STAND BACK!

Lowetide
November 07 2013 07:55AM

 

The Oilers grabbed a road win in Sunrise on Tuesday, and there are signs things may get better. Taylor Hall is close to returning, the defensive depth (Larsen, Fedun) has been as advertised and the Nuge is beginnng to push the river again. One key item that remains unsolved: the goaltending. This has been Devan Dubnyk's job all along, now it's time for him to deliver. 

We've talked about stats and established Dubnyk was an average to slightly above average G entering this season. We've talked about smaller goalie pads impacting him, shorter sticks impacting his balance and his 'relaxed' attitude when things were not quite right in pre-season. 

That's all history. What's real is the here and now, and for  Dubnyk (coming off a short term injury) this is the time. The Oilers need him, need to believe in him, need him to not only make the stops he should but to rob another team of a victory on the road.

EVEN STRENGTH SAVE PERCENTAGE, LAST THREE YEARS

  • 2010-11: .921
  • 2011-12: .927
  • 2012-13: .922
  • 2013-14: .876

These numbers reflect a few things: bad start, small sample size, et cetera. When a goalie has a dip like that, we can look for the usual reasons (age, injury) and those do not apply to Dubnyk. The equipment change could be a factor, but all goalies have had to adjust and this season the Save Percentages have improved across the league. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Based on what we read, Devan Dubnyk is a popular guy in the dressing room and players (previous to this season) believed in him. We don't know how long the team will stay with him if these performances continue,but we do know who can impact the decision. 

Devan Dubnyk. Starting tonight. 

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#52 Taylor Gang
November 07 2013, 08:36AM
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At least Simpson has history with EDM, so that helps. That being said, without sounding like Tambellini, our defense is looking very good in terms of what's coming. Nurse, Klef, and Schultz will be great defensemen for the years to come and Marincin is not far behind either.

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#53 Sean17
November 07 2013, 08:41AM
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Craig Simpson on Oilers Lunch yesterday did not have nice things to say about Dubnyk....

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#54 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 08:43AM
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Tapdog wrote:

LT, have the Oilers missed the window on signing Simpson? When the Oilers drafted him, how long do they have to get ink to paper for a college kid?

As I understand it, the problem here is that the CBA forces the player/team into an either/or situation.

You either sign a contract (ELC) with your team and leave college to play Jr., ahl, or nhl depending on the age of the player and other factors.

Or, you ride out your 4 years of college eligibility in college at which point you become a free agent.

Basically, you can't sign with a team and remain within the college system. This puts pressure on teams to sign players early.

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#55 Craig1981
November 07 2013, 08:47AM
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Romulus' Apotheosis wrote:

As I understand it, the problem here is that the CBA forces the player/team into an either/or situation.

You either sign a contract (ELC) with your team and leave college to play Jr., ahl, or nhl depending on the age of the player and other factors.

Or, you ride out your 4 years of college eligibility in college at which point you become a free agent.

Basically, you can't sign with a team and remain within the college system. This puts pressure on teams to sign players early.

From my understanding the is not the NHL CBA, but the college NCAA rules. If you are under contract you are a professional and can't play amateur. Considering they have taken Heisman's away and suspended players for autographing a football that will get sold, I don't think this is changing anytime soon.

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#56 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 09:02AM
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Craig1981 wrote:

From my understanding the is not the NHL CBA, but the college NCAA rules. If you are under contract you are a professional and can't play amateur. Considering they have taken Heisman's away and suspended players for autographing a football that will get sold, I don't think this is changing anytime soon.

This is a great point and is certainly the case…

but it's not the only issue. The CBA works with and addresses all the other leagues in terms of how players can be managed. The CBA has a big impact on how both drafted and undrafted NCAA players are managed.

Here's some pieces on how the CBA can and does affect college players:

http://www.uscho.com/2012/08/29/college-hockey-has-eyes-on-hopes-for-nhl-collective-bargaining-negotiations/

http://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-mens-hockey/2012/10/16/3513986/new-nhl-cba-could-be-a-positive-for-ncaa-teams

http://unitedstatesofhockey.com/2013/01/16/new-cba-unlikely-to-bring-relief-to-college-hockey/

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#57 Spoils
November 07 2013, 09:06AM
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It was just a heartbeat ago when we won the JSchultz lottery.

Now people are saying Dillon won't sign, Duchenne is in the patrick Kane - Crosby conversation, and Taylor Hall isn't gonna make the Olympic team.

I think these things are transformatively bad.

It shows me how important it is we start winning games now or try to regain the excitement about our rebuild.

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#58 Tapdog
November 07 2013, 09:08AM
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Jordan Nugent-Hallkins wrote:

I still say we need to see a Hall - Nuge - Yak line when Hall's back. It seems like it would have a good mix of talent. Hall as the power guy, Nuge as the playmaker, Nail as the shooter. Plus with Hall and Yak's speed, they could wreak some havoc on defenders.

Actually Hall and Yak had some nice chemistry last season with Gag's in the middle. With Gag's struggling at this point I think they should let him slot in the third line RW spot alongside Gordon to get himself straightened out. Let Arco take those minutes for now with Hall and Yak. Would not be surprised to see them do well, besides Arco is better defensively and can actually win a draw. With the chemistry between Eb's and Nuge and also between Eb's and Perron, I like to looks of those three running together.

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#59 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 09:12AM
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Rob... wrote:

I now treat Oiler games like I treat movies. I go in expecting 'crap' because I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than horribly disappointed.

"we hoped for the best, but it turned out like always"

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#60 Jay Gray
November 07 2013, 09:12AM
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I've been a big Dubnyk backer this entire time, but patience is wearing thin. These bad goals need to stop...now.

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#61 Lochenzo
November 07 2013, 09:56AM
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Same CBA rules for Simpson as Schultz? As I recall under J Schultz's deal, the amount of money he could sign for was capped. But the term was subjective and Justin had his choice of where to sign.

So if that's the case, then wouldn't it be a matter of where Simpson wants to play?

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#62 Romulus' Apotheosis
November 07 2013, 09:59AM
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Smokey wrote:

Who really knows how good he is. What's his leverage...can he pull a Justin Schultz?

Frankly if he is done school by Christmas, he should look to sign with the Oil.

We don't really know.

The sports media isn't very good at sending out scouting reports to the masses on college kids… but from what is available, Simpson has blossomed and very early for a D-man of his calibre and pedigree.

Here's a good look at him:

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/08/23/complete-defender-dillon-simpson-is-a-solid-sleeper-prospect-for-the-edmonton-oilers/

Some more:

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/8/6/4593804/13-dillon-simpson

http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/9/26/4770664/dillon-simpson

Basically, the majority of the flaws noted on draft day have been burned off. In a re-draft he goes much, much higher.

He's assumed a leadership role in college (captain) playing against men and is still very young (he's only 20 and in his 4th and final year of college).

His leverage is going to be structural, ie., every team will want him in their prospect pool pushing for NHL work and getting big AHL minutes, he has no reason to sign with the Oilers and the Oilers are stacked with D prospects making his future path to the NHL harder with them.

Look for the Oil to push hard to sign him and maybe even offload a couple of D prospects (maybe Musil and Gernat) to make room for him.

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#63 Rama Lama
November 07 2013, 10:00AM
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I understand the frustration that everyone is having with Dubnyk given his style of play.

Someone should tell him ( maybe the goaltending coach) that all these NHL players are pretty smart and know without even looking, where to shoot on him. Before the shooter even shoots Duby is flat on the ice flopping around.........they have all seen this before and know to shoot high.

I think that the era of really big NON athletic goaltenders focused on covering the bottom of the net is coming to an end. Bachman who is a much smaller more athletic goaltender plays the angles and stands square to the shooter.

I'll take a smaller stand up goalie any day over the alternative. Duby will get lit up tonight by Stamkos and will cost us the game......yet again!

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#64 Lochenzo
November 07 2013, 10:09AM
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I see Dubnyk and Corey Crawford as having parallel careers up until the past year. They were both brough along slowly through the minors. Got the starting job in their mid-20's. Had their shining moments and also had their struggles and no shortage of detractors.

Crawford had a fantastic season last year which culminated in a Cup ring and received a big time contract this past summer. How did Crawford turn this corner?

First, gotta give props to Crawford. Second, huge kudos to Stephane Waite, his goalie coach, who is now doing a great job with Carey Price. Third, a more than solid push from Ray Emery for the starters job. Fourth, when Crawford was at his lowest, all you had to ask Crawford to do is focus on making the initial save. Don't worry about rebound control or potential cross crease passes for now. You have Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook to bail you out. Crawford was able to re-establish his confidence, he could build upon his game from there.

I don't think Dubnyk has all of these tools for turning his game around that Crawford had.

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#65 Jordan Nugent-Hallkins
November 07 2013, 10:26AM
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@DougWeightProblem

Saw that too, I really hope they didn't rush him back. We need help, but if he gets hurt again we'll be in an even worse spot.

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#66 Andrew
November 07 2013, 10:28AM
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L.T. - There seems to be a troubling pattern to Dubnyk's performance. He has had some real solid games or portions thereof but loses focus at key times. Those times are frequently at the beginning and late in periods and of course late in the third period. No Oiler lead seems safe.

I don't think that has escaped the notice of Oiler brass. That pattern has been there now for several seasons. Dubnyk can never say the Oilers haven't given him lots of rope...er...opportunity. There is little likelihood he's here next season.

On the other hand I think Bachman fights harder for the puck and I think he could be a solid backup if given a chance and a stronger 'D' presence in front of his crease.

Where that # 1 keeper comes from is up to Mact and the scouting staff. Dubnyk is imo never going to be consistent enough for this team to move forward.

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#67 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 10:33AM
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@Jordan Nugent-Hallkins

Supposed to be wearing a knee brace for rest of season, according to Matheson.

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#68 DougWeightProblem
November 07 2013, 10:50AM
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Lochenzo wrote:

Good to see Hall back. I thought the Omark call up was due to either Hall or Perron being out for a while longer. Guess it's Perron.

Perron will join the team in Philly, likely won't be out more than a game or two more. Omark won't be around long, I guess .. unless ... trade?

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#69 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:03AM
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Jon wrote:

Do any of you stat whizzes out there know if anyone's ever looked at Dubnyk's SV% when the game is close?

Extraskater.com has the function to look at that but they only have stats for last year. Of note, his ES SV% was .923 last year. But his ES SV% when the game is close, drops to .912.

Now that's one year so I don't know if that means anything, that's why I'm wondering if anyone has seen those stats for other years?

Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

Wouldn't you think in most circumstances, 'The game is not close' is likely the result of a high SV%? So isn't it logical that the SV% will be higher when the game is not close?

Does it happen to other goalies as well, whether they are elite goalie or not?

So what does the stats of the previous years going to prove?

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#70 Zarny
November 07 2013, 11:05AM
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This season was always going to be the trial of Devan Dubnyk.

He's not a prospect anymore; he's 27 and was drafted 9 years ago.

The Oilers need to determine this year if he's good enough to make the playoffs, good enough to only make the playoffs or can he win the Cup.

My personal opinion has always been he's good enough to make the playoffs but will never win a Cup.

Still, he has to be evaluated over a full season. Luongo wouldn't even be in the NHL based on some of his Octobers and Quick is sitting in LA with a 0.896 SV%.

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#71 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:06AM
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nunyour wrote:

do they let in all the soft goals Dubnyk does,no,and he is 27,those soft goal are deflating to the team.Mact said in very clearly,if you have to ask ,you already know the answer.

Did you watch Crawford play in 2011-12? He wasn't as bad as Dubnyk this year, but he was worse than the Dubnyk of 2011-12.

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#72 pkam
November 07 2013, 11:36AM
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Zarny wrote:

LOL...Crawford, Niemi and Howard are certainly better than average goalies.

I don't think Mike said they are not better than average goalies, he said they are not top end goalies. So are they top end goalie?

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#73 Virtual_Xi
November 07 2013, 11:41AM
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@Yeah

hey now, we here at Oilers Nation believe in the politically correct.

They are the Little People!

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#74 Jordan1126
November 07 2013, 11:51AM
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hall is back tonight! plan the parades

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#75 DrunkGuyTy
November 07 2013, 11:51AM
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@gregorbrownleechuk

Promise? You don't really sound like you have better things to do. Good riddance.

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#76 oilbaron
November 07 2013, 12:05PM
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Finally a full lineup! Let's waste these floridians

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#77 Taylor Gang
November 07 2013, 12:16PM
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Regor wrote:

You meant TOUGHER!!! Size and toughness are not requirements to be an Oiler. Ask our scouts! We like midgets! Saves on fuel costs on our Charter Flights with AC JETZ!

*shakes head* that was the first priority of the draft after we picked the wonder kids: look for Lucic. It never happened, as you know, and the reason you haven't heard of the players that Macgregor and Co. drafted is because they all wasted away in the minors before they were released for nothing.

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#78 Zarny
November 07 2013, 01:50PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Quick has a Cup , Luongo has a gold medal. Dubnyk has never won a thing. It is silly to compare them.

Wasn't trying to compare them.

Simply pointing out that October isn't a full season which is what Dubnyuk should be evaluated on.

Lots of elite players have stunk up the joint for a month to start the season.

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#79 Muji
November 07 2013, 01:51PM
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There are other problems, but Dubnyk has to be much better. He is seriously under-performing at his job right now.

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#80 EasyOil
November 07 2013, 02:05PM
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#81 Jon
November 07 2013, 02:12PM
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pkam wrote:

Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

Wouldn't you think in most circumstances, 'The game is not close' is likely the result of a high SV%? So isn't it logical that the SV% will be higher when the game is not close?

Does it happen to other goalies as well, whether they are elite goalie or not?

So what does the stats of the previous years going to prove?

Well, people often say that Dubnyk's main flaw is letting in an untimely goal. They'd probably point to last night's last minute goal as an example, they're up by a goal (the game is close) and he lets one in.

So if this is an actual trend, I was thinking when you look at SV% when it's a 1 goal game or the game is tied, then his stats should be lower in this situation. I was just bored and looking at that site and saw that it was true for last year, so just wondering out loud if it was the same for previous years as well.

Maybe my thinking is flawed, I'll admit I'm not always the brightest dude, but I'm just wondering here. Although, I'm not really getting your logic...the game not close could be because he let in 85 goals just as much as it could be spectacular goaltending, so no it doesn't seem logical that it would be higher when the games not close. But ya, you would have to look at other goaltenders too, not just him, to have some context.

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#82 Johnnydapunk
November 07 2013, 03:11PM
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@Spydyr

Actually Dubnyk has a gold medal from the 2006 World Juniors, and a gold medal from the Spengler Cup in 2012.

Honestly I'm not sold on him by any means as he doesn't seem to have the mental strength to be a Cup winning goalie, but I am a stickler for factual information and in the interest of fairness, Luongo has won a stupid number of medals in International hockey, and Quick has the cup and an Olympic silver to his name. Either way I would prefer those two and quite a few other goalies to Dubnyk :-)

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#83 MessyEH!
November 07 2013, 03:31PM
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Spydyr wrote:

One guy wins a Cup on guy wins a gold medal one guy has never won anything. In fact he has never got his team into the playoffs in the NHL. One of these things is not like the others. Two are clutch one is the anti-clutch. It does not matter what team is in front of you if you are not very consistent .The one thing consistent about Dubnyk is his inconsistency.

It is a faulty comparison.

Lou is not clutch. He is the polar opposite of clutch. If you recal, he didn't win us gold, he just failed at losing it on us.

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#84 madjam
November 07 2013, 04:13PM
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Big Bad Browneel wrote:

We need to call up more midgets- Fedun and Larsen are too big and tuff! Any more undersized pros like Omark left down on the farm? Maybe Arcobello can be our Enforcer? Half the kids at the Elementary School he read at a few weeks ago were bigger and yougher than him! lmao!

Well , we could bring up a couple of offensive exciting talents on defence like B.Hunt and J. Lalegaglia I believe . .

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#85 Mike Wazowski
November 07 2013, 04:32PM
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@nunyour

Yes, actually they do. Did you blank out during Crawford's performance during the playoffs last year? He gave up a good 5 weak goals in a single game.

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#86 Lawndemon
November 07 2013, 07:50PM
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@gregorbrownleechuk

I am GUESSING by YOUR bizarre AFFECTATION that YOU may HAVE internet TOURETTES. Perhaps YOU should get THAT CHECKED out?

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#87 nunyour
November 08 2013, 09:25AM
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Mike Wazowski wrote:

Yes, actually they do. Did you blank out during Crawford's performance during the playoffs last year? He gave up a good 5 weak goals in a single game.

Ok.you guys are right,im wrong,Dubnyk rocks!!!!!

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#88 Wonger
November 08 2013, 11:12AM
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Wax Man Riley wrote:

ok, bye wonger

That wasn't me! I haven't commented in weeks. I like the Oil. Taylor Fedun reminds me of a young Ray Bourque!

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