STRAIGHT SHOOTER

Lowetide
February 14 2013 08:46PM

Phil Cornet's shooting percentage refuses to cooperate. He keeps scoring goals at an exceptional rate in the AHL. At what point do we take this from "unsustainable" and "luck" to something resembling "skill"?

I don't want to get into a Jordan Eberle level discussion about Cornet's scoring percentages, but he's back for a second year in a row to amaze us and I'm beginning to wonder when we start thinking about this being an actual ability, like juggling, yodeling or lifting heavy things.

CORNET IN THE AHL

  • age 20: 7 goals on 86 shots (8.13%)
  • age 21: 24 goals on 135 shots (17.78%)
  • age 22: 6 goals on 24 shots (25%)

Cornet's ECHL numbers (9 goals on 53 shots, 16.98%) also give the impression that this fellow can score goals at an impressive clip. All told, his AHL shooting percentage is an outstanding 15.1% over most of three seasons now.

WHAT ABOUT JUNIOR?

  • age 16: 7 goals on 82 shots (8.5%)
  • age 17: 23 goals on 156 shots (14.7%)
  • age 18: 29 goals on 242 shots (12%)
  • age 19: 28 goals on 237 shots (11.8%)

For his junior career--and a hat tip to the QMJHL for keeping track of shots--Cornet's shooting percentage was 12.1%. That's an interesting total, but not earth shattering and doesn't suggest we're looking at some kind of magician in the scoring zones.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

Well, random luck is still the likely answer, but we're (early) in year two of this little curio and I'm beginning to wonder if Cornet might have found a way to cheat the house.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Hell if I know. I'm asking you. I'd like to know the answer to this question, and it could apply to Eberle although it appears he's seeing a market correction as we speak:

At what point does a lucky streak begin to look like a skill? Is a player with Cornet's junior resume always doomed to be what we thought he was? How many times a decade does a sniper emerge from the land of normal?

Thoughts?

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 Crispy
February 14 2013, 08:50PM
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Fistric

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#2 Playoffbound2013
February 14 2013, 09:08PM
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Yeaaaa! Another db taking the up the cause of writing fist. Slow clap.

On another note, the lady in 5th picture is trying her hardest to make mom jeans look hot. Not sure if it is working.

Cornet is behind a lot players, I hope this goal scoring translates into something. With the number of injuries the oilers have each year, they will need all the depth they can get.

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#3 closetgm
February 14 2013, 10:07PM
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Well all i am going to say is that i saw him once in a oilers pre season game and i thought he stood out from the rest of the guys. I have been watching to see what he does ever since, and have seen some ups and downs. Lets hope he beats the odds. You can never have to many good players.

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#4 Quicksilver ballet
February 14 2013, 10:18PM
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@Playoffbound2013

Those jeans are acceptable. I can see she has 45 cents in her left pocket. The quarter is from 1978. What's that 78 quarter worth today i wonder, being antique and all....

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#5 SiD
February 14 2013, 10:22PM
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Looking at the string of bad luck Jordan Eberle has been having getting robbed on wide open nets or just missing, it seems like a mix of both skill and luck. Cornet could be in the right place at the right time like Eberle usually is but he's getting the bounces.

Lowetide are you going to be doing any articles on Mitch Moroz, Daniil Zharkov, and Jujhar Khaira? Just wondering how they are tracking from what I've seen so far I like Moroz just personally high on what he brings to the game, I haven't heard to much of the other two though.

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#7 SiD
February 14 2013, 10:35PM
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@Lowetide

Can't wait to read it, and thanks for the link looking forward to see if Khaira can be one of the big body the Oilers need.

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#8 Playoffbound2013
February 14 2013, 10:47PM
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@ yak be...

Yeah I remember the time, and quite possibly the movie. Hard to see anyone being hot in the same jeans your mom wore (literally).

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#9 TrentonL
February 14 2013, 11:29PM
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How is cornet away from the puck? Any potential for this kid to be moulded into Pisani 2.0? He is 6.0' and 196 so by 24-25 could have some bulk.

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#10 kgo
February 14 2013, 11:36PM
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Just found the best summarization of DSF!!!

He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination

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#11 jdrevenge
February 15 2013, 12:48AM
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Do we know how he does on the d-side of the game? There's no way he supplants any of the top six right now so if he's to make it I'd wager he'd end up as 3rd or 4th line support.

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#12 Westcoastoil
February 15 2013, 02:18AM
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It's easy to forget he's only 23 and that he's young enough such that an NHL player may be lurking inside. The recent string of #1s up front have perhaps clouded expectations on when we think players should be ready for the show. There is never ending talk about following the Detroit model, and we all know how long it takes to graduate out of their system. Ideally the Oilers will achieve org. depth to the point where a player has to force his way onto the roster to make the squad vs. simply filling a need.

We can hope

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#13 Lochenzo
February 15 2013, 09:55AM
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So, shots on goal. It's only credited if the goalie makes the save or if the puck goes into the net. Posts and shots that go wide are not officially shots, but staticians for broadcasts will record those numbers - blocked shots, number of posts, etc. But when it comes to a players' shooting percentage as we see listed in the stats, is it goals divided by "official" shots on net? It would be good to know who's good at not having their shots blocked and who can bury the biscuit per shot attempt.

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#14 Jonathan Willis
February 15 2013, 10:24AM
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Not an outstanding junior shooter.

Not an outstanding ECHL shooter.

Not an outstanding shooter as an AHL rookie.

159 shots over two seasons with a strong percentage in the AHL.

I'd feel pretty good betting against Cornet being able to do this over the long haul.

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#15 Jon
February 15 2013, 10:42AM
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I think Jonathan Willis' logic above is pretty solid. You'd think he would have higher shooting percentages at lower levels if this was some sort of ability as opposed to luck.

Take a look at Ryan Jones; another guy who has a higher shooting percentage than you might imagine. He shot a range of 16.5-19.6% in his last 3 years of college. Is his NHL career, he's shot 11.1-14.3% over 3 seasons. That's sort of logical, had a high shooting percentage every year in college, and had a bit of a drop when it comes to the NHL. That's a guy that I'd point to repeat his numbers, not a guy like Cornet whose numbers just suddenly spiked.

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#16 Rama Lama
February 15 2013, 11:17AM
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Lowetide wrote:

As we head toward March I'll do some things on the 2012 draft.

Here's something interesting http://oilonwhyte.com/2013/02/13/the-progression-of-jujhar-khaira-a-qa-with-tech-hockey-guides-tim-braun/

I too would enjoy an article on the " forgotten ones"........you know the guys not drafted in the first couple of rounds.

Jujhar as described by Stu the magnificent, may be the steal of the draft. He is big, mean, plays centre, and has the ability to score. He is tracking to be about 6'3" and around 215-220......given his age.

Hope he continues to develop and gets signed to an AHL contract over the next two years.

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#17 westcoastoil
February 15 2013, 01:01PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Not an outstanding junior shooter.

Not an outstanding ECHL shooter.

Not an outstanding shooter as an AHL rookie.

159 shots over two seasons with a strong percentage in the AHL.

I'd feel pretty good betting against Cornet being able to do this over the long haul.

obviously that's the most logical outcome, however, there are always outliers that crop up from time to time

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#18 Bonvie
February 15 2013, 02:50PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Not an outstanding junior shooter.

Not an outstanding ECHL shooter.

Not an outstanding shooter as an AHL rookie.

159 shots over two seasons with a strong percentage in the AHL.

I'd feel pretty good betting against Cornet being able to do this over the long haul.

It's evidence of a guy who made an assertive effort in changing his game with better results. The high percentage shooting area is in front of the net(see Craig Simpson). I remember seeing an interview probably on this site about crediting the coaching staff in telling him to get stronger and to go to the font of the net, identifying that is the reason for his goal scoring success early on last season.

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