GDB 5.0: IT IS VERY SIMPLE...

Jason Gregor
October 12 2013 11:40AM

Ideally your team would win every game, but since no North American pro team other than the 1972 Miami Dolphins has done that, fans expect their team will lose a few games. There are certain games, however, where you desperately want your team to win. Tonight is one of those for Oilers' fans.

The Oilers don't play the Leafs very often, 90 times in 33 NHL seasons, but they are an easy organization to dislike. They haven't won a Stanley Cup in 46 years; they will extend that to 47 years in June, yet their fanbase acts like they are the darling franchise of the NHL.

My late father's favourite player was Dick Duff, great name, so there was no love for the Maple Leafs in our house. Dad wasn't a diehard Habs fan, but he loathed the Maple Leafs and I'm thankful I inherited the same disdain for the Leafs.

They've had some players I enjoyed watching: Borje Salming, Mike Palmateer, Wendel Clark and Tie Domi to name a few, but when their own captain, Mats Sundin, screws them over like he did it is clear even the players don't respect the organization.

Due to my job, I'm not a fan of the Oilers, but there are certain games where my inner-Edmontonian appears and I watch the game hoping the opposition sucks the hind banana. Tonight is one of those nights.

Oilers fans have endured a lot of losing the last decade, yet you still find the strength to turn on the TV and watch the Blue and Orange. The Oilers are making a rare early appearance on Hockey Night In Canada, and an Oiler victory could turn your evening into a "runaway" very quickly.

For your sake, and the sake of every drinking establishment in Edmonton, I hope it happens.

LINEUP

Hall-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Perron-Arcobello-Hemsky
Smyth/Joensuu-Gordon-Yakupov
Gazdic/Smyth-Acton-Brown

J.Schultz-Ference
Smid-Petry
N.Schultz-Belov

Dubnyk

The Oilers recalled Philip Larsen yesterday and sent Denis Grebeshkov down for a conditioning stint. Larsen is a natural RD, and he could give the Oilers more offence from the back end. He likely won't play tonight, but you will see Ladislav Smid back with Jeff Petry and Anton Belov back on the right side playing with Nick Schultz.

Eakins said if Jesse Joensuu is ready to go, he will play. That likely means Ryan Smyth or Luke Gazdic comes out of the lineup. Smyth scored the only goal last game, so it might be hard to take him out, however, the Oilers claimed Gazdic so when they played a team like Toronto they would have a heavyweight. It wll be interesting to see if Joensuu is ready, who Eakins sits.

***UPDATE*** Yakupov will be a healthy scratch.*** Clearly Eakins is making a statement regarding the 2nd Montreal goal last game.

Dubnyk played better on Thursday, but he'll need to be very good for the Oilers to skate away with a win. Jonathan Bernier has stopped 113 of 116 shots, .974SV%, and many Leafs fans are already writing his Vezina trophy speech. Remember when Nikolai Khabibulin had a .960 SV% at the end of October, 2011. How did that season end?

Bernier has played 3 1/2 games, and he's been stellar, but if the Leafs continue to give up 35 shots a game his numbers will drop significantly.

QUICK HITS....

  • Hall, RNH, Eberle, Perron, Hemsky and Yakupov need to capitalize on their chances. The Leafs are surrendering 34.8 shots per game thus far.
     
  • The Leafs draw a lot of penalties and their PP is red-hot, 28.6%. The Oilers will need to keep their feet moving and not take stick infractions. The Leafs have drawn 15 tripping, hooking, slashing and interference penalties thus far. The Oilers will need to skate with them.
     
  • Kessel leads the Leafs with 6 points in 5 games, and he's 2nd in the NHL in shots with 26. Eakins must avoid having his 4th line out against them.
     
  • The 4th line has to stop icing the puck, or they will see a lot of Kessel's line. It is clear Gadzik has been told to just get the puck out of the zone, but he has to stop icing it, or at the very least take a few extra strides, get to centre and then dump it in. He's iced the puck too often so far.
     
  • Eberle has five goals in four games vs. the Leafs. I sense he or Yakupov will end their goal-scoring drought tonight.
     
  • Previous meetings between these two clubs have no impact on tonight's game, but the Oilers have scored 3 or more goals in their last 5 games in Toronto. Hopefully we see a high-scoring game tonight.
     
  • The Western conference is 18-5-2 vs. the East thus far. Both the Oilers and Leafs are 1-1 in inter-conference play.

LOOKING AHEAD...

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers skate away with a 4-3 victory and silence the Vezina talk of Bernier.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: This is the easy, if Gazdic plays, he and Colton Orr drop the mitts early in the first period. If he sits, then I'll go with the other obvious prediciton; Joffrey Lupul, a former Oiler, scores against his Oilers.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jeff Petry averages a point-per-game against the Leafs. He's only played them twice, but he has a goal and an assist. Petry will actually use his heavy slap shot tonight, and he'll beat Bernier for his 2nd goal of the season.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#251 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
October 12 2013, 08:51PM
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I guess we'll find out just how impatient MacT really is?

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#252 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 08:58PM
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2004Z06 wrote:

I agree completely but Gagner is not going to get you an elite goalie in return.

If it was my job to find a goalie at this point in the season I would look at teams with two good goalies.There are a few out there and try to trade for their second choice in net.A younger goalie with some possible upside.It would cost to much to get the elite goalie at this point in the season.For more then a year now I have been saying the team needs a good young goalie to push Dubnyk.When they brought in LaBarbera it was disappointing.

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#253 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
October 12 2013, 09:30PM
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@gord962

Jose Theodore?

Maybe we could send one of the healthy scratches from the press box tonight, to Philly for Couturier, Rinaldo and Emery. Holmgren has to be getting anxious to do something now that he's sitting right next to the Oilers in the standings.

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#254 DrunkGuyTy
October 12 2013, 09:48PM
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Czar wrote:

Have a drink.

That is soooo funny.

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#255 Kevin
October 12 2013, 10:04PM
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with another lottery pick up coming the OIL will have some serious CAP issues. Lowe and Mac T are likely strategizing on a $40 million long term deal for Yak.

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#256 Harry
October 12 2013, 10:13PM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

How much is anyone willing to give up to get Ryan Miller?

We have more than enough assets to get Miller. Gags, marincin or klef, 1st rnd pic. I dont care if we have to over pay. MAKE IT HAPPEN

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#257 Rob...
October 12 2013, 11:58PM
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Grant Fuhr's goals against average never dipped below 3 while an Oiler. It'd be nice if Oiler scoring surpassed Dubnyk's mistakes so we could gloss it over shut the trolls up.

Poor Ryan Smyth... he must be super pissed that Devin ruined his chance to play hero in an Oilers victory. The guy was counting on the PR boost.

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#258 Smokey
October 12 2013, 12:24PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

I think you misread that... he wants the leafs to be badly outplayed.

Leafs get outplayed every game and win...they rely on containing shots, high shooting percentages, and unworldly goaltending.

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#259 Dog Train
October 12 2013, 12:41PM
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I think this will be a wide open game. Neither team is stellar defensively. Hopefully Dubnyk is up to it and our scorers start to find their scoring touch. I'll say 6-5 Oilers in one of those crazy last score wins type of games.

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#260 Walter Sobchak
October 12 2013, 02:41PM
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DSF wrote:

And are you convinced if a coin flip produces 10 straight heads that the next flip has to be a tail?

Last season, Pittsburgh outshot their opposition by only 0.8 S/G yet managed to win 36 games.

At the same time, NJ outshot their opposition by 5.3 S/G yet only managed 19 wins.

While I agree out shooting your opponent is generally a good idea, there is so much noise involved and so many other factors that are ignored, using shot metrics as a predictor is pretty weak unless you have the common sense to drill down and look at coaching strategy, goaltending quality and a host of other relevant factors.

Otherwise you end up looking like a fool.

If I may ask.

Serious question

If Corsi is counting all shots good and bad, a team could have 20 perimeter shots and say…5 real good quality shots and out shoot the opposition 25 – 20 yet lose like the Oilers have been, yet the other team of those 20 shots 10 of those were actual grade “A” scoring chances would Corsi even be relevant?

I go to the games, I hear Stauffer going on and on about the Oilers Corsi being so good that soon or later the Oilers will start winning, yet I’ve witnessed the other team completely out chance the Oilers?

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#261 Walter Sobchak
October 12 2013, 02:45PM
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@Spydyr

Forget the road trip! I see two games the Oilers MIGHT win given how they have played the rest of the Month!

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#262 jonny94
October 12 2013, 02:58PM
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Hey Gregor,

I normally wouldn't do this and at first I just thought it was a typo but I've noticed you spelled Gazdic incorrectly. Not a big deal but it is Gazdic not Gadzic.

Also if you're not an Oilers fan does that make you a Habs fan seeing as how your dad was growing up?

Cheers!

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#263 Rama Lama
October 12 2013, 03:24PM
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TV6 wrote:

What is wrong with having your Top end talent on the PK..?

RNH is arguably the best Oiler forward at BOTH ends of the rink. How is it a negative thing for him to be playing on the PK..?

Having players who can turn the disc up the ice & make something happen offensively keeps the opposing teams P.P. honest & a little bit back on their heels.

I personally want to see MORE of this from the Bench Boss. Maybe not Hemsky per say, but a lot more of RNH, Hall & Eberle for damn sure.

x6

I love RNH, Ebs, Hall, Yaks.....and would love to see them play all the time but reality bites!

You can't have your best offensive players playing their regular shifts, the PP, and then the PK........and expect them not to be tired. Exactly what was the point of getting Gordon, Jossenu, and others if we are scared to play them?

By your own rationale would it make sense to play Gordon on the PP?

I like the fact that Eakins thinks outside of the box but you cant play your top players 30 minutes a game because you covet fitness and want to test them.

He has been out coached every game so far and the team looks disorganized.......plain and simple!

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#264 ShakyDS
October 12 2013, 03:42PM
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NSOGDP

The Oilers will trail by 3 goals in the third period, coach Eakins will pull Dubnyk with 11minutes to go and put out a sixth skater.

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#265 Tile guy
October 12 2013, 04:25PM
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@dougtheslug

Doogie, Dougie, Dougie, what,s the matter, kook aid glass empty? I propped ya brother.

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#266 Alsker
October 12 2013, 05:08PM
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@dougtheslug

Ok, it is early and the 3rd coach in 3 years(less the asst.s who must be really good to survive 3 coaching changes) so system/development may be understood(in the short term) BUT as for points 5+6, well, obviously we(fans) dont understand how a hockey team works. You fail miserably and claim its rebuild time,you continue to fail so you blame a coach, a coach, a coach, trainers, the guy who washes the floor,etc. and if all goes well the guy paying the bills is way to busy to give a flying f%^k and you still are employed. Hmm, doubt the 40 pounder of Capt.Morgans the kids got for me to enjoy the season is going to last til christmas. Spiked Kool-aid for everyone!!!

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#267 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 05:08PM
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Johe wrote:

Debbie downers.

You watched the games so far this year,right?

I would call it reasonable expectations.

I love the Oilers and cheer for them to win every game.Most times the last few decades they tend to disappoint.This year seems no different.

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#268 Newj
October 12 2013, 05:12PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Yakupov is a healthy scratch. Clearly Eakins is making a statement regarding the 2nd Montreal goal last game.

That's a ballsy move. Not saying it should'nt be done, but bustin' that kid's balls may backfire. Confidence and self worth must be loosing traction on that 19 year old. Lets hope that is the right move.

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#269 Oilcruzer
October 12 2013, 05:13PM
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Remember the last season the Oil started 4 & 0? How did that one go? Oh.

Predicting April spots mid October is a bit ridiculous.

The only stat that matters is GF > GA. It's usually a formula for success.

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#270 k
October 12 2013, 05:14PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Yakupov is a healthy scratch. Clearly Eakins is making a statement regarding the 2nd Montreal goal last game.

I'd like to hear Eakins comments on scratching Yak....

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#271 Oilcruzer
October 12 2013, 05:16PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Yakupov is a healthy scratch. Clearly Eakins is making a statement regarding the 2nd Montreal goal last game.

Really? So with the third goal, then that strategy would bench the Nuge.

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#272 Alsker
October 12 2013, 05:26PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Might as well bench Eberle too for all he was done this year.Bad,bad decision.The kid has to much upside.Give him the experience on the ice.

Difference has been defensive coverage, Yak was the 2nd d-man on the PP when Van got their shorty, and as JG said vs. Montreal. Just hope he will spank the other 1st rounders when they deserve it.

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#273 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 05:28PM
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Alsker wrote:

Difference has been defensive coverage, Yak was the 2nd d-man on the PP when Van got their shorty, and as JG said vs. Montreal. Just hope he will spank the other 1st rounders when they deserve it.

Sure the kid is making mistakes on the ice and I agree 100% with what you said.Now, do you think he is going to learn anything in the press box tonight?

He is being punished not coached.That's on the guy that sat him.

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#274 Thumby
October 12 2013, 05:38PM
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Why didn't Mac t trade Nurse for Schneider after Lou got him out of Van???

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#275 Alsker
October 12 2013, 05:41PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Either does Dubbie.

Good one, lol!!!

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#276 Alsker
October 12 2013, 05:46PM
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The call was worse than the goal, BUT are we ever going to get that save that changes/keeps momentum!!!!!

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#277 otter2233
October 12 2013, 05:49PM
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I realize Eakins wants his star players on the ice more but enough of RNH and Hemsky on the PK. Seems that at least one or both are on the ice when the opposition scores with the man advantage. I would be completely surprised if Yak doesn't have one of his best games as a pro when he gets back in the lineup. Being pissed off seems like it would motivate the kid.

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#278 Oilcruzer
October 12 2013, 06:07PM
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What happened in Vancouver dressing room????

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#279 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 06:17PM
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MessyEH! wrote:

If you look at the Refs real close you can just make out the tops of their one piece leaf onesies.

I'm not seeing that.They just got away with one and had a 5-3 earlier.

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#280 Clyde Frog
October 12 2013, 06:21PM
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Proof how useless faceoffs are as an "offensive" stat?

Our best faceoff percentage in years gave us a terrible start.

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#281 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 06:37PM
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To me the swarm looks like a fire-drill.

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#282 MessyEH!
October 12 2013, 06:37PM
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I may be Acton crazy. Just a little.

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#283 Spydyr
October 12 2013, 06:59PM
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Oilersfan4 wrote:

I don't no if it's just me but I haven't really noticed Eberle all season yet. I guess it's only 5 games in. Is that a little concerning or not. I don't know. But well the real JORDAN EBERLE please stand up.

Amen.

I sure hope he is not one of those guys that cash in with the big contract and lose the eye of the tiger.Ebs never struck me as that guy but like you mentioned it is early..

I'm hoping he is just having a tough go right now.

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#284 Zamboni Driver
October 12 2013, 07:35PM
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Btw...who is the Dude in between the "braintrust" in the pressbox they keep showing.

Maybe I should know, but I don't.

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#285 Zamboni Driver
October 12 2013, 07:43PM
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S H O C K E R

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#286 I tried it at home
October 12 2013, 07:54PM
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OilClog wrote:

What was Dubnyk doing this summer.. Brutal.

Barley based beverages?

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#287 Czar
October 12 2013, 08:20PM
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DSF wrote:

Yes.

Thanks.

Dumba had a good night. Rebels will miss him if he sticks.

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#288 Trolololo
October 12 2013, 08:36PM
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Looks familiar doesn't it? COLORADO C 5 5 0 0 10 5 18 4 +14 2-0-0 3-0-0 - 5-0-0 WON 5 2 SAN JOSE P 4 4 0 0 8 4 21 5 +16 3-0-0 1-0-0 - 4-0-0 WON 4 3 CALGARY P 5 3 0 2 8 3 18 17 +1 2-0-1 1-0-1 0-1 3-0-2 WON 2 4 ST. LOUIS C 3 3 0 0 6 3 14 4 +10 3-0-0 0-0-0 - 3-0-0 WON 3 5 ANAHEIM P 4 3 1 0 6 3 14 11 +3 1-0-0 2-1-0 - 3-1-0 WON 3 6 VANCOUVER P 5 3 2 0 6 3 16 16 E 2-1-0 1-1-0 - 3-2-0 LOST 1 7 PHOENIX P 5 3 2 0 6 3 12 14 -2 1-0-0 2-2-0 - 3-2-0 WON 2 8 LOS ANGELES P 5 3 2 0 6 1 13 14 -1 1-1-0 2-1-0 2-0 3-2-0 WON 2 9 CHICAGO C 4 2 1 1 5 2 13 12 +1 2-0-1 0-1-0 0-1 2-1-1 WON 1 10 DALLAS C 3 2 1 0 4 2 8 6 +2 1-1-0 1-0-0 - 2-1-0 WON 2 11 MINNESOTA C 4 1 1 2 4 1 9 11 -2 1-0-2 0-1-0 0-1 1-1-2 WON 1 12 WINNIPEG C 5 2 3 0 4 2 14 16 -2 1-2-0 1-1-0 - 2-3-0 LOST 3 13 EDMONTON P 5 1 3 1 3 0 17 25 -8 1-2-0 0-1-1 1-0 1-3-1 OT 1 14 NASHVILLE C 4 1 3 0 2 1 6 13 -7 1-1-0 0-2-0 - 1-3-0 LOST

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#289 Jakethesnakesnake
October 12 2013, 09:48PM
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We need mike Morrison back. He's better then this garbage goalie. Another loose thanks to the goalie

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#290 Alsker
October 12 2013, 09:59PM
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Keyser Soze wrote:

Married a pretty Calgarian.... there are a few.

Congrats, and yes there are more than a few, was born and raised to loathe Cowtown. Been more than half a century now, hard to break old habits.

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#291 Alsker
October 12 2013, 10:31PM
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At least the Cansucks are losing. Seeing those old jerseys vs. leHabs reminds me of being a kid when Van joined the NHL, they couldnt help but lose 7-1 every time, lol..

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#292 Alsker
October 13 2013, 12:08AM
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Rob... wrote:

Grant Fuhr's goals against average never dipped below 3 while an Oiler. It'd be nice if Oiler scoring surpassed Dubnyk's mistakes so we could gloss it over shut the trolls up.

Poor Ryan Smyth... he must be super pissed that Devin ruined his chance to play hero in an Oilers victory. The guy was counting on the PR boost.

Maybe Smitty's play is 'cause he's reliving '06. Not only in his mind but on the ice as well. Wonder how many times he asks MacT when hes going to trade for Rollie???

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#293 otter2233
October 13 2013, 02:57AM
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@Alsker

No dispute Dubnyk has been terrible but does that mean the skaters mean nothing too?

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#294 michael
October 13 2013, 07:39AM
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Spydyr wrote:

They can only play four centres .Please enlighten me with your four.

Mine are:

1)RNH

2)Gagner

3)Gordon

4)As the team stated today Acton.

RNH-Hall and Yak

Arco-eberle-Perron

gagner- hemsky-jonnesuu

Gordon-brown-smyth

acton gadzic.

options are going to be many. arco is playing really well. you send him down. you would give away goals and assists in exchange for face off wins?

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#295 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
October 13 2013, 09:30AM
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Alsker wrote:

No sh*t, hard to imagine which side is more disappointed. 8 years into Dubby made me wonder who the last goalie we developed was. Moog/Fuhr were drafted by us, B. Ranford, Cujo, Rollie, Salo were all traded for, JDD was a bust. Is there a theme here? Raanta, Miller, Bryz(scary if you ask me), who would you seriously persue?

There's a number of guys UFA eligible next summer. Hiller, Halak, Elliot, all more affordable options i'h have to think. Those guys could be had now for a smaller price i'm sure.

At this point, try and make a deal for any one of them. If it's Ryan Miller, they need to get a 5 yr extension done. Maybe the attitude thing has to do with him needing a fresh start elsewhere.

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#296 Oilcruzer
October 13 2013, 09:38AM
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Alsker wrote:

No sh*t, hard to imagine which side is more disappointed. 8 years into Dubby made me wonder who the last goalie we developed was. Moog/Fuhr were drafted by us, B. Ranford, Cujo, Rollie, Salo were all traded for, JDD was a bust. Is there a theme here? Raanta, Miller, Bryz(scary if you ask me), who would you seriously persue?

You look at every team's backup. That's how Roly finally got his shot.

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#297 2004Z06
October 13 2013, 10:46AM
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John wrote:

It was crazy to sit Yaks! He's leading the team in chances during even strength minutes (4.8 chances/15 ES minutes) Maybe Eakins should be in the press box for the next game!

Yakupov's jersey will say Pilsbury on the back when he returns from the press box. What games are you watching? He is not embracing the team concept, playing one on four and then turning the puck over is what got his ass in the box. not his offensive prowess. He has to learn to play more responsibly.

J. Schultz will be next. He needs to learn when it is ok to pinch and when not to.

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#298 tileguy
October 12 2013, 11:52AM
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Jason, can you refresh our memory on the Sundin story?

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#299 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
October 12 2013, 12:20PM
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When's puck drop?

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#300 Romulus' Apotheosis
October 12 2013, 12:29PM
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Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

I could be way out to lunch here, but you may have misread his comment too. Team 1260 was bought by TSN, buddy was making a joke.

I think anyway. You crazy kids and your rap music and Pac Man video games

a ha!

flew right over my head... good shot tile!

(though, I see now JG is calling bs on the premise... I don't care, still a solid shot)

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