GDB 18.0: SLAY THE DRAGON
Jason Gregor
February 25 2013 01:06PM
If you focus on statistical categories heading into tonight's tilt v. the red-hot Chicago Blackhawks it doesn't look good for the Oilers. The Hawks are 15-0-3, they have ice girls, a sold out building and right now they win for fun.
Can the Oilers pull off a major upset?
Logic tells you it is highly unlikely that the Oilers can skate into Chicago and leave with two points.
The Hawks have outscored their opponents 56-32 (I don't include SO goals).
The majority of the game is played five-on-five and the Hawks have 38 GF and 24 GA, meanwhile the Oilers ES scoring woes continue with a league-worst 16 goals, but at least they've only allowed 30 five-on-five. The Hawks are +14 in ES scoring while the Oilers are -14. Ouch.
The Oilers have the 4th most PP goals, 18 on 76 opportunities, but the Hawks PK is 2nd best in the league having allowed only 7 goals on 67 chances.
LINE UP
Smyth-Nugent-Hopkins-Eberle
Paajarvi-Gagner-Hemsky
Eager-Belanger-Jones
Yakupov-Vande Velde-Petrell
Teemu Hartikainen has been put on the IR with a shoulder injury and Lennart Petrell has been activated. Smyth has four points in his last four games and he's played much better since being benched. With Taylor Hall sitting out the final game of his two-game suspension it makes sense to put Smyth on the top line. The Oilers need to find a mix that will get them at least two ES scoring lines.
I suspect Paajarvi needs a great game to stay in the top-six past tonight, and lately he's been either highly noticeable or completely invisible. He needs to find some consistency in his game.
Yakupov on the 4th line is a bit of a head scratcher, but Krueger had to mix up his 2nd line. They weren't producing, and they were giving way more scoring chances than they were producing. There is no point putting Yakupov with Belanger, because Belanger has zero offensive confidence right now.
When Hall returns, I wonder if Krueger will mix up his six skilled forwards amongst three lines. The issue is that until Horcoff returns it means two of his skilled guys will have to play with Belanger. Belanger has shown he's a solid 4th line centre, who can kill penalties, but his offensive instincts seemingly have dried up.
I'd look seriously at a Hall-Horcoff-Yakupov combination along with 94-93-14 and 28-89-83. I'm not sure any need to be labeled the 1st, 2nd or 3rd lines, but when the captain returns I'd look at that. You could switch 94 and 28 as well, since Smyth and Hemsky have always played well together.
Smid-Petry
N.Schultz-J.Schultz
Fistric-Potter
Interesting how Theo Peckham can't get back in the lineup, despite playing pretty well against Minnesota. Maybe it is as simple as Krueger wanting to stick with the lineup that beat Phoenix. I know Struds is a huge believer in keeping the same lineup after a win. I still don't see what the coaches see in Corey Potter, but they like him.
Khabibulin
Khabibulin has played well in every game this year; however, does Devan Dubnyk deserve to sit out an entire week? It is a fine balancing act for Krueger. He wants to win, but he also needs to find out what he has moving forward. The Oilers can't afford to waste another year chasing the playoffs without finding out if Dubnyk is their goalie of the future.
QUICK HITS
- The Oilers lead the NHL with the most wins when trailing heading into the 3rd period. The Oilers are 4-3-2 when trailing after 40 minutes. That's the good news. The bad news is the Blackhaws are 12-0-1 when leading after 40 minutes.
- The Hawks love fast starts. They've outscored the opposition 41-17 during the first two periods. The Oilers need a good start.
- Ray Emery starts for the Blackhawks. He is 7-0 with a 2.10 GAA and a sparkling .933 SV%. Including tonight he's started 5 of the last 6 games for the Hawks. Corey Crawford shutout the Blue Jackets 1-0 last night, but he'll get the night off.
- Patrick Kane is the only Blackhawk in the top-38 scorers in the NHL. Kane has 23 points in 18 games. Jonathon Toews is tied for 40th with 15 points. The Hawks have 11 players with at least 7 points. They win with balanced scoring.
- “I’ve started to realize that getting hit and taking big body checks doesn’t mean you are tough or playing well, it just means you are being a little stupid and reckless. You can still go to the hard areas, and you can still get a lot of pucks and make a lot of plays without taking a big hit." Taylor Hall told me this and much more in an article about how he's changed his game. You can read the rest here.
- Ryan Whitney will sit out for the 6th time in 18 games. It looks like his time with the Oilers is coming to an end. The debate is whether they can increase his trade value by playing him, or does sitting him keep his value constant. Moving him for a 3rd or 2nd round pick doesn't help them now. I know Whitney hasn't played great this year, but moving him for a pick means they definitely lose the trade now. The pick might, a big might, pan out in four years to salvage a deal, or better yet, they move that pick to another team and acquire a proven NHL player.
- The new line combinations v. Phoenix didn't result in anymore ES goals, but they did generate more chances. It is obvious the Oilers need to mix in some grease and grit with their skilled guys.
- The PP has started to show some life again with four goals in their last 13 chances. Krueger had Smyth and Hartikainen both in front of the net on one unit and it led to the tying goal. The Oilers need more ugly play and less pretty plays on the PP and ES if they hope to start scoring more.
- Good news is that tickets for the Nation 5th Birthday party are going well, the bad news is if you are a procrastinator there are only 50 tickets left. $20 gets you the snazzy limited edition 5th Birthday T-Shirt, a $25 Oodle Noodle GC, a $20 Pint GC, and Labatt swag. We all know you plan on watching Friday's game, so you might as well do it at the Pint Off Whyte, help raise some money for charity and get a sweet Nation T-shirt. click here to buy yours.
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Hawks barely beat the lowly Blue Jackets yesterday, so you wonder if their streak is close to ending. The Hawks might be a bit fatigued, and could take the Oilers lightly, but I still don't see the upset. Hawks win 3-2.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Eberle scores. He has 15 points in 8 career games v. the Hawks including 5 goals.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Early in the first period Ryan Nugent-Hopkins skates into the Hawks zone, but heinexplicably stops at their blueline. He then takes two hard scrapes with his blade on the bluelinem and then slams his stick into the gap his blade just made. He then dumps the puck in and heads to the bench. After the game he was asked what he was doing on the play. "Last year the blueline cheap-shotted me. It tripped me which sending me flying into the boards and it that cost me the Calder trophy and a huge salary bonus. I can stand up for myself, and I wanted the rest of the league to know they can't cheapshot me."
I liked it when you put more effort into your trolling.
For the record - THOSE are Ice Girls!
Damn you Horcoff!
I still stand by my trade suggestion:
Hemsky + something for Dustin Brown.
Also, why would we trade for Hamilton when we're getting Seth Jones? ;)
Octane girls are cute but those ice girls in Chicago....Man that's hot! I say if the Oil got ice girls like that we would be undefeated in regulation too!
Yes, Corsi shows everything you need to determine who is playing well. Just like when it said Ryan Jones sucked. It was completely accurate. Thanks.
What are you talking about?
Gene: "How did you like your PP goal?"
Yak: "2-1 thats it."
GOLD.
Better than yours or mine would be in Russian, Comrade!
I liked it.
"What do you have to say about your goal, Nail?"
" 2 to 1"
Exactly Nail........ Exactly.
Can't really blame him, its obvious Chicago is the better team tonight.
Embarrassing. 3 Oilers standing there with their thumbs up their bums, watching hossa whack away at the rebound.
Lucky to get a point they looked flatter than piss on a platter.Who ever came up with the saying that Hall is the straw that stirs the drink nailed it.
@DSF
Firrg llookiiie ssstshejdi nmmwaaa po re stickkkdi doo?
Agfa poywqaiu tharen bukchy bum bum!
This team needs more than Hall. Was horrifying to watch Chicago own every aspect of the game. The Oilers are softer than marshmallows. Carcillo ran around untouched all night and no response from the Oil. They won't shoot, won't dump, can't get out of their own zone, can't win a faceoff, can't win a puck battle on the boards and they all stood there watching as Hossa had 3 whacks at it in OT. Khabby saved them a point tonight but it was sickening to watch the rest of the team. I am done! same crap every year. Until management shows they want to do something to win other than tank for draft pics, after 35 years of being a fan, I have finally had enough!
I am getting my Edmonton Islanders jersey tomorrow. It will read Tambelowe on the back!
He looks for a new career with another team.
@SmyttyForMayor
While Dougie Hamilton is the next coming of Christ, that is a lot to pay for a rookie.
Whitney, +2-3 propects/picks would be the better option. Then Hemsky to Philly instead of Eberle.
I think its safe to assume the Oilers are looking to jumble up the lines a little to get the Offense going. There needs to be a few fresh looks to how our lines are composed.
I don't think Nail on the 4th line is about him being punished. I think, atleast partially, he's just the victim of having to mix up the top 2 lines by inserting some net front presence.
Plus I dont think we should get too excited about what the lines are in practice. Ralph has shown that he'll change up lines several times mid game to adjust to the tempo of the game. The lines listed in this post could see changes before the end of the 1st period.
All great offensive players make bone headed plays..except if their names are Crosby, Yakupov should be used as Hall's replacement on the top line till Hall gets back.. What's Krueger trying to do, turn Yak into a third/fourth line checker?
Give the guy a chance to succeed, Hall, RNH, Eberle were all given lots of chances to succeed in their rookie years despite countless mistakes, why treat Yakupov so differently?
The oilers have depth now where they didn't back then. Show me other 18-20yr old rookies, who are on good teams, that play on the top line. Most are on the 3rd.
You spelt "Sucks" wrong in your name.
Smyth is smarter than Whitney................don't ever go over the coaches head.
Smyth is smart and can adapt, Whitney....not so much.
The benching worked.
The better team won tonight. That tying goal in the 3rd was a real killer. Khabby was cheating off his post all night but that time it actually cost him.
We need to cut out the fancy, cute stuff and get the puck in deep sometimes. We played hard but we need to start playing smarter. We played with fire and eventually got burned. Overall, a point in this one is not a terrible start to the road trip but we head to Dallas next and we all know how that usually goes for us.
They are getting the puck in deep, but only 1 or 2 forwards are getting after it most of the time, they're cheating back on defense.
Need more of a commitment overall as a team to dump and reacquire when the passing game gets cut off.
I was at the game tonight. Caught the last two periods in the 100 levels with scalper tickets and sat next to Rozsival's family. The Oil were lucky to steal a point. The hawks were playing 3 games in 4 days, but the Oil didn't have enough jump and fight to compete even in those circumstances. Even though I had many occasions to throw my hands in the air in frustration, I was still grinning like a kid in that very special arena!
How did we get a point tonight? Chicago really outplayed us all night. Hopefully Oilers play better for the rest of the roadtrip.
False. Sharp beat Petry off the wall and took the puck across the crease. Petry then went behind the net, by himself, and watched Sharp and Hossa out battle Smid who was left hung out to dry by himself. Bad, bad play by Petry and I'm sure he'd be the first to admit it.
We got outplayed and deserved to lose. But we were 2 inches away from winning on Yak's 2nd PP attempt. So close. Not to mention Ebs falling over right as J Schultz feeds him the cross slot pass. Woops.
I'll take the one point. 10/18 pts on this trip would be good enough to stay in the hunt. Tonight's point gives us a chance to do exactly that.
I feel your pain. After watching tonight's game, I felt like burying my head in my hands and weeping. This team is so bad, it was like watching Russia play Latvia tonight. Such a sickening feeling at the start of the third period, like being tied to a post, blindfolded, offered a final cigarette, and then waiting for the inevitable bullet. Not a chance on gods green earth they were going to extend the lead - I don't even know if it crossed their collective mind that such a thing was even possible. And the way all four Oilers deftly skated out of Hossa's way, allowing him three (Three!!!) uninterrupted whacks at the puck would have made me think the fix was in, except I know this is the Oilers, and they really are that bad.
The good news is they already have one more point than I expected them to earn on this road trip. So we got that going for us.
I moved away from Edmonton in 1986 and now live 11 time zones away. I still see every game even though it means setting the alarm for 5 am. You tell me, is it curable?
I wasn't exaggerating. And don't call me Shirley.
When 4 on 4, Gagner can't bail on the point as quickly as he would 5 on 5. This was on Smid. He got sucked away from the front of the net when Petry was already out of position ... Let them try and score from behind the goal line.
2 greasy crease goals by the Hawks. I hope our guys took some notes.
4x4 its man on man coverage. It is not Gagners job to support low in this situation.
This was absolutely Petry's fault. He got burned by Sharpe, and then made it worse by circling the net. Should have stopped and stayed in front of the net and maybe would have prevented the goal. Blamming Gagner for that is asinine. Petry has been terrible in his own end this year. Kruger has another scratch option on D IMO.
I guess I should have finished reading the other comments, as others agree that it wasn't Gagner fault. More blame lies on Petry and Smid.
While the Oilers didn't play good at all, they should have won this game.
Did Khabby have to make any really good saves? He let two soft ones in. And if Yak hit the net on that power play it would have been different.
Lets give them their FIST lose
Best article in a long time. Round of applause on the suggested line-ups
“I’ve started to realize that getting hit and taking big body checks doesn’t mean you are tough or playing well, it just means you are being a little stupid and reckless. You can still go to the hard areas, and you can still get a lot of pucks and make a lot of plays without taking a big hit." Taylor Hall
Yay! I was mentally prepared for a career full of injury and heartbreak from Hall based on his (fun to watch but) reckless style of play.
I'm feeling pretty good about the Oiler's chances of ending the Chicago point streak.
If it were any other team, i might be shaking in my booties, but i'm comfortable with this match up.
GDP: Oiler's win 4-3 in regulation
OGDP: Nuge will continue to flub shots to the net. He goes into this game with 7 points, he'll leave this game with 7 points.
NSOGDP: BELANGER scores a goal tonight! As seen in warmup on Oil Change last night, Belanger takes Horcs advice and uses a snazzy tight angle roofer that he's been working on, to score a goal tonight. The immediate effects of scoring the goal are seen as all his gray hair suddenly goes away.
#GOILERS
Man I am looking forward to seeing Paajarvi get some playing time in the top 6 for once. If the current top 6 isn't scoring anyways it doesn't hurt to try something different and see what happens. I like his size and I like his defensive play, perhaps will a little more confidence he might start taking the puck hard to the net like we know he is capable of.
Lets go Oil !
Ralph mentioned before the start of the season he would go with pairs in his forwards.
It has not happened. Might be time to look at that. Break up the scoring a bit , both ways. Some more balance in the forward lines. Perhaps when Horcoff gets back.
"The Oilers can't afford to waste another year chasing the playoffs without finding out if Dubnyk is their goalie of the future."
Perhaps they have.Seems like he lets in a soft goal every second game.Goalies that do that don't win in the playoffs.I don't care if he has a high save percentage.Weak goals change momentum and cost games.
Jason,
Does management need to prove the injury? TH's shoulder was hurt a few games ago and played on Saturday, quite well actually. This kind of seems like a sneaky way to avoid sending someone down.
Thanks, Ron
@The 'Real' Ron Burgundy
Hard to prove if a guy is hurt or not. The team has to pay him, so they actually lose money by not sending him down.
Early indication was Kreuger would go with RNH-Eberle and Hemsky-Gagner. The rest of the lineup would change as the game went on depending how things were going. Yak plays well I suspect he'll find himself on the 1st line at the end of the night. He plays poorly we'll, he'll get benched again.
Hypothetically, what does happen if a player comes out and says he was never hurt but put on the IR?
Oilers are due for a WTF game tonight. 4-1 Oilers, a good start to what will be a difficult roadtrip.
Love to see one more premium selection this summer added to the fold. It won't be so bad if the Oilers can lose the lions share to teams they measure up better against, and beat someone they're not supposed to once in a while.
WTF win tonight boys......2 goals for Yakupov tonight in the Blackhawks first regulation loss.
Kind of like inverse Sheldon Souray... same result. ;)
Exactly
I still don't see what the coaches see in Corey Potter, but they like him.
The math says that among Dmen, has the 6th best Rel Corsi (-3.0) while facing the 5th toughest competition with the 8th best teammates.
For you MSM guys, that means he is the best option for the 3rd pairing.
So heres an idea for a trade to make this team better...or rather two or three trades. 1st:Hemsky+Whitney+2014 1st rounder to Boston for Dougie Hamilton. 2nd:Eberle to Philly for Simmonds. Then some combination of prospects+picks to Ottawa for Ben Bishop. This then makes the lineups: Hall-RNH-Simmonds, Hartikainen-Gagner-Yakupov, Jones-Horcoff-Paajarvi, Smyth-Belanger-Eager, Schultz-Schultz, Hamilton-Smid, Petry-Potter/Fistric, Dubnyk, Bishop. This decreases cap spending, freeing up room for other signings, mainly RNH Yakupov and Schultz. I also adds that player with size, grit and a scoring touch to the top 6 that we so desperately need. Any thoughts, or am I completely out to lunch?
@SmyttyForMayor
Doug Hamilton is the second coming of christ over there in boston from what i hear on the radio. You're not pulling him away for anything.