TIGHTEN UP

Lowetide
December 24 2013 10:09AM

Sam Gagner has had a miserable six months. In late September, the young Oilers center suffered a significant injury and it has taken him forever to come back to something resembling normal. In fact, I'd wager most fans would agree with me in saying last night was the first time we got to see Gagner in his typical role: creative, offensive center with an ability to make plays and contribute to offense. It's been a long road.

IN THE BEGINNING

During the summer, new GM Craig MacTavish identified Gagner as a well-respected man about the Oiler room. This was an issue because there were some bad vibes in the locker room:

  • MacTavish: “It’s incumbent on everybody in that locker-room to really work to provide the type of working environment we want. The type of productive, hard-working, non-complaining culture we want. And I’m going to be diligent in my decision-making in terms of weeding out the complainers.”

The problem with Gagner has never been attitude or offense, but rather defense. After returning too early from the injury, Gagner was the culprit on a legion of goals-against and seemed to be ignoring responsibility and turning away from the slot while allowing free looks for opposition snipers. Galling for fans, and this had to be a major problem for the organization.

I mean, riddle me this: what action DO you take with a player known for intelligent play who is making simple, basic errors? The Oilers were extremely patient—too patient—before relegating him to limited duty on the fourth line. The play didn't improve, but the negative impact was reduced because he was now far from the important part of the game. 

Gagner's Corsi For % this season (5x5) is 47%, a smart improvement over last season's 42.9% (source: Extra Skater) which means he's heading in a better direction when on the ice, but these damn massive breakdowns are causing a frigging in the riggin'.

TIGHTEN UP 

Sam Gagner has never been known as a strong defensive center, and the problems he is encountering this season are his natural weakness. Last night, for the first time this season, Gagner wasn't wearing anything that might reduce his comfort and visibility.

It looked better. In my opinion. And I'm not alone.

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey: #89 Sam Gagner, 7. Strong 200-foot game that included some effective & committed own-zone play. Scored a beauty on a tic-tac-toe play. 11/18=61% on faceoffs.

That's a wonderful bit of prose, well-earned and a long time coming.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I've always believed the worst time to give up on a player is when he's underperforming because of injury or another identifiable reason (I had to throw that in there because once upon a time Ron Low/Miro Satan). Gagner's performance last night suggests the new free range Gagner is back to last season's levels.

I remain convinced the Oilers should keep Gagner, although perhaps a move to wing is a better option than keeping him at center. Agree?

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 ColourMeImpressed
December 24 2013, 10:12AM
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I am going to require more than a good performance against a struggling team on its second night of a back-to-back on the road, before I reverse my condemnation of Gagner.

He flat out cheated for points last year, not even trying defensively, to get his contract.

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#2 Al 77
December 24 2013, 11:12AM
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Sorry Lowetide one good game doesn't erase the 5 or 6 years worth of a sample size of bad face off %,and at best questionable decision making on the defensive end we have seen his entire career so far

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#3 Ivan Drago
December 24 2013, 10:21AM
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Sure. Gagner can play on my team. On the wing. On the third line. At a reduced salary. Decent one-dimensional player. Not a fit for the needs of the team.

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#4 Sizzay
December 24 2013, 11:16AM
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LT,

I respectfully disagree on gagner. There are things to like but not at the point of keeping him. I wanted him traded At his high point last year.

Our top 6 is too small and similar. Nuge, hall, ebs, gagner, yakupov and Perron

We need a two way centre. It doesn't have to be an all star just a responsible player that can contribute 40 to 50 points, like gagner but also play D and add size.

I would much rather ship gagner out then yak or ebs.

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#5 Eberle4MVP
December 24 2013, 10:50AM
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Id keep Hemmer over Gags. He isnt good enough to be on this team long term. He has talant and skill that another team would strongly benefit from, as an addition to a team with size, but we need to move some of the smurfs for some skilled size. He cant get anyone off the puck along the boards like Hemsky can, and a one-game sample of him actually back-checking is not a career made. He simply sucks defensively, and we need better characters to be able to defend since our blueline isnt exactly strong.

We are all guilty of wanting to run Hemsky out of town, but since hes shown that his shoulders are no longer made of glass, he is very much a great part of this team. Secondary scoring, fantastic hands, and a willingness to go into the rough areas, something maybe one or two other Oilers are willing to do.

Trade Gags, or dont re-sign him is my opinion. His role needs to be replaced with some more size.

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#6 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
December 24 2013, 10:40AM
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Play him at 2C....shelter his minutes.....then when he's hitting his stride. ....trade him at the deadline like you should have done with Hemsky last year!....Not because they aren't good players, but because they are redundant on our team and when they are healthy and playing well they have some value in the trade market.

However, I think that Oilers brass are a little desperate because of the current state of affairs (29th place team) and will not have the good sense and courage to trade a good player while he's playing good. On the bright side, we have no hope for a playoff push, so there is no need to retain veterans to support a playoff run like we did for that dismal 10 game stretch at the end of last season

So no LT, I do not agree. I sometimes think that the stats guys want to win the CORSI Cup while I want to win the Stanley Cup.

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#7 Ducey
December 24 2013, 10:28AM
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I'd leave him at center until they can upgrade with someone better. And no, Arcobello is not that player.

Your top 4 wingers going forward have to be Perron, Hall, Ebs, and Yak. They are all more dynamic players than Sam.

Ultimately, he is likely the guy that gets traded. Might as well let him build his value for the rest of the season.

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#8 MessyEH!
December 24 2013, 11:42AM
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Gagner is a turd, you just keep polishing him Lowetide.

I'd rather see him shipped out. His contract is what prevents him from being a second, or third line winger. Too much cash for a one demensional player. If he was 4 million instead of 5 I could see it. I would sign Hemsky to 4 million for 2 more years and trade Gagner for some reasonably priced depth players.

We need to trim the fat to afford a #1 Dmen. We also need some more actual NHL players who make less then 2 million a year.

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#9 season not played
December 24 2013, 11:22AM
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Should have traded his rights this past summer. His defficiencies as a player have been well documented.

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#10 Citizen David
December 24 2013, 10:17AM
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Gagner playing his best is an effective player that can play on my team. The problem is our list of players we want to keep is getting really long which means that help will have to come from free agency, OKC, and personal development.

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#11 nunyour
December 24 2013, 11:03AM
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I will cut him some slack for the broken jaw,but that didn't stop him from back checking,he is to inconsistent,just like Hemsky,every once and awhile you see their A game,you need players that bring it every nite,especally when they make 5 mil a year.Watched a show last night,the coach was giving the team crap,said it's not my job to motivate you,motivate yourself!!!

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#12 David S
December 24 2013, 11:55AM
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Gagner's defensive liabilities wouldn't be near the problem we're seeing this year if we even had league average D. The fact we don't is simply magnifying his natural Achilles heel.

However D can be taught and from what I've seen, he's trying within the limits of a (very) difficult injury. As the season goes on and the new systems become instinctual and he fully heals, just watch him improve.

First night without the dog collar and he's a far better player. Yeah, small sample size but the difference was noticeable. Where did he score his goal last night? That's right, in the "high danger/greasy" part of town. And how many players do we have that'll go to those areas, you know, where most goals are scored?

All you guys are hot to trade a high value player (yes, he is), but if his game comes back and improves (which it will - he's 23 FFS) you better be sure you get fair value for the player he can be, not the player he's been for half an injury throttled season.

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#13 Walter Sobchak
December 24 2013, 09:54PM
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@David S

Re-Comment # 14

Good points Dave, I usually agree with a lot of your entries, but I think we’re going to have to disagree on this.

The first point, how is the Defensemen responsible for Gagner’s man? How does the defenseman actually play into Gagner’s defensive decisions or play?

My issue is this, Gagner’s goes to the wrong man constantly, almost without fail.

He rarely is in the right position in his zone for a center, has repeatedly picked up the wrong man on cycles, is far too easily boxed out by other players & his player positioning is terrible for a center, (he’s always on the wrong side of the puck).

His back checking is as bad, His overall defensive stats are always weak, MC79 has done some great work on this, one thing that’s has been consistent is Gagner’s weak defensive play.

Second point –agree & disagree here, You can only teach defense to players that want to learn defense, there is also some inherent skill in being able to anticipate and read coverage quickly, some have it, other don’t, that instinct can’t be taught. After 7 years the one thing that has been consitant is his weak defensive play, do you think in his 8th year he’ll have an epiphany?

Third point – So the one night they beat the hell out of a tired team with arguable the worst NHL goalie is enough of a sample size to tell you Gagner is going to start playing in the paint?? In 7 years have you ever seen Gagner consistently play that way? I’ve been an Oiler fan since the inception into the NHL; I have never witnessed Gagner as a crease crasher? Not even comparable to a player like Perron, let alone a player like Smyth.

Lastly, even leaving this season out of it, his stats in the NHL for defense is weak, very weak. I do think he’s a really good offensive player, one of our best & most consistent, I won’t argue that.

My take on it – The Oilers need a solid two way center, one that can match up to Thornton, Kopitar, Toews , Backes without being completely dominated.

The Oilers have to get bigger, faster, and stronger. This is not Gagner’s best attributes; they can lose Gagner’s offense to gain a better defensive player.

Management has to decide if they want players that will make the team better or players that have great character & are great people to be around.

Enjoy your holidays.

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#14 Tay C
December 24 2013, 10:29AM
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He's had a different head coach every year he's been in the league and he still (somehow) manages to progress. His jaw has clearly been an issue all year, he'll be a heluva player yet, I think it should happen when he's still on my team.

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#15 Spydyr
December 24 2013, 12:13PM
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David S wrote:

So what you're saying is you know more than MacT or he's basically unmovable, in which case this argument is moot.

Everyone is movable.

Gagner should have been moved years ago.

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#16 Taylor Gang
December 24 2013, 12:18PM
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Trade Gagner to a team that is looking to sacrifice a two way centre for some offense

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#17 Serious Gord
December 24 2013, 12:10PM
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Should have traded his a$$ two years ago.

MacT should have traded him the day he (officially) became GM but instead he declared him to be a cornerstone player and signed him to a millstone contract.

Putting him on the wing is worse than useless - he's too small to dig for the puck. Third line centre on a top tier team at best.

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#18 Spydyr
December 24 2013, 01:12PM
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BLAKPOO wrote:

But it doesn't include special teams contributions, or specify line mates and match ups.

+/- is a garbage stat.

If you cannot see Gagner is weak defensively nothing anyone says can change your opinion of him.

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#19 Spydyr
December 24 2013, 12:06PM
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Trade him as part of a package for either a top four defensmen or a real 2C.

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#20 Saytalk
December 24 2013, 06:23PM
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This team has been abysmal for four going on five years now and you're still serving the KoolAid LoweTide. If we keep small one-dimensional players and pay them $4.8M while the first overall picks keep getting $6M handed to them, how do you expect this team to ever climb out of the toilet?

47% Corsi for any second line player on a big contract is not an improvement, it is grounds for a buyout. Hold this team to a higher standard for at least one article.

Center or winger, Gagner simply isn't good enough to play for a contending team in the NHL. Trade him for whatever you can get and make room for someone else. Upgrading from this crap wouldn't be that hard.

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#21 gcw_rocks
December 24 2013, 09:44PM
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Beware small sample sizes. A sample size of one is especially suspect. Until he puts together a run of 15 or 20 games of solid defence, and he does it against real competition and not the weak sisters of the league, I am not sure why we would assume anything has changed.

Slow news day I guess.

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#22 Spydyr
December 24 2013, 12:09PM
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David S wrote:

Just curious. What's the average value of a 2LC who can bring you 50 points or so?

With a career minus sixty something?

Not 5 million.

A goal prevented is worth as much as a goal scored. There are better options on the Oilers to score. Not so many options in preventing them.

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#23 K_Mart
December 24 2013, 01:14PM
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Good game gags. Show me 40 good games and I'll care. Many of these players have had good games. Not many have played well for several in a row.

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#24 HardBoiledOil
December 24 2013, 08:10PM
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if the Oilers can get a good 2nd line center in a trade or UFA signing and they feel he's an upgrade on Gagner, i'm all for moving him....out!

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#25 John Chambers
December 24 2013, 11:58AM
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Gagner costs too much for a 2nd or 3rd line C.

I wouldn't trade him if the return was nothing, but in agreement with LT we need a different look for #2 C.

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#26 Ducey
December 24 2013, 01:38PM
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Spydyr wrote:

If you cannot see Gagner is weak defensively nothing anyone says can change your opinion of him.

And if you can't figure out the problems with +/- then you won't change yours either.

Here are a few hints:

1) Gagner came into the league as an 18 yr old. Young players struggle with defense. This tends to improve over time.

2)Gagner has played on a team intentionally trying to tank for rebuild purposes.

3) Gagner has played with other young players. See point 1.

The question is whether he will improve defensively. I think he will. His dad became a very good all round player after also being considered too small to play in the NHL.

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#27 D
December 24 2013, 03:52PM
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Respectfully disagree as well LT.

It seems that Gagner has maxed out his potential, and it would be surprising if he had a major breakout that propelled him to 80-100 points. Move him as part payment for another piece of the puzzle.

Also, if he gets shifted to the wing, what is the risk with Yakupov and his ice time. Between Gagner and Yakupov, isn't it preferable to invest time and money into Yak?

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#28 David S
December 24 2013, 12:07PM
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John Chambers wrote:

Gagner costs too much for a 2nd or 3rd line C.

I wouldn't trade him if the return was nothing, but in agreement with LT we need a different look for #2 C.

Just curious. What's the average value of a 2LC who can bring you 50 points or so?

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#29 BLAKPOO
December 24 2013, 12:26PM
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Spydyr wrote:

With a career minus sixty something?

Not 5 million.

A goal prevented is worth as much as a goal scored. There are better options on the Oilers to score. Not so many options in preventing them.

Say what you want about Gagner, just don't back up your argument with +/- stats.

It cheapens us all.

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#30 OilClog
December 24 2013, 12:37PM
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Gags on the wing wouldn't be equal or an improvement to what we already have on the wing.. I would prefer he's moved to a new area code.

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#31 Alsker
December 24 2013, 12:39PM
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Sorry LT, I too am one of the many that has seen his song and dance act for too long. And yes David S. you can learn defense, tho Gags has not been able(willing) to so far in his career. Depending on MacT's view of the rebuild is what you do with him. If we are to wait for Nurse/Klef/etc. to develop, then you might as well keep him since his contract will expire before then. If the org. wants to move forward now then he has to part of a package to fill one of the holes we have.

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#32 David S
December 24 2013, 01:04PM
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I'll go on record right now as saying the Gagner you'll see at the end of the year will be a player you cheer for every night. A gritty buzz bomb that'll get you 50-60 points a season, be around 50% on the dot and figure out the D part of the rink enough to become one of our core players. And then you'll all go ballistic when he throws in a Gagner scrap™.

Hey. It's the internet. You can get away with almost anything here. Am I right or am I right?

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#33 a lg dubl dubl
December 24 2013, 12:47PM
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Gagners FO % is what it is because he had wingers that don't help dig for the puck when it isn't won clean, I think this year is the first year since 06, that the wingers are helping the centerman to. Even RNHs FO% is up this year...or should we trade his ass too, y'know, because...

If Gagner can have a career of 60 pt seasons Im ok with that. Its Hall, Eberle, and Yak that I want to have 80-100 points years every year

Gagner, IMO should have been named captain. I like Ference but for a new guy coming into a new dressing room, seemed off.

Should he be on the wing, maybe, but until the Oilers can get the 6'2 220lb center that EVERY team wants, Frodo does the job on my books.

Merry Christmas ON!!

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#34 kale
December 24 2013, 02:58PM
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Seiously Lowetide, did you not see Gags being tossed around in the corner like a rag doll last night? Have we not been discussing ad nauseum the need to be stronger down the middle-and all over quite frankly?

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#35 gcw_rocks
December 24 2013, 12:29PM
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IF the Oilers keep Gagner, he should be moved to the wing. That said, this team needs to trade a forward for a defender and Gagner's name should be on the list of available players. Nothing about his game is so special the team couldn't survive without him, especially if the return is a top pairing defender.

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#36 Spydyr
December 24 2013, 12:56PM
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BLAKPOO wrote:

Say what you want about Gagner, just don't back up your argument with +/- stats.

It cheapens us all.

Ummmm ,Stats=career minus sixty something

To be exact career -63 this year -15

It does mean something. It means he hurts his team more than he helps his team.

Yeah he is a keeper alright.

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#37 They're $hittie
December 24 2013, 01:47PM
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Spydyr wrote:

If you cannot see Gagner is weak defensively nothing anyone says can change your opinion of him.

Has he ever played on a good team?

Here are a list of other players on the oilers that suck defensivly

Hall, Eberle, Hemsky, Yakupov, Jones, Gazdic, Jonesuu, J Schultz, Potter, Grebeshkov, Larsen, N Schultz,

Get the idea, There are not many players on the oilers who are plus since being here.

Also, Two years ago Sam lead the oilers in plus minus. I think it was his best season defensively. Was he the best forward defensively that year? Maybe but if you think not than your argument doesnt stand up.

Plus minus = dumb stat

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#38 Slyers
December 24 2013, 09:37PM
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Saytalk wrote:

This team has been abysmal for four going on five years now and you're still serving the KoolAid LoweTide. If we keep small one-dimensional players and pay them $4.8M while the first overall picks keep getting $6M handed to them, how do you expect this team to ever climb out of the toilet?

47% Corsi for any second line player on a big contract is not an improvement, it is grounds for a buyout. Hold this team to a higher standard for at least one article.

Center or winger, Gagner simply isn't good enough to play for a contending team in the NHL. Trade him for whatever you can get and make room for someone else. Upgrading from this crap wouldn't be that hard.

Agreed! LT. You say "a player known for intelligent play" this might be one of the most ridiculous comments ever! Gagner? the man is lost In his own zone and often makes plays in the offensive zone that lead to odd men advantages. When I think of intelligent players I think Pecca, Pronger, Gretzky, Patrice Bergeron, never, never, NEVER Gagner!!!!! Wow !

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#39 David S
December 25 2013, 12:37PM
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D wrote:

Your rejoinder is an amateur mistake in logic David (specifically denying the antecedent and post hoc ergo propter hoc).

(Denying the antecedent) - If Sam Gagner has an 80-100 point season, then the statement "he maxed out his potential" would be incorrect. If as you say Sam Gagner was never going to be an 80-100 point player, then the statement that he maxed out his potential is entirely correct, hence no fallacy of the inverse.

(Post hoc ergo propter hoc) - Because Sam Gagner has maxed out his potential "B", move him as part payment for another piece of the puzzle "C". Nowhere was it stated that because Sam Gagner did not score 80-100 points "A", therefore move him for a piece of the puzzle "C". But since your response relies on "if A then C", you have relied on a post hoc fallacy in criticizing my comment.

Dude. Really?

Merry Christmas and hope you enjoy your break. Best of luck to you and the entire Harvard debate club in 2014!

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#40 Rama Lama
December 24 2013, 12:05PM
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Allan I was wondering if you could comment on the "strategy change", on the special teams?

Playing regular defencemen on the PP was a huge shift for Eakins and it paid off.......the PP looked very good with regular defencemen in stead of having a bunch of forwards out there. Same on the PK .......having a regular PK line was very effective .

I hope that this is a permanent change for the Oilers. It looked good by the eye and the score.

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#41 Harvey
December 25 2013, 01:44AM
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Gagner's offensive skills are and have been apparent for some time. What I would like to see is a consistent dedication to his two-way responsibilities. In recent seasons his dedication to defence ressembles defecation more than dedication To have a leadership role on the Oil or any other NHL roster he needs to lead by example in the defensive aspects of the game which by now as a 7 yr vereran he needs to be doing. Standing there doing nothing as opposing forwards charge to the net just doesn't cut it any longer.

Time for the Oil to fish or cut bait on this player.

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#42 MessyEH!
December 25 2013, 04:53AM
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Gagner needs to make defense his primary focus for the rest of the year. If he can't be the well rounded defensively responsible center we need, then he is expendable.

We have an abundance of wingers who don't play a consistent 200 ft game. The top 4 wing positions are full. Gagner at almost 5 million is far to expensive as a 3rd line option. If he can't be the second line center we need, he has to be traded as part of a package to get us one, or dealt for additional forward depth.

Depth that belongs in the NHL. Not the type we received for SMID.

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#43 David S
December 24 2013, 12:10PM
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And I'm not talking about the average value of a 2LC regurgitated from the discard pile who might, MIGHT be as good as the one we already have.

And no, Arco at 20 or so games in isn't going to be the answer alot of you guys think he might be. At least not to a NHL GM making the call.

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#44 BLAKPOO
December 24 2013, 01:07PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Ummmm ,Stats=career minus sixty something

To be exact career -63 this year -15

It does mean something. It means he hurts his team more than he helps his team.

Yeah he is a keeper alright.

But it doesn't include special teams contributions, or specify line mates and match ups.

+/- is a garbage stat.

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#45 Rama Lama
December 24 2013, 11:17AM
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Eberle4MVP wrote:

Id keep Hemmer over Gags. He isnt good enough to be on this team long term. He has talant and skill that another team would strongly benefit from, as an addition to a team with size, but we need to move some of the smurfs for some skilled size. He cant get anyone off the puck along the boards like Hemsky can, and a one-game sample of him actually back-checking is not a career made. He simply sucks defensively, and we need better characters to be able to defend since our blueline isnt exactly strong.

We are all guilty of wanting to run Hemsky out of town, but since hes shown that his shoulders are no longer made of glass, he is very much a great part of this team. Secondary scoring, fantastic hands, and a willingness to go into the rough areas, something maybe one or two other Oilers are willing to do.

Trade Gags, or dont re-sign him is my opinion. His role needs to be replaced with some more size.

Hemmer is certainly a polarizing figure.........I love when he shows up, but because he plays an individual game, this is unreliable and hard to predict.

If Hemmer could add some upper body strength, he could really be more effective along the boards........right now there is too much pick pocket hockey in his game. We know he can take the punishment........I would like to see him give it for a change?

Maybe we could play him with Gazdic for added muscle and confidence?

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#46 MessyEH
December 24 2013, 01:03PM
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Agree completely, Gagner is over paid for what he is. Has never scored more then 50pts. Is not great at FOs, Defensively suspect, and paid one million too much. Better off trading him for real 3rd and 4th liners. Maybe we can get Cogs.

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#47 Ed in PV
December 24 2013, 02:04PM
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David S wrote:

I'll go on record right now as saying the Gagner you'll see at the end of the year will be a player you cheer for every night. A gritty buzz bomb that'll get you 50-60 points a season, be around 50% on the dot and figure out the D part of the rink enough to become one of our core players. And then you'll all go ballistic when he throws in a Gagner scrap™.

Hey. It's the internet. You can get away with almost anything here. Am I right or am I right?

To me a "buzz bomb" is a player who is very quick as you notice him darting around the ice. Are you expecting Santa to deliver him a new set of legs?

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#48 etownman
December 24 2013, 03:06PM
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Taylor Gang wrote:

Trade Gagner to a team that is looking to sacrifice a two way centre for some offense

Yes, like Henrique!

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#49 RexHolez
December 24 2013, 06:24PM
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Cynic wrote:

Citing plus-minus cheapens an argument? With a fanbase that thinks Peter Gabriel's Volhammer, Closed Fenwicks, and the Queen's Relative's Corgis are real stats? That's funny.

Every stat except wins/losses is valuable around here!

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#50 Spydyr
December 25 2013, 05:48AM
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Ducey wrote:

And if you can't figure out the problems with +/- then you won't change yours either.

Here are a few hints:

1) Gagner came into the league as an 18 yr old. Young players struggle with defense. This tends to improve over time.

2)Gagner has played on a team intentionally trying to tank for rebuild purposes.

3) Gagner has played with other young players. See point 1.

The question is whether he will improve defensively. I think he will. His dad became a very good all round player after also being considered too small to play in the NHL.

He has been in the NHL over seven years and you think he will improve defensively?

Hope you get your Christmas miracle.

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