THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
Jason Gregor
June 22 2012 12:34PM
At around 5:05 p.m. Edmonton time the Nation will either explode in excitement if the Oilers draft Nail Yakupov, or we'll set an all-time comments record if they take Ryan Murray instead.
Here in Pittsburgh all the speculation is that the Oilers will take Murray. We won't know until draft time if that's true, but I won't be stunned if they take him based on the buzz here in the Consol Energy Centre in Pittsburgh. Murray will be a solid player, but if they do take him I think they'd be making a big mistake.
The optics would be brutal, but more importantly he isn't a lock as the best defender in the draft. Morgan Rielly, Griffin Reinhart and Mat Dumba are on par with Murray, and many scouts and GMs that I spoke to here in Pittsburgh have been raving about Rielly.
Not one draft ranking had Murray rated first overall, it was mostly Yakupov while a few had Alex Galchenyuk rated #1. I respect the different scouting services. They are paid to scout the kids, and if none of them had Murray ranked #1, why would the Oilers?
Yakupov is the best winger, and in most scouts eyes the best player, in the draft. He's incredibly skilled, lightning fast and he has great hands. History shows that your odds of landing a superstar forward are much higher in the top-five, while the best D-men can come from anywhere in the first few rounds.
Taking Murray would seem like a safe pick, rather than the right pick at this point. Ultimately, we won't know for a few years if he turns out to be the best of his draft class, but the perception will be that they picked him because he was at the World Championships. Whether that is true or not, likely won't matter for some.
The Oilers have already made up their mind who they are taking, and they'll make it official at 5:05 MST, and once the announcement is made there will be no middle ground from fans.
They will either love the pick, or they'll be outraged. Outrage should not be part of the equation.
When was the last time a team drafted a player that wasn't ranked #1 by any scouting services?
If they choose Murray I will have lots of empathy for the young man, because going first overall should be a wonderful moment, but I don't think the Oilers fanbase will be as excited as they were in 2010 and 2011. And that will be unfortunate for Murray.
Keep in mind that in 2009 there were lots of rumours that the Islanders were going to take Matt Duchene instead of John Tavares, and it didn't happen. All of this Murray talk might just end up being rumours. We'll see.
QUICK HITS
- Scott Howson is willing to move the #2 pick. He has been very open about it, and I wonder if the Oilers could offer enough to make a "Brian Burke" splash and walk away with the first two picks. Would they move Hemksy and something for the #2 pick? Would the Blue Jackets make that deal? I don't know, but it would be exciting if the Oilers found a way to get the first two picks.
- Spoke to four different head scouts yesterday and all of them were raving about Morgan Rielly. They love his skill-set, but all of them were extremely high on his character. He'll need a lot of character if the Islanders take him.
- Who would you take out of Rick Nash, Bobby Ryan or Jordan Staal? You could make a solid argument for all three of them.
- A reminder about draft parties today. You can get a sweet Oilersnation.com T-shirt and party with Wanye at the Pint Downtown today, or you can tip a few back with Jason Strudwick at the Pint Off Whyte. With Struds you could win $500 if you can choose the first five picks in the correct order. Both parties will be a blast.
I can see the Oil putting rumors out there to get a team in the top 5 to try and trade up, but who in their right mind would trade away the pick based on what someone above might do, when you can wait and see what they do and then make a decision on the floor.
If I had the top 2 I would take yak and Gal. Both are of Russian heritage, friends, linemates, and both have a lot of skill. They are also gym partners and I see them pushing each other for years to come. If they have great success together this may also be leverage for hometown discount in the future.
There has been a lot of debate about Tracy @TreenasOil on Twitter being the real deal or not (not Brownlee, however). Today we will all find out as she just tweeted Ryan Murray is the pick.
As I posted in another thread, if they want to take a d-man with the #1 they should do what the Team 1260 morning show was discussing - trade the #1 to Boston for Dougie Hamilton.
I am playing devil's advocate for a minute here. I agree with everyone take Yak or even Gal if you don't like Yak's character.
That being said, if Management was confidant that Murray could step in next year and perform at a similar level to what Smid is currently at with a little bit higher of a ceiling. Who could fault them for looking at him.
I don't think a 1st year pro will perform at that high of a level, but the WC proves they think he is already highly competant to play against men.
Would you be happy with the result at the end of the year, if they took Murray, he played on the 2nd pairing all year, with similar results to current day Smid, and the Oil pushed for a playoff spot?
If you said yes, would you still be happy if Yak got a hundred points somewhere else?
@Truth
Really? She claims they will take murray after hours of that circulating and her quoting someone else and if that is indeed correct she's legit?
@everyone
is there a bonafide source for this murray rumor?
ALso,
you want to know what would really piss me off if they take Murray #1... that would mean the one remaining thing keeping me mildly interested in the last 10 games right through the draft lottery would be erased...
all the excitement of staying worse than Montreal and beating Columbus at the lottery... meaningless.
we could easily get Murray at 2 or even 3...
it means you basically kept me interested for nothing... and you wasted the gift of Montreal playing marginally better and Columbus drawing the short straw.
@ Cody Anderson
Looks like the Oilers think they have the Jackets mounted in their vice, putting the screws to Howson. If they're going to pee in Columbus' cornflakes (selecting Murray first) then they could follow up by getting the second overall pick as well. Selecting Galchenyuk or Yakupov with that aquired second overall selection would be optimal.
Hemsky/or Gagner, along with Paajarvi for the second selection. I'd even include an offer to flip firsts next season to get Galchenyuk.
@ Come join the Dark Parade
Even if they got 1st and 2nd, you still wouldnt take Yak??
Maybe they're trying to make one of the other top 5 draft pickers blink. I'm planning on being on the treadmill when I watch the draft. Don't make me fall off Tambi!
@ Burk
Need the center moreso than the winger, Murray and Galchenyuk are what the Oilers need. There's no KHL fears with Galchenyuk, which is best case scenario.
Galchenyuk will be worth the possible year wait. Murray makes it this year. I'd be estatic with Yakupov and Murray though. Just not as happy as with Murray and Galchenyuk.
Can we call Mammoet now if we're going to be moving Heavan and Earth on this deal?
Welcome to Edmonton Nail!
@BurkeTheTurd
I think he's saying that the only way to get Columbus's pick is to take their guy first. Awfully dangerous game of chicken, taking the pick you think number 2 wants in order to try to get their pick from them.
Draft Murray. You can only get him at #2 if the Oil take Yak #1, and Columbus might not have taken Yak #1 if it was up to them...I'm sure he'll be a stud.
@The Beaker
Yes, if she gets this right I will have a little more confidence in what she says. If they pick Yak or someone else, I, as well as everyone else, knows she is a complete fake.
draft Yak please...the BPA, spare us the surprises!
I say take the best asset then manage the assets after. Hopefully tambo has it in him
Kypreos on Twitter saying Canadiens shopping Subban. Maybe for 1st...
Hi Guys,
I'm a Habs fan and let me tell you this. Be careful at what you wish for. Most people that know hockey pretty well will tell you that offensive skill is a great asset, but it's not everything. There is much more to evaluate.
As a fan you don't have to. But the team managers have to. Remember pat Faloon? He was clearly the #1 pick at that time and guess what happened. There is more than just talent.
Carey Price was drafted in 2005 as the 5th pick overall. People in Montreal were VERY disapointed, we wanted Benoit Pouliot, but Minesota wanted him and they got Pouliot right before us. Now go ask Wild's management if they would like to go back in time and pick a different #4 overall pick... He had a tremendous offensive potential, but that's not enough.
Of course i'm not a Oilers fan but let me just say that as a hockey fan, I hope you guys get someone else.
First of all, he might be good, but he's fragile to start with. Then look at him as a Kovalchuk type of player. Lots of scoring chances, lots of turnovers. But who will repair his mistakes? Do you have the Ds for that? If he plays with other rookies, who's gonna back him up if he looses the puck? Fast play in the nhl will bring some doubt in his mind and he will hold the stick tight after a few games.
Second, look at your first 2 lines. You got small and light forwards. Very skilled and fast yes, but goals tend to be scored in front of the net more and more, and you need big guys for that.
Who's gonna win the battles in the corners or in front of the net against teams that has big D's?
Yea i'm a Montreal fan and don't tell me I don't know what we are taling about. We got many small-skilled players over the years and let me tell you this, when you don't have better, so be it. But now you guys got the chance to have a big power forward on your top two and I hope you get him.
My 1st pick this year as a Oil GM would be Galchenyuk. Second Murray, third Forsberg and then Dumba.
You guys need to have players that can plays at both ends of the ice.
my 2 cents...
@Archaeologuy
Montreal must not be happy with the money he wants to renew/extend him.
@Martin
Please don't compare the bums on your roster to #1 overall studs. Montreal would be ecstatic to get a player of Kovalchuk's skill set.
Please.
Lots of good points. However, the nervousness and tension you can feel by just entering the thread comes from us knowing first hand that the Oilers management has a tendency to do one dumb move per every 1.5 good moves...
That's why most of us are going bpa all the way.. Trade his ass later should things go south later
@Truth
I'm telling you right now they are trading the pick. Guaranteed.
@Truth
So if they now trade the pick in any way, shape or form will I be the real deal?
No problem if they don't I just go back to being the fake I always was.
I am perplexed? Say they will take Murray first and have him and Rienhart close or even Yakupov, Wouldn't you trade for example to columbus to swap picks + Col 5th round now you still get Reinhart or Yak + asset or go to third pick with Montreal give them a chance at Yak for their pick + a second rd pick now you get Reinhart or Galy + asset. Taking anybody first overall other than Yak is a complete blunder by management. They take Murray will really test if, In Stu we trust.
draft galchenyuk then trade gagner and tuebert to chicago for mclean and their 1st then draft wilson. oilers just got big down the middle and nasty on the wing
Hi Martin, I both agree and disagree with you. A small forward can be great a lineup of small forwards....not so much.
If they drafted Yak with plans on playing him with Hemsky and Gagner, then I would tend to agree. Way too soft, too many turnovers, too easy to push off the puck. On this line Yak is the toughest and most physical of the group....that is not a good thing.
Now put Hall, Hartikainan, or Paajarvi on the wing and it is a marked improvement. Put one of them on wing and Galnechyuk at centre and you actually have a physically imposing line that still has a tonne of skill. then Yak is the least physical of the group, and he is more than strong enough for that.
Good points, but to be honest as an Oiler fan I pay attention to what's in our system, and what's in our system is something just as good, that will take just as long as Murray to be where he needs to be. Plus, for a defender, Murray is not big. Players like Getzlaf or Penner will own this kid.
Also, as an Oiler fan, as someone paying tons of money to go see games, what would I rather pay money for:
a) to see a smooth skating defenseman that is smart and does good things that no one really even sees.
or
b) The Nuge and Ebs coming off a great shift, the opposing team thankful our top talent is off the ice and not passing circles around them. But wait, what's this, the Hall Yak line is on the ice. Now it's two balls to the wall, skill for days players rushing through the middle. Hall breaks through as he takes a reckless body check, but not before the puck lands on Yak's stick. OMFG did you see what he just did??????? Hall and Yak hug at center ice. The post game interview is hilarious as stitch-face Hall grins about the play and the Yak yuks it up with the media. Everyone at work the next day is talking about the goal and quoting Yak like Will Ferrel.
Seriously, if getting to the playoffs and winning a cup means boring trap style hockey ala Nashville, you can have my Oil jerseys.
Forget the all time record for comments if they take Murray. There would be a public linching of Lowebelleni at the Edmonton International Airport. The Nuge would probably refuse to fly home with the brass.
This is madness.
I agree, if you are not taking the consensus #1 you have to try to trade down. the only problem is what if other know your needs and guess what you are doing, or do not value the #1 pick high enough to give you anything of value.
Unless they Have Murray rated #1, it is way to risky to select him #1 hoping to get the 2nd pick as well. If they draft him #1 then i am sure they rate him #1. Tambelini does not have the balls to gamble like this.........Hell I don't think I have the balls for this gamble, and I am all about taking a risk.
hmmm so there leaning on taking Murry.This murry guy isnt the same guy that had 5 pucks go off him into his own net in one game at the world juniors is it?Dithers you watch that game?If this dildo blows this pick its time for a revolt.If the almighty Stu endorses this pick without trading down to get him then Im sure alot of us will doubt how great he is.All this buzz on Murry makes me want to puke.
@Cody anderson
"if you are not taking the consensus #1 you have to try to trade down. "
bingo... otherwise it's a waste of a #1 to take what would likely go #3.
I guess a supplemental question would be (if you are worried you traded down and that Murray isn't still available) how much daylight is there between Murray and the other Ds?
If the Oil are desperate for a D 4 years down the road right now (crazy I know) they ought to trade the pick down, get an NHL asset and target any of the top 4 D men in the draft.
Please... Please take Yakupov.
is this "alyonka larionov" on tsn Igor's daughter or something?
she's working the "social lounge" online... whatever that means... some kind of champagne room?
at any rate, for anyone interested, tsn.ca will be streaming the draft online for free it looks like
@Romulus' Apotheosis
It is Igor's daughter.
@freeze
ahhh... nepotism wins again! I hate that guy!!
Romulus, the main thing that seperates Murray from the other top D is he is NHL ready whereas the others are all 2 or 3 or more years away from the NHL. For a well rounded Dman (Not super offensive) He has one of the higher ceilings of D in the draft but will play NHL next year. 4 years down the road, who knows.......I think I would prefer Reinhart, because he is younger, bigger, and showed more year over year improvement.
That being said Reinhart is not playing in the NHL next year and is probably 3 to 4 years away from being an effective Dman.
Are we really gonna take Barker at 1st OV ???????
assuming Murray = Barker is alarmist at best. Maybe they are taking Doughty, or Niedermeyer, or maybe Smid. Whoever they pick, I will cheer for that player to be the best, so I don't hate Tambellini any more than I already do!
I get the "nhl ready" talk. it seems legit in Murray's case... but probably only to an extent. I mean there is a difference between be able to play
1-9 NHL games (tiny percentage of the draft)
9-82 NHL games (handful of the first round)
82 NHL games as a reliable, contributing anchor at your position.
Assuming Murray is in the second category... how many years until he reaches the third? is he there yet?
I would guess, since Ds take so long to develop, he's a ways away from that crucial third category.
Basically the question is... is he Doughty material and on par with Doughty's development (even he improved dramatically in his second year)??
For a quick D, I still think your best bet is a trade for NHL established players. we have a lot of odds and ends to toy with...
Guys, thanks for the replies, this is, whater happens in a few minutes, very very intersting.
I read again or hear people saying they will get sick or be mad at the GM if Yakupov is not drafted 1st. I don't understand that because I hope everyone realize that the information we have, is from the tv/radio/internet. We do not have all the details like teams does.
Will, I understand that star players are exciting to look at. But you can't have too many of them up front and none at D. You got a point though, you guys do have some good prospects on defence like Klefbom and Musil. I think Murray can be a good pick, imo he will be a very good pick.
When trying to hit an homerun, you often get striked out :)
I would get a big center though, you got great players on wings, you need a strong center to play with Hall or Eberle.
But hey, please note that if Montreal draft Galchenyuk or Forsberg because they are still available at rank 3. We will be VERY happy. :)
Good luck guys ;)