KEEPERS!

Lowetide
August 26 2012 11:32AM

For the first time in memory, the Oilers "goalie of the future" is the incumbent NHL #1, Devan Dubnyk. In this look at the organization's goalies, the major question is this: do the Oilers have another NHL goalie in their system?

DEVAN DUBNYK

The Oilers took Dubnyk's development slowly, and that is the likely template for the kids in the system. Dubnyk's timeline looks like a Greyhound 'milk run' route, as he stopped in every possible place before Edmonton. It did two things: gave Dubnyk time to find his way as a goalie and find better consistency (still an issue), and it gave the organization a chance to decide between DD and Jeff Deslauriers.

Projecting goalies is a loser's bet. Anyone who tells you they knew Tim Thomas would turn into Tim Thomas is a liar. NHL teams rarely draft goalies as high as Dubnyk went (#14 overall in the "Rob Schremp" draft) because of it. Dubnyk's progression--and especially his even strength SP totals at the NHL level--suggests he may do the unlikely and cover the draft bet.

NIKOLAI KHABIBULIN

His time in Edmonton has been less than ideal, but the career has been a good one. Unlikely HOF level, but beginning with the Jets and then going to Phoenix, winning a Stanley in TBAY and then Chicago, Khabibulin's 783 NHL games ranks him 16th all-time. 2012-13 is likely to be his last in the NHL, but then again we're talking about goaltenders. Oiler fans will remember him fondly for his performance in the SCF against Calgary, but his Edmonton years have been a struggle.

YANN DANIS

Voted AHL 'Goalie of the Year' by that league's coaches and General Managers, Danis re-signed with the Oilers to play in OKC but could end up spending time in Edmonton. The Oilers needed a strong 3rd on the depth chart, and based on his performance with the Barons last season Danis would appear to be a solid option.

OLIVIER ROY

Young man enjoyed a strong pro debut season with Stockton (ECHL). One might conclude he is not a top level prospect based on spending time in a second tier pro league as a rookie, but we have to remember that Dubnyk was brought along the same way. Roy was one of the best goalies in that league in 11-12, and he was outstanding in a cup of coffee with the Barons in the AHL. Oiler fans will remember that Roy's acquisition came via a draft day trade with the Minnesota Wild that brought in the picks that turned into Roy and Kyle Bigos. Roy has to be considered a legit NHL prospect at this time, although the Goalie Guild has stated (before he turned pro) in the past "he plays a very constricted butterfly style and he has plenty of refining and improving to do to his game."

TYLER BUNZ

Bunz is my choice as the best goalie 'bubbling under' based on an exceptional season in Medicine Hat. One of the indicators for future success among goalies is SP, and Bunz' final season in the WHL compares well to other goalies drafted by the Oilers during their final junior seasons in the CHL:

  • Bunz .921 (2nd WHL)
  • Jeff Deslauriers .916
  • Devan Dubnyk .912 (tied for 12th WHL)
  • Oliver Roy .911 (tied for 4th in QMJHL)
  • Bryan Pitton .911 (tied for 9th OHL)

Bunz is 6.01, 203--not Dubnyk large but he covers a lot of net. The smart money has Bunz playing most or all of the 12-13 season in Stockton; Edmonton did that with Dubnyk and with Roy and it would seem to be an organizational discipline. Bunz is an outstanding stickhandler too. The major concern with this player is concussions

SAMU PERHONEN

As much as I love following prospects and their progress, getting information on goalies in Europe is a chore. Perhonen is a big, raw goaltending prospect Edmonton drafted in the 3rd round of the draft. The Oilers love the kid, but even the strongest supporters of Perhonen admit he's going to be a long term development player. A solid showing in the Finnish junior league this season was overshadowed by an uneven performance at higher levels.

Our friend Kirk Luedeke summed up Perhonen very well before the draft: He’s got the lively size, athleticism and solid butterfly technique to be an NHL stopper in time. He reminds us of Tuukka Rask in terms of his body type and playing style and competes with the same kind of swagger and confidence when on top of his game.

FRANS TUOHIMAA

There are some things to consider in regard to Tuohimaa. Although he was the last goalie drafted on this list, he’s one month younger than Olivier Roy, meaning that Tyler Bunz (6 months) and Samu Perhonen (18 months) are younger than Tuohimaa.

He's a tall, thin goalie and is inconsistent based on his play in the SM-Liiga (18, .898). He did perform well in the tier 2 Finnish league but would have to be considered a long shot for NHL employment at this time.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

For an organization that is waiting for the maturation process in most areas, it is interesting to see the goaltending position filled by a player who should be entering the heart of his NHL career. Devan Dubnyk offers the Oilers a young, stable option at an important position. The Oilers need to make certain Dubnyk's backup is capable (Danis I believe addresses it), but there would seem to be very little need to draft or procure a strong goaltending option with a high pick any time soon.

Outside the NHL, the two best prospects are Roy and Bunz--who could be NHL ready in the next couple of seasons. Although goaltending is not an area of strength, the procurement department has done a good job of drafting and the development department delivered a #1 in Devan Dubnyk. If one of Bunz or Roy can emerge in the next three seasons, Edmonton might have enough depth to deal from strength to address weakness.

It's been awhile since we could say that about any position.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 Jonathan Willis
August 26 2012, 01:01PM
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@DSF

That's a pretty selective sampling, DSF. I don't think we know if Dubnyk is a starter or not yet, either, but you're underselling his track record.

Here's the list of goalies w/ a minimum of 50 GP over the last two seasons, ranked by save percentage. Dubnyk is 22 of 44 and within 0.001 SV% of Fleury, Bryzgalov, Miller, Hiller, Theodore, Varlamov, and Howard over that span.

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#4 Jonathan Willis
August 26 2012, 02:00PM
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@DSF

Uh, no. Seven teams in the Western Conference have a better starting goalie by SV%. Seven other teams in the West have an inferior starter by SV%.

I'm really not sure why you're stuck on this point , but Dubnyk's basically been the definition of average over his first two seasons (and that's not meant in a negative way).

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#5 pelhem grenville
August 26 2012, 11:49AM
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...i'm gonna try to put words in your mouth DSF

...i don't believe Dubnyk is a starter

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#6 DSF
August 26 2012, 11:41AM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

...oh my where does one start?

Try the beginning...

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#7 Kieso
August 26 2012, 01:21PM
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@ Willis and all stats guys;

As a guy who played goal in a number of sports, no not professional level at all but for a long time, I can say that save percentage, while and important measure of ranking, is still flawed to some degree.

When I played on good teams my save percentages went up and I always looked a little better.

Shots at the net where generally more "predicatable" as the team defence in front of me did what I expected and the shots came in from areas of the playing field I expected them to come from. When you are on a team with bad defence shots came in from everywhere as a goalie you can quicky lose your structure and confidence - this causes you to have to guess and be ready for anything if the team defence in front is suspect.

Hence, in my opinion, save percentage has by used in conjunction with the "seen him good" stat as well. I suspect DD will be just fine with improved team defence.

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#8 David S
August 26 2012, 01:31PM
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Kieso wrote:

@ Willis and all stats guys;

As a guy who played goal in a number of sports, no not professional level at all but for a long time, I can say that save percentage, while and important measure of ranking, is still flawed to some degree.

When I played on good teams my save percentages went up and I always looked a little better.

Shots at the net where generally more "predicatable" as the team defence in front of me did what I expected and the shots came in from areas of the playing field I expected them to come from. When you are on a team with bad defence shots came in from everywhere as a goalie you can quicky lose your structure and confidence - this causes you to have to guess and be ready for anything if the team defence in front is suspect.

Hence, in my opinion, save percentage has by used in conjunction with the "seen him good" stat as well. I suspect DD will be just fine with improved team defence.

"Marginal improved team defence", as we haven't added any significant upgrades and are hoping for Whitney to return to days of yore, which won't happen.

Adding a rookie (no matter how great he might be one day), counting on player maturation and pining for a player who never will be at the same level he once was is a sure fire recipe for "24th place".

One decent D man. Not a superstar, just a decent defensive zone player. That and an NHL caliber backup for Dubnyk. We could have made some hay with those improvements.

SIGHHHHHHHH.

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#9 JL
August 26 2012, 09:16PM
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DSF,

You actually proved our point.

First, you mention that Chicago let in 1 fewer goal than the Oilers. That's great news because their defence is much better then what the Oilers put out last year. Meaning the difference was actually goaltending. So there is a check mark for Dubnyk.

Second, you said GAA is more accurate for team defense. If the Oilers GAA is in between 2.65-2.67(which is a marginal difference), than we would have the third worst team defence in the WC BY YOUR PARAMETERS. Yet Dubnyk is posting the 11th best save%. Meaning he is actually making the oilers better.

Just thought you would like to see that =).

I do agree with you that Khabi should have been replaced by someone who is a more likely bet going into the season. Denis is alright but i don't know how he would hold up if forced into a starting role.

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#10 David S
August 27 2012, 12:23AM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

I do agree with you. Will Kreuger be the missing motivator that can improve this team? Since he has a background in this field I feel there can be a little room for hope.

It won't be Krueger as much as the marching orders he gets from management. Alot of what Renney did (or didn't do) last year was consistent with a team gunning for a high pick. I won't go into specifics here because the list is long and obvious to anybody who watched the entire season.

Renney took the pipe in order to show fans and the league the team wasn't tanking - which they almost certainly were. I'd bet alot of cash he would have played things WAY different if his real mandate was to win. Krueger will probably get that chance, so he'll come off looking far better.

If Renney was a crappy coach he wouldn't have been picked up almost immediately like he was. The other teams knew what was going on.

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#11 billylikestodrinksoda
August 27 2012, 10:13AM
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DSF wrote:

Interesting you would pull Luongo out of your quiver as a comparable for Dubnyk.

Luongo hit the NHL at the age of 20...Dubnyk is now 26.

More appropriate to use Cory Schneider since he is the same age and had a somewhat similar development path.

Dubnyk - 1st round pick (14th overall) 2004 entry draft.

06/07 ECHL .921

07/08 AHL .904

08/09 AHL .910

09/10 AHL .915 NHL .889

10/11 NHL .916

11/12 NHL .914

Schneider - 1st round pick (26th overall) 2004 entry draft

06/07 Boston College

07/08 AHL .916

08/09 AHL .930 NHL .877

09/10 AHL .919 NHL .915

10/11 NHL .929

11/12 NHL .937

Take a close look at what happens in 08/09 and after.

One of these players appears to be an above average goaltender...the other....not so much.

But one was playing on the worst team in the league and the other was on one of the best?

And yes, his AHL numbers are much better than Dubnyks, but the Oilers also had very poor farm teams, while the Moose were one of the top teams in the AHL.

You make compelling cases most of the time DSF, but you choose to ignore key points sometimes and I dont understand why?

Theres presenting a logical reasonable argument based on the facts you have given, and then there's being able to see the otherside of the story as well, and understanding why people think that way.

You choose to believe you know it all, which in my estimation doesn't show intelligence at all. It just shows ignorance and a inability to progress yourself on the mental level.

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#12 pelhem grenville
August 26 2012, 11:36AM
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...oh my where does one start?

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#13 pelhem grenville
August 26 2012, 11:43AM
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DSF wrote:

Try the beginning...

...i was just there

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#14 Cervantes
August 26 2012, 11:53AM
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I really wish Tambo wasn't so prideful, so we could send NK down and bring up Yan. Not out of spite, but because we're going to need a solid vet backup to perform well for a few years behind Duby, and we need to see if Danis can be that guy for more than 2 games.

Also, while the big club looks good, the farm team is one groin pull away from "stuck with completely raw kids", and that should be a concern. The team is pretty stacked with prospects working their way up to the bigs, the last thing they need is a miserable season screwing up their advancement.

Also, any keepers article reminds me that this is the year Tambo can extend NK. So, nightmares for the rest of the week, thanks for that.

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#16 pelhem grenville
August 26 2012, 11:59AM
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...extend NK?

breath taking...

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#17 pelhem grenville
August 26 2012, 12:08PM
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... i have hope and a bag of magic beans that Dubnyk has an equally good first half of the season as his second half last season...

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#18 DSF
August 26 2012, 12:14PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

...i'm gonna try to put words in your mouth DSF

...i don't believe Dubnyk is a starter

I don't think we know if Dubnyk is a starter.

We do know that Khabibulin isn't an NHL goaltender any longer.

Going into a season with those factors in play is very risky.

Ask Brian Burke.

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#19 David S
August 26 2012, 12:27PM
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Like it or not, getting rid of Khabby now would pretty much confirm the team was full-on tanking the last couple of seasons. Even though they were, no way will the team openly admit it. There's alot of pride in that office over on Kingsway. He's here until he goes down with yet another "lower body injury". That'll give them the out they need to pull up Danis or bring in a viable #2 option.

So, thirty games or so into the season we'll see some movement. That'll put us on or near March this year. SIGHHHHHHH.

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#21 Walter Sobchak
August 26 2012, 12:41PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

...i'm gonna try to put words in your mouth DSF

...i don't believe Dubnyk is a starter

Right now I agree with this, as well as DSF comment on the Leafs. I still think there are way to many unknowns for this team to make a huge break through, and goaltending maybe the biggest.

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#22 Lexi
August 26 2012, 12:43PM
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I believe DD has done enough to justify taking a chance on him as a starter for a "do or die" year. Then depending on how he performs there should be a wide variety of goalies available next year. If he flops and we need a starter, a few of Backstrom, Bernier, Howard, Hiller, Theodore, Lehtonen, Smith, or Nabokov should be available. If he's okay, one of Karlsson, Greiss, Budaj, Mason, Garon, Scrivens, Enroth, Neuvirth, Boucher, Ellis, Allen, Bachman, Pasquele or Labarbara should fit the bill. One guy I am assuming they are keeping an eye on is Eddie Lack, who I assume MacT has an inside scoop on.

This year also gives them one more year to evaluate Bunz and Roy's progress and determine whether they NHLers or not. Finding the right quality goalie next offseason is one test this management team should pass or else we are in trouble.

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#23 Raymond
August 26 2012, 12:46PM
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Doesn't Bunz have a drinking problem like Khabibulin? Both had impaired driving charges, both members of AA

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#24 DSF
August 26 2012, 12:48PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Dubnyk at evens has had two nice seasons now. His EV SP 10-11 was .921, and in 11-12 .927; which was good enough for a 14th place tie--about mid-pack and solid to impressive based on his experience and the team in front of him.

Dubnyk has some issues--PP SP, consistency--but I think (as do the Oilers based on the contract) he's earned the #1 job.

WC SV% (minimum 10 games)

5V5

Elliot .945

Halak .938

Smith .936

Quick .933

Schneider .931

Griess .931

Backstrom .931

Luongo .929

Howard .929

Bachman .929

Kiprusoff .928

Rinne .928

Dubnyk .927

McDonald .927

Niemi .926

Lehtonen .926

Hackett .925

J.S Gigeure .924

Varlamov .923

Harding .923

Sanford .923

Ellis .923

Not sure how you get middle of the pack out of that.

Most observers think Columbus has pretty crappy goaltending and Dubnyk's save percentage was .004 better than Sanford's.

Then, when you look at 4V5 SV%, Dubnyk's was .862 while many of the good goalies in the league actually had a higher save percentage while their team was shorthanded.

Thomas .978

Hiller .977

Ward .972

Lundqvist .972

Lehtonen .971

Schneider .960

Sanford .955

Quick .946

And so on....

Dubnyk .862

I don't think you can just throw out the short handed save percentage to prove a point.

Obviously there is an issue there.

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#25 Reg Dunlop
August 26 2012, 12:49PM
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Khabbi, like many european vets angling for a new contract, will have a solid season leading to some poor team(thankfully not the oil) signing him to 2+ years. NHL GMs are a guillable bunch. Unless Dubnyk plays lights-out look for a near 50-50-split with Khabbi having the predictable looking-for-a-new-contract bounce back year.

As for the future, I think that Patrick Roy still has some tread left, but Bunz has the name that media will 'eat up'. The Bunz is in the oven, it'll be ready soon.

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#26 David S
August 26 2012, 12:58PM
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Lowetide wrote:

David S: I don't think he plays 30 games all season. Dubnyk is going to get the lion's share of the starts imo and it wouldn't be impossible to suggest a couple of mid-week 'emergency callups' for Danis when the Barons aren't playing.

By the numbers, Khabby should go down after playing two-three games. Since Dubnyk will get the first twenty or so starts in a season which may be 60 or so games in length, you're looking at roughly March. Thus my projected schedule.

My god that makes me sad. No NHL hockey until November. I can barely make it to season startup as it is.

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#27 David S
August 26 2012, 01:00PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

Khabbi, like many european vets angling for a new contract, will have a solid season leading to some poor team(thankfully not the oil) signing him to 2+ years. NHL GMs are a guillable bunch. Unless Dubnyk plays lights-out look for a near 50-50-split with Khabbi having the predictable looking-for-a-new-contract bounce back year.

As for the future, I think that Patrick Roy still has some tread left, but Bunz has the name that media will 'eat up'. The Bunz is in the oven, it'll be ready soon.

And Danis is light years better than both of them.

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#28 Cheap Shot Charlie
August 26 2012, 01:01PM
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DSF wrote:

I don't think we know if Dubnyk is a starter.

We do know that Khabibulin isn't an NHL goaltender any longer.

Going into a season with those factors in play is very risky.

Ask Brian Burke.

I want to acknowledge the huge step you took today! You admired that 'we don't know'. Usually, you know something none of the rest of us know. 'We' (the term) may not be taking direct responsibility but 'we' is much closer to 'me or I' than we (ON citizens) have ever seen you (DSF) to taking ownership of not knowing something. This is a monumental day! Free *HUGS* for DSF!!!

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#29 Jonathan Willis
August 26 2012, 01:05PM
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@DSF

Also, you're using NHL.com wrong. "Shorthanded SV%" bizarrely refers to SV% while the goalies team is on the power play - count up the shots in shorthanded and power play and you'll see that I'm right.

So what you've listed is actually save percentage while their team is on the power play, where a starter *might* see 40 shots per year.

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#31 DSF
August 26 2012, 01:13PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

That's a pretty selective sampling, DSF. I don't think we know if Dubnyk is a starter or not yet, either, but you're underselling his track record.

Here's the list of goalies w/ a minimum of 50 GP over the last two seasons, ranked by save percentage. Dubnyk is 22 of 44 and within 0.001 SV% of Fleury, Bryzgalov, Miller, Hiller, Theodore, Varlamov, and Howard over that span.

So, based on those parameters, 10 teams in the WC have a goaltender with a better save percentage than Dubnyk and the Canucks have 2.

Sorry, Jon that only leaves 4 other teams so "mid pack" is not accurate.

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#32 DSF
August 26 2012, 01:15PM
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Lowetide wrote:

And playing in front of a porous defense, as they used to say. :-)

Have you found a correlation between ONSV% and "porous defense"?

Don't tell Woodguy.

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#33 Spydyr
August 26 2012, 01:37PM
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Why not give Khabby the options:

1)Retire 2)Ride the buses 3)Hurt your back and hit the long term IR

Then get a young goalie with upside via a trade, a late cut or from the waiver wire.

Get someone Dubs own age to push him.

Why not try to move forward rather then wasting another year on Khabby.

Perhaps Tambo is just trying to save face on his 4 year contract to Khabby?

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#34 speeds
August 26 2012, 01:47PM
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I believe EDM has to sign Perhonen and Tuohimaa by June 1, 2013, will be interesting to see if they sign either, both, or neither, with Dubnyk, Bunz and Roy already in the system. Not impossible they could sign both and only bring one to NA, I guess?

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#35 Jonathan Willis
August 26 2012, 01:58PM
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@Kieso

That's a comment I've seen before, and one that I respect, but I'd suggest that at the NHL level the difference between teams is smaller than at other levels of hockey. For example, in junior there seems to be a significant difference while in the NHL the difference exists but isn't nearly as big.

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#36 DSF
August 26 2012, 02:18PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Uh, no. Seven teams in the Western Conference have a better starting goalie by SV%. Seven other teams in the West have an inferior starter by SV%.

I'm really not sure why you're stuck on this point , but Dubnyk's basically been the definition of average over his first two seasons (and that's not meant in a negative way).

Really?

Using the parameters YOU set.

Schneider

Rinne

Quick

Luongo

Smith

Lehtonen

Niemi

Halak

Backstrom

Hiller

Varlamov

Now, you can argue that some of these goaltenders are not starters but you can also make the argument that Dubnyk hasn't been either and is just moving into that role as Schneider is doing in Vancouver.

At any rate, there are 10 teams with goaltenders who met the parameters you set with better save percentages.

If you want to raise the bar to something like 50 GP as a reasonable line for a starter, Dubnyk doesn't even qualify since he started only 42 games last season and 32 the season prior.

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#37 Walter Sobchak
August 26 2012, 02:30PM
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If Dubnyk plays 60 games, how many games does he win? If Khabibulin plays the rest how many does he win?

With these numbers Dubnyk would have to win 40+ games and Khabibulin would have to win half of his to make the playoffs.

Yikes!

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#38 DSF
August 26 2012, 03:05PM
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Lowetide wrote:

DSF: Your posts are impossible to understand.

speeds: At this point, I think Perhonen is the guy to sign, right?

Not sure what you're having a problem with.

Here's the WC starters with Games Started and SV% ranked by SV%

1) Smith (PHX) 67GS .930

2) Quick (LAK) 69GS .929

3) Halak (STL) 46GS .926

4) Rinne (NSH) 72GS .923

5) Lehtonen (DAL) 59GS .922

6) Kiprusoff (CAL) 68GS .921

7) Howard (DET) 57GS .920

8) Luongo (VCR) 54GS .919

9) Backstrom (MIN) 45GS .919

10) Niemi (SJS) 68GS .915

11) DUBNYK (EDM) 42GS .914

12) Varlamov (COL) 52GS .913

13) Hiller (ANA) 73GS .910

14) Crawford (CHI) 55GS .903

15) Mason (CBJ) 45GS .894

11th of 15 is not "average"

Interesting that two of the four teams below the Oilers on that list have moved to upgrade their goaltending, Anaheim with Fasth and Columbus with Bobrovsky.

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#39 OilClog
August 26 2012, 04:38PM
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Dubnyk is 11th when the Oilers were 14th.

So if the defense was improved would then not a jump in sv% also happen..

Or maybe if Chicago had Dubnyk..

Seriously DSF do you spend all your time grasping at straws?

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#40 hags9k
August 26 2012, 04:55PM
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I really don't understand the extremely low level of faith the nation has for NK. For a moment put aside his age. It really doesn't matter that he's old as he will be a #2 for the rest of his time here. Put aside the contract which also really isn't hurting us long term, and put aside the legal issues which have no bearing on hockey games.

It was just last season when NK put together the hottest stretch of goaltending by an Oiler goalie since Roli 06. Yep by far. Go back and watch the games from the start of last year. He was white hot.

Sure the wheels came off, but to say there is no chance he can thrive as a #2 this year, as much of the nation is doing, seems sill given what he showed albeit briefly last year. I'm not a Tambo lover but I do think we are good to go in net this year as is.

And let's not forget he will be helping along one of our gifted rookies in more ways than stopping pucks.

GOILERS!

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#41 DSF
August 26 2012, 05:10PM
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OilClog wrote:

Dubnyk is 11th when the Oilers were 14th.

So if the defense was improved would then not a jump in sv% also happen..

Or maybe if Chicago had Dubnyk..

Seriously DSF do you spend all your time grasping at straws?

Do you think the Oilers would be better than 14th if Dubnyk was 1st?

Chicago gave up 1 fewer goal than the Oilers.

Difference is they scored 36 more.

If the Oilers can score the most goals in the WC, Dubnyk won't make much of a difference.

Until then....

Seriously.

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#43 Mumbai Max
August 26 2012, 07:20PM
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Very frustrated that listening to Oilers Nation is no longer a Sunday activity. Certainly not in Bombay. I guess it must be more difficult to post than one imagines. Sigh. Longer sigh.

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#44 Dog Train
August 26 2012, 07:31PM
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It's tough to win without solid goaltending. The jury is still very much out on Dubnyk but I am a fan of Bunz. He seems like a very mature prospect and it's been forever since the Oilers have had a goaltender that can handle the puck.

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#45 longbottom/P.Biglow
August 26 2012, 08:10PM
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DSF wrote:

Do you think the Oilers would be better than 14th if Dubnyk was 1st?

Chicago gave up 1 fewer goal than the Oilers.

Difference is they scored 36 more.

If the Oilers can score the most goals in the WC, Dubnyk won't make much of a difference.

Until then....

Seriously.

Just a quick couple questions DSF? You do realise those numbers you speak of are behind defenses much better than the oilers? Correlation? I think so. When DD was a back-up check his stats playing 1 out every 4 or 5 games, then check his stats when he played the bulk of the games behind the very same defense? Correlation? I think so. A starting goaltender is generally sharper than the back-up in most cases because he forced to stay sharp.

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#46 RexLibris
August 26 2012, 08:14PM
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Lowetide wrote:

DSF: Your posts are impossible to understand.

speeds: At this point, I think Perhonen is the guy to sign, right?

So what you're saying is that if I can understand them I should see a doctor right away?!

As for Perhonen or Tuohimaa, call me a disciple of goalie voodoo, but I figure whichever one the Oilers sign will become Steve Passmore 2.0 while the other will disappear into anonymity only to resurface twenty years later to win a Cup with Boston.

As for Dubnyk, he has been average, on a (well) below-average team. I would hazard to guess that some improvement in the five people on front of him may improve his performance. What I find encouraging about him is that he is more or less consistent. There have been mistakes, but they seem to me to be the ones that young players make, rather than the ones that bad players make.

Please, Devan, don't make me look (more) a fool!

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#47 RexLibris
August 26 2012, 08:18PM
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My hope is that Tambellini would prefer to be rid of Khabibulin at full price this year than to drag out the cost, though perhaps reduced, over several more in a buyout.

It has basically forced Dubnyk to work without the proverbial net (as in trapeze, not goal), but the pain will likely end this year, with luck on the trade deadline day. If I recall correctly, Garth Snow seems to have a fetish for aging goalies. If Tambellini can work the deal out on a poor telephone line maybe he could convince the Isles to send over Mr. Reinhart in compensation.

Hey, it's (still barely) summer and I can dream, right?!

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#48 DSF
August 26 2012, 08:41PM
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longbottom/P.Biglow wrote:

Just a quick couple questions DSF? You do realise those numbers you speak of are behind defenses much better than the oilers? Correlation? I think so. When DD was a back-up check his stats playing 1 out every 4 or 5 games, then check his stats when he played the bulk of the games behind the very same defense? Correlation? I think so. A starting goaltender is generally sharper than the back-up in most cases because he forced to stay sharp.

A sharper goaltender is the starter because he IS sharper.

Dubnyk started 33 games in 10/11...his SV% was .916.

He started 42 games in 11/12...his SV% was .914.

No real difference.

Playing behind a crappy team defense would be more accurately reflected in GAA.

Here's how the WC starters looked:

Quick 1.95

Halak 1.97

Howard 2.13

Smith 2.21

Lehtonen 2.33

Kiprusoff 2.35

Rinne 2.39

Luongo 2.41

Niemi 2.42

Backstrom 2.43

Hiller 2.57

Varlamov 2.59

DUBNYK 2.67

Crawford 2.72

Mason 3.39

Once again, we see Dubnyk near the bottom of the barrel.

Interestingly, Khabibulin, who pretty much everyone agrees is done like dinner, actually had a better GAA than Dubnyk (2.65) while playing behind the same crappy defense.

If Dubnyk is the answer, you have to wonder what the question was.

I expect he is a better option than Khabibulin going forward but not by much.

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#49 The Soup Fascist
August 26 2012, 09:17PM
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Took a quick look at the tenders who played the most games for their respective teams last year.

Out of 30 teams' starters:

12 were drafted by their current team

4 were signed as free agents into the league

14 were drafted by other teams and traded or allowed to sign elsewhere.

So what I am saying in a roundabout way is you are less likely to draft your goalie than trading for him or signing him out of Europe. If you need a starter down the road, history shows you can find him.

Whew! That is much of an "in depth" stats look as I can muster.

PS - Raymond, REALLY?

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#50 DSF
August 26 2012, 09:22PM
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JL wrote:

DSF,

You actually proved our point.

First, you mention that Chicago let in 1 fewer goal than the Oilers. That's great news because their defence is much better then what the Oilers put out last year. Meaning the difference was actually goaltending. So there is a check mark for Dubnyk.

Second, you said GAA is more accurate for team defense. If the Oilers GAA is in between 2.65-2.67(which is a marginal difference), than we would have the third worst team defence in the WC BY YOUR PARAMETERS. Yet Dubnyk is posting the 11th best save%. Meaning he is actually making the oilers better.

Just thought you would like to see that =).

I do agree with you that Khabi should have been replaced by someone who is a more likely bet going into the season. Denis is alright but i don't know how he would hold up if forced into a starting role.

Chicago and Columbus goaltending was atrocious last season based on any parameter.

Oiler goaltending was better...but not by much.

Arguing whether Dubnyk is less mediocre than those goaltenders is pretty much meaningless.

He's a below average goaltender on a crappy defensive team.

Anointing him the starter and paying him for it is just more of the same old, same old.

On many good teams, he'd be in the AHL.

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