STAND BACK!

Lowetide
November 07 2013 07:55AM

 

The Oilers grabbed a road win in Sunrise on Tuesday, and there are signs things may get better. Taylor Hall is close to returning, the defensive depth (Larsen, Fedun) has been as advertised and the Nuge is beginnng to push the river again. One key item that remains unsolved: the goaltending. This has been Devan Dubnyk's job all along, now it's time for him to deliver. 

We've talked about stats and established Dubnyk was an average to slightly above average G entering this season. We've talked about smaller goalie pads impacting him, shorter sticks impacting his balance and his 'relaxed' attitude when things were not quite right in pre-season. 

That's all history. What's real is the here and now, and for  Dubnyk (coming off a short term injury) this is the time. The Oilers need him, need to believe in him, need him to not only make the stops he should but to rob another team of a victory on the road.

EVEN STRENGTH SAVE PERCENTAGE, LAST THREE YEARS

  • 2010-11: .921
  • 2011-12: .927
  • 2012-13: .922
  • 2013-14: .876

These numbers reflect a few things: bad start, small sample size, et cetera. When a goalie has a dip like that, we can look for the usual reasons (age, injury) and those do not apply to Dubnyk. The equipment change could be a factor, but all goalies have had to adjust and this season the Save Percentages have improved across the league. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Based on what we read, Devan Dubnyk is a popular guy in the dressing room and players (previous to this season) believed in him. We don't know how long the team will stay with him if these performances continue,but we do know who can impact the decision. 

Devan Dubnyk. Starting tonight. 

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Walter Sobchak
November 07 2013, 08:48AM
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I'm not convinced anything on the Oilers will change once they get everyone back, they were awful before these players went down, I'm not expecting that to change.

As far as Dubnyk goes, he's absolutely brutal.

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#2 gregorbrownleechuk
November 07 2013, 11:39AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

It's like you haven't followed the Oilers ever.

We've wasted innumerable top 100 draft picks on "toughness" trying to fulfil your man-flesh fantasies.

Here… let this excite all your fantasies:

http://wpmedia.blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/11/cameron-abney-okc.jpg

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

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#3 Big Bad Browneel
November 07 2013, 11:24AM
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Yeah wrote:

Besides him and Gordon, what a BEAUTIFUL collection of MIDGET SOFTIES and DAFODILS on the first three lies to complement the gentle fairies like PETRY and FEDUN and LARSEN, etc. on the back end. GUDAS and LABRIE will have a field day tonight! TAMPA is gonna run these MIDGETS right out of the TIMES FORUM tonight! LMAO!!!!!

We need to call up more midgets- Fedun and Larsen are too big and tuff! Any more undersized pros like Omark left down on the farm? Maybe Arcobello can be our Enforcer? Half the kids at the Elementary School he read at a few weeks ago were bigger and yougher than him! lmao!

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#4 Dave
November 07 2013, 08:12AM
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It means that the Oilers will never make the playoffs or go very far in the playoffs with just average goaltending.

I am not a Gagner fan nor a Dubnyk fan . I hope they both prove me wrong.

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#5 Yeah
November 07 2013, 11:15AM
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DougWeightProblem wrote:

Just heard Hall is back in.

Besides him and Gordon, what a BEAUTIFUL collection of MIDGET SOFTIES and DAFODILS on the first three lies to complement the gentle fairies like PETRY and FEDUN and LARSEN, etc. on the back end. GUDAS and LABRIE will have a field day tonight! TAMPA is gonna run these MIDGETS right out of the TIMES FORUM tonight! LMAO!!!!!

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#6 Regor
November 07 2013, 11:26AM
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You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

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#7 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 11:32AM
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Zarny wrote:

This season was always going to be the trial of Devan Dubnyk.

He's not a prospect anymore; he's 27 and was drafted 9 years ago.

The Oilers need to determine this year if he's good enough to make the playoffs, good enough to only make the playoffs or can he win the Cup.

My personal opinion has always been he's good enough to make the playoffs but will never win a Cup.

Still, he has to be evaluated over a full season. Luongo wouldn't even be in the NHL based on some of his Octobers and Quick is sitting in LA with a 0.896 SV%.

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

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#8 He Who Knows
November 07 2013, 08:54AM
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Dubynk is not the answer. Plain and simple. When MacT went hard after Schneider, Dubs lost his mojo and lets face it, he did not have a whole lot to begin with.

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#9 Lochenzo
November 07 2013, 09:40AM
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Dubnyk is more than capable. The problem is between the ears. He just has to keep things simple, follow his instincts and positioning. Primary focus should be on a possible shot - think Upshall tying goal 2 nights ago. I'd love to be able to tell Dubnyk that the defence will take care of everything else, but, well, you know the state of affairs in the defensive zone. But at least we can't blame him for giving up goals on 10 bell scoring chances.

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#10 Regor
November 07 2013, 11:26AM
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You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

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#11 nunyour
November 07 2013, 09:22AM
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This is not a new problem to many of us that saw Dubnyk's flaw's from day one,the soft goals.Last year the media was busy pumping his tires proclaiming him a legit starting goalie, and many of us just shook our heads quietly.You can not win in this league without a top end goalie,it's that simple.Again it's back to wait till next year.

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#12 Mike Wazowski
November 07 2013, 10:06AM
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@nunyour

Are you trying to tell us Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard are 'top end goalies'? Not a chance.

Good to very good teams can win with average goaltending. We are not a good to very good team yet but we're still developing with an average, and still developing, Devan Dubnyk.

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#13 mr common sense
November 07 2013, 09:45AM
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Sean17 wrote:

Craig Simpson on Oilers Lunch yesterday did not have nice things to say about Dubnyk....

Because he's smart and not drunk on the Edmonton KoolAid. Dubnyk is not #1 material, MacT knows it too.

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#14 Space Dad
November 07 2013, 11:16AM
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@Mike Wazowski

Actually, Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard ARE all 'top end goalies.' In fact, I'd put Niemi in the NHL's top 3. Each of these goalies has a history of making key saves when the chips are down... with the goaltending issues we've witnessed this year in Edmonton, I don't think that ability can be overemphasized. Of course, the fact that 2 of these 3 (perhaps Crawford as well) will be representing their country in Sochi would attest to their being considered 'top end.'

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#15 pkam
November 07 2013, 12:11PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

So is it silly too to compare Anderson, Rask, Rinne to Quick or Luongo? I don't think any of them have won a cup or a gold medal.

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#16 Tapdog
November 07 2013, 08:17AM
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Lowetide wrote:

It's been a worry forever, Simpson has made so much progress as a player he's a real value--much higher than his drafted number.

I hope he signs with the Oilers, but they have so much defensive depth and he would command an enormous amount as an unsigned free agent.

And I imagine there are several teams who would like to stick it to the Oil over Justin Schultz, notably Anaheim.

LT, have the Oilers missed the window on signing Simpson? When the Oilers drafted him, how long do they have to get ink to paper for a college kid?

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#17 Shredder
November 07 2013, 09:04AM
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Starting tonight? All the other starting goalies started a month and a half ago...

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#18 Wolfson
November 07 2013, 09:12AM
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From AMA on reddit with Jay Onrait

"Jay, I'm a huge fan of yours, a medium sized fan of Dans, an am relatively indifferent towards Producer Tim. My question is: can you offer any words of hope to the long suffering Oilers fans such as myself? Thanks!"

Jay "Not really. Unless Katz comes to his senses and fires everyone in the front office (but keeps Eakins)"

Link: http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1q1a2r/i_am_jay_onrait_ama/

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#19 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 12:07PM
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mayorblaine wrote:

it's silly cause it doens't fit your narrative. it's a fair comparison. while we are talking fair tell me the team infront of Quick and Loungo when they accomplished these things relative to that of Dubnyk.

not here to boost Dubnyk, he needs to be waaay better. of that there is no doubt.

One guy wins a Cup on guy wins a gold medal one guy has never won anything. In fact he has never got his team into the playoffs in the NHL. One of these things is not like the others. Two are clutch one is the anti-clutch. It does not matter what team is in front of you if you are not very consistent .The one thing consistent about Dubnyk is his inconsistency.

It is a faulty comparison.

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#20 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 12:58PM
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pkam wrote:

So is it silly too to compare Anderson, Rask, Rinne to Quick or Luongo? I don't think any of them have won a cup or a gold medal.

Anderson, Rask and Rinne are all way more consistent and clutch then Dubnyk.

Some people are winners others are Oiler goalies in the last 10 years.

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#21 Rod from Viking
November 07 2013, 03:41PM
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Toronto has two #1 goaltenders and lots of d-men and need top six help, Labarbra, Gagner and a prospect for Reimer, Gunnerson and a 2nd.

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#22 Clarko
November 07 2013, 08:38AM
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I'm hoping Dubnyk finds his game because the Oilers can never win on a consistent basis without solid goaltending throughout the season. I thought his detractors were a little unfair coming into this season, but he has deserved all the criticism he has received so far.

The only way this team turns this season around is much better goaltending and being significantly more healthy...especially the return of Hall and Perron. This team will have difficulty winning unless RNH, Hall, Perron, and Eberle are in the lineup nearly every night.

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#23 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
November 07 2013, 08:53AM
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I still say we need to see a Hall - Nuge - Yak line when Hall's back. It seems like it would have a good mix of talent. Hall as the power guy, Nuge as the playmaker, Nail as the shooter. Plus with Hall and Yak's speed, they could wreak some havoc on defenders.

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#24 Smokey
November 07 2013, 09:46AM
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boxman wrote:

LT, Craig Simpson was on the radio yesterday saying how son Dillon would have his degree by December and would consider ALL of his options then. This makes me think the Oilers may be in tough signing him. Thoughts?

Who really knows how good he is. What's his leverage...can he pull a Justin Schultz?

Frankly if he is done school by Christmas, he should look to sign with the Oil.

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#25 Soccer Steve
November 07 2013, 09:48AM
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If Dubnyk is our goalie this time next year, I will be stunned.

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#26 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 09:59AM
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Dubnyk is not the answer moving forward, MacT knows it. Some of knew it a while ago.

He is UFA this summer MacT will try his hardest to upgrade.

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#27 Quintana
November 07 2013, 10:33AM
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Yak with a goal and assist tonight book it!!!!

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#28 rob
November 07 2013, 10:52AM
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A top #1 goalie and this team is 500!HALLSY is back,now we need Perron!

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#29 druds
November 07 2013, 12:11PM
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If this was High School Dubynk would have been given his "thanks for participating" ribbon and sent home....So I suggest we do the same and bury him down in the ECHL or wherever until He actually proves he can stop something smaller than a Beachball. When ever somneone talks about DD its to say...Oh "how nice he is in the room" or how "everybody likes him" and the most damning statement is " He is usually aN average NHL goalie!!! We expect to go somewhere with this guy? We need to look elsewhere, this 8 year oddyssey with DD should be ended and kick Fred Chabot out with him...

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#30 boxman
November 07 2013, 08:00AM
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LT, Craig Simpson was on the radio yesterday saying how son Dillon would have his degree by December and would consider ALL of his options then. This makes me think the Oilers may be in tough signing him. Thoughts?

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#31 Jon
November 07 2013, 08:57AM
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Do any of you stat whizzes out there know if anyone's ever looked at Dubnyk's SV% when the game is close?

Extraskater.com has the function to look at that but they only have stats for last year. Of note, his ES SV% was .923 last year. But his ES SV% when the game is close, drops to .912.

Now that's one year so I don't know if that means anything, that's why I'm wondering if anyone has seen those stats for other years?

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#32 Tapdog
November 07 2013, 09:00AM
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@Romulus' Apotheosis

Rom, thanks for the information. Much appreciated.

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#33 Rob...
November 07 2013, 09:08AM
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I now treat Oiler games like I treat movies. I go in expecting 'crap' because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than horribly disappointed.

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#34 VK63
November 07 2013, 09:55AM
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Sean17 wrote:

Craig Simpson on Oilers Lunch yesterday did not have nice things to say about Dubnyk....

Craig Simpson speaks on other peoples failings.

Is this a great country or what?

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#35 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 10:25AM
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Just heard Hall is back in.

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#36 camdog
November 07 2013, 10:44AM
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VK63 wrote:

Craig Simpson speaks on other peoples failings.

Is this a great country or what?

Sine we are on to other people's failings, my sister used to idolize Mr.Simpson until she dealt him cards at the casino, ten years back. Dude had a temper when he gets drunk and loses money.

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#37 Lochenzo
November 07 2013, 10:44AM
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Good to see Hall back. I thought the Omark call up was due to either Hall or Perron being out for a while longer. Guess it's Perron.

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#38 nunyour
November 07 2013, 10:59AM
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Mike Wazowski wrote:

Are you trying to tell us Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard are 'top end goalies'? Not a chance.

Good to very good teams can win with average goaltending. We are not a good to very good team yet but we're still developing with an average, and still developing, Devan Dubnyk.

do they let in all the soft goals Dubnyk does,no,and he is 27,those soft goal are deflating to the team.Mact said in very clearly,if you have to ask ,you already know the answer.

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#39 Zarny
November 07 2013, 11:11AM
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Mike Wazowski wrote:

Are you trying to tell us Corey Crawford, Antti Niemi and Jimmy Howard are 'top end goalies'? Not a chance.

Good to very good teams can win with average goaltending. We are not a good to very good team yet but we're still developing with an average, and still developing, Devan Dubnyk.

LOL...Crawford, Niemi and Howard are certainly better than average goalies.

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#40 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 11:30AM
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Regor wrote:

You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

It's like you haven't followed the Oilers ever.

We've wasted innumerable top 100 draft picks on "toughness" trying to fulfil your man-flesh fantasies.

Here… let this excite all your fantasies:

http://wpmedia.blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2012/11/cameron-abney-okc.jpg

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#41 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 11:38AM
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Yeah wrote:

Besides him and Gordon, what a BEAUTIFUL collection of MIDGET SOFTIES and DAFODILS on the first three lies to complement the gentle fairies like PETRY and FEDUN and LARSEN, etc. on the back end. GUDAS and LABRIE will have a field day tonight! TAMPA is gonna run these MIDGETS right out of the TIMES FORUM tonight! LMAO!!!!!

You shouldn't drink on a Thurdsday morning, it conveys a lack of intelligence. Stick to HF boards.

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#42 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 11:44AM
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gregorbrownleechuk wrote:

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

I think your meds are calling.

Good gravy, what are you talking about?!

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#43 mayorblaine
November 07 2013, 11:45AM
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Spydyr wrote:

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

it's silly cause it doens't fit your narrative. it's a fair comparison. while we are talking fair tell me the team infront of Quick and Loungo when they accomplished these things relative to that of Dubnyk.

not here to boost Dubnyk, he needs to be waaay better. of that there is no doubt.

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#44 Wäx Män Riley
November 07 2013, 12:01PM
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gregorbrownleechuk wrote:

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

ok, bye wonger

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#45 Mac962
November 07 2013, 12:21PM
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I still say we need a password for this site. Was the circus and town and left their clowns behind ? What has happend to the good informed, true fan hockey chats we use tio have.

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#46 Ron Burgundy
November 07 2013, 12:37PM
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Mac962 wrote:

I still say we need a password for this site. Was the circus and town and left their clowns behind ? What has happend to the good informed, true fan hockey chats we use tio have.

I was just thinking the same thing. Maybe its a junior high school holiday in Calgary today?

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#47 Spydyr
November 07 2013, 01:01PM
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Mac962 wrote:

I still say we need a password for this site. Was the circus and town and left their clowns behind ? What has happend to the good informed, true fan hockey chats we use tio have.

I treat it like a TV.If you don't like what's on change the channel. You can usually tell by a glance at a comment if it is worth reading.

All caps or it looks like a text from a teenager.Move along nothing to see here.

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#48 nunyour
November 07 2013, 01:05PM
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mayorblaine wrote:

it's silly cause it doens't fit your narrative. it's a fair comparison. while we are talking fair tell me the team infront of Quick and Loungo when they accomplished these things relative to that of Dubnyk.

not here to boost Dubnyk, he needs to be waaay better. of that there is no doubt.

The team in front of Dubnyk has nothing to do with soft 40 foot shots going in.

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#49 Zarny
November 07 2013, 01:53PM
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pkam wrote:

I don't think Mike said they are not better than average goalies, he said they are not top end goalies. So are they top end goalie?

Yes, Crawford, Niemi and Howard are top end G.

Could depend on your definition though.

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#50 word
November 07 2013, 03:45PM
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gregorbrownleechuk wrote:

Why do I waste my time debating you retreads? You are just as pathetic as the Oilers, their management , scouts and players - except Eakins and MacT! I'd give you a shot back but then you'd block my computer IP address so I'll just leave it at BUZZ OFF and GET a SERIOUS JOB as your MIDGET beloved OILERS flounder for another 6 years minimum!I am not wasting another second of my life or $.01 on the Oilers, Oilersnation or the Jason Gregor show! Don't bother replying I won't be reading it! I've got better things to do with my time!

This guy.

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