A FALSE SPRING?

Lowetide
May 10 2013 07:31PM

Teemu Hartikainen is "in the window" where he needs to step up from "quality AHL player" to "NHL regular. It's a massive step, and one I'm sure Edmonton would love to see the big Finn make this fall. The question I have is this: will Harski provide enough offense?

At the minor league level, Teemu Hartikainen is more than a face in the crowd. The young man has managed some impressive things in Oklahoma since the fall of 2010, and that is reflected in his AHL points per 82 games boxcars:

  • 82, 23-33-55, 173 shots on goal

That's a nice boxcar for the big Finnish player. If we estimate he's playing 15 minutes a game (total), that would be 2.68 points per 60 minutes of AHL play (combined EV/PP). I think it's a reasonable guess that Hartikainen's offense in the AHL suggests he should at least be capable of filling a 4line role and (to quote new GM Craig MacTavish) " In today’s NHL, even marginally, you have to be a threat to score."

THE NHL PERFORMANCE

However, the NHL numbers give a person pause about how much Hartikainen can help. If we use simple TOI and EV scoring over his three seasons in the NHL, we get this number for Harski:

  • NHL EV/60 2010-13: 0.81

The numbers by year:

  • 10-11: 1.04
  • 11-12: 1.36
  • 12-13: 0.00

A quick note: the NHL/EV number above uses the NHL.COM data for TOI and EV points, the season by season breakout is behind the net. They are not directly comparable, but do give an indication of what he's been doing at even strength/5x5 in the NHL.

IS THAT ENOUGH?

No. However, each of these season's is a small sample size. Teemu Hartikainen played 196 EV minutes this season and had zero EV points--that's not a good thing for a young player trying to impress a new General Manager. However, history tells us that minor league succes can predict major league ability, and Hartikainen's AHL numbers tell us that there may be a player here.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Teemu Hartikainen has played about 595 minutes of even strength NHL hockey over three seasons and is 4-4-8 during that time. That's below par, and the fact that he managed zero even strength points this past season may mean his opportunity has passed with the Edmonton Oilers. 

A losing team is the most likely team to flush underperformers (Steve Tambellini aside) and despite my own personal feelings that Hartikainen should get a full season to show what he can do, it may not be in the cards for Harski.

Bad timing.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 gcw_rocks
May 11 2013, 07:46AM
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I would love to see AV as coach for the next 3 years. I think he has what it takes to help make. The Oilers a playoff team. Might need someone to come in after him to go from playoff team to Cup winning team, but let's worry about that after we are a playoff team.

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#52 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
May 11 2013, 08:05AM
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DSF wrote:

Good grief.

He played 23 NHL games this season , scored 1G 2A 3P and was -8.

What else do you need to see?

A disinterested Ben Eager could have easily outplayed him given the same ice time.

He's 23 and can't score a lick or keep his head above water.

Hanging on to non performing players is an Oilers curse.

Flush.

speaking of non-performing

parise koivu suter in the playoffs:

(combined) 15GP 1G 0A -18

yep, looks like they sure showed the wild have joined the NHLs elite

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#53 DrunkGuyTy
May 11 2013, 08:26AM
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Can anyone explain why their interest in Ruff and/or Vin-yo? What have they ever accomplished?

I'm being completely open-minded here. In my mind, any 'success' (neither has won a Cup) has been a result of a great roster - specifically goalies.

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#54 Gaz
May 11 2013, 08:41AM
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@cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan

Whoa. That's a brutal stat for the Wild.

Anyone want to bet the over/under on how many reasons DSF will manufacture for that epic failure of his current love interests?

My guess is that he simply abandons this thread and focuses on ripping Pajaarvi somewhere else.

That said, and the reason I was going to make a comment before reading that Wild stat, was that I am actually going to agree with ol'D. Hartikainen reads well, but nothing comes through. Cut bait. He is a pylon, folks.

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#55 madjam
May 11 2013, 08:43AM
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There appears to be 6-8 openings for next years squad . 6 new faces and perhaps 2 prospect graduates ? So who goes realistically ,and what will those upgrades look like ? Will it cost us players we would like to maintain ? Maybe 4-6 might be prospects making the jump . Our history trading is not very good in recent years , and who knows for sure if MacT. can change that trend .

Hartekainen looks like a keeper until others are bought in to replace him or one develops better in system . He has some offensive talent as shown on AHL club , but has yet to show at NHL level as yet . He is still one of our best prospects in the system and provides depth .

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#56 RexLibris
May 11 2013, 08:44AM
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@Lowetide

For what its worth, I think the Oilers' braintrust (if that is the right description for Lowe and company), as much as they may toss around the Pittsburgh/Detroit/Chicago comparisons, are of an age where they probably have those 70s Canadiens in mind as a model franchise.

That group sent away a lot of talent as a result of astounding depth.

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#57 madjam
May 11 2013, 09:03AM
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With two major acquisitions only we should expect one center for top six , as well as one defenceman for top 2 -seeing as Gagner will probably shift to wing . Now focus on bottom six for upgrades and grit as Mact. alluded to . How much is left in budget to revamp it ? Big names for bottom six seems very unlikely . Size and grit seems to be determining factor in bottom six. Hartekainen still leads the prospects in that category , and probably will be retained .

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#58 DSF
May 11 2013, 09:12AM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Always had the feeling since Anton Lander was drafted.

Marcus Naslund had a rough couple seasons early in his career with the Pittsburgh Penguins, they gave up on him and shipped him off to the Canucks where he had a stellar career.

Sortof see Anton in a similar light. Is that light a freight train about to mow me down, or do you see any possibility he gets it together soon, any hope for Lander here, you figure?

Oh, I wouldn't give up on either Lander or Hartikainen.

They both perform well in the AHL and it's possible the dime will drop for one or both.

But counting on Hartikainen getting full time employment in the NHL next season when MacT says he wants players who can produce offence doesn't seem likely.

We'll see.

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#59 DSF
May 11 2013, 09:14AM
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cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan wrote:

speaking of non-performing

parise koivu suter in the playoffs:

(combined) 15GP 1G 0A -18

yep, looks like they sure showed the wild have joined the NHLs elite

It's a work in progress.

You can bet that Fletcher's not done yet.

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#60 Gaz
May 11 2013, 09:17AM
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@madjam

You're right, he probably will be retained, but basically because there's no alternative.

As an AHL player who can continue to be seasoned down there, he's a fine player to have on the roster. As an NHL player, he is ineffective and ultimately useless. In time, if (big IF) the Oilers play like Detroit and make their prospects grind it out in the AHL, he may translate to something useful at the NHL level.

I would still cut bait. He strikes me as one of the types of players that are available off "the scrap heap" that DSF lovingly refers to every year. Big body, bit of grease, no offense, own-zone firedrill.

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#61 Czar
May 11 2013, 09:42AM
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Kate Upton is a goddess!

I wouldn't mind seeing Hartikainen as part of a package to aquire a top D-man or some offensive help as well.His numbers,unlike Kate,are unimpressive to say the least.

"Teemu Hartikainen has played about 595 minutes of even strength NHL hockey over three seasons and is 4-4-8 during that time." That's brutal!

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#62 Johe
May 11 2013, 10:07AM
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DSF wrote:

Oh, I wouldn't give up on either Lander or Hartikainen.

They both perform well in the AHL and it's possible the dime will drop for one or both.

But counting on Hartikainen getting full time employment in the NHL next season when MacT says he wants players who can produce offence doesn't seem likely.

We'll see.

This is a very reasonable post, DSF! This can lead to further discussion, and not an argument. Good job!

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#63 Mitch
May 11 2013, 10:50AM
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Hartikainen, Lander, Paajarvi none of them have enough jam in there game to warrant needing to be on this roster next year. In yr 4 of Lowe's 8 yr rebuild you need to make the playoffs(but there is no need to count the yrs job security is a none issue) that is why Mac T has mentioned bold moves.

It will even become increasingly tougher to make the playoffs next year playing in the new Pacific division. The oilers have the world class skill although it is very young, what needs to be acquired now is the grit and depth that go towards the second and third lines and 2 really good dmen.

The real question is how long does a team wait on players to develop and understanding the mix isn't correct if we keep most of the current roster around we will be a minimum 2 more yrs before we see the playoffs.

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#64 Spydyr
May 11 2013, 11:34AM
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DSF wrote:

It's a work in progress.

You can bet that Fletcher's not done yet.

Right work in progress.Only 58 more playoff home games in the next nine years.

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#65 madjam
May 11 2013, 11:37AM
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Czar wrote:

Kate Upton is a goddess!

I wouldn't mind seeing Hartikainen as part of a package to aquire a top D-man or some offensive help as well.His numbers,unlike Kate,are unimpressive to say the least.

"Teemu Hartikainen has played about 595 minutes of even strength NHL hockey over three seasons and is 4-4-8 during that time." That's brutal!

His time works out to less than 10games = 600 minutes . Not bad for a 3-4th liner to have 8 points in that limited callup position . Certainly not brutal by any standard . If you want to cut players of this caliber loose, then your going to have to cut almost entire Ahl club that is even worse than you claim him to be .

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#66 DSF
May 11 2013, 12:28PM
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madjam wrote:

His time works out to less than 10games = 600 minutes . Not bad for a 3-4th liner to have 8 points in that limited callup position . Certainly not brutal by any standard . If you want to cut players of this caliber loose, then your going to have to cut almost entire Ahl club that is even worse than you claim him to be .

A 3rd line player wouldn't normally play more than 10 minutes per game so 595 minutes actually translates to about 60 games.

Since Hartikainen doesn't even play that much, he has officially appeared in 52 NHL games in his career.

13 points in 52 games isn't very impressive.

Expressed more fairly as P/60...

For all forwards who played in a minimum of 20 NHL games this past season, (395 players) Hartikainen finished 392nd in P/60 5V5.

Only 3 players were worse...and all of them were knuckle dragging enforcers, Brandon Bollig, Zenon Konopka and Krys Barch.

That's pretty much the definition of "brutal".

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#67 nunyour
May 11 2013, 01:05PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I think the most likely members of the bottom 6F to return are Horcoff, Smyth and Paajarvi (if were counting Paajarvi as bottom 6 which seems reasonable).

So Hartikainen lines up as a 4line possibility, but Mike Brown is also in the mix and the new GM is going to make some moves.

Too soon to tell, but a stronger run in the NHL would have made his position stronger. Hartikainen is having a nice AHL playoffs btw.

I can see Smyth and Horcoff,but then it must be Brown imo,the oilers must ice a tougher line up and not leave it all up to Brown.Paajarvi and Hartikainen add no toughness.

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#68 Rocknrolla
May 11 2013, 02:56PM
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Czar wrote:

Kate Upton is a goddess!

I wouldn't mind seeing Hartikainen as part of a package to aquire a top D-man or some offensive help as well.His numbers,unlike Kate,are unimpressive to say the least.

"Teemu Hartikainen has played about 595 minutes of even strength NHL hockey over three seasons and is 4-4-8 during that time." That's brutal!

For all you Kate upton fans...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCUnWIs88CQ

You are very welcome in advance.

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#69 madjam
May 11 2013, 03:32PM
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Stats indicate only Horcoff and an improving Paajarvi should remain on bottom 6 . The rest all need upgrading in one form or another , and have become non factors offensively at least . Smyth a big drop this last season , and Brown was only effective as a fighter . Yes , even Hartekainen needs to be upgraded . Hartekainen ,however , is still improving/developing and will probably remain in system . That's 4 spots open for veteran newbies that match MacT.'s shopping wish list . Who might that 4 be is the question ?

Rajala unlikely to unseed top six (same type players on the smaller side ) and thus should be a good bargaining chip .His improvement is vast , but we have maybe too many of that type already . OMark and Reddox another group that fits that same category . Put them together and see what we can get .

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#70 madjam
May 11 2013, 03:47PM
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Prognosis : HEMSKY THE KEY : If we can upgrade on Hemsky with a forward that more fits the MacT. wish list - then we move forward . I'm a fan of Hemsky , but we have to do better unfortuneately .

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#71 Dub t
May 11 2013, 04:19PM
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DSF wrote:

A 3rd line player wouldn't normally play more than 10 minutes per game so 595 minutes actually translates to about 60 games.

Since Hartikainen doesn't even play that much, he has officially appeared in 52 NHL games in his career.

13 points in 52 games isn't very impressive.

Expressed more fairly as P/60...

For all forwards who played in a minimum of 20 NHL games this past season, (395 players) Hartikainen finished 392nd in P/60 5V5.

Only 3 players were worse...and all of them were knuckle dragging enforcers, Brandon Bollig, Zenon Konopka and Krys Barch.

That's pretty much the definition of "brutal".

Can you or someone else explain p/60 5v5 and what it represents. Thanks in advance! Trying to get a better grasp on advanced stats.

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#72 madjam
May 11 2013, 05:07PM
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DSF wrote:

A 3rd line player wouldn't normally play more than 10 minutes per game so 595 minutes actually translates to about 60 games.

Since Hartikainen doesn't even play that much, he has officially appeared in 52 NHL games in his career.

13 points in 52 games isn't very impressive.

Expressed more fairly as P/60...

For all forwards who played in a minimum of 20 NHL games this past season, (395 players) Hartikainen finished 392nd in P/60 5V5.

Only 3 players were worse...and all of them were knuckle dragging enforcers, Brandon Bollig, Zenon Konopka and Krys Barch.

That's pretty much the definition of "brutal".

Your putting to much emphasis on stats and not enough on the human element, with whom and circumstances they were obtained , and other factors not supported by facts of an improving young talent . Projections are underterminable at his stage . He may get worse or better . Datsyk and Zetterburgs early stats were not great . Nor was Messiers early ones as I recall with several others in that group .

Your own brain , just by watching is often far supreme to a lot of stats . Many are file 13's -garbage bins , and shelf life fluctuating wildly game to game and situations making them not reliable enough .

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#73 madjam
May 11 2013, 05:38PM
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Should Oilers try for center B.Sutter in bottom six ? Good in faceoffs , grit , offence and defence , etc . and carries a reasonable $2.05M contract . What might it take in trade scenario ?

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#74 Oiler Al
May 11 2013, 05:42PM
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Dub t wrote:

Can you or someone else explain p/60 5v5 and what it represents. Thanks in advance! Trying to get a better grasp on advanced stats.

Dub t:

p/60 5v5 ... means for every 60 minutes of play at 5 on 5 even strength .

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#75 DSF
May 11 2013, 06:36PM
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Dub t wrote:

Can you or someone else explain p/60 5v5 and what it represents. Thanks in advance! Trying to get a better grasp on advanced stats.

Just an indication of how a player performed at even strength.

If you stick a fat kid in front of the goal on the PP, he'll pick up some points just with pucks bouncing off his head and arse.

So 5V5 is a more reliable indicator.

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#76 DSF
May 11 2013, 06:39PM
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madjam wrote:

Your putting to much emphasis on stats and not enough on the human element, with whom and circumstances they were obtained , and other factors not supported by facts of an improving young talent . Projections are underterminable at his stage . He may get worse or better . Datsyk and Zetterburgs early stats were not great . Nor was Messiers early ones as I recall with several others in that group .

Your own brain , just by watching is often far supreme to a lot of stats . Many are file 13's -garbage bins , and shelf life fluctuating wildly game to game and situations making them not reliable enough .

Results matter.

In 23 games played, Hartikainen scored ZERO points at even strength.

ZERO.

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#77 Fresh Mess
May 11 2013, 11:25PM
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The organization patiently developed him in the minors and have given him numerous opportunities to show his stuff in the NHL.

Despite getting more chances than most middling prospects ever do, he has shown absolutely nothing. Time to move on.

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#78 Darrell
May 12 2013, 02:36AM
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DSF wrote:

It's a work in progress.

You can bet that Fletcher's not done yet.

How about you admit both Vancouver and your beloved Wild crapped the bed ?

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#79 NewAgeSys
May 12 2013, 04:25AM
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Who says Rajala cant take a top 6 spot?

One of the reasons we suck so badly is that all forms of competative dynamics have been removed from the teams developmentel system.

Lets really be honest about who is outperforming whom,lets put some pressure back into the equation before we are in NHL games with real opponents.Why cant Hall or Ebbs or Nuge be replaced by an up and comer?I dont see why not,if things are based on competition is should be cut and dried.A team that posesses an adequate systemic influence should see players coming from seemingly out of nowhere and making the team,knocking others out of position with better system understanding and less mistakes overall.System knowledge and ability should be trumping skillsets about now in the top and bottom six.

Half the deadbeats the team carried last year were not up to par,it is hard to believe we couldnt have gotten more out of farm guys getting their first tastes of the NHL.

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#80 Czar
May 12 2013, 11:07AM
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@madjam

I don't want to cut him loose and agree he's one of the few prospects with any real value, stats aside, because of his size and potential.I said "I wouldn't mind seeing Hartikainen as part of a package to aquire a top D-man or some offensive help as well." JW asked "will Harski provide enough offense?" I sure HOPE so but it doesn't look promising as his even strength scoring is brutal.

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#81 Czar
May 12 2013, 11:26AM
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@Rocknrolla

Now that IS impressive!

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#82 Rama Lama
May 12 2013, 11:44AM
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If a team decides to put together a third and fourth line, it should be done on the basis of required skills and job description.

Our basis of a third and fourth line seems to be which ever players can't play in the top six get moved down to the third and fourth lines........such as Horcoff, Smyth, PRV and so on.

Time to get serious about putting together lines based on job description.

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