Organizational need is a bad way to draft players

Jonathan Willis
May 22 2012 03:58PM

If the Edmonton Oilers decide to make organizational need the primary criteria at this year’s NHL Entry Draft, they would be making a mistake.

As Robin Brownlee has been making clear, organizational need is part of the conversation. Here’s the quote he got from Stu MacGregor a little over a week ago:

I think (GM) Steve Tambellini was pretty clear that, you know, maybe we do have to make an organizational decision…

And here’s Brownlee this morning on the significance of that comment:

What struck me in my last conversation with MacGregor was his reference to Tambellini making it clear that organizational need is a factor that has to be considered, as opposed to taking the garden variety BPA. This is the first time I remember MacGregor making that reference regarding Tambellini or Lowe. Might "organizational need" bump Sarnia centre Alex Galchenyuk or defensemen Ryan Murray or Griffin Reinhart ahead of winger Nail Yakupov or am I just reading between the lines and seeing something that isn't there?

Organizational Need

Which organizational need is more pressing – defense, centre or wing? In terms of the 2012 Oilers, clearly defense is the biggest need to be addressed, followed by centre, followed by wing. Based on need alone, that top pick at the draft should be a defenseman.

But then there’s another question – how likely is the player drafted to fill the hole, and how soon will he do it?

Ryan Murray is the consensus top defender in the draft, at the lead of a tightly grouped pack that includes Mathew Dumba, Morgan Rielly, Jacob Trouba and Griffin Reinhart. Murray’s polished, well-rounded, and mature, but lacks high-end offensive skills. If the Oilers are looking for a replacement for Chris Pronger, Murray’s probably not the guy. If they’re looking for a guy who can be Kevin Lowe (the comparable that Red Line Report uses), eventually, than maybe he is.

There’s a lot of value in that sort of player, the kind of guy who can play big minutes for 15-20 years. It typically takes a bit of time for that player to develop; certainly it would be unreasonable to expect Murray to take on that sort of load immediately. In Chicago, cornerstone defenders Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook were both older than the club’s young star forwards – does it make sense to place the hopes for the blue line on a defender younger than Eberle, Hall and Nugent-Hopkins?

On the other hand, if the Oilers opted for a centre – Alex Galchenyuk or Mikhail Grigorenko – they could expect some significant offensive production right away. Likely, that centre would slot into the spot Sam Gagner occupies now, freeing up Gagner to be dealt as the centerpiece of a package for a young defenseman. That young defenseman would likely be better in the short-term (the next season or two) than Murray will be.  From a rebuilding perspective, drafting a centre might make more sense than drafting a rearguard.

Asset Management

But, then again, maybe it just makes more sense to take the consensus choice. Nail Yakupov, according to nearly every service out there, is the best available player in this year’s draft. Some experts have been more effusive in their praise – legendary coach Scotty Bowman went so far as to compare Yakupov to Pavel Bure.

Is Nail Yakupov’s trade value going to be higher than Ryan Murray’s a year from now if Yakupov performs as expected in his rookie season? If it is, does it perhaps make more sense to draft Yakupov, attempt to address the defense through trade or free agency this summer, and take stock in a year? If Yakupov seems compares favourably to Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle a year from now, might one of the latter two players be dealt for a defenseman? If so, what caliber of defender would one of them bring back in trade?

For that reason, more than any other, I oppose drafting a player based on team need. If Yakupov turns out as good as everyone seems to think he will, then it shouldn’t be too difficult to pry a high-end defenseman out of another team in exchange for his services (or those of Hall, or those of Eberle, should that make more sense).

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 Reg Dunlop
May 22 2012, 09:11PM
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@ DSF

You just do it, you know. Its easy. As soon as we need that player, BOOM, its done.

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#52 Harv
May 22 2012, 09:15PM
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Really why not try trading #1 pick and Landers for OEL. Phoenix does need scoring up front.

Instead of picking a Dman first in the draft.

You get a potential #1 D-man .

Where am I wrong?

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#53 ralph_u
May 22 2012, 10:25PM
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If it was me I would trade pick. I would trade for Hamilton from Boston. Heard they would like to dump salary like Krejci, perfect lets make a deal. Say Whitney and first for Krejci and Hamilton.

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#54 Reg Dunlop
May 22 2012, 10:35PM
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I think our 1st plus for OEL would be a bold move to improve our team immediately and combined with a free agent signing or two could lead to playoff contention next season. Me like, therefore it has no chance of happening.

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#55 The Soup Fascist
May 22 2012, 10:40PM
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Harv wrote:

Really why not try trading #1 pick and Landers for OEL. Phoenix does need scoring up front.

Instead of picking a Dman first in the draft.

You get a potential #1 D-man .

Where am I wrong?

I am likely in the minority but that seems like an overpayment. A concensus 1st overall and a very good prospect for a Dman with 32 points and "the potential" to be a number 1?

Seems to be a lot of love for OEL and he is oK but wow, I just don't see it.

In OELs draft year the #1 is Tavares who was pretty much consensus. Would you trade Tavares for OEL? Tavares is a stud on a bad team. Would OEL be more impactful than Tavares? So why would he be better than Yak?

Again, not hating on OEL, just not sure one decent season rockets his worth that high.

Edit: sorry reg, posted without reading yours. Not trying to pee on your shoes just not in sync today. Guessing my suggestion of our 1st for the negotiating rights to Dustin Penner is not in your wheelhouse either? LOL

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#56 DSF
May 22 2012, 11:03PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

@ DSF

You just do it, you know. Its easy. As soon as we need that player, BOOM, its done.

Oh yeah.

Right on cue.

Exactly when the Oilers need one.

Happens all the time.

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#57 beezkneez
May 22 2012, 11:14PM
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The truth is no matter how much better the scouting gets, no one really knows how much ceiling these players have. I remember reading in Stamkos draft year that he is not close to the level of Crosby and Ovechkin (at the time) in terms of skill level and upside, Now four years later he's one of a select few that can be mentioned with Crosby and in my eyes has surpassed Ovi in terms of overall impact in games.

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#58 DSF
May 22 2012, 11:27PM
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David S wrote:

You don't. Instead you offer a filthy, dirty, greasy overpay to a quality FA with the cap room we have.

But seriously. Even if we only upgraded the bottom end of our D to "average NHL quality" we'd see a huge improvement.

Nope.

The Oilers already have 5 or 6 bottom pairing defensemen.

Adding 2 or 3 more won't make any difference.

Any team that runs Smid and Petry as their top pairing will get killed.

And, there are no top pairing defensemen to send a filthy, dirty, greasy overpay to.

Unless you think Suter will sign with the Oilers.

He won't.

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#59 DSF
May 22 2012, 11:40PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Draft Yakupov, and make a huge draft day trade for Galchenyuk! The real great thing about Galchenyuk is he can play RW as well. You just drafted BPA and need.

Garrison and Schultz as UFA's, Klefbom the year after, two years the Oilers are playing in the playoffs. It's time Tambellini did some hard work!

Trade who for Galchenyuk?

Florida will likely re-sign Garrison and word is Shultz has already chosen Vancouver.

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#60 OilPen
May 22 2012, 11:48PM
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The Soup Fascist wrote:

I am likely in the minority but that seems like an overpayment. A concensus 1st overall and a very good prospect for a Dman with 32 points and "the potential" to be a number 1?

Seems to be a lot of love for OEL and he is oK but wow, I just don't see it.

In OELs draft year the #1 is Tavares who was pretty much consensus. Would you trade Tavares for OEL? Tavares is a stud on a bad team. Would OEL be more impactful than Tavares? So why would he be better than Yak?

Again, not hating on OEL, just not sure one decent season rockets his worth that high.

Edit: sorry reg, posted without reading yours. Not trying to pee on your shoes just not in sync today. Guessing my suggestion of our 1st for the negotiating rights to Dustin Penner is not in your wheelhouse either? LOL

OEL is a #1 dman. Check the TOI/G for a final four team. He's playing more than yandle and Morris.

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#61 Devolution
May 22 2012, 11:49PM
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Truth wrote:

If one wins a prize and can choose between a $100,000.00 boat and a $60,000.00 car, but they already own a $100,000.00 boat and no car, I think everyone (with any common sense) takes the boat and sells it or trades it for a ~$100,000.00 car or equivalent. An even better idea would be to take the boat, test drive it a bit, and then choose to keep the better one.

Common sense, you would think.

This is a perfect metaphor, well said.

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#62 Walter Sobchak
May 22 2012, 11:49PM
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DSF wrote:

Trade who for Galchenyuk?

Florida will likely re-sign Garrison and word is Shultz has already chosen Vancouver.

Where's the link that says that about Schultz? Look on Schultz facebook page shows Edmonton as his favorite city! Hmmm.

Garrison is NOT signing with FLA before July first! Your off your head if you think he's leaving money on the table! That's rich! I can sit here and give you about ten players they could package to NYI plus picks so don't say it can't be done.

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#63 Wäx Män Riley
May 23 2012, 12:44AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Where's the link that says that about Schultz? Look on Schultz facebook page shows Edmonton as his favorite city! Hmmm.

Garrison is NOT signing with FLA before July first! Your off your head if you think he's leaving money on the table! That's rich! I can sit here and give you about ten players they could package to NYI plus picks so don't say it can't be done.

I am firmly in the camp that believes that making that type of trade (Burke, 1999) can happen, but only under extraordinary circumstances and very rarely.

SO, Quicks 2.0 *

Make me an offer. One that you think can actually benefit both teams. I don't see it happening, but make one that makes me think....If I am (insert trade team here), I look at that and say. "Yup. I'd do it."

Not only you, but anyone on ON. What does it take to get that 2nd pick?

*fwiw, Quicks, this team would be better with both Taylor AND Tyler by giving up anyone not named Eberle or RNH.

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#64 The Soup Fascist
May 23 2012, 01:06AM
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OilPen wrote:

OEL is a #1 dman. Check the TOI/G for a final four team. He's playing more than yandle and Morris.

And he just finished a series as your #1 D man where in 5 GP he went 0-0-0 and was a stellar -4. Not exactly Brian Leetch in 94, yet.

Look I am sure the kid will be a fine NHL defenceman. All I am saying is why would you trade a concensus #1 overall for a kid who scored 32 points one year and plays more minutes than a slumping Keith Yandle (who IMO tailed off since the all star break) and Derek Morris who is 100 years old and has the footspeed of a houseplant? And guys want to throw in a Lander or another prospect to boot. I don't get it.

He isn't an extremely physical or hulking D-man. He is playing at 190 lbs. He isn't going to be Shea Weber.

Again, I don't dislike the kid. He is a promising 21 year old D-man (I know he isn't 21 yet, close enough). But I don't think projecting him to be the second coming of Lidstrom is prudent just yet. If you are going to trade away a concensus #1 under the guise of helping the team immediately then go after a 24 or 25 year old with a little more of a track record.

I know there are a lot of guys who think OEL is a generational player. He may be. I just am not prepared to say that yet - or sell the farm based on one good season.

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#65 TM8Trent
May 23 2012, 01:50AM
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I actually disagree with the idea that a team would sign a #1 overall draft pick (or any player really) for the intent to develop them then move them. I think that would set the tone of the organization of one that doesn't want to develop and retain players for the long haul, and commit to them.

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#66 Sox and Oil
May 23 2012, 07:34AM
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Instead of trading down from a probable sure thing in Yakupov for magic bean defensemen. What are thoughts on trading the pick for a dman like Slava Voynov and Bernier package? Not enough, too much?

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#67 michael
May 23 2012, 08:31AM
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The Oilers need to be patient. This team will get better with additions and subtractions. Add Yakupov. Add Hartikainen. Add Lander. Subtract Belanger.Hordichuk,and Barker.

The draft will see alot of changes here in Etown.

BTW. A thank you from DL is in order for ST for not taking back Smyth/ Frasergate. He had the caproom then to get Carter. and lookee lookee who scored the OT winner last night. Pancake Penner. Thank u ST.

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#68 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 23 2012, 08:31AM
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@ DSF

If you look at most elite players that have been traded, they typically go for a packed of inferior players and picks.

That said, I think most realize it's a long shot and would be ok giving up one of the top 4 assets for a proven star Dmen with lots of years left in his prime.

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#69 The Soup Fascist
May 23 2012, 08:43AM
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@ Wes Mantooth

Not to be a negative Nelly, but I think most would agree the Oilers defence (and perhaps goaltending) is their most glaring missing piece. Not sure how trading our best young defenseman who just seems to be coming into his own helps the cause? Throwing in a good goaltending prospect and depth center is not moving forward either.

You will have an exciting team that is a danger to score - unfortunately more of a threat in our own zone I fear. I would take Yak and try to sign a good free agent D man Matt Carle or Justin Schultz. But I likely have the same credentials to be a GM as you, so who knows.

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#70 The Beaker
May 23 2012, 09:23AM
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Guys, I love the draft and all this dreaming as much as the next guy but I think the love for undrafted prospects has become an epidemic in oil country. I'm all for drafting Yakapov unless someone sends us a package that includes some top end young talent (at center and/or defense) and blows our socks off.

But can we all agree that this team DOES NOT need to trade flesh and blood production for picks and/or more prospects? (With the caveat that of course if someone was going to do something stupid and overpay us by a long shot then of course we have to).

Can we also agree that whale hunting should also not be in the cards? I love Shea Weber as much as the next guy but I'm not sure it's possible to pull that off, especially not while handicapping this team for the future.

Let's continue to focus on drafting well and finding other ways to surround our young core (Hall, RNH, Eberle, 1st overall, and I'd definitely include Petry) with quality NHL players that actually have a function/role that they are good at.

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#71 The Beaker
May 23 2012, 09:29AM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

I'm, really not for trading one of the top players on our roster right now. We obviously arent trading RNH. I still think Hall is actually the best out of the three and the only way he goes is if we believe his injury troubles are a real significant concern. I'd be heartbroken as Wanye if Eberle went anywhere though honestly he may be the one to trade.

In all honesty, if we were trading that talent, in my mind its the 1st overall or Yakapov after we draft him and I am not knowledgable enough about Yakapov to say whether that is just idiotic yet or not. I suppose it ALWAYS depends on wht the return is. I just dont see a scenario where trading for a stud DMAN who is 24-28ish works in our favor unless we are at the stage where we are looking at trying to win a playoff round or two.

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#72 OIL4LIFE
May 23 2012, 10:00AM
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@ The Beaker

Mark my words if this team trades Eberle it will be the biggest mistake of this decade for the Oilers. He has possibly the best vision on the team. He is an Oilers fan, he loves playing here, and he is one of the biggest crowd pleasers. Nothing says "don't sign with that s@#$ hole team" like trading the great players that like playing in the frozen north. aka Edmonton.

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#73 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 23 2012, 10:04AM
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@ The Beaker

Hey, I don't want to trade any of them either, but if Eric Karlsson or an extended Shea Webber is coming back, then so be it.

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#74 madjam
May 23 2012, 10:10AM
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Is there much talk of Jersey looking to trade their pick ? What do we have to offer them for their pick ?

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#75 The Beaker
May 23 2012, 10:11AM
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If we are trading away Smid or Petry (I agree you have to give up things to get things) how are we fixing this defense anytime soon?

In my mind we have:

#1-2 DMAN = None... Maybe Petry as a #2 guy if development continues in just the right way.

#3-4 DMAN = Smid, Petry, Whitney (who could have been a good #2ish if he stayed healthy but who could just as easily be a 5-6 guy now)

#5-7 DMAN = Schultz (Up on level if necessary), Sutton, Potter, Peckham. Take your pick from the development system maybe... Fedun, Teubert, Who knows how far Klefbom or Musil or those types are or how they will develop.

I think a reasonable expectation for a D line up looks like this for next year:

Garrison type addition - Petry

Smid - Whitney

Shultz - Sutton

Potter/Peckham for 7-8's

Fedun, Teubert, etc for call ups

----------------------------------------

Really for that to look respectable I think we need at minimum another guy who can play top four or just big shutdown minutes. If we took out Smid or Petry we need to have a hell of a plan to replace them.

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#76 The Beaker
May 23 2012, 10:17AM
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@OIL4LIFE

Agreed, Eberle is my personal favorite out of the bunch, his is the Jersey I bought.

@ OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F I wouldnt even do that for Karlsson at this point I dont think. He is way too crappy in his own zone. I'd rather keep the scoring depth that those kids give us then lose scoring depth and get a one dimensional Dman who wont keep up the pace he scored at this year. Dont get me wrong the kid would look good in Oiler silks just not the way to go IMHO. And Weber isnt a good idea unless we are playing to win NOW as he could just ask for a trade or head to free agency at will really. He has to want to be part of this team and I dont think a guy like him will want to be until we are better.

@madjam

MP and the entire octane squad.

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#77 vetinari
May 23 2012, 10:40AM
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Take Yakupov-- he's the BPA and it's as simple as that. If a team comes to you after the draft and says, I'll trade you Murray (or Galchenyuk or Dumba or whatever centre or defenseman you like in this year's draft) straight up for Yakupov, would you? If the answer is yes, then that is the player you should have taken 1st overall anyways. If the answer is no, then take Yakupov and see if you can swing a trade with that team sometime during the draft.

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#78 Bucknuck
May 23 2012, 10:59AM
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I wonder if Gagner and the oilers 31st pick would get you in the top eight to snag one of those high end defensive prospects. And then I think about Gagner and what he brings to the table and I wonder if the Oilers would be stupid to make that trade for a "maybe". If I am Tambellini I don't think I make that trade.

I look at Rick Nash and wonder who will trade for that guy with that ridiculous contract (7.8M until 2018). whenever I see his name in trade speculation people never seem to take that into account. I would be shocked if someone took on that salary without unloading an albatross of a contract back the other way.

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#79 madjam
May 23 2012, 11:06AM
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With our salary woes as well as contracts at present time , i see little wiggle room this year except to hold onto draft pick and try to open room for even more draft picks by dealing veteran personnel . If L.A. wins cup we get an additional second round pick - GO L.A. ! Is Trouba as good a pick as Yakupov ? Seems like a lot of good picks in top ten or more that could end up being the best pick this season . Would Pens be interested in dealing Malkin to us ? How about Nash ?

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#80 Bucknuck
May 23 2012, 11:08AM
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madjam wrote:

With our salary woes as well as contracts at present time , i see little wiggle room this year except to hold onto draft pick and try to open room for even more draft picks by dealing veteran personnel . If L.A. wins cup we get an additional second round pick - GO L.A. ! Is Trouba as good a pick as Yakupov ? Seems like a lot of good picks in top ten or more that could end up being the best pick this season . Would Pens be interested in dealing Malkin to us ? How about Nash ?

please not Nash. Not unless they take the Horcoff contract of our hands in the process.

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#81 RexLibris
May 23 2012, 12:25PM
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@Lochenzo

Galchenyuk would almost certainly have to return to junior for a season. Which is why, if the Oilers were to draft him, I don't believe they would trade away Gagner at the same draft.

Considering our upcoming influx of second contracts, having this year's pick, if it were Galchenyuk, spend one more year in junior, would probably be a big help for the team's cap structure as well.

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#82 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 12:35PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

@ Wes Mantooth - Team Yakupov

Jezus man, the Jackets TRADE UP to draft Murray and then we trade all of that for the 5th overall pick?? I think you need to check the typical quality of player you get in the 5 slot.

Common' man!!

It's part of the package of trading with the Jackets you get the second and fifth, the best best players available!

Tell me exactly what I gave up in that proposals?.... Gagner!!! Petry was in the freakin AHL last year! Bunz is not even in the NHL? Paajarvi plays in the AHL!!

Gagner is the only player of substance traded!

Galchenyuk is projecting to be as just about as good as RNH

Yakupov is projecting to be as good as Hall.

Common man!!! You only shot your mouth off because the trade is likely never going to happen you thought you could sound smart.

Keep the same team, see where it takes you next year. Time will tell but Galchenyuk will be better then Gagner, I think you need to examine what type of players are taken after number 1.

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#83 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 23 2012, 12:47PM
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Wes Mantooth - Team Yakupov

I shot my mouth off because the BJ's would be retarded to trade up and take Murray and because you vastly overate the quality of player typically available at 5.

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#84 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 12:48PM
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@The Soup Fascist

Petry is far from being our best defensive prospect! Good yes, but far from the best the Oilers have.

Defensmen are easier to come by, the Oilers have an abundance of 3/4 defensmen trading one won't hurt any cause.

As for the goaltender Bunz is at least 2 years away at best, who's a better goalie in the future Bunz or Roy? Can you tell me that?

Will a competent goalie be on the market in a year from now?

As for Gagner, Galchenyuk projects to be a far better player around the 5th spot.

Not sure if that trade will happen, but I think people tend to over value the players we have.

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#85 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 12:56PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Wes Mantooth - Team Yakupov

I shot my mouth off because the BJ's would be retarded to trade up and take Murray and because you vastly overate the quality of player typically available at 5.

Actually, most of the scouts say Galchenyuk could have been as high as two maybe even number one had he not got hurt I don't believe I'm over valuing anybody.

Why would the Jackets be retarded if the take Murray? Who else would they pick?

But, hey. I'm not here to argue, I was asked a simple trade proposal and would it make sense for both teams.

If there's a player that doesn't make sense to the jackets then how about your version?

It's easy to poach on others ideas where's yours?

Remember that Pronger was traded for Brewer and two prospects plus picks if I'm not mistaken.

EDIT;

The Oilers NHL team is terrible!! The only bright spot has been the kids! At some point the Oilers are going to have to start dealing some of there prospects or stand to loose them for nothing anyways.

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#86 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 23 2012, 01:07PM
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@ Wes

Theirs no guarantee Galenchuk is there at 5, if he's as good as you believe he'll likely be long gone.

It's retarded for the BJ's to trade up and grab Murray, because they could just grab him at #2

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#87 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 01:15PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Galchenyuk has a chance to be better than Tyler Seguin. I like Wes's train of thought. Sell the farm for both Yakupov and Galchenyuk.

Gagner,Paajarvi and Smid may be enough to tempt the Isles. The Islanders have been doing this rebuild thing for a dozen yrs now and may see the benifits of getting 3 bodies now to help their current roster. The Oilers are 3 yrs from going anywhere as far as the playoffs go. The Islanders are in a little different situation. New York is the team the Oilers should be focused on if this is at all a possibilty.

Nothing wrong with fighting like hell to help your own cause/team.

I'm with you, fight like hell to move up and make the team better!

The only issue with that trade as I see it are the Islanders have two pretty good center's actually there both better the Gagner.

Paajarvi and Smid are good but the Islanders need a couple of things more. The Islanders are looking for defensmen and a goalie.

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#88 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 01:21PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Yes, I guess, I should have explained that better, the Oilers have to project there taking Murray and will be moving down to take Yakupov instead to facilitate the trade for the fifth. Everything I have read leads me to believe that Montreal will take Grigorenko, they are extremely high on him.

The Islanders are desperate for defensmen and have two really good centers already in Nielsen and some dude named Tavaras.

That leaves 5 wide open.

So what happens if Galchenyuk does get taken? Then the Oilers get there defensmen anyways so it's a win either way.

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#89 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 23 2012, 01:25PM
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@ Wes

Ah, so we're going to trick them into thinking we want the inferior player, so they give us something else and then they take the inferior player.

"Then the Oilers get there defensmen anyways so it's a win either way."

Except the odds of that player being better then Gagner (let alone Gagner + Petry +) is only +/- 35%

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#90 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 01:32PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

@ Wes

Ah, so we're going to trick them into thinking we want the inferior player, so they give us something else and then they take the inferior player.

"Then the Oilers get there defensmen anyways so it's a win either way."

Except the odds of that player being better then Gagner (let alone Gagner + Petry +) is only +/- 35%

At some point, whether it's at the draft or during the season, Gagner or Hemsky WILL be moved as they are the Oilers best options for trade.

We have a lot of 3/4 defensmen in the system, Petry is not a huge deal.

Anyways, I'm done with this, the question was asked who would I trade from the Oilers to get an extra pick. I think we both know it's very unlikely but something has to be done to move forward, this team is a 30th place team for a reason.

I stand by the fact I think the Oilers need to move up in the draft and eveluate what the really have on this roster. I think the Oilers need both Yakupov and Galchenyuk more then they need a defensmen you can find through trade or UFA

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#91 The Soup Fascist
May 23 2012, 02:01PM
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@ Wes Mantooth

Petry is far from being our best defensive prospect! Good yes, but far from the best the Oilers have.

OK. WHICH D-MEN 23 YRS OLD OR YOUNGER DO YOU HAVE TRENDING BETTER THAN PETRY?

Defensmen are easier to come by, the Oilers have an abundance of 3/4 defensmen trading one won't hurt any cause.

REALLY? I HAVE ALWAYS HEARD THAT D-MEN ARE THE TOUGHEST POSITION PLAYERS TO SECURE TALENT IN. PETRY IS PLAYING IN THE TOP PAIRING RIGHT NOW. I REALIZE THIS IS SAD BUT TRUE. HE IS A DEFACTO 1/2 ON THIS ROSTER AT THIS TIME - MORE IS THE PITY. TRADING HIM WILL HURT ..... A LOT. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT REPLACING HIM.

As for the goaltender Bunz is at least 2 years away at best, who's a better goalie in the future Bunz or Roy? Can you tell me that?

YES I CAN TELL YOU THAT. ROY HAS REGRESSED. THIS IS CLEARLY INDICATED BY HIS PRESENCE IN THE ECHL AND THE ORGANIZATION CARRYING TWO VETERANS IN OKC. HE IS FAAAAR FROM READY TO TAKE THE NEXT STEP. BUNZ IS ABOVE HIM IN THE DEPTH CHART.

Will a competent goalie be on the market in a year from now?

YOU MEAN LIKE KHABBY WAS 3 YEARS AGO??????

As for Gagner, Galchenyuk projects to be a far better player around the 5th spot.

AND YOU ARE DETERMINING THIS HOW??? GAGNER TAKEN AT 6 OVERALL HAS A SIMILAR PEDIGREE TO GALCHENYUK. GAL MAY END UP BETTER, BUT NOT SURE HOW YOU HAVE ESTABLISHED THIS GIVEN THE INJURY PLAGUED YEAR GALCHENYUK HAS HAD. WHAT CRITERIA ARE YOU USING TO PROJECT HIM "BEING A FAR BETTER PLAYER"?

Not sure if that trade will happen, but I think people tend to over value the players we have.

UNLIKE OVERVALUING THE QUALITY OF 5TH OVERALL DRAFT PICKS? LOOKED AT THE LAST FIFTEEN 5TH OVERALL POSITION PLAYERS:

Ryan Strome, Nino Niederreiter, Brayden Schenn, Luke Schenn, Karl Alzner, Phil Kessel, Blake Wheeler, Thomas Vanek, Ryan Whitney, Stan Chistov, Raffi Torres, Tim Connolly, Vitaly Vishnevsky, Eric Brewer, Richard Jackman.

YIKES! I SEE A COUPLE OF DECENT POINT PRODUCERS IN VANEK AND KESSEL (WHO BOTH HAVE THEIR OWN ISSUES), ONE GUY WHO SPENDS MORE TIME IN THE INFIRMARY THAN ON THE ICE (CONNOLLY), ANOTHER WHO CAN'T STAY OUT OF SHANNYS DOGHOUSE (TORRES) A COUPLE OF ABSOLUTE BUSTS (V. VISH AND CHISTOV) AND A BUNCH OF SOLID JOURNEYMEN. JUST WHO IS THE GENERATIONAL TYPE PLAYER THAT FELL TO 5TH?

BTW. PLEASE DONT MISINTERPRET CAPS AS YELLING. I AM JUST TOO MUCH OF AN OLD FART TO FIGURE OUT ITALICS IN THIS FORMAT ON MY CRACKBERRY. SORRY WES.

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#92 Walter Sobchak
May 23 2012, 02:28PM
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@The Soup Fascist

No problem Soup, Roy was put into the ECHL because you can't have a goalie starting in the AHL with zero experience.

That being said you right about Bunz and is why I chose him over Roy, but my point was you can't really project goalies as wells players IMO.

As for Petry,Like you mentioned, he's a good option on the Oilers, that's not saying much. The Oilers have options on defense whether via trade or UFA, again.. Not to sound like I hate the guy but he would be an atractive asset for another team.

I Personelly think Klefbom will be better. Gernat projects to be round about the same as Petry and Musil could be another 3/4 defensmen as well, not to mention Teubert, Plante, Maricin , and what if Peckham has a turn around year? Point is The Oilers have to move something, Petry is an attractive player.

Keep an open mind that the Oilers with Petry will be as bad without Petry. you can find Petry replacement on the open market for the time being.

Galchenyuk 16 year old season projects him to be in the range of RNH, plus a lot of scouts who watch him say that he's an elite talent. If not injuried could be number 1. However based on other teams needs I think he will fall to fifth, doesn't mean he's a true fifth.

In the end as I said, I'm not sure how likely a trade like this would happen, only if it's plausible to happen. The players involved and my reason for there involvement, I also stated it would be a overpayment but one in the long run benefits the Oilers. Thanks Soup.

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#93 The Soup Fascist
May 23 2012, 02:41PM
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OK We will agree to disagree. I think we both agree this team needs to improve. My only point would be if I was going to overpay for a player I am going to overpay for a genuine first pairing D-man vs another young forward. But if we all thought the same way life would be pretty boring.

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#94 Old Soldier
May 23 2012, 02:56PM
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I dont see Galchenyuk getting past Montreal, so most of the deals would be irrelevant. In fact I think even Columbus is eyeing Galchenyuk to pair with Johanssen. The scouting services seem to be fairly uniform in Galchenuk being a safer pick for center than Grigorenko, with similar upside.

If, and its a huge if, ST was serious about getting the duo, Yak and Galchenyuk, there is one advantage, Howson loves Hemsky, and is very familiar with the organization. Obviously the package would be big, and probably include next years #1, but if there is time to pull a Burke, this might be it. Junior linemates with exquisite talent.....our Russian Sedins.

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#95 RexLibris
May 23 2012, 02:59PM
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@ Wes Mantooth and Soup Fascist

What about the following scenario:

If the Oilers did decide to draft Galchenyuk first overall (one report compared him to Marian Hossa but as a center, another player who missed his draft year with a knee injury), then presumably Yakupov, Grigorenko, and Murray would be selected in the next three picks.

This would leave Toronto with the prospect of selecting another defenseman or a winger with their fifth overall pick. If Burke finds himself in this position he may be more willing to entertain trade options for that pick if it addresses his more immediate concerns. I don't know that the Oilers could afford the asking price, but it does create some scenarios.

Another option to contemplate would be a three-way deal between Edmonton, Columbus and Toronto. Maybe something that would see Columbus send Rick Nash to Toronto in exchange for the 5th overall pick and Colborne and Schenn. The Oilers first overall would go to Columbus along with Linus Omark. Curtis Hamilton could be sent to Toronto. And the Oilers would receive both the 2nd and 5th overall picks from Columbus.

Three way deals are pretty tough to balance, and this is a crude, amateur attempt, but it is a potential deal that the three GMs could be looking at. I think out of the three GMs Tambellini is the one who has the most time and patience while the other two might be looking for some more immediate improvement to mollify their disappointed fans.

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#96 The Soup Fascist
May 23 2012, 03:44PM
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A lot to think about. IMO I don't see Burke giving up Schenn / Colborne / 5th for Nash and his big fat contract. He would get run out of town given the fact that Seguin and D Hamilton are already in another team's silks. Not saying I love Colborne or Schenn but Burke is under the microscope.

I get that everyone wants their cake and eat it too. I would love to take another skilled forward and a high-end defenceman in the top 5 / 6 this year too. Just not feeling it. Fun to talk about though.

I still think it plays out that Oil take "Yak" and HOPEFULLY sign a capable free agent D-man this year Carle / Wideman / Garrison in addition to Justin Schultz. That is a ton to ask for. Still does not address our lack of size / grit up front but would make us better. IF we find one or two capable D-men and IF the kids continue to develop and IF Dubnyk has a solid year and IF Smyth, Whitney and Eager find their games and IF Belanger thinks last year was just a bad dream (or the the oil can dump him) and IF we stay relatively healthy - we could make a run at the playoffs. Hmmm, 6 "IFS". We likely need 5 of these IFs to come through to have a sniff at playoffs.

* Decides to book Spring Fling in Vegas for next April using surplus money that was squirreled away in envelope marked "Oilers 2013 Playoff Tickets".

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#97 RexLibris
May 23 2012, 04:06PM
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@SF

I think the size and grit up front is generally what had been developing in OKC and may be added this June.

Further to that, I think we lack only size and that is something that, in and of itself, does not determine a great player. Gagner, Hall and RNH all have some grit to them in the way they play the game and the areas of the ice they tend to occupy. As well, each one is fully willing to engage, physically and after the whistle, with the opposition. Not that this is always a good think, but...

Pitlick, Hartikainen, Pelss and in all likelihood our 2nd round pick this year are all more physical forwards.

As well, it should be noted, that if the Oilers take Yakupov, he has a reputation of being quite physical.

I'm aiming for a finish this upcoming year around the 22nd overall position. I think this is reasonable and in keeping with other recent rebuilds and our level of talent/development.

I suspect that, in the end, there may only be two draft positions separating the Oilers from the Flames. If that were to happen it could make for some interesting trade scenarios at the Nations.

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#98 Wäx Män Riley
May 23 2012, 05:21PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

That "word is Schultz has already chosen Vancouver" is a crap statement and I think you know it.

There is no word on Schultz. Bob Murray still optimistically guesses that he'll sign in Anaheim. Vancouver writers optimistically note that he might sign there. Oilers writers such as myself note that Bob McKenzie guessed months ago that Schultz would end up in Edmonton.

It's all speculation, because there's been no word from his camp, and acting like he's a signed, sealed and delivered Canuck is either Vancouver fandom or just plain obtuse.

OH SNAP!

*looks around feverishly*

DSF? ..... DSF?? Hmmmm... nowhere to be found.

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#99 David S
May 23 2012, 06:31PM
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Phew! You know things are getting serious around here when the caps key starts getting action.

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#100 Cowbell_Feva
May 24 2012, 12:26AM
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To Reg Dunlop... careful what you wish for. If I was given the GM job, and given the fact I'm not in the GM circle, I would have no contacts.

The team would be like Calgary starting next season, and wallow in the basement for many decades. Darryl Katz, knowing lots about Pharmaceuticals and F*ck all about hockey, would then promote me to President of Hockey Operations, where I could sit on my perch in the Ivory tower and let the new GM take my slings & arrows.

Wait...doesn't this sound familiar??

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