THE PANIC ROOM

Lowetide
October 09 2013 06:25PM

Edmonton Oiler fans have suffered more than any other NHL fangroup since 2006 spring, and we'll bitch and moan when we want to, thank you very much. It is however important to look before we leap, to assess before coming up with a new slogan or sign. In regard to the Dube, patience is the key.

Devan Dubnyk has played 141 NHL games (that's about three seasons for a "regular" and has a .912 career save percentage.In the last two seasons before this one (2011-12 and 2012-13), Dubnyk ranks 15th among 38 goalies in save percentage

I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that Dubnyk (at .917) is less likely to post a strong SP in this season than most of the goaltenders in his range, or even several spots above. Whatever else we know about goalies, predicting consistency is fickle, borderline insane. Devan Dubnyk has a track record of stopping pucks, has his fingers and toes, and is not 50.

Beyond that, what honestly do we really know? Do we KNOW that Pekka Rinne is going to have a .919 SP this season? Of the 47 goalies who've played at least one minute this season, 20 of them have a SP under .900. Do equipment changes mean we'll see a lower average SP this year? I don't know, but it might be a factor.

I DON'T WANT EXCUSES, BUSTER

Me either. God I hate them. Either you did or you didn't. And goalies drive me nuts. Stop the puck! You know what's worse than staying with your goalie when he's struggling? NOT staying with your goalie when he's struggling. Because if you go chasing goaltender rainbows, you're the Philadelphia Flyers and we all know where that gets you.

The best route? Give Dubnyk the start, pat him on the ass, say nice things, get his mind off things. Send him to a movie, re-shoot that commercial he did that everyone loved (remember, we're helping Dubnyk here) last season.

I will bet Jonathan Willis' paycheck that Devan Dubnyk will be inside the top 15 among regular goaltenders in the SP category this season. Why would I say that?

Because despite appearances, Devan Dubnyk did not forget his job. Sht happens, and then you pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start all over again.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Do me a favor: watch this 10 times. If you can tell me this puck didn't change directions (this Zapruder angle is really pretty good) then I'll buy in to the Dubnyk panic.

Otherwise, I'm onside with the Dube.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 hockeycrazed
October 09 2013, 09:06PM
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If I looked at Devan's situation, I can't help but think that if it were me who constantly fails at my job, my boss would have handed me my pink slips with no explanations required. You see, athletes these days gets pay hundreds of thousands of dollars, millions sometimes, to play a game he's supposed to be good at, and he has constantly disappoint his team when he is counted upon, it is therefore an inconceivable conclusion that he should held accountable, don't you agree?

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#2 madjam
October 09 2013, 07:04PM
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No need to panic ? Second phase of rebuild if we are patient may only take another 6 years . By the way , how is Flames months old rebuild going ? Young stars ripping up the stats this early season . Suppose it's to bad we only have old/agged vets above 20 now ?

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#3 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:56PM
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Doran wrote:

So if Duby screws up again tomorrow do we get to panic?

I think you mean when.

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#4 vader30
October 09 2013, 07:29PM
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** wrote:

I have never played goalie in hockey but I have in soccer. He does seem to be a bit inside the crease. With the play at that distance from him he should have been farther out to cut the angle and make the distance seem smaller for the shooter.

your comment became invalid as soon as you said you played goalie in soccer...

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#5 DSF
October 09 2013, 08:09PM
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Things look a little different when the sample size is larger and you consider 5V5 SV% which is a much better indicator of a goalies performance.

Dubnyk is well below average:

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/7/18/4492808/devan-dubnyk-replace-or-re-sign

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#6 Thinker
October 09 2013, 06:53PM
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Or the size of dubnyks pads made up for his lack of lateral movement. Now dubnyk is not good enough. Just playing devils advocate, i think dubnyk is moog calibre. You can win with him, but he isn't a number 1, and he can't be credited as a game-theif. We need to find fuhr, and fast.

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#7 Nina Russo
October 10 2013, 12:59AM
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If you we're have the analyst you claim to be, you would note that Dubnyk's struggles this year are directly related to the size of his new pads. He was warned many times last year not to rely on his butterfly, to stay on his feet and play the shooter and to get his angles right because the pads were going to be smaller this year and his weaknesses would be magnified. He ignored his own coaches and is now paying the price. Goals go in short side and five hole because he thinks he is bigger than he is. Reality is he is slow now that his body doesn't naturally cover half the net. He may want to be better but he simply doesn't know how to be better. Anyone who thinks Dubnyk will magically show up one day and be "fixed" is in for a seemingly inexplicable season. He will never have the stats he had before, because his fundamentals were flawed last year. He has to re-learn the position ... Maybe in three or four years he will reach those stats, but unlikely much before then.

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#8 Sliderule
October 09 2013, 07:40PM
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Studies show that a 90 mph slap shot from 60 ft gives you about .460 seconds to react. As average goalie reflexes are about .121 seconds Dubnyk either has to buy glasses or find another profession. He gets beat from that distance so often that it has to be one or other

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#9 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:46PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

He's suppose to be on his knees. If Dubnyk is on his knees he is still higher then the bar.

His game is off and yes a " hot mess" he is, but totally fixable.

If it's his head............watch out.

So you are saying he is not confident right now.Who would have guessed.

A goalie with the nickname the big easy has a competitive issue and loses focus.Shocking.

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#10 vader30
October 09 2013, 06:50PM
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that puck in the GIF did move but it is still dubnyk's responsibility to stop that. that is seen as a bad goal and bad goals kill teams. i am a HUGE dubnyk fan and he has gotten much better since he entered the NHL but he has a track record of letting in 1 (or even more) bad goal per game. he needs to mature a little bit more and then he will be a solid top goalie in the NHL.

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#11 Geoff
October 09 2013, 06:56PM
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I'd rather push the panic button on our defense lol.

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#12 Naky
October 09 2013, 08:17PM
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With how poorly the team has played in front of Dubnyk not just in his two starts this year but in the past couple years, you'd think the fans would put more accountability on the rest of the team to do better. But no, two games in, they're all ready to ignore the past stats and pronounce that the sky is falling and demand that we get rid of the only goaltender in our entire system who has proven that he can play behind really bad teams in favour of a "better" goaltender - usually a goaltender that has had the luxury of playing behind good teams.

Of course, logic such as this will be ignored and the blind expectation that if only we had an elite goaltender to carry this team every game we play, why golly, we could be a playoff team! The ridiculous amount of prime turnovers leading to golden scoring opportunities for the opposing team, the lack of any sort of responsible two way play from the forwards we also expect to score for us, and the complete absence of quality defending have nothing to do with anything and so yes, two games into Dubnyk's season, it's all his fault.

So I say to hell with it, sign Bryzgalov, trade Hall for Ramo straight up, and Yakupov for Eddie Lack. Let's get serious around here for once.

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#13 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:05PM
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Couple things:

1) A teams confidence in their goalie making a big save matters and it changes the flow of the game.When a goalie lets in soft goals players try to hard to block shots and stop shots from even happening.In other words panic mode.When a team has confidence in their goaltending they tend to take more chances offensively.Knowing that their goalie can make the big save,

2) Save percentage is a skewed stat. When a team faces a goalie that lets in weak goals from bad angles or from a distance (see Dubnyk) the coach will preach to his players to shot from anywhere and the players do. When a team faces a hot goalie they tend to wait for excellent scoring opportunities before shooting.Therefore a weak goalie faces more easy shots and a strong goalie faces more difficult shots.This skews the data with save percentage.

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#14 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:20PM
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Naky wrote:

With how poorly the team has played in front of Dubnyk not just in his two starts this year but in the past couple years, you'd think the fans would put more accountability on the rest of the team to do better. But no, two games in, they're all ready to ignore the past stats and pronounce that the sky is falling and demand that we get rid of the only goaltender in our entire system who has proven that he can play behind really bad teams in favour of a "better" goaltender - usually a goaltender that has had the luxury of playing behind good teams.

Of course, logic such as this will be ignored and the blind expectation that if only we had an elite goaltender to carry this team every game we play, why golly, we could be a playoff team! The ridiculous amount of prime turnovers leading to golden scoring opportunities for the opposing team, the lack of any sort of responsible two way play from the forwards we also expect to score for us, and the complete absence of quality defending have nothing to do with anything and so yes, two games into Dubnyk's season, it's all his fault.

So I say to hell with it, sign Bryzgalov, trade Hall for Ramo straight up, and Yakupov for Eddie Lack. Let's get serious around here for once.

Dubnyk played two games and let in four weak goals.Through his career he has let in weak goals at an alarming rate.Spin any way you want.

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#15 Jackson
October 09 2013, 08:43PM
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Batfink wrote:

Seriously though, the Blackhawks just won a cup with average goaltending. That's all we're asking for Devan.

You don't watch hockey do you?

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#16 madjam
October 09 2013, 08:56PM
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BeeKayDub wrote:

If you recall, a few of OUR rebuild teams of the past few years have ripped it up for the first ten games as well. Then proceeded to tank it for the remaining 70...

Although we were missing our two best centers , as Flames still are by the way , we manage to start badly . I blame the new coach and system even more so than the players . Each year a new coach and system , how do they expect them to adapt at the NHL level at so many changes when they are still a young learning club . Kind of ridiculous is it not ? looks like we are tanking early and maybe often . Maybe we should get a new coach and system and really confuse the crap out of them .

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#17 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:35PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Not sure if this has been said yet... My apologies if it has.

Dubnyk problem is fundamentals right now, I believe he's over compensating right now and that's part of the issue.

Being a goalie a couple things I've noticed.

That puck should have hit Dubnyk right in the Oilers logo, instead Dubnyk tries to use glove hand and the puck dips on him.

He's not square to the shot, another thing I've noticed early is Dubnyk is over committing and far to deep in his net.

Simple little things that can get worked out by video and one on one coaching.

The mental part us what worries me going forward, a goalie can really mess with his own head.

Then there is always the Oilers going after two goalies in the off season doesn't help your confidence much.

He is also on his knees before the shot. Right now he is a hot mess.

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#18 Gkpoil
October 10 2013, 04:37AM
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DarkLinkCosplay wrote:

Are you saying that Dubnyk is bad at this game? I'm bad at this game. You're bad at this game. Don't underestimate how hard the NHL is. Moreover, Dubnyk does not "constantly" fail his job. I don't know about you guys, but I remember a whole bunch of games last year where the only reason we won or didn't lose 10-1 was because Dubnyk bailed us out.

I can remember a few games where Dubnyk totally stole a game for the oil, but I also can remember quite a few games he lost for us. Dubnyk frequently lets in soft goals, usually at key times. Dubnyk has only 6 shutouts (I believe) in his NHL career (141 games), Khabibulin has 5 with the oilers, playing less games (119), to put in perspective. Yes the oil have been brutal defensively but such a low SO% shows that Dubnyk cannot shut opponents down as often as we need.

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#19 David S
October 09 2013, 07:37PM
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If Dubnyk had been on his feet instead of his knees, that goal never happens, no matter the amount of deflection. Looks to me like he goes down far too early.* Smallest 6'5" goalie in the league.

*TWSS

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#20 Racki
October 09 2013, 06:49PM
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The angle from behind the net is about as best as it gets... http://video.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=449960

Looks to me like it just squeeze through Dubnyk's body. The .gif version almost creates an illusion, because you're saying to yourself (or I was, anyways) "that's going right for his body, yet it winds up in the back right side of the net". When really, it changes direction after (presumably) hidding Dubnyk's side.

When I first saw that goal, I thought Trouba just blasted it into the back of the net and Dubnyk missed it with the glove, but I think, yah, it squeezed through the glove arm and his body. Either that, or it hit the side of his arm. But it didn't really look like it changed directions until it hit Dubnyk.

Actually, I'm sure there was a little bit of movement on the puck though because of it being on end when Trouba shot it, but Dubnyk has to have that still. But I'm no Dubnyk hater... hope he has a great game tomorrow and puts this and his last game behind him.

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#21 Smokey
October 09 2013, 06:51PM
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Dubby is what he is, a league average goalie over three years. Last year his 5x5 save percentage I believe was top ten, and he was just outside the top ten in overall save percentage. He's a good starter, not elite. The debate is not whether can be a legit number 1, its whether he can be an elite goalie.

Last year Corey Crawford who was thought to be questionable at the start of the year, had a good campaign, and now has auditioned for the national team. Emery his partner last year who had sick numbers, looks like a beached whale in Philly.

After 3 games I am not concerned. I'll wait till 10-15 games to make an assessment of his play. The Oilers have been taking a pile of penalties and they have been turning over pucks non stop so far. Things will improve.

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#22 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:49PM
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Kyle wrote:

It's frustrating how people hate on Dubnyk, they can only remember the bad goals he let's in and not the good work he does. Don't forget that his 15th overall save percentage over the last two years came behind one of the worst defences in the league. The Oilers defense handed their opponents multitudes of glorious scoring chances every game and Dubnyk still came out of it comparing favorable to some high end goaltenders. The guy is a legitimate number one goalie.

"The guy is a legitimate number one goalie."

On a non-playoff team.

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#23 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:11PM
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Lowetide wrote:

1st rd pick for Schneider? That's great value, I think you'd agree.

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

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#24 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 09:40PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

David...there is no more stand up goalies, that skill dies with Brodeur.

That puck doesn't go in if Dubnyk squares to the original shot instead of trying to catch it.

Raise the cross bar 4 inches.There will be more goals and the stand up goalie will return.

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#25 DT
October 10 2013, 08:58AM
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I'm with you Lowetide. On the CBC broadcast, they played an angle that clearly showed the puck hitting Petry's stick, then begin to flutter and drop. Nobody seems to acknowledge that. It's the same reason why curve balls are so hard to hit. I guess Dubey is this year's whipping boy. We Oiler fans are passionate, but we gang up on certain players, make them miserable, then boo them when they come back after a trade. I'm talking about Poti, Grier, Arnott, Comrie, etc, etc. I feel bad for Dubey. I hope he doesn't suffer the same fate.

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#26 99thOilerfan
October 09 2013, 06:45PM
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So......

From what I saw ( including above ) he is having bad "Puck Luck"...

So......

Play Dubnyk, till he gets his groove on? Puck start bouncing his (a)way?

SIGH.... Goalies....

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#28 Will
October 09 2013, 07:38PM
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Why is this the season of panic? Anyone else notice that? I mean, sure we've been saying ditch this guy or that go for years now, but in previous years I don't quite remember the frenzy associated with two losses quite so much as this year.

Any theories? Is cause we're finally fed up and that it's not two games that have caused people to say turf Dubnyk but two seasons of mediocre play?

Is it the face that no one is saying, maybe next year we'll challenge, but are instead saying, this has to be the year?

I think that's it. I think everyone is down right terrified that another year will go by and we won't make the playoffs. Because if that happens, we all know the rebuild will have been a complete failure, we are not a cup contender, and if that didn't work, then no one really knows what will.

Yep, that is it. Anyone with me on that one? Feeling like two games and he played crappy, not this year oh no, not again. Waiting is done, no more, we need those wins and need em now.

I agree with that. However, I also think this team is going to just get better, and better, and better as the year goes on.

The new system is looking good, we can actually get the puck back, then even get it out of our zone. We apparently can win draws this year. We don't have to cross our fingers when Habby gets in net. We actually have some real solid physicality on the fourth line. Have some size and grit in our top nine with Perron, Joensu, and Gordon mixing it up. Even Arcebello has been hitting. And finally, our defense, oh, so much better than last year. Vancouver aside, the shots for and against are not even close to last year. Belov, Smid, and Ferrence play with a nice edge, while Petry and Schultz are moving the puck really well. And Nuge, wow.

Everyone is freaking out and I am too, freaking out at how much better our team looks out there this year. Hell even Hemsky is playing again, who saw that coming?

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#29 Batfink
October 09 2013, 08:22PM
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Seriously though, the Blackhawks just won a cup with average goaltending. That's all we're asking for Devan.

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#30 Butters
October 09 2013, 08:25PM
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I have no problem with Dubnyk letting in bad goals, I just have an issue with when he lets in bad goals.

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#31 TDSM31
October 09 2013, 10:14PM
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The problem I have with Dubnyk is that he relies almost solely on positioning his big body to stop pucks rather than having great reflexes and athleticism. So, if he's the least bit out of position or his angle is a bit off, he's pooched and isn't good enough to make a reactionary type save. This is what keeps him from being a true No.1.

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#32 spliff
October 10 2013, 09:00AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Not sure if this has been said yet... My apologies if it has.

Dubnyk problem is fundamentals right now, I believe he's over compensating right now and that's part of the issue.

Being a goalie a couple things I've noticed.

That puck should have hit Dubnyk right in the Oilers logo, instead Dubnyk tries to use glove hand and the puck dips on him.

He's not square to the shot, another thing I've noticed early is Dubnyk is over committing and far to deep in his net.

Simple little things that can get worked out by video and one on one coaching.

The mental part us what worries me going forward, a goalie can really mess with his own head.

Then there is always the Oilers going after two goalies in the off season doesn't help your confidence much.

When someone is getting paid 3.5 million a year to do a job, they can't curl up in the fetal when their boss doesn't 100% support them all the time.

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#33 D
October 09 2013, 06:59PM
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LT,

You know from my previous comments that I've been one of the biggest Dubynk fans since seeing him at a breakout game in Los Angeles a few years back. So I would love nothing more than for him to succeed here in Edmonton.

However, a radio caller made a very good point after the Vancouver game. Dubynk oftentimes plays stellar when the games don't matter. How much of his save percentage can be attributable to playing in so many games where the outcome had no playoff implications, resulting in a low-pressure situation for the goalie?

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#34 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 07:17PM
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As fans we have little influence on our team. We don't score goals, make trades, (thank god as I have heard some suggestions) or stop pucks.

One of the only things we can do is support our team and our players. Dubnyk's past stats, out preforming every other Edmonton goalie, in the last 5 years says he has earned our support and by bashing him the way some has only weakens his confidence and the Oiler's team as a whole.

Be a team player and support our starting goalie......till at least game 15 or so

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#35 **
October 09 2013, 07:21PM
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the puck does change direction but why doesn't Dub move square in front of it?, had he done that even with the sudden dip of the puck he would have stopped it from going in. It wasn't the best positioning. Patience may be needed for Dubnyk, he may end up being a very good goalie, but I don't think The Oilers can afford that patience anymore.

If this team had been a contender for a couple of years now and the roster looked solid, then Dubnyk may have had the benefit of time. But time is up. I read a few comments on sveral blogs including here were people say how tense the team and management look, how "har they are squeezing their sticks". And it was very visible, when Hall banged the glass after his goal. This organization is finally feeling the heat. And with reason. Looks like fans have finally ran out of patience.

Dubnyk may deserve patience, but sadly there is none left for him in this town.

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#36 canucknnv
October 09 2013, 07:53PM
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Why are we not talking about Dubnyk not challenging the shooter? The guy is a big dude and in the gif there is plenty of net to shoot at without a deflection, then he goes down and creates more space. I have no problem with butterfly or hybrid it doesn't matter to me just stop the 45 footers and the easiest way to do that is quit cowering in the net and make the puck hit you. No, I'm not a Dubnyk fan but options for his replacement are pretty light.

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#37 Batfink
October 09 2013, 08:21PM
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Err, the puck, like, totally changed direction, like toward him, or something. Like, he totally has to make that save, or something. And he was, like, totally too deep in the net. Dude.

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#38 Kyle
October 09 2013, 08:44PM
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It's frustrating how people hate on Dubnyk, they can only remember the bad goals he let's in and not the good work he does. Don't forget that his 15th overall save percentage over the last two years came behind one of the worst defences in the league. The Oilers defense handed their opponents multitudes of glorious scoring chances every game and Dubnyk still came out of it comparing favorable to some high end goaltenders. The guy is a legitimate number one goalie.

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#39 Jeffff
October 09 2013, 08:48PM
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Batfink wrote:

Seriously though, the Blackhawks just won a cup with average goaltending. That's all we're asking for Devan.

Reality is not optional

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#40 Doran
October 10 2013, 05:53AM
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I have a feeling that if Dubnyk craps the bed tonight, things are going to get interesting in MacT land. Watch for him to do something, because he can't afford not to.

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#41 Dman
October 10 2013, 10:04AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

David...there is no more stand up goalies, that skill dies with Brodeur.

That puck doesn't go in if Dubnyk squares to the original shot instead of trying to catch it.

Thanks Tips. Maybe you should share what it takes to be an NHL goalie with Dubby since you seem to know the solution.

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#42 lucky
October 09 2013, 06:40PM
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Let's keep the jury out a bit longer on Doobie and the rest of this group. Either that or panic, but I've tried that and it doesn't really help.

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#43 TeddyTurnbuckle
October 09 2013, 07:53PM
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I don't care if that puck was deflected, most goalies could react in time. He went down too early and was out of position.The Canucks were shooting from everywhere. It was a bit embarrassing. Dubnyk was as shakie as an overloaded washing machine. I'd start him next game but if he lets another long range shot in...

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#44 Kodiak
October 09 2013, 08:06PM
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Quick gave one up from near center a couple nights ago. Luongo got scored on from the corner and Lundqvist and Smith got shelled last night. It happens. Dubnyk hasn't been very good but he's had no puck luck. I'd like to see him play farther out of his crease but I'm not worried about him pulling it together.

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#45 Spydyr
October 09 2013, 08:58PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Great point. If the Oilers want to upgrade, UPGRADE. There are very few goalies in the NHL so good they are worth spending precious assets on.

Isn't that what Mac-T has been trying to do? A first round draft choice is a pretty precious asset.He saw the problem not sure why the fan-boys don't.

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#47 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 09:32PM
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@Spydyr

Thats not fair to say. Bishop worked out, but thats hindsight. At the time I don't believe Bishop was any more regarded than Dubnyk and even now I think it open who turns out to be better

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#48 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 09:32PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

Thats not fair to say. Bishop worked out, but thats hindsight. At the time I don't believe Bishop was any more regarded than Dubnyk and even now I think it open who turns out to be better

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#49 Craig1981
October 09 2013, 09:32PM
Trash it!
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Spydyr wrote:

Schneider would not have been my first choice but Mac-t only had so many options.They problem should have been addressed before Mac-T's reign .There were a lot of quality goalies available for not much a couple years ago for example Bishop was traded for a second round pick.At this point the team is dealing from a place of weakness brought on by their own inaction.The other GM'S sense this weakness.

Thats not fair to say. Bishop worked out, but thats hindsight. At the time I don't believe Bishop was any more regarded than Dubnyk and even now I think it open who turns out to be better

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#50 Walter Sobchak
October 09 2013, 09:38PM
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David S wrote:

If Dubnyk had been on his feet instead of his knees, that goal never happens, no matter the amount of deflection. Looks to me like he goes down far too early.* Smallest 6'5" goalie in the league.

*TWSS

David...there is no more stand up goalies, that skill dies with Brodeur.

That puck doesn't go in if Dubnyk squares to the original shot instead of trying to catch it.

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