Big Decisions: Signing Ales Hemsky
Jonathan Willis
February 18 2013 03:57PM
There are those who believe that the Edmonton Oilers made a mistake when they re-signed pending unrestricted free agent Ales Hemsky to a two-year/$10 million contract extension just under one year ago.
Those people are wrong. The Oilers made the right decision.
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
One of the more difficult parts of assessing a player is recognizing when a short-term trend is likely to continue or stop. At the time the Oilers re-signed Hemsky, he had played 47 games, scored just five times, and recorded 21 assists. He also had a minus-14 rating. The five goals quickly became a punch line, as pundits joked that the Oilers gave Hemsky ‘a million for every goal he scored.’
The problem was that Hemsky’s dismal performance stood in such stark contrast to his previous work in the NHL. The following are Hemsky’s basic statistics from the five years preceding 2011-12, as well as an average 47-game segment from that span. The last row has Hemsky’s numbers as of the date the Oilers re-signed him.
The difference is striking. Hemsky’s shots were down by a third, the number of shots taken that went in were down by half, and his assist totals were down by one-third.
The reasons for the slump are open to debate. But the Oilers needed to decide whether or not Hemsky’s rough 2011-12 represented the new normal for him, or if it was a temporary lull after which he could be expected to return to his traditional levels of production.
Hemsky’s played 36 games since then; I don’t think the answer is 100 percent clear yet.
It’s Not A Choice, It’s A Lack Of Options
The other issue, one that was obvious at the time, was that somebody was going to play Hemsky’s minutes. At the time, it was not possible to know that the Oilers would end up drafting first overall and picking Nail Yakupov, but even if they had known that ahead of time it would have been folly to expect a fresh-faced rookie to step in and add the kind of scoring Hemsky is capable of.
The free agent market was just as miserable. In terms of established offensive talent, there simply weren’t a lot of options. The Oilers could have gone hard after Zach Parise, or they would have been stuck trying to attract a Ray Whitney, Jaromir Jagr, Alex Semin or Jiri Hudler to town.
Right now, it looks like the 41-year old Jagr would have turned out pretty good. He got a one-year, $4.55 million contract from Dallas. The simple fact is that to replace Hemsky, the Oilers would have been forced to gamble that they could attract one of the few scoring options on the market, and they would be spending roughly the same money.
Alternatively, they could have let Hemsky go, and made a second line out of some combination of Ryan Smyth, Magnus Paajarvi, Teemu Hartikainen or Linus Omark (since at the time it seemed likely they would be picking after the Yakupov selection). While a possible choice, at some point the ‘dwell in the NHL basement and collect draft picks’ phase of a rebuild has to give way to a ‘make the team better’ segment, and keeping Hemsky was a necessary first step.
The Long Run
The Oilers opted to sign Hemsky to a bridge deal – they gave him money, but not term. His $5 million per season was a respectable figure, but the Oilers only committed to it for two seasons – allowing them flexibility if Hemsky failed to return to form, or if the combination of youth on expiring contracts/a falling salary cap (keep in mind that Hemsky was signed before the new CBA came into being) forced the team to shed dollars. It was a sensible choice at the time, and it looks pretty good in retrospect.
It seems likely that at some point in the near future, Hemsky will be a casualty of the salary cap, and the internal difficulties of keeping a trio of right wings – Hemsky, Yakupov and Jordan Eberle – in the system long-term. Hemsky’s the oldest of the group, and his injuries over the years have doubtless made the team hesitant to write him into the long-term plans. At this time next year, the Oilers will face the same decision they did a year ago – to sign Hemsky to a new deal, to trade him at the deadline, or to hang on to him and lose him for nothing in the summer.
If and when Hemsky does leave, I’ll be disappointed. For years, he’s been far and away the most entertaining player on the team, a uniquely gifted forward and on some nights one of the few reasons to watch a team bound for another year in the basement. He’s been called soft, and it’s been suggested at times that he’s lazy, but he’s a guy who seemingly never hesitated to take a hit to make a play, or sacrifice his body to retrieve a puck in the corner, and to me that says more about his on-ice character and his willingness than hit totals, interviews, or what time he leaves practice ever will.
But if Hemsky leaves town because it doesn’t make sense for the team to keep him, I’ll understand that. That could be the case a year from now. It certainly wasn’t the case a year ago.
PREVIOUSLY IN THIS SERIES
@DSF
@DSF
What exactly are your criteria for a "great shutdown D-man"? Considering prior to this season Garrison has only played 2 full NHL seasons prior to this one and had a combined +4 in those two seasons that doesnt scream "great" to me...
It was a nice change of pace to see us keep the guy who made this team watchable during some absolutely awful seasons. Unfortunately, he likely won't be around to see this team reach it's potential. I definitely have time for a player like Hemmer who has more try than he is given credit for and has carried the load for many bad teams over the years.
Garrison was playing on a very bad Florida team that was -24, -34 and -36 in his 3 full seasons there.
That he finished +13 in his 3 seasons there tells you pretty much all you need to know.
He's currently +7 with the Canucks which would translate to +42 over a full 82 game season.
The best Oiler defenseman who has played 10 games is Justin Schultz who is currently -2 which translates to about -10 over a full season.
Huge difference.
PPG is silly in assessing Hemsky.
He's had a long history of injury and one of these players also knows how to play defense and the other doesn't.
Your use of averages while ignoring reality is hilarious.
The Oilers hands were tied, what did you expected the management to do in that situation? he was worth nothing on the open market then.
It’s a good signing in that the Oiler were banking on Hemsky returning to what he was capable of.
I think it was one of the very few correct signing the Oilers management has done.
I agree they had little choice but to re-sign him although I believe, had he been healthy, the best thing would have been to trade him at the deadline.
Paying him $5M over 2 years though is nonsense based on his production.
If they are smart, they will trade him at the upcoming deadline but I expect they won't.
Why is it were so quick to sell Hemmer? Been our best player past ten years and looks rejuvenated if anything they should talking extension. Hall, Eberle, Schultz, Nuge, Yak and Hemmer can be attainable at 5-6 million per year. The cap will be at 90 million in a few years.
Good topic Willis.
Your use of statistics could also be called into question especially the article on cult of hockey referring that Yakupov would be better off on another line is inaccurate.
89-and 83 are the reason the second line is floundering, both Hemskys and Gagners numbers both are better when playing with Yakupov then without him.
The WOWY numbers for both 89 and 83 are BETTER with Yakupov than without. If you want references I will get them.
Also let’s not forget about RNH…………………….Still to soon to let it go Willis. ;)
I think were talking the same language here, tough spot for the Oilers, I honestly think they would have unloaded him too.
I'm not upset at the money, might make it hard to trade him but I doubt it.....There is really no other option but a trade.
The Oilers would be going backwards if they extended him.
Exactly.
Ales Hemsky - 14GP 7G 3A 10P -3 Cap Hit $5M
Nazem Kadri - 15GP 4G 8A 12P +4 Cap hit $1.7M
See ya Ales.
@otter2233
Good grief.
Garrison is a defenseman who has played the toughs throughout his career.
His +- is stellar.
Hemsky has been owned by the opposition.
Sam Gagner - 14GP 4G 11A 15P -2 $3.2 cap hit
Kyle Wellwood - 12GP 0G 2A 2P 0+/- $1.6 cap hit
See ya DSF.
Good GMs find value.
Because Ovechkin looks like a mistake doesn't mean Hemsky is any better value.
Hemsky does NOT provide value and when you consider his shooting percentage is ridiculous, he's pretty pedestrian.
@DSF
DSF I know you are just looking for an argument but ya great comparison... sounds like you sure know your hockey. Hemsky's contract is fine and he is an excellent skilled player that brings fans out of there seats.
LOL.
If the best you can do in comparing a 6th overall pick to a dweeb who was picked in the 5th round, it's quite sad, actually.
OF COURSE Kadri has more value right now, he's 22. However, you can't overlook Hemsky's performance at the moment. His value is much higher than it was this time last year. It doesn't matter if YOU don't think so, other GM's are taking notice.
So you want to sign Hemsky because he excites you and the fans??? Well........that’s sound logic! We better sign him right away!
That's it...right in your post.
He is performing at the moment, his value is probable as high as it will go, so now would be the best time to trade him.
I like Hemsky, but he's not going to get us anymore value then he would right now.
I think we can all agree that someone has to go.
IF Hemsky was shooting his career shooting percentage of 11.6% he would have 3G and 3A.
6 points would have him around 200th in NHL points.
Don't think NHL GM's can't see he's riding the percentages.
What are you talking about? How can you even use that as an argument?
So explain then, how you are going to re-extend Hemsky's contract, and get other essential players onto the team?
I said I like Hemsky, has nothing to with the player it has to do with the numbers.
Hemsky WILL start to decline in the next couple years; you want to extend a declining player?
This is about the team and the future.
Besides, GM's with contending teams aren't as conservative as you once it gets down to crunch time. They want to build a team that will push them to the Holy Grail, and Hemsky can be looked at as that piece of the puzzle.
Besides, GM's with contending teams aren't as conservative as you once it gets down to crunch time. They want to build a team that will push them to the Holy Grail, and Hemsky can be looked at as that piece of the puzzle.
Good grief.
Common sense will tell you that a player that has been injury prone througthout his career will be injury prone in the future.
It's why Gillis wouldn't sign Salo, Mitchell and Ohlund to long term deals.
I'd still take Hemsky over the sedin sisters anyday
Ya i like hemsky , always have , he is entertaining to watch . Can have the sickest dekes and perfect passes. Im sure he will continue to light it up with all the other boys and we will make the playoffs this year and go on a solid run. I feel like i need oilers playoff hockey this year . Lets go oilers. (throws on nation hoodie and runs around neighbourhood screaming lets go oilers lets go )
Results.
Matter.
Yes he is playing well, and no it's not a bad signing now..........what about next year?
what happens if he gets hurt in a contract year?
What are you going to get next trade deadliine when teams know he's a UFA at season end?
Would you extend his contract?
Fact is, he is at his peak now, and would be a great asset to use.
7 years, no playoffs.
7 years, In the playoffs every season.
Good call.
I would re-extend Hemsky's contract just like any other, by negotiation.
I don't know what other "essential" players are exactly needed or whom exactly you are reffering to. At the moment, re-signing Hemsky is only a bad idea in your head. I don't know why you feel that way.
I believe Kevin Lowe and the Oilganization know what they are doing. I also believe that Hemsky would even take a pay cut(if necessary) to stay here. I don't believe that is it, or ever was, the best idea for the Oilers or Hemsky to send him away.
Hemsky is signed for another year, and then who knows.
How do you know Hemsky is a declining player? What do you know that we don't? What stats and percentages did you use to come up with that conclusion? Please explain.
What exactly is about the team and the future? What exactly is the problem here and with Hemsky?
At the end of the day, nobody has ever called Hemsky soft
What do you think we would get for Hemsky if we traded him? I would not extend his contract until the end of next year around the same time we extended it before. Why get rid of Hemmer when he is playing well... its not like we are going to trick another GM into giving up a 3-4 defenseman or a big centre. Wait till the trade deadline and if there is a good offer then make the decision. I say we roll with this team and see if we make the playoffs, if anyone I would trade Hartikanen... he's soft and has no hands. What could we get for him?
Well, I don’t visit malls, if you read my post's I like Hemsky, seems to me you’re the one being confrontational.
I'm debating on keeping Hemsky vs. trading him just like the article say's, what are you doing? Cutting me down for my opinion,Class. As to your other post explain to me when the last person took a pay cut to stay on the Oilers?
If you can’t see what other essential players the Oilers need then I’m just wasting my time having this conversation, the Oilers have many holes in the lineup, how do you propose the Oilers fill them?
I know Hemsky is a declining player because there are mountains of stats that say players decline after 30, that’s the nature of getting old. As for Hemsky having another year and “who knows” your right, who knows, maybe he gets hurt in a contract year…..then what? Keep on signing him.
http://capgeek.com/oilers
please explain how the Oilers are going to fit under the cap in 3 years? You want to keep him then tell what players go?
Who is going to replace the players leaving while fitting in Hemsky and his 5 million dollar cap hit.
The sad reality is that you have to trade players while they're playing good if you want fair value out of them, just ask scott howson. If I was Steve, I'd trade some of our pipe dream defensive prospects in a package for a roster defenseman, and not a depth d, a top 4 please.
Hartikainen is hurt so not much, even then not much when he's healthy unless you package him.
Not that what you’re saying is wrong, so please don’t take this the wrong way, but what happens if Hemsky gets hurt next year?
All I am saying is that his value is at a peak right now, he is worth more on the open market now, he could be even more so next year but do you take the chance?
I don’t see how the Oilers re-sign the players they need to, players that have to fill replacement players spots, re-sign RNH-Yakupov-Schultz and keep Hemsky….it’s not going to happen.
Well yeah, but what GM agrees to that? I can't think of a single team, off the top of my head (cap trouble or not), that would have any conceivable reason for trading a top-4 defenseman for prospects and Hemsky.
@Idries Shah
Nothing to do with nothing is a double-negative that ends up implying the opposite. Whoops!
@Walter "Wes" Sobchak
I don't think we should trade Hemsky, in the same way I don't think we should trade any of our top 6 players, unless an offer too good to refuse is offered. Personally, the only completely untouchable players on our team are Hall, Nuge and Schultz.
@Walter "Wes" Sobchak
On the WOWY numbers... had a long discussion on that here earlier today. One of my comments:
You can disagree, but that's how I see it. By eye and by number.
@Hall for President
How high can Hemsky's trade value be? He has 10 points in 14 games... what could he get for him that would make the Oil a contender... we have the cap space right now so I would not be in a rush to ship him out. I say we trade Kleffbom (spelling) for a hard nose defenseman, he seems softer then Petry and comes with a pretty good resume so maybe we can trick the Islanders for example to giving up some grit for him. Hopefully the Oilers know what they are doing but a couple our pro scouts I think are one of the Sutters and Semenko so maybe we should stand pat for a while.
A scorer who actually has a solid playmaking reputation could bring home more than you think from a contending team. As I said before, if a GM thinks his team is good enough for a legitimate cup run, they'll make a move for Hemsky. Part of me wants Hemsky to stay with Edmonton for his entire career, but I know deep down that our core is sitting between the ages of 19-23, aka fab 5
@DSF
Good gravy... Garrison played only 2.5 seasons there and was +9... You are basing his playing against toughs on what data exactly??? I may give you last season when the Panthers made the playoffs and therefore can't really be considered a bad team as season he played against most top lines but the previous 1.5 seasons, not so much... And the Oil have actually made the playoffs twice with Hemsky...
Nothing is a negative, there isn't another negative there. The second appearance of nothing is employed as an intesifier and should be understood as strengthening the negation rather than removing it.
There are so many things that need to play out first before decisions are made on trading or keeping front line players! Is Yakupov going to be the real deal & fit in with the team? We're seeing Ebs, Hallsy & Nuge are but what about some others? Is Gagner going to continue to grow, looks good with him but the next 12 months are going to be very important to see where everything fits!
@Idries Shah
I've reconsidered my position. You're still wrong, but so was I.
Nothing isn't negative - it is like zero, which implies the complete absence of something. The same way you can't "extra-zero" something, you can't "intensify" a nothing.
Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa Oil.
The answer is the question, its so obvious that even Tambelini might figure it out?
You have 4 high end right wingers.. Eberle, Yakapov, and Hemsky... all skillful, fast and expensive. Hemsky is the oldest of the bunch , so its obvious that he's the odd man out.
You might suggest well either him or Yak move to the left side, then you will have a cap issue.
I would wait to trade dead line, to see where the Oilers are, and also you get your best value at that point.
I would trade him for O Reily's rights , who would be your second line ctr, and Gagner would be the third line guy. Would give you three decent center men.
Ideally you would go for a D Man, but you wont get a top 4 D man for Hemsky.
Its unfortunate, but this team has a poor track record in drafting and more so developing players from within.[PS. lotto kids dont count as good drafting]
@Gazmort
Zero is like nothing, but, nothing is not like zero.
You're right, you can't "extra zero" something. But you're wrong, I just showed you how to "intensify" a nothing.
@Idries Shah
An impasse. I tip my hat to you good sir. We will agree to disagree.
I'm just DSFing you. To be honest, English is my 4th language and I don't even know if what I was saying really made sense.
Speaking of impasse-I refuse to play chess with that stupid rule.
I also hate the agree to disagree statement, it is made for people who aren't very stern on their stances. I like to argue until you agree with me.;-')