OILERS V BOSTON, 2010 DRAFT

Lowetide
December 20 2013 05:13PM

One of the things that kind of irks me about Oiler fans when discussing the draft and procurement is that there's no real attempt to compare one team to another. Oiler fans know about their prospects and Leafs fans their kids, but does anyone really know ALL of the draft picks well enough to give you an accurate idea about how well each team is doing at the draft table.  Beyond that, we have to deal with the impact of development—how are these young men brought along.

With that in mind, today's post is the first of several that will attempt to shed some light on a specific draft year, and to compare the Oilers to another team who took players at a similar point in the draft. Idea being: how well is a draft year developing compared to another team's crop?

TAYLOR HALL VERSUS TYLER SEGUIN

Hall (201, 78-97-175 .870) is ahead of Seguin (235, 74-82-156 .663) and I have no hesitation whatsoever in naming Hall the superior player. Per 82gp, Hall is ahead in points 71-54 and that's significant—even at this early date. I also understand those who say we should wait for a longer period—I feel that way about the entire 2010 draft—and am certainly willing to do so a year from now (at the 5 year anniversary of the 2010 entry draft). Decision: Edmonton

 TYLER PITLICK VERSUS JARED KNIGHT

Pitlick (3, 1-0-1) has played in the NHL, Knight awaits his first time in the show. In the AHL, both have struggled to post offensive numbers (Pitlick: 116, 11-25-36 .310 and Knight 39, 4-14-18 .462) and I would suggest neither player is considered among each team's top 10 prospects at this time. One of them may have a career, but it would be impossible to identify that player from here. Decision: tie

MARTIN MARINCIN VERSUS RYAN SPOONER

It's funny, the gems of the draft (outside round 1) were taken 45-46 (Spooner going 45) in the middle of round two. Spooner (NHL: 11, 0-3-3) and Marincin (NHL: 2, 0-0-0) have already made it to the big leagues and could be regulars in a year or so for their respective teams. It is difficult to compare numbers for D to F, but Spooner is a point per game man in the AHL and Marincin has some nice boxcars (98, 10-28-38) too. I can't really say with conviction that Spooner is superior as a prospect, but Corey Pronman has him as the #1 Bruin prospect and has ranked Marincin as the Oilers #3 prospect. Decision: Boston

THE REST: BOSTON

  • Craig Cunningham has already played in the NHL (1, 0-0-0) and his AHL numbers (178, 54-42-96 .539) suggest he might have an NHL future in a checking role. He's described as an undersized forward who lacks a physical dimension (Hockey News).
  • Justin Florek (106, 18-26-44 .415) is down the depth chart but his boxcars aren't terrible. 6.04, 194.
  • Zane Gothberg has been between .917 and .920 since coming to NCAA. I'd guess a long shot but that's a good number.
  • Maxim Chudinov who is a KHL defenseman who is clearly a regular and posts some boxcars.
  • Zach Trotman is a big AHL defenseman who looks like he has some skill.

THE REST: EDMONTON

  • Curtis Hamilton has had a difficult minor league career so far. I don't think he's done enough to get a second contract.
  • Ryan Martindale (70, 7-14-21 .300) has been injury prone and like Hamilton and Pitlick hasn't been able to get the minutes in OKC.
  • Tyler Bunz has been kicking it around in the minors since turning pro, there's no real resume just a series of lines on a page.
  • Brandon Davidson has progressed since turning pro and was called up earlier this year. Still a long shot.
  • Kellen Jones is having a terrific season in the NCAA, nobody ever talks about him. Ever.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

  • BEST PLAYER: TAYLOR HALL
  • SECOND BEST PLAYER: TYLER SEGUIN
  • THIRD BEST PLAYER: RYAN SPOONER

Overall, I don't think we can say one team has a clear cut edge. I'm certainly not convinced the trio of Seguin-Spooner-Knight is superior to Hall-Marincin-Pitlick. Unless Gothberg or Martindale emerge as useful players, or another of these kids makes a giant leap, that's the contest right there (those 6 men) for the 2010 draft.

  • BOSTON BOXCARS: 248, 74-85-159 (.641) from three players
  • EDMONTON BOXCARS: 206, 79-97-176 (.854) from three players
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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Reg Dunlop
December 20 2013, 11:36PM
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@Next up, is Connor McJesus.

At some point the oil's infatuation with little fellows must end. Hawgood... same guy as Syvret, M.A.Bergeron, Schultz jr. and Larsen. The '80s are history, today small players are not appreciably quicker or faster than the bruisers but, as always, they are weaker. I want to see a competitive team here again in my lifetime, it starts with the exit of some or most of the no-hit brigade.

Just a thought... maybe Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Schultz and everyone else not named Peron should spend a Saturday night at the Beverly Crest, get liquored, scrap, and realize that physical confrontation doesn't hurt that much. Too bad that their fathers didn't knock them around more when they were kids. Would have made men out of them.

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#2 gaz
December 20 2013, 05:23PM
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Where's DSF, anyways?

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#3 Fresh Mess
December 21 2013, 09:00AM
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Watch out Reg. The bedwetters are going to start throwing around there next favourite word after racism: bullying. These kids are brain washed in school with politically correct buzz words. The effeminate pinkos have grown tired of accusing everyone of racism for the time being and have moved on to 'bullying'. Now there's a bully around ever corner. A new target for sanctimonious outrage, Hurrah !!

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#4 Krusher
December 20 2013, 05:26PM
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Maybe we can trade Pitlick and Marincin for that Omark kid everyone has been talking about in Buffalo. This would tilt this draft comparison back in the Oilers favour, wouldn't it?

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#5 Curt Brackenberry
December 21 2013, 01:13AM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

At some point the oil's infatuation with little fellows must end. Hawgood... same guy as Syvret, M.A.Bergeron, Schultz jr. and Larsen. The '80s are history, today small players are not appreciably quicker or faster than the bruisers but, as always, they are weaker. I want to see a competitive team here again in my lifetime, it starts with the exit of some or most of the no-hit brigade.

Just a thought... maybe Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Schultz and everyone else not named Peron should spend a Saturday night at the Beverly Crest, get liquored, scrap, and realize that physical confrontation doesn't hurt that much. Too bad that their fathers didn't knock them around more when they were kids. Would have made men out of them.

Yeah... and I'm sure you condone wife beating too.

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#6 mlcselli
December 21 2013, 03:17AM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

At some point the oil's infatuation with little fellows must end. Hawgood... same guy as Syvret, M.A.Bergeron, Schultz jr. and Larsen. The '80s are history, today small players are not appreciably quicker or faster than the bruisers but, as always, they are weaker. I want to see a competitive team here again in my lifetime, it starts with the exit of some or most of the no-hit brigade.

Just a thought... maybe Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Schultz and everyone else not named Peron should spend a Saturday night at the Beverly Crest, get liquored, scrap, and realize that physical confrontation doesn't hurt that much. Too bad that their fathers didn't knock them around more when they were kids. Would have made men out of them.

If you support any father knocking his son around to make men out of them, then I think you support bullying. Beating a boy doesn't make him a man. Showing strong leadership and positive role modelling does. Your comment is offensive. You can hit the trash button allay long--just don't hit your son

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#7 pelhem grenville
December 21 2013, 06:17AM
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Reg Dunlop said...

..."Too bad that their fathers didn't knock them around more when they were kids..."

REALLY?

that's harsh...if that's what your life was and is now with your own kids I can only say I'm sorry and I'm worried ...

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#8 Rheal1
December 21 2013, 07:29AM
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Why are oil websites all live in the past? Isn't the present worth it all?? Oh yes. We suck. I suppose that dreaming of top 3 picks will make us a contender in 5 years... 10+ top picks on roster? We have 6 superstars i.e. 1st rounders and look where were at. I'm afraid that you could have 12 Crosby's here on the team and oil would still suck. COACHES EAKINS & Company suck!!!

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#9 Oiler Al
December 20 2013, 10:41PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

I might be in a minority, but I'd hang onto the Larsen kid. The kid can just flat out skate with the best of them in this league. Once the Oil have a decent 1 and 2 in place, that kid could give you a rather fruitful 15 mins a night.

Reminds me of a taller Greg Hawgood type. Less icetime than he's getting now, could mean stronger minutes.

I am probably of the same minority. His skating reminds me of Duncan Keith, and his defensive game reminds me of Justin Schultz.

This guys needs to put on 10 lbs of muscle and vastly improve his defensive game, he could be a Keith.

Lets be honest his game is no different right now than that of Justin Schultz. I would hang on to this guy .

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#10 ColourMeImpressed
December 20 2013, 05:21PM
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Is this what we're reduced to cheering ourselves up with?

Sad decade to be an Oilers fan. =/

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#11 OilDieHard
December 20 2013, 05:28PM
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we got Hall out of that draft, so we should be happy. the fact we may end up with useful players like Marincin and Pitlick is a bonus. I don't think though that Martindale and C. Hamilton will get another contract from us and will become UFA's. kind of sucks when you see the player taken between Marincin and Hamilton, Tyler Toffoli, have so much early success with the Kings. it figures, doesn't it?

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#12 Mac962
December 20 2013, 05:46PM
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Where is Pitlick already ? Get your butt healthy kid.

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#13 Retsinnab5
December 20 2013, 06:26PM
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Who thinks Fedun should be in the lineup over Larsen/Potter?

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#14 SaskFan
December 20 2013, 08:31PM
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Do you seriously think that if the dice had fallen otherwise, and Seguin had ended up in Edmonton and Hall in Boston, that Hall's counting numbers would still be better? Of course we will never know, but in truth its not that far of a stretch to think that Hall would currently be a Stanley Cup Champion and Seguin would have a better PPG pace than Hall.

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#15 Mikey
December 21 2013, 07:53AM
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Ari Gold wrote:

Found it! Michelle Jenneke, Australian hurdler. I love her, seriously.

Meh, you must love butter too. Great body tho.

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#16 Clarko
December 21 2013, 09:16AM
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Fresh Mess wrote:

Watch out Reg. The bedwetters are going to start throwing around there next favourite word after racism: bullying. These kids are brain washed in school with politically correct buzz words. The effeminate pinkos have grown tired of accusing everyone of racism for the time being and have moved on to 'bullying'. Now there's a bully around ever corner. A new target for sanctimonious outrage, Hurrah !!

Tell that to the families of about 2,200 kids in the U.S who committed suicide because of bullying last year. Or maybe the 160,000 kids that stay home every day because of the fear of bullying.

Just because you put 'bullying' in quotation marks doesn't make it any less real. What may seem like nothing to you might mean life or death for a kid.

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#17 6 ring circus
December 21 2013, 12:00PM
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How would this team look if we had Seguin, RNH and Galchenyuk as our 1st,2nd and 3rd line centers? Then the Oilers could have traded Gagner away for a top pick 4 years ago when he still had some value and a decent contract,instead we had Tambellini as our GM and he was afraid of his own shadow and never made any decent trades or signed any decent free agents,and who hired Tambellini? Kevin Lowe who is president of hockey operations and the Oilers still find themselves at the bottom of the league,how he still has a job is beyond me,If missing the playoffs 8 years in a row does not get him fired, I don't know what will.

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#18 Bucknuck
December 20 2013, 06:08PM
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Mac962 wrote:

Where is Pitlick already ? Get your butt healthy kid.

You said it. I was impressed with his play. I love the way he hits people.

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#20 Mac962
December 20 2013, 06:22PM
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O.N. Merry Christmas to you all. Its always fun reading all of our thoughts as Micro-Mangers. some good, sam not so much.

But the bottom line is 99% of us want our Oilers to compete. As much as we knock them most if not all os us wish we were in their shoes.

Hopefully they get there soon, we are diehards and cheer for anyone in a Oiler Jersey, they are our boys. Yeah - Edmonton isnt the best place in the world to play or live, i was born and raised and keep saying that's it i am moving. But you know what. I am here still. It's my city, it's my Team and i bleed with every lose and hold my head high with every infrequent win. But we will be back.

I am one of the unfortunate ones who is not home for Christmas as its back to the airport on Xmas eve for flight to work in the middle of nowhere. But i still follow ON on my IPAD , and at coffee break and lunch break and in-between. [ I am the boss lol ].

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

Be well and GO OILERS !!!

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#21 Taylor Gang
December 20 2013, 06:58PM
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gaz wrote:

Where's DSF, anyways?

He can't really pick flaws out of the Oilers anymore... The list would be too long

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#22 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
December 20 2013, 10:00PM
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I might be in a minority, but I'd hang onto the Larsen kid. The kid can just flat out skate with the best of them in this league. Once the Oil have a decent 1 and 2 in place, that kid could give you a rather fruitful 15 mins a night.

Reminds me of a taller Greg Hawgood type. Less icetime than he's getting now, could mean stronger minutes.

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#23 K_Mart
December 20 2013, 10:09PM
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If the NHL was non contact, we'd be amazing.

Sometimes I think Eberle believes hockey is non contact. We are crap. That is all.

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#24 OilDieHard
December 20 2013, 10:30PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

I might be in a minority, but I'd hang onto the Larsen kid. The kid can just flat out skate with the best of them in this league. Once the Oil have a decent 1 and 2 in place, that kid could give you a rather fruitful 15 mins a night.

Reminds me of a taller Greg Hawgood type. Less icetime than he's getting now, could mean stronger minutes.

too bad we couldn't make him into a forward the way he skates! but then where would we play him if he can't play on the top lines and he isn't big enough to bang and crash on the 4th line?

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#26 Ari Gold
December 21 2013, 12:35AM
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Found it! Michelle Jenneke, Australian hurdler. I love her, seriously.

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#27 kale
December 21 2013, 01:15AM
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@kale

having said that, I do believe he has great talent, he just is not using it

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#28 K_Mart
December 21 2013, 07:19AM
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Great idea for a series LT. If your draft classes end up being among the top in the league for several seasons in a row, maybe there's still some hope. Man, we could use a hidden gem real bad.

Moroz is playing well as a man against boys, but I think he has a shot at being a solid third line penalty killer with a good physical element and enough offense to at least hold his own.

Could project to be a great +/- player. Briefly, on the +/- stat: I feel like this stat isn't used correctly.

For one, the minimum sample size should always be at least 164ish games. Two, it can only be used in comparison to teammates, not other players on other teams. Mainly because no matter how good you are, if the other four men and goalie on the ice with you are dreadful, your +/- will never stack up league wide.

But over enough games, especially 200+, it will tell you if a player is developing in the right direction despite the quality of their line mates. Hall's history is good. -9 as a rookie, -3 as a sophomore, +5 in the lockout shortened season. And -10 so far this year(anomaly I hope, and if he gets that back to zero it would be a massively positive sign). Hall seems to be on the ice for every single EN goal and he was dreadful at centre. I have faith regardless. He's so dynamic, that if anyone on this roster can drag this team out of the mud, it's him. This year he needs to start to take over games against even the top end teams. He was -6 after seven games, and was a + player after that until that first period in Boston the other night. This guy has shown to me in his career so far that no matter how brutal his team is, he will find a way to score more than the opposition. Unfortunately, like stamkos, even if he recorded 100+ pts and a nice big +/- the team surrounding him is so bad that he'll likely never be able to drag us to the playoffs, let alone a cup. Gagner, Yak/ebs, and Jultz need to be shipped out in order to bring in the right pieces. Eberle has been my fav oiler for a while, but his refusal to acknowledge that hockey is a contact sport has me wondering... I think the Eastern *GM's value Eberle higher than Hall, and that is why I say deal him. He will give us the best return. I don't want him gone, and if there's a deal out there that only requires Gags,Yak,Jultz,+ a 1st, and gives us what we are horribly missing, great, but I seriously doubt it.

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#29 K_Mart
December 21 2013, 09:12AM
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Fresh Mess wrote:

Watch out Reg. The bedwetters are going to start throwing around there next favourite word after racism: bullying. These kids are brain washed in school with politically correct buzz words. The effeminate pinkos have grown tired of accusing everyone of racism for the time being and have moved on to 'bullying'. Now there's a bully around ever corner. A new target for sanctimonious outrage, Hurrah !!

Are you defending someone who suggested the oilers should've been beaten as children?

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#30 Reg Dunlop
December 21 2013, 11:39AM
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Nation citizens, relax. I would never condone beating a kid. I just said knock them around a bit. As far as bullying is concerned, @Clarko, @Micselli and other sensitive souls here, I trust that you are consistant and you approve of the message sent by the oil. Be good hosts, play fair, within the rules, never take liberties, lose with a smile and congratulate the victors(hip hip hooray!) and never do anything to intimidate the opposition as that would send the message that bullying is ok. I am sure that none of you are clamoring for an oiler defender like Pronger or Muni or Marchment. I know that you all vehemently disapprove of the actions of players like Messier or Howe. I know that if someday the oil have a successful 'Punch Imlach' type of squad(can't beat them on the ice if you can't beat them in the alley) you will all join voices together crying for a return to the fair play days of Gags and Schultz jr. Bullying at all ages is unacceptable, right? It has no place in schools, the workplace, the ice rink, on your daily commute. You would never flash the finger and yell at another driver, that's an attempt at intimidation. You would never engage in cyber bullying, I just know you are above using hurtful words here on ON. I am so proud to be here to learn from such altruists.

So when those St. Louis bullies pecker slap us tonight we can take comfort in the knowledge that, while losing every game, we are sending the good message to the world.

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#32 Mac962
December 20 2013, 06:04PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Playing tonight with OKC from what we hear.

Seems like forever since he played. Work hard son.

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#33 westcoastoil
December 20 2013, 06:25PM
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gaz wrote:

Where's DSF, anyways?

Actually he deserves some props for not piling on with a bunch of "I told you so's".

Either that, or like a growing number of Oiler fans apathy has taken over.

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#34 The Swarm
December 20 2013, 06:26PM
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Who cares about the draft, or the Oilers for that matter (at least until October when they play their next meaningful game).

Who's the hot hurdler?

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#35 westcoastoil
December 20 2013, 06:28PM
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westcoastoil wrote:

Actually he deserves some props for not piling on with a bunch of "I told you so's".

Either that, or like a growing number of Oiler fans apathy has taken over.

Just to finish that properly - thank you LT for your continuous stream of thoughtful articles. If only the folks on Kingsway were as good at their jobs as you and all the gang here at ON.

When is Willis taking over for Gare anyway?

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#36 K_Mart
December 20 2013, 07:31PM
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http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=8DIFeOkD_dc&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D8DIFeOkD_dc%26feature%3Dyoutu.be#

Reality

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#37 K_Mart
December 20 2013, 07:46PM
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@gaz

Everywhere. At this point his comments just blend right in.

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#38 Jaroslav Pouzar
December 20 2013, 08:54PM
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Season's a bust... let's get bad for Ekblad.

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#39 Oilers G- Nations Poet Laureate
December 20 2013, 09:29PM
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Jaroslav Pouzar wrote:

Season's a bust... let's get bad for Ekblad.

What do you mean "Get"?

We are already horrid

We Bad For Ekblad

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#40 Wintoon
December 21 2013, 06:33AM
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I have, for some time now, felt frustrated by the Oilers performance on draft day. When they have been drafting in the #1 slot or near it, they have had the opportunity to focus in on and really go for a second high quality pick. They have never done this. As a result, the number of meaningful and contributing assets acquired outside the first round is extremely low. I don't know what the expectation is in terms of useful, NHL quality assets expected from each draft but, if by focussing in and getting 2 per draft as suggested above, I have no doubt the Oilers would have greater depth within their organization and would be experiencing more success on the ice.

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#41 Edsez
December 21 2013, 07:58AM
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"Overall, I don't think we can say one team has a clear cut edge." ....... likely the only time this season this will be said comparing the Oilers to the Bruins

@ Bolt Van der Huge

that's lust ....... but I can relate

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#42 Yaz
December 21 2013, 08:02AM
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RE tonites game...Which is higher ..Hitchcock's win % vs the Oil or Dubnyk's save %..Sure glad we did not look at hiring the guy we NEVER beat..oh I forgot he hasn't got 6 rings

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#43 TayLordBalls
December 21 2013, 09:48AM
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Perhaps we could create a FrankenOiler by chopping off the parts we want and sewing them onto others!

Or ... with MacT now in charge, they can start to pick the type of player they actually want ... bigger, stronger, harder to play against.

Buck up! It's going to take MacT several years to get the drafted players he wants.

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#44 nWo4life
December 21 2013, 11:35AM
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@Reg Dunlop

Couldn't have said it better myself.

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#45 tileguy
December 21 2013, 11:43AM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

He means get rid of him.....implying you wouldn't want Larsen and Schultz on the same team........choose one or the other.

One or none or both may pan out. We have to wait for the results on this one.

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#46 Mac962
December 20 2013, 06:24PM
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Mac962 wrote:

O.N. Merry Christmas to you all. Its always fun reading all of our thoughts as Micro-Mangers. some good, sam not so much.

But the bottom line is 99% of us want our Oilers to compete. As much as we knock them most if not all os us wish we were in their shoes.

Hopefully they get there soon, we are diehards and cheer for anyone in a Oiler Jersey, they are our boys. Yeah - Edmonton isnt the best place in the world to play or live, i was born and raised and keep saying that's it i am moving. But you know what. I am here still. It's my city, it's my Team and i bleed with every lose and hold my head high with every infrequent win. But we will be back.

I am one of the unfortunate ones who is not home for Christmas as its back to the airport on Xmas eve for flight to work in the middle of nowhere. But i still follow ON on my IPAD , and at coffee break and lunch break and in-between. [ I am the boss lol ].

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

Be well and GO OILERS !!!

K- So my spelling is off - rolled cabbage rolls and drinking beers give me a break.

Peace out boys.

Mac

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#47 Craig1981
December 20 2013, 08:06PM
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Tyler Toffoli taken one later at 47th was a gem of a pick too.

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#48 OilDieHard
December 21 2013, 12:22AM
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but if you go to some Oiler hockey boards, posters are actually upset that the Oilers traded Omark without giving him what they perceived as a fair shot with the big club. same people that squawked when Tobias Rieder was traded and when Toni Rajala was let go....I just don't understand some Oiler fans sometimes? I thought we didn't like having too many "smurfs" on our team, yet we complain when they are all let go?

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#49 kale
December 21 2013, 01:13AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Yeah, agreed. Pure chaos, but you could have one of them on the team. Would need to chase Justin Schultz, though.

Quite frankly, the best I have seen J. Schultz play in a long long time was following his gargantuan error last game. He just seems so disengaged out there.

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#50 Old School G
December 21 2013, 01:30AM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

I might be in a minority, but I'd hang onto the Larsen kid. The kid can just flat out skate with the best of them in this league. Once the Oil have a decent 1 and 2 in place, that kid could give you a rather fruitful 15 mins a night.

Reminds me of a taller Greg Hawgood type. Less icetime than he's getting now, could mean stronger minutes.

I like the comparison. The question needs to be asked. Would you keep Larsen or JSchultz?

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