Big Decisions: Signing Ales Hemsky
Jonathan Willis
February 18 2013 03:57PM
There are those who believe that the Edmonton Oilers made a mistake when they re-signed pending unrestricted free agent Ales Hemsky to a two-year/$10 million contract extension just under one year ago.
Those people are wrong. The Oilers made the right decision.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
One of the more difficult parts of assessing a player is recognizing when a short-term trend is likely to continue or stop. At the time the Oilers re-signed Hemsky, he had played 47 games, scored just five times, and recorded 21 assists. He also had a minus-14 rating. The five goals quickly became a punch line, as pundits joked that the Oilers gave Hemsky ‘a million for every goal he scored.’
The problem was that Hemsky’s dismal performance stood in such stark contrast to his previous work in the NHL. The following are Hemsky’s basic statistics from the five years preceding 2011-12, as well as an average 47-game segment from that span. The last row has Hemsky’s numbers as of the date the Oilers re-signed him.
The difference is striking. Hemsky’s shots were down by a third, the number of shots taken that went in were down by half, and his assist totals were down by one-third.
The reasons for the slump are open to debate. But the Oilers needed to decide whether or not Hemsky’s rough 2011-12 represented the new normal for him, or if it was a temporary lull after which he could be expected to return to his traditional levels of production.
Hemsky’s played 36 games since then; I don’t think the answer is 100 percent clear yet.
It’s Not A Choice, It’s A Lack Of Options
The other issue, one that was obvious at the time, was that somebody was going to play Hemsky’s minutes. At the time, it was not possible to know that the Oilers would end up drafting first overall and picking Nail Yakupov, but even if they had known that ahead of time it would have been folly to expect a fresh-faced rookie to step in and add the kind of scoring Hemsky is capable of.
The free agent market was just as miserable. In terms of established offensive talent, there simply weren’t a lot of options. The Oilers could have gone hard after Zach Parise, or they would have been stuck trying to attract a Ray Whitney, Jaromir Jagr, Alex Semin or Jiri Hudler to town.
Right now, it looks like the 41-year old Jagr would have turned out pretty good. He got a one-year, $4.55 million contract from Dallas. The simple fact is that to replace Hemsky, the Oilers would have been forced to gamble that they could attract one of the few scoring options on the market, and they would be spending roughly the same money.
Alternatively, they could have let Hemsky go, and made a second line out of some combination of Ryan Smyth, Magnus Paajarvi, Teemu Hartikainen or Linus Omark (since at the time it seemed likely they would be picking after the Yakupov selection). While a possible choice, at some point the ‘dwell in the NHL basement and collect draft picks’ phase of a rebuild has to give way to a ‘make the team better’ segment, and keeping Hemsky was a necessary first step.
The Long Run
The Oilers opted to sign Hemsky to a bridge deal – they gave him money, but not term. His $5 million per season was a respectable figure, but the Oilers only committed to it for two seasons – allowing them flexibility if Hemsky failed to return to form, or if the combination of youth on expiring contracts/a falling salary cap (keep in mind that Hemsky was signed before the new CBA came into being) forced the team to shed dollars. It was a sensible choice at the time, and it looks pretty good in retrospect.
It seems likely that at some point in the near future, Hemsky will be a casualty of the salary cap, and the internal difficulties of keeping a trio of right wings – Hemsky, Yakupov and Jordan Eberle – in the system long-term. Hemsky’s the oldest of the group, and his injuries over the years have doubtless made the team hesitant to write him into the long-term plans. At this time next year, the Oilers will face the same decision they did a year ago – to sign Hemsky to a new deal, to trade him at the deadline, or to hang on to him and lose him for nothing in the summer.
If and when Hemsky does leave, I’ll be disappointed. For years, he’s been far and away the most entertaining player on the team, a uniquely gifted forward and on some nights one of the few reasons to watch a team bound for another year in the basement. He’s been called soft, and it’s been suggested at times that he’s lazy, but he’s a guy who seemingly never hesitated to take a hit to make a play, or sacrifice his body to retrieve a puck in the corner, and to me that says more about his on-ice character and his willingness than hit totals, interviews, or what time he leaves practice ever will.
But if Hemsky leaves town because it doesn’t make sense for the team to keep him, I’ll understand that. That could be the case a year from now. It certainly wasn’t the case a year ago.
PREVIOUSLY IN THIS SERIES
Hemsky has been brilliant, a pleasure to watch in 2013.
Please. He's an Oiler for life. He'll squeeze in under the cap somehow. He needs to stay permanently.
@DSF
I think Parise's a better player than Hemsky, and I'd rather have him on my team, but your use of statistics remains hilarious.
You omit points per game, even though Hemsky eclipses Parise in that department since the lockout.
Glad this was brought up. Hemsky only has 55 less points over 7 years but here's the startling statistic: he's -28 on a team that was -297 over that time. Parise is +57 on a team that was +87. Seems to me, Hemsky was outperforming his teammates by a significant margin and while Parise was underperforming, his stats being elevated by his team. It amazes me how a player can only be -28 when his team got outscored by 297 goals in that span. I agree with all others who've wondered just how good Hemsky would've been on a decent team.
i've been following oilersnation for several years now, and have really enjoyed the various blogs, and comments from most members. however, the only reason why i have joined is to ask why DSF is allowed to continually comment and denigrate the oilers. i thought that this is forum to show your support for the oil. i understand that sometimes one may have opinions that are critical of the team and the moves of management, but if your sole purpose to comment here is to put down the organization and players by using ridiculous arguments backed by highly skewed and suspect facts and figures to support your negative view, then you really should find another place to comment. moderators please moderate. if DSF wants to spout off all this negativity, he/she should hop over to TSN and comment cuz it's not a pro oiler forum there. if DSF loves vancouver and minny so much, go and comment on their forums and give us a break from your utter nonsense. you don't troll on team's website/forum...go oilers!
That is exactly it. NHL GMs don't watch Hemsky play, they watch his stats and measure his percentages. Just like you: they don't watch the game-they watch stats.
When there is 50+ posts you know DSF is being stupid.
While I do agree that Hemsky is the most likely to be traded off the Oilers, I fail to see how that has any relevancy to Hemsky being traded, unless they plan on getting Kadri. Also, Kadri is a young stud, so it's hardly a fair comparison. Hall is outscoring Ovechkin right now and his cap hit is 3.775 million a year.
@DSF
LOL? Really? What kind of grown ass man that is trying to get his valued opinion across uses LOL? What are you 12 years old?
Kadri is 22. When Hemsky was 22, he was almost a PPG player that took his team within one victory of the Stanley Cup. At 22. Hemsky had already played over 200 NHL games, Kadri about 50.
Kadri isn't, never was and never will be a better player than Hemsky, just like you never did and never will have an opinion of your own.
Your ego is too little to admit or even risk being wrong, so you just use tired ass stats that have nothing to do with nothing to push other peoples opinion you heard or read somewhere else.
Get a clue, then, use that clue to find an opinion. I enjoy comments just as much as you do and the worth of them is the same to both of us-nothing.
We treat Ryan Smyth like god around here. So much uproar when people started cutting him up after his horrible start. Hemsky's been getting murdered around here for years now. Time to show him the same respect Smyth gets. After all, he can do so many things that Smyth can't. He's also done one thing Smitty will never be able to do, Hemmer never left town.
You remind me of sad people in the mall-if your outlook is going to be so negative, keep it at home and to yourself.
What if? What if? What if DSF had common sense? We can only hope.
But why do you hope and invision the worst?
There are problems in today's world that cannot be solved by the level of thinking that created them.
7-3-10 in 14 gp.
Results matter.
That's deep *slow clap*
@Walter "Wes" Sobchak
I'm not being confrontational, I'm being inquisitive.
I asked you why you want to trade Hemsky and for whom. You didn't respond to my questions. You went on to tell me your negative outlook that has nothing to do with nothing.
If you care to debate, then answer my questions so I can see where your coming from and where you going. All your giving me is you pessimistic visions.
I love the idea that the Oilers should have traded Hemsky at the deadline (if he were healthy), but since he wasn't should definitely have signed him (but not for $5 million/year for two years), laughably assuming that he would have settled for less money with UFA status ahead of him. Even coming off a lousy year, I'm pretty sure Ales Hemsky's agent knows how to interpret Tuomo Ruutu (never hit 60 points, hit just 34 points last year) signing a four-year deal with a $4.75 million cap hit.
The Oilers made the best of bad options: they signed Hemsky to a short-term deal, keeping him in the system while avoiding the significant risk inherent in a long-term deal and avoiding trading him in a year where his value was at an all-time low. I'm not shy about criticizing the team, but I try to wait until I actually think they've done something wrong.
@Walter "Wes" Sobchak
Hall6, Eberle6, RNH5, J Schu5, Yakupov5, Hemsky4. Thats 31 in salary, and another 30-40 left to sign other players. Whats the problem?
The best player during the darkest era ever of Oilers hockey. Have to wonder what he would've accomplished if he was drafted by the Wings. With a much stronger supporting cast he may have been a 7.5 per yr player.
As much I love watching pretty goals, how many goals has our second line given up this year. Other teams are eating Hemsky and Yaks and Gagners lunch. If the second line can learn to stop the bleeding, then I'd be more for keeping Hemsky long term. The Oilers got to get bigger and more difficult to play against so I'm not sure whether signing Hemsky long term makes a whole lotta sense.
The Hemsky contract could be dumb, by some metrics, and let us say that it is, for the sake of the argument. However, taking that as a benchmark, the Parise contract would appear to be something well beyond the pale of stupidity.
I seem to recall an official tweet from the Flames at the time of the Hemsky re-signing mocking the signing.
The returns are still early, but it would be very rewarding to see those comments come back to haunt them.
@DSF
So Hemsky being just under a point a game player on bad Oiler teams is meaningless but Garrison having an average, at best, +/- on a bad Florida team means greatness?
Extrapolating Garrison's +/- for a full season is just a lazy agrument. BTW, I do agree $5 mil per year for Hemsky was an overpayment as well, I just don't see the "greatness" in overpaying players on other teams that you always manage to find a way to defend...
@Walter "Wes" Sobchak
Why would you want to trade a player when he is one of your best players on the team at the moment? For what reason? Boredom?
Hemsky's value isn't what he gets in a trade. Hemsky's value is measured in his point production and the things he does for his team.
You could trade two 1st round picks for an 1st line centre, but the value isn't in that trade, the value is the results from it.
@DSF
Actually, ppg is the stat the normalizes the two players performances so that you can accurately compare the two on that single metric. It makes total sense precisely because he's had more games lost to injury. Good grief.
Parise > Hemsky. Call me nostalgic though; I'd still love to see the Oilers hang onto him so he can enjoy some long drinks from the fountain after years in the desert. I guess that's why I'm not a G.M.
Wait, neither is anyone else here.
What's wrong with that? Hemsky is playing well and is helping the team win and makes some amazing plays? 2 years for 10 million ain't bad... there are worse over pays. Hemsky is already signed... nice comment it sure added a lot to this forum.
@DSF
Good grief.
Don't change the lens now. We weren't talking about that. We were talking about points totals of Hemsky and Praise post-lockout, and Willis correctly elected to counter your argument by raising the ppg fact.
If you'd like to talk about signing injury-prone players we certainly can, but let's not and say we did. Try staying on point.
Good grief.
@DSF
They absolutely do, of course.
Wait, what results are we talking about here? Here's a stat: both players have zero Stanley cups. That's a key one.
Oh and Parise has had knee surgery to address a meniscus problem. Minny's signing of a player prone to a knee injury (we all know how fast one knee injury becomes a chronic problem) certainly merits a 'good grief' as well.
I need a Charlie Brown avatar.
This ^
Trading Hemsky (bad idea) at the trade deadline nets you prospects and picks which is not what we need.
Beauty response... I eagerly scrolled scrolled down to see the comeback, but, shockingly, there wasn't one.
No name calling, or passive agressive insults, just using his own numbers against him... left him speechless.
I guess sometimes a guy is so dead set on trolling, that he doesn't clue in his own numbers completely contradict his arguement.
Well done.
For better or worse he stirs it up....He gets a lot of ink...and more responses than any of the writers on the site...
Personally I like about 30% of his posts...indifferent about 30%...and... enjoy whacking him on the nose with a newspaper like the dog he sometimes is... about 30% (the other 10% is just silliness)......like this...
Here's a recent conversation I had with him offline....
DSF: "Do you Like me?...Do you REALLY like me?
ORG: "No, I don't like you. I think you're a fake. The sound of your piss hitting the urinal, it sounds feminine. If you were in the wild, I would attack you, even if you weren't in my food chain. I would go out of my way to attack you. If I were a lion and you were a tuna, I would swim out in the middle of the ocean and freaking eat you and then I'd bang your tuna girlfriend.
(Translating that all literally...DSF responds...)
DSF: "OK, first off: a lion, SWIMMING IN THE OCEAN?? Lions don't like water. If you placed it near a river or some sort of fresh water source, that would make sense. But you find yourself in the ocean, 20 foot wave, I'm assuming off the coast of South Africa, coming up against a full grown 800 pound tuna with his 20 or 30 friends, you lose that battle, you lose that battle 9 times out of 10. And guess what, you've wandered into our school of tuna and we now have a taste of lion. We've talked to ourselves. We've communicated and said 'You know what, lion tastes good, let's go get some more lion'. We've developed a system to establish a beach-head and aggressively hunt you and your family and we will corner your pride, your children, your offspring.
ORG: (Plays Along) How you gonna do that?
DSF: We will construct a series of breathing apparatus with kelp. We will be able to trap certain amounts of oxygen. It's not gonna be days at a time. An hour? Hour forty-five? No problem. That will give us enough time to figure out where you live, go back to the sea, get some more oxygen, and stalk you. You just lost at your own game. You're outgunned and out-manned.
and that, for better or worse, is a typical DSF conversation...some find it annoying..some find it educational....me....I kind of enjoy it in some sick twisted way....but then I'm old and more than a little senile.
I was in the camp that saw him as the only reason to show up to RX1 most nights....... for years. Glad its gone well for him so far this year.
Also.
Shane O'Brien getting posterized warms the very essence of my being.
I remember gregor writing a piece before the deadline last year on why the Oilers should keep him.
http://oilersnation.com/2012/2/3/hemsky-in-limbo
He is so fearless in the offensive zone. Not just in the traditional "going to the tough areas" sense but he tries so many different things as a puck carrier. To see him take the puck behind the net, come out around, and take a long skate around to the blue line brings a smile to my face every time.
I admit - i thought all of the negative mentioned above. You made me eat crow Hemmer, i am enjoying every bite. Keep it up bud. I stand and applaud you efforts this year.
Just change the +/- please ! Damn Rookies ! lol
All out Tuesday OILERS !! 57 shots. Pound pound pound...
roughneck wrote:
Had lunch with my dad (a Canucks fan) today, and I ended up showing him the Hemsky goal.
"He pulled the pants off that defenceman," he said.
"Yeah, that's your old buddy Shane O'Brien."
He laughed and laughed.
i applauded the Hemsky deal at the previous deadline, and yet i think the time to move Hemsky is at the deadline this year.
a lot has changed since the last deadline, and i think the time to sell high on Hemsky is now.
sell to a playoff bound team along with a depth defenseman [peckham, teubert, potter] for a young second or third pairing defenseman on a great contract. that kind of thing.
I wanna keep Hemmer forever :C
Can we sign Jagr next year? and put him with Yak or Hemmer please.
Shane O'brien does not look like an NHL defenseman
if Dallas is bad enough, they're going to be trading him somewhere this year.
if Edmonton somehow miraculously manages to be in playoff position, and Dallas implodes following this Lehtonen injury, maybe we can get him this year!
Not on that play, but as a Hemsky fan for years (and fan of his contract last year) I like to tell myself that a large % of the D in the league would have been pants on that move.
Good article JW - the mgmt. gets a lot of flak for mistakes & inaction. Props deserve be handed out when due.**
**please, please ST give us more reasons to sing your praises**
We need to trade him, while his stock is at a high.
Let me begin by saying I am a huge Hemsky fan, but he is worth more now than he has in the last three years.
Hands up who thinks we can sign Hemsky for less then what he makes now?
We are going to have cap issues soon, Hemsky can bring a fairly good return.
Yakupov should be ready next year.
Add it up, Hemsky is the odds on favorite to be traded.
Hemsky has played well. What if were 11th 6 points out on April 5th? Will a team like New York come calling with a deal that makes sense enough that Hemsky is traded? I am concerned that Tambo lacks the wherewithall to pull the trigger for fear of making the wrong decsion.
Hemsky is scoring at an unsustainable 24%.
Considering he only has 3 assists in 14 games, is -3 and is 146th in the league in SOG, pronouncing his contract a good one is ridiculous.
Combine that with the likelihood that he will get injured, his $5M contract is an enormous overpay.
I can understand why the Oilers re-signed him but $5M, based on his performance since the lockout, is dumb.
There are only 3 forwards in the NHL who have contracts at $5M+ who have never scored 25 goals and the two of them play for the Oilers.
Death by paper cut.
Oh and JW, you are wrong.
What makes me smile is this quote by Jaromir Jagr (yes, that Jaromir Jagr):
"He’s got talent, if he goes to a different team, it would be like a new start. Maybe he could get 100 points. He’s that skilled. Sometimes staying in one place won’t help players. Maybe that’s what he needs."
Crazy to think where Hemsky's career would be if he didn't have injury issues or played on an awful Edmonton team for the bulk of his career.
At least Hemsky is only on a contract for 2 years. Sure it might be an overpay in some eyes (not mine), but it's a 2 year deal. The risk is minute. Meanwhile, you have Luongo, who's signed for another 10 years at a cap hit of 5.33 million and Garrison whom after one good year you sign him to a cap hit of 4.6 million per year for the next 6 years. So whatever buddy you talk about death by papercut
When I think of the Oilers Hemsky is the first person that comes to mind. He's one of my favourites, and I hope the Oil are able to keep him around for a long tim.
The short term is the only redeeming quality about his contract.
Comparing him to Luongo is ridiculous since one of them is an elite goaltender.
Garrison has been a great shutdown defenseman for 3 years (look it up) and took a discount to play for the Canucks.
Have you checked the standings recently?
weve taken to calling him the Dangletron3000 in our household... agreed, hemsky is a love hate relationship
Hemsky is way to good for the ECHL!
yep and its not half bad. Fall back cover fire question by DSF
I hope the Oilers can keep Hemmer til he retires, the only thing that scares me about him is if he does stay injury free(nothing major) and he stays on the pace he's on for the next 2 yrs, what will he want $$ wise? cant keep him if he wants more than 5mil per.
Same could be said about Gagner too.
Big decisions for Dithers indeed!! dont Fcuk this up tambo!!
Nonsense.
Since the last lockout, Parise has scored 202 goals and and 422 points and is +57.
Hemsky has scored 113 goals and 377 points and is -28.
Not even close.