David Perron: MacTavish’s Masterpiece?

Jonathan Willis
November 24 2013 11:30AM

With the Edmonton Oilers struggling as they are, Craig MacTavish hasn’t exactly been given a free pass by fans in his first full season as general manager. What even his most ardent critics should agree on, though, is that it looks like he fleeced the St. Louis Blues when he pawned off Magnus Paajarvi and a draft pick in exchange for David Perron.

Perron was already a pretty good player when MacTavish added him. But the 25-year-old forward is on pace to exceed his previous career bests – and by a lot.

The Basic Numbers

The chart above shows Perron’s 82-game pace from every season in his career where he played more than 40 games. The only preceding season even close to his early work this year was 2011-12, where Perron rode a high shooting percentage to a 30-goal pace.

The really astonishing item here is Perron’s shot totals. Players don’t typically see huge leaps in shot totals, but Perron is running at more than double his established career rate. What’s going on?

Five-on-five

Numbers for this chart (and the next one) come from ExtraSkater.com and BehindtheNet.ca.

There really isn’t much to see at this level: Perron is a hair below his career goal numbers and a touch above his career assist numbers.

But something interesting happens when we compare Perron’s shot numbers for this season to last season. Perron had 61 shots at five-on-five in 48 games a year ago; this season he has 54 in 20 games. He’s firing the puck roughly twice as often as he has in the past once ice-time is accounted for. His goal totals are only at his career rate because his shooting percentage is half what it was last year at even-strength.

In short: he’s been good so far, but if these shot numbers are for real he’s likely going to be even better at evens in the near future. Which is frightening.

Five-on-four

Perron’s numbers are through the roof here. Some of that may come from playing on a better power play unit – it’s extremely difficult to separate teammate and coaching effects from player talent when looking at special teams numbers – and the assist totals in particular may not be ridiculous.

As for the goal totals? Digging into the shot numbers again, we find that Perron is again firing the puck at roughly twice the rate he did in St. Louis, but this time his shooting percentage is roughly double what it was last season. This to some degree will off-set the expected rise in his five-on-five shooting percentage.

In other words, these numbers are likely going to come down because that spike in shooting percentage probably isn’t sustainable, but even so he’s legitimately on pace for a career-best season.

The Biggest Question

I can’t recall an instance of an experienced NHL forward suddenly doubling his shot rates at the age of 25. One of the reasons people like me prize shot rates so much is because they tend to be pretty stable; players reach an established level of ability and move a bit but the fluctuations are nowhere near as dramatic as shooting percentage is.

I don’t know if Perron can keep up this shooting pace, and I didn’t watch him closely enough in St. Louis to hazard a guess as to what’s changed. One item that stands out – Tyler Dellow brought it to my attention on Twitter last night – is that Perron is getting a higher percentage of his shots through to the net (he has 16 missed shots on 80 shots this year; last year the number was 31 on 84) and that seems like something that probably won’t continue, but it isn’t close to being the whole explanation either.

My gut feeling is that Perron shoots a little less frequently simply because this is so far out of the norm, but at the same time it seems entirely possible to me that this is a breakout campaign and an indication of a more trigger-happy player.

If so, that’s fantastic news for Edmonton. Perron is under contract for two more years at a $3.812 million cap hit; that’s a pretty fair deal for a 50-point guy and a ridiculously good deal for a player who will challenge for 30 goals every year if he keeps shooting like this.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:13PM
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Darrell wrote:

Just curious DSF - do other teams make mistakes in your eye or just the Oilers? It amazes me how you can continually play Monday morning QB ! What amazes me even more is that your allowed to crap on the Oilers on our own site without the admins doing something - lowetide site benefits Wanye - grow a pair !

Of course other teams make mistakes.

I'd be more that happy to discuss any team's record in the draft with you.

I amazed that you would take umbrage with any critical analysis of a team that is about to miss the playoffs for the 8th straight season.

That didn't happen accidentally you know.

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#52 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:37PM
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Rocket wrote:

Does anyone here watch St. Louis games a lot? I'd like to know how Paajarvi is doing from someone who actually watches Blues games.

His stats are not great but I don't know exactly why? He's a smart defensive forward so I would have thought he would fit in with a Hitchcock style of play.

I'm glad The Oilers got Perron though and I would make that trade again in a second but I always kinda liked Paajarvi and wouldn't mind seeing him do well.

I've watched a few STL games and Paajarvi is pretty much the same perimeter player you saw in Edmonton.

In 7 games played he's only registered 3 SOG (although 1 of them went in).

At that rate, he would only have 35 SOG over an 82 game season which, at his career shooting percentage, would give him only 2-3 goals.

Unless he can transform his game somehow, I think him returning to Sweden is a pretty good bet.

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#53 acg5151
November 24 2013, 06:14PM
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I wasn't at all surprised by Perron. That dude killed me on NHL 11 and it seems like every time I watched a Blues game he did something to be noticeable which is more than most players on the Blues.

How do fans watch the Blues? I swear that they are one of the most boring teams to watch. That series from a couple years ago with the San Jose Sharks made my eyes bleed.

Also, you can't really cherry pick drafts. Each team makes mistakes and has missed a guy. Pretty much every team in 07 passed on PK Subban. And DSF, this is the first I've heard that the 07 draft is one of the deepest ever. The fact is that had the Oilers drafted Perron, he may not have turned out the way he did.

Also from the 07 draft - every single team in the league passed on Jamie Benn multiple times as he was drafted in the 5th round. The Oilers aren't the only team.

The LA Kings drafted Thomas Hickey 4th overall in 07. He played 0 games for the Kings before the Islanders picked him up on waivers. Despite this the Kings won a cup. Boston drafted Zach Hamill 8th. They still won a cup. Florida drafted Keaton Ellerby two spots ahead of Ryan McDonagh. How embarrassing is that?

So no, the Oilers aren't an abnormal team at drafting, a lot of teams make mistakes.

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#54 Spydyr
November 25 2013, 07:34AM
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YFC Prez wrote:

Wow. This thread is totally derailed.

Mr DSF ,

Can you agree on the 2 main points from Willis' article ? 1 Mac T fleeced St. Louis on the deal sending out Paajarvi and getting Perron. 2 Perron is having a career year offensively.

I'm fairly confident even the most jaded fan such as yourself will agree with these 2 points.

DSF trolls for the win.

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#55 S cottV
November 25 2013, 08:17AM
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D-Unit wrote:

I'm not saying Eakins is without fault for where this team is at, but I am very doubtful many other coaches would have the Oilers in much of a different position. One thing I do fault him for is that he assumed he was dealing with a team who understood the fundamentals of playing NHL Hockey. Any coach coming to a team who has been through as many coaches as the Oil have recently should have picked up on that. Ralph wasn't the guy to be coaching this team either. Let's face it, the only reason he was ever head coach was because Steve T didn't want to do any hard work finding a new coach last year, and didn't want to look like a bad guy.

I would have to disagree. An experienced coach would have this team at .500 with an outside chance at rallying to make the playoffs. This is a disaster because it would have put the club in a position to play very serious must win hockey games for the remainder of the year. A great learning experience for the club, whether they ended up making the playoffs this year or not. Now - they will try to put a brave face on it - say the right things - maybe get the players to rally somewhat around the bigger picture beyond this year - but - very difficult to play 60 games with no chance to make the playoffs. The fact that we have had such turnover with the Head Coach was probably all the more reason to avoid too many system changes - too soon. The players looked like they were over thinking - second guessing themselves left and right through too many avoidable losses this year. I read a post not long ago that was apparently from an inside source which said something like "it might take 30 or 40 games for the players to totally get what Eakins is trying to do." OMG! Information overload - and it sure looked like it. With a 4 year contract, you dont have to fully put your stamp on a team until mid way through year 2, after a decent run at the playoffs year 1 and well on the way to making the playoffs in year 2. Arrogance, ego and inexperience got in the way. Geez - will this team make the playoffs next year? Only 140 more games to go, before we find out I guess...

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#56 a lg dubl dubl
November 24 2013, 12:24PM
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Hes not 6'4 240lbs lets trade him for Lucic!! SELL HIGH!!!!*

*As it is spoken by the haters

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#58 OILERSORDEATH
November 24 2013, 05:28PM
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OILERSORDEATH wrote:

Wow yeah such gems, wonder why such an offensive juggernaut can just yet again score 1 goal in a game. Top notch drafting, really Impressive.

In regards to Vancouver's drafting

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#59 Rocket
November 24 2013, 05:29PM
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Does anyone here watch St. Louis games a lot? I'd like to know how Paajarvi is doing from someone who actually watches Blues games.

His stats are not great but I don't know exactly why? He's a smart defensive forward so I would have thought he would fit in with a Hitchcock style of play.

I'm glad The Oilers got Perron though and I would make that trade again in a second but I always kinda liked Paajarvi and wouldn't mind seeing him do well.

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#60 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:57PM
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Darrell wrote:

I am an Atlanta Braves fan - making the playoffs is not enough anymore when you continually find a way to screw it up. The beauty is at least the Brave won once while the Canucks continue to disappoint.

Making the playoffs is certainly not the ultimate goal but it sure beats the alternative.

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#61 Johnnydapunk
November 24 2013, 03:26PM
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Rob... wrote:

My fear with Belov is that he'll continue to improve and get snatched up by a contender instead of re-signing with the Oilers.

That's my fear as well. With Belov as he doesn't seem to be interviewed much, it's hard to gauge what his mindset is. He is getting a lot of minutes and seems to have been left to just worry about hockey so that might work in the Oilers favour. He seems like a fairly principled guy, the signing of one year deals to keep his hunger to have to play for a new contract and also keep his options open is different, but kind of refreshing.

I think we are just starting to see him come into his game, he has a surprisingly nasty streak in him which has only just started to come out. This video from the KHL is what happens when you piss him off :-)

Belov reaction

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#62 Jon
November 24 2013, 03:38PM
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Did no one catch the quote from David Perron when asked why he's having more success this year??

His answer was "I'm shooting more than I ever have".

There you have it.

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#63 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:10PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Keep ignoring reality if you like.

At least 10 of those teams drafted better players and only 2 teams in that draft had more than 1 first round pick.

St Louis came away with Lars Eller and David Perron and the Oilers came away with Sam Gagner and a fist full of nothing.

Your hindsight is astonishing.

Verifiable facts are verifiable.

The Oilers had 3 shots at hitting pay dirt in what is deemed to be the best draft, perhaps, in NHL history and came away with Sam Gagner.

While only having 2 first round picks and drafting lower than the Oilers, the Blues came away with two very good NHL players.

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#64 Nimrod
November 24 2013, 07:51PM
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Perron has been a pleasant surprise, but his offensive numbers will probably come down. I suspect Eakins likes him because unlike many of the other top six forwards there is some sandpaper to his game, even if he's not the biggest guy.

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#65 Larry
November 24 2013, 10:04PM
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bulldog12 wrote:

Who's this DSF guy? He's an idiot and to respond to him is a waste of time, space and lowers yourself to his intellect.

He's an employee of Oiler Nation to keep things interesting. But, yes, I agree, let's ignore him.

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#66 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
November 25 2013, 09:22AM
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What a trade by MacT, St Louis was thoroughly fleeced. Their backs were to the (cap) wall, but it's good to see a GM capable of making a calculated move against a team backed into a corner. Usually it's the Oilers between the hammer and the anvil.

The Smid trade is still a head scratcher though, ol' silver fox must be confident he can get Belov to re-sign.

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#67 Walter Sobchak
November 25 2013, 09:23AM
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While Perron is an obvious win for MacTavish, Like most Oilers fans I'm still left wanting more!

While Perron was a win, it has little consultation to myself this year.

MacTavish talk at the beginning of the year just seems to be complete lip service.

I want more, hell, I demand more after 8 years of inept management!!

Get us two top pairing defesmen, Two centermen and a third & forth line for Pete sake.

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#68 Fresh Mess
November 24 2013, 01:36PM
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David S wrote:

I'm continually amazed that some people who rely on stats are confounded by the possibility that a pro athlete might do something different or change something about his game to acquire massive improvements (legally I mean - not "The Armstrong way"). Being at the top of your sport doesn't mean you can't always strive to get better. Sometimes in the course of doing so you discover something simple that puts you on a new level. That's one of the coolest things about sport.

On the other hand, Perron's improvement might be the result of something as inane as a training camp conversation like this:

Eakins: Hey David, you ever thought about shooting more? Might help.

Perron: Nope. But I'll give it a try and see what happens.

*High fives*

exactly the point I have tried to make with advanced stat cultists.

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#69 RexLibris
November 24 2013, 02:58PM
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Wasn't it the Perron trade where MacTavish referenced his "stats guys" absolutely loving Perron?

And Perron himself stated repeatedly when he came here that he was looking forward to playing in a more aggressive, offensively-oriented scheme.

So to tap into the other thread that is going on about the Oilers' draft miscues in that 2007 class, perhaps when it comes to professional analytics the Oilers are beginning to get things right?

With regards to the draft hindsight argument, this is virtually always the case. Ken Holland said that if he and his group were really so smart to recognize what kind of players Datsyuk or Zetterberg would become, why did they wait so long to pick them?

The draft begins with identifying and prioritizing talent, but it includes healthy doses of development and sheer luck (Joey Hishon and Alexei Cherepanov are two quick examples of the latter).

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#70 Fresh Mess
November 24 2013, 05:30PM
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Rocket wrote:

What about Grebeshkov?

I mostly agree with you though. MacT (so far) has been better than Tambellini.

But still, Grebeshkov? What was MacT thinking?

Grebeshkov and Smid were horrendous moves.

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#71 OilFanInVan
November 24 2013, 10:31PM
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@Larry

You nailed it Larry. Paid trolls are here to keep more and more posts happening and thus keep the only revenue a site like this can generate (advertising) coming. Advertisers only pay for page views and comments... This happens on almost every large advertising only revenue based website.

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#72 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
November 25 2013, 08:39AM
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All I know is that I picked him up in the 18th round of my fantasy draft because of a comment on the trade article that predicted an uptick in his production.

Couldn't be happier.

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#73 DSF
November 24 2013, 01:02PM
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some Oiler trade chatter from Garrioch:

"Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish has been calling around to get a blueliner to replace D Ladislav Smid, who was dealt down the street to Calgary.

The Oilers need help everywhere, however, teams are asking for young players in return. “They want to do something but they overrate their players which means the prices are high,” said a league executive.

He should be able to get a top pick for UFA RW Ales Hemsky"

http://www.ottawasun.com/2013/11/23/phillys-captain-claude-giroux-set-for-sochi-olympics

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#74 michael
November 24 2013, 02:55PM
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Like where Perron is heading. Partly due to the fact he is on the 3rd line matched against lesser opponents. Also playing with a center who knows where his bread is buttered. You think Gordon has not been a revelation since he came in lieu of Belanger.

Perron also has seen first unit PP time that is choice. I really see a huge upside to Perron in Eakins system. His skill set matched with his desire for the puck. A grade hockey sense. His shooting from anywhere and we'll see what happens is what we need more of from all of the Oilers.

Perron and Yakupov and eating up Eakins coaching and its starting to pay dividends on the ice.

3 wins in a row does not a season make. But it feels good to see the Oilers not looking like keystone cops for a change.

Chicago tomorrow night is going to be fun. 7-6 Edmonton in a SO win.

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#75 Ron Burgundy
November 24 2013, 03:09PM
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Have been a fan of Perron for years and have owned him on various fantasy teams, so have watched him where I could and followed his stats almost daily for several years. My feeling on his increased production is that there are two reasons: 1. System. 2. Health. Even in Hitch's defense-focussed system Perron went on some good runs, but these have in the past frequently been interrupted by injury. St Louis is so deep that this may have led to Perron losing his spot on a line when he came back, though I don't know that for sure. All I know is, I cheered out loud when I heard about the deal, and he has not disappointed. More please.

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#76 Darrell
November 24 2013, 06:23PM
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DSF wrote:

Well, Vancouver did go to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals 3 years ago.

Drafting, badly, hardly compensates.

Vancouver 3, Oilers 7 and Calgary went 8 years ago with no sign of life for any of the franchises. I will take the draft picks at this point but you're right enough is enough. Why not use some of that knowledge to support the Oilers as it would be freshing for once ...

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#77 speeds
November 24 2013, 06:42PM
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At the time, I wasn't a big fan of the trade - I thought EDM overpaid in adding a 2nd to the deal. Not saying I thought it was a massive overpayment, but a bit of an overpayment nonetheless. Looks like I was wrong at this point, but the concerns I had - Paajarvi was cheaper, under team control for longer, and less perceived injury concern - haven't gone away after 24 games. Perron has been a better player than I was expecting, but I think this article shows he's been a better player than anyone could reasonably have expected, with the possible exception of MacT and his staff since they traded for him - not unreasonable to think they thought there was untapped potential in Perron.

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#78 acg5151
November 24 2013, 06:44PM
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@DSF

My point - even the best drafting teams make mistakes.

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#79 bulldog12
November 24 2013, 06:56PM
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Negative negative negative You guys are really getting tiring Try coming up with something positive or remotely intelligent.

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#80 pkam
November 24 2013, 07:04PM
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DSF wrote:

Oh, like all teams, they make mistakes but there is a reason they've made the playoffs for 7 years in a row. (might not this season).

To what do you attribute their ongoing success?

4th overall in 1998 then 2nd and 3rd overall in 1999, and finally after almost 10 years.

Base on this precedence, the Oilers will make the playoff 7 years in a row in around 2017 - 2024.

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#81 Mikey
November 24 2013, 07:26PM
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DSF wrote:

Here's an idea...

Post something positive about a team that has missed the playoffs 8 years in a row....

That doesn't have a player in the top 30 in scoring despite drafting in the top 10 year after year.

That has below average goaltending....

That has close to the worst centre depth in the league....

That has ZERO top pairing D...

Go!

Regarding no player in top 30 for scoring. Neither does PHX, COL, BOS, TO, MON, NYR. Which are playoff teams. I never did check non playoff teams.

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#82 Rocket
November 24 2013, 07:29PM
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@Mikey

Sweet optimism! I wish I could stay that positive about this team. Keep up the good work.

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#83 dobiezeke
November 24 2013, 09:25PM
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@DSF

Both have put up exactly the same amount of Stanley Cup banners in the rafters.

No one remembers the "first loser"...

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#84 Slats
November 24 2013, 10:48PM
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Nimrod wrote:

Perron has been a pleasant surprise, but his offensive numbers will probably come down. I suspect Eakins likes him because unlike many of the other top six forwards there is some sandpaper to his game, even if he's not the biggest guy.

Perhaps when Perron cools off Yaks will start to heat up . . .

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#85 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
November 25 2013, 09:29AM
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Fresh Mess wrote:

Grebeshkov and Smid were horrendous moves.

Another way of looking at it...........Anyone who has ever been in a position that calls for high level decision making based on a multitude of variables knows and understands that it's not a perfect science.

Putting aside your perception of the results...which is 100% hindsight......when you're in the position of the decision maker, in real time, part of the equation is the calculation of the percentage chance that you'll be right/correct in your assessment.....you have two fundamental choices....One...do nothing.....Two....take a risk.....which is what decision making is...AND....look for ways to mitigate that risk.......

Grebeshkov was risk mitigation.....one of either he or Belov needed to pan out in order for the decision to sign both to be deemed a success.

As for Smid...you can debate the return value of the players coming back...but it seems clear that Smid, as much as we liked his character, was not a part of the system the Oilers are building....in other words, he was not a fit....doesn't mean he's not a good player......beyond this..all else is conjecture and opinion...which is fine....

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#86 Walter Sobchak
November 25 2013, 03:20PM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

Dubnyk named one of the NHL's 3 stars of the week:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=693003&navid=DL|NHL|home

So… I guess everyone predicting he had eternally cratered was being reactionary… who would have guessed?

Ya, ok.

~After wins vs the powerhouse Blue Jackets & the Flames, this set Dubnyk up for the real test which was the Panthers! ~

If Dubnyks the answer, then why are the Oilers looking so hard for a replacement?

Don't answer that, I'll come back to that after December & January.

You do this Rom, I tell you Paajarvi is junk, you throw stats at me, I tell you Hartikainen is junk you still throw stats.

Tell me something you know that the coaching staff & management don't know? Cause you are a complete miss on both Paajarvi & Hartkainen despite what the eyes tell everyone.

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#87 Woodguy
November 24 2013, 02:27PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Both good points.

As to the second one, I had a similar thought last night, but when I looked at Perron's shot locations chart it didn't look to me like his shot quality has suffered at all.

Jon,

NHL.com has Perron with 80 shots and the SSS has him at 37 shots.

What am I missing?

Also,

Nice post.

Saw you and Tyler tweeting about it last night.

Got me thinking about last game and Perron passed up more than one "good pass" to Gordon in the slot to take a low percentage from closer to the corner.

Wonder if he's doing that by design or just "Feeling it" so he keeps hammering away.

9 shots last game out of the total 35 the Oilers took.

Love it.

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#88 Hockey Problems
November 24 2013, 03:43PM
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Johnnydapunk wrote:

That's my fear as well. With Belov as he doesn't seem to be interviewed much, it's hard to gauge what his mindset is. He is getting a lot of minutes and seems to have been left to just worry about hockey so that might work in the Oilers favour. He seems like a fairly principled guy, the signing of one year deals to keep his hunger to have to play for a new contract and also keep his options open is different, but kind of refreshing.

I think we are just starting to see him come into his game, he has a surprisingly nasty streak in him which has only just started to come out. This video from the KHL is what happens when you piss him off :-)

Belov reaction

That's Awesome. I can't wait for see more of this from him.

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#89 D-Unit
November 24 2013, 03:47PM
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@S cottV

I'm not saying Eakins is without fault for where this team is at, but I am very doubtful many other coaches would have the Oilers in much of a different position. One thing I do fault him for is that he assumed he was dealing with a team who understood the fundamentals of playing NHL Hockey. Any coach coming to a team who has been through as many coaches as the Oil have recently should have picked up on that. Ralph wasn't the guy to be coaching this team either. Let's face it, the only reason he was ever head coach was because Steve T didn't want to do any hard work finding a new coach last year, and didn't want to look like a bad guy.

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#90 DSF
November 24 2013, 04:53PM
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D-Unit wrote:

Why no mention of how the Wild were busy picking Colton Gillies? Really, he had 10 points for the Wild, he turned out great, and was only picked 10 spots ahead of Perron.

Yeah, he was picked right after the Oilers picked Alex Plante.

Gillies has 157 NHL games to his credit while Plante is getting his head kicked in the Austrian league (24GP 1G 7P -11).

Remember, the Oilers didn't draft David Perron.

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#91 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:32PM
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OILERSORDEATH wrote:

Wow yeah such gems, wonder why such an offensive juggernaut can just yet again score 1 goal in a game. Top notch drafting, really Impressive.

Vancouver's drafting is among the worst in the league...has been for years.

Their lack of scoring this year is a bit of a head scratcher since they have some of the best possession numbers in the league.

http://www.extraskater.com/teams/on-ice?type=total&sort=corsi_pct

That their PP is also tied for 29th best is also a big issue for them.

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#92 DSF
November 24 2013, 05:40PM
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pkam wrote:

It is really hard to not recognize the great work of the Canucks' pro scout. Just look at Zack Kassian, Keith Ballard and David Booth.

Oh, like all teams, they make mistakes but there is a reason they've made the playoffs for 7 years in a row. (might not this season).

To what do you attribute their ongoing success?

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#93 camdog
November 25 2013, 09:45AM
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Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

What a trade by MacT, St Louis was thoroughly fleeced. Their backs were to the (cap) wall, but it's good to see a GM capable of making a calculated move against a team backed into a corner. Usually it's the Oilers between the hammer and the anvil.

The Smid trade is still a head scratcher though, ol' silver fox must be confident he can get Belov to re-sign.

I'm starting to follow Mact's logic here, not saying that I agree, but I understand.

Mact thinks that Klefbomb will be as tough as Smid and ready for next season. Between Belov and N.Shultz the Smid role became redundant. The organization doesn't think Smid is good enough with the puck and not tough enough to warrant keeping around for another 3 seasons at his projected salary and subsequent cap hit.

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#94 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 25 2013, 10:09AM
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Dubnyk named one of the NHL's 3 stars of the week:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=693003&navid=DL|NHL|home

So… I guess everyone predicting he had eternally cratered was being reactionary… who would have guessed?

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#95 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
November 25 2013, 10:44AM
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@war

I'll give him credit for chasing Schneider and Bishop, at least he recognizes the weakness in net. Was it ever revealed what Gillis was asking for? Schneider would look great between the pipes in orange and blue right now, and this season would probably have started much differently.

Plus my sister is a massive Vancouver fan, I'd have loved to be able to rub her nose in it.

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#96 the tikk
November 24 2013, 11:55AM
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Admit it, the resemblance is stunning:

http://www.fanpop.com/clubs/hyenas-from-lion-king/images/30679343/title/ed-photo

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#97 @stevegregson02
November 24 2013, 02:35PM
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@jonathonwillis

Another thing - Perron has played RW last three games with Smyth on left side. In same time frame he has 19SOG. Previous two games he had 6SOG on Left side. Maye he's better suited for right side of the ice in Ozone.

I think the Hitchcock system was a factor. Think about this. You cycle puck predominately on one side of ice. To do this effectively you need three men, two in boards, one in slot. If Perron or another Blue were to fire the puck from sharp angle after gaining forecheck and cycle position - and miss net, glance goalie - puck goes ino opposite corner where single D man for offense is most likely outmanned by D zone coverage.

I know Perrons shot quality hasn't been hurt per say, but I believeany of those random side of the net prayers he throws up a game would have been a no no in a cycle system based on size, strength an positioning to wear down the opposition.

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#98 DSF
November 24 2013, 04:49PM
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pkam wrote:

I know, and I also know the head amateur scout Kevin Prendergast for that draft has been replaced.

You know Canucks picked Patrick White just ahead of Perron, right? And you know that the Canucks picked Cody Hodgson ahead of Erik Karlsson and Jordan Eberle, right?

And you know that head amateur scout is still with the Canucks organization, right?

Yeah their amateur scouting has been a weakness forever although Edler (3rd round) Bieksa (5th round), Hansen (9th round),

Their pro scouting makes up for that pretty well by finding undrafted free agents or useful players on the waiver wire.

Alex Burrows, Chris Tanev and Eddie Lack were undrafted treasures while they've also picked up Chris Higgins, Mike Santorelli, Ryan Stanton and others for peanuts.

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#99 A-Mc
November 24 2013, 05:39PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

David, if it's so simple why doesn't it happen more often?

I've looked over the 15 years of data the NHL has, and as far as I can tell no other player has seen this kind of jump in his shots totals at this age .

If it were just a matter of a conversation in training camp, you'd think we'd see this more often, no? After all, Dallas Eakins isn't exactly the only coach in the NHL who wants his players to shoot more.

I'm not sure what you do for work, David, but do you have a conversation with your boss and then decide to be twice as productive as you have ever been in your life? Is it really that easy?

Your view seems like a gross oversimplification, something that you're relying on because it's a hell of a lot easier to say 'oh, he just decided to be twice as good' when someone asks 'what happened' than it is to try and answer the question in any kind of meaningful way.

Actually this happens all the time in the work place but it's staged a little different.

People can only do so much, but if given the green light, they can focus on one aspect of their job to exceedingly increase production in that category.

In Perron's case, the oilers may have given him the green light to focus on a few things that he wasn't allowed the freedom to do in STL.

He isn't taking his normal work accomplishments and then doubling them, because that would likely be impossible. He's more than likely taking FROM one aspect of his game and refocusing in another. Because the refocus has been offense and offense is king, we notice it more.

A poster earlier talked about systems *heavily Defensive) and another posted about possession. Maybe these are aspects that have suffered to make his Off. So much better.

Just a thought.

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#100 DSF
November 24 2013, 06:11PM
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Darrell wrote:

Agreed - the problem is that a good regular season means nothing if you lose in the first round every year. We would kill for a first round exit around here but drafting first is a pretty close second choice IMO as being Vancouver fan has to suck pretty bad too.

Well, Vancouver did go to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals 3 years ago.

Drafting, badly, hardly compensates.

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