HALL AND EBS: THE SKINNER STANDARD

Robin Brownlee
August 08 2012 09:05AM

If Jeff Skinner is worth $34.35 million to the Carolina Hurricanes two years into his NHL entry level contract, what are Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle worth to the Edmonton Oilers?

With Carolina and Skinner, who is represented by agent Bobby Orr, having put the finishing touches on a six-year contract extension that will take him through the 2018-19 season, Hall and Eberle are about to become very wealthy young men. The only question, really, is when that happens.

With a new CBA yet to be negotiated between NHL teams and the NHLPA, should the Oilers put pen to paper with Hall and Eberle two years into their entry level deals and take care of business now, or should they wait? Pay them now or pay them later? How much? Over to you, Steve Tambellini.

Side by side in big boy beds, they're both rich, it's Hall and Ebs.

BY THE NUMBERS

What makes the discussion about Skinner's deal as it relates to Hall and Eberle is the three players are absolute comparables in terms of draft pedigree, age and performance since entering the NHL.

Skinner, 20, drafted seventh overall by Carolina in 2010, has scored 51-56-107 in 146 games, which puts him at .73 PPG. He won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. That's worth $4.350 million to GM Jim Rutherford for 2013-14 and $6 million a season for the rest of the term.

Hall, 20, selected first overall by the Oilers in 2010, has scored 49-46-95 in 126 games with the Oilers, which puts the dynamic left winger at .75 PPG despite considerable time missed in his first two seasons.

Eberle, 22, taken 22nd overall by the Oilers in the 2008 Entry Draft, has the best numbers of the trio. The former Regina Pat is coming off a 76-point season and has tallied 52-67-119 in 147 games, or .81 PPG.

A BIG TICKET

While you can debate the merits of each player on a number of levels and try to predict how their careers will unfold – I happen to believe Eberle will be the best of the bunch in terms of offensive production – there is one certainty and that is the minimum price point for Hall and Eberle was set today.

Might Tambellini already be on the phone with Orr, who also represents Hall, and Eberle's agent looking to do business now? Might we be in for some real news in what's been a decidedly slow several weeks?

Bidding opens at $34.35 million. When it opens is the question.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

Aceb4a1816f5fa09879a023b07d1a9b4
A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.
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#1 djc
August 08 2012, 11:55AM
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DSF wrote:

Skinner has 31G and 20G seasons to his credit.

Gagner's best is 18 and it took him 5 years to do it.

These players are not in the same area code.

If Gagner slept with your girlfriend, the only thing you would complain about is that Wellwood could have done a better job.

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#2 Reg Dunlop
August 08 2012, 11:07AM
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I bet Tambo is already on the phone with Orr, but it's to ask for an autograph not to discuss contracts. MacT will negotiate these deals in 2013 after Steve is canned.

Just spitballing, why sign anyone when the world stops spinning on Dec 21?

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#3 AutoOiler
August 08 2012, 10:02AM
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Pay Ebs in diamonds because he's already golden!!

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#4 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 09:53AM
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...five very scary words Robin...

"Over to you, Steve Tambellini"

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#5 lolhockey
August 08 2012, 10:54AM
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My second guess was going to be Nathan MacKinnon.

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#6 Quicksilver ballet
August 08 2012, 11:03AM
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Eberle should snap that up in a hurry. Hall may be a different matter. We could see him start differ till the last moment, keeping his options open. To have a kid with that much desire to win, is it fair to ask him to burn the first five yrs of his career on a team with zero commitment to winning, or even playing in a playoff game?

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#7 Tyler
August 08 2012, 09:27AM
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Book the pressor today. Two Young Guns Ink Matching Contracts on the Deck of WEM's Pirate Ship - Adoring Fans Look On and Cheer. My guess, 42 million for 7 years.

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#8 loosemoose
August 08 2012, 09:46AM
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That's all fine and dandy for Hall and Ebs, but what happens when Nugent-Hopkins blows their totals right out of the water????

I guess what I'm saying is get them signed now, before the Nuge puts up 60+ and totally blurs the line.

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#9 Ron Burgundy
August 08 2012, 09:10AM
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Can't believe i am the first to post that we need to sign these kids up long-term. Sooner the better.

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#10 freeze
August 08 2012, 09:18AM
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Skinner and Taveres-like deals are probably the best one can hope for in this market. One wonders if Tambo/Lowe/MacT are waiting on the details of the new CBA before signing the duo. There has been rumblings that the owners really want to tone down 2nd contracts. If that works to the Oilers favour or not is another story. But we can trust Tambo to make that call, right?

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#11 Matt Henderson
August 08 2012, 09:18AM
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That's a lot of scratch for Mr. Skinner considering he put up fewer points than Gagner last season (I know, I know, he missed more games).

Locking up Hall and Ebs for another 6 years would be just fine by me though. I guess the only question is whether they wait for the new CBA to see if there will be an increase in the UFA age or any other tweak that might prevent them from spending "Skinner" money.

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#12 Jaw17
August 08 2012, 09:22AM
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If I'm the oilers I wait untill December, just to see if eberle's scoring clip slows down and maybe get a cheaper contract but I bet they both get the same contract and I'd be ok with a 5.7 mil cap hit

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#13 Dawn
August 08 2012, 09:26AM
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Do you think the owners are handing out these splashy new contracts with the full intention of clawing it back before they have to pay out the first year? I don't put that sort of deviousness past them. And that, perhaps, would be why the players appear to have the public sympathy on their side.

>Sorry for diverting to CBA talk

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#14 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
August 08 2012, 09:28AM
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Anywhere between Tavares numbers to 6 million for 5 to 7 years would be excellent.

Get this done Tambillini.

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#15 Guy Lafleur
August 08 2012, 09:29AM
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Get em signed now , if we gotta watch any of these kids walk pack up the team for Seattle now !!

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#16 yawto
August 08 2012, 09:33AM
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Agree with Tyler, 7 years, 42 million each, git r done.

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#17 Spydyr
August 08 2012, 09:36AM
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Any deal that eats up free agent years for any of the fab 4 is a good deal in my mind.Pay them ,make them happy.Then all they have to concern themselves with is "score more goals win games".

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#18 T__Bone88
August 08 2012, 09:42AM
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I would like to see the Hall and Eberle deals in the 36million for 6 years type range. Maybe break down the deal as 5million for the first 3 years and 7million for the last 3 years. The Skinner deal is a good comparable in that they should make about the same as him maybe a little bit more. It would be wise for them to sign now to get somewhat of a pay day because if your third year is not as good as before you end up with a Duchene type deal.

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#19 Thinker
August 08 2012, 09:51AM
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I think the best thing to do is wait on eberle. If he does show a decline(Minor one imo), he can be had for cheaper. I think the club wants to sign the two at the same time, so I'm guessing this gets done in january.

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#20 AutoOiler
August 08 2012, 10:00AM
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Wait until the end of next season.Sit The Fab 5 down and talk matching contracts.let them know they are the core and no One will make more then them. Throw in Stanley cup, scoring title, Connsmythe bonuses. Even 1 million each for the cup would do wonders. Give Yaks parents jobs and all the fab fives family. Watch them stay and win in Edmonton for the next 15 years.

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#21 Matt Henderson
August 08 2012, 10:08AM
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@AutoOiler

Who is #5 of the Fab 5? I've got Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Yak, ???

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#22 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 10:08AM
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Tyler wrote:

Book the pressor today. Two Young Guns Ink Matching Contracts on the Deck of WEM's Pirate Ship - Adoring Fans Look On and Cheer. My guess, 42 million for 7 years.

...then make our GM walk the plank ...

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#23 DSF
August 08 2012, 10:11AM
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Matt Henderson wrote:

That's a lot of scratch for Mr. Skinner considering he put up fewer points than Gagner last season (I know, I know, he missed more games).

Locking up Hall and Ebs for another 6 years would be just fine by me though. I guess the only question is whether they wait for the new CBA to see if there will be an increase in the UFA age or any other tweak that might prevent them from spending "Skinner" money.

Skinner has 31G and 20G seasons to his credit.

Gagner's best is 18 and it took him 5 years to do it.

These players are not in the same area code.

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#24 DSF
August 08 2012, 10:11AM
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Matt Henderson wrote:

That's a lot of scratch for Mr. Skinner considering he put up fewer points than Gagner last season (I know, I know, he missed more games).

Locking up Hall and Ebs for another 6 years would be just fine by me though. I guess the only question is whether they wait for the new CBA to see if there will be an increase in the UFA age or any other tweak that might prevent them from spending "Skinner" money.

Skinner has 31G and 20G seasons to his credit.

Gagner's best is 18 and it took him 5 years to do it.

These players are not in the same area code.

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#25 Tim in Kelowna
August 08 2012, 10:16AM
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Given Tambellini's tendancy to wait until the very last moment to do anything, I would be shocked if he re-signs these guys before next summer.

However, I think inking Hall and Ebs to matching deals (like Kane and Toews) for 6 years at 6 million would be great.

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#26 lolhockey
August 08 2012, 10:19AM
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#5 of the Fab 5 is Omark?

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#27 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
August 08 2012, 10:21AM
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loosemoose wrote:

That's all fine and dandy for Hall and Ebs, but what happens when Nugent-Hopkins blows their totals right out of the water????

I guess what I'm saying is get them signed now, before the Nuge puts up 60+ and totally blurs the line.

If he blows them out of the water then he's earned a superior contract and should be paid accordingly.

That said, how on earth would putting up 60+ blur the line?

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#28 6 ring circus
August 08 2012, 10:25AM
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If we are waiting on Tambellini to make a deal or significant signing,we will be waiting a long time.I don't think he is finished reading his GM manual yet.

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#29 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
August 08 2012, 10:25AM
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Tim in Kelowna wrote:

Given Tambellini's tendancy to wait until the very last moment to do anything, I would be shocked if he re-signs these guys before next summer.

However, I think inking Hall and Ebs to matching deals (like Kane and Toews) for 6 years at 6 million would be great.

No kidding, knowing Tambillini he'll be sitting there dumbfounded next July 2nd when an offer sheet roles in.

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#30 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 10:30AM
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...book the presser to can the 'assessor' finish the presser with the signing of four and fourteen sitting on either side of the New Oiler GM Craig MacTavish...

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#31 vetinari
August 08 2012, 10:32AM
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Given that the NHL is pushing for term limits in the next CBA, wouldn't this be incentive to the players to consider a modest "home town discount" for a long term deal (i.e. 7 years +)? Or maybe Tambi is banking that the GM's will get a longer RFA period in the next contract? This is where I'd love to see a little Philly aggressiveness in Tambi to get 'er done...

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#32 Matt Henderson
August 08 2012, 10:34AM
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@DSF

I agree Skinner>Gagner. Goal scoring is the most valuable skill a hockey player can have, IMO. The point, though, was that his price tag is giving him the benefit of the doubt that his rookie season is his baseline and it ignores the fact that his numbers dipped in year 2.

I dont see any reason why the Hurricanes needed to sign him to the deal this year, especially with favourable changes for the clubs coming ahead in CBA talks.

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#33 K_Mart
August 08 2012, 10:38AM
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Skinner got more than he deserves. Regardless, the market has been set. This is definitely a scenario where ST can't afford to wait. The longer he waits to sign them, the higher the price will be.

Just throw the 5.75 for 7 years at each of them right now. 40.25 mil over 7 years is fair, but if we want to keep this core together without crippling our depth we need these guys to take hometown discounts in exchange for a higher chance at lord stanley.

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#34 Jonathan Willis
August 08 2012, 10:42AM
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@K_Mart

The market has been set for some time; Skinner's deal is directly in accord with previous deals signed by similar players inking similar contracts.

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#35 Jonathan Willis
August 08 2012, 10:46AM
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As for timing, which makes more sense:

A) Lock up Eberle/Hall now, under a $70.3 million cap, with Eberle coming off an incredible season or...

B) Wait until January, and see if Eberle can repeat, how Hall recovers from shoulder surgery, and a new CBA with a (likely) lower cap will be in effect?

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#36 Matt Henderson
August 08 2012, 10:47AM
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@Jonathan Willis

True, but the NHL is about to reset their market yet again. I think it's a curious decision to sign now instead of waiting to see what the next CBA will look like.

That was directed at #30

To #31, I think you have to wait until January for sure.

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#37 Quicksilver ballet
August 08 2012, 10:50AM
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lolhockey wrote:

#5 of the Fab 5 is Omark?

Justin Schultz.

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#38 Jonathan Willis
August 08 2012, 10:54AM
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@Matt Henderson

The real question is whether a roll-back gets included in this new deal or not. There are a number of ways around a roll-back while still reducing the cap (amnesty clause, reinterpreting cap hit w/o reducing $ on pre-2012 deals, a slowly redefined cap which drops as a percentage of HRR over years of the new CBA, etc.) and the one firm line the NHLPA has drawn is their insistence on no roll-back.

If there's no roll-back, signing them now would be a big mistake.

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#39 bmac
August 08 2012, 11:00AM
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@Quicksilver ballet

Theo Peckham

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#40 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 11:11AM
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too funny Reg ...laffin' out loud while props button escaped my view til i caught my breath thanks i needed that

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#41 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 11:17AM
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y'mean those damned Mayans were right all along?

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#42 Dman09
August 08 2012, 11:17AM
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They Should offer all of them 5 mill cap hit for the next 10 years. And Katz can offer them investment opportunities in the downtown complex that is sure to generate more money for them over that time.

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#43 madjam
August 08 2012, 11:29AM
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Hemsky $5M , and the other young elites will get more no doubt . Looking probably at $7M average for Nuge , Hall and Eberle with Yak drawing maybe same range down line . Don't forsee our future being thrown out the window before they have even reached their potentials . Otherwise , this rebuild was/is a complete disaster ! Skinner may be the benchmark , but our boys may see even more than that to retain their services and/or demands .

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#44 pelhem grenville
August 08 2012, 11:35AM
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... madjam where'd u put all the avatars? it's cool the way you made them disappear...can y'do anything 'bout our GM?

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#45 Cody anderson
August 08 2012, 11:36AM
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@DMan 09

I like the number you have used and the term.

I would have no trouble telling the boys they are going to get very rich in their careers and if they want to have the most competive team possible they need to take the amount we will have left over to pay the supporting cast into consideration while negotiating their contracts.

Hell, even tell them you have no doubt that in the long run playing with the talent we have amassed to date and the supporting cast we will continue to develop they will all be worth well over 6. In order to keep the team together long term we want to sign matching 10 yr 5 million per contracts.

Any contract they are willing to sign without being insulted that locks them up for 5+ years between 5 and 6 million each would be a huge win for the Oilers.

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#46 RexLibris
August 08 2012, 11:49AM
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Someone brought up the Colorado example the other day when Pierre Lacroix brought guys like Sakic, Forsberg, Blake and Roy into the dressing room a few months after they had won the Cup and basically told everybody what he'd be offering each player. By appealing to their camaraderie and their chances of success he was able to retain all of his talent.

I'm not sure if any agent today would let that happen, but it might be a good idea for Tambellini, Lowe and MacTavish to get all the guys together and try to negotiate as a group. It would be tricky to manage given that Hugent-Hopkins and Yakupov aren't in the same contract situation yet, but the thought of building something special as a group might have some cache with these players. Especially when it comes from two guys who experienced first-hand what a young talented core can do.

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#47 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
August 08 2012, 11:59AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

As for timing, which makes more sense:

A) Lock up Eberle/Hall now, under a $70.3 million cap, with Eberle coming off an incredible season or...

B) Wait until January, and see if Eberle can repeat, how Hall recovers from shoulder surgery, and a new CBA with a (likely) lower cap will be in effect?

I have no faith in Tambillini.

I'd rather they lock them up now rather then wait and then risk having them out there as offer sheet candidates July 2nd.

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#48 Quicksilver ballet
August 08 2012, 11:59AM
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bmac wrote:

Theo Peckham

Oops, my bad sir :)

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#49 harp
August 08 2012, 12:04PM
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Tambellini is too incompetent to finalize these extensions. It'll be a glorious day when he is canned, lets hope that day comes sooner rather then later.

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#50 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
August 08 2012, 12:11PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

As for timing, which makes more sense:

A) Lock up Eberle/Hall now, under a $70.3 million cap, with Eberle coming off an incredible season or...

B) Wait until January, and see if Eberle can repeat, how Hall recovers from shoulder surgery, and a new CBA with a (likely) lower cap will be in effect?

I have no faith in Tambillini

I'd much rather sign them both now then risk having them available to the league July 2nd 2013.

Also, I'd say the risk of Eberle droping to a 55 point, 4.5 million dollar player is offset by the risk of Hall increasing to a 40/40 6.5 million dollar player.

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