WARRIOR SHAWN

Lowetide
February 03 2013 10:59AM

The center position will be front and cen, well front page if Shawn Horcoff is out for any length of time. The Nuge (how in hell did he miss that gaping net?) and Sam Gagner (pretty good season so far for a guy no one thinks is a 2line C) are taking care of the offensive business, but with Horcoff out who helps Eric Belanger (if he can walk today) with the heavy lifting?

All graphs and stats below are courtesy Gabriel Desjardins and his dynamic behind the net site. Amazing.

THE ZONE STARTS

  1. Anton Lander 60% offensive zone start
  2. RNH 53.7% "       "       "
  3. Sam Gagner 52.5% "   "    "
  4. Shawn Horcoff 39.1% "   "   "
  5. Eric Belanger 36.1% "    "      "

Ralph Krueger is giving the tough starts at center to Eric Belanger and Shawn Horcoff, and the offensive zone start push to RNH and Sam Gagner. I think we can place this under "duh" strategy, as the Oilers are set up perfectly to give the younger players the push and the older men the hard starts from scrimmage. I don't know why Petrell shows up here but suspect Shawn Horcov has something to do with it.

If Horcoff and or Belanger are gone for any length of time, the Oilers need to be bringing in veteran players. Gagner and the Nuge may one day do the heavy lifting, but this team is set up for those two to score touchdowns. Steve Tambellini might look to Jason Arnott or to the trades that may be available, but there is no "in house" replacement for Horcoff or Belanger.

5X5 SCORING

  1. Sam Gagner 2.50/60
  2. RNH 0.98/60

The Oilers haven't gotten much 5x5 scoring from their 3rd and 4th lines, so Horcoff and Belanger having zero's in this category shouldn't come as a surprise. It does tell us that the guy replacing Horcoff and or Belanger won't have to bring a lot of offense to the parade--if he does, that's a bonus. What he really needs to be though, is low event in his own end.

CORSI REL

Corisl Rel (this is taken from Dudes on Hockey) is "A way to compare players that neutralizes team effects, Corsi Rel is a player’s Corsi when they are on the ice versus when they are off.  If a player has a Corsi/60 of 5.0 (meaning the team directs 5 more shots towards the opposing net than they surrender when the player is on the ice) but a Corsi/60 of 6.0 when the player is sitting on the bench, the player’s Corsi Rel is -1.0.  Corsi Rel is always per 60 minutes of ice time."

  1. RNH 25.4
  2. Shawn Horcoff -0.5
  3. Anton Lander -3.5
  4. Sam Gagner -7.8
  5. Eric Belanger -21.7

Gagner's Corsi Rel is heading in a good direction after a tough start and of course that line has a rookie so there's going to be some struggles this season. Nuge is on the Hall line and that's going to push the river (although Nuge had a tough time by my eye yesterday), and Horcoff is just fine. Belanger on the fourth has been a struggle but again he's been with young players often, and his kids weren't taken #1 overall.

QUAL COMP

It is early for quality of competition numbers, but there is some insight they can offer about how RK is running his bench. Toughest to easiest:

  1. Anton Lander .595
  2. Shawn Horcoff .382
  3. Eric Belanger .174
  4. RNH .152
  5. Sam Gagner -.168

Lander's number is from just a couple of games, and the rest of the numbers are clustered together. I think this tells us that Krueger's priorities lie away from line matching at this point in the season. He's trying to get his offensive players into offensive situations and to get them on the ice as often as possible, and one of the results is a fairly even qual comp number for the four main centermen.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

If Horcoff is injured, the Oilers are going to need a quality veteran to replace him if they plan on getting anywhere this season. They might be able to use Anton Lander--a pretty fair penalty-killer already--in the Belanger role and elevate Belanger to Horcoff's job in the short term, but if they're serious about the second season the Oilers will need to make a move.

Horcoff is not on the IR, and knowing his history he'll drag his ass onto the ice tomorrow night against the Canucks.

Just in time for the Rexall crowd to shower him with boos.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#101 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 10:54AM
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DSF wrote:

Finishing .500 and just out of the playoffs is NOT a successful year.

It's just a tragic indication of how low the fan expectations for the team have become.

Kevin Lowe has been piloting the ship for 12 years now and the Oilers have made the playoffs exactly 3 times.

Making the playoffs in the NHL is not all that difficult since nearly 2/3rds of the teams make it every season.

Missing out 7 years in a row would be a firing offense for every other team in the league.

Agree with the first sentence. As for the second sentence, 3 out 4 Oilers fans are prefer sipping their coolaid from the Stanley Cup.

Remind me again how many Stanley Cups the Minnesota Wild have won in their less than illustrious history?

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#102 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 10:57AM
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Rob... wrote:

Love Horcoff or Hate Him, it doesn't matter. Doan needs to be taken out the next time the Oilers play the Coyotes.

Exactly. Time for Kruger to grow a pair and time for Hordichuk to earn his 1:17 minutes of ice time.

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#103 Chet134
February 04 2013, 11:09AM
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I think all oiler fans want to sip the cool aid from the cup but look at the team going into the season: A goalie that has never played a full season as a starter A defense that wasn't very good last year, u bring a stud defenseman that will need time to develop and another guy in Whitney that's had foot problems before he came to Edmonton. Two small centermans that can't win a face off so ur relying more on an aging horkoff to stay healthy, no crashers, bangers or size especially in our top six. Zero scoring from the third or fourth lines and they haven't even been close. I hate losing just as much as everyone else but this team needs a lot money pieces and time to grow. It takes time

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#104 The Soup Fascist
February 04 2013, 11:21AM
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DSF wrote:

Finishing .500 and just out of the playoffs is NOT a successful year.

It's just a tragic indication of how low the fan expectations for the team have become.

Kevin Lowe has been piloting the ship for 12 years now and the Oilers have made the playoffs exactly 3 times.

Making the playoffs in the NHL is not all that difficult since nearly 2/3rds of the teams make it every season.

Missing out 7 years in a row would be a firing offense for every other team in the league.

I agree that we need to hold this group to a higher level and stop making excuses every year. And yes, 3 years out of 12 is woeful, to say the least.

But to say 16 / 30 teams is "nearly 2/3 rds" is just wrong - percentage is much closer to 50/50 (53/47). Your point in this case is valid but PLEASE stop misrepresenting data to make your case. You are better than that.

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#105 book¡e
February 04 2013, 11:22AM
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@DSF

Making the playoffs in the NHL is not all that difficult since nearly 2/3rds of the teams make it every season.

53.33% of NHL teams make the playoffs in any one season.

So, about half of NHL teams make the playoffs, but more than half of DSF's comments are asinine and only meant to troll others into a response. I am sure DSF would agree with this. Please prop him when he does

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#106 2004Z06
February 04 2013, 11:25AM
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Oh Lama....Your bitterness knows no bounds. Several things you are failing to acknowledge about Belanger. First of all....bellanger has been one of the NHL's most consistent point and faceoff performers for a decade. While he has not put up the points with the Oilers as of yet (penalty killing most of the night), he has delivered in the dot. I firmly believe that his faceoff prowess was a significant reason why our penalty kill and powerplay improved last year and this. Puck possession! Secondly he is very good on the penalty kill. Thirdly....He has done a lot for helping our kids get better in the dot. He is a specialist and is certainly a valid NHL player.

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#107 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 11:36AM
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Chet134 wrote:

I think all oiler fans want to sip the cool aid from the cup but look at the team going into the season: A goalie that has never played a full season as a starter A defense that wasn't very good last year, u bring a stud defenseman that will need time to develop and another guy in Whitney that's had foot problems before he came to Edmonton. Two small centermans that can't win a face off so ur relying more on an aging horkoff to stay healthy, no crashers, bangers or size especially in our top six. Zero scoring from the third or fourth lines and they haven't even been close. I hate losing just as much as everyone else but this team needs a lot money pieces and time to grow. It takes time

We agree on most of that....especially the time part. ( the drinking from the CUP thing was more directed to DSF).

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#108 DSF
February 04 2013, 11:37AM
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Old Retired Guy wrote:

Exactly. Time for Kruger to grow a pair and time for Hordichuk to earn his 1:17 minutes of ice time.

Doan would beat the crap out of Hordichuk.

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#109 DSF
February 04 2013, 11:40AM
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Old Retired Guy wrote:

I think your both right in parts of what you say.

Missing the playoffs is never considered a successful year. TRUE

Going from 29th place to making the playoffs the following year is highly improbable. TRUE

Because reaching a goal is highly improbable, failure to reach it is still failure.

Florida went from last in the EC to winning their division in one offseason.

While it is improbable...it is no impossible.

However, it does require and astute GM.

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#110 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 11:46AM
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book¡e wrote:
Making the playoffs in the NHL is not all that difficult since nearly 2/3rds of the teams make it every season.

53.33% of NHL teams make the playoffs in any one season.

So, about half of NHL teams make the playoffs, but more than half of DSF's comments are asinine and only meant to troll others into a response. I am sure DSF would agree with this. Please prop him when he does

If you want to hold DSF accountable to the facts...try this fact on for size.

The Minnesota Wild have been in the league for 45 YEARS. In that time they have won ZERO Stanley Cups. Lets see, thats Zero divided by 45 equals, Zero, times 100 = wait a minute, let me grab my calculator .......................................................................................OK.......OH YEAH..............ZERO!

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#111 Chet134
February 04 2013, 11:51AM
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I think deep down inside that management knew the stars who have to align to make the playoffs and it doesn't make it right. I think management is the weakest area in the club including Lowe. However look at how Tambo has run the oilers the last four years. He hasn't made a tough decision and relied on the draft. Expect another year of evaluation of players and hopefully fix some areas with a couple quality UFAs in July. That's Tambo

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#112 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 11:54AM
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DSF wrote:

Because reaching a goal is highly improbable, failure to reach it is still failure.

Florida went from last in the EC to winning their division in one offseason.

While it is improbable...it is no impossible.

However, it does require and astute GM.

You mean an astute GM like the cupless Wild have had for the past 45 YEARS. The GM's who drafted legends like thier first ever first round pick in 1967. I mean who could ever forget the HUSH in the arena when then North Stars went to the podium to select......wait for it.............WAYNE CHEESEMAN !!!!

OH I loved old Wayne, and that signature move where he'd go into the corner and churn it out and then he'd curdle back from behind the net and go TOP Cheese!!! AHhhhhh the Glory Years!

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#113 DSF
February 04 2013, 11:55AM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

How's Florida doing now? I'd rather suck for 3-4 years and be successful for 8-10 than suck one year and be marginal the next and repeat that for the next decade.

Florida has been hit hard by injuries to start the season.

At one point they had 4 of their top 6 forwards out of the lineup at the same time.

Imagine how the Oilers record would look under the same circumstances.

When trying to compare the relative merits of the two teams you might want to bear in mind that Florida, not the Oilers, is considered to have the best prospect pool in the NHL.

With a smart GM like Tallon, they will be successful for a long time.

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#114 Shane
February 04 2013, 11:57AM
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Looks like Rama will be getting his wish now with Belanger out. Watch our PK and FO percentages drop

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#115 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 12:03PM
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DSF wrote:

Because reaching a goal is highly improbable, failure to reach it is still failure.

Florida went from last in the EC to winning their division in one offseason.

While it is improbable...it is no impossible.

However, it does require and astute GM.

You know what's highly improbable, but not impossible?

Not winning a single cup in 45 YEARS and still being in the league!

However it does require an astute owner to con that many Minnisotians.

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#116 DSF
February 04 2013, 12:04PM
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@Old Retired Guy

For an old guy, you sure don't know much about history.

The Wild have only existed since 1997.

Their predecessor, the current Dallas Stars have won seven division titles in Dallas, two President's Trophies as the top regular season team in the NHL, the Western Conference championship twice, and in 1998–99, the Stanley Cup.

Now what happens in Dallas doesn't mean much in Minnesota and Chuck Fletcher, the Wild GM, has only been on the job for 3 seasons.

I am sure if his 12 year record is as pitiful as Lowe's, he'll be sent packing,

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#117 DSF
February 04 2013, 12:05PM
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Old Retired Guy wrote:

You know what's highly improbable, but not impossible?

Not winning a single cup in 45 YEARS and still being in the league!

However it does require an astute owner to con that many Minnisotians.

Kevin Lowe is the VP in Charge of Remembering the 80's.

He doesn't need your help.

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#118 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 12:17PM
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DSF wrote:

For an old guy, you sure don't know much about history.

The Wild have only existed since 1997.

Their predecessor, the current Dallas Stars have won seven division titles in Dallas, two President's Trophies as the top regular season team in the NHL, the Western Conference championship twice, and in 1998–99, the Stanley Cup.

Now what happens in Dallas doesn't mean much in Minnesota and Chuck Fletcher, the Wild GM, has only been on the job for 3 seasons.

I am sure if his 12 year record is as pitiful as Lowe's, he'll be sent packing,

DSF....For a young Dufe....your denial of the present is embarassing. Your grasping at straws with your Kevin Bacon six degrees of seperation crap.....deflecting to the Dallas Stars is lame.....Tambellini used to be in the Canucks organization.....guess well take credit for any success they've had in the past few years.

So to get your point....your more proud of no cups in 15 years than no cups in 45 years ( cause you want to deny your history instead of celebrate it.....that's completely understandable).

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#119 Walter Sobchak
February 04 2013, 12:25PM
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Old Retired Guy wrote:

DSF....For a young Dufe....your denial of the present is embarassing. Your grasping at straws with your Kevin Bacon six degrees of seperation crap.....deflecting to the Dallas Stars is lame.....Tambellini used to be in the Canucks organization.....guess well take credit for any success they've had in the past few years.

So to get your point....your more proud of no cups in 15 years than no cups in 45 years ( cause you want to deny your history instead of celebrate it.....that's completely understandable).

Deflecting to the Dallas Stars after you brought up the Wild isn’t deflecting it's a fact!

DSF may get under people’s skin but he’s right about this,

The Minnesota North Stars became the Dallas Stars and something to do with San Jose as well.

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#120 DSF
February 04 2013, 12:27PM
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Old Retired Guy wrote:

DSF....For a young Dufe....your denial of the present is embarassing. Your grasping at straws with your Kevin Bacon six degrees of seperation crap.....deflecting to the Dallas Stars is lame.....Tambellini used to be in the Canucks organization.....guess well take credit for any success they've had in the past few years.

So to get your point....your more proud of no cups in 15 years than no cups in 45 years ( cause you want to deny your history instead of celebrate it.....that's completely understandable).

I'm not sure what "a young Dufe" is but I'd wager I'm older than you are.

As I recall it was you who went off like a 12 year old school boy in the women's washroom over the record of the Wild/Stars/Northstars when, in fact, it is virtually irrelevant to the current situation.

The bottom line is, Minny has an aggressive new GM who isn't content to let his team wallow in the ditch while the same "management team" that sewered the Oilers is still running the show.

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#121 OilClog
February 04 2013, 12:32PM
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Yes, Doan would be the crap out of Hordichuk, guy is a pylon. But you know who would take Doan out... Sam Gagner, the little engine that could.

Also.. This old man/DSF bickering back and forth is entertaining and easy to see who possibly proof reads..

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#122 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 12:38PM
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DSF wrote:

I'm not sure what "a young Dufe" is but I'd wager I'm older than you are.

As I recall it was you who went off like a 12 year old school boy in the women's washroom over the record of the Wild/Stars/Northstars when, in fact, it is virtually irrelevant to the current situation.

The bottom line is, Minny has an aggressive new GM who isn't content to let his team wallow in the ditch while the same "management team" that sewered the Oilers is still running the show.

Given your prediliction for 12 year old school boys.......I'd wager your gayer than Elton John.....but all that aside....

The bottom line is that Minnesota has won nothing (well they did one One Clarence Cambell bowl....wouldn't want you to have to present another history lesson)....in its enitire history......15 years.....45 years who cares.....So stop deflecting and acknowledge that fact...

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#123 Walter Sobchak
February 04 2013, 12:38PM
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I think some question’s need answered.

The pieces are here, so why are we not seeing any trades to improve the team we have here?

Two elite players, a new coach and an unproven goalie weren’t going to improve the team to a playoff team was it?

Was that management’s expectation?

Or Is Management and the fans expectations of this team unrealistic?

Like I said, I still think this team is just barley better than a lottery pick 6-9, which is too bad because we have such good talent that’s being wasted by management lack of action.

To make it worse DSF comments about injuries to our centers would be bad news, Horcoff down is bad, Belanger down is even worse.

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#124 Time Travelling Sean
February 04 2013, 12:39PM
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@DSF

We tried signing Hossa and trading for Heatley. If they didn't get Parise and Suter they would be in a ditch?

We had to suck to get high end talent here.

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#125 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 12:41PM
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OilClog wrote:

Yes, Doan would be the crap out of Hordichuk, guy is a pylon. But you know who would take Doan out... Sam Gagner, the little engine that could.

Also.. This old man/DSF bickering back and forth is entertaining and easy to see who possibly proof reads..

I too find it entertaining. Would be good if it were more realistic/serious though.

Naw.....screw it......entertaining is good.....

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#126 Time Travelling Sean
February 04 2013, 12:41PM
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@Walter Sobchak

As of right now we still have a winning record it's not like the sky is falling.

Odd there was a thread on Flames Nation about how the underlying numbers are encouraging while ours aren't yet we have the winning record and they don't.

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#127 DSF
February 04 2013, 12:51PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

We tried signing Hossa and trading for Heatley. If they didn't get Parise and Suter they would be in a ditch?

We had to suck to get high end talent here.

Remember when Kevin Lowe asked in an interview with Terry Jones "is it me?"

Yes Kevin it IS you.

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#128 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 12:54PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

As of right now we still have a winning record it's not like the sky is falling.

Odd there was a thread on Flames Nation about how the underlying numbers are encouraging while ours aren't yet we have the winning record and they don't.

Yeah....it is interesting to read there threads...in particular Kent Wilson?....he calls the Oilers crap....while coming up with the following positive about the Flames season..

In the article titled "Don’t Panic The positives of the Flames start"

He writes: "Overall, Calgary is 9th in the league in terms of fenwick close (a stat that corrects for score effects) witha ratio of 52.98. That's better rate than such notable teams as Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia, New York Rangers and San Jose."

I know the Penguins and the Sharks are really focused on Fenwick Close this year.....feeling its the key to thier success... :)

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#129 DSF
February 04 2013, 12:55PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

As of right now we still have a winning record it's not like the sky is falling.

Odd there was a thread on Flames Nation about how the underlying numbers are encouraging while ours aren't yet we have the winning record and they don't.

What that tells you is the Flames are better than their record (I've watched all their games and I agree) while the Oilers are not as good as their record (ditto).

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#130 Walter Sobchak
February 04 2013, 12:55PM
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Time Travelling Sean wrote:

As of right now we still have a winning record it's not like the sky is falling.

Odd there was a thread on Flames Nation about how the underlying numbers are encouraging while ours aren't yet we have the winning record and they don't.

Not yet

lets look at what is going on. The Oiler's troubles scoring a lot 5x5, a second line that's bleeding chances.

Being out shot badly every game and not scoring nearly enough.

A career average goalie playing over his head right now.

Injuries are starting, whats worse at the one postilion the Oiler's cant afford to have injuries at...see Anton Lander

The other teams in the WC starting to play up to there potential.

How much more improving can the Oiler's do with the present line up and young kids still making mistakes.

I'm thinking this is the calm before the storm

My guess is the Oiler's get spanked tonight, or they lose by one goal.

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#131 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 01:03PM
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DSF wrote:

Remember when Kevin Lowe asked in an interview with Terry Jones "is it me?"

Yes Kevin it IS you.

I remember an interview where Cliff Fletcher alluded to Glenn Sather, asking...."Could that have been me?"

NO Cliff.....that will NEVER be you!!

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#132 MAC962
February 04 2013, 01:08PM
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GDB PLEASE !! Tired of looking at Warrior Shawn. Makes me want to hurl.

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#133 DSF
February 04 2013, 01:19PM
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@MAC962

Im guessing 'reversion to the mean" doesn't register with you.

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#134 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 01:37PM
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DSF wrote:

Im guessing 'reversion to the mean" doesn't register with you.

Sure it does.

Minnesota has zero Stanley cups in 45 YEARS.

If we consider reversion to the mean...they should win exactly ZERO Stanely Cups in the next 45 YEARS.......of course its not an exact calculation.....they could trade for Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle when they are in there mid 40's and thereby increase there chances of reverting to the Oilers mean.....which is higher than ZERO. It worked for the NYR....It could work for you.

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#135 Old Retired Guy
February 04 2013, 01:58PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

Not yet

lets look at what is going on. The Oiler's troubles scoring a lot 5x5, a second line that's bleeding chances.

Being out shot badly every game and not scoring nearly enough.

A career average goalie playing over his head right now.

Injuries are starting, whats worse at the one postilion the Oiler's cant afford to have injuries at...see Anton Lander

The other teams in the WC starting to play up to there potential.

How much more improving can the Oiler's do with the present line up and young kids still making mistakes.

I'm thinking this is the calm before the storm

My guess is the Oiler's get spanked tonight, or they lose by one goal.

Ahhh....Wes.....the eternal optimist.......

I'll counter the karma your putting out there with a prediction that the Oilers spank the Canucks or at least beat them by one goal!

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#136 Oiler Al
February 04 2013, 03:10PM
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DSF and OLD RETIRED GUY, remind me of two old farts sitting in a hot tub, surrounded by glorious bubbles, only to find out that the tub is not even plugged in.!

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