The Face of the Franchise?

Jonathan Willis
December 17 2013 08:44AM

This summer, the clear consensus in Edmonton seemed to be that Taylor Hall was the most important part of the team’s long-term core. The year before, Jordan Eberle’s 34-goal, 76-point season likely would have won him that honour.

But if we held a poll today I’m guessing that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would be the name on the lips of most.

My View

I wasn’t a fan of drafting Nugent-Hopkins first overall. In a year where the top-four seemed closely bunched, Nugent-Hopkins offence seemed too dependent on the power play. It wasn’t that I didn’t like the player, but defenceman Adam Larsson – projected as a two-way workhorse and a guy I’d seen play very well at the World Juniors – felt like a safer choice and a better fit for team need.

But while the Oilers certainly wouldn’t say ‘no’ to a defenceman like Larsson, and while blueliners tend to take longer to round into form than forwards, the results so far are one-sided and not in my favour.

Nugent-Hopkins has certainly been the power play witch his junior numbers suggested he was, but he’s been far more than that. He plays an intelligent two-way game at the age of 20, and suddenly all those junior comparisons to Pavel Datsyuk don’t seem so off, because if Nugent-Hopkins can handle all of this at the age of 20 than what will he be able to do at 25?

Nugent-Hopkins plays a defensive game that far exceeds that of men much his senior. Less than 150 games into his professional career, he’s got things figured out that Sam Gagner still struggles with 300 games later. Maybe that isn’t a fair comparison to Gagner, but where would the Oilers be if they had two centres that played defence that way? Well we’re at it, where would the team be if Eberle and Hall had the same commitment to a 200-foot game that Nugent-Hopkins does?

(And, for the comments section: don’t come back at me with “minus-nine.” There’s a sweet spot of ignorance between really watching the games and really understanding the numbers, and “minus-nine” is right in the middle of it. By eye, there’s no question as to Nugent-Hopkins’ defensive commitment, and by number that goal differential is easily traceable back to Nugent-Hopkins 0.881 on-ice save percentage – and before you ask, no that’s not his fault.)

I’ve been tracking scoring chances all year and have 34 of the 35 games marked. With Nugent-Hopkins on the ice at even-strength the Oilers out-chance the opposition 164-145 (53.1% of all chances are Oilers chances). With Nugent-Hopkins off the ice, the Oilers are out-chanced 257-308 (45.5% of all chances are Oilers chances). That isn’t all him, naturally; Nugent-Hopkins has played with good players all season. On the other hand, so has Sam Gagner and in easier circumstances and he’s lagging back at just under 50 percent. (Note: I've corrected the scoring chance numbers above after making a simple subtraction error in the initial post.)

In other words, my view has come a long way from the summer of 2011. I don’t think there’s a player more vital to the Oilers than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

A Side Point

The progression in the first paragraph – from Eberle to Hall to Nugent-Hopkins – isn’t exactly random, is it? Eberle, drafted in 2008, had his breakthrough campaign at the age of 21. Hall, drafted in 2010, did the same. Nugent-Hopkins doesn’t turn 21 until April, while Nail Yakupov doesn’t hit that threshold until next October.

It takes a while for even the best junior-age players to find their stride in the NHL. And it’s a nice reminder for a guy like Yakupov, who is having a miserable year (though his five-on-five on-ice percentages – 6.49 shooting, 0.869 save – aren’t helping), that it can pay to be patient.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Smokey
December 17 2013, 08:50AM
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Nuge and Hall are the face of the franchise. Nuge is going to be scary good. Lets get him some beef on the right wing. (not saying trade Eberle)

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#2 mayorblaine
December 17 2013, 08:51AM
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well said JW.

couldn't agree more. the Wizard is a heck of a special player, not the kind you'd trade.

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#3 Velo
December 17 2013, 08:54AM
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After reading the title on Twitter, I thought you would be writing about David Perron!

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#4 David Staples
December 17 2013, 09:02AM
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Are those scoring chances numbers for all games played?

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#5 Taylor Gang
December 17 2013, 09:02AM
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Nugent-Hopkins and Hall are the only two players I would never trade. So, I guess that would make them the faces of the franchise.

In reality, it really doesn't matter who the "face" is. It's a matter of who is most likely is going to win the Oilers some hockey games.

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#7 Coppperhead
December 17 2013, 09:12AM
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Minus 9!!!!

I kid I kid. I agree that to my eye Nuge is a fantastic 200 foot player. He does a lot of the little things - stick lifts on the backcheck, subtly getting in another player's path, finding the open man quickly.

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#8 mlcselli
December 17 2013, 09:13AM
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Agree with you JW and with the previous posters re: Nuge and Hall. Faces of the franchise and should never be considered in a trade. As far as Gagner is concerned, he doesn't even belong n the same sentence as Nuge or Hall. It's not for his lack of effort, it's just that he's overplayed and underwhelming.

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#9 Craig1981
December 17 2013, 09:19AM
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Agreed +/- is overused by stats guys (trolls) WAY too much. The Oilers' goaltenders have let many goals in that have counted against skaters +/- that isn't at all fair. Plus the defense have also made painful mistakes that cost everyone on the ice a "minus". Quality of competition is another thing.

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#10 Oiler Al
December 17 2013, 09:20AM
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Everyone is yapping ... trade this guy, trade that guy etc... and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren't 200 ft. players but they have the other side... Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

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#11 borisnikov
December 17 2013, 09:27AM
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Jonathan, your pre comment comment was excellent. lol. Great stuff:)

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#12 Puck JammeR!
December 17 2013, 09:34AM
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Oiler Al wrote:

Everyone is yapping ... trade this guy, trade that guy etc... and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren't 200 ft. players but they have the other side... Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

So what's the alternative? Bashing your head against the wall over and over again with the same group of players? Or are you one of those "Petry, Omark & Marincin for elite NHL talent" guys?

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#13 borisnikov
December 17 2013, 09:34AM
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@David Staples

Mr. Staples,

Your ind. SC +/- numbers are truly individual correct? Is there any way to break your chance numbers down to 'while a player is on the ice' like Willis did (or like other advanced stats)?

edit: never mind, I'll just ask you on twitter

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#14 They're $hittie
December 17 2013, 09:41AM
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Who is your choice for face of the franchise?

Props for Hall

Trash for Nuge

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#15 Chainsawz
December 17 2013, 09:47AM
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Oiler Al wrote:

Everyone is yapping ... trade this guy, trade that guy etc... and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren't 200 ft. players but they have the other side... Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

If the players aren't working here, then who cares if they work somewhere else.

What if they never get coached into 200 ft players and the return that was turned down would have been elements of a championship team??? A guy can play what if all day long, doesn't make a point.

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#16 Alsker
December 17 2013, 09:53AM
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Well, honestly considering our shameful franchise, I believe kBlowe should our face. Why hang these problems on one of the kids? Front and center Mr.Lowes mug with the caption:"What a true loser looks like". Of course once/if we're a decent team again than I'd have to choose RNH.

EDIT: Of course it also read "what knowing nothing about winning looks like" as well.

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#17 Spydyr
December 17 2013, 09:59AM
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To me he is the only untouchable player on the team.

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#18 Spaceman Spiff
December 17 2013, 10:10AM
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I think if there’s thing as “untouchable” on the Oilers roster right now, it comes down to two players – Hall and Nuge.

Hall, for obvious reasons – he’s got the look of a thoroughbred already and he’s not even hit his peak yet.

As for Nuge, well … his skills and abilities translate into a pretty decent No. 1 centre or, a dandy No. 2 centre and every team needs that. He does so many of the little things well that go beyond scoring. It’ll be scary when he gets stronger and craftier.

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#19 vetinari
December 17 2013, 10:11AM
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A year ago, I would have said that it was Hall, Eberle, Nuge, Yak and J. Schultz that were the faces of the franchise, and while that may be true, only Nuge has been able to sustain consistent development with the change in coaches and the infusion of new players on the roster.

If I had to make a "no trade" list of Oilers as of today, I would only have Nuge, Hall, Perron and Nurse on it... I would also likely keep one of either Eberle or Yak but all others would be up for grabs if (and only if) I could get a return that fixed a problem at another position.

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#20 Lowe Expectations
December 17 2013, 10:13AM
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Of the young core, RNH is easily my favorite. Also comes across as a nice kid who wants to be better player.

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#21 Spydyr
December 17 2013, 10:15AM
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Lowe Expectations wrote:

Of the young core, RNH is easily my favorite. Also comes across as a nice kid who wants to be better player.

He is also the only one of the young core that understands the defensive aspect of the game.

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#22 Lochenzo
December 17 2013, 10:21AM
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RNH is vital given the vision of this team. The Oilers want to be a possession team and possession teams control the middle of the ice. That means you need to have centres and defencemen that can win the possession battle, and the number of guys getting this done on this team is woefully deficient.

I've advocated keeping Sam Gagner, Yakupov and Eberle. But watching this team struggle...unless they find a couple of big free agents over the summer, I don't see how they reform this roster without trading one or two of these guys. Which sucks, because if you deal somebody like Yak, you're probably giving up the best player in the deal, but you're hoping to find a better fit for your team vision.

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#23 Rama Lama
December 17 2013, 10:29AM
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Best article I have read in a very long time........almost gives me hope!

RNH stated in an interview a couple of years ago that he prides himself on being hard on the puck, especially when it comes to retrieval. At the time I thought it was odd coming from an offensive wizard, but after watching him play in person, you see his game from a whole new angle.

Watching him on television does not present the little thing that he does defensively........this kid is amazing with his hands, but especially his vision. I suspect if we had real puck moving defensemen, RNH would get another 30 points a year.

Out team is being held back offensively due to lack of puck moving defencemen and no one wears this more than the first line.

Watching J Shultz and J Petry you get the sense that either they have been instructed NOT to play offence or that they are too scared to do this. Both players, by the eye, look like a former shadow of themselves........JW how do you see this situation improving?

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#24 Space Dad
December 17 2013, 10:30AM
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Knowing just how good Hall and Nugent-Hopkins are now, the utter failure of the organization to surround them with strong veteran players is even more glaring. Consider Monahan in Calgary, Smith in Boston, and Nichushkin in Dallas. They're learning the complete game from their coaches, lessons that have been reinforced by the play and intensity of their linemates. In Edmonton, Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, AND Gagner have had to learn on their own - it should come as no surprise that the rebuilding phase of this organization has lasted far longer and has been far more painful a process than should have been necessary. Blame Tambellini, blame Lowe, blame Katz if you want. Right now its up to MacTavish and Eakins to clean up this mess, and I would say that so far (despite the team's record) they've done a pretty good job.

As JW pointed out, a veteran 2C in the same mould as Nugent-Hopkins would go a long way in that regard (sorry Samwise).

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#25 bwar
December 17 2013, 10:33AM
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So basically we have two forward piece already in place for our next rebuild: Perron and RNH.

I'm a big fan of the Nuge and moving forward I would like to see MacT build around RNH, even if that means trading away Hall, Eberle and Yakupov.

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#26 Zarny
December 17 2013, 10:44AM
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Oiler Al wrote:

Everyone is yapping ... trade this guy, trade that guy etc... and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren't 200 ft. players but they have the other side... Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

You miss the point.

The Oilers don't need better than Hall or Eberle or Nuge or Yakupov.

They need different and no matter who they trade they still have 3 others with basically the exact same skill set.

Who cares what Eberle or Yakupov becomes somewhere else if Ryan McDonagh comes to Edm? The Oilers need a shutdown D more than they need a 4th small, skilled forward.

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#27 Kenta
December 17 2013, 10:59AM
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I've never understood why Oiler fans fall in love with the wrong players - Hemsky, Gagner and now RNH.

RNH is not someone you can build a team around but is a solid complementary player. Of the 3 number 1 overall picks you have, I'd trade him before the other 2.

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#28 Zarny
December 17 2013, 11:01AM
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None of the Oilers are named Crosby, Ovechkin or Stamkos so I don't see 1 face of the franchise.

In Anh it's Getzlaf and Perry. In Chi is Toews and Kane.

In Edm, I believe it'll be Nuge and Hall. They have the most upside.

That doesn't mean Eberle or Yakupov are bad players. They are indeed very good players; but they expendable.

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#29 merfer
December 17 2013, 11:03AM
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If we trade away Eberle, Yak, and Gagner does it mean we will be a worse team. We are already the 28th team (and may soon be 29th) in the NHL so really what difference will it make. We have got to try something.

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#30 Zarny
December 17 2013, 11:04AM
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Kenta wrote:

I've never understood why Oiler fans fall in love with the wrong players - Hemsky, Gagner and now RNH.

RNH is not someone you can build a team around but is a solid complementary player. Of the 3 number 1 overall picks you have, I'd trade him before the other 2.

It's laughable you put RNH in the same sentence as Gagner and Hemsky.

With your logic Datsyuk isn't a player you can build a team around...except Det has done it.

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#31 redhot1
December 17 2013, 11:04AM
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Next home game there better be a "Fire Lowe" chant going

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#32 He Who Knows
December 17 2013, 11:06AM
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Nugent-Hopkins is a cerebral player and those are the franchise guys. You need brains over brawns to anchor the ship. Taylor Hall is more like a Ricky Bobby (Will Ferrell movie), a north south player who needs the puck on the fly. Mac would be wise to flip Eberle and package out a few others. Mac-T will be judged on his moves at the deadline, draft day and free agency. If this team does not compete at a high level next season, there could be dire consequences. The fans are also impatient now. Occupy Oilers headquarters otherwise. SHTF.

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#33 Zamboni Driver
December 17 2013, 11:12AM
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Stats-nerd argument goes like this:

a) Plus minus is meaningless because it's not always the player's fault.

b) Save percentage (!!!!!!??????) while the player is on the ice. Now that is a meaningful stat.

Save percentage.

By the goalie.

Good one.

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#34 S cottV
December 17 2013, 11:16AM
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Yes - RNH will be a top end 1C by age 25. Able to command the middle vs most opposition 1C's, pushing play mostly to the preferred end of the rink and able to handle himself in his own end as required.

While RNH is way better than Gagner in his own end, Gagner is (sorry to say but the truth) really bad, so - RNH at present, still needs to improve, but all indications are that its just a matter of some reasonable time.

RNH has similar characteristics as Gretzky (not to suggest an unfair direct comparison to the great one), so - as Gretzky was the face of the franchise, RNH could quickly evolve into this identity, representing similar things. Intelligence, highly skilled, playmaker, game breaker, modest but charismatic, quiet but effective leader, etc.

While RNH is evolving, one could argue that Hall at present, carries this label. While an excellent player who will get better, there seems to be something missing and I think its tied to leadership. Few players are exceptional born leaders and you dont really see leadership exude from Hall, in the way he plays or carries himself and this is something the "Face of the Franchise" needs to have. That being said - he is certainly a keeper and will benefit from RNH's full development into a top 1C, as when this happens - we may just see some greatness from Hall.

While RNH and Hall may be 1a and 1b, as the present face of the franchise, the team is missing another "heart and soul" warrior impact player, in 2c or 1d or in a dream world - both positions. Gretzky the 1C face had Messier the 2C warrior coming out next.

Not sure how we are going to get one or both of a warrior 2c and legit 1d, but - would be worth giving up a lot to do so.

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#35 Zamboni Driver
December 17 2013, 11:18AM
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redhot1 wrote:

Next home game there better be a "Fire Lowe" chant going

Okay so I'm compelled to comment on this.

Don't get me wrong, I think Lowe has run this ship straight into the ground ('Hey Fernando, want $4 million?!').

I also think Tambellini was a moronic puppet who probably can't look himself in the mirror anymore.

I'm a guy who uses quote marks when I speak of "The Braintrust". I talk about "Six Cups"....

At this point however, I really don't fully understand what people calling for the firing of Lowe is actually going to achieve. Sure he deserves it, but he deserved it YEARS ago. I actually think MacTavish is in charge now...and if he's NOT...then shouldn't we say "Fire Lowe AND MacT'? But no one is saying that.

Don't get it.

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#36 Kenta
December 17 2013, 11:20AM
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Zarny wrote:

It's laughable you put RNH in the same sentence as Gagner and Hemsky.

With your logic Datsyuk isn't a player you can build a team around...except Det has done it.

Yeah - RNH is the second coming of Pavel Datsyuk. LOL

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#37 oilerjed
December 17 2013, 11:20AM
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Zarny wrote:

You miss the point.

The Oilers don't need better than Hall or Eberle or Nuge or Yakupov.

They need different and no matter who they trade they still have 3 others with basically the exact same skill set.

Who cares what Eberle or Yakupov becomes somewhere else if Ryan McDonagh comes to Edm? The Oilers need a shutdown D more than they need a 4th small, skilled forward.

Careful Zarny. A team like that could very well turn into the CanSucks 2.0. Good to very good defense but not enough goals to put them over the edge. Imagine if Van didnt have Lou(or Scnieds), their GA would be up 10% and with their low goal totals you could probably take away 10-15 wins a year.

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#38 Jack Redekop
December 17 2013, 11:24AM
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In addition and possibly more than goaltending and a shut-down D, the Oilers need "net-prescence" on EVERY line - all the good teams have it - Bruins, Pens, I could go on. Nuge, Hall and Eberle, as skilled and pretty to watch as they are, scoring "chances" won't amount to enough goals because MOST goals result from when the goalie is screened/bothered, tipped in front of the net, or off a rebound. 2-3 more David Perron's, one on each line. Like Eakins says: "He will do whatever you ask him, willingly". The other 3 won't, and maybe shouldn't but at least put someone with them that will.

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#39 Craig1981
December 17 2013, 11:30AM
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Oiler Al wrote:

Everyone is yapping ... trade this guy, trade that guy etc... and what and from where are you going to get something BETTER than Hall, and Eberle? Yes they aren't 200 ft. players but they have the other side... Why can;t they be coached to play both sides of the puck, bring some toughness and grit to there game.?

What will happen you trade these guys, and then some other coach turns them into complete players and Oilers get some more 2 nd rate players in return. Cycle of rebuild never stops.

Its back to a player that almost got traded early in his career because people thought he wasn't a complete player. Yzerman....true story. This is why, despite early struggles, I believe Eakins to be a great coach for the Oilers.

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#40 Dan the Man
December 17 2013, 11:33AM
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Zamboni Driver wrote:

Stats-nerd argument goes like this:

a) Plus minus is meaningless because it's not always the player's fault.

b) Save percentage (!!!!!!??????) while the player is on the ice. Now that is a meaningful stat.

Save percentage.

By the goalie.

Good one.

If the save percentage is lower or higher than normal while a player is on the ice then chances are it will at some point revert back to normal values over an extended period of time.

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#41 Zamboni Driver
December 17 2013, 11:34AM
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Dan the Man wrote:

If the save percentage is lower or higher than normal while a player is on the ice then chances are it will at some point revert back to normal values over an extended period of time.

Totally agree.

Provided the player in question is, in fact, the Goalie.

Other than that - nonsense.

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#42 watkinator
December 17 2013, 11:36AM
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@Zamboni Driver

That's the point of talking about sv% when a player is on the ice: they mostly aren't in control over it. It's a partial explanation as to why RNH has a poor +/-, hence it's a more meaningful stat.

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#43 Zamboni Driver
December 17 2013, 11:55AM
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watkinator wrote:

That's the point of talking about sv% when a player is on the ice: they mostly aren't in control over it. It's a partial explanation as to why RNH has a poor +/-, hence it's a more meaningful stat.

Oh.

Gotcha. *

*Don't actually gotcha. But don't bother, I'm not smart enough to understand. I guess I watch hockey for enjoyment. Not math.

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#44 OilClog
December 17 2013, 11:56AM
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Nail Yakupov is not an expendable player.. Guarantee when he hits 23 we will all be belly aching if he's not an Oiler. Fact

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#45 John Kirsch
December 17 2013, 11:56AM
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Sad that Hopkins is the face of the franchise. He is a good player not an elite talent, honestly are we all watching the player. I realize he is young but believe he will be lucky to score 20 goals in any given year(unless he plays for Pitt). And if we ever make it to the playoffs I am not confident that he could compete with from a physical perspective. Hall is frustrating he could be a 50 goal man but he is all over the place too many turnovers blatant defensive lapses.

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#46 Dan the Man
December 17 2013, 11:58AM
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Zamboni Driver wrote:

Totally agree.

Provided the player in question is, in fact, the Goalie.

Other than that - nonsense.

When Dubnyk lets in a fluttering shot from the blue line it's not really the fault of the players on the ice but yet they still take a minus for it.

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#47 Zamboni Driver
December 17 2013, 12:05PM
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Dan the Man wrote:

When Dubnyk lets in a fluttering shot from the blue line it's not really the fault of the players on the ice but yet they still take a minus for it.

And the player's "Save percentage" (because that's a thing, apparently) is also affected.

My point is if you say one is meaningless, you gotta say both are. "Advanced Stats" people don't.

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#48 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
December 17 2013, 12:10PM
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Zamboni Driver wrote:

And the player's "Save percentage" (because that's a thing, apparently) is also affected.

My point is if you say one is meaningless, you gotta say both are. "Advanced Stats" people don't.

Stats guys say that every stat is meaningful. The only argument is over what the meaning is, and that's the source of so much conflict on this website and others.

+/- is meaningful, but not if you're trying to explain a player's performance independent of their teammates.

Stats guys use on-ice save percentage as a way to isolate a player's performance from his teammates'.

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#49 Ducey
December 17 2013, 12:13PM
Trash it!
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Cheers
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The more the Oilers lose, the more the negative Nellies feel emboldened to comment, and the more the the IQ around here goes down.

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#50 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
December 17 2013, 12:14PM
Trash it!
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Zamboni Driver wrote:

And the player's "Save percentage" (because that's a thing, apparently) is also affected.

My point is if you say one is meaningless, you gotta say both are. "Advanced Stats" people don't.

The closest analogy I can draw is getting your water bill in the mail. The bill tells you whether your consumption as a household went up or down in a given month. You can't tell solely from your water bill how efficient your showerhead is, but if you know a little about your toilet, your washer, and your dishwasher you can get a little closer to isolating that data.

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