagner to Washington (since they love Russians) and in return get their mid teen pick and Mike Green. Flip the Wsh pick, Omark and Ryan Whitney to Toronto (cuz Burke loves Americans) for number 5 pick and Luke Schenn. Defense upgraded overnight. Now to get Washington to also give us Holtby and Laich!
Feel free to call me a dreamer as we all know gm don't make actual trades these days.
According to Red Line Report , there are no stand out D- men in the draft.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/story/2012-04-22/nhl-draft-april-red-line-report/54474130/1
Not sure I'd call that one a win.
Florida never made the playoffs in the 6 years Horton was there. Meyer has only played 20 NHL games and Mikael Samuelsson became a UFA and left after only 37 games with the Panthers.
That year, Eric Staal was the consensus #1 overall. Florida already had Luongo, so no need to draft Fleury. I'm not saying Staal would have made Florida a playoff team, but that trade didn't help Florida at all in the long or short term.
Oilers 1st overall + Gagner for Columbus 2nd Overall + Johansen + Methot.
Oilers trade their #1 pick and Linus Omark to the Habs for Nathan Beaulieu and #3 pick.
Would you do it?
Keep the pick! There is no upside in not taking the best player available. Pick Yakupov and figure out what the next step is after the best player is in your own hands and off the table. You have way more power with him as an Oiler than not! If you trade down, then you are really gambling, and in year 3 of a rebuild, there should be as little gambling as possible, and more organization of assets.
Alexandre Burrows and Matt Hackett now playing for Canada?
Surprising to say the least
So why not just swap after the draft?
Edmonton is not trading the #1 to CBJ and CBJ don't like Russians. How often does this have to be said but CBJ have said time and time again that Johansen is not available. Good thing fans aren't the GM.
I think it would be fair to say Staal was generally rated as one of the best players in that draft, but I don't think he was a consensus 1st overall in the same way as Yakupov is considered this year.
I'm just going off memory, so it's possible that I'm remembering how people had players rated earlier in the year, but I seem to remember people arguing for Staal, Horton, Zherdev mainly at #1, maybe Fleury as well. Kevin Allen said as much, as well, in the following link:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/draft/2003-06-20-draft_x.htm#allen-picks
Redline had Staal as the 6th best F that draft, according to the following link:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2003-06-12-forwards_x.htm
@Oil
Absolutely not. Why does everyone and their dog want the Oilers to trade the #1 overall for players that are worse than Nail.
No Tyler Seguin, Lucic, J Staal, Brent Burns , L Couture, and Seabrook
WOW! I really think everyone is underestimating what this pick is worth.
First of all, Columbus is high on Johansson, and would not give up on him. Second Gagner has done much more in the NHL than he ever has. Not saying Johansson wont be as good, but this trade would never happen.
The Montreal scenarios are interesting. But would Montreal give up a French name in time of crisis and also why do we need to draft a high end dman if we are trading for one.
Jordan Staal is a great player, but he is third line for a reason, and not just because of Malkin and Crosby. Probably a second line center here but people that is not our problem. You want an elite second line center. The teams with these do not have the calibre of wingers the oilers do. Where would all this money come from.
Adding Yakupov to the mix will boost us to a market and team worth taking a risk on for UFA's.
Try to move hemsky and some picks (not 32nd this is reserved for Tom Wilson) and get up to 9th or 10th (easier said than done) and get the dman than. Only way this pick gets traded is for Columbus' first next year (wont happen though) and the oilers get Mckinnon.
Please take Yakupov. If Murray was Niedermeyer maybe trade down for him, but that is definitely not the vibe I'm getting from the scouting reports. There is no one in the rest of the draft worth trading down for. Yakupov outscored Galchynyuk by 18 pts in 3 less games in their16 yr old season. Let's get the Crosby instead of the Poiliot this time.
The only guys I want to see coming back for the pick are Subban/Pacioretty, Tavares, OEL, Doughty or Seguin. Johansson has red flags because if he can't be better than 4th line in Cbus he is a project. The only assets worth anything in Tor are Gunnersson and Gardiner and they are closer to being worth Gagner than a 1st overall pick.
That's way too little to get in return. If we are trading with Montreal the conversation starts with Louis Leblanc.
The first overall pick has true value and Nail is going to be an allstar for a long time, it has to be a major over payment to trade the pick.
Oilers #1 pick and Gagner for Mtl #3, Leblanc, and Gorges or Subban.
Hind site is 20/20
The only way a trade gets made is if it's with Columbus and includes the #2 pick. In previous blogs I've suggested #1 plus PRV for #2 plus Johanssen.
I think this trade could work for both teams. But personally I think the Oilers would win this big as I feel Johanssen is much a much better prospect than PRV.
I know I've said this before but I can't believe how under valued the NHL Draft Picks are compared to the NFL.
Redskins traded this year's #5 pick, this year's 2nd round pick and 2013 AND 2014 1st round picks for the #2 pick (Robert Griffin III)
We're here talking about getting a 2nd/3rd line winger and a 3-4 Dman in exchange for the FIRST OVERALL PICK???
First overall picks are franchise players and should be valued as such. If the Oilers aren't getting a star player (or next year's 1st), a prospect and a pick in exchange for 1st overall, then we should expect to have Nail in an Oilers Jersey this fall!!
As per Friedman, Jordan Staal may be available with one year left on his contract. He has stated he wants more responsibilities, aka not wanting to be playing behind Crosby and Malkin. Would you trade the 1st pick straight up for Staal, an extended Staal? Is that enough? A one-two punch of RNH and Staal would be sick. Then you can move Gagner for a dman.
Murray worries me, not that he wont be a good D-Man but that he's going to be a Shultz type player with better speed.
Morgan Rielly after watching him, IMO is a better player, and not by a little, but a lot!!
Having said that both players are going to take 2-4 years to become very good.
I can't see the Oilers passing on Yakupov for some maybe's.
These D-Man are not Doughty or Kieth which you could argue trading down for.
There is no franchise D-Man in this draft, very good yes, but not great.
Risky move to give up on a potential franchise player.
the oilers do have a certain amount of depth and development type guys that perhaps would be attractive to a team looking to unload a pick, top up a deal that could include the likes of hamilton, plante, yan denis, etc with a gagner and perhaps the Oilers could secure both Nail and Murray.
*Dare to dream*
This is essentially trading #1 for #2 and a good defense prospect. Might be worth it for CBJ, but I doubt it as reports say they could be wary of drafting a Russian.
Omark is a creer AHLer that can fill in the NHL in short stints.
Not sure I do that if I were CBJ.
I agree. I just don't see the Oil taking anybody but Yak with that pick. how do you give someone up that could possibly be trending better than your stars (who are trending AWESOMELY).
The only way I see a trade is if the Oil are scared of his knee. Valid fear
I would would trade him for Alex in a second
Craig Button told Stauffer yesterday that Murray's comparable is Dan Hamhuis, while he sees Dumba's comparable as a cross between Chelios and Stevens.
It is so hard to see the future, especially when it comes to defensemen. Only time will tell I guess.
This is not the time for gambling. This is the time for safe investment. Take Yakupov if that's what Stu says. Sometimes I am glad Tambellini is GM. He won't gamble.
i like this idea better. Draft Yakupov Trade Hemsky and Gagner for defensive help Move Hall to center
1st line:Harti RNH Eberle 2nd line:MPS Hall Yakupov
THIS SHOULD BE OUR TOP 6
bottom 6 would consist of horcoff and belanger at center Jones, Hordi, Eager, Lander on the wings.
Trading the first overall ... NO THANK YOU! Why trade another franchise player, for a couple spare parts? Yes Luke Schenn is spare part. Neon Dion is not the dman he used to be. Plus his ego is too big to fit inside the Oilers dressing room.
Yakupov is the real deal, Hallzky said so already too! I for one will not argue with that logic!
@DrDave
There's a huge difference between drafting a 22 year old and a seventeen year old. It makes perfect sense that 1st round hockey picks are worth less than the same in football, or even basketball.
Of course, even in hockey 1st overall is usually a sure thing and this year there appears to be quite the drop off between Nail and everyone else. I'd actually say the biggest concern isn't under-valuing the 1st, it's over-valuing later top ten draft picks.
Can we stop talking about top 4 D? The pick is not moving unless it's for a young top 1-2 D! TML don't have any 1-2 D. They have 3-4 D playing 1-2 roles.
These are pretty much the only names I would consider 1-2 D that are young and have decent contracts: Weber, Karlson, Byfuglien, Pietrangelo, Wideman, Yandle, McDonagh, Keith, Girardi, Doughty, Seabrook, Hedman, Larsson, Del Zotto, Gudbranson, Ellis, Marc Staal, E.-Larsson, Bogosian
Sticking to the original "Whiskey question" , flipping OIlers No.1 pick with Toronto's No.5. I would ask for Gardiner and Bozak. Forget Phaneuf,cant skate for the new speedy Oilers. However.. Gardiner,,, would be your bait to get Schultz.. Gardiner and Shcultz played together in college.Bozak is a slight upgrade on Gagner.
Now with couple more shots of whiskey, I would send Hemsky, Gagner, and say Peckham to Columbus for their #2 overal pick. OIlers pick # 1 and 2.
The only thing the Oilers should be considering is how we get another pick in the top ten and trying like hell to draft Rielly, Rienhart or Galchenyuk.
Go hard after Wash pick and move up the draft.
Danis is a ufa this summer.
If Staal makes it clear he would consider being extended in Edmonton, I would do the deal in a heartbeat. As I run away giggling like a grade 3 school girl.
I don't see a deal here. Murray will be gone by the fifth pick, and im not completely sold on dumba or the others. To drop that far toronto would have to give up way more than their fan base would approve of imo. I would guess edmonton would be asking for gunnarson plus gardiner/shenn, and/or one of their bog forward prospects(not kadri the pf types).
I would draft yakupov and place him on lw with ebs and nuge to slaughter the easy comp. hall and hemsky can flank gagner to provide offense while playing tougher competition. Smyth and horcoff will ankor a 3rd line to play the toughs while providing minimal offense. The fourth line will be better pffensively due to the trickle down effect, as lander/belanger plus jones and prv/hartikainen.
Yakupov rnh eberle Hall gagner hemsky Mps/hartikainen horcoff smyth Mps/hartikainen lander/belanger jones Eager
I think its time for young players to start making their mark on the bottom six, and to eliminate the true enforcer position in exchange for more of an agitator. I think belanger will rebound next season but i would like lander to get a full season.
Trade the pick to LA for Brown and Voynov. Supply top 6 truculence and establishing d-man the team needs and give LA the scoring they are looking for. Win/Win.
I dont think the pick gets move unless we get a crazy over payment. If Tambi screws this up his career is over as a GM, he'll do the smart safe thing and draft yakapov. Honestly what would you do ? Take BPA or risk ruining your career ? Would you risk that even if it was a 50/50 chance ? I wouldn't
So you think the Gagner is worth more than Johansen AND Methot?
Jeebus.
Columbus could just sign Kyle Wellwood as a UFA and keep their players.
The Oilers should not trade the 1st overall pick. It's way too big of a gamble. Take the projected franchise player (Yakupov).
I would liken the Oilers dealing the 1st overall pick to a greedy gambler, someone who's won the jackpot who's just not satisfied with settling on their new fortune. A greedy gambler would take their fortune and wager it, trying to double their profits, and then would lose their entire fortune because they just couldn't leave well enough alone.
Seriously, draft Yakupov. Have Hall, Eberle, RNH, and Yakupov in our top-6. Hold on to Sam Gagner. He showed this past season that he's growing as a player, and as he's still very young, the potential to continue to get better exists. Sign Schultz if possible, and then attempt to sign free agents and/or trade spare parts to shore up our defense.
On defense, I'd make sure to hold on to Smid & Petry. Add Schultz, hopefully he's as good as everyone is saying. And then use our other assets (PRV, 2013 1st rounder, etc) to fill out our defense. Also, the Oil need to let Dubnyk play his heart out next season. Now's the time to see what we've got with him. As Khabby's contract will be running out, we need to know if we need to start looking else where for goaltending help.
Can't wait for next season to begin. Let the hockey withdrawls begin.
@db7db7db7
I couldn't agree more!!!
As you opined, LT, Toronto doesn't seem to line up well. And while I agree that Wilson did Schenn no favours, I don't see the player there. He's serviceable, and after a few years of recovering and ever increasing confidence, he'll be decent, but 3/4 is the best I can see.
Draft the Yak!
You Gotta Take The Yak! And man, keep your picks!
These first round picks are like gold when you have Magnificent Stu...And the First Overall? Like Platinum...This will be our last First Overall pick, ever, so lets make it count and get the Franchise BPA.
Anyone who has been thinking of trading these picks might be interested in this little gem. Was browsing around and thought, what if the oilers never ever traded any of their first or second round picks lately...where would they be at. You cant be 100%, as our scouts might have taken different players, but just for fun, here is what we traded away, or lost out on. Now how would that team look today...
Oiler draft pick trades and offer sheet:
2003 1st round pick (17th overall - Zach Parise) for Pouliot and J.F. Jacques
2006 2nd round pick (50th overall - Milan Lucic) with reasoner,stasny for Samsonov
Penner sheet
1st round : Tyler Myers - Buffalo
2nd round : Justin Schultz - Anaheim
3rd round : Kirill Petrov - New York Islanders
PS, arent you glad we didnt get Thomas Vanek? We would have given:
2008: 12th overall (Tyler Myers)
2009: 10th overall (Magnus Paajarvi)
2010: First overall (Taylor Hall)
2011: First overall (Nugent-Hopkins)
That's crazy, never thought about it that way. Yeah, definitely, we need to draft Yakupov for sure. Trading draft picks is such a gamble, especially when you have the top pick in the draft & there's a clear #1 franchise player available.