See What You Want In These Edmonton Oilers
Jonathan Willis
February 20 2013 01:45PM
What order the wins and losses came in really doesn’t matter. The Oilers went 4-2-1 in January, and optimism abounded; so far they’ve gone 2-4-2 in February and consequently optimism is in short supply. What matters is that the team is 6-6-3 on the season, sits 11th in the Western Conference, and is just one win out of either the final playoff spot or second-last.
And that means whatever viewpoint one subscribes to – the ‘yes, they’ll make the playoffs’ or ‘Draft Lottery IV: This Time It’s Personal’, there’s something there to back it.
The Amazing 2005-06 Oilers!
The 2005-06 edition of the Edmonton Oilers – also known as the most successful playoff team iced by the franchise since the glory years – started the post-lockout era in mediocre fashion. With a nasty, seven-game road-trip coming up in November, getting off to a good start was important but the Oilers flopped, going 6-6-1 in their first 13 games.
There was a lot of hype entering the season with a pair of high-profile additions – Chris Pronger and Michael Peca – having joined the team. Unfortuantely, in the early going that hype was difficult to justify, particularly with Peca struggling, and the Oilers looked much like the same team they were before the lockout – a team that was life and death for the playoffs and bound for at best a plucky first round victory followed by a quick second round defeat.
The road trip turned out to be not so bad – the Oilers went 4-and-3, hung around until the deadline when Kevin Lowe was able to add Dwayne Roloson from Minnesota and finally solidify the goaltending. The Oilers were a greatly underrated team entering the playoffs – far better than their eighth seed would suggest – and ultimately made it to the Stanley Cup finals, where the loss of Roloson to injury likely cost Kevin Lowe a Cup ring as general manager.
The ‘Worst In Franchise History’ 2009-10 Oilers!
The 2009-10 edition of the Edmonton Oilers – a team that sunk to previously unknown depths, arguably the worst-constructed team in club history – started off in mediocre fashion. With a five-game road-trip on the horizon, the Oilers went 7-7-1 over their first 15 contests, cooling after a 6-2-1 start.
There was a lot of hype entering the season, as Steve Tambellini had his first real chance to put a stamp on the franchise and recruited two high-profile additions – legendary head coach Pat Quinn and new starting goaltender Nikolai Kahbibulin. Fan opinion had drifted downward somewhat after the hot start, and this team seemed like a decent bet to finish in more or less the same place previous editions had – either barely in or barely out of the post-season.
The Oilers went 1-2-2 on the road-trip; not a strong record but not an awful one either, and then Khabibulin hit his first major injury as an Oiler (the last game he played that season was the final one of the road-trip). Replacement Jeff Deslauriers would keep the Oilers competitive for a while, but by the new year it was clear the team was doomed and management decided that ‘rebuild through the draft’ would be the club’s new mantra.
Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before…
The 2013 edition of the Edmonton Oilers have started their season in mediocre fashion. With a brutal, nine-game road-trip coming up the team has a 6-6-3 record, having cooled after a 4-2-1 start. There was a lot of hype entering the season, given the expected maturation of the young core as well as a pair of high-profile additions in free agent defenceman Justin Schultz and first overall pick Nail Yakupov but the optimistic talk has died down of late given their recent troubles.
The outcome of the road trip, as well as of the season, are yet to be determined. I expected this edition of the team to finish just outside the playoffs, with some potential to rise or fall depending on things like injury. I still feel comfortable with that prediction; this team’s performance this year hasn’t been especially surprising to me.
With that said, the examples of the 2005-06 and 2009-10 teams show that this is one of those things that could still take a ‘Crazy Ivan’ and change dramatically. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely they could. Could they end up in the bottom five for the fourth consecutive year? That too is a possibility. The fate of the 2013 Oilers is yet to be determined, and it’s not that hard to look one way and see a playoff team, or look the other and see another wasted season.
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@Rama Lama
I haven't said anything about who is doing the building. I'm not a Tambellini apologist, but I think credit is best given where deserved. He was able to move a few players for what was likely at or above market value (Staios for Johnson and a 3rd, Grebeshkov for a 2nd, Penner for Teubert a 1st and a 3rd, etc). And he revamped what was a wholly dysfunctional farm system.
Are there better examples of how to build a team, heck yes. Ray Shero looks pretty good, but it was Craig Patrick who got that ball rolling. Dale Tallon did some decent work, and took the fall in Chicago for what was, ostensibly, Stan Bowman's blunder, but again, it was Bob Pulford who started that process as well.
I wouldn't be opposed to the Oilers replacing Tambellini, provided it isn't with someone whose resume screams "win now".
As for the crux of my original statement, I'm not arguing about the wins or losses, or whether the Oilers need a Lucic or an O'Reilly, but rather that those player they do have are showing signs of improving and executing the game at a higher level than previous seasons.
I have no idea what the exact plan is for this management group, and I'm not going to defend every action they take. But there are far, far worse examples of how to run a hockey team in this league, in this division even, than what we have here in Edmonton.
As a side note, Kool Aid gets a bad rap, as it wasn't actually the drink of choice at Jonestown, but instead was Flavor-Aid, a similar product that was widely available in South America due to marketing towards the North American Hispanic community.
Normally I don't draw many conclusions until the 20 game mark but since this is a shortened season let's take a rational look.
Points after 15 games:
2011/12: 20
2013: 15
Being 5 points in arrears to the team that finished 29th is not a good sign.
GF/G
2011/12: 2.52
2013: 2.33
The Oilers are scoring at a lower rate than they did last season.
GA/G
2011/12: 2.83
2013: 2.67
One bright spot is that goals against are down marginally.
GF/GA DIFF
2011/12: -.31
2013: -.34
THe goal differential is actually worse than the team that finished -27 last season.
SF/G
2011/12: 26.7
2013: 28.7
SA/G
2011/12: 30.7
2013: 33.6
Shot Diff/G
2011/12 -4.0
2013 -4.9
Shots are up slightly but they are giving up even more resulting in an even worse differential.
PP
2011/12: 20.6
2013: 23.9
The PP is somewhat better but it should be noted that the opposition has figured out the Oilers PP and is denying them zone entry and Schultz point shots.
Important to note that in 8 games in February, the Oilers PP has scored 6 times on 40 chances.
That is 15% which would rank them in the lower third of the league in PP efficiency.
Also worth noting is that Justin Schultz appears to have also been figured out by the opposition.
In 7 games in January, he scored 5 points and was +2
in 8 games in February he has scored 3 points and is -7
And he has ONE ES assist in 15 games...no goals.
Better hope for a couple of wins in the next two games or this could get ugly real fast.
Or maybe Schulz is playing hurt or is running out of gas in his first pro season playing way more hockey than he did in college - "the opposition figuring him out" is a bit of a leap
1) They didn't deserve to win the game against Columbus. If Columbus had won that game, the Oilers would be in 14th, one point ahead of the 15th place Jackets.
2) Please see my post above. The Oilers are playing WORSE than last year by almost any metric.
3) Setting up a strawman argument like the Kessel trade is a waste of oxygen....especially since the Leafs are currently tied with the Bruins, 3 points out of top spot in the EC while the Oilers are desperately trying to stay ahead of Calgary and Columbus and Calgary could pass them if they win their game in hand tonight.
4) The buzzsaw WAS a mirage. Colorado was playing without 3 of its best players and, even then, it took an empty net goal to beat them by two.
Since all but 1 of his points in January were on the PP, I sincerely doubt it's because he's "running out of gas"
He's only played 49 games this season.
Assuming he's hurt is the real leap and always the excuse in Oilerville when a player isn't getting it done.
So the reason the Oilers didn't win the cup was because of MacT? He took a mediocre team to the finals and you blame him for not taking the ship?
He did a good job and got a lot out of his line-ups. Something the Oilers haven't enjoyed since Sathers 2nd stint with a stacked line-up. Krueger hasn't had enough games to be weighed in the Oilers coaching history.
In my opinion, at this point Oiler fans should applaud MacT's decisions rather than ridicule them. He most often challenged for a playoff spot with a budget team. The blender may not have been pretty but it won games the line-up shouldn't have.
The crux of your argument is centered around puck-management and how certain players have improved in this area.
Given what the article was intended to discuss " see what you want in these Edmonton Oilers", and the string, you picked a very minor point of improvement to discuss.
I too like that the Oilers are exhibiting better puck management skills on the top line, but there are some glaring holes in this line-up that need to be addressed. My biggest challenge is that our top six ( all are small) forwards are being set-up for failure, by not having a solid supporting cast to help them carry the load. Yes we do have some up and comers on the bottom six.........but all I can think of is just who will protect our young guns from guys like Raffi Torres, Curtis Glencross, and Dustin Brown? Our talent is getting run out there with no response.
We are one or two concussions away from hiring a true enforcer!
Read this and get back to me:
http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/02/19/game-notes-oilerskings-feb-19/
An excerpt:
"Just a horrible game on so many levels here. Sam Gagner put up a season worst -16 even strength Corsi, beating his own record of -14. He was on for 6 shots for, and 22 against. Think about that. Almost 4 times as many shots were taken against his net as he got off on theirs. And therein lies the contradiction of Samwise. The guy has the offensive talent level to complement great players and put up points, but his overall play this season at even strength has been extremely, unquestionably poor. Out of the 15 games played so far, he’s had one of the worst three Corsi rates on the Oilers 8 times. I’m not sure what’s wrong with the second line, but it’s not working, and not having a serviceable second line will kill this team’s chances of making the playoffs.
Something is wrong with Justin Schultz. He’s taken a nose dive the last few games, enough to be the 3rd worst skater against the kings on a per minute basis. I think the back injury is worse than the team is letting on. We better hope it’s a back injury."
The bottom line is Schultz has been dreadful for almost a month.
Ya, total bust. Wish we hadn't even got him now.... You were right all along.
Drink up them sour grapes.
This^ 100%
it make to much sense, watch how you come across or you get crucified by loyalists.
No one said he was a bust...he's just isn't what you think he is.
Kevin Shattenkirk scored 6 goals and 28 points at ES as a rookie coming out of Boston University and another 3 goals and 15 points on the PP.
Schultz can't hold his jock.
Drink that Kool Aid
DSF, the Oilers didn't desrve to beat Colombus, granted, but they deserved a better fate against Dallas. It took 2 flukey goals for the Oiler to lose that one. Against LA it took a linesman stripping the puck from Taylor Hall to help LA beat Edmonton.
Also, the depleted Colorado Avalanche beat a pretty good Nashville team after losing to the Oilers.
Unlike last year, the Oilers are not taken for granted, and if memory serves, they haven't seen a lot of backup goaltenders.
Oh, no doubt the Hockey Gods balance things out but one nimrod above was suggesting the Oilers should be in a better position than they are based on one game which is just nonsense.
They're outshot and outchanced on a regular basis just like many seasons before.
If other teams can shutdown the PP, it's game over.
The Oilers are the worst team in the league 5V5 and the PP has gone in the tank.
@Lofty
Unpopular opinion here, but I think Chris Pronger took the Oilers to the Finals. Best defenceman in the world at that time. The next year he put Anaheim over the top against a very skilled Ottawa squad, and a couple of years later he helped lead Philly in a losing effort against a stacked, young, fast Chicago team.
All due respect to MacT, but the subsequent seasons of failure suggest that it wasn't him carrying the Oil to the promised land.
@DSF
Ahem, Flavor-Aid.
;-)
Schultz wasn't awful when he went over the Columbus player to lift his stick and made the most beautiful defensive play I've every seen. He's a rookie who looks like he'll be really good. There will be bumps along the road.
Also yes we should have lost the Columbus game but we should have won the Dallas game. It evens out.
The point of this article was starts aren't everything. This team could end up anywhere.
Hardly unpopular, its the truth. He was in his prime with the Oilers and arguably the best player in the world at the time. You are right, he made a lot of coaches look brilliant.
You are right. We sure screwed up on getting J. Schultz for free. Fail.
I guess we saved the other 29 teams who would love to have him from the embarrassment. Shame....
Nope.
I think he'll be a fine player.
He just isn't the Messiah that many here make him out to be.
When he grows up, he could even be as good as Kevin Bieksa.
Almost the entire Oilers core is under the age of 24. I am not certain it is fair to expect them to be world beaters just yet. I think it is fair to expect them to win on any given night against any given team however. And yes, that also means beating the Wild and the Stars, two of the primary Oiler killing teams.
Tommorrow night we shall see.
Shattenkirk has 14 points, leads all NHL defensemen in scoring, and is +2
In his rookie season, he scored 9 goals and 43 points.
Keep reaching.
Jonathan, it is more like this:
Could they make the playoffs? That is a possibility. Could they end up in the bottom five for the fourth consecutive year? Absolutely they could. The fate of the 2013 Oilers is yet to be determined, and it’s very hard to look one way and see a playoff team, or easily look the other and see another wasted season.
Remember Strudwick: Patience, patience, patience? And keeping expectations low?
Sorry to say this, but I agree with Trent:
They won't win the Cup with this management, give them 5 years and the 1st pick every year, they still lose.
The future of the team will depend on Mr. Katz and his decision on keeping or firing the management of hockey operations and replacing them with competent people. Over to you, Darryl.
By the way.
Sheldon Souray - 4G 4A 8P +13
Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5.
Yipee!
Thats' progress.
@Rama Lama
Haha! Good show.
DSF you are the king of small sample sizes -- we've been over this before.
I would argue he is even better than Shea Weber already! 3-4-7 +2 in 17 games. Man he is a bust not worth that salary at all.
About a minute before your comment I was about to say exactly what you said. Just not as eloquently.
I now only read Oilersnation articles (and not the comments section) 'cause I can't handle the "DSF Show" anymore. I made the mistake of reading the comments today and I remember why I stopped...
If you compare Brownlee, Gregor, Lowetide or Willis articles to musical performances, DSF is the equivalent of a guy in the back row mouth-breathing through a harmonica. You're ruining the show dude, and we're not here for you.
I've seen your "I like to get a rise out of people" brand before. It's neither funny nor intellectually stimulating - it's a coping mechanism. I'm not angry, I just feel sorry for you.
...Mister B...you have the power to block him from entering the ON site no?
...do it
...within days there will be an internet riot to get him back here and out of exile
It's like tragic comedy though. Any time DSF comments, it incites at least 70 comments per thread.
I'm ok with it. If I don't feel like tossing him a bone under his bridge, I skip on by.