ABOUT THEO

Lowetide
June 17 2012 09:11AM

Playing defense is a tough damn job, with risk of injury, exposure and public humiliation on every sortie. The development of a successful defenseman should be timed by sundial, and there's an enormous risk in dealing away a defenseman during his development time. Trade him too soon and he haunts you for a decade.

In the beginning, the Edmonton Oilers liked Theo Peckham very much. They actually traded up for him at the 2006 entry draft, sending the 80th overall pick and the 200th overall pick in the 2006 entry draft to move up 5 slots and take the roughouse defender from Richmond Hill, Ontario at 75th overall in 2006.

Peckham's development through junior and into pro hockey progressed quickly enough for us to recognize him as a legit NHL prospect. The Oilers loved his size, grit, mean streak and a few months after he turned pro there were good arrows:

  • Springfield coach Jeff Truitt, winter 2008: “Theo’s still a young player, but he shows a well-rounded game. He’s physical, a guy his team can count on. He’s relied upon for penalty-killing and the power play. On the power play, he has a knack for getting a shot through traffic.”

Peckham played a game with the big club in 08-09, 15 the following year and was at the 15 game mark in the 09-10 season when Peckham took a hit from Sharks defender Doug Murray (who took a penalty on the play) in their March 22nd game. We've talked many times about defensemen and injury; it impacts their effectiveness and shortens their careers. A player like Peckham--who I've never seen back down from a challenge--is doubly vulnerable to injury.

ROOKIE MAKES THE GRADE

In 10-11, the Oilers not only played Peckham at the NHL level, but they played him a lot with Tom Gilbert and against tougher than expected competition. Peckham and Gilbert played 48% of their seasons together in 10-11 and they also had the toughest zone start available. For a rookie to face those minutes--even with a quality veteran like Gilbert--and emerge with a CorsiRel or -6 and a plus minus of -5 is worthy of notice. Even if we add luck into the equation, and he certainly got a push from playing with Gilbert, there were some things to build on.

This past season was not successful. He took a puck to the face in early February and was used sparingly after that; he also suffered another concussion (his 2nd in two years) toward the end of the season. However, injury wasn't the only problem.

In an article written just before the trade deadline, Jonathan Willis gave a nice summary of the situation at that time:

  • Peckham has some positives.  He’s a ruffian, adding the physical edge so many teams are looking for to any lineup.  He can kill penalties.  However, he’s also a bottom-pairing guy on one of the weakest teams in the league, a player with minimal puck skills at the NHL level and a guy that hasn’t shown the ability to shut down his opposition – despite the fact he usually draws weak opponents and starts more in the offensive zone than most Oilers.  Beyond that, he takes penalties roughly three times as often as he draws them.

That's about where Peckham was at that time and about where he is today. The Oilers have to make a decision on Peckham this summer; trade him away, qualify him and then sign him and include Peckham as part of the solution moving forward, or walk away from the qualifier.

WHAT TO DO?

I think the best plan is to qualify Peckham, sign him and give him at least another year to cut back on the penalties, improve his positioning and find those calm feet required for the position. He is 24 years old, the Oilers have invested 156 NHL games (and much of that on the Gilbert pairing) to a young man with many of the things this club lacks: a mean streak, toughness, a man in every battle.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Defense is a bloody tough position. If NHL teams had the option (and they did in the original 6) I imagine we'd see a lot of 28-year old rookies who spent close to a decade learning the trade in the AHL. Modern teams don't have that luxury, and the Oilers can't afford to be wrong on Peckham.

Flush him? Sure. But you better be right, and we should have no doubts about whether or not he'd get a contract from another NHL team. Theo Peckham had a tough year, battled injury and I think coach Renney likely tired of the penalties and the positioning. NHL history is crowded with men who were in Peckham's position today and then went on to play a decade of effective defense. It is not a position that lends itself to straight line progress or performance.

Theo Peckham is worthy of another contract, because the story is still unfolding.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 DSF
June 17 2012, 02:14PM
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@Oilanderp wrote:

Don't give up on Peckman yet. Do whatever you have to do to keep him in the system somewhere, be it AHL (pretty sure he'd be picked off the waiver wire though) or even throwing him up on the wing on the fourth line.

Answer me this: who has worse puck skills and positional play, Peckham on the wing or Hordichuk on the wing?

One more year, do whatever it takes.

You're suggesting keeping him at all costs because he has better skills than Hordichuk?

Alrighty, then.

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#52 Metal&Oil
June 17 2012, 02:17PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

@Metal&oil

Prospects don't sell tickets and entertain patrons seated in NHL arenas. With the fail rate being so high when drafting these kids, the Oilers will be fortunate if one or even two of those kids develope into legitimate NHL players. 30th, 30th and 29th only comfirms the term prospect has been abused considerably by the Oilers spanning the last 20 yrs.

Many here have seen alot of duds come and go here over that time. Outside of the lotto picks, the 3 lotto yummies, the song remains much the same to date.

It's too early to tell on any of these 2nd round picks in the Stu era. However our 2008 6th round pick (in Stu's first draft) is very much on track and probably has a spot on the team, especially if Ryan Smyth is not resigned (which should happen if he demands more then $2M/year).

I guess it is easy to dismiss a player before they even get on the scene.

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#53 justDOit
June 17 2012, 02:36PM
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DSF wrote:

You're suggesting keeping him at all costs because he has better skills than Hordichuk?

Alrighty, then.

Will be curious to see if Hordi/Peckham becomes bigger than Gagner/Wellwood.

Considering we've never seen Teddy play wing, I'm willing to give him +130 that he's better than Hordi as a winger.

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#54 @Oilanderp
June 17 2012, 03:47PM
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@DSF

You're suggesting keeping him at all costs because he has better skills than Hordichuk? Alrighty, then.

No I suggest keeping him at all (okay not all, most) costs because if we have time for a guy who plays 2 mins a night, then we should have more time for a young player with assets the team needs who took a step backward last year.

I think he needs another look, even if we have to do something silly like put him on the 4th line wing from time to time. I'm sure Teddy could chip the puck in and bang bodies just as well as some of the guys we've seen in the bottom pairing these last few years.

It's just a shame we couldn't put him in the AHL until he turns the corner. And that's the point - he may turn the corner.

EDIT: To put my comment in perspective, I don't believe we will be playing meaningful hockey in Feb 2013, so you might as well see what you've got.

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#55 bdiddy18
June 17 2012, 10:15PM
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And to think Matt Greene was expendable because we had the likes of Theo Peckham coming up in the system.

It is also interesting to note how Theo soared up the depth chart quickly to stick with the team while Jeff Petry drafted at the same time took longer and only late into the season last year did he look like he belonged

Theo deserves a shot - just not with the Oilers - to many waiting in the wings that play a similar game Colten Teubert, Alex Plante, Taylor Fedun.

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#56 robinrussia
June 17 2012, 10:31PM
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Dress Theo as the No. 8 Dman - Given our injury history, he'll be playing regular shifts as a 5-6 in by November. Potter is the one that is in trouble here, becasue, he's got no pedigree as an oilers draft pick and Renny, his biggest supporter, is gone.

If we pick up another Dman named Schultz or Murray, Theo is left to fight for ice time with Sutton. If we pick up 2 of them, then I'd send Sutton away and Potter to the AHL.

At the end of the day, invest in your youth not your vets in the last year of their career. (Sutton, Smyth, Khabi).

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#57 sizedoesmatter
June 18 2012, 06:04AM
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There are going to be trades made to aquire a defensman and there should be players going the other way to make room. Theo is to good to not be qualified.Playing tough is A valuable asset

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#58 MJM
June 18 2012, 11:20AM
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I feel like we were having this same conversation about Matt Greene a couple of years ago.

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