MOVING DAY

Lowetide
May 19 2012 08:10AM

The Oilers have decided to bring in another coach to save the day. Before we begin to discuss the new coach, let's ask a simple question: what did Tom Renney do wrong?

OVERVIEW

Ask an Oiler fan about what's wrong with the team and the answers come flooding out. I've heard a bunch of things, but the one that I'll take issue with today is the following: the coach didn't play Hall, Ebs and the Nuge enough. The reason I believe it would have been a mistake for Renney to overplay the kids is simple: with the exception of Taylor Hall none of them would have been able to handle it.

I'm going to do a quick comparison here of the four main centermen. I'll begin with the toughest competition faced, and follow the depth chart down. These players are listed in the order that Renney used them: toughest opposition to easiest, but we should also be aware of the extreme zone starts. Horcoff and Belanger were both in the low 40s.

Shawn Horcoff

  • 5x5 points per 60 minutes: 1.04
  • Qual Comp: toughest among centers and all forwards
  • Qual Team: 2nd best among centers and 5th best among forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -1.0 (7th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 43.9% (2nd toughest, 13th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 45.4% (11th best among regular forwards)
  • Plus Minus: -23 on a team that was -26

Horcoff had the toughest opposition, the most severe zone starts among centermen and clearly he did not handle it as well as one would hope from the highest paid center on the roster. The coach decided--and I think rightly--to sacrifice his veteran as opposed to overwhelm his #1 overall pick. I don't think you can blame Renney for this move. Horcoff's offense isn't strong enough to deliver under these circumstances but his CorsiRel suggests he's miles from being the problem.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

  • 5×5 points per 60 minutes: 1.98
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among centers, 4th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: best available among centers, 2nd best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 5.6 (6th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 62.5% (easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 53.6% (2nd best among regular forwards)
  • Plus Minus: -2 on a team that was -26

The Nuge faced the 2nd toughest opposition among centers, not a huge surprise when you consider he played with Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle quite a bit and that's the line the other side would focus on. He got a really nice zone start, credit Renney there with trying to help the team's offense. RNH's CorsiRel is solid, but in a classic case of Who's Zooming Who it is important to have a long look at the name at the top of the charts.

Sam Gagner

  • 5×5 points per 60 minutes: 1.96 
  • Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among centers, 8th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 3rd best among centers, 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: 6.3 (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 54.1% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 51.8% (4th best among regular forwards)
  • Plus Minus: +5 on a team that was -26

Gagner got a push this season and delivered very good numbers across the board. His Corsi Rel, plus minus and 5x5/60 were impressive and he clearly had the puck going in the right direction. Gagner had a good season, although the club should expect him to perform this well against tougher competition as he matures. His 5x5/60 was the 91st best number in the NHL among forwards who played >50 games this past season.

Eric Belanger

  • 5×5 points per 60 minutes: 0.64
  • Qual Comp: 4th toughest among centers, 10th toughest among regular forwards
  • Qual Team: 7th best available teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -4.1 (10th best among regular forwards)
  • Zone Start: 43.2% (toughest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 48.9% (8th best among regular forwards)
  • Plus Minus: -13 on a team that was -26

Belanger was a disaster but he was also gifted with the toughest zone starts. On the other hand, he played the easiest competition and with decent linemates and delivered a ghastly plus minus, Corsi Rel and 5x5/60. It's almost unbelieveable, and I think the Oilers will be tempted to see if this was just a lost season. That may be a mistake.

HOW DID THE VETERANS HELP?

Horcoff hung in there and I believe coach Renney correctly identified him as the best available talent to handle the toughs. His CorsiRel indicates he can still play tough opposition with drastic zone starts and land in the "average" range compared to the rest of the roster. Horcoff's offense against that kind of pitching tells us the new coach may look elsewhere in an effort to get more offense power v power.

The role Horcoff played this year and may play next season--believe it or not--has value in that the Nuge and Gagner had the opportunity to play softer opponents. It was also wise in that the club sent their two best offensive centers out there with a chance to succeed--Horcoff's offense is not close to being good enough to cover those minutes and deliver a strong 5x5/60. Belanger was a good bet but a terrible result. His age makes him a poor bet moving forward.

HOW CAN WE KNOW THE OILERS ARE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING?

At center, the Oilers have two guys who can impact the offense 5x5 in RNH and Sam Gagner. They also have a PP savant in the Nuge. So, what the new coach will need to ask for is an upgrade on Horcoff and the flushing of Belanger. This coach will need to argue strongly against using Anton Lander as an NHL option in 12-13.

I don't think that will happen. If the Oilers run the same group out there next season, or if (more likely) they squeeze Anton Lander into the lineup, the new coach will lack a strong outscoring option to face the opposition's best.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The answer could be Taylor Hall at center. He had the best CorsiRel on the team against tougher opposition, he could continue to protect the Nuge if the club moved the young man to wing for a year.

Can Hall do it? He's Edmonton's best player, and he has shown an ability to get results against ever increasing difficulty in terms of opposition. The new coach is going to cast about and look for his leader, and that leader up front is going to have to spearhead the attack against those ultra-tough centers and defensemen.

Taylor Hall at center is an idea whose time may have come. Tom Renney talked about it, suspect the new hire will make it happen.

 

NATION RADIO

 

NATION RADIO--TEAM 1260--NOON EDMONTON TIME

I'd love your questions today, we have excellent guests and the best questions always come from you. You can drop the ? in the comments section, email nationradio@team1260.com or tweet @lowetide_ or @ItsNationRadio.

Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis: On Sutter, on the Oilers summer, on the #1 overall pick, on Taylor Hall's future role.
  • Bruce McCurdy: We'll discuss the incredible Oil Kings run, the wacky WHC's and the coming attractions in astronomy.
  • Tom Lynn is a player advisor, agent and attorney, certified by the National Hockey League Players Association. He has acted as General Manager and Assistant General Manager of the Minnesota Wild and we’ll talk about the draft. Trades, moving up and down on draft day and the CBA.
  • Corey Pronman has quickly become a credible source on the draft and we'll pursue answers with him with a special focus on some of the "trending" players at the draft. 
  • Kent Simpson from the Oil Kings broadcasts on Team 1260. We'll talk about that stunning opener last night and what the Oil Kings have in store for the rest of the week. Kent also played for Tom Renney, I'll ask his opinion of the Oilers coaching change.
  • Allan Hamilton, legendary member of the Oilers and Oil Kings. We'll talk about that 1966 Memorial Cup team and I'll ask Mr. Hamilton about what the current Oil Kings are experiencing at this year's Memorial Cup.

Please post questions early, I want to make sure to get them all in.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 TwoSkidoos
May 19 2012, 04:56PM
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@Bucknuck

He's a western kid, nothing wrong with that. I'm an Oil fan and live in Oil country, but I spend a lot of time in Calgary for work and it's my opinion that Calgary has a lot more to offer than Edmonton by a fair margin.

Without respect to sports teams.

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#52 Quicksilver ballet
May 19 2012, 05:05PM
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Wonder if Gretzky's name is on that shortlist for the next Oilers coach. He was in town a couple weeks ago with not alot on his agenda.

Is it possible?

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#53 book¡e
May 19 2012, 05:36PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Wonder if Gretzky's name is on that shortlist for the next Oilers coach. He was in town a couple weeks ago with not alot on his agenda.

Is it possible?

No - Gretz ate his humble pie, he sucks as a coach and knows it (perhaps). If he doesn't know it, everybody else does. I know a lot of people here think that Katz is an idiot and certainly dumber than they are. Katz is smart enough to know that hiring Gretzky as coach would be a terrible move. Not only is it likely that you would have to fire him, but it would be a no win firing.

Also, you couldn't pay Gretzky enough to live in Edmonton again.

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#54 DSF
May 19 2012, 06:29PM
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Wax Man Riley wrote:

I have to agree that having Hall at center is not ideal. The kid is a wing, has blazing speed and a great shot. He looks great on the wing.

Would you trade Hall for Seguin? I would have a tough time with it, but it would definitely make me think.

Yes I would.

Hall is not going to play many full seasons based on his style of play.

If he changes his style he'll become less effective because his shot and play making ability are not at the level of Seguin or Skinner.

Don't get me wrong...Hall is a hell of a player...but he was the wrong choice at that time.

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#55 dougtheslug
May 19 2012, 06:40PM
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DSF wrote:

This.

The Oilers have spent the better part of a decade trying to pound square pegs into round holes...failing miserably.

Trying to win with Horcoff as a first line centre, using Smyth as a centre. playing Smid on the wing and thinking Gagner is a second line centre are just a few examples.

Had the Oilers started their rebuild properly by focusing first on defense and centre depth, things would be looking much different now.

They should have drafted Kulikov, not Paajarvi.

They should have drafted Seguin, not Hall.

How much better would the team look with Seguin and Hopkins at centre and a young stud like Kulikov anchoring the D?

The hardest players to find are top notch centres and top pairing defensemen.

But after missing the playoffs for 6 seasons, the Oilers still have the same holes they did previously.

Trying to cover up that lack of planning by shifting players out of their natural positions just weakens everything else further.

Tambellini has to address those problems and the only way he's going to be able to do it is by trading one of the young stars.

Nothing displays a person's ignorance, narcissism, and sense of self importance more graphically than playing the "Shoulda Drafted Him" game. Right. Oilers shoulda drafted Shea Weber, too. So shoulda 29 other teams. Give us all a break and go troll elsewhere.

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#56 fsd
May 19 2012, 06:57PM
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@dougtheslug

"Nothing displays a person's ignorance, narcissism, and sense of self importance more graphically than playing the "Shoulda Drafted Him" game."

This is the guy who did not enough cojones to enter a playoff prediction, but thinks anyone below 50% in a year of upsets needs to turn in their man card.

Same guy breaks a leg to post Marlies 5 Barons 0, but not Barons 5 Marlies 1.

Since he only reports half of what he see the site just needs a DSF filter to strip half of his posts. The last one would begin:

Y s I w u d. H l i n t g i g t p a m n f l s a o s b s d o h s s y e o p a...

Hell, that makes more sense than his usual drivel.

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#57 DSF
May 19 2012, 07:32PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

Nothing displays a person's ignorance, narcissism, and sense of self importance more graphically than playing the "Shoulda Drafted Him" game. Right. Oilers shoulda drafted Shea Weber, too. So shoulda 29 other teams. Give us all a break and go troll elsewhere.

No doubt a Shea Weber draft would have been a good one.

But everyone missed that one.

Smart guys let Paajarvi fall in the draft...except one guy.

He's the same guy that signed Khabibulin to a 4 year contract.

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#58 Dunkin D
May 19 2012, 07:34PM
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I agree with everything about DSF. Guy is a major douche. I now skip reading the comments at Lowetide's blog because of him.

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#59 treevojo
May 19 2012, 07:36PM
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DSF wrote:

Yes I would.

Hall is not going to play many full seasons based on his style of play.

If he changes his style he'll become less effective because his shot and play making ability are not at the level of Seguin or Skinner.

Don't get me wrong...Hall is a hell of a player...but he was the wrong choice at that time.

I could be wrong but I am pretty sure seguin has spent most of his NHL career as a winger. If this is the case how does the trade address the center issue?

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#60 shonn
May 19 2012, 07:41PM
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so just wondering what everyone thinks, if griffen is the next webber (scouts say) then should we draft yakupov or griffen

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#61 DSF
May 19 2012, 07:41PM
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treevojo wrote:

I could be wrong but I am pretty sure seguin has spent most of his NHL career as a winger. If this is the case how does the trade address the center issue?

Yes he has.

But only because Boston is flush at centre.

Bergeron, Krejci, Campbell and Kelly will do that.

Doesn't mean Seguin isn't a centre.

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#62 treevojo
May 19 2012, 07:46PM
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DSF wrote:

Yes he has.

But only because Boston is flush at centre.

Bergeron, Krejci, Campbell and Kelly will do that.

Doesn't mean Seguin isn't a centre.

So what your saying is seguin isn't a good enough center to push Campbell or Kelly out?

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#63 DSF
May 19 2012, 07:54PM
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treevojo wrote:

So what your saying is seguin isn't a good enough center to push Campbell or Kelly out?

Seguin isn't a third or fourth line player.

He's an elite offensive forward.

Do you think he could push Sam Gagner out of second line centre?

Kyle Wellwood can hold his own against little Sammy.

Seguin is at another level entirely.

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#64 treevojo
May 19 2012, 07:58PM
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@DSF

Some would argue that staal is an elite offensive forward as well yet Pittsburgh has seemed more then content to continue running him out as a third line center.

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#65 DSF
May 19 2012, 08:16PM
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@treevojo

Sure.

If the Oilers manage to snag a Crosby and a Malkin...they'll be set.

Just shows you how pathetic the Oilers centre depth really is.

The Kings have Kopitar, Richards and Stoll.

Hopkins is great...then...nothing.

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#66 treevojo
May 19 2012, 08:30PM
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DSF wrote:

Sure.

If the Oilers manage to snag a Crosby and a Malkin...they'll be set.

Just shows you how pathetic the Oilers centre depth really is.

The Kings have Kopitar, Richards and Stoll.

Hopkins is great...then...nothing.

DSF. I get your status here as the oiler Antichrist and actually quite enjoy(as opposed to most others ) the debate that follows because of your asinine comments. Truthfully I think the comments section benefit because of it. But can you imagine how much material you would have right now if oilers took seguin instead of hall. Hall would have actually played last year in the playoffs and probably dominated on a line with Bergeron and Marchand. You wouldn't be talking about how seguin could possibly be a great center on the oilers you would be giving the gears of how awesome hall is as a winger and that the oilers missed out on a franchise player. You know that would be your position!

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#67 Butters
May 19 2012, 08:38PM
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@DSF The Kings have Kopitar, Richards and Stoll.

I think Gagner had more points than 2 out of those 3 guys.

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#68 DSF
May 19 2012, 08:47PM
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Butters wrote:

@DSF The Kings have Kopitar, Richards and Stoll.

I think Gagner had more points than 2 out of those 3 guys.

Put Gagner on the third line in LA and watch how many points he gets.

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#69 DSF
May 19 2012, 08:51PM
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treevojo wrote:

DSF. I get your status here as the oiler Antichrist and actually quite enjoy(as opposed to most others ) the debate that follows because of your asinine comments. Truthfully I think the comments section benefit because of it. But can you imagine how much material you would have right now if oilers took seguin instead of hall. Hall would have actually played last year in the playoffs and probably dominated on a line with Bergeron and Marchand. You wouldn't be talking about how seguin could possibly be a great center on the oilers you would be giving the gears of how awesome hall is as a winger and that the oilers missed out on a franchise player. You know that would be your position!

Hall is a very good winger.

Doesn't matter much unless he plays with a great centre.

Have you noticed the Oilers finished 29th?

Who do you you supposed that is?

Maybe they have an unbalanced lineup?

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#70 dougtheslug
May 19 2012, 08:56PM
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DSF wrote:

No doubt a Shea Weber draft would have been a good one.

But everyone missed that one.

Smart guys let Paajarvi fall in the draft...except one guy.

He's the same guy that signed Khabibulin to a 4 year contract.

"Shoulda drafted him"! Oh what fun! In 2008, the Chicago Black Hawks drafted Kyle Beach 11th overall, a player who has yet to play an NHL game, whiffing on Eric Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Michael del Zotto, and Jordan Eberle, among others. And who was the not-so-smart GM responsible for such an obviously bone-headed move? Why it was none other than Dale Tallon, the DSF proclaimed genius responsible for the new Golden Age in Florida. How is that possible? And while we are at it, I note in 2009 that such notables as Nazem Kadri and Scott Glennie were drafted ahead of PRV. Would Toronto or Dallas trade those guys straight up for PRV? I realize this is futile. Surely I can find some yard work that is more edifying.

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#71 treevojo
May 19 2012, 09:01PM
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DSF wrote:

Hall is a very good winger.

Doesn't matter much unless he plays with a great centre.

Have you noticed the Oilers finished 29th?

Who do you you supposed that is?

Maybe they have an unbalanced lineup?

Well I guess we will have to wait and see if seguin actually becomes a great center. As of right now I wouldn't trade seguin the center for Hopkins the center. I also wouldn't trade seguin the winger for hall the winger. Give the oilers chara and Thomas next year and I think they would make a good run.. Those positions aren't the ones we have been discussing though.

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#72 FastOil
May 19 2012, 09:04PM
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I don't know the ins and outs of why a winger might make a better centre. But I do know that centres control play, and that Messier wanted to be in control and could dominate other players, which is why he made a league all time best centre.

Messier doesn't consider himself a good scorer, but when a player can dominate to that degree, the point total becomes secondary to that fact.

Hall wants to be in charge, takes responsibility for winning. He is chomping on the bit, and is by far the most driven player in the system, perhaps the league, other than Sid.

Based on that, and the fact centres score more points than wingers typically, it makes sense on that level. It seems to me that he may be limited on the wing, and may not be happy in the long term unless an equally capable centre can be found to keep up with him. Toews? Crosby? Who can?

Forwards that want to dominate like that seem to me like natural centres, to control play, to take responsibility. Even minor point production losses becoming irrelevant in respect to winning.

Hall wants to be large and in charge, so let him try at least. So what if they lose ....... MacKinnon. Then I will have had enough. Unless, maybe Ekblad too? When will this sickness stop?

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#73 David S
May 19 2012, 09:07PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

@Bucknuck

Calgary is home for Jordan. Offseason training all centered in C town.

His girlfriend lives lived there too.

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#74 Oilers4ever
May 19 2012, 09:39PM
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Have to say that I disagree with the comment on only Hall being able to have handled more playing time. Hall flies by the seat of his pants for sure (which sometimes gets him into injury trouble). RNH and Ebs are very much cereberal players and especially Ebs with him having realistically more games played than Hall, I think he would have been fine. His stats show that from this year as well. Ebs will be a 50 goal scorer on this team long before anyone else. He could have handled the extra minutes. Their play at the Worlds should have proven this as well.

I also think Hall at center would be a huge mistake. The style of game he plays cannot be done at the center position. You need that explosive winger who can fly like he can. If the Oilers were smart they would be drafting Galchenyuk to give them the center man they need. They don't need another winger. Don't get me wrong, Yaks may be the best (although as many people have pointed out had Galchenyuk not been hurt he could have been right up there with Yaks) but its time to stop drafting the BPA when it doesn't fill a need your team so desperately needs. Galchenyuk or Murray should be their choice.

And as far as the new coach is concerned, if his answers to playing Hall, Ebs, and RNH next season does not equal to 20 min per game then fire him before he's even hired!!

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#75 russ99
May 19 2012, 09:51PM
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Not a fan of the Hall center idea.

How about we flush both Belanger and (maybe via amnesty) Horcoff and bring in a second line center who not only can compete against the toughs, but also contribute regularly on offense.

The problem with the sheltering the Kid Line is there was no other line scoring with regularity, and yes that was partially due to talent, but also partially due to Renney's stubbornness.

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#76 Oilers4ever
May 19 2012, 09:56PM
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Kyle Wellwood holding his own against Gagner... That's a hot one.. I'm laughing.. tell me.. when did Wellwood ever score 4 goals in a game, let alone 8 points in one game. Yeah.. happened only once but at least Gagner did it. Wellwood couldn't hold Gagner's jockstrap so cut the BS shall we....

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#77 Walter Sobchak
May 19 2012, 10:23PM
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"Yes I would. Hall is not going to play many full seasons based on his style of play. If he changes his style he'll become less effective because his shot and play making ability are not at the level of Seguin or Skinner. Don't get me wrong...Hall is a hell of a player...but he was the wrong choice at that time".

"Put Gagner on the third line in LA and watch how many points he gets".

@ DSF

I tend to agree with a lot of what you say, I actually believe you’re an Oilers fan holding the team accountable and see things as how they should be.

Not that I think you’re totally wrong because Hall has to be mindful of his surroundings but I don’t think Halls style of play is as bad as you suggest.As for Hall's shot, he has one of the fastest wrist shots I have ever seen, you dont score goals like he has with a bad shot! Hall's has a shot, I'll give you Seguin's play making.

Mark Messier was a similar player in his youth, as was Glen Anderson. I wouldn’t have drafted different because of the style of play.

As for Gagner, you put any player on a third line roll and there play will diminish, how many goals did Stoll score this year on the third line? 5 maybe 6.

I still think Gagner will be more useful to the Oilers as a trade, but he is effective as a second line center.

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#78 count grishnack
May 20 2012, 12:09AM
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@DSF

Wow are you stupid.

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#79 Oilers G- Nations Poet Laureate
May 20 2012, 12:57AM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

@Bucknuck

Calgary is home for Jordan. Offseason training all centered in C town.

Wanye will be CRUSHED

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#80 Wax Man Riley
May 20 2012, 02:18AM
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Oilers4ever wrote:

Kyle Wellwood holding his own against Gagner... That's a hot one.. I'm laughing.. tell me.. when did Wellwood ever score 4 goals in a game, let alone 8 points in one game. Yeah.. happened only once but at least Gagner did it. Wellwood couldn't hold Gagner's jockstrap so cut the BS shall we....

Kyle Wellwood is smaller, older, has played more games, and scored less points.

Gagner is obviously the better player.

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#81 Aussie Oiler
May 20 2012, 06:51AM
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k.

Horcoff is not going anywhere til AT LEAST THE SUMMER. Get over it.

Hall is not a centre and should not be; let the man be a crazy cat on the wing. Remember a couple seasons ago, when we 'just needed a goal scorer'?!?!

The nice thing about having Mr. Ebs and Mr. Hall, is that if they are on different lines, they provide legitimate scoring chances on the top 2 lines (especially when you factor in Hemmer, Nuge and pick #1).

At the end of the day, do you want Nuge and Hall at centre? Or should we have Nuge and Gags, surrounded by Hall and crown-prince Ebs, taping the sweeeeeeet. sweeeeet passes into the glory hole...?

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#82 Bryzarro World
May 20 2012, 10:44AM
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TwoSkidoos wrote:

He's a western kid, nothing wrong with that. I'm an Oil fan and live in Oil country, but I spend a lot of time in Calgary for work and it's my opinion that Calgary has a lot more to offer than Edmonton by a fair margin.

Without respect to sports teams.

Ya I spent a good chunk living in Calgary too. So what do you think it has to offer? Edm has better shopping, better traffic by FAR, nicer people, better rink, stacked team for future... Etc.

Oh.. Cal has a view of mountains... WOW! Oh.. And a big penis sticking in the sky and a huge case of Toronto envy.

Players usually travel in summer and dont stick around where they play.

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#83 RexLibris
May 20 2012, 11:32AM
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Okay, this has nothing to do with DSF or Gagner but rather potential head coaches.

The Oilers are generally rumoured to be one of the ten leading teams using advanced stats for their player personnel decisions.

Brent Sutter, from I observed and read from Flames fans and Kent Wilson over the course of the year, is not a coach that usually employs those same methods (there were many complaints about zone starts and relative competition, if I recall correctly).

Now, I should probably declare myself as not a Sutter supporter, so I may just be rationalizing to support my own side of the argument, but it would seem incongruous for a management group to spend the time and money of having a dedicated stats team and then employ a head coach that has a history of ignoring that data.

Younger coaches might be more willing to employ, and familiar with, this information. Cooper, Nelson, Eakins, Johnston, and Laxdal all fit that mold more than a Crawford, Sutter, or maybe even MacTavish.

I now return you all to your regularly scheduled troll-slaying...

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#84 Wax Man Riley
May 21 2012, 09:49PM
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Dunkin D wrote:

I agree with everything about DSF. Guy is a major douche. I now skip reading the comments at Lowetide's blog because of him.

NAaaaaahhhh....

DSF keeps this place interesting. He is the Anti-Kool-Aid. He makes me form well-thought out arguments to combat his number cherry-picking ;p

He just comes off a bit abrasive. Take the douche out of the comments, and there is usually something to think about.

Except the Kyle Wellwood argument. I just can't wrap my head around that one.

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