GDB 26.0: ENDING ON A HIGH

Jason Gregor
March 12 2013 02:30PM

The Oilers end their franchise-high nine-game road trip tonight with a date in Denver, and they will look to salvage the trip with a victory. A win would make them 3-4-2 on the trip and keep them within five points of the playoffs.

If the playoffs are the goal, tonight is a must-win when you look at the standings.

A win tonight would give them 25 points in 26 games, meaning they'd need 29 in their final 22 games to make post-season if we agree that 54 points is the magic number to get in.

Outside of the daunting task of needing to go 14-7-1, 13-6-3 or 12-5-5 in their final 22 games, their playoff push could be derailed by too many 3-point games. So far this year the western conference is having a significantly higher amount of 3-point games than in previous seasons.

2012

Western conference played 615 games.

465 ended up as 2-point games.       75.6%
150 ended up being 3-point games. 24.4%
98 of (150) went to a SO.                      15.9% (of total games played)
52 of (150) were decided in OT.            8.5% (of total games played)

Eastern conference played 615 games and oddly enough had the exact same amount of 3-point games.

465 ended up as 2-point games.       75.6%
150 ended up being 3-point games. 24.4%
85 of (150) went to a SO.                      13.8% (of total games played)
65 of (150) were decided in OT.          10.6% (of total games played)

With the same amount of 3-point games each conference ended up with five 100-point teams and the 8th seed in the East had 92 points, while the 8th seed in the west had 95. The 8 playoff teams in the east combined for 68 three-point games and 802 total points,  while the 8 western teams had 83 three-point games and combined for 815 points.

In 2011, the east had 150 games go to OT, while the west was just below at 147. (24.1% of  league games).
In 2010, the east had 156 games go to OT, while the west had 145. (24.5% of league games).

2013

So far this season, however, there has been a significant difference between the two conferences.

The Eastern conference has played 190 games.

152 have ended as 2-point games.   80%
38 ended up being 3-point affairs.     20%
19 of (38) went to a SO.                        10% (of total games played)
19 of (38) were decided in OT.            10% (of total games played)

The Western conference has played fewer games, 185, but they've already seen way more go to OT.

128 have ended as 2-point games.   69.2%
57 ended up being 3-point affairs.     30.8%
33 of (57) went to a SO.                        17.8% (of total games played)
24 of (57) were decided in OT.            13% (of total games played)

Right now the west has 10% more of their games ending in 3-point affairs.

The league as a whole is up a bit as 25.3% of the games played have gone to OT, but the west is significantly ahead. It could just be an anomaly to start the season, or the teams or more even or playing to get to OT. Either way, if the west stays at 30% it will be much harder for the Oilers to climb up the standings.

LINE UP

Hall/Horcoff/Hemsky
Jones/Nugent-Hopkins/Eberle
Paajarvi/Gagner/Yakupov
Brown/Smyth/Petrell

Smid/Petry
Whitney/J.Schultz
N.Schultz/Potter

Dubnyk

Usually you don't switch anything anything after beating the best team in the league, but Krueger suggested he'd put Jones in for Hartikainen. Krueger also hinted that there was a slight flu bug going around, so maybe Hartikainen is sick. The Oilers need to compete as hard as they did in Chicago and they'll have a chance. If they revert back to losing battles and not making smart plays at the offensive blueline they will lose.

OVERTIME

  • If I'm the OIlers, I'd move Eric Belanger before the deadline. It is obvious by his play on the ice that he isn't happy here, and the Oilers don't need that in their dressing room. I think he'd have some value. He's a veteran who can kill penalties and win faceoffs.
     
  • How much is Ladislav Smid worth? Is he better than Johnny Boychuk in Boston? I see them as similar players, although Boychuk benefits from playing with Chara. Boychuk's cap hit is $3.36 million. Matt Greene is $2.95 mill. Johnny Oduya makes $3.38 mill. On a good team Smid is a very good #4, and the Oilers desperately need him. He'll probably get $3.5 mill in free agency so if the Oilers offer between  $3.1-$3.5 million I think that is fair. You?
     
  • Anton Lander has been assigned to OKC. Smart move. He needs to play more than 9 minutes a night.
     
  • If you have a moment take the time to vote for New Sarepta (my hometown) in this contest. It will give them a great night out, but more importantly some money to upgrade their arena. I'd appreciate it if you voted just once at least. Daily would be even better, and likely give you good karma to win something on my show. Thanks.
     

GAME DAY PREDICTION: After Sunday's entertaining and unexpected affair, we won't see as much offence tonight, but it will be close. Oilers keep slim playoff hopes alive with a 4-3 OT victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Duchene has six points in three games vs. Edmonton this year and he maintains that pace with a goal and an assist. Nugent-Hopkins matches Duchene's production and scores his first goal in 12 games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS PREDICTION: After being on the receiving end of numerous heavy hits from Ryan Wilson in the OHL and NHL, Hall returns the favour when he lays out Wilson with a clean hit behind the net. The hit sets the tone for an exciting third period.

YOU WIN, CHARITY WINS

 

Do you play Hold 'em? How good are you? Now is your chance to find out.

Here is your chance to helps end MS and win your entry ($10,000) to the WSOP main event.

The 2nd annual Gregor Charity Classic goes Saturday, April 13th.

Century Casino, Oilersnation.com, Darci Huhn with Travel Only  and The Jason Gregor Show have teamed up for a fun day of chirping, card playing and fundraising.

WHEN: Saturday April 13th. Registration at 11:30, tourney at 1 p.m.
WHERE: Century Casino, 13103 Fort Road
WHO: 100 Texas Hold Em Players
WHY: To Help End MS and win a seat at the WSOP main event

COST: $185 per person (15% goes to MS Society)

Please be advised of the following stipulations for the tournament:  

·       All participants must be 21 years of age.
·       The grand prize is based on a minimum occupancy of 80 participants, with only 100 spots available. If all spots are not filled, the grand prize will be adjusted to the pre-determined cash prizing.
·       The grand prize awarded is a seat in the World Series of Poker Tournament Main Event, valued at $10,000 USD, in Las Vegas July 7th – 16th, 2013. The last 9 players of the tournament will return to Las Vegas in November 2013 for the final table. All events will be held at the Rio Hotel.
The grand prize includes airfare, courtesy of Darci Huhn with Travel Only and accommodation for one.
·         The grand prize is non-transferable. The 1st place grand prize winner of the tournament  will accept the prize as awarded and be expected to participate and represent Century Casino and The Jason Gregor Show in the World Series of Poker Tournament.

·         The remainder of the cash prizing for the tournament will be broken down as follows, based on full occupancy:

 
1st place- $10,000 entry fee into WSOP main event.
2
nd place - $2,000.00 cash  and $500 donation in name to MS Society.
3rd place - $800.00 cash and $200 donation in name to MS Society
4th place - $640.00 cash and $160 donation in name to MS Society.
5th place - $560.00 cash and $140 donation in name to MS Society.
6th place - $480.00 cash and $120 donation in name to MS Society.
7th place - $400.00 cash and $100 donation in name to MS Society
8th place - $320.00 cash and $80 donation in name to MS Society
9th place - $240.00 cash and $60 donation in name to MS Society.
10th place - $210.00 cash and $62.50 donation in name to MS Society.
 

** 1st place prize is not redeemable for cash. If you can't go then the 2nd place winner can go in your place and you receive their prize.**

To enter call 780.643.4060 right now... Good luck.

RECENTLY BY JASON GREGOR

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 Phixieus666
March 12 2013, 05:15PM
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Light, Sweet, Crude wrote:

Apparently, per Mackenzie, Howson is scouting the Pens game on behalf of the Oilers tonight.

Ya he couldn't identify good talent with Columbus what the hell is Edm getting him to do it for. The utter stupidity of the management is just overwhelming.

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#52 DV. Asteroid
March 12 2013, 05:36PM
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Got to see number one pick line

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#54 michael
March 12 2013, 05:48PM
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|Belanger to washington for volpati.should have had that guy already.could compliment mike brwon on the 4th line. eager needs to be waived. okc or elsewhere. TH needs to be in OKC. As much as i think Smyth is a heart and soul Oiler i think that a trade to chicago at the deadline for mark mcneil(dreaming) or a 3rd pick.

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#55 Rama Lama
March 12 2013, 06:05PM
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I for one am going to miss Belenger skating around really fast, accomplishing nothing.

If any GM gives up more than a fifth round draft pick,.......it's because he is an idiot!

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#56 westcoastoil
March 12 2013, 06:25PM
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"If I'm the OIlers, I'd move Eric Belanger before the deadline. It is obvious by his play on the ice that he isn't happy here, and the Oilers don't need that in their dressing room. I think he'd have some value. He's a veteran who can kill penalties and win faceoffs."

Weird how hat has played out with Belanger. His numbers prior to coming here suggested he would be an excellent 4th line centre, maybe some 3rd who could chip in with 10+ goals a year. Watching Oil Change he took a little less $ to sign for 3 years. What's your take on why it hasn't worked Jason? Speed of the game + age = frustration?

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#57 Walter Sobchak
March 12 2013, 06:26PM
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I really don't see a lot happening on the Oiler front as far as "big" trades go.

I still think management wants to get the lowest possible pick and maybe a few more seconds or even a a late first.

Belanger and Hemsky, possible Smid and Smyth.

I can see Belanger & Smyth for picks.

Hemsky & Smid for roster need's next year.

On another note.

Really, how bad are the Oiler's if they are playing Jones and giving him second line minutes, doesn't that just sum it up right there.

Jesus, this Oiler's line up is bad.

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#58 Neil
March 12 2013, 06:37PM
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I could see teams like Penguins or Ducks being interested in a player like Shawn Horcoff.

Horcoff is still a very good penalty killer.

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#59 RSD
March 12 2013, 07:57PM
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Marcus wrote:

Ahhh....New Sarepta. I'm dating myself here but I remember playing in that town's rink 30 years ago. Not only was the coldest rink I've played in, for some reason it was always far, far colder inside that rink than it was outside. Not sure if things have changed since, but you've got my vote.

At end of roadtrip, Oilers sick and tired of hotels and each other. 3-1 Avs.

NS rink has been renovated and is still colder inside than outside.

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#60 Reach Advantage
March 12 2013, 08:06PM
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What if you could trade Smid for a 1st round pick from a team fighting for a playoff spot, like Philadelphia or NYIslanders? Would you do it?

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#61 Reach Advantage
March 12 2013, 08:08PM
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"On a good team Smid is a very good #4" It depends what kind of D you like. He wouldn't be in Vancouver's top 4 because he doesn't get shots on net and he doesn't skate well enough.

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Anyone got a link?

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#63 Whitneyis#1D
March 12 2013, 08:36PM
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Whitney = The next karlsson. stop trying to trade him oil! we want him here!

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#64 bleedingoil
March 12 2013, 08:41PM
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http://www.firstrow1.eu/watch/174487/1/watch-colorado-avalanche-vs-edmonton-oilers.html

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#65 StHenriOilBomb
March 12 2013, 08:50PM
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@The poster formerly known as Koolaid drinker #33

atdhe.net scroll down and try a few. I found a decent one there tonight.

Pajaarvi was sooooo happy about that goal!

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#66 hunkybill
March 12 2013, 08:58PM
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When will they blow the three zip lead? Any guesses?

it should be noted I want the win.....

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#67 MAC962
March 12 2013, 09:03PM
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This team confuses the beejeesus out of me. Dont sit back boys - keep digging- 20 more minutes and its home time!

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Thanks!

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#69 oilman3
March 12 2013, 10:03PM
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good job boys. i was pretty worried about this one since the avs were rolling and at home, not to mention the altitude always seems to wreck the oilers even at the best of times. also gotta give dubnyk some credit tonight. i'm still not sold on him, but he looked comfortable, swallowed up the rebounds and just looked quicker getting back into position than he often does. bring it home and keep it rolling.

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#70 Serious Gord
March 12 2013, 10:04PM
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Jason thanks for the stats, but lets look at it a different and arguably easier way to understand the mountain that the oil will have to climb to make the playoffs:

Using the bigger sample of 2012:

930 games - 2 PTs awarded + 300 games - 3 PTs awarded = 2760 PTs in 1230 games = 2.244 PTs / game avg.

Assuming EDM wins tonight, 26 PTs in 25 games or .961 PTs per game. That's a 430 (.961/2.244) winning percentage. Pathetic.

You assume that 54 pts will be the hurdle. With all due respect I think that 56 will be the cut off. That means EDM will have to get 30 PTs in 23 games - avg of 1.26 PTs per game - a 586 winning pctge. Thus they will have to play significantly better than both the kings and van have played thusfar in the season.

And that's a big hurdle.

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#71 They're $hittie
March 12 2013, 10:07PM
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DSF no where to be found when Sam and Maggie are playing well?

Ya Maggie has no hands.

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#72 oilman3
March 12 2013, 10:10PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

DSF no where to be found when Sam and Maggie are playing well?

Ya Maggie has no hands.

don't be surprised if he shows up to tell us about gagner's defensive mistakes.

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#73 TonyT
March 12 2013, 10:12PM
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Complete game tonight (1st time all year). I hope the faithful still chant for blood next game though. #FTNF

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#74 outdoorzguy
March 12 2013, 10:21PM
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I watched the interview with Tortorella after the Ranger loss to the Sabres. How come our media never go after Krueger or Timid Tambellini like the New York media go after their coaches? Especially with the season we're having. And don't get all excited because we beat the Avalanche. The Oilers still suck, will continue to suck with a Junior A coach, and will suck even more with the Three Stooges, oops sorry, now it's the Four Stooges (add Howson as a stooge) at the helm of this floundering ship. With all the brass at the top of this organization its no wonder the ship is sinking. Just way too top heavy.

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#75 DSF
March 12 2013, 10:24PM
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They're $hittie wrote:

DSF no where to be found when Sam and Maggie are playing well?

Ya Maggie has no hands.

Right here.

Kadri and JVR making them look like goofs.

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#76 Oilfred
March 12 2013, 10:30PM
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DSF wrote:

Right here.

Kadri and JVR making them look like goofs.

With shooting %20, 16 and 15.5 for clark.

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#77 Oilfred
March 12 2013, 10:31PM
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Oilfred wrote:

With shooting %20, 16 and 15.5 for clark.

Sustainable?

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#78 Rocket
March 12 2013, 10:55PM
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outdoorzguy wrote:

I get that you are a disgruntled Oilers fan (and rightly so, in my opinion) but not every Oilers player is a bust.

But if we had a coach of professional talent (insert Lindy Ruff), there would be few busts if any on this team. If our GM helped a little too, then we could maybe mould this into something useful. But alas, its Timid Tambellini, so don't get your hopes up!!

Totally

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#79 Serious Gord
March 12 2013, 11:08PM
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dougtheslug wrote:

Remember the Canucks have been reduced to 5 defencemen and Cam Barker.

I'm not saying they have to catch them I'm saying they have to play better than van has played so far this year - iow when they had a healthy defensive core and were 3rd in the west.

Iow we have to be the third best team in the west for the balance of the season in order to squeak into the playoffs.

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