How many goals will Jordan Eberle score next season?

Jonathan Willis
July 16 2012 09:27AM

Jordan Eberle had a great 2011-12 season. However, his goal-scoring was largely shooting percentage-based – does that mean it’s going to drop off, or is Eberle one of the league’s rare high-percentage shooters?

To try and answer that question, I decided to look at a group of 15 players since the mid-1990’s who had posted shooting percentage totals similar to Jordan Eberle over their first two seasons. The list is as follows, with the group average compared to Eberle’s totals over his first two seasons at the bottom:

Rk Player From To GP G A PTS S S%
1 Mark Parrish 1999 2000 154 50 31 81 281 17.8
2 Jonathan Toews 2008 2009 146 58 65 123 339 17.1
3 Paul Stastny 2007 2008 148 52 97 149 323 16.1
4 Alexander Radulov 2007 2008 145 44 51 95 279 15.8
5 Evgeni Malkin 2007 2008 160 80 111 191 514 15.6
6 Steven Stamkos 2009 2010 161 74 67 141 478 15.5
7 Lee Stempniak 2006 2007 139 41 38 79 266 15.4
8 Thomas Vanek 2006 2007 163 68 64 132 441 15.4
9 Ilya Kovalchuk 2002 2003 146 67 51 118 441 15.2
10 Ryan Malone 2004 2006 158 44 43 87 292 15.1
11 Dany Heatley 2002 2003 159 67 89 156 454 14.8
12 Martin Havlat 2001 2002 145 41 51 92 278 14.7
13 Alexander Semin 2004 2007 129 48 47 95 335 14.3
14 Sidney Crosby 2006 2007 160 75 147 222 528 14.2
15 Jonathan Cheechoo 2003 2004 147 37 26 63 269 13.8
  Average     151 56 65 121 368 15.3
* Jordan Eberle 2011 2012 147 52 67 119 338 15.4

As we can see, the averages compare very well to Eberle’s two-year totals, so this would seem to be a comparable group. How did they do in their third NHL season?

To answer that question, I’ve nixed Alexander Radulov (he left for Russia after his second NHL season) and gathered the numbers for this group’s third year:

Player GP G SH SH%
Mark Parrish 70 17 123 13.8%
Jonathan Toews 76 25 202 12.4%
Paul Stastny 45 11 118 9.3%
Evgeni Malkin 82 35 290 12.1%
Steven Stamkos 82 45 272 16.5%
Lee Stempniak 80 13 162 8.0%
Thomas Vanek 82 36 240 15.0%
Ilya Kovalchuk 81 41 341 12.0%
Ryan Malone 64 16 125 12.8%
Dany Heatley 31 13 83 15.7%
Martin Havlat 67 24 179 13.4%
Alexander Semin 63 26 185 14.1%
Sidney Crosby 53 24 173 13.9%
Jonathan Cheechoo 82 56 317 17.7%
Total 958 382 2810 13.6%
Average 68 27 201 13.6%

The games played total is lower, but I wouldn’t read too much into that – it’s really a function of three players (Stastny, Heatley and Crosby) missing time in their third seasons. Overall, shooting percentage fell significantly – Stamkos and Cheechoo were the significant exceptions, though Cheechoo would fall off the map over the next two seasons – but an increase in shot rates made up the vast majority of the difference.

Based on this group, we would expect Jordan Eberle to see a jump in total shots, a slight dip in shooting percentage, and maintain similar goal-scoring numbers next season. Or would we?

The Other Way of Looking At It

In our initial look at this problem, we considered the first and second years of these players as one sample, not bothering to split up those two seasons to see how much progress each player made. If we do that, how does Eberle compare to the average?

Player 1GP 1G 1S 1SH% 2GP 2G 2S 2SH%
Mark Parrish 73 24 129 18.6% 81 26 152 17.1%
Jonathan Toews 64 24 144 16.7% 82 34 195 17.4%
Paul Stastny 82 28 185 15.1% 66 24 138 17.4%
Evgeni Malkin 78 33 242 13.6% 82 47 272 17.3%
Steven Stamkos 79 23 181 12.7% 82 51 297 17.2%
Lee Stempniak 57 14 100 14.0% 82 27 166 16.3%
Thomas Vanek 81 25 204 12.3% 82 43 237 18.1%
Ilya Kovalchuk 65 29 184 15.8% 81 38 257 14.8%
Ryan Malone 81 22 139 15.8% 77 22 153 14.4%
Dany Heatley 82 26 202 12.9% 77 41 252 16.3%
Martin Havlat 73 19 133 14.3% 72 22 145 15.2%
Alexander Semin 52 10 92 10.9% 77 38 243 15.6%
Sidney Crosby 81 39 278 14.0% 79 36 250 14.4%
Jonathan Cheechoo 66 9 94 9.6% 81 28 175 16.0%
Average 72 23 160 14.3% 79 34 208 16.1%
Jordan Eberle 69 18 158 11.4% 78 34 180 18.9%

In the first year, things look very comparable – Eberle’s shooting percentage (and consequently his goal-scoring) is a bit lower than the group average, but overall he’s in the range. The group managed 2.22 shots/game, on average; Eberle managed 2.30.

In year two, things change dramatically – because while our average group enjoys a modest bump in shooting percentage and a big bump in shots-per-game (they go from 2.22 shots/game up to 2.63 shots/game), Eberle sees no increase in shots-per-game and a massive increase in shooting percentage. Eberle literally goes from firing 2.30 shots per game in his rookie season to 2.31 as a sophomore.

The fact that Eberle’s increase – unlike our group average – is based on shooting percentage and not an increase in shots is troubling, because it raises doubts that his shot totals will increase in the same manner that the group as a whole did. We also know, barely short of a certainty, that his shooting percentage is going to fall from his second year totals.

Knowing what we do, there are three individuals on the chart above worth looking at in more detail: Paul Stastny, Sidney Crosby and Jonathan Cheechoo. What makes those three interesting?

Stastny and Crosby are of interest because they’re the only two players from our sample to see their shot totals in their second season either decrease or show zero growth. Every other player saw their shot totals improve significantly. In both cases, the players went on to show negligible growth over the rest of their careers to date. Stastny fired 2.26 shots/game as a rookie, while on his career he’s fired 2.37 shots/game; Crosby fired 3.43 shots/game as a rookie and his career average currently sits at 3.39 shots/game.

Cheechoo is of interest because he’s the only player on this list with a similar improvement in shooting percentage. Like Eberle – and like nobody else on this list – his shooting percentage jumped ~160 percent from year one to year two. In Cheechoo’s case, he was able to ride the shooting percentage wave for one more season before a long, slow, slide pushed him into the AHL. In his last NHL season (with Ottawa in 2009-10) he scored five goals on 117 shots (4.27 SH%) and he’s now been an ~11% shooter over two AHL seasons.

What are you saying!?!?

It’s important not to draw too firm a conclusion from the players we’ve looked at above – this is a small group and it gets smaller when we look at three individuals who relate to Eberle in some way. However, based on this data, if I had to project how Eberle fares next season I’d go with the following:

  • A small increase in shots/game
  • A large decrease in shooting percentage
  • A significant decrease in goals scored

If I’m forced to pick a number? Over a full season I’d guess Eberle fires the puck ~190 times and scores ~26 goals. There’s any number of ways that could be wrong – particularly if Eberle finds a way to increase the number of shots he takes this season in a significant way – but if I were drawing a line in the sand that’s where I’d put it. I do not expect him to match 2011-12's totals in 2012-13.

THIS WEEK BY JONATHAN WILLIS

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 BurkeTheTurd
July 16 2012, 09:34AM
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36

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#2 vetinari
July 16 2012, 09:35AM
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Eb's is guaranteed to score more goals in 2012-13 than: 1.) me; 2.) you; and, 3.) everyone else on these boards combined.

Seriously, I think Eberle is in an enviable position because he'll have Hall, RNH, and the Yak feeding him for the foreseeable future and unless he gets snake bitten (literally, as in, "Jay Fester snuck a cobra into my left skate"), he'll easily pot in 20-30 goals a season and most likely, be a 30-40 goal scorer.

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#3 Archaeologuy
July 16 2012, 09:44AM
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I have a one almost-word reason why Eberle will be scoring goals at a stupid rate for the remainder of his time with the Oilers*: RNH.

Nuge will be feeding him sick passes for the rest of forever and Eberle has the hands to capitalize. And Nuge is only going to get better.

*Until he retires!!

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#4 bleedingoil
July 16 2012, 09:49AM
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He should be able to pot around 35 to 40 goals, all things considered. A healthy season from his linemates is a big plus. New coach playing him against tougher opposition this year may hinder him a little, but with a beefed up defence (assuming Whitney is healthy and Schultz/Klefbom make the transition good) it may balance out. I wanna see LOTS of big stretch passes coming from our end to send Ebs in. He has great hands and can pick his shots, so give him some clean passes and have a good season with healthy linemates and I know we will be putting him in the same brackets as Tavares, Stamkos, Malkin etc from this year on.

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#7 geoilersgist
July 16 2012, 09:51AM
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I think he will put The Great One to shame and score 93 goals

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#8 BURROWSHASCRABS
July 16 2012, 09:52AM
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Very nice, all ready starting with the negative uh? Jesus christ, so what next Halls only going to score 10 goals, RNH only going to get 30 pts? You're watching the emergence of a 35-40 goal sniper. Not a lot of guys in the NHL have a shot like he does and he's only going to get stronger and faster. And now throw Yak in the mix.....wow.

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#10 Br91
July 16 2012, 09:54AM
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You're not looking at all the variables, and are being a bit unrealistic in the ones you've chosen.

I'll agree Eberle's shooting percentage was high last year, at an unmaintainable level, but I still think he averages about 13-14% for his career. Why?

1) Eberle is a sniper. The sheer accuracy and quality of his shots put him in the top 5% of NHL forwards IMO in terms of sniping ability. Perhaps 20-25 players in the league can have this distinction. I can't think of an Oiler with that nice of a shot in the last 15 years.

2) Eberle isn't a shoot-first player. He's not going to fire a ridiculous number of shots/game or shoot from poor angles (like Hall and Paajarvi). If you watch him play he'd much rather try to maintain possession or pass in hopes of creating a better Iopportunity than blindly throw the puck at the net. It's what makes him such a finesse player. It's like a Hemsky-like trait, except he's much more aware of when to shoot.

2) Eberle plays with RNH now. The quality of scoring opportunities he's seeing now, especially on the powerplay, is oodles higher than those he was seeing with Horcoff and Gagner. That shooting percentage is bound to stay >10% thanks to this.

I think Eberle scores on pace for 30+ at the very least, as long as he remains the #1LW and on the #1 PP unit.

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#11 Mike Krushelnyski
July 16 2012, 09:56AM
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More shots and a similar shooting percentage. Ebs will probably always maintain a high shooting percentage because he's a great one-shot scorer on the PP. The Oilers as a team will hopefully generate more shots because they'll be a better team in all 3 zones (oh god I hope so).

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#12 sizzler
July 16 2012, 09:57AM
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65 goals for ebs

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#14 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:04AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

To everyone in the 30-40 goal range, I applaud your enthusiasm, but how does it happen? More shots or a repeat in shooting percentage?

Have you consider throwing in unmeasurable factors. Like as to how Ebs thinks the game. I find that he is very selective as to when and how he shoots the puck. He tends to make the most of his opportunities and always seems to come through. This goes back all the way to Junior and the world championships. Just a thought but I find Ebs is more about using his head than just shooting for the sake of shooting. If he can't get the shot he wants he tends to hold on and look for the pass or get in a better position.

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#15 BurkeTheTurd
July 16 2012, 10:05AM
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@ JW

I am with you, shooting percentage will come down slowly, but hopefully shots will increase as he get more ice time and better players around him.

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#16 gcw_rocks
July 16 2012, 10:05AM
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I am in the 30-40 goal range estimate.

I see a modest drop in shooting percentage and and modest increase in shot rate to compensate.

I also suspect he will feed that shooting percentage off the powerplay, where as others have said, the Nuge boosts Eberle's shooting percentage with some ridiculous passes that Eberle rarely misses scoring on.

if Eberle was to see a significant decrease in his PP time or have to play with another centre for long stretches, then I could see a dip below 30 goals.

Can you segregate his shooting percentage at evens vs PP?

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#17 sizzler
July 16 2012, 10:06AM
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Never reading another one of your articles......its off-season and you are dropping ebs shooting %

After picking 1st for last 3 yrs....last thing I need to hear.

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#18 ubermiguel
July 16 2012, 10:07AM
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I think he can repeat the %. He's got unreal patience and he picks his shots very well.

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#19 Big Cap
July 16 2012, 10:07AM
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Ebs potted 34 goals and 76 points. What would his totals of been had Hall and RNH not missed 20 games?

RNH was rookie and still was dominant. Its gonna be very scary this year watching RNH with more confidence, size ans skill set up Ebs.

Ebs will also have Yak and Schultz to play with and take some of the top defense pairings of his shifts.

Its is very possible for a 40-45 goal season with a mid 90`s point total.

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#21 DieHard
July 16 2012, 10:11AM
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Eberle is a sniper with deceitful moves and a very accurate shot. If he doesn't have a shot to make he won't take it as he has the ability to dangle or pass. With team offense improving I can see him getting more shots per game on average with his shooting percentage in his current range. He's a wonderful player. Very smart.

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#22 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:13AM
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Personally I don't care what kind of points any player puts up in a season. The only number I care about right now is 8th or better.

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#23 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 16 2012, 10:13AM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

More shots and a similar shooting percentage. Ebs will probably always maintain a high shooting percentage because he's a great one-shot scorer on the PP. The Oilers as a team will hopefully generate more shots because they'll be a better team in all 3 zones (oh god I hope so).

I definitely see Willis' point, but this is a great one, too. With Eberle getting gravy 1PP minutes, his shooting percentage should remain ridiculous as long as the PP stays ridiculous. Probably not reasonable to expect him to repeat last year's number, but I don't think 15% is far-fetched.

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#26 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:18AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Goals = shots * shooting percentage.

Therefore - if Eberle is going to score more goals, one of those things must increase.

It can be a byproduct of thinking the game better - or whatever quality you want to highlight of his - but those qualities must result in either one or the other. I'm asking how people see them translating.

I wasn't talking about him scoring any more or less, just a explantion as to the high %. I honestly think he will stick around the 75 point mark. Likely have flucuation between goals and assits but still sitting at the same level.

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#28 Will
July 16 2012, 10:20AM
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So, how does Daniel Sedin get so many goals with a low shooting percentage? Is he just taking a ton of shots at the net that aren't going in? Or is he being sublimely set up by Hendrick?

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#29 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 16 2012, 10:20AM
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@ Willis:

Would you predict a similar drop-off in point production from Eberle's linemates?

Surely Eberle's potential drop in shooting percentage would have some measurable impact on his linemates' assist totals.

I'm not sure if you can predict an increase in the number of assists from RNH, for instance, if you can't predict an increase in goals from his linemates.

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#30 nuge2nail
July 16 2012, 10:20AM
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Oiler Domination to Follow

Eberle has FOUR factors that could help him maintain his current goal scoring pace and possibly exceed it.

1)He plays with the Nuge(Shooting percentage increased 5%- because the Nuge is simply the best)

2)More Minutes - he should see an incrase of 15-20% in icetime (more shots+more goals)

3)Oilers Powerplay - Eberle sits in the sniper slot - across from the Nuge(resulting in beautiful goals)

4) Justin Scultz - the puck will get up the ice quicker, more breakout passes and the Powerplay should be better

So I am hoping Eberle hits 35 goals this year due to these factors, is 40 hoping for too much? I would love to see Captain Clutch in the playoffs or play in meaningful games in March, and I think Semin would help our team get to the playoffs - and when he disappears, Captain Clutch would carry the team on his back. Heres hoping Oiler Management Adds to our 29th place team.

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#32 Rama Lama
July 16 2012, 10:23AM
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JW although you are accurate in your assessment.....that being shots taken times shooting %, one needs to also factor in the goalie you are shooting at, and his save %.

I suspect that JE shots taken will also be attached to his ice time, he did not get first line ice time last year, so he could actually lead the NHL in shots taken.

I think the more telling stat would be the quality of the shots taken.....hard to measure this one!

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#33 Erny Beckett
July 16 2012, 10:25AM
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Slightly off topic, but I am seeing (in these comments and in other threads) mention of Klefbom. My understanding is that he stays in SEL for another year. Has that changed?

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#34 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:27AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Oh, I think his shooting percentage will always be high - the number used in my projection was the number that my comparables group above managed in Year 3. 13.6% is still a top-5% shooting percentage in the NHL.

Thats true and honeslty how many players in the NHL maintain an annual 75+ point a season avg? People here need to be realistic, a lot seem to think in a year or two our whole top line is going to have 100 point players on it and be good for a decade. Its just not realistic. I'm not saying it isn't possible for maybe a season but very unlikely. I also never see Hall hitting 80 points, hes a wrecking ball not a sniper and thats okay he won't need to put up those kind of points.

I feel the same expectations are being put on Gagner. I'm fine with the 45-50 points a season as a second line center. I just think he needs to bring a little more defensively and physically to make this team more competitive. Also I met Gagner and they have him listed at 5'11", no way I'm 5'6" and we were almost the same height.

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#35 Macy
July 16 2012, 10:32AM
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Oilers agree to a one year deal with Peckham apparently.

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#36 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:33AM
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Macy wrote:

Oilers agree to a one year deal with Peckham apparently.

More like Peckham accepts qualifying offer.

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#37 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:34AM
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Dman09 wrote:

More like Peckham accepts qualifying offer.

If he didn't he would have been awarded less in arbitration..... is that even possible?????

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#38 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 16 2012, 10:34AM
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When it's all said and done I imagine he'll be a 25 - 30 goal 60 - 70 point guy for his career. (baring league wide shifts in scoring).

We've got a Patrick Sharp on our hands, which is fantastic.

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#39 Dan the Man
July 16 2012, 10:35AM
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I'm pretty sure that Wanye will "lose" your paycheque for this article.

HOW DARE YOU PERSONALLY ATTACK EBERLE IN THE MANNER? YOU OBVIOUSLY HATE HIM AND WANT TO SEE HIM FAIL AND WRITING THIS ALL BUT ENSURES THAT WILL HAPPEN!.

DAMN YOU WILLIS!DAMN YOU TO HELL!

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#40 Macy
July 16 2012, 10:43AM
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@Dman I dunno, do they have that long to accept? Apparently it's for $1.075 million. Seems reasonable I suppose.

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#41 Team Hall
July 16 2012, 10:46AM
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The stats do tell part of the story, no question. Statistically speaking, you can't maintain a high shooting percentage like that. But as some have pointed out, shooting percentage is not the only variable in this experiment. What about, as some have mentioned, the quality of the shots? Some players (Hall) just throw everything on net and hope it goes in. So they have a lower shooting percentage, and everyone says, they should be able to maintain that. Fact is, it could go lower. Then you have smarter players like Ebs who only shoot if they think they have a high chance of scoring, therefore, shots remain low, and shooting percentage stays high. And the geeks look at the shooting percentage and say, hmmm, he can't maintain that. Fact is, he could go higher. That's why they play the games guys.. lets wait and see.

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#42 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:46AM
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Macy wrote:

@Dman I dunno, do they have that long to accept? Apparently it's for $1.075 million. Seems reasonable I suppose.

As long as its one year but I still think we have to many players unless they use him in a trade

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#43 Macy
July 16 2012, 10:47AM
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nevermind...just read Willis's article that said he signed the qualifying offer. Anyway, how bout that Eberle golf classic? $240,000 raised, pretty nice.

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#45 CGG
July 16 2012, 10:48AM
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There isn't anyting negative about postina realistic prediction based on some logic. I am not saying everything can be laid out in mathmatical terms, in fact I am a huge believer in the intangibles of the game. All I am saying is there is nothing wrong with posting an article with a fair assesment. I would love to see Jordan win MVP this year, but why have such high expectations? Jon's just posting a logical prediction, so instead of hating, put up your own prediction if you have a problem with whats written here and we can see what happens at years end. Could be fun. I think we see a slight increase in shot totals for Eberle because of a improved blueline (hoping that still happens), improved RNH and overall improved team, spreading the oppositions defense thinner. I say 29 goals and say 211 shots on net for Eberle. I am no mathmatician like Willis, but thats what I think. Great read Willis... love the stats and prediction stuff...

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#46 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:50AM
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@Team Hall

Like I said, only number we need be concerned about is 8th or better.

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#47 justDOit
July 16 2012, 10:53AM
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First of all - to all you amateur video producers out there - less is more. Less blurry/twisty effects, less club music behind hockey highlights. It's hockey, not a rave. Next time, save the ecstasy tabs for AFTER the project.

As for Ebs, while I think he might score fewer goals this coming season, I think his shooting percentage will remain stupidly high. The reasons for this are that there's even more talent on the club now, and still just one puck to play with. That, and there's bound to be a shortened season.

Edit: typo

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#48 Dman09
July 16 2012, 10:53AM
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@Jonathan Willis

Hey JW, is anyone at ON doing an article up about the CBA situation?

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#49 Ben
July 16 2012, 10:55AM
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A healthy Hall and a healthy RNH can completely fry this theory. If Hall is healthy and producing like people hope he can, defense's will have to choose which line to focus on, if they are separated that is. Even if they are together and Hall is flying it can create room for Eberle. A healthy RNH figures into it because of his set up man capabilities. If both Hall and RNH stay healthy last season, even if Eberle didn't miss those 6 games he's looking a 40 goal season. With those factors falling into place, I don't see him tailing off very much.

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#50 gcw_rocks
July 16 2012, 10:57AM
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Anyone know if its possible to segregate Eberle's shooting percentage between EV and PP? Don't see a split on NHL.com.

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