Why it seems unlikely that the Nashville Predators would trade Shea Weber

Jonathan Willis
May 01 2013 08:55AM

It’s (an understandable) dream of Oilers fans to see Shea Weber traded to Edmonton. Not only is he from Western Canada, big, strong and capable, but he’d fill the #1 defenceman hole that Edmonton has had since Chris Pronger left town.

Those dreams seem destined to go unfulfilled.

Get Used To Disappointment

Why would Nashville trade one of the league’s precious few franchise defenders? The answer always seems to be “they’re a small market club and they can’t afford him.” By their actions, though, it seems clear that the Predators have decided they can’t afford not to pay him.

The Economics of a Trade

Shea Weber signed his current contract – via a Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet – on July 19, 2012, forcing the Predators to either match and hang on to Weber for at least a year, or decline to match and accept four first-round picks in exchange for Weber’s services. The Flyers made it as difficult as possible for Nashville by structuring the contract to be extremely front-loaded.

No NHL player made more money in 2012-13 than Weber. More than that, Weber’s contract is structured to be heavily bonus-intensive – featuring a $1 million base salary and a $13 million signing bonus for each of the first four years. The signing bonuses mean that by the time Weber could be traded by the Predators, they will have paid $27 million of the $110 million on his contract – just slightly under one-quarter of his total contract in the first year.

Facing a $110 million decision, one has to think the Predators weighed the cost. None of these ramifications were unknown at the time; the Predators knew what they were getting into matching that offer sheet. If it made sense to sign him then, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to change their mind and move him after having already taken the worst lumps.

Certainly that’s the message general manager David Poile has always emphasized – asked about the possibility of a trade by CBC’s Elliotte Friedman in April, he made no secret as to his view:

We have a franchise goaltender and the best defenceman in the NHL ... We are building our team around them.

Ultimately, it comes down to this: either the Predators made a terrible mistake, Poile’s being disingenuous, and the team plans to try and get a better return than four first round picks after spending $27 million for 48 games or they really have no plans to trade Weber. The latter seems more likely to be reality than the former. None of that means the Oilers shouldn't ask, but it does mean not much is likely to come of it. 

Recently around the Nation Network

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
Avatar
#1 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 09:03AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers

If Gretzky can be traded... the unlikeliest of all hockey deals.

A team like the Predators, is much like the Oilers pre-lockout, hangers on in a small market. Operating near the bottom of the barrel counting heavily on revenue sharing to cover the shortfalls. There's no way they could ever afford to be a cap team. I believe the last 5 yrs they've been in the bottom 3 in the NHL as far as salaries go, consistently 10-13 million per season under the cap. Doesn't exactly scream, we're pushing to be the best. Looks more like, that's good enough for this market to me. The Predators have been building around their blueliner and goaltender, but they'll still be doing the same thing 5 yrs after these guys are retired. Unless the Preds get their hands on a generational type player, success will be difficult near the bottom of the barrel structure ownership is clinging to.

Too much coin tied up in one player. Poile would have to give it a second thought if Edmonton offered Eberle and Gagner to help bolster their top 6. Heck, give them Smid or Nick Shultz along with the first in 2014 as well.

Some trades are just good business transactions that help both hockey teams. I'm hoping.

Avatar
#2 Taylor Gang
May 01 2013, 09:05AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

His contract would be the biggest albatross down the road. It would be much smarter to go for a cheaper alternative. Perhaps a risk on Tyler Myers? I just don't see why we need a Dman of Weber's caliber. It reminds me of when I was listening to OilersNow and someone called in saying "Bob did you hear about the Nugent-Hopkins and a first for Malkin rumours?"

Avatar
#3 Butters
May 01 2013, 09:11AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
7
cheers

" it’s hard to imagine they’re going to change their mind and move him after having already taken the worst lumps."

Bingo. Thanks for writing this JW. If only this article would put the Shea Weber fantasy to bed. I see Quick is still clutching at the dream though.

Avatar
#4 Ducey
May 01 2013, 09:18AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
13
cheers

There is an inverse relationship between intelligence and the number of times one suggests the Oilers trade for Webber.

Avatar
#5 106 and 106
May 01 2013, 09:24AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
11
cheers

JW, THANK you for writing this. The Edmonton Oilers will not be receiving the services of Weber. Done. Let it go.

Avatar
#6 Jerod
May 01 2013, 09:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I agree

Avatar
#7 Taylor Gang
May 01 2013, 09:30AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Butters wrote:

" it’s hard to imagine they’re going to change their mind and move him after having already taken the worst lumps."

Bingo. Thanks for writing this JW. If only this article would put the Shea Weber fantasy to bed. I see Quick is still clutching at the dream though.

This

Avatar
#8 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 09:32AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers

Maybe you guys are right. Lowe will never pull a Pronger out of his hat again. Why even bother raising expectations for the third highest ticket prices in the league.

This is as good as it gets Edmonton. Just making the playoffs again is as good as it gets for this most northern outpost.

Weber to Edmonton, the laughing stock of the NHL....what a laugher! Will the last overpaid, underachieving veteran playing out his golden years here, please turn out the lights before leaving town.

Quitters rejoice, and pile on!

Avatar
#9 vetinari
May 01 2013, 09:32AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

First, Nashville doesn't want to trade him, and second, even if they did, the return to Nashville would have to be huge.

Also, from a practical standpoint, Weber can't be traded until mid-July and I doubt that our "impatient GM" is going to sit by and let UFA's and trades happen without getting in on the action just on the chance that Poile might reverse course and set up a deal with the Oilers that they can afford. Not gonna happen...

Avatar
#10 DieHard
May 01 2013, 09:41AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

At what point did Weber become Weber? Maybe we already have him and just don't know it.

Avatar
#11 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 09:41AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Ducey wrote:

There is an inverse relationship between intelligence and the number of times one suggests the Oilers trade for Webber.

Your post also appears to be lacking in some intelligence there as well Ducey....just sayin.

Avatar
#12 Joel
May 01 2013, 09:45AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Seems like the Oilers have been searching for Milan Lucic for ever, looks to me like Nichushkin is somewhat close probably more skilled and much less apt to fight.

Avatar
#13 Yep
May 01 2013, 09:48AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
3
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Maybe you guys are right. Lowe will never pull a Pronger out of his hat again. Why even bother raising expectations for the third highest ticket prices in the league.

This is as good as it gets Edmonton. Just making the playoffs again is as good as it gets for this most northern outpost.

Weber to Edmonton, the laughing stock of the NHL....what a laugher! Will the last overpaid, underachieving veteran playing out his golden years here, please turn out the lights before leaving town.

Quitters rejoice, and pile on!

Really? Just because people are being realistic and don't expect the best defensemen in the game to get traded to the Oilers suddenly means that they dont want the Oilers to improve? Give your head a shake man and stop the being bloody dramatic. Of course everyone here wants to see the Oilers improve. You know what we dont want to see? We don't want to see this club chase another elite player, not land him, and not have a backup plan.

Avatar
#14 Cody anderson
May 01 2013, 09:57AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

It never hurts to ask, the same as it wouldn't hurt to ask about Crosby, Malkin, Toewes, Tavares, Getzlaf etc.

The fact remains unless a team is really trying to change their dynamic very few teams move their superstars without a huge overpay going in the other direction.

Unless a trade is demanded the chances that he leaves there in his prime are slim. Our best bet is hoping drafting works out, or looking at project Dmen.

People that have the size and the skillset but for whatever reason have yet to put it all together.

Avatar
#15 Butters
May 01 2013, 09:58AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@Quick

Nashville had to retain the services of Weber. He is their only marquee player imo. They lost Suter and I suspect the fanbase would not have reacted well to losing Weber as well. They paid a steep price to keep people shuffling to the ticket window. Trading Weber, even in a deal that mekes sense hockey-wise to their club, may not go over well in that market.

I too am an Oiler fan tired of my team living in the basement, but trading Weber makes no sense from the Nashville side of the ledger.

Now about Lucic...

Avatar
#16 Ducey
May 01 2013, 10:06AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Your post also appears to be lacking in some intelligence there as well Ducey....just sayin.

Come on. Thats the smartest post ever!

Look, why don't you focus on reality. The Oilers ideally need to get a #1 Dman. If we look at Weber (a 49th pick), OEL (6th), Doughty (2nd overall), Keith (54th) it would seem the Oilers could pick up a guy who has been drafted and has not yet become the next great defenseman or focus on drafting him themselves.

They have the chance to pick the best defenseman not named Jones in a deep draft with their #7 pick. That guy might be able to help them in a year.

I suggest that rather than break the bank trying to get someone next year that they focus on development.

Take the best guy they can at #7, sign Streit to a three year deal, and trade Hemsky for another good prospect.

Next year you have Streit, Petry, Smid, Shultz x2, and Fistric as your top 6. Potter is #7 and on the farm you have Klefbom, Marincin, Musil (who has been a beast in the playoffs), and the prospect from Hemsky. Your #7 is a year away with Gernat, Davidson, Simpson still coming.

By midseason you might have Marincin and Klefbom playing in the NHL as needed.

That would constitute some tremendous depth at defense and is only a year away.

Avatar
#17 GVBlackhawk
May 01 2013, 10:14AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
vetinari wrote:

First, Nashville doesn't want to trade him, and second, even if they did, the return to Nashville would have to be huge.

Also, from a practical standpoint, Weber can't be traded until mid-July and I doubt that our "impatient GM" is going to sit by and let UFA's and trades happen without getting in on the action just on the chance that Poile might reverse course and set up a deal with the Oilers that they can afford. Not gonna happen...

What? Belanger, Peckham, NSchultz, Omark, and a 2014 3rd rounder won't get it done??

Delusion runs rampant in the Oilogosphere when it comes to Shea Weber.

Avatar
#18 admiralmark
May 01 2013, 10:15AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

So you're sayin there's a chance?!! I read gyah!

Lol.. certain fans just will not get rid of this pipe dream.

Avatar
#19 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 10:16AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Butters

Edmonton has been on the short end of this scenario far too many times these last 20 yrs. The Predators have some lunch money in their pocket and one of the bullies in the schoolyard (the "have" Oilers) wants it.

I know the last 4 yrs have been difficult, I can identify with Lowe driving this thing face first into the mud to collect lotto picks/assets. The goal now needs to be putting things back together instead of breaking it apart. It's just nice to be able to go somewhere (here )and converse about things that cross our mind, but don't matter in the overall scheme of things. Our NHL is living in a too many teams, not enough talent, hell.

Time to plunder someone elses dungeon.

Avatar
#20 GVBlackhawk
May 01 2013, 10:19AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Ducey wrote:

Come on. Thats the smartest post ever!

Look, why don't you focus on reality. The Oilers ideally need to get a #1 Dman. If we look at Weber (a 49th pick), OEL (6th), Doughty (2nd overall), Keith (54th) it would seem the Oilers could pick up a guy who has been drafted and has not yet become the next great defenseman or focus on drafting him themselves.

They have the chance to pick the best defenseman not named Jones in a deep draft with their #7 pick. That guy might be able to help them in a year.

I suggest that rather than break the bank trying to get someone next year that they focus on development.

Take the best guy they can at #7, sign Streit to a three year deal, and trade Hemsky for another good prospect.

Next year you have Streit, Petry, Smid, Shultz x2, and Fistric as your top 6. Potter is #7 and on the farm you have Klefbom, Marincin, Musil (who has been a beast in the playoffs), and the prospect from Hemsky. Your #7 is a year away with Gernat, Davidson, Simpson still coming.

By midseason you might have Marincin and Klefbom playing in the NHL as needed.

That would constitute some tremendous depth at defense and is only a year away.

That top 6 of Streit, Smid, NSchultz, JSchultz, Petry, and Fistric is not very good -- certainly not good enough for a playoff team.

And don't listen to Oilers management. Klefbom and (especially) Marincin are not going to step in next year and make an impact. In fact, Marincin would likely get massacred in the NHL at this point. They should develop in the minors until their abilities reach the point that the Oilers are forced to bring them up.

Avatar
#21 Jerod
May 01 2013, 10:23AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
2
cheers
Ducey wrote:

Come on. Thats the smartest post ever!

Look, why don't you focus on reality. The Oilers ideally need to get a #1 Dman. If we look at Weber (a 49th pick), OEL (6th), Doughty (2nd overall), Keith (54th) it would seem the Oilers could pick up a guy who has been drafted and has not yet become the next great defenseman or focus on drafting him themselves.

They have the chance to pick the best defenseman not named Jones in a deep draft with their #7 pick. That guy might be able to help them in a year.

I suggest that rather than break the bank trying to get someone next year that they focus on development.

Take the best guy they can at #7, sign Streit to a three year deal, and trade Hemsky for another good prospect.

Next year you have Streit, Petry, Smid, Shultz x2, and Fistric as your top 6. Potter is #7 and on the farm you have Klefbom, Marincin, Musil (who has been a beast in the playoffs), and the prospect from Hemsky. Your #7 is a year away with Gernat, Davidson, Simpson still coming.

By midseason you might have Marincin and Klefbom playing in the NHL as needed.

That would constitute some tremendous depth at defense and is only a year away.

Adam Larsson huge upside, NJ needs forwards, may be the right timing for a deal.

Avatar
#22 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 10:26AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@Ducey

Look, why don't you focus on reality. [quote}

Deals are made for many reasons Ducey. Some players/contracts are sold under wishes of ownership/group, and some are just old fashioned hockey deals. All are still deals, no matter what prompts a deal. Getting themselves out from under this financial burden is reason enough to believe this is at all a possibility. If they act in the next 12 months they can still rid themselves of 75% of the value of that 110 million dollar contract.

Is this not the said reality you've mentioned here? I like you Ducey (gives Ducey a head wash) but we've put up with a lot of ship here these last 7 yrs. This needs to change.

You have to give me credit Ducey. The vision of desperate Oiler fan on his knees begging for his monies worth, is appropriate at this time, is it not? Lets just milk it for the summer.

Avatar
#23 Butters
May 01 2013, 10:31AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Quick The difficulty for us fans is not the length of the rebuild, but the length of time the Oilers have been terrible. That's what is making us impatient. But it is difficult to weave straw into gold and yet we fans expect that. We still need both better roster players and better prospects.

Trading for a stud dman may cost 1 or 2 of our fab 5 That may mean we are still running on the spot for another season or taking a step backwards. Fixing this will not be easy.

Avatar
#24 RexLibris
May 01 2013, 10:31AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

If it appears almost certain that the Predators would not trade Weber then perhaps there is a silver lining in it all.

That being that the Oilers might be able to interest the Flyers in a trade. Presumably the Flyers would be the one team most interested, or at least most aggressive, in trying to land Weber. If they have deemed certain assets as expendable by trade then perhaps the Oilers could find something to pique their interest.

As for the Oilers/Weber pipe dream, the Oilers need to find their own Weber, not go chasing after the same one everybody wants.

Drafting one at #7 this year likely isn't the answer either as it would probably take at least three years before that player could contribute to the team. The better use of a draft pick might be to select Samuel Morin in the 2nd round this year.

Avatar
#25 OilersBrass
May 01 2013, 10:36AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
106 and 106 wrote:

JW, THANK you for writing this. The Edmonton Oilers will not be receiving the services of Weber. Done. Let it go.

Amen to that!

Avatar
#26 madjam
May 01 2013, 10:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Nashville kept him because they felt whomever got him the 4 first round picks would not equate to Weber , as that team probably would have flourished with him . There hands were tied and they'll probably get more for him via trade at a later date . Seems to me Weber was welcoming going elsewhere after they let Suter go - so he might not be a happy camper .If so , and considering Nashville did little this season with Weber in lineup then he could be readily be available for the right price . Not a price I believe reasonable for us , however .

I feel they would like to move him before he demands a trade and lowers his value to them . After the signup money is done then they could be in a vary precarious position with him if he wants out .

Avatar
#27 Ducey
May 01 2013, 10:47AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

That top 6 of Streit, Smid, NSchultz, JSchultz, Petry, and Fistric is not very good -- certainly not good enough for a playoff team.

And don't listen to Oilers management. Klefbom and (especially) Marincin are not going to step in next year and make an impact. In fact, Marincin would likely get massacred in the NHL at this point. They should develop in the minors until their abilities reach the point that the Oilers are forced to bring them up.

You have another year of development for J Schultz, Petry and Smid and get rid of whatever BS system they had last year and they will be fine.

Marincin is 6'5", has decent speed, put up 30 pts in 69 games in OKC and led the team in +/-with a +20 in his rookie year. He is going to be a good player.

Avatar
#28 Butters
May 01 2013, 10:52AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Ducey "...get rid of whatever BS system they had last year..."

There was a system?

Avatar
#29 DSF
May 01 2013, 10:56AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Ducey wrote:

You have another year of development for J Schultz, Petry and Smid and get rid of whatever BS system they had last year and they will be fine.

Marincin is 6'5", has decent speed, put up 30 pts in 69 games in OKC and led the team in +/-with a +20 in his rookie year. He is going to be a good player.

They won't be "fine".

None of that group has the tools to be a legit #1 or #2 D.

If Junior learns how to play some defense, he might eventually be a good #2 but that is likely some years away.

If the Oilers want to be competitive in the next 2-3 years, they need to find at least one top pairing D and they can't afford to wait while burning through ELC's.

That's why this "rebuild" has always been doomed to failure.

Proper rebuilds are done from the backend out since D men and goaltenders take much longer to develop.

Avatar
#30 The Soup Fascist
May 01 2013, 10:57AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Look, why don't you focus on reality. [quote}

Deals are made for many reasons Ducey. Some players/contracts are sold under wishes of ownership/group, and some are just old fashioned hockey deals. All are still deals, no matter what prompts a deal. Getting themselves out from under this financial burden is reason enough to believe this is at all a possibility. If they act in the next 12 months they can still rid themselves of 75% of the value of that 110 million dollar contract.

Is this not the said reality you've mentioned here? I like you Ducey (gives Ducey a head wash) but we've put up with a lot of ship here these last 7 yrs. This needs to change.

You have to give me credit Ducey. The vision of desperate Oiler fan on his knees begging for his monies worth, is appropriate at this time, is it not? Lets just milk it for the summer.

I watched the replay of NC State 1983 NCAA Basketball championship story on 30 for 30 yesterday. What I got out of that was:

1. It is good to think about your dreams every day - and you should dream big dreams.

2. Don't ever give up the fight (I just realized that Valvano may have stolen that line from "The Untouchables", but it was way more powerful coming from him than Costner)

So Quickie, you can dream that dream and no one should have any problem with it. And MacT should inquire about the opportunity - more than once - and "fight" for an elite defenseman.

As long as MacT does not focus on an unlikely homerun to forego a bunch of singles (a'la Tamblowelinni putting all their eggs in the Marian Hossa basket a couple of seasons ago) - what is the harm?

**OK I think I used up analogies / references to about 5 different sports. Do I get an Oodle Noodle prize pack, or what?

Avatar
#31 merfer
May 01 2013, 10:59AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The answer is not to trade for Weber because that contract would kill our team in time and Nashville would want way to much. The answer is to find the next Shea Weber. I don't have the answer to this but that is what the Oilers should be looking for. Is there even someone remotely close who needs a few more seasons to mature, who could be the next one. Is Erik Gudbranson or Alex Pietrangelo possible choices and could their teams be persuaded to trade with us? Forget Weber and look into the future. I think that's all MacT can do.

Avatar
#32 vetinari
May 01 2013, 11:06AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
GVBlackhawk wrote:

What? Belanger, Peckham, NSchultz, Omark, and a 2014 3rd rounder won't get it done??

Delusion runs rampant in the Oilogosphere when it comes to Shea Weber.

@GVBlackhawk - Belanger, Peckham, NShultz, Omark and a 3rd rounder likely wouldn't get you a bus pass from Nashville, let alone Weber.

As an aside, I was in Nashville two weeks ago for a friend's wedding but unfortunately, the Pred's were on the road or else I would have taken in a game. The team was almost invisible in their newspaper's sports section and I'm sure every player of the Pred's lived in relative anonymity down there.

If you wanted to talk college sports, basketball, baseball or NASCAR, guys knew that stuff... you want to talk hockey, good luck with that! I tried to convince one set of Americans that hockey was as "down south" as it got-- you had toothless, bearded guys fightin' and a feudin' with weapons against a bunch of northerners-- why wouldn't they watch that? But apparently, the ice thing is a no go, they have trouble following the play, have no idea how to pronounce player's names and have no idea what the rules are ("icing" occurs on more than just cakes, gentlemen).

Avatar
#33 Shredder
May 01 2013, 11:18AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Ok, no more trades Weber rumors. Check. Glad someone is smartening up the fans.

Now let the Gudbranson/Pietriangelo/Bogosian rumors start up.

It would be great to get that franchise dman, but I think if we got some depth there, we could forego trading too much to get it. Like The Soup Facist said: "an unlikely homerun to forego a bunch of singles"...meaning let's get some decent defensemen, and our prospects (Klefbom maybe) could eventually turn into the guy everyone is looking for anyways.

Our defense sucks, but if we add some quality (just not necessarily the best in the league) and then some 2 way guys up front, and a little size, we should be playoff bound. Then we can make decisions on where to go from there to be a contender.

Avatar
#34 The Soup Fascist
May 01 2013, 11:27AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
merfer wrote:

The answer is not to trade for Weber because that contract would kill our team in time and Nashville would want way to much. The answer is to find the next Shea Weber. I don't have the answer to this but that is what the Oilers should be looking for. Is there even someone remotely close who needs a few more seasons to mature, who could be the next one. Is Erik Gudbranson or Alex Pietrangelo possible choices and could their teams be persuaded to trade with us? Forget Weber and look into the future. I think that's all MacT can do.

Honestly, it is 10 times more likely that you can get Weber than Pietrangelo - and Weber falls into the "slim to none" category. Reason being is AP's youth and the lack of albatross contract that you alluded to.

Would be nice though .....

Gubrandson may have been more in play if Colorado didn't "Tambellini" the Panthers. Now, not so much, I think.

Avatar
#35 Jerod
May 01 2013, 11:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I quite surprised no one is jumping on board with Adam Larsson.

If he was in the draft this year he would be a top 4 pick in my opinion. He would easily be the 2nd best D in the draft.

Unlikely NJ would trade he .

Avatar
#36 15w40
May 01 2013, 11:35AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Weber isn't happening.

Try and move some of the Oilers' assets to get one or both of Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart and maybe throw in Ryan Reaves for good measure as a 3rd/4th line punisher.

This will cost some current roster players from both the forwards and the defense, but these are the types that the Oilers need.

Will the blues be able to keep both Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo? I can't see them parting with the latter. He could be a future captain. That and they have Bouwmeester signed for next year at 6.7 mill.

Avatar
#37 The Soup Fascist
May 01 2013, 11:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
15w40 wrote:

Weber isn't happening.

Try and move some of the Oilers' assets to get one or both of Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart and maybe throw in Ryan Reaves for good measure as a 3rd/4th line punisher.

This will cost some current roster players from both the forwards and the defense, but these are the types that the Oilers need.

Will the blues be able to keep both Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo? I can't see them parting with the latter. He could be a future captain. That and they have Bouwmeester signed for next year at 6.7 mill.

Based on what I saw from Reeves yesterday, he isn't close to a "throw in".

Avatar
#38 Taylor Gang
May 01 2013, 11:39AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

If Gretzky can be traded... the unlikeliest of all hockey deals.

A team like the Predators, is much like the Oilers pre-lockout, hangers on in a small market. Operating near the bottom of the barrel counting heavily on revenue sharing to cover the shortfalls. There's no way they could ever afford to be a cap team. I believe the last 5 yrs they've been in the bottom 3 in the NHL as far as salaries go, consistently 10-13 million per season under the cap. Doesn't exactly scream, we're pushing to be the best. Looks more like, that's good enough for this market to me. The Predators have been building around their blueliner and goaltender, but they'll still be doing the same thing 5 yrs after these guys are retired. Unless the Preds get their hands on a generational type player, success will be difficult near the bottom of the barrel structure ownership is clinging to.

Too much coin tied up in one player. Poile would have to give it a second thought if Edmonton offered Eberle and Gagner to help bolster their top 6. Heck, give them Smid or Nick Shultz along with the first in 2014 as well.

Some trades are just good business transactions that help both hockey teams. I'm hoping.

You said it yourself, too much coin in one player.

Do you have ANY idea how much value these first overall picks will be in their prime? Past first overall forwards in the past 5 years:

Tavares Stamkos Kane Crosby Ovechkin

You tell me that we'll be able to afford 3 with Weber on the books.

Avatar
#39 Ducey
May 01 2013, 11:41AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
4
cheers
DSF wrote:

They won't be "fine".

None of that group has the tools to be a legit #1 or #2 D.

If Junior learns how to play some defense, he might eventually be a good #2 but that is likely some years away.

If the Oilers want to be competitive in the next 2-3 years, they need to find at least one top pairing D and they can't afford to wait while burning through ELC's.

That's why this "rebuild" has always been doomed to failure.

Proper rebuilds are done from the backend out since D men and goaltenders take much longer to develop.

Oh no! I better start cheering for another random team!

How about say, the Canucks? They gave up a whole 13 goals less than the Oilers. They are so much better with their #1 Dman. Who is that again?

Maybe Columbus. DSF says they are good. Oh, wait, they didn't make the playoffs. Maybe we can get their GM though.

Nashville then? They have the best Dman in history and a brilliant GM. Wait, but they finished behind Edmonton and gave up more goals. Rats.

Oh Minni. Thats right. They have the other best Dman in history and gave up so many fewer goals than the Oilers. Whats that? Yeah, 7 fewer goals.

No way the Oilers could ever improve by 7 goals against.

THEY ARE DOOMED!

Avatar
#40 15w40
May 01 2013, 11:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
The Soup Fascist wrote:

Based on what I saw from Reeves yesterday, he isn't close to a "throw in".

Ya - i know but since we're just sitting here with the pie in the sky, I thought i might as well just "throw him in there too"

It's fun to spitball this stuff, but to make any of these deals happen the pipe dream of keeping #4, #14, #64, and #93 just isn't going to happen.

All of these players being thrown around don't get traded for 2nd line players and spare parts..

Avatar
#41 DonDon
May 01 2013, 11:53AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

If Quicksilver is a solid Oilers' fan, I understand his disappointment and anger. Many of us feel the same disappointment in the utter incompetence of the senior management in hockey ops. Perhaps this will change with MacTavish, our only hope.

As nice, but impractical, as it would be to acquire Weber, in actuality defence isn't the Oilers' biggest problem. It is at forward.

As we get reacquainted with the increased speed, intensity and physicality of SC playoffs, can any of us imagine what would have happened if the Oilers made the playoffs this season? Most of the forwards would have been either wiped out physically or been inconsequential in the first round. The inconsequential would include veterans Belanger, Brown, Hofcoff, Jones, Smithson and Smyth.

MacTavish maybe impatient, but he has a real mess to clean up before the Oilers can compete for the SC. Whether we like it or not, the rebuild will continue (under whatever name management cares to call it).

Avatar
#42 The Beaker
May 01 2013, 11:55AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I absolutely think STL has to be a primary trade target. They wont be in our division anymore which is basically like being out of conference now. We have stuff they could use (offense and the ability to be flexible with our cap for now) and they have stuff we could use (defense with massive upside that would fit into our talent cluster).

I dont know what the pieces are/could be going eithe way but Shattenkirk/Stewart have to be at the top of the list for what we would want.

Avatar
#43 The Beaker
May 01 2013, 12:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@DonDon

Yes our forwards would get leaned on and that is a problem. A big problem, not as big as our defense is though. the entire game starts from the backend out and we currently employ 3-4 NHL defensemen. Smid, Petry, Justin Schultz and maybe, maybe Nick Schultz. Justin has the potential to be able to pair up with a #1 guy, I have 0 issue with Smid and Petry being the 3-4 pairing. Nick going forward is like a 6 who will be fading into a 7 eventually.

We have top end forwards (if unbalanced) we do not have top end defense at this point in time.

Avatar
#44 DSF
May 01 2013, 12:05PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Ducey wrote:

Oh no! I better start cheering for another random team!

How about say, the Canucks? They gave up a whole 13 goals less than the Oilers. They are so much better with their #1 Dman. Who is that again?

Maybe Columbus. DSF says they are good. Oh, wait, they didn't make the playoffs. Maybe we can get their GM though.

Nashville then? They have the best Dman in history and a brilliant GM. Wait, but they finished behind Edmonton and gave up more goals. Rats.

Oh Minni. Thats right. They have the other best Dman in history and gave up so many fewer goals than the Oilers. Whats that? Yeah, 7 fewer goals.

No way the Oilers could ever improve by 7 goals against.

THEY ARE DOOMED!

1) 13 goals over an 82 game season is about 22 goals...the difference between good and bad. And remember the Canucks fielded an AHL team in the final game allowing the Oilers to pad their stats.

2) Dan Hamhuis...one of the best defensive defensemen in the league who also managed to score 24 points while not getting much PP time.

3) Columbus would be a good bet. Now that their goaltending seems settled, they are absolutely loaded on D and, with 3 first round picks and too many defensemen, have the assets to shore up their forward ranks.

4) Nashville is in a tough spot after the Flyers launched their all out assault but, as you say, they have a brilliant GM and I'd wager they will be back in the playoffs before the Oilers.

5) Minnesota is still a work in progress having turned over 40% of their roster in one offseason but they went from a goal differential of -49 to -5 in one offseason so they certainly appear to be on the right track. When you consider how much depth they have in their prospect pool, its' a good thing the Oilers won't be in their division next season.

Bear in mind that Jonas Brodin is only 19 and already is a better defenseman than any Oiler and that they have Matt Dumba about to make his pro debut.

Avatar
#45 Will
May 01 2013, 12:14PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The Weber contract is stupid. The Oilers don't need Weber, they need the next Weber. Weber was taken like 47th overall and needed two years of development until he made the jump and likely another year or two before he was one of the best in the NHL.

Avatar
#46 SrCain
May 01 2013, 12:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
DSF wrote:

They won't be "fine".

None of that group has the tools to be a legit #1 or #2 D.

If Junior learns how to play some defense, he might eventually be a good #2 but that is likely some years away.

If the Oilers want to be competitive in the next 2-3 years, they need to find at least one top pairing D and they can't afford to wait while burning through ELC's.

That's why this "rebuild" has always been doomed to failure.

Proper rebuilds are done from the backend out since D men and goaltenders take much longer to develop.

So DSF, when a team is picking first overall for 3 yrs straight, and starting a rebuild, what do you do if the majority of top ranked prospects are forwards in those years. Like they were with oilers?

Avatar
#47 Butters
May 01 2013, 12:31PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@DSF, regarding Columbus, I think Bobs' 932 save percentage helped a lot.

Although they paid handsomely for him, Minnie received a Norris quality dman without the bother of having to develop him. Parise is not too shabby either. So hence the big turnaround. I would agree, they hit a monster first round homerun with Brodin.

Avatar
#48 andrewmk20
May 01 2013, 12:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Quicksilver ballet

Very different scenarios. Pocklington was bleeding cash and the team's finances were in deep trouble. The Oilers basically had a fire sale from 88-93 because of his financial instability and eventual bankruptcy. Nashville is different because they are stable economically but just cannot afford to spend to the cap. They're actually better off spending that cash on assets like Weber and then finding economical veterans like Wellwood, Antropov, etc.

Avatar
#49 Quicksilver ballet
May 01 2013, 12:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Okay, that Weber thing didn't go over so well.

Can we move onto Shea Weber jr/Erik Gudbranson then?

We might as well fix everything that ails our Oilers in one day.

Avatar
#50 DSF
May 01 2013, 12:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
SrCain wrote:

So DSF, when a team is picking first overall for 3 yrs straight, and starting a rebuild, what do you do if the majority of top ranked prospects are forwards in those years. Like they were with oilers?

Well, this actually started before the last 3 years.

Had the Oilers taken Kulikov instead of Paajarvi, they would be a lot farther ahead.

Instead, in the last 5 drafts, they've taken 4 wingers and 1 centre. Getting Klefbom in the Penner trade may help but you have to wonder how his injuries will affect his development.

Considering how the Oilers have drafted, I think it's almost inevitable that at least one of the wunderkids will have to be traded for a top pairing defenseman unless they can get one in free agency.

If they don't, I can't see them going too far.

Comments are closed for this article.