October 12 2013 10:22AM
The 2010 Entry Draft is struggling. Once heralded by many (well, me) as a possible Oilers watershed, the 2010 edition of "Dollar Sign on the Muscle" has given the Oilers 1 NHL player. How about the rest of the league?
There were 210 players chosen in the 2010 entry draft, 44 of those have played at least one NHL game. That's 21% success rate after 3 seasons have elapsed, and the average for each player is 46, 8-11-19. Here are the 2010 draftees who are above 100 NHL games so far:
- Tyler Seguin 206, 58-68-126
- Cam Fowler 199, 16-65-81
- Alexander Burmistrov 194, 23-35-58
- Jeff Skinner 193, 65-72-137
- Taylor Hall 175, 66-82-148
- Ryan Johansen 110, 14-20-34
- Justin Faulk 109, 13-28-41
- Erik Gudbranson 109, 2-10-12
That doesn't strike me as a terrifying list so far, although Hall, Seguin, Skinner and Falk are top drawer young NHL players. How does the 2010 Entry draft compare to recent seasons?
PLAYERS DRAFTED WHO HAVE PLAYED AT LEAST ONE NHL GAME
- 2007: 89 players, averaging 101 NHL GP
- 2008: 96 players, averaging 87 NHL GP
- 2009: 79 players, averaging 66 NHL GP
- 2010: 44 players, averaging 46 NHL GP
- 2011: 27 players, averaging 35 NHL GP
Among the 2009 picks, only Jamie Devane and Michael Latta have made their NHL debut this year, meaning that 77 picks from 2009 played in the NHL during the period 09-10 through 12-13. The 2010 draft is flagging, especially considering that Michael Bournival, Joakim Nordstrom and Jesper Fest have debuted this season and are included in the totals above. It's a long way from being decided, but by eye the 2007 and 2010 drafts seem to be subpar using this metric.
IS OUR CHILDREN LEARNING?
Oilers 2010 draft:
- #1 Taylor Hall: Home run.
- #31 Tyler Pitlick: No NHL games yet, some spark of promise late last season married to a strong camp and first Oklahoma weekend have us hopeful but not blind. A long way to go.
- #46 Martin Marincin: On track as a legit NHL prospect, he should be considered good value for the price and I suspect we'll see him in the NHL this or early next year.
- #48 Curtis Hamilton: Injuries have derailed his career and time is running out. This season will be a strong test for him, opportunity is there but results matter.
- #61 Ryan Martindale: Played well in weekend one (source: Eric Rodgers, Tend the Farm) and like Pitlick there's a little more buzz than one year ago.
- #91 Jeremie Blain: Oilers did not sign him, he's played in the ECHL and AHL since turning pro.
- #121 Tyler Bunz: Chaotic first year pro in 2012-13, he'll need to be much better to get back on track.
- #162 Brandon Davidson: The big surprise from the bottom of the draft, Davidson got a recall before any on the list but Hall. Still some distance to go, but the organization likes him and he's progressing.
- #166 Drew Czerwonka: Lost any hope of a pro career to injuries.
- #181 Kristians Pelss: A sad story we're still recovering from.
- #202 Kellen Jones: Continuing his NCAA career, we don't hear much about him.
From the group outside the NHL, I would put Marincin in a group of very promising players yet to play in the NHL (this would include names like Jack Campbell, Brandon Gormley, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Derek Forbort and Jon Merrill, among others). The rest are in a pile of young men trying to cobble together some momentum and move up the depth chart--Pitlick has some traction, Hamilton none at all.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Even taking into consideration that the 2010 draft was not a strong year, the Oilers at this point appear to have missed on three of their four higher picks (Pitlick, Hamilton, Martindale) with Hall (#1 overall) and Marincin to show for the big part of the draft.
No watershed here, and this fall Dallas Eakins didn't choose any of them for his hockey team. Jobs that went to Gazdic, Acton, Arcobello and Ryan Hamilton were won easily over the men taken high in the 2010 draft.
This is their time, and we hear crickets. A year from now, we won't bother to ask.