THOUGHTS ON DUBNYK, PETRY AND GAGNER

Jason Gregor
July 06 2012 11:40AM

Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk received two-year contracts yesterday moments before the NHL announced that Sam Gagner was one of 16 players who filed for arbitration. Much of the early reaction from fans and the media was that Petry was a great signing, while Dubnyk got overpaid. I agree Petry's deal was good, but I'm not sold that Dubnyk was that bad of a contract.

Everyone likes to trot out comparables and that makes sense, but we can only use them as talking points, because no two situations are the same.

In the last month Dubnyk along with Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider and Ondrej Pavelec have all received new deals.

Pavelec:     5 years at $3.9 million/season.
Schneider: 3 years at $4 million/season.
Dubnyk:      2 years at $3.5 million/season.
Rask:          1year at $3.5 million.

Instantly many suggested that Dubnyk wasn't in the same category as Schneider and Rask due to their records, SV% and GAA. If you only look at their records you are correct in assuming they are better, but when you look a bit deeper I'm not sold that the Oilers grossly overpaid Dubnyk.

Let's compare these four goalies over the past two seasons.

Goalie        GP           GA          SA          SV%       GAA         EV SV%
Pavelec     126         336        3,741      .910        2.83          .922
Dubnyk       82          211        2,483      .915        2.68           .924
Schneider  58          111        1,659       .933        2.09          .932
Rask           52          105       1,487       .929        2.20          .926

In the past two years Rask averaged 28.5 shots per game, Schneider 28.6, Pavelec 29.6 and Dubnyk 30.2. Of course shots on goal don't accurately reflect quality scoring chances, but one could say without much argument that the Jets/Thrashers and Oilers likely gave up more quality chances than the Bruins and Canucks.

What I found interesting is that Dubnyk has essentially the same EV SV% as Rask. The difference in their SV% came mostly on the PK.

Last year the Oilers spent 505:12 on the PK, 5th most in the league. Boston spent 422:46 on the PK.

When you look at Rask and Dubnyk's EV numbers I can see why Dubnyk received a similar contract.

Schneider had great numbers in Vancouver. Statistically he is the best of the four, and he has the biggest cap hit. However, last year he only started three or more consecutive games twice. No one knows how he will react when he has to start 50 or 55 games.

I think there was just as much of a risk in giving Schneider three years at $4 million as there was giving Dubnyk two years at $3.5 million. Both teams handed out the money hoping they will both be able to start 55-60 games.

If you take a quick look across the league you will see that if Dubnyk can maintain, or improve, his .915 SV% and start at least 50 games his contract won't be that out of line.

Here are last year's SV% leaders and their 2013 cap hit.

Player  GS SA  GA  GAA  Sv  Sv%  2013 cap hit
Mike Smith 67 2066 144 2.21 1922 0.930  $2 million
Henrik Lundqvist 62 1753 123 1.97 1630 0.930 $6.87
Jonathan Quick 69 1863 133 1.95 1730 0.929 $1.70
Jaroslav Halak 46 1211 90 1.97 1121 0.926 $3.75
Pekka Rinne 72 2153 166 2.39 1987 0.923 $7.00
Kari Lehtonen 59 1739 136 2.33 1603 0.922 $3.55
Miikka Kiprusoff 68 2040 162 2.35 1878 0.921 $5.83
Jimmy Howard 57 1496 119 2.13 1377 0.920 $2.25
Tim Thomas 55 1659 132 2.36 1527 0.920 $5.00
Roberto Luongo 54 1577 127 2.41 1450 0.919 $5.33
Niklas Backstrom 45 1299 105 2.43 1194 0.919 $6.00
Jose Theodore 51 1502 125 2.46 1377 0.917 $1.50
Tomas Vokoun 46 1299 108 2.51 1191 0.917 $2.00
Carey Price 65 1914 160 2.43 1754 0.916 $6.50
Ryan Miller 60 1788 150 2.55 1638 0.916 $6.25
Antti Niemi 68 1865 159 2.42 1706 0.915 $3.80
Cam Ward 68 2143 182 2.74 1961 0.915 $6.30
Craig Anderson 60 1917 165 2.84 1752 0.914 $3.18
Devan Dubnyk 42 1380 118 2.67 1262 0.914 $3.50
Evgeni Nabokov 41 1172 101 2.55 1071 0.914 $2.75
Marc-Andre Fleury 64 1768 153 2.36 1615 0.913 $5.00
Semyon Varlamov 52 1564 136 2.59 1428 0.913 $2.83
Jonas Hiller 73 2021 182 2.57 1839 0.910 $4.50
Nikolai Khabibulin 40 1114 100 2.65 1014 0.910 $3.75
Ilya Bryzgalov 57 1554 141 2.48 1413 0.909 $5.67
Martin Brodeur 59 1472 136 2.41 1336 0.908 $4.50
Ondrej Pavelec 67 2036 191 2.91 1845 0.906 $3.90
Corey Crawford 55 1507 146 2.72 1361 0.903 $2.67
Mathieu Garon 44 1191 118 2.85 1073 0.901 $1.30
Steve Mason 45 1355 143 3.39 1212 0.894 $2.90

PETRY GREAT DEAL

Petry's contract looks like a "great value" deal for the Oilers. Petry only has one full NHL season on his resume, but he really improved in the 2nd half of last season.

In the 43 games in 2012, Petry averaged 23:13 minutes. tallied 20 points and was a -5.

He was much more physical in the latter part of the season, and he found ways to use his excellent skating abilities to his advantage. Petry and Smid become a solid pairing, but Petry needs to shoot the puck more. He only had 111 shots and two goals. He has a decent shot and he needs to use it more effectively, but at $1.75 million he is a bargain.

GAGNER TO ARBITRATION 

Gagner is one of 15 players who could go to arbitration. David Perron filed, but he already signed a four-year extension with the Blues moments after filing.

The list doesn't have any star players, but Gagner, Versteeg, Quincey and Oshie will likely garner the most money.

  • Nick Bonino, Anaheim Ducks
  • Jamie McGinn, Colorado Avalanche
  • Richard Bachman, Dallas Stars
  • Mark Fistric, Dallas Stars
  • Kyle Quincey, Detroit Red Wings
  • Sam Gagner, Edmonton Oilers
  • Kris Versteeg, Florida Panthers
  • Raphael Diax, Montreal Canadiens
  • Sergei Kostitsyn, Nashville Predators
  • Mark Fayne, New Jersey Devils
  • Anton Stralman, New York Rangers
  • Kaspars Daugavins, Ottawa Senators
  • T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues
  • T.J. Galiardi, San Jose Sharks
  • Dale Weise, Vancouver Canucks

Realistically only three or four players will go to arbitration, with the rest will likely coming to an agreement prior to their arbitration date. I suspect Gagner will recieve between $3.1-$3.5 million, but I'm more curious to see how long of a deal he receives.

Gagner is two years away from being unrestricted. He turns 23 in August and it is still a mystery as to what type of player he can be. Gagner has shown flashes that he could be a top-end #2 centre. He has excellent offensive instincts, he competes hard and he really wants to win and improve as a player.

Gagner has averaged 44 points over his five seasons, 49 if you prorate his seasons, and whether you want to admit it or not he is a bonafide 2nd line centre. Very few centres average 45 points a year in today's game, and considering he's only 22 you wonder if he'll become a 50-55 point player or better over the next five years.

The real question isn't how much Gagner will get from an arbitrator or the Oilers, but is he the longterm answer as a 2nd line centre in Edmonton. Of the Oilers skilled forwards only Taylor Hall is over six feet, and history shows you can't win without some size in your top-six.

Gagner still wants to improve his footspeed, but I suspect he'll need to become a better two-way centre if he wants to stay in Edmonton long term.

Signing Gagner to a three-year pact might be the best strategy for the Oilers. They lock him up three years, which is ample time to find out exactly what type of player he'll be, and it also makes him more attractive on the trade market, if they choose to take that route.

I could see a three-year deal worth $9.6 million.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Dave
July 06 2012, 11:44AM
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First at not being bright enough to think of anything other than a clenched hand... Edited by Gregor...

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#2 hunkybill
July 06 2012, 11:44AM
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Embarrassing attempt...edited by Gregor

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#3 andrewmk20
July 06 2012, 11:51AM
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Nugent Hopkins is about 6'1 175. He looks like he'll be around the same body type as a Tyler Seguin, tall and rangy. But I think everyone agrees that they need more diversity within their lineup.

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#4 Dave
July 06 2012, 11:52AM
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Good read. I agree with petry being a good signing. Gagner should get a longer contract, at least three years IMO. I think that's what's caused him to file. I think he wants to be here for a long time and the oilers aren't sure yet if he is the right fit. Loving the dubnyk signing as well. I think in two years he's goin to get a longer deal at least five years long. Hopefully that's with the oilers cause I can see him growing and developing into a top tier goalie

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#5 admiraimark
July 06 2012, 11:56AM
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I guess a different way of looking at Dubnyk is asking the question.. Could you of signed him for less? Even on a longer term deal? Of this i have very little doubt. He may show to be worth this contract.. I certainly hope so. But the more value contracts a GM can get the better chances this team will be able to compete by procuring free agents and keeping its star players. I think that this management team seems to have a difficult time grasping that concept and this is yet another example of that.

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#6 dawgbone
July 06 2012, 12:02PM
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"Of course shots on goal don't accurately reflect quality scoring chances,"

Well, actually they do, at least in terms of shots at goal (Fenwick).

Ultimately, the deal for Dubnyk is fair when you look at his performance and how he slots in vs other goalies in the league.

What I didn't like was that the Oilers had a lot of leverage here and didn't use it.

1. Dubnyk was an RFA.

2. While he's been good for the Oilers he has very little name recognition around the league.

3. Related to #2, there aren't many teams looking for goaltenders, and the ones that are aren't going to give $3.5 mil to a guy like Dubnyk.

With Schneider, if you believe the chatter, there was a real risk of a potential offer sheet so it was in the Canucks best interest to get him signed on their terms. Not so much here with Dubnyk.

I think the Oilers could have gotten a much better deal here.

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#7 YoungOil
July 06 2012, 12:05PM
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Q: Any chance that the Oilers can get Doan?

Edit: He could be our third line RW. IF he is here, the top 9 up may look like this: Hall-RNH-Eberle Hemsky-Gagner-Yaks Smyth-Horcoff-Doan

Three scoring lines?

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#8 RossCreekNation
July 06 2012, 12:10PM
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If Dubnyk went to arb, the contracts signed by Rask/Schnieder/Pavelec could not be used as comparables (if I'm not mistaken). He didn't have the kind of leverage that makes that contract reasonable. I like Dubnyk, and he very well could prove worthy, but they signed him to a contract that they didn't have to. $2.25Mx2 would have been sufficient, imo.

Sam Gagner will likely get more than Derek Brassard's $3.2M per (signed a few yrs ago), and could even approach Brandon Dubinsky's $4.2M (signed last yr). Maybe Ales Hemsky's last deal ($4.1Mx6) is an option, although I doubt Oil go 6 yrs. Guessing around $3.75Mx4 for Sam.

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#9 Action Jackson
July 06 2012, 12:13PM
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Line combinations are no fun with Gagner. Nuge`s line always comes out looking awesome and the Gagner/Horcoff lines just look ok. Should move Hall to center, trade Gagner in a package for Yandle and sign Doan.

...while I am dreaming, lets trade Peckham for Stamkos.

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#10 Quicksilver ballet
July 06 2012, 12:15PM
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6'ers are fine if they can play. We've seen a few of them come and go in this town. I do believe they're all in the Hall of Fame as well. Gretzky 6'0", Kurri 6'0", Anderson 5'11", Messier 6'1", Coffey 6"0".

Playing surface is the identical size to when these guys played 50 yrs ago.

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#11 Action Jackson
July 06 2012, 12:18PM
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Love the Dubnyk signing! No point in pinching pennies with him. Give him confidence by telling him you believe in him as a #1 and pay him like a #1. Goalies are weird, they need that kind of support.

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#12 book¡e
July 06 2012, 12:22PM
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Action Jackson wrote:

Love the Dubnyk signing! No point in pinching pennies with him. Give him confidence by telling him you believe in him as a #1 and pay him like a #1. Goalies are weird, they need that kind of support.

Worked for Luongo, prior to his big contract, there were all kinds of questions about his reliability in the long run, particularly in the Playoffs.

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#13 Jon
July 06 2012, 12:23PM
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I agree that if Dubnyk went to arbitration, he would have got less.

But I wonder if his agent made it clear that a 1 yr arbitration deal would leave Dubs a UFA by the end of it.

You hear a lot about how arbitration can burn bridges between a player and management - I wonder if his agent played this card...give us our money, or you're left with no goalie for 2013-14 (Khabby's contract being up too).

And if you look at the plethora of UFA goalies available this year with all the solid guys getting locked up, I don't blame the Oilers for not wanting to take that gamble

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#14 lolhockey
July 06 2012, 12:23PM
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I've asked this before but I'll ask again!

Gagner for Dubinsky. Is that a fair trade? I imagine the Oilers would take that deal but would the Rangers?

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#15 TheDiplomat
July 06 2012, 12:25PM
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@Action Jackson

I was going to rant a bit about the Dubnyk signing as well but you and Gregor bring up valid points.

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#16 lolhockey
July 06 2012, 12:25PM
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hmmm I guess my first post didn't go through...

Gagner for Dubinsky. Fair trade? I imagine the Oilers would take this deal but would the Rangers?

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#17 lolhockey
July 06 2012, 12:26PM
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Sigh... my first post did go through...

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#18 Action Jackson
July 06 2012, 12:30PM
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Contracts of Dubnyk and Loungo are pretty different. Also, goalies are weird, but Loungo is just a big baby.

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#19 Brownlee loves the word meow
July 06 2012, 12:38PM
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3.5 Million for your number 1 goalie is a steal. He has comparable numbers to guys on the best teams in the league. He is only getting better as they ease him into this role. 2 years is a very safe number as well. Problem is he is likely to get better along with the team making his value greater and next contract larger. Longer term might have been wiser to save money, but I guess we will see what hindsight has to say about that in 2 years.

Great post Gregor! Fair value.

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#20 Jason
July 06 2012, 12:49PM
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@lolhockey

My view is that you keep Gagner unless you can find another second line center that is close in talent and point production but perhaps a little bigger and/or grittier.

Guys like Dubinsky or Foligno.

I've heard rumblings that Dubinsky is available out of New York for the right price. I don't know how reliable these rumblings are, to be honest, but I could see it.

The problem with a Gagner for Dubinsky deal is that New York is already very full down the middle... so much so, in fact, that Dubinsky has been playing much of the last season on LW. I think to get Dubinsky out of New York, you'd likely need to give up Paajarvi as that better matches New York's needs. I still might do it though.

The other scenario that I could see is that Dubinsky is involved in any New York talks for Rick Nash. If Columbus likes Gagner (especially with them just acquiring a similar player to Dubinsky in Foligno), perhaps there is a way to swing Gagner for Dubinsky, and then the Rangers can include Gagner in a package for Nash. These three team deals aren't very common, but I could see a fit there for all three teams.

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#21 Jason
July 06 2012, 12:55PM
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Re: Dubnyk

While I think the going market rate is too high for young goalies who haven't proven much in the NHL yet, the market is what it is. After the deals signed by Rask and Schneider, Dubnyk's deal is right in line and at market value.

It does make me wonder though, if this deal was signed at the beginning of June, would the Oilers have been able to get Dubnyk for closer to 2.4/season? Maybe the Dubnyk camp was waiting for Rask and Schneider to sign for this very reason.

Re: Petry

Absolute bargain for the Oilers. To put this in comparison, Barker made 2.25 last year and Sutton will pull in an equal 1.75 this season. The difference is that Petry, in all likelihood, will be playing on our top pairing this season. Just my opinion, but this kid is going to be a stud and one of the foundations for our blueline for years to come.

I do wish the Oilers could have signed Petry to a longer deal (i.e. 4-5 years) with a similar deal to the Tom Gilbert contract. While it might be a tad high initially, by the end of those four years I have a feeling he would be a huge bargain. At least he is a RFA at the end of this deal though, and it the Oilers will have his full rights to hammer out a long-term deal.

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#22 Quicksilver ballet
July 06 2012, 12:58PM
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A second line center is someone who plays difficult minutes against the opposition. A second line center is someone who can shoulder 20+ minutes a night. A second line center is someone who should contribute offensively. A second line center should have a hearty chestnut moustache and fart bullets.

In Edmonton, no matter how you dress it up, that guy is still unfortunately Shawn Horcoff, not Sam Gagner.

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#23 jonrmcleod
July 06 2012, 01:02PM
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I don't know if you were going for a more professional look with the pictures, but I like it.

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#24 billylikestodrinksoda
July 06 2012, 01:02PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

A second line center is someone who plays difficult minutes against the opposition. A second line center is someone who can shoulder 20+ minutes a night. A second line center is someone who should contribute offensively. A second line center should have a hearty chestnut moustache and fart bullets.

In Edmonton, no matter how you dress it up, that guy is still unfortunately Shawn Horcoff, not Sam Gagner.

So what your saying is that despite Gagner's numbers his STYLE of game is not that of a second line centre and as such the Oilers need to upgrade the position and acquire a centre with the intagibles and ability to play more of a 2-way game whether that means said centre is 5'10"(eg. richards) or 6'4"(eg. Staal)? :)

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#25 David S
July 06 2012, 01:03PM
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Brownlee loves the word meow wrote:

3.5 Million for your number 1 goalie is a steal. He has comparable numbers to guys on the best teams in the league. He is only getting better as they ease him into this role. 2 years is a very safe number as well. Problem is he is likely to get better along with the team making his value greater and next contract larger. Longer term might have been wiser to save money, but I guess we will see what hindsight has to say about that in 2 years.

Great post Gregor! Fair value.

I'd have no problem with that number if Dubnyk had proven he's a #1 goalie. So far we think he might be one. He's making almost as much as Halak and I know which of the two I'd rather have in our net.*

*Hint: Rhymes with Balak.

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#26 dawgbone
July 06 2012, 01:08PM
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@David S

Keep in mind Halak signed his deal 2 years ago when the cap was about $7mil less. If you look at in terms of cap %, the Dubnyk deal is far less than the Halak one was at time of signing.

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#27 DSF
July 06 2012, 01:10PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

6'ers are fine if they can play. We've seen a few of them come and go in this town. I do believe they're all in the Hall of Fame as well. Gretzky 6'0", Kurri 6'0", Anderson 5'11", Messier 6'1", Coffey 6"0".

Playing surface is the identical size to when these guys played 50 yrs ago.

But the opposition is not the same size.

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#28 Dman09
July 06 2012, 01:11PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

If Dubnyk went to arb, the contracts signed by Rask/Schnieder/Pavelec could not be used as comparables (if I'm not mistaken). He didn't have the kind of leverage that makes that contract reasonable. I like Dubnyk, and he very well could prove worthy, but they signed him to a contract that they didn't have to. $2.25Mx2 would have been sufficient, imo.

Sam Gagner will likely get more than Derek Brassard's $3.2M per (signed a few yrs ago), and could even approach Brandon Dubinsky's $4.2M (signed last yr). Maybe Ales Hemsky's last deal ($4.1Mx6) is an option, although I doubt Oil go 6 yrs. Guessing around $3.75Mx4 for Sam.

I think Gagner at 3.5 mil is an awesome signing, I would even consider 5 years at that price. I think the problem is that he is looking to get similar money to Grabovski at 5.5 mil and that is just too much for him at this stage. If they can get a 5 year front loaded deal done under 4.0 mil cap hit I think that would be a good signing.

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#29 Dman09
July 06 2012, 01:13PM
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DSF wrote:

But the opposition is not the same size.

True back then there weren't many 6'5 and 6'6 players in the league if at all.

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#30 David S
July 06 2012, 01:15PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

A second line center is someone who plays difficult minutes against the opposition. A second line center is someone who can shoulder 20+ minutes a night. A second line center is someone who should contribute offensively. A second line center should have a hearty chestnut moustache and fart bullets.

In Edmonton, no matter how you dress it up, that guy is still unfortunately Shawn Horcoff, not Sam Gagner.

Sam's minutes were somewhat affected by the team's tanking "development" strategy last season. If we were serious about winning Hall/Gagner/Eberle would have been stapled together for at least 20 minutes a game.

Sam got 47 points last year, which puts him firmly in the 2C position. That's what you call "contributing offensively" BTW.

You don't send Gagner out on a checking role against the toughs. That's for third line C's like Horcoff, who you don't expect to contribute a whole lot offense-wise.

Seriously. You don't like a player, that's fine. We all have hates and faves. But at least try to stick to reality before slagging said player. Just because you think something doesn't necessarily mean it's true.

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#31 Rick
July 06 2012, 01:15PM
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When you know you will have to anti up for a player due to good performance or accomplishments I don't understand why you would also voluntarily pay for journeyman potential.

Is there another team in the league that would sign Dubnyk as their starting goaltender?

As for Petry, it was a reasonable contract but I don't know if I consider it as big ofa bargain as it's being made out to be. In the end we are still talking about a guy with only one year under his belt and even then it was after being called up.

It's not unusual for a defenceman to slide back a little in their second year.

It could end up being a bargain but I wouldn't put it there yet.

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#32 BingBong
July 06 2012, 01:17PM
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At this point, both Dubnyk and Petry are unproven. In one case - Petry - the Oilers said "Let's see what you can do, then we'll pay you." In the other case - Dubnyk - the Oilers said "We'll pay you now, let's see what you can do". Maybe theyvfelt Dubs needed that vote of confidence? Who knows...

And for what it's worth, I believe goalie statistics (GAA, Save%, etc.) to be the most useless indicator of all time. Lalime had amazing stats too...

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#33 DSF
July 06 2012, 01:18PM
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dawgbone wrote:

@David S

Keep in mind Halak signed his deal 2 years ago when the cap was about $7mil less. If you look at in terms of cap %, the Dubnyk deal is far less than the Halak one was at time of signing.

Keep in mind Halak was coming off a season where he started 57 games, had a save percentage of .924 and followed that up with 18 playoff games where he posted a save percentage of .923.

Dubnyk is nothing like Halak.

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#34 Blucifer Copperballs
July 06 2012, 01:25PM
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They should sign Gagner to 4 year- $11.5 mil deal. It would show commitment from the team, and may give him the confidence to get to the 50-55 points per year mark. If not, he still has trade value and is not overpriced, and could be moved fairly easily towards, even halfway thru his contract , when he is getting to the peak NHl age of 25-26 years old.

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#35 T__Bone88
July 06 2012, 01:25PM
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Now would we be trying to run Gagner out of town if he was an extra two inches taller but brought the same style of play and skill set. Answer would be no. However I guess those one or two more inches means a lot to some *wink*

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#36 Blucifer Copperballs
July 06 2012, 01:28PM
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i'm also surprised that there has been no media on the talks between the oilers and Gagner. Personally, i think he is a good fit for our team, and has had alot of responsibilty put on him already for a guy thats not even 23 yet. It would be a shame for him to leave the oilers now. Besides, who replaces him at this point of the rebuild?

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#37 Dman09
July 06 2012, 01:34PM
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BingBong wrote:

At this point, both Dubnyk and Petry are unproven. In one case - Petry - the Oilers said "Let's see what you can do, then we'll pay you." In the other case - Dubnyk - the Oilers said "We'll pay you now, let's see what you can do". Maybe theyvfelt Dubs needed that vote of confidence? Who knows...

And for what it's worth, I believe goalie statistics (GAA, Save%, etc.) to be the most useless indicator of all time. Lalime had amazing stats too...

Ya one of the only stats that I would put a lot of weight on is games played. There is no substitute for experience. Thats also why only looking at the last two years doens't really mean as much. Some players just have off years, look at Ovi.

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#38 TwoSkidoos
July 06 2012, 01:41PM
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I don't mind either contract, and agreed, SG will likely get $3.2 or so.

Although, I don't think the Oil would be hampered if they packaged Hemsky up with perhaps Jones + a pick or prospect for a quality 1, 2, 3 defenseman.

We need more forwards like we need a hole in the head.

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#39 nunyour
July 06 2012, 01:53PM
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too much money for an unpoven goalie,pay him what he's worth not what you think he might be worth.

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#40 Quicksilver ballet
July 06 2012, 01:53PM
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@ David S

His offensive contribution helped the Oilers land the first overall pick for the third yr in a row. With it being a team game, why single out and focus on the successes of 89. Whatever, let him build a career based on success against softer opposition, we're splitting hairs here, he's definately a poor mans second line center. Clearly we're better off cheering for the laundry the players are wearing rather than the player wearing it.

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#41 Lord Stanley
July 06 2012, 01:58PM
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The Petry contract is a good deal. Dubnyk is a slight over payment at this point in his career but has shown the improvement to justify the $3.5M gamble.

Gagner is a proven 40+ point center that is small with a good offensive awareness that will get more than $3.5M a season.

What the Oilers are lacking in the center position isn’t just size but faceoff wins as well. With the Oilers offensive talent puck position will be a critical part of their success in the future.

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#42 Quicksilver ballet
July 06 2012, 02:00PM
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@ DSF....But the opposition is not the same size.

Statistics reveal 59% of the players in todays NHL game are a tad smaller/lighter than they were 25 yrs ago.

[compiled by Dr.Jan Itor statistics Inc]

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#43 Cody anderson
July 06 2012, 03:03PM
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Personally, I think longer term would show more faith in Dubnyk then a large amount. If he gets better numbers in front of an NHL D-corps he will be demanding a nice raise in 2 years just when cap hi will start to be an issue. I would have offered him options. 2 years at 2 million a piece or 5 years at 3 million a piece.

I think he is an underrated goalie. Our D was so bad the last feww years and his numbers are still up there with goalies playing on good defensive teams. I guarantee you can take any top goalie and put him on a lousy defensive 30th place team and his stats are going to take a beating.

I would like them to offer a similar contract to Gagner. 2 years at 2.5 million or 5 years at 3.5 million. The only way I want him at 4+ is if it is 5 yrs. I would also be playing him between Hall and Yak. You put him between those 2 and I can guarantee his stats will improve and he too will be looking at a healthy raise in 2 years if that is the length they sign him for.

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#44 ponderingoil
July 06 2012, 03:03PM
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I believe the future has Hartikainen on the top line with Nuge and Ebs. Paajarvi with Hall and Yak. This is not likely this year and maybe not for a couple of years. If the goal is to convert Hall to center than do it this year. The signing of Smyth allows lots of flexibility on top three lines on left wing. The time frame would suggest only Gagner and a prospect,pick or so needs to go for D help. Inflate Hemsky's numbers over next year and trade at deadline if that looks like way to go. There isn't a big rush to do anything. If a dman can be had cheap thru trade or fa then do it.

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#45 boxman
July 06 2012, 03:11PM
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DSF, I would like to think you are just trolling and not as unhappy as you appear. Start small and see if you can smile once a week and then take it from there. As for the Oilers I love how they are handling things and soon I will wear the colours with 1980's pride again.

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#46 OilLeak
July 06 2012, 03:47PM
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A 3 year deal puts Gagner at unrestricted free agency. Either sign him long term or 1 year deal would be the best course of action.

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#47 DieHard
July 06 2012, 03:52PM
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ponderingoil wrote:

I believe the future has Hartikainen on the top line with Nuge and Ebs. Paajarvi with Hall and Yak. This is not likely this year and maybe not for a couple of years. If the goal is to convert Hall to center than do it this year. The signing of Smyth allows lots of flexibility on top three lines on left wing. The time frame would suggest only Gagner and a prospect,pick or so needs to go for D help. Inflate Hemsky's numbers over next year and trade at deadline if that looks like way to go. There isn't a big rush to do anything. If a dman can be had cheap thru trade or fa then do it.

I'm not picking on you. You may be right down the line with your thoughts ... But ... Everybody wants to get rid of Hemsky including you and I disagree. I think Hemsky (and Smid) love the city and want to play their entire career here. After this contract Hemsky will be, in essense, 31 and will probably take a "hometown" discount and play for a few more years AND win a cup.

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#48 nathan
July 06 2012, 03:59PM
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Gregor,

Off topic but she's right.

http://www.bears.ualberta.ca/en/Teams/Football/~/media/Athletics/Documents/TeamHist-Bears_Football.pdf

"From the fall of 1949 to the fall of 1958 inclusive the Bears program again went into dormancy, as there was no competition in the West. The University gave the Edmonton Eskimos of the Canadian Football their jerseys, and the Eskimos adopted Green and Gold as their colours."

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#49 Oiler Al
July 06 2012, 05:02PM
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Gagner is a 5 yr veteran... with 40+ points in each year. Arbitration could get him something close to the $4.00 range. I guess its his choice to go through the procedure. Can't really blame him as it seems every other day he is being traded for a D man.

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#50 Brownlee loves the word meow
July 06 2012, 05:03PM
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David S wrote:

I'd have no problem with that number if Dubnyk had proven he's a #1 goalie. So far we think he might be one. He's making almost as much as Halak and I know which of the two I'd rather have in our net.*

*Hint: Rhymes with Balak.

haha Hint taken. I like the cut of your jib sir.

Id argue that when Halak was signed he relatively was in the same spot Dubnyk is in now. Unproven to a point. And now that Halak has proven his worth, he is a bargain at his current contract. Here is to hoping Dubnyk does the same. His numbers on a horrible team at least suggest he has a chance to be.

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