ONE-TRICK PONY

Robin Brownlee
November 26 2013 07:23PM

I'm not sure where the Edmonton Oilers would rank if we rated NHL teams one through 30 based on the offensive skill and prowess of their of top-six forwards, but I'm confident they'd sit higher than 30th or 29th or 24th, which is where they've finished in the standings these past three seasons.

While the Oilers stack up pretty well – on paper if not in actual on-ice production -- in top-six flash and dash with the ability to send Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Ales Hemsky and Sam Gagner out the gate, they are so lacking in other dimensions you get what we have here as they head for Nashville with a 7-16-2 record.

If opponents match Edmonton's level of offensive skill on the top two lines – and there are several teams that can – the Oilers are screwed because if they can't coax teams into a track meet or a no-hitter, they don’t have another way to get the job done, to win games.

The Oilers aren't big enough or gritty enough to win games that turn into a physical battle. They aren't mentally tough enough to prevail in a test of wills. They aren't remotely close to defensively sound enough to lock things down in tight games. They lack gamesmanship. They don't have a goaltender who can consistently outperform the guy in the crease at the other end of the rink.

It's been said countless times. We've seen it play out time after time the past three seasons, including last night in a 5-1 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks. The mix is wrong. Plenty of reasonably skilled and undersized forwards, not much else to bring to the table. This is not stop-the-presses stuff for fans, media or GM Craig MacTavish. All this we know.

THIS JUST IN . . .

Knowing what's lacking, obviously, is one thing. Doing something about it, changing the mix of personnel and adding different dimensions to the meat of the roster, not the fringes, is quite another because MacTavish hasn't managed to pull it off so far with an eighth straight year out of the playoffs on the horizon.

Until MacTavish does that, until coach Dallas Eakins has a different roster of players from which to assemble his line-up, anything he does right now is, to borrow a threadbare cliché, akin to shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. This team, as assembled, isn't going to compete for the playoffs. Not this season. Not next season. It's not going to happen.

Again, this is not a revelation. That, I suspect, is what frustrates Oiler fans most. Does MacTavish need more time to change the make-up of this team? Sure he does. He's been on the job as GM for months, not years. Fact or not, that's a tough sell for fans who've been faithfully buying tickets for decades. They've been more than patient.

That isn't MacTavish's fault, but it most certainly is his problem. Changing the make-up of this team, assembling the right mix, is either going to take a lot more time or the kind of "bold moves" MacT talked about when he took the job. That, in the end, is going to mean taking a player or two from that talented group of forwards and turning it into the necessary pieces.

Time, I'd suggest, is not on MacTavish's side. That leaves bold. My sense is that, while nobody wants to part with one of thoroughbreds up front, they've seen enough of the same damn thing for years on end to have the stomach for it if the return is right. Until that happens, this one-trick pony of a team isn’t going anywhere, except in circles. It's a carousel of false hope.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

Aceb4a1816f5fa09879a023b07d1a9b4
A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.
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#101 Pucker
November 27 2013, 01:52PM
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I don't know whose fault it is - the most frustrating thing I see when watching one of their games is the amount of time spent in the Defensive Zone vs Offensive Zone.

I think they're getting the puck out better this season but it's still coming right back in.

A couple high end defencemen would change the balance a little but if they can't keep possession in the attacking zone, there are going to be some tired and frustrated players by the end of the game.

Thus, we don't have a very desirable market free agents; thus, we're back in that Catch-22.

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#102 Drowning in Oil
November 27 2013, 03:09PM
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I dont really think people grasp how far ahead of Buffalo we really are. Do you people not realize we are 5 points ahead of them. What the hell are people bitching about. That is 2 regulation wins and a overtime loss. We are on the right track.

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#103 A-Mc
November 27 2013, 04:17PM
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Pucker wrote:

Another frustration is the Oiler's lose if a team pressures them.

They looked good against Florida and Columbus because they were allowed time to handle the puck.

Calgary, I'm not sure. Might have been just a difference in talent there.

Chicago was on them like a dirty shirt, which created bad passes/turnovers. I think the body checking has very little to do with it. It's just pressure.

You make a good point. As soon as the Oilers are pressured, they start doing no-look chips off the boards just to clear the zone. A Significant amount of the time, it results in a turn over with the puck coming right back in.

Instead of taking that extra split second to look at where they are tossing the puck, they blindly turn it over repeatedly.

Although - being able to maintain possession when someone is on your Can, has a lot to do with size and strength. If you're out muscled, your best bet IS to bail it before you're pressured.. SO size does play a role to some degree.

I would definitely say that the no-look chip outs are a bad habit that the Oil need to work on.

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#104 S cottV
November 27 2013, 04:29PM
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Rama Lama wrote:

I think that most fans are resigned to the fact that until the Oilers land a big tough puck moving defensemen with a positive track record, nothing will change.

The real problem is is there one of those defensemen available? I suggest not......and even if there was, we would have to give up two or three top end assets to get him. All this means we would now have a stud defensemen and now be short in other positions. The net gain would be neutral and now the fans would be just as pissed off.

There is no trade solution so the only logical solution would be to get a UFA and overpay, .......and then hope that your drafting provided exactly what you need.

We can only hope Darnell Nurse is the next coming of Chris Pronger!!

I've said it before and got trashed but if somehow Phaneuf and the Leafs dont fully connect and there is some way to get him to take a little less to play at home for a run at the cup - maybe something to look at? I know there may be apparent baggage but what other established top pairing d man is around that wouldnt mind living in Edmonton - and would fight for a deep seeded home cause? Falls under MacT's take a risk program - for sure. But - if you coach some of the giveaways and bad hits, out of his game and maybe a little of the wrong attitude (has a lot of the right attitude) - he is a legit home grown stud d man. Problem is - he's playing too good right now and the Leafs may pay most of the price being asked to keep him.

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#105 Rod from Viking
November 27 2013, 06:02PM
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S cottV wrote:

Agreed - he competes but is not at a top 2 lines level, Gordon more upside in the 3rd rotation and Arcobello is not really a 4th line centreman kind of guy. He probably deserves to play on demonstrated merit but where?

There is no reason Arcobella can't be a fourth line center, put one of the Ryans on his left side and I think he would do just fine, he wins face-offs, cycles the puck well and is an excellent penalty killer. The fourth lines job is to create energy,keep the puck in the other teams end so you don't get scored on and of course give the other lines a rest.

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#106 madjam
November 27 2013, 07:08PM
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Mact. problem number one along with the person who hired him to be GM . His vision and results have lead to where we are today - going even further backwards . Howson not the answer either . You have waited close to 8 years for this club assembly to perform , yet when you get a new Gm that takes you further backwards you say to give him more time ? Does not make any sense to me .

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#107 John Kirsch
November 27 2013, 08:03PM
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Our top players could learn from watching Toews and Kane "compete"; those are hockey players who play at the highest level night in and night out, both top (1-3) picks respectively.

Toews in IMO is the modern version of Messier, world class skill combined with world class leadership and Kane's offensive skills are on a level near Gretzky, Lemieux and Crosby. They play (and their teammates) with an intensity not exhibited by this current group (top picks 1-2) Oilers.

Again it all comes back to talent analysis by Oilers management (GM, coach, scouts, advisers etc...)as to the right "mix" of talent to be successful. Very good offensively gifted talent is what we have, but bad chemistry as well, and that translates into mediocrity. I would take a Backes, Brown type of player in a heartbeat over a Hopkins or Yak.

Eventually Edmonton will get it right!

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#108 Quicksilver ballet
November 28 2013, 04:50AM
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What we're watching here in Edmonton, has all the earmarks/issues of a should be AHL team. Glaring holes in key positions throughout this line up at unmistakable NHL ticket prices.

Can't see the Oilers ever being competitive again. Oilers were a cap team in October, even with this many holes at key positions on their roster. With overpays rampant throughout this current line up, only thing that would help, would be if Bettman allowed a 10 million northern (B market) living allowance dollars to compensate for this disadvantage. Or, get a much stronger management group in here, but we know this will never happen with all of Katz's buddies running things here.

Not a lot of room for optimism it appears...

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#109 oilerman53
November 26 2013, 09:26PM
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I would be looking at adding a couple veterans to the mix here in Edmonton. Florida might be willing to give away Jovanovski on the cheap. Get a few guys who know some of the tricks that a guy learns after spending more then a decade in the league. Smyth is a soldier and he can't teach a faceoff or the defense a few tricks. This team needs more personnel out there who know some of the intricacies the game within a game if you will.

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#110 camdog
November 26 2013, 10:01PM
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Gadzic wrote:

@Robin Brownlee

Not referring to your article in specifically, just a general frustration with some commentators. I have also heard you and Gregor on 1260 mention changing the make-up of the top six. While this might be necessary down the road, our top six will never matter if we do not have a defence that can get the puck up to our forwards. Getting "grit" is not the issue, the issue is we do not have enough proven NHL players and continue to trade NHL players for potential (i.e smid). But I agree, until this is addressed we are just arranging the seats on the titanic, which at this point is already resting at the bottom of the ocean.

In 2-3 months you may need to add Hemsky's name to the above post.

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#111 Butters
November 26 2013, 11:17PM
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madjam wrote:

NHL has fast become a war zone in front of opposition net , and also our own .That's where the bulk of every game is played/evolved . That's natural progression with the deluge of hockey players available today . Like football,you require a superior offence and defence lineman in todays upper eschilon . Neither of which we are very good at , or have the prerequisite size . Our results certainly bear that out . Gone are the days of skilled multiples of smaller softer forwards with questionable defensive liabilities beyond just their size . Lowe may be responsible for builing it , but MacT. is not going about correcting it or only partially recognizing it . Wish it were otherwise but 8 years of failure shows much needs to change or we will remain on same course .

Seriously? Do you not remember when Chelios played? I wish they collected a stat for how many crosschecks he gave out in a game. And the players on the receiving end weren't wearing Kevlar.

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#112 Hockey Problems
November 27 2013, 10:26AM
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@hardcore moiler

If the fLames had some talent ... ...

Nah!!!

Stil wouldn't watch.

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#113 S cottV
November 27 2013, 10:48AM
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Ryan2 wrote:

They compete less this year than they did last year under Kruger - that much is evident. This was MacT's first big mistake. From what I can see, the team is worse away from the puck and is not willing to play as hard as they did last year.

If MacT were smart, he would have said Kruger has another year while he assesses the staff instead of throwing his perceived boy wonder coach into the fire. Sure, a GM wants to bring in his guy, but if it was clear to most of us that the Oilers were not a playoff team then it should have been to the team's "braintrust" as well. At that point, keeping Kruger on for another season was the safest bet - if the team did better than expected you looked like a genius GM, and if it floundered as expected you could pin it on the coach.

Now MacT has backed himself into the corner where his team does not appear to buy into what the coach is selling AND is not competing as hard as they did for the old one.

Agreed 100% - should have left Krueger in charge, evaluate Eakins as an Associate and ease him in - if warranted. As for the line up, I really believe most of the problem originates from the centre ice position, the lack of a stud d man and general weakness in the back end. Oilers just dont get enough possession and zone time, which is largely driven by dominance in the middle and in the back end. Very hard for wingers to get going without strength in the middle and back end. Somebody posted the other day that "someone needs to feed RNH because he looks frail." That might be an overstatement and RNH has great potential - no question. But - right now, he is in over his head as a 1st line centreman and its killing Hall and Eberle. Same can be said in the second rotation with Gagner and when your first two lines have insufficient presence or dominance in the middle - the team is going to be in big trouble. Some of this has to do with injury recovery for both RNH and Gagner and had both been healthy from the get go - the Oilers would probably be in a little better shape right now. RNH isnt going anywhere and eventually he will fill out - gain strength and experience to fill the bill - but this might take another full year or two. What is needed is a high end centre ice tank to replace Gagner which makes him expendable. This tank might even take the place of RNH on the first line, to take some pressure off of him and to allow for more time to develop into a bona fide first line centreman. No way that you would trade Hall, Eberle and Perron - as they just need strength in the middle. RNH and Gordon stay and everyone else including Yakupov could be considered in a trade for a key centre ice man and a stud d man. Yak has great potential but someone has to go and he might command enough with some added frills to get what is really needed.

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#114 camdog
November 27 2013, 10:53AM
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@Robin Brownlee

If this team had another 2-3 Mark Arcobello's on their roster it's not out of the question that this team would lead the league in hits....lol It never fails to amaze me how educated hockey fans can be so blind to their own teams weaknesses.

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#115 paulie
November 27 2013, 12:39PM
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Two of the most frustrating aspects to me are, does this organization do a good job of evaluating players and two properly developing them? On both counts it is a solid no from me. Now it seems the fanbase is being set up again in regards to the development of this team to also ran to playoff team. I don't see a lot of positives going forward unless they are willing to part with one of the younger guys to get a defenceman. The biggest worry I have for next year will they rush Nurse into the league when I bet a good year in the AHL might be better for his development if the team is not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Either way, what a mess of a hockey team. Thank you Katz and Lowe for turning a once proud organization into a laughingstock.

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#116 Oier Al
November 27 2013, 03:07PM
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I think this is great write up on the Oiler situation.

I think MacT tried to make more moves this summer but could no or perhaps was told that there are untouchable beyond the Fab Five....

I mean Hemsky and Gagner should have been moved ,they are not difference makers on this team .I honestly think these are Lowes boys and that why GAGner gets extended, and Lowe showered $10 million on Hemsky two years ago... no team wants him and his contract.

The fact is that if you had a great improvment on the 3 and 4 lines, Defense , goal tending , your top six still play the same game,,, and they are top minute crunchers .. what you see is what you get.... their game will remain the same... and thats not good.

I have no problem moving Eberle, but it would be A CRIME .. to trade him while retaining Hemsky and Gagner.

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#117 crobar
November 27 2013, 10:34PM
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looks like the edmonton version of playoff action will be from dec.26 to jan.5...... followed by a 6 month debate on the draft. it's unreal that the buffoons in the capital city lick up the propaganda like candy floss!hey, at least they are making money.....

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#118 Saytalk
November 28 2013, 05:59AM
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Philadelphia is interested in Eberle and they have a few players that would improve the Oilers' mix. MacT should be talking to them.

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#119 Oil Blood
November 28 2013, 10:59AM
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@Oier Al

EDIT: You're done here, smart guy. Slip around the IP block 100 times if you want. Anything you post from another IP that gets in will be removed. Instead of making even a faint attempt to follow guidelines, you've decided to be an internet tough guy and run your mouth. Easy to do anonymously, right?

I'm still here. You're done. That's that.

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#120 BleedingOil
November 26 2013, 11:15PM
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Retsinnab5 wrote:

"Im my opinion, he can go because if hes not scoring big goals"

Have you watched the world juniors?

In the World Juniors he was more experienced and somewhat considered a "vet" by junior standards. Comparing his skill there where he was one of the best in one small league in Canada to being one of 600 players in the WORLD is a huge difference. He is playing against men now and is considerably younger than most of the league. It wasnt until his 5th year of Junior / Major Junior hockey that he stood head and shoulders above his peers. At that point in time, everyone he played against was less mature and experienced. How long will it take to see that here? The Oilers cannot afford to do that with all their young talent. Keep one player per line and make the rest expendable.

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#121 Reagan
November 27 2013, 07:34AM
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At the end of the day, this new Rogers deal will bring us more out of market games, and can now rely on one main broadcaster to bring us Oilers games. Currently TSN coverage is limited site to the fact they only have two national loops. Rogers can essentially broadcast over five of its feeds. This utilizing CityTV and CBC. If anything I wouldn't worry about the talent factor yet, TSN hopeful will ultimately jump ship, just like Darren Dreger did just a few years ago. I'm not going to complain on saving 200 a year on centre ice. That price will fall.

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#122 hardcore moiler
November 27 2013, 09:01AM
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seanjohn wrote:

the one eating their words will be you and Mact when he announces his trading of one of the players he, at this moment, believes he never will. eventually, he will come to the conclusion that he can't improve this team without trading one of the young thorobreds. the only question is will he waste next season living in this current state of delusion.

Why don't u watch the flames and leave the oilers alone stop crying about u guys sound so dumb thinking u know what to do

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#123 S cottV
November 27 2013, 11:30AM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

Arcobello is an excellent example of a smaller player who competes (and has been effective in many areas of the game during his limited NHL time). You can't judge willingness to compete with a tape measure.

Agreed - he competes but is not at a top 2 lines level, Gordon more upside in the 3rd rotation and Arcobello is not really a 4th line centreman kind of guy. He probably deserves to play on demonstrated merit but where?

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#124 BIGDAWG
November 27 2013, 11:55AM
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Using hits as a stat is meaningless. General physics dictates that a 5"9, 165 pound checker checking a 6"2 220 pound forward doesn't produce the same effects as a 6"2 220 pound forward hitting a 5"9 165 pound forward. You can have all the compete in the world, that said the body checks are not of equal value. The Oilers being in the top ten in the league in body checks does not equate them to being a physical hockey team.

I agree.. It shows they are trying... but we don't need try anymore.. its time to friggin DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#125 paulie
November 27 2013, 12:30PM
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@hardcore moiler

Hockey really isn't for you there guy. Perhaps the redneck Olympics and a get out my country moran shirt are.

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#126 @Oilanderp
November 27 2013, 12:44PM
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Most teams are so tight against the cap these days that it's pretty hard to make a trade. MacT has his work cut out for him.

I spent some time here:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?disp=1&db=201314&sit=5v5&sort=SVPCT&sortdir=ASC

today and it's interesting to click on the different headings and see where the Oilers rank. Some things that stand out in their 5v5 play:

1. Oilers are LAST in save %.

2. Oilers have given up the second most goals against.

3. Oilers are LAST in OZFO%(percentage of faceoffs in offensive zone while on ice).

4. Oilers have the 4th most DZFO% (percentage of faceoffs in defensive zone while on ice)

OK, so we spend too much time in our own zone and we can't get a save. No sh** Sherlock. It looks like we need to add better defense and, if the goaltending woes continue, a goalie.

Right?

Hold on, let's look at the offensive side of things:

1. Oilers are 12th in shooting %.

2. Oilers are 18th in goals FOR.

3. Only 3 teams take less shots per game than the Oilers (hard to shoot when always in your own zone I guess)

4. Only 6 teams take more faceoffs in the NEUTRAL zone than the Oilers.

OK so as always the difficulty in using these facts is how to interpret what they mean.

I'm going to make up a story that tries to explain these stats and you see if you like it.

Our D needs improvement. Our O will be fine but could perhaps make simpler plays a little more like put it on the net (Oilers don't take many shots)or chip n chase instead of turning it over at the blue line (hence the neutral zone faceoff stat).

Ok, so go get a #1 or #2 d-man that pushes the rest down into their appropriate slots. How?

As Robin writes:

Changing the make-up of this team, assembling the right mix, is either going to take a lot more time or the kind of "bold moves" MacT talked about when he took the job. That, in the end, is going to mean taking a player or two from that talented group of forwards and turning it into the necessary pieces.

The problem is that we may even already have some great defensemen in the pipeline. Can we trade THEM for a stud d-man? No.

As Robin points out, either we have to wait (years probably) or trade a beauty to get our stud. Either option will hurt like hell.

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#127 S cottV
November 27 2013, 01:15PM
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@@Oilanderp

Answer probably somewhere in the middle. Wait for RNH to develop into a dominant centreman. He presently sits in 105th position among centreman in the NHL for Corsi CF%. Thats way too far down the list and he is upside down at 46.7 (more shots against than for) - when on the ice. Gagner doesnt even register on the list. We really need both a top end hard to play against centreman and d man. Not many untouchables beyond RNH, Hall, Eberle, and Perron - toward trading for one or both of these needs. The sooner the better on this front - although, up against the trade dead line might produce some motivated buyers for pieces that the Oilers are willing to give up.

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#128 Rama Lama
November 27 2013, 05:08PM
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S cottV wrote:

Here is an excerpt from a Toronto newspaper reporting on the Phaneuf contract negotiations "No question, he is Toronto’s best defenceman, someone who is used on the power play, penalty kill and to shut down the other teams’ top lines. In that role, he has the Leafs’ best possession numbers, with Phaneuf on the ice for more shots for than shots against." Geez - wouldnt that be a few attributes we could use in an Oiler uniform?

He would look good in an Oilers uniform........but I suspect he will want to go to LA where his girlfriend wants to be?

I was thinking more along the lines of a Gardiner/ Schenn to help in a second pairing. No chance TO lets him walk IMHO.

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#129 madjam
November 27 2013, 07:26PM
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Cru Jones wrote:

I hear this argument a lot and I have to disagree. It's impossible to gauge how the Wings, who aren't all that great right now themselves, would behave with the sort of picks the Oilers have had because they've never had them. If you think the Wings would be keeping players like Yakupov, RNH and Hall in the minors, I think you're mistaken. The guys that the Wings have seasoned in the minors are the same sort of picks that Edmonton is doing the same thing with, ie: Lander, Hartikainen, Gernat, etc.

I'm not arguing that Edmonton's high picks wouldn't have possibly benefited from time in the minors, I just don't think it's realistic to point to the way another franchise handles picks in the 20-100 range, and say that's how it should be done for guys drafted in the top 5. If you look at Edmonton's players drafted in similar spots (Petry, Pitlick, Lander), Edmonton is arguably doing the same thing as the Wings.

Almost all our youth played close to half season in minors due to lock out , Eberle even longer . Yakupov is only one that didn't . So why does everyone say they should have started in minors when they already had ? Canned excuse for some I guess , but ignorant of their time there .

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#130 Dangilitis
November 27 2013, 10:16PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

Why dig yourself deeper?

You listed three stats. You flat-out fudged one of them -- about fighting majors -- and gave two others that are, at best, debatable in terms of supporting your argument.

The best part is you're arguing like I'm blaming the top six forwards for the Oilers problems when, in fact, I'm saying the exact opposite -- the top six is a position of depth and can or should be used to address other shortcomings that are the problem.

Why trade a strength of the team for players that could have been had in a great buyers UFA market last off-season for free? Boyes, Raymond, Grabovski, Gilbert, Hainsey, the list goes on. Khudobin instead of Labarbera and maybe its a different season.

That is why MacT failed. How could he not see the train wreck? Now media like you are going to force his hand to do something rash and stupid, and its his own fault.

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#131 Wohin gehst du?
November 26 2013, 11:25PM
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@Old School G

So look at all nhl players whose names start with P. Interesting strategy.

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#132 Harlie
November 27 2013, 07:37PM
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Pucker wrote:

Sorry for double-posting.

I click the button, Wait a minute. Nothing happens - so I click again and

Presto!

The definition on how to overflow a toilet everybody.

Flush once.

Post Comment once. Simple.

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