OILERS V BOSTON, 2010 DRAFT

Lowetide
December 20 2013 05:13PM

One of the things that kind of irks me about Oiler fans when discussing the draft and procurement is that there's no real attempt to compare one team to another. Oiler fans know about their prospects and Leafs fans their kids, but does anyone really know ALL of the draft picks well enough to give you an accurate idea about how well each team is doing at the draft table.  Beyond that, we have to deal with the impact of development—how are these young men brought along.

With that in mind, today's post is the first of several that will attempt to shed some light on a specific draft year, and to compare the Oilers to another team who took players at a similar point in the draft. Idea being: how well is a draft year developing compared to another team's crop?

TAYLOR HALL VERSUS TYLER SEGUIN

Hall (201, 78-97-175 .870) is ahead of Seguin (235, 74-82-156 .663) and I have no hesitation whatsoever in naming Hall the superior player. Per 82gp, Hall is ahead in points 71-54 and that's significant—even at this early date. I also understand those who say we should wait for a longer period—I feel that way about the entire 2010 draft—and am certainly willing to do so a year from now (at the 5 year anniversary of the 2010 entry draft). Decision: Edmonton

 TYLER PITLICK VERSUS JARED KNIGHT

Pitlick (3, 1-0-1) has played in the NHL, Knight awaits his first time in the show. In the AHL, both have struggled to post offensive numbers (Pitlick: 116, 11-25-36 .310 and Knight 39, 4-14-18 .462) and I would suggest neither player is considered among each team's top 10 prospects at this time. One of them may have a career, but it would be impossible to identify that player from here. Decision: tie

MARTIN MARINCIN VERSUS RYAN SPOONER

It's funny, the gems of the draft (outside round 1) were taken 45-46 (Spooner going 45) in the middle of round two. Spooner (NHL: 11, 0-3-3) and Marincin (NHL: 2, 0-0-0) have already made it to the big leagues and could be regulars in a year or so for their respective teams. It is difficult to compare numbers for D to F, but Spooner is a point per game man in the AHL and Marincin has some nice boxcars (98, 10-28-38) too. I can't really say with conviction that Spooner is superior as a prospect, but Corey Pronman has him as the #1 Bruin prospect and has ranked Marincin as the Oilers #3 prospect. Decision: Boston

THE REST: BOSTON

  • Craig Cunningham has already played in the NHL (1, 0-0-0) and his AHL numbers (178, 54-42-96 .539) suggest he might have an NHL future in a checking role. He's described as an undersized forward who lacks a physical dimension (Hockey News).
  • Justin Florek (106, 18-26-44 .415) is down the depth chart but his boxcars aren't terrible. 6.04, 194.
  • Zane Gothberg has been between .917 and .920 since coming to NCAA. I'd guess a long shot but that's a good number.
  • Maxim Chudinov who is a KHL defenseman who is clearly a regular and posts some boxcars.
  • Zach Trotman is a big AHL defenseman who looks like he has some skill.

THE REST: EDMONTON

  • Curtis Hamilton has had a difficult minor league career so far. I don't think he's done enough to get a second contract.
  • Ryan Martindale (70, 7-14-21 .300) has been injury prone and like Hamilton and Pitlick hasn't been able to get the minutes in OKC.
  • Tyler Bunz has been kicking it around in the minors since turning pro, there's no real resume just a series of lines on a page.
  • Brandon Davidson has progressed since turning pro and was called up earlier this year. Still a long shot.
  • Kellen Jones is having a terrific season in the NCAA, nobody ever talks about him. Ever.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

  • BEST PLAYER: TAYLOR HALL
  • SECOND BEST PLAYER: TYLER SEGUIN
  • THIRD BEST PLAYER: RYAN SPOONER

Overall, I don't think we can say one team has a clear cut edge. I'm certainly not convinced the trio of Seguin-Spooner-Knight is superior to Hall-Marincin-Pitlick. Unless Gothberg or Martindale emerge as useful players, or another of these kids makes a giant leap, that's the contest right there (those 6 men) for the 2010 draft.

  • BOSTON BOXCARS: 248, 74-85-159 (.641) from three players
  • EDMONTON BOXCARS: 206, 79-97-176 (.854) from three players
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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 a lg dubl dubl
December 21 2013, 05:59AM
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It would have been kind of neat if MacT traded for Segin this past summer.

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#52 Crackenbury
December 21 2013, 06:02AM
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After reading the article my take is entirely different. Outside of the the top 2 picks for each team, the Oilers were massacred by Boston in the 2010 draft. That's the ongoing theme with the Oilers. It's easy to pick early. That being said I have great hopes for 2013.

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#53 Gored 1970
December 21 2013, 08:41AM
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I'm not sure it is possible to compare Hall with Seguin on the basis of points production early in their careers. Hall went to a team desperate for talent and was given every opportunity to score - top line, PP etc. Seguin went to an established team and started on the third line with limited minutes and limited PP opportunities.

The Canucks have 19 points in their last 11 games and are just barely hanging onto a playoff spot whereas the Oil have 25 points in total. Shows there is a lot of work to be done before the Oilers can seriously be considered a playoff contender.

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#54 hall the time
December 21 2013, 09:12AM
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The oilers need to watch some of last years pp video.

Also, while their at it watch and learn from the best Corsby or Ovechkin how they work hard for their goals and how DECEIVINGLY!!! HARD their shots are, they don't have highlight goals all the time but they DECEIVE!!! the goalies.

The Oilers need to work on their shots every day all day until they start becoming a winning team, then... they can take some time off.

Halls goal was sweet against the Avs.

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#55 TayLordBalls
December 21 2013, 09:44AM
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bump

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#56 RexHolez
December 21 2013, 09:54AM
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Ekblad, Nurse, Klefbom.... By the time our forwards are conditioned to loosing and ready to chase after the big contract in free agency out defence is gonna start looking decent.

Next time we rebuild can we maybe plan it out?

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#57 tileguy
December 21 2013, 10:18AM
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@Lowetide

L.T. what exactly do you mean by this quote"

"Would need to chase Justin Schultz, though."

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#58 Rama Lama
December 21 2013, 10:53AM
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TayLordBalls wrote:

Perhaps we could create a FrankenOiler by chopping off the parts we want and sewing them onto others!

Or ... with MacT now in charge, they can start to pick the type of player they actually want ... bigger, stronger, harder to play against.

Buck up! It's going to take MacT several years to get the drafted players he wants.

I'm sure hoping that we are not going to re-build our re-build? I'm praying that somehow we get a player that can play safe, simple defence?

Most team build from the back-end but not the Oilers.......damn conventional wisdom we are going to do exactly the opposite of what successful team have built in the past.

I sure hope that Mac T asks Klowe what to do on each player selection.........and then does exactly the opposite.

By the way where are Klowe, Mac T, lately? Hiding?

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#59 camdog
December 21 2013, 11:01AM
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This article irks me. If you are going to compare the Oilers drafting record to other teams, you have to do it over a 5 year span, such as from 2005-10. To just pick and choose one year is incorporating statistical bias. To remove the bias you must compare multiple years. If the Oilers were a half decent drafting team they would have never dropped as "LOWE" as they did in the standings.

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#60 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
December 21 2013, 11:08AM
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hall the time wrote:

The oilers need to watch some of last years pp video.

Also, while their at it watch and learn from the best Corsby or Ovechkin how they work hard for their goals and how DECEIVINGLY!!! HARD their shots are, they don't have highlight goals all the time but they DECEIVE!!! the goalies.

The Oilers need to work on their shots every day all day until they start becoming a winning team, then... they can take some time off.

Halls goal was sweet against the Avs.

I think people often confuse the ability to shoot hard with the ability to get a shot off. Most great shooters have two major skills, 1) the ability to get a shot off when being checked by NHL calibre defenders,and 2) shot accuracy.

David Perron is an example of a guy who can get a shot off from anywhere anytime, in a tight space, while being checked, while moving , etc.

Nail Yakupov for example has a harder shot, but it will take him some time to learn how to get the shot off against NHL competition.

Of course there are the Al Macinnis's of the world whose production was a result of a hard shot, but most snipers, have a quick and accurate shot and know how to get a shot off....not necessarily a hard or heavy shot.

(Then there are those guys with the uncanny ability to find open space and be at the right place at the right time....another skill Yakupov needs to work at).

Edit: watch Temmu Selanene sometime...he's a master at knowing how to get a shot off....as is Jagr......it's fascinating to watch them...

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#61 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
December 21 2013, 11:21AM
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tileguy wrote:

L.T. what exactly do you mean by this quote"

"Would need to chase Justin Schultz, though."

He means get rid of him.....implying you wouldn't want Larsen and Schultz on the same team........choose one or the other.

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#62 wizeman
December 21 2013, 12:05PM
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For the last seven years oilers have had three #1 picks which maggie the monkey could have made. 50 more picks in those seven years have given them no current roster players (except Petry, who is Tom Gilbert 2.0) and no player currently pushing an existing oiler for playing time. In any large hockey market the media and fans would call for a complete overhaul of the scouting staff. Seven years with the current scouting department is enough.

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#63 Quicksilver ballet
December 21 2013, 12:55PM
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Reg Dunlop wrote:

At some point the oil's infatuation with little fellows must end. Hawgood... same guy as Syvret, M.A.Bergeron, Schultz jr. and Larsen. The '80s are history, today small players are not appreciably quicker or faster than the bruisers but, as always, they are weaker. I want to see a competitive team here again in my lifetime, it starts with the exit of some or most of the no-hit brigade.

Just a thought... maybe Hall, Ebs, Nuge, Schultz and everyone else not named Peron should spend a Saturday night at the Beverly Crest, get liquored, scrap, and realize that physical confrontation doesn't hurt that much. Too bad that their fathers didn't knock them around more when they were kids. Would have made men out of them.

He's no Popeye on skates i'll agree, but you can't ignore his ability to get around the rink. The kid, to me, isn't all that different than that Karlsson kid in Ottawa. He may not have the offensive talent of a Karlson, but being able to get around the rink like him would help any team. Give him time to gain some confidence.

Like your analogy on violence. When it comes to this great game, intimidation has always altered performance. It's always the best option, when trailing on the scoreboard. It's always harder to hit the net after sustaining a hairline fracture to your forearm.

King of the mountain!

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#64 Quicksilver ballet
December 21 2013, 12:58PM
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Old School G wrote:

I like the comparison. The question needs to be asked. Would you keep Larsen or JSchultz?

There's room for both. We would need Petry to continue to bulk up and play more physical.

If Petry isn't into that, then Jeff has got to go. Larsen and Shultz have the offensive potential that Jeff Petry doesn't seem to have.

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#65 Reg Dunlop
December 21 2013, 03:30PM
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@Quicksilver ballet

Toughness comes in 2 forms, physical and mental. Not every player has the physicality of Dave Brown and not everyone has the stoic nature of Bob Gainey. Players that have both mental and physical toughness are rare and valuable, players with neither gift are in the wrong league. Remember when Salming and Hammarstrom arrived? Having Don Saleski types threaten both with harm caused the one with mental toughness to eventually become one of the toughest, dirtiest and best players ever and caused the other to run home. Do our youngsters have the capacity to become physically or mentally tougher? At the moment, it seems doubtful. I think a little less finesse and a bit more character is needed.

After all the above, I have to say that I like the way Larsen plays and I agree that he could be a piece of the puzzle IF missing pieces are added elsewhere. Cheers and have a happy Festivus.

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#66 pelhem grenville
December 21 2013, 03:32PM
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reg...

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