STAND BACK!

Lowetide
November 07 2013 07:55AM

 

The Oilers grabbed a road win in Sunrise on Tuesday, and there are signs things may get better. Taylor Hall is close to returning, the defensive depth (Larsen, Fedun) has been as advertised and the Nuge is beginnng to push the river again. One key item that remains unsolved: the goaltending. This has been Devan Dubnyk's job all along, now it's time for him to deliver. 

We've talked about stats and established Dubnyk was an average to slightly above average G entering this season. We've talked about smaller goalie pads impacting him, shorter sticks impacting his balance and his 'relaxed' attitude when things were not quite right in pre-season. 

That's all history. What's real is the here and now, and for  Dubnyk (coming off a short term injury) this is the time. The Oilers need him, need to believe in him, need him to not only make the stops he should but to rob another team of a victory on the road.

EVEN STRENGTH SAVE PERCENTAGE, LAST THREE YEARS

  • 2010-11: .921
  • 2011-12: .927
  • 2012-13: .922
  • 2013-14: .876

These numbers reflect a few things: bad start, small sample size, et cetera. When a goalie has a dip like that, we can look for the usual reasons (age, injury) and those do not apply to Dubnyk. The equipment change could be a factor, but all goalies have had to adjust and this season the Save Percentages have improved across the league. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Based on what we read, Devan Dubnyk is a popular guy in the dressing room and players (previous to this season) believed in him. We don't know how long the team will stay with him if these performances continue,but we do know who can impact the decision. 

Devan Dubnyk. Starting tonight. 

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 gregorbrownleechuk
November 07 2013, 11:39AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

It's like you haven't followed the Oilers ever.

We've wasted innumerable top 100 draft picks on "toughness" trying to fulfil your man-flesh fantasies.

Here… let this excite all your fantasies:

http://wpmedia.blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/11/cameron-abney-okc.jpg

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

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#52 Jordan1126
November 07 2013, 11:51AM
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hall is back tonight! plan the parades

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#53 Zarny
November 07 2013, 01:50PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

Wasn't trying to compare them.

Simply pointing out that October isn't a full season which is what Dubnyuk should be evaluated on.

Lots of elite players have stunk up the joint for a month to start the season.

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#54 MessyEH!
November 07 2013, 03:31PM
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Spydyr wrote:

One guy wins a Cup on guy wins a gold medal one guy has never won anything. In fact he has never got his team into the playoffs in the NHL. One of these things is not like the others. Two are clutch one is the anti-clutch. It does not matter what team is in front of you if you are not very consistent .The one thing consistent about Dubnyk is his inconsistency.

It is a faulty comparison.

Lou is not clutch. He is the polar opposite of clutch. If you recal, he didn't win us gold, he just failed at losing it on us.

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#55 Tapdog
November 07 2013, 09:00AM
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@Romulus' Apotheosis

Rom, thanks for the information. Much appreciated.

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#56 Quintana
November 07 2013, 10:33AM
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Yak with a goal and assist tonight book it!!!!

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#57 camdog
November 07 2013, 10:44AM
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VK63 wrote:

Craig Simpson speaks on other peoples failings.

Is this a great country or what?

Sine we are on to other people's failings, my sister used to idolize Mr.Simpson until she dealt him cards at the casino, ten years back. Dude had a temper when he gets drunk and loses money.

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#58 rob
November 07 2013, 10:52AM
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A top #1 goalie and this team is 500!HALLSY is back,now we need Perron!

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#59 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:06AM
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nunyour wrote:

do they let in all the soft goals Dubnyk does,no,and he is 27,those soft goal are deflating to the team.Mact said in very clearly,if you have to ask ,you already know the answer.

Did you watch Crawford play in 2011-12? He wasn't as bad as Dubnyk this year, but he was worse than the Dubnyk of 2011-12.

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#60 Space Dad
November 07 2013, 11:16AM
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@Mike Wazowski

Actually, Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard ARE all 'top end goalies.' In fact, I'd put Niemi in the NHL's top 3. Each of these goalies has a history of making key saves when the chips are down... with the goaltending issues we've witnessed this year in Edmonton, I don't think that ability can be overemphasized. Of course, the fact that 2 of these 3 (perhaps Crawford as well) will be representing their country in Sochi would attest to their being considered 'top end.'

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#61 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:36AM
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Zarny wrote:

LOL...Crawford, Niemi and Howard are certainly better than average goalies.

I don't think Mike said they are not better than average goalies, he said they are not top end goalies. So are they top end goalie?

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#62 pkam
November 07 2013, 12:11PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

So is it silly too to compare Anderson, Rask, Rinne to Quick or Luongo? I don't think any of them have won a cup or a gold medal.

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#63 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 01:01PM
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Mac962 wrote:

I still say we need a password for this site. Was the circus and town and left their clowns behind ? What has happend to the good informed, true fan hockey chats we use tio have.

I treat it like a TV.If you don't like what's on change the channel. You can usually tell by a glance at a comment if it is worth reading.

All caps or it looks like a text from a teenager.Move along nothing to see here.

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#64 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:03AM
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Jon wrote:

Do any of you stat whizzes out there know if anyone's ever looked at Dubnyk's SV% when the game is close?

Extraskater.com has the function to look at that but they only have stats for last year. Of note, his ES SV% was .923 last year. But his ES SV% when the game is close, drops to .912.

Now that's one year so I don't know if that means anything, that's why I'm wondering if anyone has seen those stats for other years?

Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

Wouldn't you think in most circumstances, 'The game is not close' is likely the result of a high SV%? So isn't it logical that the SV% will be higher when the game is not close?

Does it happen to other goalies as well, whether they are elite goalie or not?

So what does the stats of the previous years going to prove?

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#65 Yeah
November 07 2013, 11:15AM
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DougWeightProblem wrote:

Just heard Hall is back in.

Besides him and Gordon, what a BEAUTIFUL collection of MIDGET SOFTIES and DAFODILS on the first three lies to complement the gentle fairies like PETRY and FEDUN and LARSEN, etc. on the back end. GUDAS and LABRIE will have a field day tonight! TAMPA is gonna run these MIDGETS right out of the TIMES FORUM tonight! LMAO!!!!!

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#66 Virtual_Xi
November 07 2013, 11:41AM
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@Yeah

hey now, we here at Oilers Nation believe in the politically correct.

They are the Little People!

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#67 Taylor Gang
November 07 2013, 12:16PM
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Regor wrote:

You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

*shakes head* that was the first priority of the draft after we picked the wonder kids: look for Lucic. It never happened, as you know, and the reason you haven't heard of the players that Macgregor and Co. drafted is because they all wasted away in the minors before they were released for nothing.

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#68 Zarny
November 07 2013, 01:53PM
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pkam wrote:

I don't think Mike said they are not better than average goalies, he said they are not top end goalies. So are they top end goalie?

Yes, Crawford, Niemi and Howard are top end G.

Could depend on your definition though.

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#69 Johnnydapunk
November 07 2013, 03:11PM
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@Spydyr

Actually Dubnyk has a gold medal from the 2006 World Juniors, and a gold medal from the Spengler Cup in 2012.

Honestly I'm not sold on him by any means as he doesn't seem to have the mental strength to be a Cup winning goalie, but I am a stickler for factual information and in the interest of fairness, Luongo has won a stupid number of medals in International hockey, and Quick has the cup and an Olympic silver to his name. Either way I would prefer those two and quite a few other goalies to Dubnyk :-)

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#70 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 10:33AM
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@Jordan Nugent-Hallkins

Supposed to be wearing a knee brace for rest of season, according to Matheson.

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#71 Lochenzo
November 07 2013, 10:44AM
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Good to see Hall back. I thought the Omark call up was due to either Hall or Perron being out for a while longer. Guess it's Perron.

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#72 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 10:50AM
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Lochenzo wrote:

Good to see Hall back. I thought the Omark call up was due to either Hall or Perron being out for a while longer. Guess it's Perron.

Perron will join the team in Philly, likely won't be out more than a game or two more. Omark won't be around long, I guess .. unless ... trade?

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#73 nunyour
November 07 2013, 10:59AM
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Mike Wazowski wrote:

Are you trying to tell us Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard are 'top end goalies'? Not a chance.

Good to very good teams can win with average goaltending. We are not a good to very good team yet but we're still developing with an average, and still developing, Devan Dubnyk.

do they let in all the soft goals Dubnyk does,no,and he is 27,those soft goal are deflating to the team.Mact said in very clearly,if you have to ask ,you already know the answer.

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#74 Big Bad Browneel
November 07 2013, 11:24AM
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Yeah wrote:

Besides him and Gordon, what a BEAUTIFUL collection of MIDGET SOFTIES and DAFODILS on the first three lies to complement the gentle fairies like PETRY and FEDUN and LARSEN, etc. on the back end. GUDAS and LABRIE will have a field day tonight! TAMPA is gonna run these MIDGETS right out of the TIMES FORUM tonight! LMAO!!!!!

We need to call up more midgets- Fedun and Larsen are too big and tuff! Any more undersized pros like Omark left down on the farm? Maybe Arcobello can be our Enforcer? Half the kids at the Elementary School he read at a few weeks ago were bigger and yougher than him! lmao!

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#75 Regor
November 07 2013, 11:26AM
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You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

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#76 Regor
November 07 2013, 11:26AM
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You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

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#77 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 12:07PM
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mayorblaine wrote:

it's silly cause it doens't fit your narrative. it's a fair comparison. while we are talking fair tell me the team infront of Quick and Loungo when they accomplished these things relative to that of Dubnyk.

not here to boost Dubnyk, he needs to be waaay better. of that there is no doubt.

One guy wins a Cup on guy wins a gold medal one guy has never won anything. In fact he has never got his team into the playoffs in the NHL. One of these things is not like the others. Two are clutch one is the anti-clutch. It does not matter what team is in front of you if you are not very consistent .The one thing consistent about Dubnyk is his inconsistency.

It is a faulty comparison.

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#78 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 12:58PM
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pkam wrote:

So is it silly too to compare Anderson, Rask, Rinne to Quick or Luongo? I don't think any of them have won a cup or a gold medal.

Anderson, Rask and Rinne are all way more consistent and clutch then Dubnyk.

Some people are winners others are Oiler goalies in the last 10 years.

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#79 Muji
November 07 2013, 01:51PM
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There are other problems, but Dubnyk has to be much better. He is seriously under-performing at his job right now.

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#80 EasyOil
November 07 2013, 02:05PM
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#81 Jon
November 07 2013, 02:12PM
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pkam wrote:

Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

Wouldn't you think in most circumstances, 'The game is not close' is likely the result of a high SV%? So isn't it logical that the SV% will be higher when the game is not close?

Does it happen to other goalies as well, whether they are elite goalie or not?

So what does the stats of the previous years going to prove?

Well, people often say that Dubnyk's main flaw is letting in an untimely goal. They'd probably point to last night's last minute goal as an example, they're up by a goal (the game is close) and he lets one in.

So if this is an actual trend, I was thinking when you look at SV% when it's a 1 goal game or the game is tied, then his stats should be lower in this situation. I was just bored and looking at that site and saw that it was true for last year, so just wondering out loud if it was the same for previous years as well.

Maybe my thinking is flawed, I'll admit I'm not always the brightest dude, but I'm just wondering here. Although, I'm not really getting your logic...the game not close could be because he let in 85 goals just as much as it could be spectacular goaltending, so no it doesn't seem logical that it would be higher when the games not close. But ya, you would have to look at other goaltenders too, not just him, to have some context.

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#82 Rod from Viking
November 07 2013, 03:41PM
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Toronto has two #1 goaltenders and lots of d-men and need top six help, Labarbra, Gagner and a prospect for Reimer, Gunnerson and a 2nd.

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#83 word
November 07 2013, 03:45PM
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gregorbrownleechuk wrote:

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

This guy.

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#84 madjam
November 07 2013, 04:13PM
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Big Bad Browneel wrote:

We need to call up more midgets- Fedun and Larsen are too big and tuff! Any more undersized pros like Omark left down on the farm? Maybe Arcobello can be our Enforcer? Half the kids at the Elementary School he read at a few weeks ago were bigger and yougher than him! lmao!

Well , we could bring up a couple of offensive exciting talents on defence like B.Hunt and J. Lalegaglia I believe . .

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#85 Mike Wazowski
November 07 2013, 04:32PM
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@nunyour

Yes, actually they do. Did you blank out during Crawford's performance during the playoffs last year? He gave up a good 5 weak goals in a single game.

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#86 Lawndemon
November 07 2013, 07:50PM
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@gregorbrownleechuk

I am GUESSING by YOUR bizarre AFFECTATION that YOU may HAVE internet TOURETTES. Perhaps YOU should get THAT CHECKED out?

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#87 nunyour
November 08 2013, 09:25AM
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Mike Wazowski wrote:

Yes, actually they do. Did you blank out during Crawford's performance during the playoffs last year? He gave up a good 5 weak goals in a single game.

Ok.you guys are right,im wrong,Dubnyk rocks!!!!!

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#88 Wonger
November 08 2013, 11:12AM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

ok, bye wonger

That wasn't me! I haven't commented in weeks. I like the Oil. Taylor Fedun reminds me of a young Ray Bourque!

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