See What You Want In These Edmonton Oilers

Jonathan Willis
February 20 2013 01:45PM

What order the wins and losses came in really doesn’t matter. The Oilers went 4-2-1 in January, and optimism abounded; so far they’ve gone 2-4-2 in February and consequently optimism is in short supply. What matters is that the team is 6-6-3 on the season, sits 11th in the Western Conference, and is just one win out of either the final playoff spot or second-last.

And that means whatever viewpoint one subscribes to – the ‘yes, they’ll make the playoffs’ or ‘Draft Lottery IV: This Time It’s Personal’, there’s something there to back it.

The Amazing 2005-06 Oilers!

The 2005-06 edition of the Edmonton Oilers – also known as the most successful playoff team iced by the franchise since the glory years – started the post-lockout era in mediocre fashion. With a nasty, seven-game road-trip coming up in November, getting off to a good start was important but the Oilers flopped, going 6-6-1 in their first 13 games.

There was a lot of hype entering the season with a pair of high-profile additions – Chris Pronger and Michael Peca – having joined the team. Unfortuantely, in the early going that hype was difficult to justify, particularly with Peca struggling, and the Oilers looked much like the same team they were before the lockout – a team that was life and death for the playoffs and bound for at best a plucky first round victory followed by a quick second round defeat.

The road trip turned out to be not so bad – the Oilers went 4-and-3, hung around until the deadline when Kevin Lowe was able to add Dwayne Roloson from Minnesota and finally solidify the goaltending. The Oilers were a greatly underrated team entering the playoffs – far better than their eighth seed would suggest – and ultimately made it to the Stanley Cup finals, where the loss of Roloson to injury likely cost Kevin Lowe a Cup ring as general manager.

The ‘Worst In Franchise History’ 2009-10 Oilers!

The 2009-10 edition of the Edmonton Oilers – a team that sunk to previously unknown depths, arguably the worst-constructed team in club history – started off in mediocre fashion. With a five-game road-trip on the horizon, the Oilers went 7-7-1 over their first 15 contests, cooling after a 6-2-1 start.

There was a lot of hype entering the season, as Steve Tambellini had his first real chance to put a stamp on the franchise and recruited two high-profile additions – legendary head coach Pat Quinn and new starting goaltender Nikolai Kahbibulin. Fan opinion had drifted downward somewhat after the hot start, and this team seemed like a decent bet to finish in more or less the same place previous editions had – either barely in or barely out of the post-season.

The Oilers went 1-2-2 on the road-trip; not a strong record but not an awful one either, and then Khabibulin hit his first major injury as an Oiler (the last game he played that season was the final one of the road-trip). Replacement Jeff Deslauriers would keep the Oilers competitive for a while, but by the new year it was clear the team was doomed and management decided that ‘rebuild through the draft’ would be the club’s new mantra.

Stop Me If You’ve Heard This Before…

The 2013 edition of the Edmonton Oilers have started their season in mediocre fashion. With a brutal, nine-game road-trip coming up the team has a 6-6-3 record, having cooled after a 4-2-1 start. There was a lot of hype entering the season, given the expected maturation of the young core as well as a pair of high-profile additions in free agent defenceman Justin Schultz and first overall pick Nail Yakupov but the optimistic talk has died down of late given their recent troubles.

The outcome of the road trip, as well as of the season, are yet to be determined. I expected this edition of the team to finish just outside the playoffs, with some potential to rise or fall depending on things like injury. I still feel comfortable with that prediction; this team’s performance this year hasn’t been especially surprising to me.

With that said, the examples of the 2005-06 and 2009-10 teams show that this is one of those things that could still take a ‘Crazy Ivan’ and change dramatically. Could they make the playoffs? Absolutely they could. Could they end up in the bottom five for the fourth consecutive year? That too is a possibility. The fate of the 2013 Oilers is yet to be determined, and it’s not that hard to look one way and see a playoff team, or look the other and see another wasted season.

Recently by Jonathan Willis

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is Managing Editor of the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He was previously founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca.
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#51 David
February 20 2013, 08:23PM
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DSF wrote:

Read this and get back to me:

http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/02/19/game-notes-oilerskings-feb-19/

An excerpt:

"Just a horrible game on so many levels here. Sam Gagner put up a season worst -16 even strength Corsi, beating his own record of -14. He was on for 6 shots for, and 22 against. Think about that. Almost 4 times as many shots were taken against his net as he got off on theirs. And therein lies the contradiction of Samwise. The guy has the offensive talent level to complement great players and put up points, but his overall play this season at even strength has been extremely, unquestionably poor. Out of the 15 games played so far, he’s had one of the worst three Corsi rates on the Oilers 8 times. I’m not sure what’s wrong with the second line, but it’s not working, and not having a serviceable second line will kill this team’s chances of making the playoffs.

Something is wrong with Justin Schultz. He’s taken a nose dive the last few games, enough to be the 3rd worst skater against the kings on a per minute basis. I think the back injury is worse than the team is letting on. We better hope it’s a back injury."

The bottom line is Schultz has been dreadful for almost a month.

Schultz wasn't awful when he went over the Columbus player to lift his stick and made the most beautiful defensive play I've every seen. He's a rookie who looks like he'll be really good. There will be bumps along the road.

Also yes we should have lost the Columbus game but we should have won the Dallas game. It evens out.

The point of this article was starts aren't everything. This team could end up anywhere.

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#52 dougtheslug
February 20 2013, 08:29PM
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MarcusBillius wrote:

Unpopular opinion here, but I think Chris Pronger took the Oilers to the Finals. Best defenceman in the world at that time. The next year he put Anaheim over the top against a very skilled Ottawa squad, and a couple of years later he helped lead Philly in a losing effort against a stacked, young, fast Chicago team.

All due respect to MacT, but the subsequent seasons of failure suggest that it wasn't him carrying the Oil to the promised land.

Hardly unpopular, its the truth. He was in his prime with the Oilers and arguably the best player in the world at the time. You are right, he made a lot of coaches look brilliant.

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#53 Todd
February 20 2013, 08:29PM
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DSF wrote:

No one said he was a bust...he's just isn't what you think he is.

Kevin Shattenkirk scored 6 goals and 28 points at ES as a rookie coming out of Boston University and another 3 goals and 15 points on the PP.

Schultz can't hold his jock.

Drink that Kool Aid

You are right. We sure screwed up on getting J. Schultz for free. Fail.

I guess we saved the other 29 teams who would love to have him from the embarrassment. Shame....

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#54 Mikey
February 20 2013, 08:31PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

This^ 100%

it make to much sense, watch how you come across or you get crucified by loyalists.

Your a flip flopper. Since you have now come to the conclusion this is a good year to get another pick, then why was it a bad year for a new system?

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#55 DSF
February 20 2013, 08:34PM
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Todd wrote:

You are right. We sure screwed up on getting J. Schultz for free. Fail.

I guess we saved the other 29 teams who would love to have him from the embarrassment. Shame....

Nope.

I think he'll be a fine player.

He just isn't the Messiah that many here make him out to be.

When he grows up, he could even be as good as Kevin Bieksa.

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#56 dougtheslug
February 20 2013, 08:39PM
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DSF wrote:

1) They didn't deserve to win the game against Columbus. If Columbus had won that game, the Oilers would be in 14th, one point ahead of the 15th place Jackets.

2) Please see my post above. The Oilers are playing WORSE than last year by almost any metric.

3) Setting up a strawman argument like the Kessel trade is a waste of oxygen....especially since the Leafs are currently tied with the Bruins, 3 points out of top spot in the EC while the Oilers are desperately trying to stay ahead of Calgary and Columbus and Calgary could pass them if they win their game in hand tonight.

4) The buzzsaw WAS a mirage. Colorado was playing without 3 of its best players and, even then, it took an empty net goal to beat them by two.

Love the "setting up a straw man argument" line - from you, DSF, the king (maybe even the inventor) of the straw man. (Shattenkirk? You know he has but 1 goal in 16 games this year don't you?And this is his fourth year in the NHL? Why are we even talking about him. )Good grief. Writing off JS after he's played all of 15 games in NHL.

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#57 Butters
February 20 2013, 08:44PM
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Almost the entire Oilers core is under the age of 24. I am not certain it is fair to expect them to be world beaters just yet. I think it is fair to expect them to win on any given night against any given team however. And yes, that also means beating the Wild and the Stars, two of the primary Oiler killing teams.

Tommorrow night we shall see.

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#58 DSF
February 20 2013, 08:50PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

Love the "setting up a straw man argument" line - from you, DSF, the king (maybe even the inventor) of the straw man. (Shattenkirk? You know he has but 1 goal in 16 games this year don't you?And this is his fourth year in the NHL? Why are we even talking about him. )Good grief. Writing off JS after he's played all of 15 games in NHL.

Shattenkirk has 14 points, leads all NHL defensemen in scoring, and is +2

In his rookie season, he scored 9 goals and 43 points.

Keep reaching.

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#59 DonDon
February 20 2013, 09:11PM
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Jonathan, it is more like this:

Could they make the playoffs? That is a possibility. Could they end up in the bottom five for the fourth consecutive year? Absolutely they could. The fate of the 2013 Oilers is yet to be determined, and it’s very hard to look one way and see a playoff team, or easily look the other and see another wasted season.

Remember Strudwick: Patience, patience, patience? And keeping expectations low?

Sorry to say this, but I agree with Trent:

They won't win the Cup with this management, give them 5 years and the 1st pick every year, they still lose.

The future of the team will depend on Mr. Katz and his decision on keeping or firing the management of hockey operations and replacing them with competent people. Over to you, Darryl.

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#60 G Money
February 20 2013, 09:16PM
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DSF the troll at it again. Still can't for the life of me figure out why a Canucks/Wild/Blues fan insists on posting on this board. Maybe because the level of activity and hockey knowledge on those three fan boards put together doesn't match up. Maybe. I think troll is a more likely explanation.

ON members, please just recognize that every post of his is the same.

"[Cherry-picked statistic] as to why [the team of, member of] [Canucks, Blues, Wild] is better than [every player, every team characteristic] of the Oilers."

or

"[Cherry-picked reason] why last night's [Canucks, Wild, Blues, or any team for that matter] [loss to the Oilers was meaningless due to [injury, fluke goals, refereeing], win over the Oilers was a sure thing and indicative of future results and [injury, fluke, refereeing] is just an excuse]."

It's past amusing, and long since into eye-rollingly repetitive and meaningless, like a Taylor Swift song.

Suggestion - pretend you have an 'Ignore' button. Nothing is more fulfilling to trolls than taking their bait, nothing is more aggravating than being ignored.

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#61 Todd
February 20 2013, 09:27PM
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DSF wrote:

Shattenkirk has 14 points, leads all NHL defensemen in scoring, and is +2

In his rookie season, he scored 9 goals and 43 points.

Keep reaching.

End of the day its just so amusing how you feel the constant need to attack Schultz. Before the season, during his good times and now.

Nucks fans are funny. Sour about Schultz not picking them. Inferiority complex about their team even though they have been great for a long time.

I guess it would be pretty stressful to see the window closing quickly and to realize you still have nothing to show after 40 years of futility.

You can have Bieksa. Haha.... Ha. Good laugh from that one.

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#62 Wäx Män Riley
February 20 2013, 09:35PM
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DSF wrote:

Read this and get back to me:

http://www.boysonthebus.com/2013/02/19/game-notes-oilerskings-feb-19/

An excerpt:

"Just a horrible game on so many levels here. Sam Gagner put up a season worst -16 even strength Corsi, beating his own record of -14. He was on for 6 shots for, and 22 against. Think about that. Almost 4 times as many shots were taken against his net as he got off on theirs. And therein lies the contradiction of Samwise. The guy has the offensive talent level to complement great players and put up points, but his overall play this season at even strength has been extremely, unquestionably poor. Out of the 15 games played so far, he’s had one of the worst three Corsi rates on the Oilers 8 times. I’m not sure what’s wrong with the second line, but it’s not working, and not having a serviceable second line will kill this team’s chances of making the playoffs.

Something is wrong with Justin Schultz. He’s taken a nose dive the last few games, enough to be the 3rd worst skater against the kings on a per minute basis. I think the back injury is worse than the team is letting on. We better hope it’s a back injury."

The bottom line is Schultz has been dreadful for almost a month.

Ok, DSF.... this is really a new low, even for you. I usually like the banter when you are on ON, but c'mon man.... you're picking out random articles from random bloggers? I can do that too. Read an excerpt from this:

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/min130209.html

"MINNEAPOLIS, MN -- This just in, the Minnesota Wild will not go 82-0-0 48-0-0 this season. All sides have a right to be frustrated after three straight losses and scoring a total of three goals. Fans are frustrated because the owner promised results. The owner is frustrated because he dished out $196 million to two players. The GM is frustrated because the team isn't producing. The coach is frustrated because his players aren't winning. The players are frustrated because they aren't scoring. There's a long list of struggling forwards for the Wild right now. It started with Devin Setoguchi, but he's been better lately. Then, it was Matt Cullen, and then he scored. Then, it was Dany Heatley. Mikael Granlund got scratched. Now, it's Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Brodziak are a different story, because they're on the third line, but clearly Brodziak has had a rough start to 2013, as well.

Wow, the wild are terrible! Just horrible! This random dude says so.

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#63 Wäx Män Riley
February 20 2013, 09:39PM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

Ok, DSF.... this is really a new low, even for you. I usually like the banter when you are on ON, but c'mon man.... you're picking out random articles from random bloggers? I can do that too. Read an excerpt from this:

http://www.thefourthperiod.com/news/min130209.html

"MINNEAPOLIS, MN -- This just in, the Minnesota Wild will not go 82-0-0 48-0-0 this season. All sides have a right to be frustrated after three straight losses and scoring a total of three goals. Fans are frustrated because the owner promised results. The owner is frustrated because he dished out $196 million to two players. The GM is frustrated because the team isn't producing. The coach is frustrated because his players aren't winning. The players are frustrated because they aren't scoring. There's a long list of struggling forwards for the Wild right now. It started with Devin Setoguchi, but he's been better lately. Then, it was Matt Cullen, and then he scored. Then, it was Dany Heatley. Mikael Granlund got scratched. Now, it's Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Brodziak are a different story, because they're on the third line, but clearly Brodziak has had a rough start to 2013, as well.

Wow, the wild are terrible! Just horrible! This random dude says so.

What??? Granlund was scratched? but he is the second coming of Jesus! His being scratched obviously means he is no better than Darcy Hordichuk because he too was a scratch.

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#64 dougtheslug
February 20 2013, 09:45PM
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DSF wrote:

Shattenkirk has 14 points, leads all NHL defensemen in scoring, and is +2

In his rookie season, he scored 9 goals and 43 points.

Keep reaching.

Just in case you don't understand what you are saying:

"Straw Man" (definition):"A straw man or straw person is a type of argument based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position.To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by replacing it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the "straw man"), and to refute it, without ever having actually refuted the original position. This technique has been used throughout history in polemical debate, particularly in arguments about highly charged, emotional issues."

The original argument was my questioning your debatable statement that JS's play in the last few games was due to opposition teams "figuring out" JS, implying that now he is "figured out", he will not be as effective. My position is that you are reaching, and that other factors (AHL teams never "figured him out", a back injury(mentioned by your boysonthebus blogger), fatigue, small sample size) might be more likely explanations. You suddenly haul out of midair an argument that Shattenkirk (where did he come from?) is a better player than JS (who, apparently, can't hold Shattenkirk's jock???), and start strutting like your point("that oppostion teams have "figured out JS")is proven. WTF??? THAT, my friend, is a "Straw Man" if there ever was one.

By the way, JS's stats over 15 games, prorated over 82 games, come to 22 goals and 22 assists, 44 points for a rookie defenceman playing top pairing minutes on a not very good team. Sounds like Calder trophy numbers to me. And thats not even a reach.

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#65 DSF
February 20 2013, 10:03PM
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By the way.

Sheldon Souray - 4G 4A 8P +13

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5.

Yipee!

Thats' progress.

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#66 Light, Sweet, Crude
February 20 2013, 10:07PM
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@Rama Lama

Haha! Good show.

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#67 dougtheslug
February 20 2013, 10:08PM
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DSF wrote:

By the way.

Sheldon Souray - 4G 4A 8P +13

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5.

Yipee!

Thats' progress.

Another Straw Man? What has that got to do with JS???All I can say is "good for Sheldon". But how does that reflect on JS's future career?

God, I must be bored, spending my evening arguing with DSF. Surely there is a drawer of odd socks in my house that I can sort.

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#68 Wäx Män Riley
February 20 2013, 11:35PM
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DSF wrote:

By the way.

Sheldon Souray - 4G 4A 8P +13

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5.

Yipee!

Thats' progress.

lol

Sheldon Souray - 729 NHL games played

Justin Schultz - 15 NHL games played

I sure hope Big Sexy has a better +/-. The offense is looking pretty good though. Schultz is on pace to score 380 pts in the next 714 games for a total of 388 pts.

Almost 100 pts more in his career than Souray.

See..... proves JS is better.

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#69 Wäx Män Riley
February 20 2013, 11:37PM
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DSF wrote:

By the way.

Sheldon Souray - 4G 4A 8P +13

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5.

Yipee!

Thats' progress.

ALSO....

Ryan Suter - 15gp 0G 8A 8P -5

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5

sooooo..... JS is just as good and is even a better goal scorer than Suter.

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#70 GVBlackhawk
February 20 2013, 11:56PM
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DSF wrote:

Normally I don't draw many conclusions until the 20 game mark but since this is a shortened season let's take a rational look.

Points after 15 games:

2011/12: 20

2013: 15

Being 5 points in arrears to the team that finished 29th is not a good sign.

GF/G

2011/12: 2.52

2013: 2.33

The Oilers are scoring at a lower rate than they did last season.

GA/G

2011/12: 2.83

2013: 2.67

One bright spot is that goals against are down marginally.

GF/GA DIFF

2011/12: -.31

2013: -.34

THe goal differential is actually worse than the team that finished -27 last season.

SF/G

2011/12: 26.7

2013: 28.7

SA/G

2011/12: 30.7

2013: 33.6

Shot Diff/G

2011/12 -4.0

2013 -4.9

Shots are up slightly but they are giving up even more resulting in an even worse differential.

PP

2011/12: 20.6

2013: 23.9

The PP is somewhat better but it should be noted that the opposition has figured out the Oilers PP and is denying them zone entry and Schultz point shots.

Important to note that in 8 games in February, the Oilers PP has scored 6 times on 40 chances.

That is 15% which would rank them in the lower third of the league in PP efficiency.

Also worth noting is that Justin Schultz appears to have also been figured out by the opposition.

In 7 games in January, he scored 5 points and was +2

in 8 games in February he has scored 3 points and is -7

And he has ONE ES assist in 15 games...no goals.

Better hope for a couple of wins in the next two games or this could get ugly real fast.

DSF you are the king of small sample sizes -- we've been over this before.

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#71 GVBlackhawk
February 21 2013, 12:00AM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

ALSO....

Ryan Suter - 15gp 0G 8A 8P -5

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5

sooooo..... JS is just as good and is even a better goal scorer than Suter.

DSF has already proven that Suter is better than everyone. He used a six game sample from 2007 to prove it.

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#72 geoilersgist
February 21 2013, 12:32AM
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Wäx Män Riley wrote:

ALSO....

Ryan Suter - 15gp 0G 8A 8P -5

Justin Schultz - 4 G 4A 8P -5

sooooo..... JS is just as good and is even a better goal scorer than Suter.

I would argue he is even better than Shea Weber already! 3-4-7 +2 in 17 games. Man he is a bust not worth that salary at all.

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#73 Walter Sobchak
February 21 2013, 04:09AM
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Mikey wrote:

Your a flip flopper. Since you have now come to the conclusion this is a good year to get another pick, then why was it a bad year for a new system?

Flip flop? Nope.

I have maintained the Oiler will pick around 6-9, that has nothing to do with coaching, that was made before-the season started, so no flip flop.

As for the new system, I argued that it only makes it harder in a shorten season for the players to grasp the concepts, big difference Mike! do I want the Oilers to make the playoffs, yes I do!

As for where they finish, well.....I stand by it.

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#74 Robin Brownlee
February 21 2013, 07:45AM
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This DSF bit is truly pathetic. It's like watching a bunch of junkies looking for a fix. The users and the enabler.

Kick the habit. Stop buying his dope. He'll find another street corner.

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#75 Dennis
February 21 2013, 08:20AM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

This DSF bit is truly pathetic. It's like watching a bunch of junkies looking for a fix. The users and the enabler.

Kick the habit. Stop buying his dope. He'll find another street corner.

Brownlee thank you for being the voice of reason. Good lord these blogs are getting hard to read. People keep allowing on person to clog them up.

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#76 remlap
February 21 2013, 09:56AM
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Dennis wrote:

Brownlee thank you for being the voice of reason. Good lord these blogs are getting hard to read. People keep allowing on person to clog them up.

Agree with both of you. Why do people on here even engage with him?

We should start up a "No DSF March" on here for next month. Just pretend his comments are invisible. I'd bet something significant that he goes away.

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#77 Spydyr
February 21 2013, 10:26AM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

This DSF bit is truly pathetic. It's like watching a bunch of junkies looking for a fix. The users and the enabler.

Kick the habit. Stop buying his dope. He'll find another street corner.

About a minute before your comment I was about to say exactly what you said. Just not as eloquently.

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#78 Word
February 21 2013, 01:35PM
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I now only read Oilersnation articles (and not the comments section) 'cause I can't handle the "DSF Show" anymore. I made the mistake of reading the comments today and I remember why I stopped...

If you compare Brownlee, Gregor, Lowetide or Willis articles to musical performances, DSF is the equivalent of a guy in the back row mouth-breathing through a harmonica. You're ruining the show dude, and we're not here for you.

I've seen your "I like to get a rise out of people" brand before. It's neither funny nor intellectually stimulating - it's a coping mechanism. I'm not angry, I just feel sorry for you.

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#79 pelhem grenville
February 21 2013, 03:34PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

This DSF bit is truly pathetic. It's like watching a bunch of junkies looking for a fix. The users and the enabler.

Kick the habit. Stop buying his dope. He'll find another street corner.

...Mister B...you have the power to block him from entering the ON site no?

...do it

...within days there will be an internet riot to get him back here and out of exile

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#80 Wäx Män Riley
February 21 2013, 05:13PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

This DSF bit is truly pathetic. It's like watching a bunch of junkies looking for a fix. The users and the enabler.

Kick the habit. Stop buying his dope. He'll find another street corner.

It's like tragic comedy though. Any time DSF comments, it incites at least 70 comments per thread.

I'm ok with it. If I don't feel like tossing him a bone under his bridge, I skip on by.

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