NOT THE RIGHT MIX....

Jason Gregor
October 18 2013 02:00PM

A 1-6-1 start for the Oilers doesn't inspire much confidence in Oilesnation. Why should it? Are the Oilers as bad as their record? I don't think so. Are they a playoff calibre team? I didn't think they were before the season, and they don't look like one now.

I recognize it is only eight games, but until Craig MacTavish makes a few more changes this team won't be a true contender. I don't expect him to be able to make all these moves instantly, but hopefully the Oilers recognize their deficiencies. This team isn't built to be a winner, and even if some fans or members or the team don't want to hear it, this team is still four of five key pieces away from being a legitimate contender.

I've said it for three years that this team isn't hard to play against, and four years later they still aren't hard to play against. They are getting better, mainly because Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle invoke fear in the opposition.

But you can't win with all young, skilled players who lack size.

MacTavish clearly won the David Perron for Magnus Paajarvi trade. Not just because Perron has more skill, but because he competes harder shift to shift. The Oilers need more of that. Perron is an upgrade over Paajarvi. You can't expect MacTavish to win every trade outright, however, so his next moves will need to be about making the overall makeup of his team better.

Last March I wrote, 

The way I see it the Oilers will end up moving two, likely three players amongst Hemsky, Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi and Nail Yakupov in the next 18-14 months. You might not like that reality, but I don't see any other way this team will be able to improve and afford their lineup if they don't make those types of moves. 

There is a good chance that the Oilers trade those guys and they put up decent numbers on another team, and likely more than the players coming to Edmonton, but that doesn't mean the Oilers will lose those trades. If they acquire a strong, steady top-pairing defenceman that should make them more competitive.

If they acquire a skilled forward who plays physical, scores, is a good puck retriever and goes to the net that will make them better. The Oilers will still have three very good skilled players remaining, in Hall, RNH and Eberle and one of 64, 89, 91 and 83. 

Paajarvi has already been moved, and I honestly believe that deal was for two reasons. First off, because Perron is better, but also because he gives them another skilled-winger, and that would allow MacTavish to deal one of his skilled right wingers for either a solid D-man, or big, skilled forward.

All of you are emotionally invested in the Oilers. You watch every game, read as much info on the Oilers as you can, comment on this site and you call in or listen to TSN 1260 regularly. You are extremely passionate about the Oilers. The past four years you've watched the Oilers tank it, and the only hope you were given was that Hall, RNH, Yakupov and Eberle would eventually lead this team to the playoffs.

You believed it, and when someone mentions trading one of the young forwards, I completely understand the instinct to say, "shut the hell up."

How could the Oilers deal one of the key pieces, a player you've been told would help the Oilers return to the playoffs?

It's natural to not want to move them.

Most will say trade Hemsky or Gagner before moving any of the Fab Four. That makes sense, but neither of those two will garner the type of player the Oilers need to become a top contender.

The only way the Oilers can acquire a significant piece is to trade one of their key kids. It sucks, but I believe that is the reality that MacTavish faces.

NO NEED TO RUSH...

I'm not suggesting MacTavish make this move next week in an attempt to salvage this season. The last thing he should do is make a move from a position of weakness or from desperation. However, he has to recognize this type of trade is necessary if the Oilers ever plan on returning to the postseason.

The Oilers will start winning, maybe not as often as you'd hope, but I'd be willing to bet they don't go 1-6-1 during any other 8-game stretch this season.

This team has talent, but they have too much similar talent.

They need some reliable, veteran forwards who are skilled enough to play in their top-six. You can't expect the kids to learn from each other.

Boyd Gordon has been a solid addition. He plays hard and he knows his role. His offensive outburst has been a major bonus, but I don't expect him to score 20 goals this season, or next. He's never been that type of player. They need to find a reliable, cagey veteran like Gordon, but who has the skills to play top-six minutes.

The Oilers need a true top-pairing defender, a player who is 24-27 years of age with at least four years of NHL experience.

The Oilers can't expect Darnell Nurse or Oscar Klefbom to jump into the NHL and be that guy. They need to have a guy who those two can learn from; a guy who can make their transition to the NHL easier. The only way I see the Oilers acquiring said player is by moving Yakupov or Eberle. I don't see them moving Hall or Nugent-Hopkins.

If I had to choose I'd move Yakupov.

He's a former first overall pick who has only played 54 NHL games. He's only 20 years of age. Of course there will be a risk in moving him, but he'd also garner a solid return. He very likely could become a 40-goal scorer on another team, but the Oilers don't need more offence. They need different types of offence. The Oilers skilled players are all similar, and they need to add a different element into their top-six.

They need more solid two-way players. They need a solid top-pairing defender. They need some skilled size in their top-six. Until they acquire that, I don't see them winning regularly.

The Oilers might eventually win with Hall, Eberle, Yakupov and Nugent-Hopkins as their four key forwards, but how long will it take to fill in the other key holes on the blueline and within the forward group? Two years, four years or five years?

MacTavish shouldn't rush into a trade, but I believe the organization has to look at the big picture and face reality that one of those four, likely a right winger, will need to be moved in order for this team to acquire the other key pieces that are lacking to achieve a winning formula.

QUICK HITS...

  • Mark Arcobello is making the most of his NHL opportunity. He has eight assists in eight games. The points are great, but I've been most impressed by his hockey sense. He makes a lot of smart plays with and without the puck. It is only eight games, so we'll need to see him play more to get an accurate assessment, but he's been very impressive.
     
  • Sam Gagner got the green light to take part in contact drills. He joined the Oilers in Ottawa and could return to the lineup within a week. When he comes back, I'm curious to see what Eakins does with Arcobello. It is hard to imagine he'll come out of the lineup.
     
  • The Corsi crowd has quieted down significantly. If I'm calculating this correctly, and I easily could not be, the Oilers as a team are around -30 in Corsi. (Updated correct number.) Only Eberle and Arcobello are above 50%. This team still has lots of work to do at ES. They are improving, but they have a ways to go.

     
  • The Oilers might have won the game if their PP was able to convert on one of the three consecutive PP chances in the 2nd period. They had excellent puck movement, but couldn't finish. It's been that type of year so far for the Oilers. When PP is going, the goaltending struggles. Last night it was the opposite.
     
  • Denis Grebeshkov has been recalled after playing three games in OKC. I suspect you will see him in the lineup tomorrow vs. the Sens. The Oilers have lost five in a row, and resting/sitting one of the D-men would make sense.
     
  • Eakins will try Yakupov on the left wing and put Perron on the right side. His reasoning for moving Yakupov is that he'll get more pucks to the net instead of always having puck exposed to middle on his off wing, and I'm guessing it is the same for Perron. Both of them were playing on their off wings.  So the top two lines for tomorrow will be:

    Yakupov-RNH-Eberle
    Hall-Arcobello-Perron
     
  • The Oilers PK continues to give up too many great chances. The Oilers have allowed a PP goal in every game this season. Their franchise record is 14 consecutive games set between November 20th to December18th, 2003. Thanks to Elias Sports Bureau for getting me that answer. 

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR 

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Racki
October 18 2013, 02:10PM
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I've been leading the charge on moving a young skill guy (I pick Yakupov, just because the other top 3 fit in very well) for a #1D. Also, I wondered if we could pass off Arco as a gem.. Sell high ... Think Matt Read or Cory Conacher (without the goals though) if this hot streak keeps going. Yes, he fits in super well, but is he irreplaceable? No. Can we fool some teams into thinking he's a lower end star? Maybe. Maybe him and the 2nd would have gotten you Bishop over Conacher plus TB 's fourth, for example (if this hot streak happened last year) .

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#2 Smokey
October 18 2013, 02:17PM
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Improving the mix sure would make this team a contender, but right now the problem is so much more. Special teams, goaltending, and 5x5 defensive zone play is the culperites. The teams problems can be fixed now. Personnel will still take time. Every single night you get at least 2 of the 3 big problems, and sometimes you get all 3. This team on paper with this mix should be .500 and with the pack.

I think long term we gotta accept moving an untouchable for different piece. The obvious is the young Russian. However when you trade such a player you often don't break even, or you loose. But even if you make such a deal, you gotta see what you have and I don't think the Oilers have seen his potential. I'm too scared they would move him before we know.

Reality is this team needs a goaltender, a top defenceman, and top six size to be a contender. How do you get this?

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#3 Big Cap
October 18 2013, 02:18PM
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PATIENCE - This is a complete joke. With the highend draft picks we have ascertained and a years of "developing" our young players in a non pressure environment and all of us accepting no playoffs as we "rebuild" where do we stand?

Name one team in professional sports that has missed 7 years of no playoffs, chosen 3 first overall picks and was still this terrible. We can't even play in the middle of the pack, we are once again a last place team.

PATIENCE - Whats the rush?? Its a rebuilt after all. It's a 12-15 year process.

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#4 Smokey
October 18 2013, 02:20PM
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Racki wrote:

I've been leading the charge on moving a young skill guy (I pick Yakupov, just because the other top 3 fit in very well) for a #1D. Also, I wondered if we could pass off Arco as a gem.. Sell high ... Think Matt Read or Cory Conacher (without the goals though) if this hot streak keeps going. Yes, he fits in super well, but is he irreplaceable? No. Can we fool some teams into thinking he's a lower end star? Maybe. Maybe him and the 2nd would have gotten you Bishop over Conacher plus TB 's fourth, for example (if this hot streak happened last year) .

I thought the same about Arco, just that the guys unreal on the dot. You could maybe get your "Bishop," that way.

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#5 Micbilly99
October 18 2013, 02:25PM
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Jason, the problems the Oilers possess are vast, but can be nailed down to: size up the middle, non-physical defense and poor goaltending. If MacT doesn't address those issues, the team will remain a lottery team for the forseeable future. Plain and simple.

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#6 bwar
October 18 2013, 02:25PM
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Who are earth is going to trade away a legitimate #1D? I would trade any of the young guns for a true #1 D-man but I just don't think that trade is out there.

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#7 They're $hittie
October 18 2013, 02:29PM
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Im sorry I know I am going to get trashes for this but; (and I love eberle and don't want to trade him)

Eberle is not the player and is not going to be consistently the player he was two years ago. He can be a better all around player but I just don't notice him on the ice as much this year or last as you did the year before. He is not a 6 million dollar player. If a winger is making that much he better be a consistent 30-40-70 guy. And even if he is there is it the Kunitz effect? Is he really the one doing the work or along for the ride? So as I see it we have a terrific three and not a fab four. (sorry eberle fans). If he was a center you would really see the short comings in his physical and defesnive games, and he would not be scoring at that rate.

This is also the best time to trade him as he has a Canadian Charisma. There is a love affair with this player that tends to overvalue him. That being said his value is extremely high. IF you trade him and not yakupov than you ultimately maximize a value that is likely to deter and you defer the 6M that eberle is getting back a few years to yakupov.

The only other options is to get rid of the rest of the old. Petry and Smid are decent but need to be traded for something, as well as nick Shultz. Hemsky, a useful player also has to go. If your going to change the guard do it. Don't change the bottom half of the roster that barely has consequence on the game and call it a day.

I really want to keep all these young forwards, but Eberles contract and temporary high value is what the oilers would need to do to maximize the value of one of there assets. Trading Yakupov with all the negative around him right now will not fetch what he is worth.

Sorry Wayne,

Emotions aside, reality needed.

EDIT: I was the first one to trash this, two; I dont see why people thing Eberle Nuge and Hall have chemistry. It is two elite and one good player. Does Burrows have Chemistry with Sedins or is he leaching off of them. Wait until Yaks third year and play him there and see the results.

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#8 borisnikov
October 18 2013, 02:31PM
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Gregor, What site are you getting your Corsi # from?

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#9 NJ
October 18 2013, 02:32PM
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Jason: I've mentioned it before but wonder weed what your thoughts are. Any chance of a Seth Jones for Yak trade? Seems Nashville could use the offense and have a plethora of good D men. I don't know that we get a #1 d man unless we get him young, (like Yak is) and wait for the development. I also don't know that anyone in the system including Nurse Klefbom is a bonafide #1.

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#10 borisnikov
October 18 2013, 02:35PM
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According to Extraskater.com they are -18 (311/329) in total 5v5 events. 48.6%

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#11 Benny Botts
October 18 2013, 02:36PM
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I agree a 100% with moving one of the kids and my choice would be Yak. You have to give something valuable to get something valuable. IMO,a big reason this team is 1-6-1 is their goaltending but special teams on both sides of the puck have been awful. I think...and hope, if they can sure up the PK,PP, and get a key save here and there, we will start seeing some more W's.

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#12 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
October 18 2013, 02:40PM
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I have to say, I'm loving the look of those two lines.

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#13 Racki
October 18 2013, 02:41PM
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Smokey wrote:

I thought the same about Arco, just that the guys unreal on the dot. You could maybe get your "Bishop," that way.

I wonder how much of that is Arco and how much is an improved team focus on face offs. Might be all on Arco though.

I see a lot of thumbs downs for my post. Lol

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#14 Smokey
October 18 2013, 02:42PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

Im sorry I know I am going to get trashes for this but; (and I love eberle and don't want to trade him)

Eberle is not the player and is not going to be consistently the player he was two years ago. He can be a better all around player but I just don't notice him on the ice as much this year or last as you did the year before. He is not a 6 million dollar player. If a winger is making that much he better be a consistent 30-40-70 guy. And even if he is there is it the Kunitz effect? Is he really the one doing the work or along for the ride? So as I see it we have a terrific three and not a fab four. (sorry eberle fans). If he was a center you would really see the short comings in his physical and defesnive games, and he would not be scoring at that rate.

This is also the best time to trade him as he has a Canadian Charisma. There is a love affair with this player that tends to overvalue him. That being said his value is extremely high. IF you trade him and not yakupov than you ultimately maximize a value that is likely to deter and you defer the 6M that eberle is getting back a few years to yakupov.

The only other options is to get rid of the rest of the old. Petry and Smid are decent but need to be traded for something, as well as nick Shultz. Hemsky, a useful player also has to go. If your going to change the guard do it. Don't change the bottom half of the roster that barely has consequence on the game and call it a day.

I really want to keep all these young forwards, but Eberles contract and temporary high value is what the oilers would need to do to maximize the value of one of there assets. Trading Yakupov with all the negative around him right now will not fetch what he is worth.

Sorry Wayne,

Emotions aside, reality needed.

EDIT: I was the first one to trash this, two; I dont see why people thing Eberle Nuge and Hall have chemistry. It is two elite and one good player. Does Burrows have Chemistry with Sedins or is he leaching off of them. Wait until Yaks third year and play him there and see the results.

The two constants on this team are Eberle and Hall, together they are dynamic.

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#15 Benny Botts
October 18 2013, 02:43PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

Im sorry I know I am going to get trashes for this but; (and I love eberle and don't want to trade him)

Eberle is not the player and is not going to be consistently the player he was two years ago. He can be a better all around player but I just don't notice him on the ice as much this year or last as you did the year before. He is not a 6 million dollar player. If a winger is making that much he better be a consistent 30-40-70 guy. And even if he is there is it the Kunitz effect? Is he really the one doing the work or along for the ride? So as I see it we have a terrific three and not a fab four. (sorry eberle fans). If he was a center you would really see the short comings in his physical and defesnive games, and he would not be scoring at that rate.

This is also the best time to trade him as he has a Canadian Charisma. There is a love affair with this player that tends to overvalue him. That being said his value is extremely high. IF you trade him and not yakupov than you ultimately maximize a value that is likely to deter and you defer the 6M that eberle is getting back a few years to yakupov.

The only other options is to get rid of the rest of the old. Petry and Smid are decent but need to be traded for something, as well as nick Shultz. Hemsky, a useful player also has to go. If your going to change the guard do it. Don't change the bottom half of the roster that barely has consequence on the game and call it a day.

I really want to keep all these young forwards, but Eberles contract and temporary high value is what the oilers would need to do to maximize the value of one of there assets. Trading Yakupov with all the negative around him right now will not fetch what he is worth.

Sorry Wayne,

Emotions aside, reality needed.

EDIT: I was the first one to trash this, two; I dont see why people thing Eberle Nuge and Hall have chemistry. It is two elite and one good player. Does Burrows have Chemistry with Sedins or is he leaching off of them. Wait until Yaks third year and play him there and see the results.

We are watching two different games man. I have noticed Ebs a ton out there. I think you have some valid points on him being the one to be traded. However I think his overall game (leadership, skill, and so on..) will be more valuable then Yak's game in the long run. I could be wrong, as yak has only play 50-some games in the NHL. And I am shocked you dont think Eb's will be a 70 point guy...seriously?? I think he will be there or higher on a yearly basis.

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#16 Mo Playoffs Mo Problems
October 18 2013, 02:46PM
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@They're $hittie

I'm mostly in agreement with you, but it begs the question: if Eberle "is not a 6 million dollar player", doesn't that really cut into his trade value?

NHL GMs have to trade players based on contract value as well as player ability (otherwise no one in their right mind would make the Perron for Paajarvi trade). This is the same reason why MacT couldn't move Hemsky this summer; the other GMs did not see Hemsky as a $5 million/year player and wouldn't offer MacT an acceptable return.

I think everyone in Oilers Nation would learn to love a trade that improved the team by sending Ebs away for a top pairing D or big center, but I doubt that trade works unless Eberle can prove he's worth his contract (and basically becomes Phil Kessel at a $2 million/year savings).

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#17 Clayton
October 18 2013, 02:47PM
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If we can put together a deal to get Staal at center or a player like him for Gagner and a pick or a prospect in OKC, Yak and N Schultz for a top D man like a Weber, and maybe JSchultz for a genuine number 1 goalie... might take another player to make room for salary and to make it happen. If we can do that and also find a way to get a mean forechecker to play top 6 mins for Hemsky... none of this happens... then we have a contender. Add Nurse down the road and let Klefbom get better we will be good for years.

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#18 Benny Botts
October 18 2013, 02:52PM
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Clayton wrote:

If we can put together a deal to get Staal at center or a player like him for Gagner and a pick or a prospect in OKC, Yak and N Schultz for a top D man like a Weber, and maybe JSchultz for a genuine number 1 goalie... might take another player to make room for salary and to make it happen. If we can do that and also find a way to get a mean forechecker to play top 6 mins for Hemsky... none of this happens... then we have a contender. Add Nurse down the road and let Klefbom get better we will be good for years.

Hahaha Man I haven't seen a weber trade proposal for a while...Gave me a good chuckle on a Friday...Thank you

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#19 seanjohn667
October 18 2013, 02:55PM
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thank you Gregor for this.

as you said, fans invested in this Fab 4(5) don't want to face reality - that this team can not improve without sacrificing on of wunderkids. I, too have Hall and RNH as the only untouchable pieces. Even J. Schultz can be moved for the right return. think about it, would a Yak-J.Schultz package yield? I suggest that it could allow Mact to completely change the makeup of the team.

there is no reason to just keep this Fab 5 core together in this unfounded belief that it will just grow into a contended. They have not displayed a shred of proof that that will happen and the evidence to not believe in this core is mounting. I say trade, not 1, but 2 of the 5.

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#20 Big Cap
October 18 2013, 02:56PM
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Clayton wrote:

If we can put together a deal to get Staal at center or a player like him for Gagner and a pick or a prospect in OKC, Yak and N Schultz for a top D man like a Weber, and maybe JSchultz for a genuine number 1 goalie... might take another player to make room for salary and to make it happen. If we can do that and also find a way to get a mean forechecker to play top 6 mins for Hemsky... none of this happens... then we have a contender. Add Nurse down the road and let Klefbom get better we will be good for years.

Exactly.

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#21 Oiler63
October 18 2013, 02:58PM
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Maybe MacT does know what he's doing. Remember in the pre-season he said he's done with centre position and everybody is screaming and crying? Guys turned out to be ok.

Another thought, if Seth Jones turned out to be exactly what everyone thinks he is, would that make Nashville want to dump Weber and his contract?

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#22 Scott in Grande Prairie
October 18 2013, 02:59PM
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The other night, as I was watching the Pittsburgh game, a friend of mine who lives in Alabama sent me a Facebook message: “Dude, the Oilers problem isn’t their goaltending. It’s their size! Their forwards are all smurfs out there! They can’t cycle the puck. They’re too small!”

Before you ask how a dude in Alabama would know enough/care enough about hockey, be advised that he settled in Tuscaloosa (he married a local girl) after a nomadic career playing hockey in the AHL, ECHL and Europe. He was watching the Pittsburgh game on the Centre Ice package and that was the first Oilers game of any kind – exhibition or regular-season – this year.

His observation came at about the 10-minute mark of the first period. In other words – it took all of 10 minutes for a former minor-league journeyman to figure out the Oilers’ real problem.

They’re just not big enough or physical enough in their top nine. Their best players are their smallest players and that just doesn’t work in today’s NHL (Marty St. Louis is an exception). Yes, David Perron is an excellent pickup and definitely increases the team’s give-a-damn factor, but if the Oilers had five more players like him, it still wouldn’t solve the problem. He’s small and the Oilers have too much of that. Night after night, the Oilers are getting beaten by simple physics. They lose way too many puck battles in the offensive zone.

Boyd Gordon and Jesse Joensuu are good steps towards helping that problem, but the Oilers badly need a skilled big guy. A power forward.

Power forwards come at a premium. And not Ales-Hemsky-premium or Sam-Gagner-premium, either. We’re talking Eberle or Yakupov. Maybe even throw in a top-level prospect like Klefbom. Or a Justin Schultz (I’m assuming Hall and Nuge are the real-untouchables).

That’s the level of deal we’re talking right now. One of those smallish, young skilled guys has to be turned into a Skilled Big Guy.

There’s a dark cloud hanging over this team that probably looks more grim than it really is, but the reality is everyone’s snickering at the Oilers right now.

On a good team, Mark Arcobello’s point-a-game pace and 60-percent faceoff percentage would be garnering Calder Trophy talk (as a darkhorse, yes). But right now, the only people who know he’s in the NHL, other than the team and its fans, are his parents. That’s because much of the media has already written off the Oilers ...less than 10 games into the season.

Knowledgeable hockey people know you don’t write off teams before the leaves fall ... but I also expected the Oilers to look better than they are right now. I'm not in write-off mode, yet, but the problem is easy to see. They're too small.

Time to get “bold,” for reals, MacT.

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#23 fig pucker
October 18 2013, 03:02PM
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bwar wrote:

Who are earth is going to trade away a legitimate #1D? I would trade any of the young guns for a true #1 D-man but I just don't think that trade is out there.

pick four guys weber, suttor, pieterangelo, doughty. make phone calls and start kicking tires. ya it's along shot, but if gretzky taught us anything it's that no trade is impossible and no one is untouchable. yes we will have to pay dearly for such a trade, but what's the alternative? as the article eluded to we have lot's of the same kind of player (small, skilled forwards) we drafted them because they where the best player available, and that makes sense only if your going to use some of these peices to get what we need (top pairing d man, a great goalie). it's time managment starts making moves or all these great draft picks will have gone to waste.

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#24 bdiddy18
October 18 2013, 03:03PM
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Yakopov - Hemsky - Petry

for

Coubourn - Simmonds - Couterier

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#25 Big Cap
October 18 2013, 03:09PM
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fig pucker wrote:

pick four guys weber, suttor, pieterangelo, doughty. make phone calls and start kicking tires. ya it's along shot, but if gretzky taught us anything it's that no trade is impossible and no one is untouchable. yes we will have to pay dearly for such a trade, but what's the alternative? as the article eluded to we have lot's of the same kind of player (small, skilled forwards) we drafted them because they where the best player available, and that makes sense only if your going to use some of these peices to get what we need (top pairing d man, a great goalie). it's time managment starts making moves or all these great draft picks will have gone to waste.

Exactly.

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#26 Geoff
October 18 2013, 03:13PM
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Personally I don't think Yakupov has as much value as Eberle. Yak is more wild card and Eberle is a near established NHL first line forward and much less risk.

Yakupov's lack of defense probably scares GM's.

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#27 MessyEH!
October 18 2013, 03:14PM
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Eberle in a market like Toronto would be a league superstar. Look at how overhyped Toronto players are.

Hell there's leaf fans thinking we'll trade Eberle for Gardiner straight up. Crazy talk.

But Eberle for Galchenyuk, out of montreal, and a 1st rounder I would do.

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#28 Spoils
October 18 2013, 03:15PM
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we are not in a rebuilding phase but we are in a maturing phase.

the best outcome for us is something I call "the embarrassment of riches" outcome - we are embarrassed that we are as good as we are because we had to be sooo bad to get soooo many good players.

e.g. in 3-5yrs we potentially have 3 top tier D (Schultz, Klef, Nurse) and 5 top tier forwards (Hall, RNH, Yak, gags, Ebs (who has been amazing the last two games and pre-season btw and will be amazing at 26-28 when he is the older player in the puck battle)...

the problem with trading away any of these players can be exposed with an expected value calculation

E[x] = n x p where, n is the number of trials, p is the probability of a successful outcome.

In English it means some of these guys may not hit, but some of them will. we introduce additional risk and lower our EV if we trade any of them away.

the only way to remove that risk is if we trust management (cue face palm).

sooo do you feel lucky, or are you OK with waiting 3-5yrs then trading future draft picks and prospects for a goalie and some puzzle pieces to make the run.

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#29 Geoff
October 18 2013, 03:16PM
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MessyEH! wrote:

Eberle in a market like Toronto would be a league superstar. Look at how overhyped Toronto players are.

Hell there's leaf fans thinking we'll trade Eberle for Gardiner straight up. Crazy talk.

But Eberle for Galchenyuk, out of montreal, and a 1st rounder I would do.

Oh god just imagine galchenyuk being re-united with yakupov. Lights out for the next decade imo.

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#30 Andrew
October 18 2013, 03:17PM
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Oiler management seems intent on turning a pigs ear into a silk purse. Mact has made a couple if good signings/trades(Perron). This organization has had it's head firmly planted in the sand. As a consequence they have seersl talented players who are selfish and immature.

Inserting Eakins and his overgrown ego is the final blow to Oiler's fans hopes for a respectable season. Kevin Lowe and Katz are the other two wild cards. Their god ole boy mentslity and lack of vision has pretty much clinched a lottery picl in June '14.

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#31 They're $hittie
October 18 2013, 03:21PM
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The things Gagner gets knocked for are the things people tend to over look in Eberle because of his one better (and yes Magnificent year). If Eberle was a center I would suggest he may not score at the rate he has been.

Yes his not a 6 Million dollar player would hurt his trade value, but people are still on the fairy tale of his domination of the WJC's as 19-20 year old. And they look at his numbers from two years ago. When his number balance out with more consistency he will lose trade value. Right now it is extremely high. The eastern media and GMs do not see what we do. And because of perception that people have with the difference in his and Halls personality Eberle is given a pass and is not criticized as much, thus raising his value.

In terms of his points he has had one really good year. (insane shooting percentage) and has never repeated that year. His other two years he is on par with Gagner (age around the same) and he plays a much easier position and has played with better linemates. So as Yaks icetime increases and with more options for the PP (notice he is on the second PP now) and his shooting percentage normalize yes I only see him as a 60-65 point guy. Yes not far off 70 I get that.

And if Hall and Eberle had so much Chemistry than why are they not together all the time. Because Hall does all the work himself. It does not matter who Hall plays with so long as they are top 9 nhl players. I see a chemistry for Eberle with one of the two centers, preferably nuge, and a good fit of Gagner and Yak. As for the LW I dont think it matters which line they are on.

Asset management, maximum potential, and overall benefit to the oilers is (sorry)trading Eberle and not Yakupov.

What happens to all the russians we drafted if we up and trade Yak?

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#32 Mo Playoffs Mo Problems
October 18 2013, 03:24PM
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MessyEH! wrote:

Eberle in a market like Toronto would be a league superstar. Look at how overhyped Toronto players are.

Hell there's leaf fans thinking we'll trade Eberle for Gardiner straight up. Crazy talk.

But Eberle for Galchenyuk, out of montreal, and a 1st rounder I would do.

If I was MacT, I'd make that trade in a heartbeat, but the real question is why would Montreal make this trade?

I'd love to see Galchenyuk in Edmonton, but Montreal (a near salary cap team) would be giving up one of their true blue chip prospects (already playing as a functional NHLer), a future first round pick, and absorb $5.1 million in cap hit for the next two years. All of this is so that they can get another undersized player that we all hope will turn into a consistent 70 point a year guy? I don't see how that'd make sense for the Habs...

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#33 Dave
October 18 2013, 03:27PM
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I think if the losing does not stop I can see the players rejecting the swarm system.

Eakins will lose the room. He has no track record as a winning coach in the NHL thus no earned respect.

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#34 MessyEH!
October 18 2013, 03:32PM
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@They're $hittie

I think Eberle brings you the biggest return, with the lowest risk.

He's Hemsky 5 years ago. Highly hyped, has produced enough for people to believe the hype. And would sell alot of tickets and jerseys.

But he is not going to improve from where he is now.

Now Eberle is only the 3rd or 4th best player on the Oilers, but would be heralded as the saviour of whatever east coast team he was traded to.

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#35 Glenn Schwarz
October 18 2013, 03:36PM
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from Philly beat guy. Yak, Hemmer, Duby, Smid for Brayden Schenn, simmonds, Emery, Coburn now thats a BOLD trade I'd do that trade in a NY second

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#36 Jeff
October 18 2013, 03:37PM
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COACHING.....

COACHING.....

COACHING........

This is poor that we are pointed every other direction and not even having a coversation about the coaching.

Again cannot stress this enough, the coach is responsible for the PK, defense, the line up, the offense, the forecheck.

I agree the players must execute, however their needs to be a synergy between them and right now there is common ground on anything.

I am not asking to run the coach out of town, however not to have a discussion about the methods right now is poor.

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#37 Romulus' Apotheosis
October 18 2013, 03:57PM
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While I completely understand the fatalism endemic to media pundits on this (trade a young star) topic (the reasons are nearly endless! -- wrong mix; too small; too skilled; not tough enough; too many; bad attitude; cap structure; immediate need; long term need; etc. etc.), I think it is worth reminding ourselves this is an ink-spiller's game.

We've had Yakupov traded for Clarkson, Reimer, Miller and numerous other players. Guess what... none of these deals are near good enough.

The only thing worth it is the stud D under long term contract at the right age.

BUT... these pundits forget to tell you how a lot of these players were acquired. Few, if any, were acquired by trading former 1st overalls. Why? Because you lose that trade 99 times out of 100.

We didn't get Pronger by giving up a 1st OV. The Blues didn't get Bow by giving up a 1st OV. Van didn't get Hamhuis or Garrison by giving up a 1st OV. The Wild didn't get Suter by giving up a 1st OV. The Bruins didn't get Chara by giving up a 1st OV. The Rangers didn't get McDonagh by giving up a 1st OV. The Leafs didn't get Phaneuf by giving up a 1st OV.

etc. etc.

we have no compelling reason to give in to fatalism here. While Yakupov would certainly be sufficient to acquire a great defender, he is not necessary.

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#38 They're $hittie
October 18 2013, 03:58PM
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MessyEH! wrote:

I think Eberle brings you the biggest return, with the lowest risk.

He's Hemsky 5 years ago. Highly hyped, has produced enough for people to believe the hype. And would sell alot of tickets and jerseys.

But he is not going to improve from where he is now.

Now Eberle is only the 3rd or 4th best player on the Oilers, but would be heralded as the saviour of whatever east coast team he was traded to.

thank you for summarizing and simplifying what I was trying to say. Spot on. But If we dont trade him we will have to live with a deteriorating value. I am fine with that. I like Eberle, but reasonable expectations and the need to mix it up suggest he is the one.

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#39 Tammy
October 18 2013, 04:01PM
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Nice to see I am not the only one out there thinking Yak needs to go.... He is too Arrogant and not a team player.m Hemsky..... well no one wanted him and now he is trying to prove himself and his worth yet again.If I were to choose who should go....Both Shultz's and Yak. I have only been a fan for 4 years but already I see the problems areas as well. Not enough physical presence is my number one beef. When we hit alot we win! get Eager and Brown and Nurse out there on a regular basis!

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#40 LOIL99
October 18 2013, 04:05PM
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I like the mixup coming in the lineup. Can't hurt. But I don't like Eberle and Arc being split up. They look AWESOME together.

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#41 They're $hittie
October 18 2013, 04:08PM
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@Tammy

Why does Yak have a bad attitude? Because of the way the Edmonton media use his language barriers against him? Because they need a scape goat and it can't be the Canadian kid.

I know numerous staff at rexall and in the oilers organization. There is countless stories of Taylor hall being a complete mule. Ask any attractive female who has seen him at the bar. Does any one talk about his attitude?

I dont care what your attitude is if you bleed the colours. Go out and try your best, while listening to the coach. Not everyone gets a long with everyone. And if you are filling your team with nice guys and good team mates instead of actual players with talent and skill (and i mean all skills, incuding hitting, FO, etc) than you will not win games. Yes you need to be a team doesnt mean you cant play as a team if one or two of them have an attitude or are the alpha dogs.

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#42 outdoorzguy
October 18 2013, 04:11PM
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Gregor asks "Are the Oilers as bad as their record? I don't think so". 1-6-1 is pretty good evidence they are a bad team. Again, media and fans grasp at straws and hope. They take 2 goals in 8 seconds and make that the total game, riding THAT wave and totally ignoring yet another loss. This is a crappy team, led by crappy management and ownership. Lets start doing something about it. Let the media stop calling the players by first names, this makes it awful hard to ask tough questions when you act as if you are friends with a player. But oh wait, there hasn't been a tough question asked in years...we don't want to piss anyone off!! Stay home from the games. Do you think Katz cares whether or not we win or lose when his pockets get continually lined by sold out games? Merchandise sales through the roof help fill his other pocket. Everybody just clings on to that last thread hoping at the end of it will be this miraculous turnaround. I've got news, this team isn't capable of turning a table let alone turning around a hockey season. 1-6-1, yah, a bad team. A really bad team!! But we support it so why should it change?

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#43 Towersofdub
October 18 2013, 04:21PM
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after reading some of these ridiculous trade suggestions, i'm left thinking only one thing. Children shouldn't use the internet. I don't know why so many people seem to think come of the NHL best teams are going to part with some of their best players for Edmonton's dead weight! What possible reason is there for montreal to trade Galchenyuk? Why wold Nashville trade Weber? Why would LA trade Doughty!? Why would Minnesota trade Suter? Why would any team give up a world class player for the oilers suggested? The only deals that make sense are maybe the ones involving Philly, only because they have big, young players under contract, but could do with skill, and edmonton has skilled young players under contract, but need some size...even those deals are unlikely.

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#44 wayne bond
October 18 2013, 04:25PM
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OOPS! Oil lose again! OOPS! Could have had Schneider or Luongo last summer.

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#45 Romulus' Apotheosis
October 18 2013, 04:28PM
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"The Corsi crowd has quieted down significantly. If I'm calculating this correctly, and I easily could not be, the Oilers as a team are around -30 in Corsi. (Updated correct number.) Only Eberle and Arcobello are above 50%. This team still has lots of work to do at ES. They are improving, but they have a ways to go. "

Not sure who's is being quiet. If you mean the team hasn't won the corsi battle in the last two games (the Pit game being much closer than the Isles game), it's been noted and discussed a lot from what I've seen.

At any rate, here's the numbers for the kids to see at home:

http://www.extraskater.com/team/edmonton-oilers/2013

Team 5x5 sits at 48.6% CF (311CF to 329CA events)

That is a MASSIVE improvement from last year's 44.6%

http://www.extraskater.com/team/edmonton-oilers/2012

(mind you 8 games is still a very small sample size, we could see that number move a fair bit).

Players above 50%:

Petry, Eberle, Arco, Belov, Hemsky (Hall at 49.6)

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#46 Rama Lama
October 18 2013, 04:36PM
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You brought up at least a million topics in this article..........most are relevant. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on new personnel and how they will be utilized.

I for one am starting to think our issues are not as dire as the stats indicate ( we have been in every game so far except one) but more to do with player utilization issues.

It seems to me there is no structure that the players can easily understand and execute. The swarm is a mess in all three zones, our PP has gone to the dogs, the PK is frankly laughable and goaltending is suspect at best.

I's surprised that Eakins has not dressed Dubby as a forward........but I don't want to give him any ideas.

The professional writer have been kind to Eakins so far.......I suspect this will end soon enough but if he has Gazdic playing on the PP don't be alarmed.

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#47 NsxZero
October 18 2013, 04:38PM
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Towersofdub wrote:

after reading some of these ridiculous trade suggestions, i'm left thinking only one thing. Children shouldn't use the internet. I don't know why so many people seem to think come of the NHL best teams are going to part with some of their best players for Edmonton's dead weight! What possible reason is there for montreal to trade Galchenyuk? Why wold Nashville trade Weber? Why would LA trade Doughty!? Why would Minnesota trade Suter? Why would any team give up a world class player for the oilers suggested? The only deals that make sense are maybe the ones involving Philly, only because they have big, young players under contract, but could do with skill, and edmonton has skilled young players under contract, but need some size...even those deals are unlikely.

This. If there's a reason we want to trade a player, there's a reason why the other team Doesn't want that player. Case in point, Eberle might be great, but he has a $6 mill price tag for a relatively unproven consistent player.

If we're talking about acquiring elite talent here, we better be ready to lose any of our 'untouchables'.

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#49 Papamike
October 18 2013, 04:44PM
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While I usually agree with JG, I have to disagree with this statement..... He very likely could become a 40-goal scorer on another team, but the Oilers don't need more offence.

I feel that is exactly what the Oilers need is that, more offense. Forget the GAA and just outscore the opposition. 2 goals per game will not win in this league. Run and gun, but I am old and remember the old days...way more exiting than today.

Just my two cents....

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