OVER (PAY) TO YOU, DEVAN
Robin Brownlee
July 05 2012 07:44PM
With the two-year deal the Edmonton Oilers just gave him, Devan Dubnyk could walk away from hockey in the summer of 2014 and never play another NHL game and he'd have more money in his jeans than you or I will make in a lifetime.
Having bumped Dubnyk's salary from $800,000 a season to $3.5 million a year through 2013-14, that's not the plan, of course. Money talks, and the Oilers have given a clear indication they don’t expect the six-foot-five puck stopper to be going anywhere anytime soon. That will play out in the next 24 months.
Simply put, the contract tendered Dubnyk is extremely generous, and then some. Plain and simple, it's an overpay to a restricted free agent who has yet to establish himself as a bonafide No. 1 goaltender. I'm not saying Dubnyk can’t or won't do so, because the former Kamloops Blazers is clearly a better option than the fading Nikolai Khabibulin. I'm simply saying he hasn’t done it yet.
Whether the contract is a touch rich or not, the price point GM Steve Tambellini and the front office pegged Dubnyk at sends a message to him and the team in front of him – the Oilers are confident he can and will be the go-to guy in the blue paint moving forward.
That vote of confidence hasn't been lost on the 26-year-old Dubnyk, who went 20-23-3 with a 2.67 goals-against average and a .914 saves percentage in 47 games (42 starts) last season. In 101 NHL games with the Oilers, Dubnyk is 36-43-13 with a 2.85 GAA and .910 saves percentage.
READY TO GO
"It's a huge boost of confidence," said Dubnyk, who has gone from making really good money and being single to making really great money and being married in the last couple of weeks. "It's very important to get that faith and that backing from the team. They certainly showed that. It's just exciting going forward."
My first inclination is that faith in Dubnyk is well-founded and that the message sent is justified. That guarantees nothing, of course, but I don't see the commitment by the Oilers as a shot in the dark, even if it's $1 million or so more a season than I'd have put on the table. It's not my money.
Given the statement the contract makes, Dubnyk will be the clear-cut No. 1 guy ahead of Khabibulin and that will likely translate to 55-60 games this coming season playing behind a team that should be markedly better than he's stood in for since breaking into the line-up in 2009-10.
Dubnyk has the ball, and the money, now. I'd be willing to bet he runs with it rather than walking anywhere two years from now. My guess is Dubnyk will turn into that bonafide No. 1 stopper. How will he stack up in the big NHL picture? I don't know. That, as is always the case, is up to him.
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There is a shake-up coming.
The dubbie signing is an overpayment (earned it), which is fine. Gagner going to arbitration again, ( not fine, give him a raise for what he has earned).
Byers signing is always good, never have to many of these type of toughness players and will challenge for a roster spot.
Smitty, Petry, Shultz, Sutton last year, and the rest of the qualifying offers, they are adding and signing pieces without subtracting, it is coming.
Prospects starting to bubble again and no one leaving? This is not the Oiler's? Are they going to keep drafting or signing free agents, or are they going to try and add pieces and start rushing it?
I am hoping whoever the brain trust is nowadays can ride it out. Do not be the team that takes a run at it for one year. Keep players and develop them so the oilers can have a strong team for years to come. So if there is a call up he will be able to fill in and not look out of place.
Oiler Domination to Follow
Dubnyk is going to be a star - Nick Shultz made him a better goalie, if J Schultz has an impact, Dubnyk can be an all star.
You read it here folks, this kids the real deal.
In short, The Oilers gambled on DD today,and I believe his demonstrated history and character make him a favorite to cover the bet.
Double post.
/thread
Dubnyk was a restricted free agent. Restricted. There was no reason to overpay by that much. You could have let him go to arbitration, made weak arguments at the hearing, and still ended up paying less than that!
If Tambo is going to overpay players because of draft pedigree and potential, then this team is going to have serious cap problems before they even make the playoffs. Gagner is also at restricted free agency, with Eberle, Hall and Paajarvi coming off ELC's after this year, RNH and J.Schultz after that, and probably Yakupov after that. At least after Tambo trades away everyone to get under the cap, we'll still have Horcoff...
SP% starting 11-12 season and working back:
Dubnyk 3.5M- 0.914, 0.916, 0.889
Rask 3.5M- 0.929, 0.918, 0.931
Lehtonen 3.5M- 0.922, 0.914, 0.911
Pavelec 3.9M- 0.906, 0.914, 0.906
Halak 3.75M- 0.926, 0.910, 0.924
The only close one really, is Pavelec. A bit of an overpay unless his SP% comes up a few tenths this year.
RB, I really like the point about this sending a message to both Dubs and the team in front of him: "you're our guy, and we can win with you". I hadn't even thought of using contracts as a form of team motivator - if it works I might have to tone down my daily Tambo criticisms.
If psychological payroll techniques can get this team into the playoffs, I'll take it any day of the week. Individual salary means nothing to me (in the short term); I just want a team with a winning record, overpays and all.
A bit of an overpay... yeesh.. and if he stinks out the joint you can't trade him now either for two years. To me he was only worth a couple million and I would have done one year. He has not done enough to prove to me he is number one material for 60-65 games a year... Waste of cash in my mind. Time will tell. How much did Petry get. I didn't see that anywhere?
Oiler Domination to Follow
Petry 3.5 Million two years - GREAT SIGNING
With the luck the Oilers have had since game 82 was in the books, I have a feeling this decision will work out for the Oil. A little generous, but at least it displays a definite role for Duby.
now that the NHL has gone back to the trap.It would be fun to have a team like the 80's Oilers that would out score the other team at will.Grant Fuhr would just have to make one or two "Big" saves.grants save % was always near the bottom but the wins were near the top.I hope Devan can make timely saves and stop letting in the back breakers.And then the team can simply just out score the other team.
I am quite sure that if he/they put the numbers up that no one will really care whether he's over or under paid. Lets talk Jason Bonsignore in camp in Banff years back....Steve Kelly....as a pick.......Pete Ketella.........sports history littered with bad decisions, we all know that. Time and only time will tell us about this contract.
i'm ok with this contract.
we bitch and moan (smytty) when management dilly dallies over contract money and complain when we don't pay up and then players (glencross) leave.
as stated on puck daddy, he is 22nd for goalies in cap hit. he is the starting goalie now and this is what starting goalies shold be in the range of.
paying someone a reasonable amount money relative to potential is not absurd. only 2 years.
Pouzar99 -
Your theory was proven wrong when Roberto Luongo went from the Panthers to the Canucks.
.920 .915 .918 .931 .914 .921 .917 .920 .913 .928
Which set of 5 years are from Florida? Which are from Vancouver? Who knows, because the quality of shots in front of him made no difference. The goalie is the most important part of defence, he either makes the saves or doesn't.
Talk about rewarding failure.
Money aside, Dubnyk obviously was getting re-upped this summer. The bigger worry is the obvious statement this contract makes in terms of how they view the goaltending going forward.
There is what, all of probably one guy in the Oilers nation that is absolutely convinced Dubnyk can be a legit starter capable of taking this team to the next level?
Too bad he happens to be the GM of the team.
Make that 2 people who believe that Dubnyk can can/will be the number 1 starter this season. An improved defence along with a lethal offence should see the puck more often in the opponents net than ours. He has shown steady progress and has brought his game to a level that is in my opinion is comparable to his peers. I think the contract definitely sends a message. Its say your our guy. It also says we value you.
We can argue dollars and cents but given the NHL's lack of goaltending locking up DD to a 2 year contract is wise and recognizes that moving forward that there will be a lack of goalies on the market in the future as teams look to lock up thier tenders to longer term contracts.
If I look around the league DD's peers are slowly finding themselves in prime roles. Tukka Rask,James Reimer and so on. The Martin Brodeurs of the league are waning. Nk will be done at the end of the season. Turco done. Roloson done. The next generation awaits and DD is part of that changing of the gaurd.
This must be a joke. So the guy plays a good half a season at the league average(stats wise) and then gets paid like a 12 year vet with a stanley cup ring. Hmmmm ya because that makes a whole lot of sense. I'm having a really hard time supporting the Oilers when I hear sh*t like this. When your job is to get as much bang for your buck, someone send Tambo a memo, and you make a deal like this it shows how completely out of touch with things he really is.
Hey Tambo, do you got to McDonalds and pay $200 for a meal when you walk in and hope they bring you a 5 star meal????? Because thats what this signing is looking like right.
mayorpoop said..."paying someone a reasonable amount money relative to potential is not absurd. only 2 years..."
i soooo beg to differ with your take on how this 4 and half times raise in salary is relative to "potential"... starter schmarter...
where will this '11-'12 'backup' take this team?...possibly on his back and garner a playoff spot? maybe a round one series win?
all of a sudden Katz ponies up a 'reasonable' 3point5 per and he's a starter? who's he gonna backup when ~the wall~ is b-bye after this year and the 'tall kid' didn't live up to his "potential"?
i jus don't think backups make 3point5 per...even if our GM's so desparate to call him a starter...
Good on ya Dubbie . The GM has shown his faith and know you have the ball eh puck . Just stop it . Your going to have a better "D" than last year so you need more wins than losses . This should be your year .
I have to respectfully disagree with this article. Doobie is a starting goalie in the NHL this year, no? So what is the average wage for a starting goalie with a >910 save percentage? Oh, he's RFA, right. Because RFA's never make big bucks in this league. Ive never seen that before... Carey Price? Schneider? Niemi, Rask, What about little Sam Gagner, should they get him for 1.5M this year? I doubt it, RFA.
@pelhem grenville
what would you have offered Josh Harding and for how long? same with Tukka Rask, and Halak (whom had a good playoffs).
he's not a backup. just because he wasn't techinically #1 last year doesn't mean he wasn't #1.
he is the starter this year and this is what starters, in this market, get paid.
I think something smells funny........they must be getting rid of Khabibulin, maybe a trade to some desperate hockey team that needs to hit the salary floor.
10% of cap on your goalie tandem is right in line. That is where the Oilers are right now and it goes down next year when the Bulin Wall is gone. This money will not affect the F and D signing ... This is G money. This is also building team confidence. I like this deal at 2 years.
Rask and Halak are better, more proven goaltenders and they make the same money. Take a look at goalies with similar cap hits and tell me which ones Dubnyk is better than. There is a whole list of guys I would rather have.
Josh Harding IS getting a "reasonable" amount of money ...onepointnine cap hit for three years
Rask is being forced into starterdom with Timmy flaking off..crikey mayor Halak bloody near won a Stanley Cup BY HIMSELF soonago!!!
if I go with your take I say ...
the wannabe starters market sucks!!!
I made this point elsewhere already, but I don't really think it matters all that much if he's overpaid or not.
If he proves himself to be a bonafide #1 goalie at the end of the deal, then not only will he be worth the money, but he'll get an extension (or sign elsewhere as a UFA) at market value no matter what.
If he still hasn't established himself as a starter over the next two years, then I don't see the Oilers bringing him back whether they were paying him $1M or $6M anually.
So the way I see it, this deal only really impacts the next 2 years. Two years where we'll be well under the cap in the first one, and the $3.75M backup will be off the books in the 2nd.
For a goalie who let in a bad goal almost every game he played in last year this is way too much money. Doesn't leave me feeling confident that Tambo et al will be able to get maximum value for their contracts, and while this isn't a huge issue now, it will be as our young studs move past their entry-level contracts. It's all good though, my bet is that Tambo will be long gone by that time anyways, and our new GM Wayne Gretzky will balance the ledgers!
Is it at all possible that Oiler management and the Dubnyk camp have a handshake agreement, that in the case that Dubnyk does turn out to be a legit #1 tender, he will already have been given an "advance" on any deserved salary increase? This would then ease the ability to sign our young guns that will then be up for huge raises. For the record, I do believe in Dubby, and I see him as the same mould as a Rinne, or Lindback. He has gotten better each year with his movements, and fundamentals.
Beg to differ, if Dubby does play really well over the next two seasons he will be demanding that much more of an increase over his current contract. So instead of paying him 2.5 mil now and 4.5-5 later its now, 3.5 now and 5.5+ later. This could actually make things harder when trying to keep all the young stars in a couple years.
How is he not a legit starter, His record was 20-20-3, putting him over 50%, plus he played 47 games, which means he only got pulled in four of them. If we need him to play 60 games, that's only 13 more games he needs to play and 17 more he needs to play and finish. I think the fact he only has three overtime wins indicative that the team in front of him couldn't close out games in overtime. Thus I don't think it's unrealistic that in 17 games, Dubnyk could pull out nine more wins.
Whether or not the contract is an overpay is another matter worth debate I guess, but make no mistake, any goalie that's above .500 playing on one of the worst teams in the league would suggest he is the guy for our team.
@dman09
i've never been a feverish supporter of Dithers, by any means.
i'm going to say it may be a slight overpayment but again we don't know how the negotiations (or lack thereof) went.
i do maintain that this is not so out reach in 70 million cap ceiling world for a starting goalie. regardless of last year someone has got faith in this kid and so do i.
Hows your math man because that is exactly 50%. A starter should be significatly over 50% or else the team will have a losing record. Just to get into the playoffs a team usually needs 56% wins or better just to claim the 8th seed. If you starter is only getting 50% and your backup is worse, your not making the playoffs.
Some good points. However, you are dreaming if you think there will be "credit" given for the next contract - assuming Dubnyk is in line for a bump.
Let's assume DD is the most loyal, stand up guy in the world. In two years he says "hey, you know what, even though I can take the highest offer out there, I a going to cut you, GM MacT and assistant GM Toby Pederson and deputy assistant Marty Reasoner , a deal and shave a million a year off my contract".
His lawyers, agents, parents and the NHLPA - not necessarily in that order - would have a schmidt fit.
No. This was the Oilers last chance to hold the cards and they showed their hand. This was not "showing commitment". It was just DUMB.
Don't get me wrong, I like DD, but to pay him this kind of money is ridiculous. I'm afraid we'll look at this contract over the next two years with the same disdain as Horc's contract.
Petry should get Dubnyk's agent...I like Dubs but this is a bit rich...wonder what they'd pay if he could handle the puck better....hey Robin, in your travails have you heard anything about the "Nuclear Option" for the Coyotes? Puck Daddy had this article today: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/nhl-nuclear-option-phoenix-coyotes-dispersal-draft-rather-164252710--nhl.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Seems the $200 million entrance fee is more attractive than the $60 million transfer fees!
Also "Has-been-boozin'" (minus the hilarious length of contract).
So a goalie who has a simIlar save percentage as flurry, which if memory serves me right is the number one starter for Pittsburg, makes around the same as some of the starters out there and significantly less than some of the other ( I.E. Carey price anybody) and yet his contract is too much?? Give your heads a shake guys!! Is it a little more than you or I would have given him? Perhaps, but then again I wouldn't of given Smyth the ammount he was given due to the fact that he looked dead in the second half of the season. And talk into account that once Dubnyk was allowed to play with out having to worry about what would happen if he had a bad game ( even the best goalies have them occasionally) he proved that he could do what you ask a number one goalie, that being he made the saves he had to in order to give the team a chance to win. Just because the guy couldn't get the goal to pull out the win shouldn't reflect on DD. does dubbie. We'd more victories? Yes, but now that Edmonton has more offensive threats maybe the team will be able to score the needed next goal or win some of those games that are tied going into the third.
I'm sure someone mentioned this already but khabi is due for a monster season. It's a contract year and in the past those have been his best. We might end up seeing a bit of a goalie controversy in 12-13.
Wanye,
Can you guys build a poll database where people can ascribe their names to a position on controversial matters:
eg) Trade Gagner or Don't Trade Gagner
eg) Dubnyk 3.5/yr Good Deal or Bad Deal
eg) Hall vs. Seguin
eg) Yakupov vs. Murray
I would love to be able to force people to stand by their rants and own up to them later (even if later means 2 years later). Maybe we could use it to quiet down some of the donkeys that are always loud and always wrong.
@Word
Good idea but you forgot
eg)Tastes great vs Less filling
eg)Therapeutic massage vs Happy ending
eg)Death by overeating vs Death by 1000 cuts
@Word who you callin' always loud & always wrong :)
So, what's the cap hit if they buy Dubnyk out?