Igor Larionov talks Yakupov, Galchenyuk and the 2012 Draft

Andrey Osadchenko
June 05 2012 07:04PM

After talking to Nail Yakupov, the Nation Network's Andrey Osadchenko had a chance to sit down with his agent (and Hockey Hall of Famer) Igor Larionov.  Larionov represents not only Yakupov, but another player - Alex Galchenyuk - in contention for a top-five spot at this year's NHL Entry Draft. 

AO: How did you start working with Nail Yakupov?

IL: I talked to his father, Rail. I went to Nizhnekamsk to see him play three years ago. I wanted to get him to know better. I didn’t want to chat on the phone; I wanted to have a face-to-face talk. I talked to his family and himself. We discussed who he wanted to be and where he wanted to play. And we came to a conclusion that he wants to play in North America. He went there a few times for short tournaments and friendly games. He really liked it there. My job was to find the best possible team for him. I picked the Sarnia Sting. First of all, it’s with a one-hour drive from Detroit [where Larionov lives]. Second of all, the team is owned by Dino Ciccarelli’s family, and I played with him. Besides, they already had [Alex] Galchenyuk.

AO: How important is this?

IL: It is very important for Russian players to be in the right conditions and right hands to develop. You can’t just put a guy on a random QMJHL, OHL or WHL team. You have to be very picky about it or the guy will be lost. It’s very important for me that my guys are close to me. I want to be able to help them right away if they have any problems.

AO: Is it fair to say Yakupov has exactly what you want to see in a player?

IL: Nail is certainly very talented. In everything. He’s always been a stand-out kind of person – even when he was a kid. He wants to be a leader. I spent a lot of time with him these past two years in Sarnia and I always saw this trace of character in him. It’s a good thing. He always wants to be the best, which means he’s getting to his goal little by little. There are other things he has developed – he responds to reporters in the right way. Besides, he doesn’t get excited about the draft that much anymore. He can’t control when he’s going to be picked – first, second or fifth. I understand it. These kids don’t. At his very first press conference in Sarnia he said: ‘I want to be #1, I want to be the player in the CHL and I want to help my team to win the championship’. All these years he did exactly what he said he would. He proved it not only with his talent, but with his work-ethic. He ‘lives’ in every shift. He steps on the ice and he enjoys playing hockey. He gives 120% every night.

AO: And that is something you like the most about him?

IL: Yes, indeed. I think hockey is a very simple game but a complicated one at the same time. In certain circumstances the players lose their valuable skills. My job - with all my knowledge of hockey and respect – is to talk to head-coach and general manager and explain to them how they should properly use players. It’s my priority. Before I put my player on any team, I’ve got to make sure what sort of team this is, who works in this team, what concept of player development do they have and so on. It’s really important that not only the player developed his talented and got familiar with North American type of hockey. There are no 17-year-old players who know everything. They think they do but they don’t. They say that 27-year-old Ovechkin has problems with his defensive game. What do you expect from an 18-year-old kid?

This is why it’s so important to make sure there are no misunderstandings with the coach. Every time I talk to a coach I point out that it’s very important for the kids to develop in the right way. They must use the opportunity to its maximum. They need to develop the skills they already have and learn new ones. Plus they need to be able to improvise.

AO: In Russian junior league – MHL – both Yakupov and Mikhail Grigorenko were third-liners. Why? Was their talent overlooked back home?

IL: I’m not in a position to comment this. I don’t live there. Sure, I visit Russia and I am Russian. One thing I can say is that here the talent gets noticed. Here you’re given time to show what you’re capable of. Maybe they were under the radar in Russia because there they want older guys to play more. Maybe they thought it was too early for them to play on that level; I don’t know. This is what we‘ve got now, though – they weren’t noticed there, but here everyone can see they’re really good. You may not be ready physically, but if you’re ready moral-wise, psychologically and you feel like you’re ready to play – why shouldn’t you play? Here they trust you more and you can play. In North America the level of competitiveness is really high. I think the CHL has a better level of play than MHL. This is what I think. And I watch hockey here and there.

AO: You said it’s important that whatever team picks Yakupov, they need to make sure they need him. Do you think the Oilers need Yakupov?

IL: I talk to all NHL GMs. The day before this interview I talked to Steve Tambellini and Kevin Lowe. They really like Nail. However, at this point they can’t promise anything. The same goes for Columbus. Scott Howson, Craig Patrick and Tyler Wright spent two days in Sarnia with Yakupov and his family. It’s a serious indication they really want him. Usually if you want to get a player, you treat him as you would treat a stock. If somebody wants to buy your company’s stock, they’re going to run full research first. You invest in a player, and he is going to represent your team for years to come.

AO: What did the Oilers tell you?

IL: Tambellini told me: ‘We like him. We want him. But we’re going to make a decision the day before the draft’. I also know the Habs want to get one of my guys – either Nail or Alex [Galchenyuk]. So do the Leafs. It is possible that the Leafs are going to trade their draft pick and get both of them. There is a possibility like that. Nail and Alex went to New Jersey for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals. After this they met Leafs GM Brian Burke. Then Nail met with the Habs.

I look at the draft a little different. I look at the big picture. I don’t care when are they going to be picked. I want them to be picked by teams that play their kind of hockey. Because they have a bright future ahead of them. I want them to be in the right hands and in the right atmosphere. Whether it’s Columbus, Toronto or Islanders – it’s not important to me. The NHL is a very successful league, it’s doing well. I know these kids. I see how they work. I don’t see any problems for them. They’re going to be okay.

Recently by Andrey Osadchenko

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Russian hockey reporter who moved to Canada to find himself right in the middle of hockey madness. @AOsadchenko
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#51 Wäx Män Riley
June 05 2012, 10:27PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Edmonton not having Galchenyuk on their prospect list speaks volumes about the Oilers amatuer scouting. It brings me comfort that they've been spayed/neutered and now are forced into taking the BPA. First overall is like having someone else do your homework for you and you still get the credit.

That trade with the Leafs is abysmal. Why trade a hundred dollar bill for 3 twenties?

It's lie back and think of England time in Oilersnation. Don't screw this up Steve, just walk up to the podium and take Yakupov.

"Lie back and think of England"

Bringin' back an oldie but goodie!

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#52 Wäx Män Riley
June 05 2012, 10:28PM
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ALEX STEENBERGER wrote:

DARREN DREGER (TSN) :

Reported today that a trade in the works between Brian Burle and Steve Tambellini: JAKE GARDINER - NAZEM KADRI - (G) JONAS GUSTAFFSON - 5th Overall 2012 Pick for OILERS 1st Overall Pick and (G) Olivier ROY

**Because it will be lost on the first page...... and i love this part**

NO! God! No god, please, NO!

NOOOOOOOO!

↑↑Click me

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#53 Wäx Män Riley
June 05 2012, 10:33PM
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@Wanye

Where did you find this Andrey guy? He has been BRINGING THE FIRE with his interviews. Awesome!

@Andrey Osadchenko

You have been BRINGING THE FIRE! Appreciate the great interviews!

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#54 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 05 2012, 10:35PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

You actually think a team would part with Gardiner and the 5th for the #1? The Oilers would likely jump at that...cause one of Grigorenko, Galchenyuk or Forsberg most likely would be there at #5.

Compare the #1 to the #5 pick from the last 5-10-15 years.... How many times would jake gardiner make up the difference between those 2.

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#55 CSimpson18
June 05 2012, 10:40PM
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@Jason Gregor

"Also those who believed this, you honestly think that moving up four spots in the draft was going to get you Kadri, Gardiner and Gustaffson."

Gustaffson and, at this point, Kadri, are not valuable assets and would be available for a 3rd round pick or less. Their names shouldnt even be mentioned in the same breath as Nail yakupov.

The question basically becomes, is Gardiner good enough to make up the difference between 1st and 5th. Keep in mind, Gardiner was recently traded for Francois Beauchemin. These types of players ARE available for far less than elite returns.

Look at a few 1st overall versus 5th overalls in recent drafts and tell me if you think Gardiner makes up for the difference.

Gardiner and Ryan Strome or RNH? Gardiner and Nino Niederreiter or Taylor Hall? Gardiner and Brayden Schenn or Tavares? Gardiner and Luke Schenn or Stamkos? Gardiner and Karl Alzner or Patrick Kane? Gardiner and Phil Kessel or Erik Johnson? Gardiner and Carey Price or Sidney Crosby? Gardiner and Blake Wheeler or Alex Ovechkin?

IMO I'd only do 1 out of the 8 (Kessel). At the very least these trades are debateable and not, as you imply, a no-brainer.

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#56 CSimpson18
June 05 2012, 10:40PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

You read my mind.

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#57 Wäx Män Riley
June 05 2012, 10:41PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Compare the #1 to the #5 pick from the last 5-10-15 years.... How many times would jake gardiner make up the difference between those 2.

I know this is only a small sample and I am cherry picking players, but (and they were picked at #6).....

Would you rather have Nail or Gagner or Brule?

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#58 Archaeologuy
June 05 2012, 10:49PM
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CSimpson18 wrote:

"Also those who believed this, you honestly think that moving up four spots in the draft was going to get you Kadri, Gardiner and Gustaffson."

Gustaffson and, at this point, Kadri, are not valuable assets and would be available for a 3rd round pick or less. Their names shouldnt even be mentioned in the same breath as Nail yakupov.

The question basically becomes, is Gardiner good enough to make up the difference between 1st and 5th. Keep in mind, Gardiner was recently traded for Francois Beauchemin. These types of players ARE available for far less than elite returns.

Look at a few 1st overall versus 5th overalls in recent drafts and tell me if you think Gardiner makes up for the difference.

Gardiner and Ryan Strome or RNH? Gardiner and Nino Niederreiter or Taylor Hall? Gardiner and Brayden Schenn or Tavares? Gardiner and Luke Schenn or Stamkos? Gardiner and Karl Alzner or Patrick Kane? Gardiner and Phil Kessel or Erik Johnson? Gardiner and Carey Price or Sidney Crosby? Gardiner and Blake Wheeler or Alex Ovechkin?

IMO I'd only do 1 out of the 8 (Kessel). At the very least these trades are debateable and not, as you imply, a no-brainer.

QFT

No more of this "move 4 spots" garbage. We're talking about the difference between Steven Stamkos and Luke Schenn for Heaven's sake.

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#59 Jason Gregor
June 05 2012, 10:54PM
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@CSimpson18

You think Kadri is only worth a 3rd round pick? I'd love to make trades with you. 81 points in 92 AHL games. Yes at the age of 20 he is a bum. Seriously, that is the most knee-jerk reaction ever.

Why does it matter who a player was traded for? So if one GM under rated him, or over rated him, then the next GM has to keep the same value as him.

Gardiner was traded before he played one NHL game, and most would say Burke fleeced the Ducks in that deal. But in your mind Gardiner isn't that valuable because Bob Murray was dumb enough to trade him for an aging D-man.

Did you notice that none of the #5 picks you mentioned, other than Schenn and Strome were centres. Way too early for anyone to suggest how good or average Schenn or Strome will be in next five years, so

Fact is centres have a bigger impact than wingers, and considering Oilers could land a C at number five, the trade would look much better if it was actually on the table.

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#60 Jason Gregor
June 05 2012, 10:56PM
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@Archaeologuy

By your logic then the #15 pick is even to the #1 or #2 pick, because Karlsson was unreal this year.

Suggsting the #5 pick this year will be like Schenn or that Yakupov will be the next Stamkos, one of the greatest snipers in last decade, is a stretch at best.

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#61 RichardBlue
June 05 2012, 11:03PM
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Isn't Nazem Kadri considered a BUST #5 overall pick? Gustaffson couldn't save a beach ball coming at him on his best day. And Jake the Snake Gardiner is only an incentive for getting Justin Shultz to sign here.

NAIL YAKUPOV may be the next Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin. He definitely has the potential. Could you imagine trading away "Rusty" Nail YAKUPOV only for him to become the next big superstar. This guy has the potential to be better than Hall Nuge or Ebz. But now we could become the awesome foursome or is PAAJARVI ever gets it going we could be the Fab Five!!!! Imagine that!

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#62 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 05 2012, 11:07PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

By your logic then the #15 pick is even to the #1 or #2 pick, because Karlsson was unreal this year.

Suggsting the #5 pick this year will be like Schenn or that Yakupov will be the next Stamkos, one of the greatest snipers in last decade, is a stretch at best.

Go ahead and look at the years a forward was taken #1 and compare him to the #5 pick...Only time 5 was better in the last 15 years was Stefan's year.... And in almost all of the cases a player the caliber or Gardiner wouldnt be near enough to make up the difference.

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#63 Simeon
June 05 2012, 11:16PM
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@Jason Gregor

Hey Jason Gregor,

When does Taylor Hall get the "C"? Everyone knows it inevitable he will be our next Captain, but when do u think we give to him. And does that make Eberle feel bad because maybe he thinks he should have it??

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#64 Jason Gregor
June 05 2012, 11:17PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Compare the #1 to the #5 pick from the last 5-10-15 years.... How many times would jake gardiner make up the difference between those 2.

So you know how good Gardiner is going to be? Interesting. Are you basing that on all the NHL games you've seen him play thus far, or because most D-men never improve as they get older?

Tell me why you are certain Gardiner won't be at least a top-four D-man, if not more?

He was the 17th overall pick in 2008, a class that now is producing some very good D-men. Doughty, Pietrangelo, Myers, Karlsson, Del Zotto and Bogosian is a rung below but still very young.

Gardiner stepped into NHL last year and didn't look out of place. Sure he struggled at times, like almost every 1st year D-man, but suggesting he has no chance of being a solid #3 or 4 is premature.

Yakupov will likely be a very good to great player, but if Gardiner becomes only #3 and either Galchenyuk or Grigorenko are #2 centres, then I'd argue that would help the Oilers much more than adding another scoring winger.

No one knows if any of the three will be a lock, but if the Leafs offered up Gardiner the Oilers would take a long look at that deal, but Burke is unlikely to deal him at this point.

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#65 Jason Gregor
June 05 2012, 11:21PM
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Simeon wrote:

Hey Jason Gregor,

When does Taylor Hall get the "C"? Everyone knows it inevitable he will be our next Captain, but when do u think we give to him. And does that make Eberle feel bad because maybe he thinks he should have it??

I doubt either gets the "C" before they wear an "A" first. Lots of pressure being the captain, especially in a hockey market.

I'm not sure it is a lock that Hall gets the C before Eberle though. Eberle isn't as gregarious as Hall, but he has lots of good leadership qualities.

It will be very interesting to see who the new coach gives the "A" to next year. He could do both, but if he only does one, you could argue that both are very deserving.

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#66 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 05 2012, 11:24PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

So you know how good Gardiner is going to be? Interesting. Are you basing that on all the NHL games you've seen him play thus far, or because most D-men never improve as they get older?

Tell me why you are certain Gardiner won't be at least a top-four D-man, if not more?

He was the 17th overall pick in 2008, a class that now is producing some very good D-men. Doughty, Pietrangelo, Myers, Karlsson, Del Zotto and Bogosian is a rung below but still very young.

Gardiner stepped into NHL last year and didn't look out of place. Sure he struggled at times, like almost every 1st year D-man, but suggesting he has no chance of being a solid #3 or 4 is premature.

Yakupov will likely be a very good to great player, but if Gardiner becomes only #3 and either Galchenyuk or Grigorenko are #2 centres, then I'd argue that would help the Oilers much more than adding another scoring winger.

No one knows if any of the three will be a lock, but if the Leafs offered up Gardiner the Oilers would take a long look at that deal, but Burke is unlikely to deal him at this point.

Who said he wouldn't be a #3 or #4 Dman? I'm saying a #3 or #4 Dman shouldnt be enough to move down from Stamkos/Tavares/Kane/Thorton ever ect to Schenn/Schenn/Alzner/Brewer ect ect

You are always saying the team that gets the beat player wins the trade..... I know which team almost always gets the best player in the above examples.

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#67 Jason Gregor
June 05 2012, 11:38PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

I'm not an advocate of trading the #1 pick, but those who think Tor would actually offer Gardiner are dreaming. It doesn't happen.Few teams move out from #1, because the offers are never worth it, and GMs have told me in the past they've never had a legit offer to even consider.

Look at the Pronger trade for instance...Sure Oilers lost it right away, but now five years later they have Eberle and Smid from that deal.

Some would argue that today and for next few years Oilers will win that deal.

Some trades take time to work out. Yakupov would likely be biggest impact player right away, but considering Oilers desperately need help at C and D, if that deal was offered I'd seriously think about it.

I will ask some NHL management types their thoughts tomorrow.

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#68 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 12:01AM
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For the record, i'd do that trade in a heartbeat. I can't understand the resistance that so many have to this idea.

Gardiner is worth it, it should even bring the Shultz possible UFA kid. Gardiner got 11 pts in 15 games in the playoffs for the Marlies last month. Strangely enough I would rather have Franson but that's just a hunch.

Kadri is a former #7 overall and is going to be a player eventually. He's almost a 1 ppg player in the A and is still extremely young.

Gustavsson has heart problems but he is cheap and can't be worse than Khabi. He would have to be signed before this deal went through. In a dream world he would agree to a 2-way deal and be the OKC #1 and first call-up.

With the #5 we get one of the "final five" on the Oiler's list.

Yakupov and Roy for Gardiner(D), Schultz(D), Reinhart(D), Kadri(C/W), Gustavsson(G).

Our defence is instantaneously set up to be fixed for years to come. I should be fired as GM if I don't pull the trigger on that one. Burke gets fleeced but it would take years to show it.

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#69 CSimpson18
June 06 2012, 12:03AM
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@Jason Gregor

Point by point:

"You think Kadri is only worth a 3rd round pick? I'd love to make trades with you.

Why would my being stingy with my franchises' assets make you want to trade with me? I don't get it.

"81 points in 92 AHL games. Yes at the age of 20 he is a bum. Seriously, that is the most knee-jerk reaction ever."

First off, he'll be 22 in October. I didn't call him a bum but the NHl is littered with middling prospects like this. He's undersized, defensively deficient and has failed to solidify a roster spot despite Toronto's desperate need in their top-6. He could easily go the way of Gilbert Brule and Patrick O'sullivan, and the potential upside just isnt that great.

"Why does it matter who a player was traded for? So if one GM under rated him, or over rated him, then the next GM has to keep the same value as him."

My comment was intended only to show that this type of player IS traded from time to time, and the return never has anything to do with an elite player like Nail Yakupov. Edmonton USED to be great at finding players like this for pennies on the dollar (Jan Hejda, Tom Gilbert, Sean Brown etc.) Just be patient and proactive. Look at Ryan Mcdonagh. Heck, Justin Schultz is on the radar already.

"Gardiner was traded before he played one NHL game, and most would say Burke fleeced the Ducks in that deal. But in your mind Gardiner isn't that valuable because Bob Murray was dumb enough to trade him for an aging D-man."

Of course Burke fleeced Anaheim. So why can't we do the same to some poor unsuspecting GM? Why does Edmonton always have to pay top dollar? We don't have to contend next year anyway, we have time. We don't NEED Gardiner, we NEED more elite talent.

"Did you notice that none of the #5 picks you mentioned, other than Schenn and Strome were centres. "

I'm not really sure what the relevance here is.

"Way too early for anyone to suggest how good or average Schenn or Strome will be in next five years, so" Of course it is. Just like it's way too early to suggest how good or average Nail, Grigorenko or Galchenyuk will be. Nevertheless, here we are talking about it.

"Fact is centres have a bigger impact than wingers, and considering Oilers could land a C at number five, the trade would look much better if it was actually on the table."

Best player available. Always with a lottery pick. Always. Draft the ace, don't get hung up on jacks and queens just because they play a position you need more. By your logic, should we just draft Murray at #1 instead of Yak?

Show me a top pick that was traded that actually benefited the team trading down. There's a reason *smart gms dont do it.

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#70 oilers2k12
June 06 2012, 12:34AM
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It doesnt matter what the oilers need right now, whoever they get will likely not make a huge impact for at least a few seasons..the one player that could make an immediate impact IS Yakupov. Murray may be good enough now to play in the NHL, but will he ever be a 1-2 guy? His junior numbers sure dont suggest so and playing on an average to bad team is no excuse as history has shown.. Gardiner has played one season in the nhl, will he ever be considered a great defencemen the way Yakupov very likely will be considered as a forward? Kadri..heard hes got work ethic issues, not a very fast skater either..we already have a harder working, more developed version of him in Gagner.. Gustaffson..why is he even mentioned?

Terrible trade..do you ever trade Hall, or RNH for those guys? Hell no, Yakupovs junior career suggests he will be every bit as good, if not better than those guys..

And oilers DO in fact need more scoring..outside of the fab three, whose here long term on the wings? Hemsky? Wouldnt bet on it..all wing prospects in the system are still huge question marks..oilers need Yakupov as much as they need defence, and centermen..just cuz oilers dont have a great defenceman or great second line center right now does not mean that Murray or Grigorenko, or Galchenyk would become great at those positions..you take the bpa and fix holes through other means..

Jeesh, whats wrong with kids these days..

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#71 CSimpson18
June 06 2012, 01:55AM
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@oilers2k12

You raise a very good question. Would anyone trade Hall for Galchenyuk, Gardiner, Kadri and Gustavson? RNH? I'd wager not.

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#72 Archaeologuy
June 06 2012, 08:02AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

By your logic then the #15 pick is even to the #1 or #2 pick, because Karlsson was unreal this year.

Suggsting the #5 pick this year will be like Schenn or that Yakupov will be the next Stamkos, one of the greatest snipers in last decade, is a stretch at best.

It really isnt that much of a stretch at all. History shows pretty evenly that the 1st pick is generally a special player and the dropoff can be very steep.

By my logic the 1st pick is better than all of the other picks by a wide margin, and that includes picks 2-5. With that in mind I cant see how it could be twisted that I think 15 is equal to #1.

Take pick 5 in any 5 draft years and compare it to pick 1. What would you rather have? Jake Gardiner's 30 points plus the kid at 5 or the guy who went #1?

I have no doubts. I would take the guy at 1.

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#73 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 08:15AM
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You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too. If you don't do this deal you are overestimating the value of a winger.

Do you want one winger that gets 70 pts a year, or do you want say a center that gets 60 (if we draft Galchenyuk) + 2 d-men that get 40? That's without including what Kadri will do in the future.

Or, if we draft Reinhart, would you rather one winger that gets 70 pts or 3 d-men that can get 30-40 pts? Again this doesn't mention Kadri yet.

This is a team game. Yakupov can't be on the ice all the time. If you think that the difference between Yakupov and Galchenyuk, or the difference between Yak and Reinhart isn't worth Gardiner AND Schultz AND a one ppg AHL 21 year old (Kadri) then you are either completely overestimating the value of a winger, or you just don't appreciate the future upside those 3 players can bring.

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#74 freeze
June 06 2012, 08:32AM
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Haha, let's do the deal if they take Khabby's bloated, vodka soaked contract back.

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#75 Archaeologuy
June 06 2012, 08:54AM
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@Oilanderp wrote:

You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too. If you don't do this deal you are overestimating the value of a winger.

Do you want one winger that gets 70 pts a year, or do you want say a center that gets 60 (if we draft Galchenyuk) + 2 d-men that get 40? That's without including what Kadri will do in the future.

Or, if we draft Reinhart, would you rather one winger that gets 70 pts or 3 d-men that can get 30-40 pts? Again this doesn't mention Kadri yet.

This is a team game. Yakupov can't be on the ice all the time. If you think that the difference between Yakupov and Galchenyuk, or the difference between Yak and Reinhart isn't worth Gardiner AND Schultz AND a one ppg AHL 21 year old (Kadri) then you are either completely overestimating the value of a winger, or you just don't appreciate the future upside those 3 players can bring.

There is nothing to suggest that the Oilers couldnt get Schultz anyway. He cant be counted on at all as a part of the deal.

Now we're down to 1 winger who should be getting 70 points or more in his prime, Probably more, or a 40 point (Maybe, that's a number he hasnt hit before) defenseman and the player chosen at 5. That kid taken at 5 probably wont be Galchenyuk considering the Oilers listed their top 5 and he wasnt on it. Take a look at the #5 picks from 2000-2010. Its a pretty sobering list of players. There are 2 guys in 10 years where you might think it was worth it to give up on the 1st pick if you also got assets. That's 06 with Kessel who has averaged 55 points a season since he started, and Vanek in 03 who has averaged 64 points. The rest are in bust territory like Niederreiter and Chistov, or are good but unspectacular players like the Schenns or Whitney.

The Oilers also had an AHL stud player with defensive issues. His name was Omark, I dont see the value in replacing him with Kadri. So no, I dont respect his potential upside. He hasnt shown it at the NHL level at all.

Basicly, in your scenario the Oilers win the trade, but only if Yakupov only ever hits 70 points, Gardiner posts career high numbers (something I learned to stop expecting after Gilbert's rookie year), Kadri overcomes all of his fatal flaws, and a UFA defenseman who is supposed to be better than Gardiner comes along for the ride.

Pretty big gamble.

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#76 Jason Gregor
June 06 2012, 08:59AM
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@CSimpson18

I never said I would trade the top pick, but that's because teams never get legit offers for it.

How many games of Kadri have you watched? You are writing off a 21-year-old already? And being stingy with assets, means you never gain anything of actual value.

We'll see in a few years how Kadri and Gardiner turn out.

Suggesting that my logic dictates taking a D-man shows you never read the site. Has nothing to do with this argument.

Trading down and staying in the top-five and acquiring a young, solid D-men is something to consider. Comparing that to taking Murray over Yakupov is not even close to what this point was.

I've always said you take best player available, but if you get a LEGIT offer then I'd consider it. Especially because the best player is a winger, and wingers aren't an area of weakness on the Oilers.

You don't think Gardiner is legit, but have to yet to say why. But considering you think Kadri is washed up at 21, I'm guessing you tend to write off players a tad prematurely.

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#77 CaptainLander
June 06 2012, 09:09AM
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@@Oilanderp

"You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too."

Being as we are playing a speculation game with no facts.

I keep Yakupov, he scores 35 goals and 62points as a rookie. Then I trade him for Weber after signing Suter this summer.

See now I have Weber and Suter for Yakupov, pretty good huh.

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#78 Jason Gregor
June 06 2012, 09:09AM
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@Archaeologuy

Having doubts in fine. The question is if a #2 centre and a #3 D-man would help this team more than another RW.

The fact previous #5 picks have been duds, has no bearing. Stu MacGregor never picked any of them. If you have faith that he drafts the right talent, then they would look at the deal.

I can't explain why #5 and #6 picks have been more duds than studs over the years, but that has no bearing on this deal.

If that was the case, wouldn't every team trade down from #5 to draft lower cause we've seen lots of solid players come from #7 and lower...

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#79 Archaeologuy
June 06 2012, 09:17AM
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@Jason Gregor

But based on the history, and thats all I have to go on, there is no guarantee that the kid at 5 will be a 2C or a 3D. And why wouldnt history have any bearing on the draft? It's a strong indicator of the 1st overall's value compared to a lower pick.

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#80 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 09:28AM
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@ Jason Gregor

"I'm not an advocate of trading the #1 pick, but those who think Tor would actually offer Gardiner are dreaming. It doesn't happen.Few teams move out from #1, because the offers are never worth it, and GMs have told me in the past they've never had a legit offer to even consider.

Look at the Pronger trade for instance...Sure Oilers lost it right away, but now five years later they have Eberle and Smid from that deal.

Some would argue that today and for next few years Oilers will win that deal.

Some trades take time to work out. Yakupov would likely be biggest impact player right away, but considering Oilers desperately need help at C and D, if that deal was offered I'd seriously think about it.

I will ask some NHL management types their thoughts tomorrow."

Well I'm relieved they wouldn't offer Gardiner + 5 for #1... then theirs no risk of the trade taking place.

2nd line centers are guys like Weiss, Grabovski and Brassard, second pairing Dmen are guys like Nick Leddy, Brad Stuart and Sami Salo. I don't know about you, but I'll take guys like Tavares, Stamkos and Hopkins over 2 of the guys I listed about, any day.

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#81 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 09:33AM
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@Archaeologuy

Basicly, in your scenario the Oilers win the trade, but only if Yakupov only ever hits 70 points, Gardiner posts career high numbers (something I learned to stop expecting after Gilbert's rookie year), Kadri overcomes all of his fatal flaws, and a UFA defenseman who is supposed to be better than Gardiner comes along for the ride. Pretty big gamble.

1. You forgot the #5 pick, which will probably be Reinhart if the Oilers do this. Unrealistic to expect this guy to get 30 pts in his prime? Why is Stu looking at him in the top 5 if he is just some 10-20 pt shutdown guy?

2. You are suffering from Tom Gilbert Syndrome if you think it is unrealistic to expect a 22 year old (he turned 22 a few days ago)d-man to actually improve as time goes on. He got 30 pts in his rookie year, and looked like a stud in the Marlie/OKC series that I saw a few weeks ago. It is not a gamble for me to think that he will be getting 40 pts a year in his prime. He could get more but I'm not betting on it.

3. I am betting that having Schultz's good college buddy Jake Gardiner combined with the opportunity at defence available here gives the Oiler's by far the best chance to sign Justin Schultz. That's what a GM should do, give us the best chance possible to succeed. Signing Schultz would be a HUGE success, as in take years off the rebuild success.

4. Kadri = Omark!?!? Come on man, Kadri is 21 and Omark is 25. That's a million years apart in development terms, never mind the crappy public attitude issue. If you want to discount Kadri as a bust at this point there is little I can say to change your mind.

I bet that in the long run even without Schultz signing here (which is not the point, the point is to put your team in the best position to sign him) this trade will be viewed as an overpay by TO.

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#82 Jason Gregor
June 06 2012, 09:34AM
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@Archaeologuy

Sure #5 for #1 likely means 1 is better, but add in Gardiner and that changes things.

Time will tell. And unless the Oilers actually pick at five we won't know how they would take, so the point will never be proven.

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#83 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 09:37AM
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@CaptainLander

Why don't you tell me where the wild speculation is on my part instead of flying off the handle and adding nothing to the conversation?

All I am trying to show is that trade scenario is such a massive overpay by T.O. that it would never happen in reality.

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#84 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 09:44AM
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@ Jason Gregor

"Having doubts in fine. The question is if a #2 centre and a #3 D-man would help this team more than another RW.

The fact previous #5 picks have been duds, has no bearing. Stu MacGregor never picked any of them. If you have faith that he drafts the right talent, then they would look at the deal.

I can't explain why #5 and #6 picks have been more duds than studs over the years, but that has no bearing on this deal.

If that was the case, wouldn't every team trade down from #5 to draft lower cause we've seen lots of solid players come from #7 and lower..."

The fact that number #5 picks (and it's not just #5) have been duds is everything!

History has proven that draft picks get exponentially worse as you move down the order.

Even just the drop off from the avearge #1 to the average #3 is huge! Going to 5 compounds it.

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#85 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 09:47AM
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BTW, This site REALLY needs to fix the quote function.

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#86 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 09:48AM
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@ SK

It's speculation that landing Gardiner = Landing Schultz

It's speculation that Yakapov is a 70 point player

It's speculation that Whomever is 2C is a 60 point player.

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#87 CaptainLander
June 06 2012, 09:51AM
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@@Oilanderp

Your seeming fact that having Gardiner will get you Schultz

See - OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

It bothers me when people make things up and use it as an factual argument, it make me fly off the handle apparently.

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#88 Cody
June 06 2012, 09:56AM
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I would not have a lot of interest in Kadri or Monster.

If they said Schenn, Gardiner, and pick #5 for Roy and our #1 I would jump at it. Two more very solid d prospects, plus the inside track to Schultz would improve our future immensely. If Galnychuck was still available at 5 we would be laughing. Without his injury I believe this would have been another Hall or Seguin race. On a do-over I would still take Hall, but not if Seguin came with Schenn, Gardiner, and Schultz.

If we got Gal with the 5th I say we win this trade by a huge margin.

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#89 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 10:19AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

@ SK

It's speculation that landing Gardiner = Landing Schultz

It's speculation that Yakapov is a 70 point player

It's speculation that Whomever is 2C is a 60 point player.

But it isn't speculation that having Gardiner gives you a better chance than the other 29 teams to land Schultz. It has value.

Yes it is speculation about how many points this year's draftees will achieve in their prime, but is it unreasonable speculation?

@CaptainLander Nowhere did I try to present my opinions as fact. Maybe I need to qualify every fun armchair GM session on this site with "Oh yeah and in no way does my opinion represent fact all rights reserved™" but it would be better if you would, like a normal person, assume that.

The fact is, a lot of people on here seem to be rejecting this pretend trade proposal outright, and I think that says something about us as fans.

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#90 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 10:24AM
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Cody brings up a very important point. This draft year is not like the others. Several of the top picks had been injured most of the year. This skews their value. Who can say what Galchenyuk would be rated if he had played all year? Who can say what Grigorenko would have done without mono? How does Couturier look now? Would Fowler still go so late in a redraft?

Some of these players are going to slide and some team is going to get huge value for their late top 5 or 10 pick.

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#91 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 10:24AM
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@ SK

Well going through history, I'd bet you are low balling what a 1st OV typically scores and over rating what a #5 OV typically scores.

I would think it's closer to 75 points vs 45 points (on average)

then it is 70 points vs 60 points

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#92 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 10:26AM
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@ SK

"You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too"

Is essentially stating your opinion as fact.

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#93 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 10:27AM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

you can use HTML codes to quote if you wanted, just put

(blockquote) blah blah blah (/blockquote)

Substitue the brackets with greater/less than signs

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#94 Lummeropenet
June 06 2012, 10:40AM
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Draft Yakupov. This will squeeze out a player or two from the middle or bottom of the line-up, either right away or in a year or so. Then make a move for need. There will be a Murray or Rielly or Reinhart in the future to deal for or sign. In the mean time the oil shouldn't have a problem scoring (like New Jersey has). There are always players available out side the draft who will sign on to a team that is closer to the top than the bottom.

Burke traded Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton and 2012nd rounder Jared Knight for Phil Kessel.

Draft Yakupov and deal from strength later if needed.

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#95 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 10:40AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

@ SK

"You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too"

Is essentially stating your opinion as fact.

I really believe that if the Oilers had Gardiner, Schultz would sign here. It is a fact (that it is my opinion).

If we drafted Yak, would anyone trade Eberle and Roy for Gardiner, the #5, Kadri and Gustavsson?

It might amount to sacrilege, but I guess I would. I don't want to trade Eberle, but I think I would for this package. The #5 this year will probably be looked back on as a #2 or #3 in a redraft.

EDIT: For the record I'd rather have Eberle and his relationship with Hall than Yakupov. I'm just playing with the trade idea by substituting Eberle for Yak to reframe the issue and see where it leads.

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#96 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
June 06 2012, 10:47AM
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@ SK

I think trading great for a bunch of good, rarely works Guys like Gardiner, Kadri and a long list of 5th OV picks are alot easier to aquire using other methods then guys like Eberle and Yak are.

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#97 @Oilanderp
June 06 2012, 10:50AM
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The thing is, I don't think T.O. would do this trade? Why?

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#98 CSimpson18
June 06 2012, 11:37AM
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@Jason Gregor

With all due respect, Jason, you keep putting words in my mouth.

I never said Gardiner isn't legit. I said his inclusion is not worth missing out on Yakupov. Good gms find players of his caliber without giving up elite talent.

I never said Kadri is washed up. I said he's not an attractive piece in a trade that would send Yakupov to Toronto.

The gist of my argument is that you don't trade a dollar bill for 4 quarters. Not at this stage of the rebuild, when acquiring elite talent that will be under contract for 7 years (and guaranteed cheap for 3) should be the primary focus. We may never have this opportunity again.

The pieces suggested to be coming from Toronto in this fake rumour are fine and would garner a nice return. I just don't think it's enough to ship off a talent of Yakupov's stature. In most trades, the team trading the best player almost always loses.

Would you trade Hall or RNH for the package in question?

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#99 CSimpson18
June 06 2012, 11:49AM
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@Oilanderp wrote:

You have to remember that getting Gardiner = getting Shultz too. If you don't do this deal you are overestimating the value of a winger.

Do you want one winger that gets 70 pts a year, or do you want say a center that gets 60 (if we draft Galchenyuk) + 2 d-men that get 40? That's without including what Kadri will do in the future.

Or, if we draft Reinhart, would you rather one winger that gets 70 pts or 3 d-men that can get 30-40 pts? Again this doesn't mention Kadri yet.

This is a team game. Yakupov can't be on the ice all the time. If you think that the difference between Yakupov and Galchenyuk, or the difference between Yak and Reinhart isn't worth Gardiner AND Schultz AND a one ppg AHL 21 year old (Kadri) then you are either completely overestimating the value of a winger, or you just don't appreciate the future upside those 3 players can bring.

Your logic is flawed. It's not 1 "70 Point" winger versus 3 30-40 point dmen. It's 1 potential 100 point winger and 3 dmen acquired through other trades, UFA or developed internally versus 3 30-40 point dmen.

30-40 point dmen are acquired fairly often. And never as a return for elite talent. You should know this as an Oiler fan, where we've been starved for elite talent for a generation but have always had our share of pretty not-bad.

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#100 Wäx Män Riley
June 06 2012, 12:48PM
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@Jason Gregor

You think Kadri is only worth a 3rd round pick? I'd love to make trades with you. 81 points in 92 AHL games. Yes at the age of 20 he is a bum. Seriously, that is the most knee-jerk reaction ever.

I know there is an age difference, but Omark's 47pts in 46 AHL games, or Alex Giroux tearing the AHL up over his career are just 2 examples of the difference in caliber from the A to the N.

They both out-performed Kadri, and I would like to see more than a 3rd round pick for either.

Khabbi has similar NHL numbers to Gustavsson, so unless you get rid of Khabbi, it makes little difference, no?

And I have no idea about Gardiner, but don't the Oilers already have a bunch of 3-4 d-men?

I have a really hard time making that trade.

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