KEEPERS!

Lowetide
August 26 2012 11:32AM

For the first time in memory, the Oilers "goalie of the future" is the incumbent NHL #1, Devan Dubnyk. In this look at the organization's goalies, the major question is this: do the Oilers have another NHL goalie in their system?

DEVAN DUBNYK

The Oilers took Dubnyk's development slowly, and that is the likely template for the kids in the system. Dubnyk's timeline looks like a Greyhound 'milk run' route, as he stopped in every possible place before Edmonton. It did two things: gave Dubnyk time to find his way as a goalie and find better consistency (still an issue), and it gave the organization a chance to decide between DD and Jeff Deslauriers.

Projecting goalies is a loser's bet. Anyone who tells you they knew Tim Thomas would turn into Tim Thomas is a liar. NHL teams rarely draft goalies as high as Dubnyk went (#14 overall in the "Rob Schremp" draft) because of it. Dubnyk's progression--and especially his even strength SP totals at the NHL level--suggests he may do the unlikely and cover the draft bet.

NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN

His time in Edmonton has been less than ideal, but the career has been a good one. Unlikely HOF level, but beginning with the Jets and then going to Phoenix, winning a Stanley in TBAY and then Chicago, Khabibulin's 783 NHL games ranks him 16th all-time. 2012-13 is likely to be his last in the NHL, but then again we're talking about goaltenders. Oiler fans will remember him fondly for his performance in the SCF against Calgary, but his Edmonton years have been a struggle.

YANN DANIS

Voted AHL 'Goalie of the Year' by that league's coaches and General Managers, Danis re-signed with the Oilers to play in OKC but could end up spending time in Edmonton. The Oilers needed a strong 3rd on the depth chart, and based on his performance with the Barons last season Danis would appear to be a solid option.

OLIVIER ROY

Young man enjoyed a strong pro debut season with Stockton (ECHL). One might conclude he is not a top level prospect based on spending time in a second tier pro league as a rookie, but we have to remember that Dubnyk was brought along the same way. Roy was one of the best goalies in that league in 11-12, and he was outstanding in a cup of coffee with the Barons in the AHL. Oiler fans will remember that Roy's acquisition came via a draft day trade with the Minnesota Wild that brought in the picks that turned into Roy and Kyle Bigos. Roy has to be considered a legit NHL prospect at this time, although the Goalie Guild has stated (before he turned pro) in the past "he plays a very constricted butterfly style and he has plenty of refining and improving to do to his game."

TYLER BUNZ

Bunz is my choice as the best goalie 'bubbling under' based on an exceptional season in Medicine Hat. One of the indicators for future success among goalies is SP, and Bunz' final season in the WHL compares well to other goalies drafted by the Oilers during their final junior seasons in the CHL:

  • Bunz .921 (2nd WHL)
  • Jeff Deslauriers .916
  • Devan Dubnyk .912 (tied for 12th WHL)
  • Oliver Roy .911 (tied for 4th in QMJHL)
  • Bryan Pitton .911 (tied for 9th OHL)

Bunz is 6.01, 203--not Dubnyk large but he covers a lot of net. The smart money has Bunz playing most or all of the 12-13 season in Stockton; Edmonton did that with Dubnyk and with Roy and it would seem to be an organizational discipline. Bunz is an outstanding stickhandler too. The major concern with this player is concussions

SAMU PERHONEN

As much as I love following prospects and their progress, getting information on goalies in Europe is a chore. Perhonen is a big, raw goaltending prospect Edmonton drafted in the 3rd round of the draft. The Oilers love the kid, but even the strongest supporters of Perhonen admit he's going to be a long term development player. A solid showing in the Finnish junior league this season was overshadowed by an uneven performance at higher levels.

Our friend Kirk Luedeke summed up Perhonen very well before the draft: He’s got the lively size, athleticism and solid butterfly technique to be an NHL stopper in time. He reminds us of Tuukka Rask in terms of his body type and playing style and competes with the same kind of swagger and confidence when on top of his game.

FRANS TUOHIMAA

There are some things to consider in regard to Tuohimaa. Although he was the last goalie drafted on this list, he’s one month younger than Olivier Roy, meaning that Tyler Bunz (6 months) and Samu Perhonen (18 months) are younger than Tuohimaa.

He's a tall, thin goalie and is inconsistent based on his play in the SM-Liiga (18, .898). He did perform well in the tier 2 Finnish league but would have to be considered a long shot for NHL employment at this time.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

For an organization that is waiting for the maturation process in most areas, it is interesting to see the goaltending position filled by a player who should be entering the heart of his NHL career. Devan Dubnyk offers the Oilers a young, stable option at an important position. The Oilers need to make certain Dubnyk's backup is capable (Danis I believe addresses it), but there would seem to be very little need to draft or procure a strong goaltending option with a high pick any time soon.

Outside the NHL, the two best prospects are Roy and Bunz--who could be NHL ready in the next couple of seasons. Although goaltending is not an area of strength, the procurement department has done a good job of drafting and the development department delivered a #1 in Devan Dubnyk. If one of Bunz or Roy can emerge in the next three seasons, Edmonton might have enough depth to deal from strength to address weakness.

It's been awhile since we could say that about any position.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 DSF
August 26 2012, 09:46PM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

Again you stand by the total stat of total games played. Again I tell you seperate the time from back up to time as a starter and you will notice a huge difference in GAA and SV% to bring his totals up to .914. The starter generally is sharper is because as anyone who knows or played hockey gets the bulk of the work in pratice and of course in games. Now I ask you again and this time take a moment to ponder would D/D have better numbers behind say 10 out of the 15 teams defences. For example lets see is Rinne's and Howards numbers change this year now that they have lost their all stars in front of them. As the one poster posted with and expierenced defence the goaltender can cheat because he knows where most of the shots are going to come from. We will see.

There is no difference.

His SV% was higher in 2011/12 and his GAA was virtually the same:

10/11 2.72

11/12 2.67

Based on what we can see, he's a below average goaltender on a bad defensive team.

Expecting different results just because he starts more games in 12/13 is just silly.

There's a very good chance that the added responsibility and the higher expectations based on his contract will have the opposite effect.

He no longer has a safety net.

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#52 longbottom/P.Biglow
August 26 2012, 09:52PM
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DSF wrote:

Chicago and Columbus goaltending was atrocious last season based on any parameter.

Oiler goaltending was better...but not by much.

Arguing whether Dubnyk is less mediocre than those goaltenders is pretty much meaningless.

He's a below average goaltender on a crappy defensive team.

Anointing him the starter and paying him for it is just more of the same old, same old.

On many good teams, he'd be in the AHL.

Wow now i know you are just a troll here that is not facing reality. The Point was If Dubnyk's stats on a 30-28 place defence were 11th in the league or hell even in the western confernce means he isn't below average, it would point to him being above average on a below average defence. A good defense will make a goalie look great. A below average defense will make any goalie look bad. Your so fond of Vancouver let's use Luongo for an example. rookie season with the Islanders-GAA 3.25 & a 904 sv% wow he sucked there by your own parameters. 5 seasons in Florida his best season was 2.43 GAA and a 931 SV% marginal better numbers because the the defense was marginally better. His Vancouvers numbers make him look like he is one of the best in the league on a team with argueable the best defense overall in the league. chew on that for awhile.

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#53 longbottom/P.Biglow
August 26 2012, 10:00PM
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DSF wrote:

There is no difference.

His SV% was higher in 2011/12 and his GAA was virtually the same:

10/11 2.72

11/12 2.67

Based on what we can see, he's a below average goaltender on a bad defensive team.

Expecting different results just because he starts more games in 12/13 is just silly.

There's a very good chance that the added responsibility and the higher expectations based on his contract will have the opposite effect.

He no longer has a safety net.

All you are doing is splitting 2 seasons work. try being a stats junkie and look at his numbers as a back-up and as a starter, as a back up how many games in a row did he play? how many back to back games did he play? If you are going to just be lazy and spout off about his seasons totals then try digging a little bit further and you will see you are burying yourself with every comeback you have.

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#54 WinterNightSky
August 26 2012, 10:10PM
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To clear up the discrepancy between JW and DSF: JW is using the last 2 years, with a minimum of 50 games played over the two. DSF is using just last year. So we see an uncommon consistency in DD's SV%, which is nice. Unfortunately, we might've hoped for some progress.

I'm comfortable considering DD the keeper of the future. But the present is 29th place, and the improvement had better come from behind the bench.

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#55 longbottom/P.Biglow
August 26 2012, 11:01PM
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WinterNightSky wrote:

To clear up the discrepancy between JW and DSF: JW is using the last 2 years, with a minimum of 50 games played over the two. DSF is using just last year. So we see an uncommon consistency in DD's SV%, which is nice. Unfortunately, we might've hoped for some progress.

I'm comfortable considering DD the keeper of the future. But the present is 29th place, and the improvement had better come from behind the bench.

I do agree with you. Will Kreuger be the missing motivator that can improve this team? Since he has a background in this field I feel there can be a little room for hope.

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#56 David S
August 27 2012, 12:23AM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

I do agree with you. Will Kreuger be the missing motivator that can improve this team? Since he has a background in this field I feel there can be a little room for hope.

It won't be Krueger as much as the marching orders he gets from management. Alot of what Renney did (or didn't do) last year was consistent with a team gunning for a high pick. I won't go into specifics here because the list is long and obvious to anybody who watched the entire season.

Renney took the pipe in order to show fans and the league the team wasn't tanking - which they almost certainly were. I'd bet alot of cash he would have played things WAY different if his real mandate was to win. Krueger will probably get that chance, so he'll come off looking far better.

If Renney was a crappy coach he wouldn't have been picked up almost immediately like he was. The other teams knew what was going on.

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#57 Cheap Shot Charlie
August 27 2012, 12:43AM
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@DSF

I really thought 'we' (you) had made a giant step today but I check back in and we're (all us who ever use ON) are in the same place. If your winter driving is anything like your posting I think I'll be pushing you out o a snow bank but it's a lot of tire spinning!

Here's a *HUG* as consolation that it might never get any better. (You or the Oilers) But it can be fun to watch! :)

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#58 longbottom/P.Biglow
August 27 2012, 12:47AM
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David S wrote:

It won't be Krueger as much as the marching orders he gets from management. Alot of what Renney did (or didn't do) last year was consistent with a team gunning for a high pick. I won't go into specifics here because the list is long and obvious to anybody who watched the entire season.

Renney took the pipe in order to show fans and the league the team wasn't tanking - which they almost certainly were. I'd bet alot of cash he would have played things WAY different if his real mandate was to win. Krueger will probably get that chance, so he'll come off looking far better.

If Renney was a crappy coach he wouldn't have been picked up almost immediately like he was. The other teams knew what was going on.

Renney isn't and never has been a crappy coach. The difference between the two is Kreuger is also a motivational speaker. And as intelligent as Renney is he isnt and never has been one.And I never get tired of you guys who feel like the manegment told the coach to hold the reins in on this team. Was the coach telling the players to get injured? As happened when the longest losing trend happened at the same time as when 4 out the oiler's top 6 defensemen were either on the IR or as in Suttons case suspended. were manegement at fault for Belanger an average 30-40 point guy having a rotten season apart from his FO% Was it management's fault it took almost a full season for Hemsky and Whitney to recover from their offseason injuries? Funny how manegement is at fault for Khabi's season to fall off so badly so quickly. All these add up to a below average team being just plain rotten at times. I will believe the facts over conspirisousy theorys anyday.

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#59 DSF
August 27 2012, 09:27AM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

Wow now i know you are just a troll here that is not facing reality. The Point was If Dubnyk's stats on a 30-28 place defence were 11th in the league or hell even in the western confernce means he isn't below average, it would point to him being above average on a below average defence. A good defense will make a goalie look great. A below average defense will make any goalie look bad. Your so fond of Vancouver let's use Luongo for an example. rookie season with the Islanders-GAA 3.25 & a 904 sv% wow he sucked there by your own parameters. 5 seasons in Florida his best season was 2.43 GAA and a 931 SV% marginal better numbers because the the defense was marginally better. His Vancouvers numbers make him look like he is one of the best in the league on a team with argueable the best defense overall in the league. chew on that for awhile.

Interesting you would pull Luongo out of your quiver as a comparable for Dubnyk.

Luongo hit the NHL at the age of 20...Dubnyk is now 26.

More appropriate to use Cory Schneider since he is the same age and had a somewhat similar development path.

Dubnyk - 1st round pick (14th overall) 2004 entry draft.

06/07 ECHL .921

07/08 AHL .904

08/09 AHL .910

09/10 AHL .915 NHL .889

10/11 NHL .916

11/12 NHL .914

Schneider - 1st round pick (26th overall) 2004 entry draft

06/07 Boston College

07/08 AHL .916

08/09 AHL .930 NHL .877

09/10 AHL .919 NHL .915

10/11 NHL .929

11/12 NHL .937

Take a close look at what happens in 08/09 and after.

One of these players appears to be an above average goaltender...the other....not so much.

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#60 David S
August 27 2012, 10:00AM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

Renney isn't and never has been a crappy coach. The difference between the two is Kreuger is also a motivational speaker. And as intelligent as Renney is he isnt and never has been one.And I never get tired of you guys who feel like the manegment told the coach to hold the reins in on this team. Was the coach telling the players to get injured? As happened when the longest losing trend happened at the same time as when 4 out the oiler's top 6 defensemen were either on the IR or as in Suttons case suspended. were manegement at fault for Belanger an average 30-40 point guy having a rotten season apart from his FO% Was it management's fault it took almost a full season for Hemsky and Whitney to recover from their offseason injuries? Funny how manegement is at fault for Khabi's season to fall off so badly so quickly. All these add up to a below average team being just plain rotten at times. I will believe the facts over conspirisousy theorys anyday.

[EDIT] That was a bit harsh. What I meant to say was that Tom Renney has also been a motivational speaker, perhaps just not as dedicated as Krueger. In fact, I tried several times to get into events where Tom was a speaker for that reason specifically.

http://www.sirc.ca/news_view.cfm?id=44210

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#61 billylikestodrinksoda
August 27 2012, 10:13AM
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DSF wrote:

Interesting you would pull Luongo out of your quiver as a comparable for Dubnyk.

Luongo hit the NHL at the age of 20...Dubnyk is now 26.

More appropriate to use Cory Schneider since he is the same age and had a somewhat similar development path.

Dubnyk - 1st round pick (14th overall) 2004 entry draft.

06/07 ECHL .921

07/08 AHL .904

08/09 AHL .910

09/10 AHL .915 NHL .889

10/11 NHL .916

11/12 NHL .914

Schneider - 1st round pick (26th overall) 2004 entry draft

06/07 Boston College

07/08 AHL .916

08/09 AHL .930 NHL .877

09/10 AHL .919 NHL .915

10/11 NHL .929

11/12 NHL .937

Take a close look at what happens in 08/09 and after.

One of these players appears to be an above average goaltender...the other....not so much.

But one was playing on the worst team in the league and the other was on one of the best?

And yes, his AHL numbers are much better than Dubnyks, but the Oilers also had very poor farm teams, while the Moose were one of the top teams in the AHL.

You make compelling cases most of the time DSF, but you choose to ignore key points sometimes and I dont understand why?

Theres presenting a logical reasonable argument based on the facts you have given, and then there's being able to see the otherside of the story as well, and understanding why people think that way.

You choose to believe you know it all, which in my estimation doesn't show intelligence at all. It just shows ignorance and a inability to progress yourself on the mental level.

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#62 Cody anderson
August 27 2012, 10:49AM
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There is no question that a strong defence is going to improve a goalie's stats. It is very obvious that there will be more quality scoring chances against a very weak defence then there would be against an elite defence.

Anyone who does not see this or agree with this is delusional. Obviously we have only seen Dubnyk play in front of the worst D corps in the NHL. Our D is still far from elite, but if healthy it is certainly improving. I look forward to seeing how much the D has improved and how Dubnyk plays in front of that improved defence.

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#63 gerberoo
August 27 2012, 12:31PM
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On the note of Bunz being a excellent stickhandler. I saw him do several lacrosee style shots on his own net at the develepment camp. Very impressive! Not sure if it's easier or harder to pick up a puck with a goalie stick but it was very unexpected and done with style.

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#64 bdiddy18
August 27 2012, 01:51PM
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DSF wrote:

Interesting you would pull Luongo out of your quiver as a comparable for Dubnyk.

Luongo hit the NHL at the age of 20...Dubnyk is now 26.

More appropriate to use Cory Schneider since he is the same age and had a somewhat similar development path.

Dubnyk - 1st round pick (14th overall) 2004 entry draft.

06/07 ECHL .921

07/08 AHL .904

08/09 AHL .910

09/10 AHL .915 NHL .889

10/11 NHL .916

11/12 NHL .914

Schneider - 1st round pick (26th overall) 2004 entry draft

06/07 Boston College

07/08 AHL .916

08/09 AHL .930 NHL .877

09/10 AHL .919 NHL .915

10/11 NHL .929

11/12 NHL .937

Take a close look at what happens in 08/09 and after.

One of these players appears to be an above average goaltender...the other....not so much.

Schneider in playoffs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH407eDlAVI

he gets ouwies

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#65 nunyour
August 27 2012, 06:58PM
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forget your stats page and watch the game,dubnyk let in many weak goals that were no one's fault but his own.i hope he improves.

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#66 Hags9k
August 28 2012, 12:48AM
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@Lowetide

Yes he was poor... But he was also unconscious at the start of the year and played at a level not seen since Roli and Dubnyk's best stretches were not of the calibre NK showed those first 12 games. We can say he's done as a #1, and yes obviously the Oilers are moving along with DD as the #1. But why does that also mean he can't be an effective #2?

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#67 dawgbone
August 28 2012, 08:08AM
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Hags9k wrote:

Yes he was poor... But he was also unconscious at the start of the year and played at a level not seen since Roli and Dubnyk's best stretches were not of the calibre NK showed those first 12 games. We can say he's done as a #1, and yes obviously the Oilers are moving along with DD as the #1. But why does that also mean he can't be an effective #2?

Khabibulin had a .937 sv% over his first 12 games. Both Roli and Dubnyk have put up similar numbers over a similar number of games.

Khabibulin's sv% was at .964 over his first 9 games and steadily fell from there all season.

So yeah, he gets full marks for putting up that kind of run, but ultimately that's not the kind of goaltender he is, so it's a moot point.

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