MOROZ SIGNS

Lowetide
December 29 2013 10:39AM

The key for any organization is procurement, and for NHL teams most of that comes from the annual Entry draft. The Oilers signed Mitchell Moroz to an entry level deal yesterday, confirming the young man has developed enough since draft day to warrant three years of commitment from the organization. How much has he progressed?

Moroz was drafted out of order by the Oilers because they felt an extreme need for this player type. Although all NHL teams say they draft best player available—and they should—most draft for need much of the time and the Oilers have done so forever.

That said, tracking Moroz since his draft day has revealed improvement, including a two year stint on the shutdown line that impacted his play away from the puck (and his offense). This season, as an older player, Moroz has had the better of it offensively. How much of this offense will he bring with him? Let's have a lash.

In the period after he was drafted, C&B's Scott Reynolds compiled a list of comparables and I think that's the best place to start.

BOXCAR NUMBERS IN YEAR AFTER DRAFT

  1. Shawn Matthias 64, 38-35-73 1.14
  2. Eric Tangradi 56, 24-36-60 1.07
  3. Milan Lucic 70, 30-38-68 .971
  4. Colton Gillies 58, 24-23-47 .810
  5. Blake Comeau 65, 24-23-47 .723
  6. Brett Clouthier 65, 13-26-39 .600
  7. Mitchell Moroz 69, 13-21-34 .493
  8. Dane Byers 65, 11-9-20 .308

You'll notice my numbers differ from Scott's, his are adjusted. Moroz is at the bottom of the group, closer to Dane Byers than Matthias and Lucic. We don't have TOI for these men, but I think it's reasonable to suggest Moroz wouldn't be at the top of the list with mammoth 1line time or PP opportunities.

BOXCAR NUMBERS IN YEAR TWO AFTER DRAFT

  1. Milan Lucic was in the NHL at age 19
  2. Colton Gillies was in the NHL at age 19
  3. Eric Tangradi 55, 38-50-88 1.60
  4. Shawn Matthias 53, 32-47-79 1.49
  5. Blake Comeau 60, 21-53-74 1.23
  6. Mitchell Moroz 35, 21-13-34 .971
  7. Brett Clouthier 68, 28-29-57 .838
  8. Dane Byers 71, 21-27-48 .676

Moroz has certainly improved year over year (so far) and is approaching the range where the first guy who had some actual NHL success resided at the same age (Comeau). If he can improve his number in the season's second half, the club might be looking at a player who can play above the 4th line (should he make the NHL).

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Mitchell Moroz has taken legitimate steps forward since his draft day. He's now at a point where he's in the range with comparables that we can see an NHL appearance and possibly a career. Credit to him for all the hard work, congratulations Mitchell Moroz on the contract and we look forward to following your pro career beginning next fall.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Reg Dunlop
December 29 2013, 11:26AM
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If young MM continues to develop I see no reason why he can't be a contributor at the AHL level some day. Beats working at the Chrysler plant.

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#2 Ambassador humantorch
December 29 2013, 03:39PM
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JFJ Reincarnated. This organization will never learn.

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#3 Jay
December 29 2013, 12:23PM
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Man this is gonna be a good team in 7 years!

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#4 Oliveoiler
December 29 2013, 04:31PM
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Pitlick, skill, size and a desire to win as an Oiler, Fedun, same as Pitlick. Instead we have Belov, Potter, Larsen, Joensuu, Lander, Yak.....the list goes on - and on, and on, and on....................................yawn

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#5 etownman
December 29 2013, 11:25AM
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Excellent signing! This guy along with Khaira & Kessy will provide the Oilers with the type of play that King & Nolan bring the Kings!

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#6 Manfly
December 29 2013, 05:01PM
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Oliveoiler wrote:

Unfortunately the amateur AND pro scouts haven't exactly done us proud lately. I dare not hold my breath regarding their decisions, I like living too much.

i'm not as high on our scouting staff as I used to be. it may be time to say bye bye to Stu and the boys.

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#7 Fossil
December 29 2013, 12:51PM
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Time will tell with this draft pick and every other pick the oil have made. Big and skilled out of junior will not develop to NHL skill within the current non system. Reason being, limited time on 3rd or 4th line or if used on the top 2 lines, will always be out of position due to the non system. Until the supposed leaders of this team dedicate themselves to knowing where their line mates are or going to be at any given time, nothing will change. The inconsistent play; 1 shift try to make contact, remainder of game don't touch anyone; drop passes in your own zone or when in alone on the goalie (please stop the drop); crossing the rink at mid ice so everyone is out of position, then turning it over at the blue line, does not happen on winning teams. Skill means nothing for 90% the game without a system.

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#8 Spydyr
December 29 2013, 12:26PM
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Jay wrote:

Man this is gonna be a good team in 7 years!

Great, halfway through the rebuild then.

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#9 RexHolez
December 29 2013, 01:12PM
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Spydyr wrote:

Great, halfway through the rebuild then.

1 year after they hire new assistant coaches and buy out Schultz's 8year 6 million contract

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#10 Jay
December 29 2013, 08:52PM
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@SlowTalker

Same old jokes, same old joke team

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#11 Smokey
December 29 2013, 10:52AM
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The Oilers maybe should of taken other players, but this I think will make the show. All you can ask of a second round player.

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#12 a lg dubl dubl
December 29 2013, 02:13PM
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RexHolez wrote:

1 year after they hire new assistant coaches and buy out Schultz's 8year 6 million contract

I don't think he'll get paid 6 mil, it'll be 7-8mil like Phanuef...they have the same amount of points right now :(

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#13 bwar
December 29 2013, 10:55AM
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Big and starting to display signs of skill? We need to trade him for small wingers immediately.

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#14 EricOG
December 29 2013, 12:47PM
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Jay wrote:

Man this is gonna be a good team in 7 years!

That,my friend, I fear to be the true plan. Not this horse crap we are being force fed by Lowe and Co.

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#15 Craig1981
December 29 2013, 09:03PM
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YFC Prez wrote:

Wow. Good save by the gymnastics lady!

Also like too see the underdog without the level of talent of others in his draft position make a decent career through hard work. I agree congrats to MM. I will be paying attention.

I'm an Oiler's fan.......what is a "save"?

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#16 **
December 29 2013, 04:47PM
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etownman wrote:

Excellent signing! This guy along with Khaira & Kessy will provide the Oilers with the type of play that King & Nolan bring the Kings!

Don't forget YAkimov and Zharkov

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#17 Spydyr
December 29 2013, 07:01PM
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Chainsawz wrote:

If this isn't a good team in 5 years, it'll have to be a good team in 7 without Hall and Eberle.

In seven years Katz's kid will be old enough to coach the team.

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#18 Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty)
December 29 2013, 07:39PM
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Spydyr wrote:

In seven years Katz's kid will be old enough to coach the team.

Coach our team?! Get serious....that's just silly!......however....he will have attended enough drafts to become our Chief Scout!

Edit: not to mention that Messier, Anderson, Kurri and Coffee haven't had their chance yet here at Nepotism Central!

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#19 rickithebear
December 29 2013, 10:18PM
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Manfly

Chicago got there base for cups 1 and 2 from 1998 to 2007. 14 players. a lot of this base did not see the NHL till,age 23-24

1998 to 1999 Pocklington; sather; Fraser 2000 to 2007 EIG; Lowe; Pendergast

All that remained from that period for us was 2001 Hemsky ufa 2005 Dubnyk UFA 2006 Petry RFA 2007 Gagner 2008 Pick #22

2008-2012 Katz; Tambellini; Macgregor

2008 #22 Eberle 23yr top U24 scorer in the game!

2009 #10 MP #40 Lander 22 yr

2010 #1 Hall 22 yr #31 Pitlick 6'2" 195lb 22yr #46 Marincin 21yr #48 Hamilton 6'2" 220lb 22yr

2011 #1 RNH 20yr #19 Klefbom 20yr #31 Musil 20yr

2012 #1 Yakipov 20yr #32 Moroz 6'3" 215lb19yr #63 Khaira 6'4" 215lb 19yr

2013 katz; Mactavish; Macgregor

2013 #7 Nurse #56 MO Roy 6'2" 190lb # 83 Yakimov 6'4" 220lb #88 Slepyshev 6'2" 195lb #188 G. Chase 6'0" 205lb

trades horcoff for Larsena nd a pick. MacT trades MP + 2nd 2014 for Perron Signs Ference Signs Gordon Signs Jeonsuu Signs Belov Trades Smid Signs Brysgalov Trades Labarbera Trades Omark

3 of the top 10 U24 forwards in the game. a top 10 scoring LW for MP and a pick.

A whole collection of 6'2"+ and 200lb + forwards with top 6 to top 9 potential.

what we lack is developed Dmen that role in around age 24+.

our problem is not Macgregor. it was the guys before! Marincin Klefbom Musil Gernat Nurse

This group needs time! Chicago 13 years before there first pick.

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#20 SlowTalker
December 29 2013, 08:09PM
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Well I just read through these comments. Just the same old jokes again. Thanks for the write-up LT.

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#21 Manfly
December 29 2013, 10:44AM
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hoping he makes it. we need a guy like this in our lineup.

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#22 a lg dubl dubl
December 29 2013, 02:10PM
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It would be great to see Moroz and Pitlick banging and crashing together.

Please gods of hockey don't let them take 8 years to develop.

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#23 Manfly
December 29 2013, 02:15PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

It would be great to see Moroz and Pitlick banging and crashing together.

Please gods of hockey don't let them take 8 years to develop.

and hopefully soon after, Khaira joins them!

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#24 719
December 29 2013, 02:44PM
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Shawn Matthias' numbers never really translated to the NHL did they? Still, I would love to see him on our team. I would be happy if MM turned out to be a Blake Commeau, with a little more grit.

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#25 Chainsawz
December 29 2013, 06:41PM
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Jay wrote:

Man this is gonna be a good team in 7 years!

If this isn't a good team in 5 years, it'll have to be a good team in 7 without Hall and Eberle.

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#26 MessyEH!
December 30 2013, 12:24AM
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Oliveoiler wrote:

Unfortunately the amateur AND pro scouts haven't exactly done us proud lately. I dare not hold my breath regarding their decisions, I like living too much.

I must disagree on the the Pro scouts they may have turned a corner.

Gordon Perron Belov Ferrence

they may be breaking even.

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#27 Spydyr
December 30 2013, 05:35AM
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Old Retired Guy (A.K.A. Die-Nasty) wrote:

Coach our team?! Get serious....that's just silly!......however....he will have attended enough drafts to become our Chief Scout!

Edit: not to mention that Messier, Anderson, Kurri and Coffee haven't had their chance yet here at Nepotism Central!

Messier is on the payroll he would be here if he did not want to leave NY.

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#28 Spydyr
December 30 2013, 09:58AM
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brad wrote:

I would be relieved to know that there actually is a plan at all!!

Plan, plan... We don't need no stinkin' plan.

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#29 YFC Prez
December 29 2013, 10:48AM
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Wow. Good save by the gymnastics lady!

Also like too see the underdog without the level of talent of others in his draft position make a decent career through hard work. I agree congrats to MM. I will be paying attention.

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#30 Oliveoiler
December 29 2013, 04:28PM
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Unfortunately the amateur AND pro scouts haven't exactly done us proud lately. I dare not hold my breath regarding their decisions, I like living too much.

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#31 Manfly
December 30 2013, 01:31AM
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rickithebear wrote:

Manfly

Chicago got there base for cups 1 and 2 from 1998 to 2007. 14 players. a lot of this base did not see the NHL till,age 23-24

1998 to 1999 Pocklington; sather; Fraser 2000 to 2007 EIG; Lowe; Pendergast

All that remained from that period for us was 2001 Hemsky ufa 2005 Dubnyk UFA 2006 Petry RFA 2007 Gagner 2008 Pick #22

2008-2012 Katz; Tambellini; Macgregor

2008 #22 Eberle 23yr top U24 scorer in the game!

2009 #10 MP #40 Lander 22 yr

2010 #1 Hall 22 yr #31 Pitlick 6'2" 195lb 22yr #46 Marincin 21yr #48 Hamilton 6'2" 220lb 22yr

2011 #1 RNH 20yr #19 Klefbom 20yr #31 Musil 20yr

2012 #1 Yakipov 20yr #32 Moroz 6'3" 215lb19yr #63 Khaira 6'4" 215lb 19yr

2013 katz; Mactavish; Macgregor

2013 #7 Nurse #56 MO Roy 6'2" 190lb # 83 Yakimov 6'4" 220lb #88 Slepyshev 6'2" 195lb #188 G. Chase 6'0" 205lb

trades horcoff for Larsena nd a pick. MacT trades MP + 2nd 2014 for Perron Signs Ference Signs Gordon Signs Jeonsuu Signs Belov Trades Smid Signs Brysgalov Trades Labarbera Trades Omark

3 of the top 10 U24 forwards in the game. a top 10 scoring LW for MP and a pick.

A whole collection of 6'2"+ and 200lb + forwards with top 6 to top 9 potential.

what we lack is developed Dmen that role in around age 24+.

our problem is not Macgregor. it was the guys before! Marincin Klefbom Musil Gernat Nurse

This group needs time! Chicago 13 years before there first pick.

^where the Oilers have struggled with Stu and his staff is after the 1st round. I won't include recent drafted players because it's too early to judge them yet, but yes I do like the size of some of the players taken. the guys who are getting an NHL sniff right now who were picked after the 1st round have hardly set the world on fire though, but Pitlick gives us some size and toughness and does have some scoring talent. too high of a pick in my opinion to be a 4th liner though.

Lander doesn't appear to be fast enough to score at an NHL level like he has recently done in the AHL.

and Marincin doesn't look like anything special, at least so far, but does have great size. but perhaps we do need to be just a little more....sorry, gotta say it....patient with Stu and the crew's picks to see what he has really accomplished for us?

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#32 I tried it at home
December 29 2013, 03:47PM
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If that young lady from WDIAM can make a save like that, can we invite her to training camp as a potential goalie?

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#33 @Oilanderp
December 30 2013, 04:06AM
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Given his draft place, and depending on which expert you listen to, Moroz historically has very roughly a 25% chance of playing at least 200 games in the NHL, and a 70% chance of playing at least one game.

Stay healthy, young man!

references: http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf http://hockeyanalysis.com/2006/06/24/draft-schmaft-from-draft-pick-to-nhler/

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#34 brad
December 30 2013, 07:18AM
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@EricOG

I would be relieved to know that there actually is a plan at all!!

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#35 rickithebear
December 30 2013, 10:36AM
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Manfly:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

When you look at the best outscoring players in the top 9you are looking at alot of

This chart is based on past history.

so under Macgregor the cummulative chance of getting a NHL player.

2008 #22 32.4%; #103 10.3%; #133 8.4%; #163 7.6% #193 6.0 In this draft they should get an NHL player 64.7% of the time. Eberle kills the average.

2009 #10 56.5%; #40 20.8% cummulative 139.4% 1.4 players per draft MP 1782GM traded for Perron Lander 77 games in by 22 years. Roy in Smid Brousoitt trade

2010 #91.7%; #31 25.5% 0ur 5 picks in first 3 rounds should get us a 1.7 players 172% Hall 22 Yr; Pitlick 22 yr; Marincin 21yr; Hamilton 22yr; Martindale 22yr. come back to me in 3 years on this group. The other 6 picks gets you a player 49% of the time.

2011 #1 91.7%; #19 36.4%; #31 25.5%; Our top 3 picks 154% should get us 3 players every 2 drafts. RNH; Klefbom; Musil

The other picks 71% you 1 player every 1.4 drafts Ewanyk; Simpson; Gernat

2012 #1 91.7%; #32 24.6%; #63 17.6% this group of picks should get you 4 players every 3 drafts. RNH; Moroz 6'3" 215lb ; Khaira 6'4" 215lb

The other 4 picks 41% should get you 1 players every 2.5 drafts. Zharkov; Gustaffsson; Laleggia; McCarron 6'2" 225lb 1.14 PPg NCAA @21

2013 MacT GM #7 66.5%; #56 17.8%; #83 14.9%; #88 13.7% 113% our top 4 picks should get us one player every draft Nurse; M-O Roy; Yakimov; Slepyshev.

The next 6 picks should get us 55% 1 player every 2 drafts Houck; Platzer; A. Muir; Campbell; Betker; G. Chase

An average drafting team would get 9.9 player from all our 49 picks since 2008.

Eberle top 10 U24 forward MP trade for top 10 scoring LW Perron. Lander T. Hall top 3 U24 Forwrd RNH top 10 U24 forwards Yakupov That is 6;

Do you think we get 4 more from Pitlick; Marincin; Hamilton; Klefbom; Musil; Simpson; Kessey; Gernat; Moroz; Khaira; Zkarkov; McCarron; Nurse; Roy; Yakimov; Slepyshev; Houck; Muir; Chase.

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#36 Rama Lama
December 30 2013, 10:59AM
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The guy I'm most intrigued by is Gregory Chase..........I live in Calgary and hear about his play all the time.

The kid is big, talented, and leading the Hitmen with 20g 20A.........might be the real sleeper behind Khairia.

If both of these guys end up playing in the NHL........magnificient Stu can retain his title!

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#37 @Oilanderp
December 30 2013, 11:59AM
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@Rama Lama

As ricki shows above, Stu would need more than Chase and Khaira to become NHL players. He'd need 2 more besides that just to be considered average. Of course, development comes into that and that's not Stu's job. Still. Moroz tracking well.

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