MR. MACGREGOR'S PICKS

Lowetide
November 24 2013 07:39AM

Stu MacGregor's time as the scouting director for the Edmonton Oilers is now 6 summers deep, and we're getting a nice idea about where his team is getting value. Here's a look—by season—at the best draft picks by MBS outside the first round.

2008: TEEMU HARTIKAINEN

After hitting a home run in the first round (Jordan Eberle, 22nd overall) the Oilers didn't have a second or a third round selection. In the sixth round the club found big Teemu Hartikainen, who has played in 52 NHL games (and is currently having a nice season in the KHL). Oilers retain his rights, it is unknown when he'll return. Hartikainen certainly covered the draft bet placed on his with 2/3's of an NHL season.

2009: ANTON LANDER

Lander's basically the only player left from the 2009 entry draft (second round, 40th overall), and is having a solid year in Oklahoma City. Lander has played in 68 NHL games, but those came when he was unready and have given him the reputation of being a poor NHL option. His progress in the AHL has been impressive, and there's a good chance he will carve out an NHL career.

2010: MARTIN MARINCIN

Marincin was selected 46th overall (second round) in a cluster of picks (4 in 30 selections) during the 2010 entry draft. Although he hasn't yet played in the NHL, Marincin's progress at the pro level has been impressive and he is likely to make his NHL debut in 2014.

2011:DILLON SIMPSON

The day Simpson was drafted, the scouting reports talked about skating and strength issues. Since then, Simpson has worked very hard to improve in all areas and at this point it's anyone guess as to where he'll land on the pro depth chart when he finally signs in 2014. The Oilers are suddenly deep on the back line, but Simpson's range of skills make him a player of some note.

Tobias Rieder and Martin Gernat are also developing well from this draft.

2012: JUJHAR KHAIRA

The 2012 draft has some nice things tracking, but it's early. Jujhar Khaira has followed up his strong NCAA season at Michigan Tech a year ago with solid two-way work in the WHL. Khaira is not a feature offensive player for Everett, and he has been injured, but there's no doubt his size, speed and skill have him heading in a good direction.

Mitchell Moroz and John McCarron are also players of interest from this draft.

It's too soon to tell for 2013, with Marco Roy, Bogdan Yakimov and Greg Chase all in the running. But, it's early.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Patience is required when it comes to prospect development, and defenseman take time. The Oilers talent pipeline should be sending some impressive talent to the NHL starting later this season, and the Oilers may be able to turn a few trades their way with the addition of one or more of these young prospects.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Ryan2
November 24 2013, 11:38AM
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While I agree that Prendergast did a below average job of drafting, you can't pin it solely on bad picks. Lack of a development system played a huge part in the weakness of the Oilers' system during those years as well. Sharing farm teams, farming players out to other organizations to save $$$, etc. are a big part of the reason the cupboards were so bare. It takes a few years for a player development system to start to churn out solid NHL contributors and the Oilers are a year or two away yet from seeing that happen IMHO.

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#52 Richter
November 24 2013, 11:41AM
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PRV was the right pick at the time. End of story. He was a top ranked European skater - only Hedman was ranked above him by Central Scouting. It was a surprise he fell that far. Maybe too bad he did in hindsight. But you can't blame the Oilers for picking him at tenth.

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#53 Thumby
November 24 2013, 11:47AM
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Stack Pad Save wrote:

Jeff Petry is the only late round player drafted by the Oilers who made their team. This means we got some possible problems:

1. scouting 2. player development 3. professional scouting

And bad luck...

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#54 Rob...
November 24 2013, 11:54AM
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THRNHJE wrote:

DSF is often negative and always biased, but he often has a lot of very valid points. Sometimes us fanboys have the fanboy goggles on and cant see that because his negativity towards our struggling team is often hyperbolic.

It is hilarious to me to see the props versus trash ratios now we are on a 3 game win streak compared to when we were on a 5 game lose streak. DSF sounded like just another of the guys who hated being an Oilers fan. At least he is consistent.

I think you're ignoring the points that have been made. DSF trolls by pointing out late draft gems and how the Oilers failed to pick them up, all while also ignoring all of the other teams that chose duds before these gems were seized by someone other than the Oilers.

DSF has shown enough intelligence over the years to make it clear that he is doing this on purpose. He knows how ridiculous his statements are, but makes them anyway to feed off of the response, just like the lowest of the trolls on youtube spouting the 'N-word' for the reaction.

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#55 Rama Lama
November 24 2013, 11:57AM
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A good AHL team with a focus on development should increase our chances of some of these players actually carving out a career.

Our focus on drafting should incorporate skill/physical play........instead of skill/speed. Our system is flush with small fast skilled players and it's good to see the focus change this last couple of years with Chase, Moroz, and Kharia added to the mix.

A couple of additional years of drafting bigger players should spell an end to our lust for Hobbits.

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#56 Thumby
November 24 2013, 12:01PM
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Butters wrote:

I've gone snowblind.

I agree - my retinas are burning again!

LOL- white type on an almost white background is a "no no" they teach in junior high graphic design...unless you are using varnish effects (which do not apply well onto my monitor)...

Come on LT - as DSF would say: "good grief!"

:D

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#57 Rob...
November 24 2013, 12:08PM
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Thumby wrote:

I agree - my retinas are burning again!

LOL- white type on an almost white background is a "no no" they teach in junior high graphic design...unless you are using varnish effects (which do not apply well onto my monitor)...

Come on LT - as DSF would say: "good grief!"

:D

Weren't the nation reigns handed over to Kent Wilson? Place the blame squarely where it belongs... on the Flames fan.

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#58 Thumby
November 24 2013, 12:11PM
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Rob... wrote:

Weren't the nation reigns handed over to Kent Wilson? Place the blame squarely where it belongs... on the Flames fan.

hmmmm, the flamer is probably doing this to us on purpose...stop the agony Kent!

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#59 DSF
November 24 2013, 12:32PM
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THRNHJE wrote:

DSF is often negative and always biased, but he often has a lot of very valid points. Sometimes us fanboys have the fanboy goggles on and cant see that because his negativity towards our struggling team is often hyperbolic.

It is hilarious to me to see the props versus trash ratios now we are on a 3 game win streak compared to when we were on a 5 game lose streak. DSF sounded like just another of the guys who hated being an Oilers fan. At least he is consistent.

I think the real hyperbole here is calling Stu "Magnificent" when there is no evidence to support any claim that he is even above average.

We need to remember that he has been a part of the Oilers scouting staff for 13 years and the Head of Amateur Scouting since 2009.

I also think it's important to remember that any team's amateur scouting department is heavily influenced by the team's GM and sometimes (see Nail Yakupov for reference) by the team ownership.

So, I believe any analysis of success or failure at the draft really needs to lie at the feet of the GM since any recommendations for draft picks must pass across that desk and, of course, he is ultimately responsible for the scouting staff.

So, if we look at the players selected during Kevin Lowe's tenure as GM we get a different picture.

Here are the Oiler selections during the Lowe regime, starting in 2000, that are currently playing in the NHL or who played 150 games.

2000 - Brad Winchester, Matt Lombardi

2001 - Ales Hemsky

2002 - Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene

2003 - Marc Pouliot, JF Jacques, Zach Stortini, Kyle Brodziak

2004 - Devan Dubnyk

2005 - Andrew Cogliano

2006 - Jeff Petry, Theo Peckham

2007 - Sam Gagner

2008 - Jordan Eberle

2009 - Magnus Paajarvi

2010 - Taylor Hall

2011 - RNH

2012 - Nail Yakupov

Now, lets have a look at players drafted by team's managed by Dean Lombardi over the same period:

WITH SJS

2000 - zero

2001 - Marcel Goc, Christian Ehrhoff, Ryan Clowe

2002 - Zero

2003 - Milan Michaelek, Steve Bernier, Matt Carle, Joe Pavelski

2004 - Tomas Griess, Torrey Mitchell

2005 - Devin Setoguchi, Marc Eduard Vlasic

NOW LAK

2006 - Jonathan Bernier, Trevor Lewis

2007 - Thomas Hickey, Wayne Simmonds, Alec Martinez, Dwight King

2008- Drew Doughty, Slava Voynov, Andrei Lokitonov

2009 - Brayden Schenn, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan

2010 - Tyler Toffoli

2011 - First pick in the draft was #49

2012 - Tanner Pearson has made his NHL debut but does not qualify yet.

2013 - First pick in the draft was #37 Valentin Zykov (24GP 30P QMJHL)

Now, if you look at the number of players drafted and still playing in the NHL you'll quickly see that Lombardi regime has drafted 24 players currently in the NHL while Lowe's regime has drafted only 13 despite the Oilers generally finishing much lower in the standings and having higher draft picks.

Just one more note, I think the abysmal failure of the 2003 draft when Lowe came up with almost nothing to Lombardi's 4 NHL players in a strong draft and the sketchy 2009 draft when Lombardi came away with 3 NHL players might explain a big part of the disparity between the teams.

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#60 andrewmk20
November 24 2013, 12:51PM
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@DSF

I don't think this is just about Stu MacGregor though. Do you know how the Sharks develop their players? Because Edmonton seems to fail at that more than they do at the draft table. Bunz was WHL goaltender of the year and many of their prospects in the last 4-5 years have had strong junior careers and have sputtered when they turn pro and the Oilers become more involved in their development. Detroit, San Jose, and LA have done a great job for a long time drafting and developing. I'm curious as to the methods they employ that are different than Edmonton's.

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#61 DSF
November 24 2013, 01:26PM
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andrewmk20 wrote:

I don't think this is just about Stu MacGregor though. Do you know how the Sharks develop their players? Because Edmonton seems to fail at that more than they do at the draft table. Bunz was WHL goaltender of the year and many of their prospects in the last 4-5 years have had strong junior careers and have sputtered when they turn pro and the Oilers become more involved in their development. Detroit, San Jose, and LA have done a great job for a long time drafting and developing. I'm curious as to the methods they employ that are different than Edmonton's.

Well, we do know the Oilers have a history of rushing their players to the NHL before they are ready.

I think that's the major difference and you can see it in players like Couture who spent a year in the AHL while Sam Gagner was thrown right into the deep end.

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#62 YFC Prez
November 24 2013, 01:36PM
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Richter wrote:

PRV was the right pick at the time. End of story. He was a top ranked European skater - only Hedman was ranked above him by Central Scouting. It was a surprise he fell that far. Maybe too bad he did in hindsight. But you can't blame the Oilers for picking him at tenth.

Good point.

Remember when the three rookies came into the oilers system. Hall and ebbs have excelled thus far and PRV ( who was said to be the most nhl ready and had a half decent rookie campaign ) has almost fallen into the abyss.

I'm not sure what the oilers did wrong with the player or if it was just bad luck. I agree though. If the oil had passed on prv I would have been pissed at the time.

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#63 YFC Prez
November 24 2013, 01:38PM
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DSF wrote:

Well, we do know the Oilers have a history of rushing their players to the NHL before they are ready.

I think that's the major difference and you can see it in players like Couture who spent a year in the AHL while Sam Gagner was thrown right into the deep end.

Gagner is one if the most miss used assets the oilers have had in recent years. He has turned into a half decent player in spite of the oilers IMO.

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#64 PutzStew
November 24 2013, 02:27PM
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YFC Prez wrote:

Gagner is one if the most miss used assets the oilers have had in recent years. He has turned into a half decent player in spite of the oilers IMO.

Even though I'm not a fan of his, I think hemsky fits into this mold as well.

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#65 THRNHJE
November 24 2013, 02:35PM
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@DSF

The hyperbolic negativity was in general, in this specific case I am with you, our drafting capabilities have been deplorable.

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#66 Stack Pad Save
November 24 2013, 02:43PM
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Thumby wrote:

And bad luck...

Don't you think well run organizations make their own luck? Look at Chicago and Boston right now and other teams such as Detroit. They are consistently adding to their teams with late round picks. Maybe a lot of this is that the teams are good so that they have time to develop their talent in the minors and are patient. Maybe they are better at scouting. Maybe they are better at player development. But you cannot tell me they are just plain luckier. Luck might be the difference between 2 or 3 late round gems, but these team have like 5 or 6.

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#67 michael
November 24 2013, 03:00PM
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Could we at least make the previous a little darker so we could find it. This back ground bites. Could they have put some real snow that we see on the streets on the back ground. That oatmeal like crud we all hate that we all need an suv to get through.

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#68 He Who Knows
November 24 2013, 03:30PM
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Stu is not as magnificent as people say. A lot of his later picks (other than the 1st overall no brainers) have yet to or ever pan out. Also hit the gym Stu.

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#69 pkam
November 24 2013, 04:05PM
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How about Toni Rajala of 2009? He has been amazing before we released his contract.

How about Brandon Davidson and Kristians Pelss of 2010?

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#70 PutzStew
November 24 2013, 04:07PM
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THRNHJE wrote:

The hyperbolic negativity was in general, in this specific case I am with you, our drafting capabilities have been deplorable.

Dear DSF

Although I enjoy you posts and usually agree with you, I am not above realizing that I hold some faults, one of which is my poor English skills.

Your on an Oilers Blog. Please speak stupider so I don't have to google words like hyperbolic.

Thank you

PS I 100% agree with you in your argument. There should be not satisfaction from anyone with in this organization on the job they have done. If they had done it there job with even slight success, this team have been, nor would they still be the worst team in the league.

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#71 Woogie63
November 24 2013, 06:53PM
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Another way to look at it....

2014/15 add

Arco to 2c (Gagner 2RW) Harti to 3LW Lander to 4C Pitlick to 4 RW Klefblom to D5 Marincin to D7

That would make 13 draft picks on the big club... Not bad

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#72 Saytalk
November 24 2013, 08:04PM
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I just assumed Simpson and Musil were picked by the old boys on the bus club and not by any diligent work of the amateur scouting staff (if they do any such work). It's just as well; given MacGregor's poor record of picks outside of the first round, the franchise is getting a poor return either way.

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#73 Manfly
November 25 2013, 07:46AM
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Saytalk wrote:

I just assumed Simpson and Musil were picked by the old boys on the bus club and not by any diligent work of the amateur scouting staff (if they do any such work). It's just as well; given MacGregor's poor record of picks outside of the first round, the franchise is getting a poor return either way.

but Musil and Simpson were actually scouted.....really!! and don't forget, similar to when we took Pitlick at #31, Musil seemed at the time to be the BPA at #31, so we took him. how were the old boys club to know he couldn't skate??

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