Big Decisions: Taylor Hall over Tyler Seguin

Jonathan Willis
May 20 2012 04:43PM

At the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, the Oilers owned the first overall pick and faced a choice: to draft Taylor Hall, the dynamic left winger who had been the favourite entering the season, or centre Tyler Seguin, who had enjoyed a superb year and was the only other challenger.

They chose Taylor over Tyler. Did they make the right decision?

A year in, the decision looked pretty good. As rookies, Seguin was stuck in a depth role on a very strong Boston Bruins team (he has a Stanley Cup ring now, thanks to the Oilers’ decision) and looked the part – he finished with 22 points in the regular season and his line got outshot badly despite the fact that he was playing for a pretty good team.

Hall meanwhile played a feature role on a miserable Oilers squad, finishing one point out of the team scoring lead despite losing time down the stretch after an ill-advised fight that led to injury.

A year later, things are less clear cut.

Seguin blossomed in his second NHL season, scoring 29 goals and recording 67 points, finishing as the scoring leader on the 102-point Boston Bruins. He had some advantages – the Patrice Bergeron line, as has been the case for a long time in Boston, took on the big defensive zone minutes, but Seguin’s group out-shot and out-scored their opponents.

In Edmonton, Hall also took a step forward, scoring 27 goals and recording 53 points in just 61 games. Not only that, but Hall’s line dominated the shot clock, though he had the same sort of zone start advantages that Seguin enjoyed in Boston. The problem was less with his play than with injury – this is the second season in a row Hall’s year has been cut short. Not only did he suffer a concussion, but he’s undergoing off-season shoulder surgery to repair a problem that’s plagued him since junior.

Did the Oilers make the right decision? The answer to that question isn’t clear, and likely won’t be clear at any point over the next decade, unless injury plays a hand. Hall was the safer choice to carry over his junior performance to the NHL (having a longer track record in junior than Seguin) but Seguin plays a more influential position – centres controlling the game to a greater degree than wingers.

Hall’s a splendid player, and choosing him was a defensible decision. I don’t know how it will turn out over the long run, but it’s not a decision I regret seeing made, and if I had to bet I’d bet on Hall having the higher-end career, and Seguin the longer one.

Note: As has been pointed out in the comments, while Seguin is expected to play centre eventually, he's spent much of his time in Boston on the wing, while David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron have played up the middle.  At this moment in time, both players are wingers.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is Managing Editor of the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He was previously founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca.
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#51 TigerUnderGlass
May 21 2012, 12:19AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I was firmly in the Seguin corner. He was far and away better 5x5 in his draft year and he played Centre. Mix in a wonky shoulder and some mouth breathing and Taylor Hall doesnt seem so attractive. He's a good player, but man am I ever happy we took RNH the next season.

By what measure was he far and away better 5X5 in his draft year?

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#52 Oilcruzer
May 21 2012, 12:34AM
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Frak - they've each played two years as teens and now we're deciding who will have the better career?

Does it matter? Was either a BAD choice? Isn't the point to draft someone who looks to be a long term impact player? (neither is now and each still look like they will be)

It's the Bonsignore's we want to avoid.

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#53 Ryan2
May 21 2012, 01:55AM
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Interesting thread. I have had the same debate over the past year with a lot of people and my question in the end is this: would you rather have Hall and RNH or Seguin and Landeskog? I know I would rather have RNH over Seguin as a centerman, and Hall over Landeskog as a winger. Maybe the Oilers would have gone with RNH a year after drafting Seguin, but I am not sure about that since they would have needed a high end winger or two.

FWIW, looking at the defence and overall team, Hall would have probably put up bigger numbers than Seguin did with the Bruins (as well as the Oilers). My rationale is based on how close Taylor's numbers were in fewer games on a much weaker team. You really can't accurately compare the two right now since Boston is so much stronger. Give it a couple of years when the Oilers are hopefully closer to the Bruins and then we will see which player is more dominant.

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#54 John Chambers
May 21 2012, 07:11AM
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Johe wrote:

Can we all just agree that the Oilers and the Bruins both got fantastic players? Hall is an awesome Oiler, and I'm very happy he plays for us. Seguin is an awesome Bruin. Done.

Amen. What a pointless debate. Hall is a stud. Seguin is money. Both teams did well for themselves.

The biggest loser that day was Brian Burke and the Toronto Maple Leafs. On this I think we can all agree.

Namaste.

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#55 Archaeologuy
May 21 2012, 07:41AM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

By what measure was he far and away better 5X5 in his draft year?

In their draft years Seguin scored 35 goals at evens. Hall scored 22. At the time there was little to seperate the two players. I was impressed by this fact.

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#56 a lg dubl dubl
May 21 2012, 08:21AM
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I still think drafting Murray is the best option long term for the Oilers...yes Yakupov is good and the team needs to have another line that can score other than the kid line, but why not put PRV with Gagner and Hemsky and see what he can do with guys that can put up 50-60pts. IMO it would be easier to sign a winger who could play 2/3rd line mins if PRV doesnt pan out on the 2nd line in FA than a dman like Weber or Suter without a massive overpayment which is what ST shouldnt do with Hall, Eberle, and PRV coming out of thier ELCs and RNH the yr after.

My lines look like this

Hall/RNH/Eberle

PRV,FA/Gagner/Hemsky

Smyth(if resigned),PRV,FA/Horcoff/Jones

Eager/Belanger/Petrell,Harti

Smid/Petry

Whitney/Shultz

Murray,Peckham/Sutton,Tueburt

Oyea I'd still take Hall over Seguin anyday.

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#57 Butters
May 21 2012, 08:26AM
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Intersting, when Hall was with Windsor, people were talking about how he was playing with a stacked team and Sequin was not. Now the situation has reversed and it still looks pretty even.

I would like to see Hall in the playoffs though, that's where we might see the difference. Prior to getting three points in the last two Bruin playoff games, I thought I had heard that Sequin had 1 point in his last 15 playoff games.

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#58 Rose Colored Glasses
May 21 2012, 08:55AM
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Really, have we run out of things to talk about.

2 years in and we are going to start looking back at this.

You can not even compare the picks when the teams are both in different stages.

Quit lookin in the rear view mirror and keeps your eyes on the road.

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#59 DSF
May 21 2012, 09:01AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Well, they have Nugent-Hopkins and Gagner, and if they deal down at this draft they could have a Grigorenko or Galchenyuk in addition.

Gagner was still being sheltered in his 5th season in the league.

Not likely you'll win much when both your top centres need sheltering to that degree,

There's no way the Oilers would have known they could trade down and take a centre way back when they drafted Hall instead of Seguin and I doubt they do that in any case.

Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff and Belanger is likely the worst centre depth in the league.

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#60 OILERSORDEATH
May 21 2012, 09:20AM
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Wouldn't even hesitate to pick Hall again, hands down the better player. If we had to choose twenty times between the two I'd pick Hall twenty more times. He was the BPA and #1.

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#61 Sammy
May 21 2012, 09:24AM
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@DSF

That is why the Oilers finished 30 , 30th and 29th in the last 3 years. That is not an easy task. You must have some serious problems.

They are selling a product with bells and whistles but if you look behind the curtain you find as you say :

"Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff and Belanger is likely the worst centre depth in the league."

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#62 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 09:30AM
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Johe wrote:

Can we all just agree that the Oilers and the Bruins both got fantastic players? Hall is an awesome Oiler, and I'm very happy he plays for us. Seguin is an awesome Bruin. Done.

Agreed, They are so close that it doesn't make sense to nit-pic the decision. If Seguin was ripping up the league and hall was struggling then sure, but not when it's still a coin toss between the two.

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#63 Rama Lama
May 21 2012, 09:51AM
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Hall wins by the simple fact he has the leadership look, desire, and skills which is exactly what this team needs.

I was in the Seguin camp prior to the draft, but now I can see!

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#64 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 09:53AM
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DSF wrote:

Gagner was still being sheltered in his 5th season in the league.

Not likely you'll win much when both your top centres need sheltering to that degree,

There's no way the Oilers would have known they could trade down and take a centre way back when they drafted Hall instead of Seguin and I doubt they do that in any case.

Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff and Belanger is likely the worst centre depth in the league.

Calgary/Columbus/Florida/Montreal/Ottawa/Phoenix/st louis/Toronto/Winnipeg

Good try though

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#65 DSF
May 21 2012, 10:27AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Calgary/Columbus/Florida/Montreal/Ottawa/Phoenix/st louis/Toronto/Winnipeg

Good try though

Really?

Calgary - Jokinen (UFA) - Cervenka - Backlund - Stajan

Columbus - Johansen - Brassard - McKenzie - Boyce - Gillies

Florida - Weiss - Goc - Madden - Santorelli -(Bjugstad and Howden in the bullpen)

Montreal - Plekanec - Desharnais - Eller - Gomez

Ottawa - Spezza - Turris - Smith - Knopka

Phoenix - Vermette - Hanzal - Langkow - Gordon - Chipchura - Brule

STL - Backes - Berglund - Arnott - Nicholl

Toronto - Grabovski - Bozak - Connolly - Lombardi - Steckel

Winnipeg - Little - Wellwood - Antropov - Slater - Burmistrov - Stapleton

While Hopkins is certainly the cream of the crop, I think it would be pretty hard to argue that any of those teams with the possible exception of Calgary, Winnipeg and Toronto would swap their centre group for the Oilers'.

I'm sure every one of them would love to have Hopkins but I don't see Gagner, Horcoff and his contract or Belanger being attractive to any of them.

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#66 TigerUnderGlass
May 21 2012, 10:54AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

In their draft years Seguin scored 35 goals at evens. Hall scored 22. At the time there was little to seperate the two players. I was impressed by this fact.

Hall had 35 EV goals as a 16 year old. What do we make of that?

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#67 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 10:58AM
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DSF wrote:

Really?

Calgary - Jokinen (UFA) - Cervenka - Backlund - Stajan

Columbus - Johansen - Brassard - McKenzie - Boyce - Gillies

Florida - Weiss - Goc - Madden - Santorelli -(Bjugstad and Howden in the bullpen)

Montreal - Plekanec - Desharnais - Eller - Gomez

Ottawa - Spezza - Turris - Smith - Knopka

Phoenix - Vermette - Hanzal - Langkow - Gordon - Chipchura - Brule

STL - Backes - Berglund - Arnott - Nicholl

Toronto - Grabovski - Bozak - Connolly - Lombardi - Steckel

Winnipeg - Little - Wellwood - Antropov - Slater - Burmistrov - Stapleton

While Hopkins is certainly the cream of the crop, I think it would be pretty hard to argue that any of those teams with the possible exception of Calgary, Winnipeg and Toronto would swap their centre group for the Oilers'.

I'm sure every one of them would love to have Hopkins but I don't see Gagner, Horcoff and his contract or Belanger being attractive to any of them.

Yes really. You know you've been busted when you try and squeez contracts into it, after they weren't part of the original discussion.

keep trying to move the goal posts, at least you are good at that

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#68 DSF
May 21 2012, 11:11AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Yes really. You know you've been busted when you try and squeez contracts into it, after they weren't part of the original discussion.

keep trying to move the goal posts, at least you are good at that

Phhhttt...players come with contracts unless they're free agents in which case none of them would be mentioned at all.

Bottom line is the Oilers have a dreadful group of centres with Hoppy, Sam Wellwood, Horcoff and Belanger.

The team would be in much, much better shape if Hopkins and Seguin were anchoring the top two lines.

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#69 oilersplumber
May 21 2012, 11:28AM
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Must be a slow news day. You writer type guys have too much time to think. Lets get to talking about realistic things....... This is like comparing..... Apples to Oranges Grapes to Bananas Wayne to Gordie Harold Ballard to Harold LLoyd My wife to her mother

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#70 jonnyquixote
May 21 2012, 12:10PM
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Any one who would prefer Seguin over Hall right now is spending too much time staring at the GP on the statsheet and not nearly enough time actually watching their games.

Seguin is a damned fine player for his age.

But Hall is a motherf***ing engine.

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#71 Jasmine
May 21 2012, 12:23PM
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@DSF

Seguin isn't even playing centre for Boston. I'd never have taken Seguin #1.

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#72 Wäx Män Riley
May 21 2012, 12:38PM
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DSF wrote:

Gagner was still being sheltered in his 5th season in the league.

Not likely you'll win much when both your top centres need sheltering to that degree,

There's no way the Oilers would have known they could trade down and take a centre way back when they drafted Hall instead of Seguin and I doubt they do that in any case.

Hopkins, Gagner, Horcoff and Belanger is likely the worst centre depth in the league.

Sheltered? Or showcased as trade bait?

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#73 Wäx Män Riley
May 21 2012, 12:42PM
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DSF wrote:

Phhhttt...players come with contracts unless they're free agents in which case none of them would be mentioned at all.

Bottom line is the Oilers have a dreadful group of centres with Hoppy, Sam Wellwood, Horcoff and Belanger.

The team would be in much, much better shape if Hopkins and Seguin were anchoring the top two lines.

Gagner is and will always be a better player and better option than Wellwood. It isn't even close.

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#74 DSF
May 21 2012, 01:02PM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

Gagner is and will always be a better player and better option than Wellwood. It isn't even close.

Really?

Where's the evidence?

Last season:

Gagner - 18G 29A 47P +5

Wellwood - 18G 29A 47P +3

P/60 5V5:

Gagner - 1.96

Wellwood - 2.15

Both players were up against poor competition.

Gagner played 2:27 PPTOI/G while Wellwood played 1:59 PPTOI/G

Looks like a wash to me.

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#75 BlacqueJacque
May 21 2012, 01:02PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

There's not much meat in that - I've already covered the shot metrics and situational play. Seguin's a slightly better scorer this year 5v5, much worse last year, on a /60 basis.

Hall was a top option for an excellent PP, Seguin a top option for a worse power play. Both easily first unit attackers on a /60 basis.

That's it.

As for your other concern - Seguin playing on the wing - you'll note that was addressed ~2 hours before your comment.

Hall scored only 14 goals even-strength. Seguin scored 24. A similar ratio occurs in assists.

Seems like meat to me?

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#76 russ99
May 21 2012, 01:31PM
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I am now a big fan of both Hall and RNH after seeing them play at the NHL level but I wasvery much opposed to both of those picks at the time.

So I think that question should be taken to a different level - especially if the Oilers trade down for or take Murray this year:

Would you pick:

Hall, RNH and Murray or

Seguin, Larsson and Yakupov.

I know which I'd pick...

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#77 dougtheslug
May 21 2012, 02:56PM
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DSF wrote:

Really?

Calgary - Jokinen (UFA) - Cervenka - Backlund - Stajan

Columbus - Johansen - Brassard - McKenzie - Boyce - Gillies

Florida - Weiss - Goc - Madden - Santorelli -(Bjugstad and Howden in the bullpen)

Montreal - Plekanec - Desharnais - Eller - Gomez

Ottawa - Spezza - Turris - Smith - Knopka

Phoenix - Vermette - Hanzal - Langkow - Gordon - Chipchura - Brule

STL - Backes - Berglund - Arnott - Nicholl

Toronto - Grabovski - Bozak - Connolly - Lombardi - Steckel

Winnipeg - Little - Wellwood - Antropov - Slater - Burmistrov - Stapleton

While Hopkins is certainly the cream of the crop, I think it would be pretty hard to argue that any of those teams with the possible exception of Calgary, Winnipeg and Toronto would swap their centre group for the Oilers'.

I'm sure every one of them would love to have Hopkins but I don't see Gagner, Horcoff and his contract or Belanger being attractive to any of them.

You see, DSF, this is why you have no friends, have been banned by your World of Warcraft guild, and spend your days down in your mother's basement wondering why you keep getting C minuses on those poli-sci papers, when you are sure they are worth at least an A. You have no idea how to construct an argument, invariably confuse opinion with fact, ignore those inconvenient bits of data that undermine your biased viewpoint, and revert to invective and noise when your silly statements are exposed for what they are: the ravings of sad, strange little troll. I particularly love this example: "It would be pretty hard to argue that ANY of these teams, with THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF CALGARY, WINNIPEG, and TORONTO..." In other words, a full third of the teams mentioned. WTF?

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#78 Archaeologuy
May 21 2012, 03:38PM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

Hall had 35 EV goals as a 16 year old. What do we make of that?

Angelo Esposito was a pretty good 16 year old too.

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#79 Wäx Män Riley
May 21 2012, 04:14PM
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DSF wrote:

Really?

Where's the evidence?

Last season:

Gagner - 18G 29A 47P +5

Wellwood - 18G 29A 47P +3

P/60 5V5:

Gagner - 1.96

Wellwood - 2.15

Both players were up against poor competition.

Gagner played 2:27 PPTOI/G while Wellwood played 1:59 PPTOI/G

Looks like a wash to me.

Gagner. 5'10" 191lbs born 1989. 366gp 220pts

Wellwood. 5'10" 180lbs born 1983. 450gp 220pts

Gagner. All. Day. Long.

Younger, bigger, better player.

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#80 Walter Sobchak
May 21 2012, 04:15PM
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@a lg dubl dubl

Murray being the best option long term for the Oilers! That's rich!

Just a couple of issues here with your long term plan. Paajarvi will never be a second line scoring winger it's just not happening, no mater how much Oilers fans want it.

Hemsky will be gone in a year and a half and the Oilers are not resigning him for more money! That's a fact! So, that leaves two holes in your second scoring line in the not to distant future.

Where are you going to find that winger who can possible put up anywhere from 30-40 goals per year? There just soo easy to find!

People need to realize that Murray is NOT an elite defensmen! He will take as long as Smid has to develop! then your still only left with a 2/3 defensmen at best.

Yakupov will be an imidiate help and has bigger upside long term, not to mention will have massive trade value should the Oilers not be able to get the defensmen they need.

Like you said, the Oilers need secondary scoring. IMO as bad as they need a top defensmen.

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#81 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 05:08PM
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DSF wrote:

Phhhttt...players come with contracts unless they're free agents in which case none of them would be mentioned at all.

Bottom line is the Oilers have a dreadful group of centres with Hoppy, Sam Wellwood, Horcoff and Belanger.

The team would be in much, much better shape if Hopkins and Seguin were anchoring the top two lines.

PPG for the 4 highest scoring centers on the team (from NHL.com) includes games from previous team if a player was acquired mid season:

Oilers .503ppg

Florida .431

Canucks .523

Sabres .454

BJ's .375

Habs .541

Coyotes .421

NJ .544

Blues .424

Leafs .544

Stars .396

Jets .527

Ducks .482

Sure theirs more to it then that, but that's by far and away the most important piece.

I see 3 division winners (far) below the oil on that metric, and their are a few other good teams that aren't much better then the above.

There are enough legitimate weakness about the oil that can be pointed out, no need for you to make up new ones that aren't even correct.

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#82 DSF
May 21 2012, 07:43PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

PPG for the 4 highest scoring centers on the team (from NHL.com) includes games from previous team if a player was acquired mid season:

Oilers .503ppg

Florida .431

Canucks .523

Sabres .454

BJ's .375

Habs .541

Coyotes .421

NJ .544

Blues .424

Leafs .544

Stars .396

Jets .527

Ducks .482

Sure theirs more to it then that, but that's by far and away the most important piece.

I see 3 division winners (far) below the oil on that metric, and their are a few other good teams that aren't much better then the above.

There are enough legitimate weakness about the oil that can be pointed out, no need for you to make up new ones that aren't even correct.

Hey Bud, I was using the teams YOU suggested.

And you're right, there is more to it than that...like being able to keep the puck out of your own net.

By your metric, the Leafs have much better centre depth than the Oilers (because they score more) but I don't think you would find one expert hockey guy who thinks the Leafs don't need to address the centre position.

If the Leafs are that bad, and the Oilers are worse, draw your own conclusions.

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#83 DSF
May 21 2012, 07:48PM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

Gagner. 5'10" 191lbs born 1989. 366gp 220pts

Wellwood. 5'10" 180lbs born 1983. 450gp 220pts

Gagner. All. Day. Long.

Younger, bigger, better player.

Yeah, those extra 11 pounds make all the difference in the world.

Get back to me when Gagner actually outscores a 29 year old, former 5th round draft pick who plays for $700k a season.

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#84 TigerUnderGlass
May 21 2012, 08:14PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Angelo Esposito was a pretty good 16 year old too.

You're right. All great 16 year old players will turn into Esposito.

Saying Seguin was far and away better is disingenuous, and throwing out Hall's 16 year old numbers because one guy failed once is absurd.

We have no TOI numbers to compare, but we do know that Hall was capable of Seguin's EV goal scoring numbers two years younger than Seguin was. This means something, whether you wish to admit it or not. We also know that Hall was on a much much deeper team than Seguin in their draft year.

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#85 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 08:17PM
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DSF wrote:

Hey Bud, I was using the teams YOU suggested.

And you're right, there is more to it than that...like being able to keep the puck out of your own net.

By your metric, the Leafs have much better centre depth than the Oilers (because they score more) but I don't think you would find one expert hockey guy who thinks the Leafs don't need to address the centre position.

If the Leafs are that bad, and the Oilers are worse, draw your own conclusions.

I suggested a handful of teams that werent overly deep down the middle. Further reaserch showed a lot more.

Anyway, your bluff has been called. The center depth of the oil is no where near worst in the league.

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#86 DSF
May 21 2012, 08:26PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I suggested a handful of teams that werent overly deep down the middle. Further reaserch showed a lot more.

Anyway, your bluff has been called. The center depth of the oil is no where near worst in the league.

Its damn close.

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#87 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 08:27PM
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DSF wrote:

Yeah, those extra 11 pounds make all the difference in the world.

Get back to me when Gagner actually outscores a 29 year old, former 5th round draft pick who plays for $700k a season.

Hey, wellwood had a solid season as the 4rth highest scoring forward on a team that was in the playoff race until the last week or so, good for him.

Doesn't change the fact that Gagner is rounding into a good 2C, or that he's had a better career then wellwood./p>

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#88 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 08:32PM
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DSF wrote:

Its damn close.

If your definition of damn close is bottom 6-8 then I guess.

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#89 DSF
May 21 2012, 09:03PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

If your definition of damn close is bottom 6-8 then I guess.

The differences between those 6-8 teams is so close that being a member of the group is hardly case for celebration.

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#90 DSF
May 21 2012, 09:04PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Hey, wellwood had a solid season as the 4rth highest scoring forward on a team that was in the playoff race until the last week or so, good for him.

Doesn't change the fact that Gagner is rounding into a good 2C, or that he's had a better career then wellwood./p>

Same player.

Small, weak, easy to knock off the puck, great hands.

Nothing to see here.

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#91 Wäx Män Riley
May 21 2012, 09:43PM
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@DSF

Did you miss the spot where I pointed out that Gagner HAS OUTSCORED Wellwood:

366gp 220pts vs 450gp 220pts

That is outscoring.

If Gagner goes the next 84 games without a point, I will concede. But I would take Gagner on my team about 3 draft rounds sooner than I take Wellwood.

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#92 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 09:48PM
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DSF wrote:

The differences between those 6-8 teams is so close that being a member of the group is hardly case for celebration.

Except they are far ahead of a handful of teams and then really close to another 6-8.

So arguably not even bottom 10.

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#93 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 21 2012, 09:49PM
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DSF wrote:

Same player.

Small, weak, easy to knock off the puck, great hands.

Nothing to see here.

All irrelevant.

Proven 2C, that's all that matters.

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#94 Archaeologuy
May 21 2012, 09:58PM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

You're right. All great 16 year old players will turn into Esposito.

Saying Seguin was far and away better is disingenuous, and throwing out Hall's 16 year old numbers because one guy failed once is absurd.

We have no TOI numbers to compare, but we do know that Hall was capable of Seguin's EV goal scoring numbers two years younger than Seguin was. This means something, whether you wish to admit it or not. We also know that Hall was on a much much deeper team than Seguin in their draft year.

Hey now, I'm not flying off the handle here. Hall had a track record of high level play. Thats nice, but its not the be all end all. And like you said, Hall played on a deep team, Seguin didnt have anybody to inflate his stats for him.

The Esposito thing is just a reminder that nice 16yr old seasons dont mean a whole heck of a lot. By the EV strength scoring metric Hall was regressing, not getting more dominant.

He's a decent player. Certainly not a bust at #1. But will he go down in history as the best player from his draft year? I'm not convinced.

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#95 50 in 39
May 21 2012, 09:59PM
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@DSF

With that type of in-depth player analysis I am not sure why you don't just go be a pro scout rather than trolling ON.

Gagner has superior numbers as has already been pointed out, was baptized by fire into the NHL at 18 years old and is still four years away from entering the prime of his career. Wellwood has been in the prime of his career for two years now and can't even stick with a team.

If you don't like Gagner fine but your comparison is horrible as usual.

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#96 book¡e
May 22 2012, 08:24AM
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Oh my - didn't you see the sign "Don't feed the DSF". Its all he really wants is for people to jump on board and 'debate' with him.

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#98 Quicksilver ballet
May 22 2012, 09:57AM
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DSF does make some valid points though...

According to Steve Tambellini, the Oilers are the best long term last place club ever. When will he start looking at this roster honestly?

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#99 TigerUnderGlass
May 22 2012, 10:55AM
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@Archaeologuy

Hall played on a deep team, Seguin didnt have anybody to inflate his stats for him....By the EV strength scoring metric Hall was regressing

Deep teams mean lower ev totals, not higher. It's all about playing time. It's a lot easier to put up number as the big fish in a small pond than it is to be the best player on a stacked team.

16yr old seasons dont mean a whole heck of a lot.

Of course they mean something. Are you suggesting that players regularly score like that as 16 year olds and fail? One example shows nothing. You may as well say teams should try and avoid picking 1st overall because Stefan failed therefore being picked first overall doesn't mean a heck of a lot.

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#100 Archaeologuy
May 22 2012, 11:12AM
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@TigerUnderGlass

You dont draft 16 year olds. Most dont get to play all that much in the CHL. Taylor Hall did. Great for him. But if he isnt separating himself in his draft year then I wont make a fake argument that the 16 yr old season matters more than the most recent one. It doesnt. Unless player X didnt play in his 17yr old season then there isnt any reason to reference what they did as 16 yr olds.

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