GAGNER/OILERS LIKELY TO SETTLE

Jason Gregor
July 16 2012 11:30AM

Sam Gagner's arbitration hearing is scheduled for this Friday, but the chances are slim an arbitrator will decide his next contract. Last year 24 players filed for arbitration, but only Shea Weber sat in front of an arbitrator, and he was awarded a record-setting one-year $7.5 million deal.

In the past two years 55 players have filed for arbitration, but only six went the distance.

Weber was the only one in 2011, while Tim Kennedy, Clarke MacArthur, Blake Wheeler, Antti Niemi and Jannik Hansen all faced an arbitrator and "won" in 2010.

Hansen was awarded $825,000 for one year and stayed with the Canucks while Wheeler got a one-year, $2.2 million deal with the Bruins.

Kennedy was awarded $1 million on a one-year, one-way contract from the Sabres. He won his case on July 29th, but on August 2nd the Sabres put Kennedy on waivers. No one claimed him and the next day the Sabres bought him out at $333,333.00. He signed a one-year $550,000 with the Rangers later that month, but spent the entire year in the AHL. He ended up making $883,333 that year.

MacArthur was awarded a one-year $2.4 million deal, but the Thrashers walked away from it and he became a UFA. He ended up signing with the Leafs for a year at $1.4 million.

Niemi was awarded $2.75 million, but the Hawks elected to walk away due to their tight cap situation. Niemi ended up signing for one year with the Sharks for $2 million.

Even though MacArthur, Niemi and Kennedy "won" their cases with an arbitrator they ended up making less money playing for other teams. I wonder if that is why so few players end up in front of an arbitrator, because even if they win, they can end up losing.

HOW LONG WILL DEAL BE?

Gagner will likely make between $3.1 and $3.5 million on his new deal, but the better question is how long will his new contract be?

Most arbitration cases end up being one-year deals, so a multi-year deal from the Oilers will instantly be more enticing as long as it is a legit offer.

History suggests there is a good chance the Oilers and Gagner could still sign a long-term deal despite their impending arbitration date.

In 2008, Brooks Laich signed a three-year, $6.2 million deal to stay with the Capitals, Dennis Wideman signed a four-year, $15.75 million pact with the Bruins, Valtteri Filppulla inked a five-year, $15 million deal with the Wings while Pierre-Marc Bouchard signed for five years at $20.4 million.

In 2009, Kyle Brodziak and Tuomo Ruutu signed three-year deals with Minnesota and Carolina, while Travis Zajac and the Devils agreed to a four-year deal before their arbitration hearings.

David Perron filed for arbitration this year, but he signed a four-year deal with the Blues later that day.

My best guess is that Gagner signs for one year, but the Oilers might be better off signing him for three. They wrap him up at a decent price and it likely would make him more attractive to a trading partner. It is easier to trade for a player when you know he won't be a UFA the next season.

PECKHAM SIGNS

The Oilers announced via twitter that they have inked Theo Peckham to a one-year deal worth $1.075 million. The Oilers now have seven D-men on one-way deals, and Justin Schultz on a two-way.

Whitney, N. Schultz, Petry, Smid, Sutton, Potter, Peckham and J. Schultz could all start the season with the Oilers if they choose to keep eight defenders.

In 2010, Peckham was the Oilers 2nd most consistent blueline before Nathan Horton KO'ed him with a heavy shot. Peckham wasn't the same player last year, but I like this signing.

The Oilers depth has been an issue the past few years, and signing Peckham gives them some needed depth on the backend. He needs to regain his on-ice swagger and confidence. If Peckham shows up at camp in great shape and ready to compete for a job on the 3rd pairing he could be a solid addition.

The onus is on Peckham to be ready come September, or whenever camp starts, and prove to the Oilers that he can be as reliable in 2012/2013 as he was in 2010/2011.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Jason Begger
July 16 2012, 11:33AM
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I loved seeing Teddy Peckman's fist go into Claude Lemieux's face.

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#2 A-Mc
July 16 2012, 11:50AM
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Anyway, i can't wait for what is to come from the 2 topics discussed in this article. Once the 2nd Center is signed and now that our 7th 1-way D man is signed, it really makes you wonder which contract(s) are purly for trade purposes.

Tambolini, along with many followers of the Oil, want another solid Defenseman on the roster. Having 8x 1-ways and 1x 2-way just wouldn't work if they did sign someone for money, so i really wonder which of the D would be going the other way in a trade.

History tells us that the Defense we see today is the D we'll see on opening night, but there's always that little nugget from Tambo that keeps this oiler fan pondering "what if..".

I sure hope the season isn't delayed. I can barely stand the wait until October.. Hockey is the only sport i give a damn about so summer time is rough for me.

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#3 Smokey
July 16 2012, 12:15PM
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Good for Teddy Peckman, hope the Oilers can get that last remaining top 4 defender.

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#4 jonny94
July 16 2012, 12:30PM
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don't like the Peckham signing but good for him.

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#5 Will
July 16 2012, 12:33PM
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Steve Tambillini: "We obviously have to get better on defense and would ideally like to sign one or two top four defense." He says and then turns to an adviser that whispers something in his ear. "What's that? Oh okay. So as I was saying, ideally we'd like to sign 3 or 4 of the defense we already have and hope they can bounce back."

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#6 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 16 2012, 12:44PM
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Get the man signed, 3 years min... pref 5.

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#7 roger
July 16 2012, 12:54PM
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one of my favorite oiler moments over the past three years.......... all in all that is kind of sad.

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#8 Reg Dunlop
July 16 2012, 01:09PM
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A one year deal for Sam is better than going to arbitration with the potential accompianing hard feelings. Longer term, say 3X3.5, would be better. The oil need more of a physical presence, no doubt, but why focus solely on the 2C spot? Sam is a decent 2C with upside. I would rather our bottom 6 and 3rd defence pair supply the needed gristle. This makes Peckman's signing a goodie.

I like Sam and so should you.

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I think 3 years works for both Gagner and the Oil.

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#10 Eddie Edmonton
July 16 2012, 01:15PM
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I really hope the Oilers don't sign Stan Ganger to anything more than one year contract, two if they have to.

Theo better bring his A game to training camp, otherwise I can see him being put on waivers to OKC.

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#11 Quicksilver ballet
July 16 2012, 01:24PM
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This has to go to arbitration. If only to have the Oilers wheel out the Wellwood comparisons, that would be worth the price of admission alone to see their reactions. Who knows why the Oilers choose to stomp on Ryan Smyth types and then throw caution into the wind on the Horc,Hemsky,Dubnyk type deals.

Extending him is a must, if only to be able to package him up and get something better in return.

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#12 Randy
July 16 2012, 01:34PM
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@EddieEdmonton July

I really hope the Oilers don't sign "Stan Gagner" either. Guy hasn't played a single minute in the league....probably overvalued.

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#13 Dman09
July 16 2012, 01:52PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

A one year deal for Sam is better than going to arbitration with the potential accompianing hard feelings. Longer term, say 3X3.5, would be better. The oil need more of a physical presence, no doubt, but why focus solely on the 2C spot? Sam is a decent 2C with upside. I would rather our bottom 6 and 3rd defence pair supply the needed gristle. This makes Peckman's signing a goodie.

I like Sam and so should you.

Got to agree, yes I would like to see a bigger rougher option at 2C but the bottom 6 is much more of a problem right now and last season showed that. Personally I think anything 4mill and under is fair value for Gags compaired to similar players in the league, I would offer him up to 5 years. 3years at 3.5 or 5 years at 4.0. Peckham will take over Sutton's spot after this season.

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#14 BurkeTheTurd
July 16 2012, 02:08PM
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@ OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

I prefer 5... 3.79 * 5 = Lots of Gagner chat for years to come on Oilersnation

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#15 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 16 2012, 02:10PM
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@ BurkTheTurd

We can fight over his size and speed until he retires.

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#16 madjam
July 16 2012, 02:21PM
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Do we need Gagner ,or might we be better off with an upgrade ? Is he that important to team ? I don't know if he is to be honest .

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#17 book¡e
July 16 2012, 02:32PM
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I think they should negotiate a clause into his contract that forces him to accept the name Sam Gagne Gagner , that way I would find the internet a less annoying place.

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#18 BurkeTheTurd
July 16 2012, 02:45PM
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@ OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

hopefully retires as an Oiler so the debate about hanging his number from the rafters will spark conversations for years to come

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#19 bleedingoil
July 16 2012, 03:00PM
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Eddie Edmonton wrote:

I really hope the Oilers don't sign Stan Ganger to anything more than one year contract, two if they have to.

Theo better bring his A game to training camp, otherwise I can see him being put on waivers to OKC.

You officially have all of your commenting rights revoked. I hope this is your first day as a Oiler fan, and you may be honorably discharged. Otherwise, you have been court marshalled sir.....go home.

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#20 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 16 2012, 03:07PM
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@ Madjam

Tough concept I know, but I think it's safe to say we'd be better off with an upgrade anywhere on our line-up.

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#21 nathan
July 16 2012, 03:17PM
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Throw in another year and make it Sam Gagne Ganger Gagner to be safe.

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#22 Quicksilver ballet
July 16 2012, 03:29PM
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...thought all along it was Simon Gagner.

who knew.

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#23 Greg Stink | ESPN
July 16 2012, 03:31PM
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Oh well, Let the arbitrator give him a one year deal. Even if he gets way too much money, it will become clear based on his production this season, setting the stage for the appropriate contract next summer. A better plan than signing him to a long term deal that he may never live up to.

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#24 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 03:32PM
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madjam wrote:

Do we need Gagner ,or might we be better off with an upgrade ? Is he that important to team ? I don't know if he is to be honest .

Nope. No upgrades needed. Can we downgrade? Let's trade Eberle for Wellwood, then the 2 can go head to head.

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#25 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 03:34PM
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Greg Stink | ESPN wrote:

Oh well, Let the arbitrator give him a one year deal. Even if he gets way too much money, it will become clear based on his production this season, setting the stage for the appropriate contract next summer. A better plan than signing him to a long term deal that he may never live up to.

A one year deal takes him to UFA status. Then he walks for nothing after being groomed for 6 years.

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#26 Oiler AL
July 16 2012, 03:48PM
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3 year = $10 million deal would be fare.I think if goes to arbitration, he would get something norther of $4 million.$10 for 3 years would be a bargain compared to Hemskys deal.If Oilers are sticking to a two year deal, then I think they would have to offers him $3.75 per. He's not the greatest center man out there, but Tambelini hasnt come up with anything better in the last couple of years.

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#27 Eddie Edmonton
July 16 2012, 03:59PM
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bleedingoil wrote:

You officially have all of your commenting rights revoked. I hope this is your first day as a Oiler fan, and you may be honorably discharged. Otherwise, you have been court marshalled sir.....go home.

You remind me of a girl I once knew. She was very gullable-couldn't sense sarcasm, but had other talents just like you.

Oilers players go by the names we call them, not by the ones on the back of the jersey or the ones their parents gave them.

I think this might be your first day as an Oilers fan;-')

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#28 Rumpelstiltskin
July 16 2012, 04:10PM
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Is it just me, or was Peckham the player that opposing teams would want on the ice to capitalize on?? I remember reading that somewhere after some pitiful performances in consecutive games from Pecks.

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#29 Randy
July 16 2012, 04:16PM
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@Eddie

Pretty sure you calling him Stan Ganger isn't the same as Grapes saying Teddy Peckman, but ok then. Nice backpeddle there with the sarcasm claim.

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#30 The Soup Fascist
July 16 2012, 04:23PM
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@ EddieEdmonton

Sorry. Like Randy and bleeding oil, apparently I missed the sarcasm / irony / humor in calling Sam Gagner, "Stan Gagner" as well. If possible, please explain it to me S-L-O-W-L-Y. Dumb old me just thought it was a typo, but now I am curious.

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#31 PeOiler
July 16 2012, 04:27PM
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@Reg Dunlop, "I like Sam and so should you."

Gold. I love it. You win.

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#32 Randy
July 16 2012, 04:28PM
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Spelling one name wrong would have been a typo, spelling both wrong...well that's something else entirely. He spelled Gagner wrong too. I guess it's weird joke day or something.

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#33 Randy
July 16 2012, 04:49PM
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Update: as per the twittersphere, Oil sign Gagner to a 3 yr deal at 10.5 million.

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#34 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 04:51PM
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Randy wrote:

Spelling one name wrong would have been a typo, spelling both wrong...well that's something else entirely. He spelled Gagner wrong too. I guess it's weird joke day or something.

Good for Therron Postma getting signed to his 1 yer deal today. If he can get back into shape, The Oildeners might have a good couple of shut down defenders between him and Loktiov Sminder.

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#35 Randy
July 16 2012, 04:53PM
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@Wäx Män Riley

Right, and Jason Ebersme can pot goals on all those sick passes from Ronnie Nugat Heppins. Make up your own name day is fun! Who cares about the jerseys when you can call them whatever you want?

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#36 Randy
July 16 2012, 04:58PM
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Err, maybe hold off on that contract info. Just noticed it came from some pretty notably dubious sources a la, HockeyInsiderr.

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#37 bleedingoil
July 16 2012, 05:07PM
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@Eddie Edmonton

Now I would assume the gullable content you were talking about is when you told her you were an Oiler fan, and the sarcasm was the size of your (hockey) stick. I apologize for not sensing your sarcasm because I couldn't decipher if it was the name mixup or the fact you actually think it is in our best interest to sign him for one lone year. Maybe it was both. TBH, I think Little Sammy should get a 3 year 10 million dollar contract. Lets lock him up past his UFA status and go from there. One year does nothing for us and it would be a slap in the face for Mr Gagner. 3 - 3.5 mil would put him in the range of Couture, Koivu, Duscesne, Brassard.....not bad company.

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#38 Randy
July 16 2012, 05:23PM
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@bleedingoil

Well there are tweets out there that a deal was done, though some say 3 yrs for 10 mil and some are now saying 4 yrs for 13 mil. Nothing from solid sources though so it could be a load of bunk.

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#39 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 05:26PM
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Randy wrote:

Update: as per the twittersphere, Oil sign Gagner to a 3 yr deal at 10.5 million.

Did Treena and Garfield say that? Or HockeyyInsiderr? Was it #CONFIRMED ? The caps mean it's real.

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#40 CDean
July 16 2012, 05:28PM
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I am curious that there has been no news of what either side has been doing in the negotiations. Usually the media has some knowledge or speculation about what each side is asking for or has been offered. Strange to only have silence and only an expectation to get the deal done.

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#41 Randy
July 16 2012, 05:28PM
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@Wax Man It was insiderr, so probably BS. Others are stating 4 yr now. Some non-official Oilers twitter page even has it in French. LOL. Wait to hear I guess.

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#42 bleedingoil
July 16 2012, 05:31PM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

Did Treena and Garfield say that? Or HockeyyInsiderr? Was it #CONFIRMED ? The caps mean it's real.

I wont believe it until i see it from Eklund

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#43 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 05:36PM
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Randy wrote:

@bleedingoil

Well there are tweets out there that a deal was done, though some say 3 yrs for 10 mil and some are now saying 4 yrs for 13 mil. Nothing from solid sources though so it could be a load of bunk.

My sources say they are close to a deal in the 3.5-4 range. Just hammering out the last of it. Oilers want more than a 1 year deal, Gagner looking for 5. As per Donkey Kong. Confirmed by Bob-Omb.

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#44 Wäx Män Riley
July 16 2012, 05:37PM
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bleedingoil wrote:

I wont believe it until i see it from Eklund

Pure gold.

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#45 Randy
July 16 2012, 05:45PM
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Hey, like I said, dubious sources so probably BS but you gotta think it would be somewhere in that range, no? Maybe not as many years, but price point.

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#46 The Soup Fascist
July 16 2012, 06:58PM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

My sources say they are close to a deal in the 3.5-4 range. Just hammering out the last of it. Oilers want more than a 1 year deal, Gagner looking for 5. As per Donkey Kong. Confirmed by Bob-Omb.

Funny, my sources are saying, "put down your damn Blackberry and take out the garbage" ;)

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#47 a lg dubl dubl
July 16 2012, 07:45PM
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I heard Gagner signed for Parise $$...y'know never won a cup but sure tries hard and a real good team player.

I kid I kid, I hope they get Samwise locked down for nothin less than 3 @ 3.5 per

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#48 Dog Train
July 16 2012, 08:07PM
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I can't see us going to arbitration with Sam. 3 years at 3.5 sounds good to me but I guess it's a matter of what Sam's camp is looking for.

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#49 Dwol
July 16 2012, 08:21PM
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Give Gags a one year deal. Watch play his ass off. Then trade him for someone at the dead line. He need to adjust his attitude! Plus we need size up front.

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#50 Pouzar99
July 16 2012, 08:36PM
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David Perron. Does that name ring a bell? I bet it rings one with Sam Gagner and his agent. If he isn't their submitted comparable I would be very surprised. Perron is a second line winger for St. Louis, 6-0, 180, not a big hitter but a solid, skilled player.

Perron was a first rounder who has played five years in the league. His best seasons are 50 and 47 points, his PPG average is .60 (SG's is .61.) He had a major injury which cost him most of the 10-11 season and the beginning of last season but ended up scoring 42 points in 57 games.

Perron filed for arbitration when Gagner did and then signed a 4-year-deal for $15.25 million, just over $3.8 million a year. You may believe the Blues paid too much or that Perron is a better player but on paper he looks like Gagner's twin brother, except that he isn't a center and recovered from a major injury.

I predict Gagner signs for something similar.

I don't know who the Oil's chosen comparable is but given the history of arbitration hearings this looks like the winner to me.

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