This is the perfect time to panic!

Jonathan Willis
October 12 2013 10:59PM

Devan Dubnyk has played four games for the Oilers this season. He has four losses and a 0.829 save percentage; he's probably directly cost Edmonton two wins and three points with his poor play.

What can the Oilers do about it?

Option 1: Stay The Course

The argument: Devan Dubnyk has been successful in Edmonton's net for three years now. Throwing that away over a lousy four-game stretch would be crazy. Goalies have bad runs sometimes. It's hard, but the best bet is to just ride this out rather than wasting assets bringing in a guy who isn't likely to be any better than Dubnyk is long-term.

Option 2: Jason LaBarbera

The argument: Sure, Jason LaBarbera didn't look very good in his first game for Edmonton. But he's been a darn good backup for five years now. Putting him in net gives Dubnyk a break, gives LaBarbera a chance to show whether he can handle the job, and costs nothing in terms of assets. The Oilers' play seems to have improved quite a bit; if LaBarbera can be average (and history suggests he can) that should be good enough.

Option 3: Ilya Bryzgalov

The argument: Sure, he didn't work out in Philadelphia, but this is a guy who was a Vezina candidate not that long ago. Signing in the ECHL shows he wants a North American job, and he should have plenty of motivation to prove he can still handle NHL minutes. If he can be anywhere near where he was a few years back, the Oilers will be smiling.

Option 4: The Big Trade

The argument: Edmonton's goaltending sin't good enough. Devan Dubnyk lets in soft goals and can't handle pressure; LaBarbera is a career backup. The team needs wins now, which means bringing in a new starter. Call him James Reimer, or Viktor Fasth or Ryan Miller, or whoever. The cost will be dear - nobody is giving these guys away and Edmonton's in a terrible position - but this team needs wins now and that means making a trade right now.

My Take

 

The decision was made in the summer. Maybe it was the wrong decision, but a) four games isn't enough evidence to overturn it and b) the cost of trying to overturn it is going to be very, very high. I'd be tempted to go with Jason LaBarbera against Washington, to give Dubnyk a game off and see what the backup can do; if LaBarbera plays well he stays in until he doesn't and if he plays poorly Dubnyk gets another shot. The history of both these players says they're a good enough tandem to provide NHL-average goaltending; clearly the Oilers felt at least that was possible when they made the choice this summer and there hasn't been enough evidence to overturn that decision, yet.

That's a hard decision to make; given the pressures on the team this season it's extremely difficult to see the goaltending almost single-handedly losing games. But the alternatives are either unlikely to be a good fit (Bryzgalov) or likely to be cost-prohibitive if there's any other way out. 

But it wouldn't hurt to get a feel for the goaltending market, either.

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#3 T
October 12 2013, 11:05PM
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Bring in golie cause I'm drunk and want a good golie

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#5 Johe
October 13 2013, 12:05AM
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@Jonathan Willis

If you keep feeding the troll, he'll keep saying stupid things. I know you know that, but...

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#6 Zamboni Driver
October 12 2013, 11:36PM
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I'm also profoundly disappointed anyone 'trashed' the loaded guy who wants a good golie.

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#7 Chaz
October 13 2013, 08:45AM
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So we shouldn't judge DD based On a small sample size? The difference between 8th and 9th at the end of the year is usually a point or two max. Seeing that he's already blown 4 points on his own, I say I'm allowed to judge. He's let in softies his whole career. I don't care what the save % indicates, the guy is not a good goalie. Soft goals destroy confidence which young teams need. DD is a bust. Act now Mac T

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#9 toprightcorner
October 12 2013, 11:06PM
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2 soft goals in last minute of game to threaten a win to go to overtime.

He is guessing, not controlling and he is moving in the wrong direction if he guesses wrong.

Viktor Fasth nuff said

Stay away from Miller, bad character and stirs up the locker room, he's a virus!

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#10 Sloppy Joe
October 13 2013, 12:36AM
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I feel for you JW. This thread went 'full retard' pretty quickly.

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#11 Coco crisp
October 13 2013, 04:05AM
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@DSF

You are the most annoying reader on this website. You suck.

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#12 TM8Trent
October 12 2013, 11:17PM
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I would play Labarbera until he costs the Oilers the game. Dubnyk is the sole reason the Oilers are not 3-2 right now.

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#14 Big Cap
October 13 2013, 02:36AM
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My new favorite buzz word: SAMPLE SIZE

"It’s to early to judge Dubnyk; as his SAMPLE SIZE has only been 4 games this year"

My question is, when can we make a judgment? We have invested ALOT of time and energy with this guy. There is NO way we need to wait until mid season or beyond to make a conclusion as we sit through another disastrous season.

The fact is, he's been average at best his entire Oiler career. We desperately need an upgrade. Dunnyk will NEVER lead us to the promise land.

WE MUST MOVE ON!!!!!!

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#15 DSF
October 12 2013, 11:21PM
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Didn't you recently reassure us that Dubnyk is an average NHL goaltender who was good enough to carry the Oilers into the playoffs.

Do you still think so?

If so, why did you write this post?

Mea Culpa.

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#16 chuckcouples
October 13 2013, 01:23AM
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Who's errors have cost the Oilers more goals against this season, Devan Dubnyk or Taylor Hall? Watch the 5th Leafs goal again...who gives the puck away to set up the shot by Lupul? Hall tries a between the legs, no look pass to the middle of the ice with a 1 goal lead in the last 40 seconds of a hockey game.

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#17 teddydubbs
October 12 2013, 11:12PM
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Stay the course. I'm not buying any of this 'he's lost it and won't regain it' talk. WHEN he gets it together he'll be better for it and we will have spent 0 assets to get an NHL starter back.

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#18 Garon
October 13 2013, 02:49AM
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I don't see how Dubnyk deserves the benefit of the doubt any longer. That's two games he's cost us.

Two games.

Directly cost us.

His fault.

We would have won without him.

Don't know how more clear I can be on this. These aren't "poor performances". They're disasters, to the point where you've got to wonder where the hell his head is at.

It's inexcusable from an NHL goalie being paid $$$ millions of dollars. A piss poor effort. I wouldn't blame MacT if he sent him up to the press box for a month and called up Richard Bachman. Stupid move? Maybe, but no more stupid than allowing DD to continue self destructing and losing us games. AHL-calibre or not, Bachman literally could not be any worse at this point.

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#19 Jofa
October 13 2013, 09:10AM
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"The decision was made in the summer" ... Was it?

By all accounts, MacT was trying to upgrade goaltending with guys like Schneider or Bernier. If anything, this would indicate the "decision" made this summer was that Dubnyk was not MacTavish's preferred starter and that the team needs to upgrade at this position. The fact that Dubnyk is still here is less about a decision being made that the organization believes he's their #1 guy and more a result of upgrade attempts via trade or signing being unsuccessful to date.

Knowing that MacT saw goaltending as a weakness and was looking to upgrade at the position, I suspect he is going to be actively looking for a deal in order to try to keep his first season at the helm from derailing. The asking price will be dear, but so too is having a team (and fan base) lose confidence in its goaltending. Dubnyk had a window to convince the organization that he can be their guy, but I can't imagine the new coach or GM are impressed with what they've seen to date. Yes it's early to draw conclusions, but this is also supposed to be the year this franchise takes a big step forward, and a quick (yes BOLD) step may be needed before the oil dig themselves into too big of a hole.

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#20 T
October 12 2013, 11:05PM
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Bring in golie cause I'm drunk and want a good golie

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#21 Zamboni Driver
October 12 2013, 11:25PM
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I disagree with every bit of this, ESPECIALLY the part about not playing him next game.

And I'm one who thinks Dubnyk is a borderline backup on 25 (at least) teams in the NHL.

IF you have decided this guy is your #1 you need to go back to him.

And God help us all.

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#22 TDSM31
October 13 2013, 12:27AM
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Jmang wrote:

I personally would give dub another shot. If that doesnt work. Send labarbra down (assuming he doesnt get claimed) give bachman a few starts abd a chance to prove himself again. If its horrendous sign bryz to a 1 year contract worth 1 mill to compete with dub. Send bachman back down. Run with those 2. If neither get it done. Then its big trade time.

I personally wish we picked up khudobin. Whats he make? 1 mill? but No mac t was too busy looking for face punchers. When gange is back if he doesnt play wing. I could see 4 goo lines. A third and forth line consisting or gordon arcobello yak smyth joenssu and gazdic.

If Dubnyk sucks again next game send LaBarbera down??? Holy sh*t I AM in the Twilight Zone.

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#23 mlcsellil
October 12 2013, 11:40PM
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The jury that was out on Dubnyk has returned. He is not the goalie we need. The panic button is pushed. The coach looked disgusted at the soft goals that went in. The GM looked the same and I think most of the fans are concerned about the goaltending or lack thereof. I know something drastic needs to happen, but there is no way I want to trade one of our valuable players for a legit goalie, and there is no way I want the Oil to be picking early in the draft again. Hopefully DD can find his confidence again and soon.

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#25 Gret99zky
October 12 2013, 11:57PM
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New wife, check.

New child, check.

New GM has no faith in him, check.

DD has a lot on his plate.

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#26 Oilers Coffey
October 13 2013, 12:07AM
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TERRIBLE GOALTENDING! You can't argue against that, Dubnyk has never had the ability to make the key key save in a game.

How many times in his tenure did we lose third period leads?

How many times were the Oilers never able to break the first goal funk from a weak first goal against when there was tons of momentum going in the Oilers favor?

Has Dubnyk ever been a real winner? Like championship winner???

NEVER

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#27 Slats
October 13 2013, 08:31AM
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DSF wrote:

Hemsky is currently 96th in league scoring and is -6.

Sure wouldn't want to mess with that mojo.

And to further that logic some more @ 96th just nipping out Kunitz, J. Benn , Perry and Kopitar ....

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#28 Oilcruzer
October 13 2013, 09:46AM
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If you want the team to confidently turn up the offense, they need to know their goalie will make the important saves.

Many here have said they would rather watch the Oil lose 6-5 while flying high. None wants that loss to be a result of continual substandard play by the goaltender.

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#29 Czar
October 13 2013, 10:09AM
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paqtwinn wrote:

Seeing lots of "sample size" excuses....Dubnyk has let in the bad goal for his whole career. His "whole career" is a pretty decent sample size.

Seeing lots of "hung out to dry" excuses....No one expects him to stop the 3 on 1 but the Kadri goal and Lupuls 2nd are plays you can pick out of dozens of his starts.

Time to move onwards and upwards with our goaltending needs.

I watched the kid do the same thing in Kamloops, lets in a soft goal most nights and drops to his knees quicker than DSF in a mens locker room.

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#30 BleedingOil
October 13 2013, 06:55AM
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Goal 1) How can one of the tallest goalies in the league leave a hole above his shoulder short side? Goal 2) How did the leaf attacker skate by our new captain 5 feet in front of the net and not end up on his feet Goal 3) Why are both defenders chasing puck in corner leaving the trailing winger wide open and where was our back checking from our RW on the play? When Lupul let go, all 5 of our players were on the wrong side of the play. All of them. Goal 4) 4 of our 5 players could have reached out and touched each other and none were deeper than the hash marks. When Kessel dumped the puck behind our net, why did Ference glide through the circle and not skate hard for the net, and why was JVR all alone in Gretzkys office? DD totally lost sight of puck on this one as well. The guy is 10 feet tall and can touch both posts while in butterfly so he should not be moving side to side the way he does. Goal 5) Belov and Ference are both in the shooting lane and provide a nice screen for the shooter. Give DD clear sight or block the shot. Get out of the way if you cant get in the way. Goal 6) OT Goal. Should have been a penalty call. 3 on 1. We were in way to deep on this one for not having clear possession of the puck. Sad to see that our "Stud" dman was the deepest. You can actually see him turn and break in on the right side while Nuge is being raped. This causes him to be way too deep by the time Nuge is recovering. On his back check, he is blue line to blue line away from the play. By the time he gets to his own blue line, he stops skating. The sad part is that by the time Raymond gets the rebound, Schultz is within stick reach of the play. 2 or 3 more hard strides and he may have made up for the mistake he made pinching in too deep seconds earlier.

I know its easy to pick out mistakes on the ice from my googlebox and comfy couch, but you can clearly see the 2 holes of Big Tough Defender and Game Changing Goalies are slapping us in tha face every night. Play your position Dmen and that will solve most inadequacy in goal. If your forwards are scoring 5 goals in a game, they are doing their job. Time for the defensive part of our game to come up to par. I am not slamming just our Dcorps, but all 5 players on ice play more positionally sound without the puck. It just needs to happen from our back end out. Dubey, stand up and make yourself BIG! Dont go down on your knees as soon as the puck comes in our zone. You are way to big of a man to play a flop and drop game like TT, Miller or Brodeur....it just wont work. Schultz, if you wanna be a winger, then go buy Eakins a low fat latte, fruit cup and sit down and have a chat. Ference, start showing an attitude and nobody gets past the hash marks and stays on two feet. Top 6, keep doing what you are doing, whatever line combinations Eakins has you on. Bottom 6, HIT MORE...our end, open ice, deep in other end, HIT HIT HIT. Get that puck back.

I see changes coming fast. MacT and Eakins have too much pride and glory to swallow these stupid losses. Someone is going soon. Why was Yak sitting last night? HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM

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#31 DSF
October 12 2013, 11:29PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

If only I'd answered that question within the post.

Wait, what's this I read?

The history of both these players says they're a good enough tandem to provide NHL-average goaltending; clearly the Oilers felt at least that was possible when they made the choice this summer and there hasn't been enough evidence to overturn that decision, yet.

Huh.

As for your other question: it doesn't take much listening to know that my view - the same view I expressed in my last post on the subject - isn't shared by many fans. I wrote this post to try and get a feel for which direction fans want to see the team go.

It's certainly possible my evaluation of Dubnyk is wrong; time will tell on that. But this post is entirely consistent with my previously stated views.

Also: condolences on the retirement of Kyle Wellwood.

When both your major premise and your minor premise are wrong, your conclusions doesn't have a hope in hell of being correct.

Perhaps Kyle Wellwood could strap on the pads.

He likely wouldn't be much worse.

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#32 Smokey
October 13 2013, 08:38AM
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Renslip wrote:

I'm not really sure how many of these comments are trolls, but a few people here really need to get some perspective!

As to Dubnyk, he's not awesome but no goalie is going to win many games in Edmonton until we see a bit of team defence. There are to many players worrying about their next breakout play before they worry about getting possession.

TO was mostly in check last night. There were a high powered counter offence that played in their own end half the night and still managed 6 goals. 3 of the goals let in were aweful. The Oilers played a good game, Dubby was bad. Defence was ok, not great. But the swiss cheese argument can't be used last night. Devon was just that bad.

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#33 Jmang
October 12 2013, 11:33PM
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We cant afford to risk our first. The way this is going that clould be a nathan makinnon

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#34 TDSM31
October 12 2013, 11:38PM
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Thanks for the levity JW, I actually laughed out loud when I read, "I'd be tempted to go with Jason LaBarbera.."

Really???..you'd have to be tempted?

Sometimes I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone reading posts on Dubnyk. For the gazillianth time, HE'S NOT A NO.1 CALIBER GOALIE AND DOES NOT HAVE THE TALENT TO EVER BE ONE.

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#35 Zamboni Driver
October 12 2013, 11:42PM
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I've also often wondered why we never see permission from the bloggers and writers out there that it is now OFFICIALLY okay to panic.

You'd think it would have come up once or twice in:

30th, 30th, 29th, 26th

Can't think of a time though.

Instead everyone is just a litttttttttttle smarter than the dull masses.

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#36 **
October 13 2013, 12:35AM
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I disagree that Dubnky has been successful here the past three years. If I am not mistaken he has never been above .500 in wins/losses.

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#37 Mr. Calm
October 13 2013, 02:00AM
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I might also add, that thiss eastern conference bias for the start of the season couldn't possibly have been a better situation for the oil. It allows them a lot of games to sort out their problems, while not giving the points to conference and divisional opponents.

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#38 Renslip
October 13 2013, 08:29AM
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I'm not really sure how many of these comments are trolls, but a few people here really need to get some perspective!

As to Dubnyk, he's not awesome but no goalie is going to win many games in Edmonton until we see a bit of team defence. There are to many players worrying about their next breakout play before they worry about getting possession.

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#39 derek
October 13 2013, 09:23AM
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Even below average goalies steal games, even the flames joey McDonald @ .898 sv pct

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#40 Serious Gord
October 12 2013, 11:36PM
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Dubnyk has NOT "been successful in Edmonton's net for three years now. "

Several fans and experts have disagreed with the "look at his save %age" argument and now it seems the soft goal chickens have come home to roost.

For MacT betting on dubnyk was the safest - least disruptive - least bold path. Sure, he tried to land a better option, but he hardly pulled out all the stops. He didn't trade gagner; he didn't buy out hemsky; he didn't take a bit of a flyer on Bryz or Thomas. He managed - as did a lot of others - to convince himself that dubnyk was enough.

Four games in that looks to be a bad bet gone completely bad.

Dubnyk could pull out of this tailspin yet but at the very least MacT needs to be firming up options. It would be inexcusable if he left it until the team is five or more points out of the playoffs on November 1. (Right now they are three points out after playing just five games)

Presumably labarbera is in against the capitals who are playing as bad or worse than the oil. They need a REAL regulation win NOW

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#41 Cold Hard Truth
October 13 2013, 12:07AM
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Jonathan,

Do your stats hold you at night and tell you they love you?

On a side note, we are probably one of the few teams who assumes no trade can be made without being ripped off. Probably years of poor management at work.

I would love to see the oilers win, but a part of me wants them to lose miserably so maybe, just maybe, Lowe & co. are given the boot. Call it blood lust.

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#42 big zeek
October 13 2013, 09:15AM
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The point of all of this, the oilers did not get the saves when they needed them. The kadri goalshouldnt of happened period. Teams capitalize on mistakes and its the goalies job to take away those chances half the time! Dubnyk did it none of the time.

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#43 Butters
October 12 2013, 11:39PM
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Dubnyk will NOT be an 0.829 goaltender for the remainder of the year. The Oilers have lost to one divisional opponent. With average goaltending they would have curb stomped the Leafs. Not time to panic yet.

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#44 Sidney Frosby
October 13 2013, 12:26AM
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Butters wrote:

Dubnyk will NOT be an 0.829 goaltender for the remainder of the year. The Oilers have lost to one divisional opponent. With average goaltending they would have curb stomped the Leafs. Not time to panic yet.

He won't be a 0.829 goaltender.... Even if he gets to 0.915... He started horribly and as last year....will be letting in the soft goal in the third period every other night....

Imagine we had a goalie like Cujo or Kipper,... A goalie who makes saves... Especially when needed.

Anyone got Jeff deluariies number?

By the time " the boys on the bus" figure this one out ( game 20ish I am guessing) we'll be 6-11-3 with nearly 100 goals against.

I am betting Washington ( and Grabovski for that matter) get at least 4 against us ,.. Meaning we'll have to score 5 to win

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#45 The Oilers Shot Clock
October 13 2013, 12:39AM
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Send him to OKC. Let him clear waivers. Tell him he can rediscover his game at the expense of their record. If he doesnt clear, no problem, we use that money on something new and shiny.

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#46 Mr. Calm
October 13 2013, 02:46AM
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Oiler fans are a funny bunch. Always comparing current players to players from the golden years, and longing to see that offensive flair, but unwilling to accept that offensive flair has a price. This team is offensive. it is built to attack. I think Dubnyk needs to have a little chat with Fuhr, at least fuhr can tell him to relax and just stop the puck as often as he can and expect to be hung out to dry alot. Dubnyk just needs to learn to make the one big save each game. Thats all bernier did tonight. And he let in 5.

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#47 Big Cap
October 13 2013, 03:06AM
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Mr. Calm wrote:

TWO GAMES!!! Holy Crap! 2 Games Everybody! Ignore the fact that he had no defense in either game! They were both completely and unequivically his fault!

Get a reality check. He is an average goalie playing poorly. Behind a defence that is playing... or at least doing something... somewhere on the ice i think...

I agree with a few posts up. 15 games. by then other teams know their weaknesses as well and you can make a trade that actually makes sense, or Devon shows up and proves you wrong.

15 games from now?? At this pace of our Goaltending status, we wont have to worry about the Oilers even contending for a playoff spot as we will be history!

The Oilers defence has been average in front of Dubnyk this season, but the Offence and goals for have been way above average.

How many years does this DD get to prove himself? 4 games into it this year, is just another SAMPLE SIZE of his entire Oiler career.

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#48 paqtwinn
October 13 2013, 09:26AM
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Seeing lots of "sample size" excuses....Dubnyk has let in the bad goal for his whole career. His "whole career" is a pretty decent sample size.

Seeing lots of "hung out to dry" excuses....No one expects him to stop the 3 on 1 but the Kadri goal and Lupuls 2nd are plays you can pick out of dozens of his starts.

Time to move onwards and upwards with our goaltending needs.

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#49 Ron Burgundy
October 13 2013, 09:53AM
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Meanwhile:

16-5, 1.98, 0.934

60-70, 2.84, .908

I'm not an NHL scout, but the 2nd set suggests guaranteed mediocrity, vs. some very intriguing potential in the first set.

The first set is Anton Khudobin's career numbers. The second set is Jason Labarbera's career statline. Khudobin was signed for $800,000, 200k less than Labarbera, and was signed after Labarbera meaning he was available at the time.

I thought MacT did all he could in the summer except in respect of the nets, where Khudobin, Thomas Greiss, Tim Thomas and other quality talent was available. Instead, we got Dubnyk's workout buddy, who I'm sure is a very nice guy but was not and is not the answer. Now we the fans get yet another year of head-exploding frustration...

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#50 shaner
October 12 2013, 11:03PM
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I say try Bryz, he's obviously motivated (it definitely isn't for the money). Honestly can't be worse than Dub. Plus you can probably send down labarbra without any team putting in a claim on the fringe nhler

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