THE PANIC ROOM

Lowetide
October 09 2013 06:25PM

Edmonton Oiler fans have suffered more than any other NHL fangroup since 2006 spring, and we'll bitch and moan when we want to, thank you very much. It is however important to look before we leap, to assess before coming up with a new slogan or sign. In regard to the Dube, patience is the key.

Devan Dubnyk has played 141 NHL games (that's about three seasons for a "regular" and has a .912 career save percentage.In the last two seasons before this one (2011-12 and 2012-13), Dubnyk ranks 15th among 38 goalies in save percentage

I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that Dubnyk (at .917) is less likely to post a strong SP in this season than most of the goaltenders in his range, or even several spots above. Whatever else we know about goalies, predicting consistency is fickle, borderline insane. Devan Dubnyk has a track record of stopping pucks, has his fingers and toes, and is not 50.

Beyond that, what honestly do we really know? Do we KNOW that Pekka Rinne is going to have a .919 SP this season? Of the 47 goalies who've played at least one minute this season, 20 of them have a SP under .900. Do equipment changes mean we'll see a lower average SP this year? I don't know, but it might be a factor.

I DON'T WANT EXCUSES, BUSTER

Me either. God I hate them. Either you did or you didn't. And goalies drive me nuts. Stop the puck! You know what's worse than staying with your goalie when he's struggling? NOT staying with your goalie when he's struggling. Because if you go chasing goaltender rainbows, you're the Philadelphia Flyers and we all know where that gets you.

The best route? Give Dubnyk the start, pat him on the ass, say nice things, get his mind off things. Send him to a movie, re-shoot that commercial he did that everyone loved (remember, we're helping Dubnyk here) last season.

I will bet Jonathan Willis' paycheck that Devan Dubnyk will be inside the top 15 among regular goaltenders in the SP category this season. Why would I say that?

Because despite appearances, Devan Dubnyk did not forget his job. Sht happens, and then you pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start all over again.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Do me a favor: watch this 10 times. If you can tell me this puck didn't change directions (this Zapruder angle is really pretty good) then I'll buy in to the Dubnyk panic.

Otherwise, I'm onside with the Dube.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 vetinari
October 09 2013, 08:46PM
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Looking at the save percentage graph, Schneider was a bargain for NJ at only a first rounder... and it also explains why MacT went after him pretty hard at the draft and dangled our first rounder as part of a package for him. In the long run though, I think we'll be happier with Nurse on the blueline than with Schneider in net.

Also, switching horses in net at this stage is impractical and unlikely-- any other goalie in the league would cost and arm and a leg at this point in the season and the better course would be to give the Dubnyk/LaBarbera tandem the reins until Christmas and if they are still struggling at that time, then explore trade options. However, I would rather see an internal (i.e. Dubnyk rebounding) or external long term solution (young goalie-- a la Bobrovsky #2) in net than a quick fix (Miller or Bryzgalov) that can walk away at the end of the season.

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#52 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:49PM
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Kyle wrote:

It's frustrating how people hate on Dubnyk, they can only remember the bad goals he let's in and not the good work he does. Don't forget that his 15th overall save percentage over the last two years came behind one of the worst defences in the league. The Oilers defense handed their opponents multitudes of glorious scoring chances every game and Dubnyk still came out of it comparing favorable to some high end goaltenders. The guy is a legitimate number one goalie.

"The guy is a legitimate number one goalie."

On a non-playoff team.

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#53 seanjohn
October 10 2013, 06:15AM
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watched it 10. change of direction is irrelavent. he played it wrong. be a wall, and he saves it.

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#54 Donnybrook
October 10 2013, 10:06AM
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On the Trouba goal, I could care less if the puck changed direction 8 times. It was shot from the blue line, and Dubnyk was way back in his crease. A fundamental error which cost a goal. He comes out where he should have been, and that puck hits his body harmlessly.

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#55 Oiler63
October 09 2013, 08:01PM
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The puck did curve a little bit but Dubnyk should still have saved it. Petry should've blocked the shot but he dodged.

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#56 Jackson
October 09 2013, 08:43PM
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Batfink wrote:

Seriously though, the Blackhawks just won a cup with average goaltending. That's all we're asking for Devan.

You don't watch hockey do you?

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#57 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:11PM
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Lowetide wrote:

1st rd pick for Schneider? That's great value, I think you'd agree.

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

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#58 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 09:32PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

Thats not fair to say. Bishop worked out, but thats hindsight. At the time I don't believe Bishop was any more regarded than Dubnyk and even now I think it open who turns out to be better

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#59 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 09:32PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

Thats not fair to say. Bishop worked out, but thats hindsight. At the time I don't believe Bishop was any more regarded than Dubnyk and even now I think it open who turns out to be better

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#60 Nina Russo
October 10 2013, 12:59AM
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If you we're have the analyst you claim to be, you would note that Dubnyk's struggles this year are directly related to the size of his new pads. He was warned many times last year not to rely on his butterfly, to stay on his feet and play the shooter and to get his angles right because the pads were going to be smaller this year and his weaknesses would be magnified. He ignored his own coaches and is now paying the price. Goals go in short side and five hole because he thinks he is bigger than he is. Reality is he is slow now that his body doesn't naturally cover half the net. He may want to be better but he simply doesn't know how to be better. Anyone who thinks Dubnyk will magically show up one day and be "fixed" is in for a seemingly inexplicable season. He will never have the stats he had before, because his fundamentals were flawed last year. He has to re-learn the position ... Maybe in three or four years he will reach those stats, but unlikely much before then.

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#61 Richard
October 10 2013, 01:44AM
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Regardless he should of been taking that off the crest not trying to catch it

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#62 Gkpoil
October 10 2013, 04:37AM
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DarkLinkCosplay wrote:

Are you saying that Dubnyk is bad at this game? I'm bad at this game. You're bad at this game. Don't underestimate how hard the NHL is. Moreover, Dubnyk does not "constantly" fail his job. I don't know about you guys, but I remember a whole bunch of games last year where the only reason we won or didn't lose 10-1 was because Dubnyk bailed us out.

I can remember a few games where Dubnyk totally stole a game for the oil, but I also can remember quite a few games he lost for us. Dubnyk frequently lets in soft goals, usually at key times. Dubnyk has only 6 shutouts (I believe) in his NHL career (141 games), Khabibulin has 5 with the oilers, playing less games (119), to put in perspective. Yes the oil have been brutal defensively but such a low SO% shows that Dubnyk cannot shut opponents down as often as we need.

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#63 Rod from Viking
October 10 2013, 07:22AM
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@Walter Sobchak

Very accurate and if someone has never played goal they don't get it. The mental part is 70% of it Career save percentage means nothing in this case because this is the first year of the pressure of being the #1 and the team needing to take the next step. Devon hopefully get's in the zone against the Hab's tonight,It could be as easy as a save on a breakaway, not allowing a goal on a 5 on 3 power play or a couple big saves early. I'm pulling for the kid but I'm not betting on him, he just isn't athletic enough or use his size to his advantage.

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#64 Rhino
October 10 2013, 08:17AM
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With his size, he just has to come out of the net 5-6 ft and you have a "total eclipse" of the net. But he is already inside the crease when the play evolves.

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#65 **
October 09 2013, 07:25PM
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squeezboks wrote:

I never played goal so take this with a huge grain of salt but seems to me that if Devon plays up a couple feet further out, that shot gets stopped. Same with the other one. In both cases, he is sitting just at the top of the crease. Like I said never played goal so dunno if that is worth anything.

I have never played goalie in hockey but I have in soccer. He does seem to be a bit inside the crease. With the play at that distance from him he should have been farther out to cut the angle and make the distance seem smaller for the shooter.

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#66 Poolanov
October 09 2013, 08:01PM
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Brutal positioning on that goal. Not like it was a two on one and he had to stay back to cover the pass. Makes me wonder where his mindset was at????????

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#67 mlcsellil
October 09 2013, 08:18PM
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I'm not pushing the panic button yet, however I'm standing right beside it. I really want DD to do well, since we've all see him do so well and bail us out over the last couple seasons. I'm sure he is feeling lots of pressure knowing he is the starting tender, and on the last year of his contract. It would be comforting for the fans and the team if he wasn't so consistently inconsistent. It's those dam weak pucks that sneak past him that shakes our confidence in him.

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#68 Jeffff
October 09 2013, 08:48PM
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Batfink wrote:

Seriously though, the Blackhawks just won a cup with average goaltending. That's all we're asking for Devan.

Reality is not optional

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#69 Doran
October 10 2013, 05:53AM
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I have a feeling that if Dubnyk craps the bed tonight, things are going to get interesting in MacT land. Watch for him to do something, because he can't afford not to.

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#70 DT
October 10 2013, 08:58AM
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I'm with you Lowetide. On the CBC broadcast, they played an angle that clearly showed the puck hitting Petry's stick, then begin to flutter and drop. Nobody seems to acknowledge that. It's the same reason why curve balls are so hard to hit. I guess Dubey is this year's whipping boy. We Oiler fans are passionate, but we gang up on certain players, make them miserable, then boo them when they come back after a trade. I'm talking about Poti, Grier, Arnott, Comrie, etc, etc. I feel bad for Dubey. I hope he doesn't suffer the same fate.

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#71 Clarko
October 10 2013, 09:14AM
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Lowetide wrote:

1st rd pick for Schneider? That's great value, I think you'd agree.

If you are asking if I would trade Darnell Nurse for Schneider, it would be a big fat NO! That is what the asking price was (plus a 2nd and a prospect I believe). To me, Schneider hasn't proved anything yet...he has only played 100 games behind one of the best teams in the league. We'll see what it looks like in NJ behind a much weaker team.

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#72 oilerjed
October 10 2013, 09:18AM
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Quick- 12 Dubnyk-10 Thomas-9 Smith-9 Lundqvist-9 Crawford-9 Luongo-8 Price-8 Mind you all have played one game more then Dubs, all are off their career pace. Its early in the season, goalies always let in more goals then they normally would. That is a list of some pretty impressive goalies with some pretty ba numbers. This is sure to level out. Relax

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#73 Rama Lama
October 10 2013, 10:24AM
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Rhino wrote:

With his size, he just has to come out of the net 5-6 ft and you have a "total eclipse" of the net. But he is already inside the crease when the play evolves.

You are absolutely right the days of a stand -up goalie are gone.........now we have the dreaded " drop and flop", generation of goaltenders taking away the bottom of the net.......yipeeeee!

Watch Devan closely, before the shot is even taken, he is on the ice flopping around like a landed fish. Just how does one move around and cover angles when doing the drop and flop.

I hope he gets some sage advice from the coaches like........STAND UP DUBBY!

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#74 Poolanov
October 09 2013, 08:19PM
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Can't imagine they'll send Monahan back

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#75 Butters
October 09 2013, 08:25PM
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I have no problem with Dubnyk letting in bad goals, I just have an issue with when he lets in bad goals.

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#76 madjam
October 09 2013, 08:56PM
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BeeKayDub wrote:

If you recall, a few of OUR rebuild teams of the past few years have ripped it up for the first ten games as well. Then proceeded to tank it for the remaining 70...

Although we were missing our two best centers , as Flames still are by the way , we manage to start badly . I blame the new coach and system even more so than the players . Each year a new coach and system , how do they expect them to adapt at the NHL level at so many changes when they are still a young learning club . Kind of ridiculous is it not ? looks like we are tanking early and maybe often . Maybe we should get a new coach and system and really confuse the crap out of them .

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#77 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:58PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Great point. If the Oilers want to upgrade, UPGRADE. There are very few goalies in the NHL so good they are worth spending precious assets on.

Isn't that what Mac-T has been trying to do? A first round draft choice is a pretty precious asset.He saw the problem not sure why the fan-boys don't.

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#79 spliff
October 10 2013, 09:00AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Not sure if this has been said yet... My apologies if it has.

Dubnyk problem is fundamentals right now, I believe he's over compensating right now and that's part of the issue.

Being a goalie a couple things I've noticed.

That puck should have hit Dubnyk right in the Oilers logo, instead Dubnyk tries to use glove hand and the puck dips on him.

He's not square to the shot, another thing I've noticed early is Dubnyk is over committing and far to deep in his net.

Simple little things that can get worked out by video and one on one coaching.

The mental part us what worries me going forward, a goalie can really mess with his own head.

Then there is always the Oilers going after two goalies in the off season doesn't help your confidence much.

When someone is getting paid 3.5 million a year to do a job, they can't curl up in the fetal when their boss doesn't 100% support them all the time.

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#80 Oiler Al
October 10 2013, 10:00AM
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There are worse starters in the league than Dubby. I would suggest that he has not really improved his game over the past two years. Areas like puck movement, lateral moves,long shots being misread. Now he is also spending too much time on this knees , might be the new pads, I don't know.

So is it Dubby at his apex or is it the goalie coach not making efforts to improve or change his game.

I know one thing for sure, if the the team could cure the circus in front of him, he would be a much better tender.

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#81 Zamboni Driver
October 10 2013, 10:39AM
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I think Dubnyk is an okay goalie. He doesn't do ANYTHING spectacular and there's no way he's the goalie when they're competitive (someday, hopefully).

But....

Stop giving a pass, people defending the first two games listen to Louie Last-place-team-has-never-had-a-player-make-a-mistake-ever Debrusk on tv way too much.

Sure the puck changed direction.

From 50 feet away.

Stop it.

No. SAVE it. That's why it's CALLED a 'save. Because he 'saved' the team.

Not panicking because I don't think he's a great goalie. But it's 100% fair to say he has been lousy his two games so far.

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#82 TM8Trent
October 10 2013, 11:24AM
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I've always defended Dubnyk to naysayers and think he's an adequate NHL goalie. He's had decent numbers on bad Oiler teams. One thing I'm curious about though is his past success. Like, real success. I know he was drafted in the first round (14th overall I think) but I don't remember why, exactly. I just had a look at his career stats and based on those I am actually a bit alarmed/confused as to why he was ranked so highly? The only year I can see where he had great success was in the ECHL in Stockton. If you look at his numbers in Kamloops he's about even in the win/loss column and his GAA & SV% are good but not great. Did he win a playoff series?

Can someone enlighten me?

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#83 Poolanov
October 09 2013, 08:11PM
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(runs back) Good Lord Kodiak, what did that thing weigh?

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#84 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:46PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

He's suppose to be on his knees. If Dubnyk is on his knees he is still higher then the bar.

His game is off and yes a " hot mess" he is, but totally fixable.

If it's his head............watch out.

So you are saying he is not confident right now.Who would have guessed.

A goalie with the nickname the big easy has a competitive issue and loses focus.Shocking.

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#85 Dman
October 10 2013, 10:04AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

David...there is no more stand up goalies, that skill dies with Brodeur.

That puck doesn't go in if Dubnyk squares to the original shot instead of trying to catch it.

Thanks Tips. Maybe you should share what it takes to be an NHL goalie with Dubby since you seem to know the solution.

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#86 916oiler
October 10 2013, 10:48AM
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I have faith in Dubes! Until our defense is solidified there are going to be many a night where he endures a shooting gallery. He's done pretty f---ing well with what's been in front him the past few years. He's EARNED some patience from the fan base!

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#87 Harlie
October 10 2013, 11:41AM
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Easy to see that the puck deflected off of Petry's stick.

But why was Dube so deep in his net? Why does he have to crouch down and get small on a shot coming from the blue line? If he simply came out a bit further and stood tall there is no way the puck goes past him.

So I still hang that goal on Dube.

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#88 Yakman
October 10 2013, 06:36PM
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TM8Trent wrote:

I've always defended Dubnyk to naysayers and think he's an adequate NHL goalie. He's had decent numbers on bad Oiler teams. One thing I'm curious about though is his past success. Like, real success. I know he was drafted in the first round (14th overall I think) but I don't remember why, exactly. I just had a look at his career stats and based on those I am actually a bit alarmed/confused as to why he was ranked so highly? The only year I can see where he had great success was in the ECHL in Stockton. If you look at his numbers in Kamloops he's about even in the win/loss column and his GAA & SV% are good but not great. Did he win a playoff series?

Can someone enlighten me?

Six. Foot. Five.

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