HALL AND EBS: THE SKINNER STANDARD

Robin Brownlee
August 08 2012 09:05AM

If Jeff Skinner is worth $34.35 million to the Carolina Hurricanes two years into his NHL entry level contract, what are Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle worth to the Edmonton Oilers?

With Carolina and Skinner, who is represented by agent Bobby Orr, having put the finishing touches on a six-year contract extension that will take him through the 2018-19 season, Hall and Eberle are about to become very wealthy young men. The only question, really, is when that happens.

With a new CBA yet to be negotiated between NHL teams and the NHLPA, should the Oilers put pen to paper with Hall and Eberle two years into their entry level deals and take care of business now, or should they wait? Pay them now or pay them later? How much? Over to you, Steve Tambellini.

Side by side in big boy beds, they're both rich, it's Hall and Ebs.

BY THE NUMBERS

What makes the discussion about Skinner's deal as it relates to Hall and Eberle is the three players are absolute comparables in terms of draft pedigree, age and performance since entering the NHL.

Skinner, 20, drafted seventh overall by Carolina in 2010, has scored 51-56-107 in 146 games, which puts him at .73 PPG. He won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year. That's worth $4.350 million to GM Jim Rutherford for 2013-14 and $6 million a season for the rest of the term.

Hall, 20, selected first overall by the Oilers in 2010, has scored 49-46-95 in 126 games with the Oilers, which puts the dynamic left winger at .75 PPG despite considerable time missed in his first two seasons.

Eberle, 22, taken 22nd overall by the Oilers in the 2008 Entry Draft, has the best numbers of the trio. The former Regina Pat is coming off a 76-point season and has tallied 52-67-119 in 147 games, or .81 PPG.

A BIG TICKET

While you can debate the merits of each player on a number of levels and try to predict how their careers will unfold – I happen to believe Eberle will be the best of the bunch in terms of offensive production – there is one certainty and that is the minimum price point for Hall and Eberle was set today.

Might Tambellini already be on the phone with Orr, who also represents Hall, and Eberle's agent looking to do business now? Might we be in for some real news in what's been a decidedly slow several weeks?

Bidding opens at $34.35 million. When it opens is the question.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

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A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.
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#51 AutoOiler
August 08 2012, 01:20PM
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@Matt Henderson

J Schultz

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#52 Cody anderson
August 08 2012, 01:25PM
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I am not opposed to signing them now if they would agree to a discounted 5-6 million deal.

That being said there has already been much written of the chance/likelyhood that Eberle's points will go down. Couple that with the fact that Hall is recovering from shoulder surgery and has had to signifigantly alter his off season training, and the up coming CBA changes.

I think it would be prudent to call a meeting and suggest matching contracts of $5 million each for 5-10 years with the preference being the longer term. If they say no then say you want to see the outcome of the CBA talks before negotiating further on the contracts.

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#53 AutoOiler
August 08 2012, 01:27PM
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djc wrote:

If Gagner slept with your girlfriend, the only thing you would complain about is that Wellwood could have done a better job.

Best response EVER lol

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#54 Matt Henderson
August 08 2012, 01:32PM
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AutoOiler wrote:

J Schultz

Ahhhh. I'm going to wait until this season plays itself out before I add him to the list. I would love for him to do enough to be added along side the others.

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#55 CODD_FATHER
August 08 2012, 01:35PM
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Look at all the $$$$$$.Now wheres that towel again.

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#56 madjam
August 08 2012, 02:55PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

... madjam where'd u put all the avatars? it's cool the way you made them disappear...can y'do anything 'bout our GM?

I think he is not in control-just a lame duck GM . Others seem to making the major decisions while he is relagated to those aspects he can do well at ? He seems more like a Vp than a full fledged GM . I could be wrong ,but his position seems limited .

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#57 Pouzar99
August 08 2012, 03:03PM
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As JW wisely notes, signing them now would be a huge gamble on how the CBA turns out, although Oil management has the advantage of knowing far more about how far the owners are willing to bend on these issues and hence how they are likely to turn out.

As things stand some posters seem to be living in lala land. If you do sign Hall and Ebs long-term it should be well into their free agent years, 8 to 10, and anything less than $6.5 million per year average is fantasy. As things stand. Perhaps under a new CBA you can get less, or maybe have to pay more. On the other hand you might be limited to a five year max as well. The NYI were very smart and lucky with the Taveras deal, which is now at least $1 million per year under what they would have to pay him now. Expecting Taveras money for Hall and Eberle now is like expecting Gordie Howe money. Ain't happening.

Waiting for January or until the end of next season is also a gamble of course. The Skinner signing indicates the Canes do not see a changing market coming as the deal is perfectly in line with immediately previous ones.

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#58 AutoOiler
August 08 2012, 04:05PM
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I guess it depends on what motivates these guys. Cash or championships. They could be on the cusp of a dynasty, or islanders west. A couple of these could turn into rick dipietro.

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#59 Dog Train
August 08 2012, 05:44PM
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It would be nice to lock at least one of them in right now. As far as value goes, I would like to see Hall locked up now. I just get the feeling that if he stays healthy, he is in for a big season. I don't think that Eberle's point totals will drop dramatically but I don't see his value going up as much as Hall's could.

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#60 NewfoundlandOil
August 08 2012, 06:45PM
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It's obvious that Hall and Eberle, injuries, singular hot seasons respected, should be signed to this type of deal. In my opinion Eberle and Hall > Skinner (love the kid nothing personal). Its obvious sign these guys. Yep, you can play it prudent, and in business, as in life, that will limit your downside, but will do absolutely nothing for your upside.

We all have this question for management. Where are your balls? With these 1st rounders, do you really believe, or are you still playing around below he belt?

Two choices, and I hope they don't out think themselves, 1) get on with business, believe in this team or 2) be paralized with fear.

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#61 loosemoose
August 08 2012, 06:59PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

If he blows them out of the water then he's earned a superior contract and should be paid accordingly.

That said, how on earth would putting up 60+ blur the line?

Sorry. That meant to be 90.You're right, 60 points wouldn't blur anything.

All I'm saying is it would be nice to have these two locked up already when we have to pay Nugent-Hopkins 7-8 million a year next:)

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