Roberto Luongo?

Jonathan Willis
May 25 2013 01:35PM

If the Edmonton Oilers aren’t thrilled with Devan Dubnyk’s performance as a starting goaltender, does it make sense for the club to pursue Vancouver Canucks starter Roberto Luongo?

The Pros

Roberto Luongo is an excellent goaltender. Over both the last three and the last five seasons he has averaged a 0.930 even-strength save percentage, which represents elite level performance – it’s better than any other Canadian goaltender, and slightly better than Henrik Lundqvist (the gold standard) over the last five years, slightly worse over the last three. Luongo is a top-flight starting goalie.

Because of his contract, the trade cost for Roberto Luongo would likely be low. With the salary cap falling, and the potential for multiple starting-calibre goalies on the market this year (Ryan Miller, Mike Smith, Marc-Andre Fleury, etc.), Vancouver will be in quite a bind if they cannot move Luongo. It’s impossible to know, but this feels like a situation where a package centered around Ales Hemsky might get the job done – the cap hits are comparable, and while Hemsky isn’t a perfect player he would add some badly needed secondary offensive support behind the Sedin line.

Moving Hemsky for Luongo would also free the Oilers up to use Devan Dubnyk as a trade chip. Dubnyk is an average-ish NHL starter on an affordable deal ($3.5 million for one more season); to the right team he would likely have more value than Hemsky. A deal like this would allow the Oilers to upgrade their goaltender while upgrading their principle trade chip at the same time.

In the short-term, this hypothetical scenario seems both plausible and favourable to the Oilers. But what about the long-term?

The Cons

Firstly: Luongo has a no-trade clause. He has emphasized time and again that his chief goal is simply to be a starter, so maybe he waives it because he’s low on options and doesn’t want to get stuck fighting with Cory Schneider for playing time again. On the other hand, he’s spent most of his career in warmer places; it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that he would refuse to go to Edmonton.

Luongo just turned 34 years old; he’s in the wrong end of his career and his performance is going to decline. He might start slowing down in two years, or it might take five, but at some point in that window he will likely need to be replaced.

The contract: Luongo is signed for the next nine seasons. For the sake of argument, let’s assume he retires as soon as the dollars start dipping, in the summer of 2018 (the far end of the two-to-five year window mentioned in the last paragraph). If that happened, any cap benefit accrued would count against the clubs that gained it for the remaining four years of his contract. The “cap benefit” is the difference between dollars paid and cap hit in those seasons, with that benefit divided equally over the remaining years. In this scenario, both the Oilers and Canucks would be on the hook for penalties over the four seasons following Luongo’s retirement, as shown here:

“Benefit” is calculated simply as dollars paid minus cap hit; with a 2018 retirement the Oilers would be staring at a $1.73 million cap hit penalty from 2018-19 until 2021-22. That’s a non-trivial penalty, but with the salary cap likely to be significantly higher by then, it’s also one the Oilers could likely afford to sustain.

The Verdict

In the long-term, the chief fear is that Luongo’s performance falls off a cliff two years from now and that he stubbornly refuses to retire because he’s still getting paid. If he continues to play well, he has a modest cap hit and the penalty for his eventual retirement is survivable. If he falls apart two years from now and retires, the Oilers will need a new starter but they’ll have gained a small cap benefit that will turn into a tiny cap penalty over the following seven years (less than $400,000 per season). But, if he falls apart and then refuses to retire, the Oilers would be in serious trouble.

How great a risk is it? Really it depends on the individual. Here’s a (subjective) look at some of the oldest goaltenders in recent memory, and when their performance slipped:

Sometimes it’s a straight line drop off a cliff (Dominik Hasek), sometimes it’s a few years of ups and downs with a generally decreasing performance (Martin Brodeur) and sometimes the goalie retires at the top of his game (Patrick Roy). I’d guess that Luongo probably has three to four more years as an above-average NHL starter left in him, and then another year or two where he can still play but isn’t what he was.

Streakcred

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Recently around the Nation Network

Over at NHLNumbers, Rex Libris asks Who Are The Edmonton Oilers Best Scouts? Here's how he describes his process:

I am looking at the Oilers’ prospects taken between 2008 and 2012, the Stu MacGregor era, grouping them according to region drafted, and then grading them based on a variety of rankings including Lowetide’s top 20s, Hockey’s Future, Corey Pronman at Hockey Prospectus and giving weight to LT’s oft-cited preference for players with a “wide range of skills”. In some cases players who have made the jump to the AHL/ECHL may be ranked ahead of those still playing junior and those who have signed professional deals are ahead of those still unsigned.

 Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some of my other pieces here:

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 yawto
May 25 2013, 01:38PM
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Depending on the deal it could be the fist bold move mact makes. Would he try get vigneault as well, we just turned our other manager who came from that organization.

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#2 Bigfan
May 25 2013, 01:39PM
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Let me be the fist to say 'NO'.

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#3 Smokey
May 25 2013, 01:41PM
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Last year I would of done Hotcoff for Luongo. We don't want that albatros. Its a bad contract you stay far away from. Can we have no more Luongo articals please. And why would we help Vancouver and then givre a useful player???

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#4 Oil4Life
May 25 2013, 01:46PM
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no no no. dont trade dubby. and dont pick up lou he's a gret goalie. but with some d-fence i think dub could be just as good.

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#5 wbarclay
May 25 2013, 01:54PM
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Dubnyk is going to make a fine starter. get him some real net clearing defense. MacT is not impressed, well he never impressed me as a player or coach and probably from what I read won't as a GM. If they really want to get better Start with dumping Lowe and MacT. The rest comes easy.

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#6 Jackson
May 25 2013, 01:55PM
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Would be funny if Oilers signed AV as the head coach of the Oilers. Lou

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#7 Jackson
May 25 2013, 01:59PM
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Most starting goalies peak in their mid to late twenties. Lou is 34 yrs old he is past his prime, don't get me wrong still a good goalie but if you are going to trade for him, you have to take that into account.

How many starting goalies ate there in the NHL 34 yrs old and older and are effective.

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#8 Chris.
May 25 2013, 02:02PM
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Luongo for Captain! ;)

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#9 jeanshorts
May 25 2013, 02:06PM
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The fact that he could easily fall of the cliff performance wise any day now combined with theoretically sending over an incredibly useful player to the Canucks that YOU KNOW would bite us in the ass for years makes me want to immediately dismiss this idea.

HOWEVA the reaction this would cause on the internet would be the single greatest thing ever, so now I don't know what to think.

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#10 DSF
May 25 2013, 02:12PM
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People tend to forget that Luongo's contract has two out clauses built into it.

"The first comes five years into the extension. If Luongo isn’t pleased with where the team is at, or where it’s heading, he can then trigger a trade. The out clause is timed for what should be an organizational crossroads — one year after the Sedins’ current long-term deal is up. The Canucks have agreed to accommodate the request by moving Luongo at that point."

"Two years later, after the contract extension’s seventh year, the Canucks have a reciprocal clause. If they want to go in another direction, they will have an opportunity to move Luongo despite his no-trade clause.

Luongo would be 38 years old. But, if he’s still playing at an elite level, should remain an intriguing trading chip. At that point of the deal Luongo would have five years left and he would be owed just $13.714 million. "

"If Luongo wanted to keep playing into his twilight years, and the team wanted to move on, the more likely scenario would see the Canucks buy out Luongo’s contract.

Because his contract is heavily front-loaded, a buyout would provide a lot of relief after eight years: The Canucks would have paid $57-million to Luongo at that point, leaving just $7 million over the remaining four years. With a buyout amount of $4.7-million (two thirds of $7 million) spread over twice the remaining length of the 2-year deal, the Canucks would owe just $587,000 a year. "

Obviously, the new CBA changes the penalties accruable at the end of the deal but, as JW says, a rising cap in those years makes the penalty very affordable.

I think the only gamble here is whether or not Luongo will continue to perform at a high level for the next four seasons.

I don't think that's a bad bet.

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#11 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
May 25 2013, 02:12PM
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As much as I feel he would help the situation here. The Canucks are caught between a rock and a hard place on this. Let Vancouver use a compliance buy out on Roberto, sever that contract somehow. His new club could get him on decent contract then.

Not even sure if the Canucks will move Luongo, Schnieder wasn't really all that impressive down the stretch. Maybe they're better off to move Cory instead. Vancouver and Edmonton are similar markets. The NHL is the only game in town and the athletes are forced to live in a frying pan as far as public opinion goes. He's far better off in a city where they also have an NFL and MLB team, where nobody gives a ship about hockey.

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#12 striker777
May 25 2013, 02:16PM
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Hemsky for Luongo? For the last time, the only way Luongo gets moved is if they waive him.

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#13 #ThereGoesTheOilers
May 25 2013, 02:17PM
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Living in BC, I relish how sweet such a trade would be. For all his criticisms, Luongo is a damn fine goaltender. I would like nothing more than to point out to my neighbours how Gillis threw one of their best players under the bus just in time for us to snatch him up. Thank you for this amusing debacle Vancouver. We'll get the last laugh and we'll share it with ol Lubongo.

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#14 WhattaMike
May 25 2013, 02:19PM
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First, ....it is the wrong contract for the Oilers. Second,.....Dubnyk's 26 yrs old now and his season to season performance keeps climbing upwards/progressively,...while Luongo is on his way to 35 yrs old and has but a very few years left for sure.

The best deal is to go for a few other younger goaltenders with even better term contracts/are up for new contracts, etc. Those start being Mike Smith, Khudobin from Boston, maybe Emery, etc.

The Oilers have two very important draft picks to make this year....one for a future top 2nd line centre (Barkov, Monahan, Lindholm, even Horvat) and a goalie to go up with Roy and Bunz,...(Fucale, Comrie, Jarry, Juuse Saros, or Ebbe Sionas).

Trading Hemsky or Gagner, or Horcoff.... makes more sense when, in a smart deal package,the Oilers are going for established centre, power wingers, or a top two defencemen.

The Oilers have future draft round picks to deal with, and several strong prospects to deal with also, including Omark, Rajala, Lander, Hartikainen, Fedun, Gernat, Musil, etc)

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#15 Oiler Al
May 25 2013, 02:20PM
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NO NO No... terrible contract no matter how you slice and dice!. Besides he is 34... only has maybe 3 years left... also has always been shakey in the play offs.

If you are going to deal Hemsky to Vancouver, go for one of their D Men. Beiksa, Edler, or Hamhius... they need to shed some Cap.

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#16 DSF
May 25 2013, 02:25PM
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Jackson wrote:

Most starting goalies peak in their mid to late twenties. Lou is 34 yrs old he is past his prime, don't get me wrong still a good goalie but if you are going to trade for him, you have to take that into account.

How many starting goalies ate there in the NHL 34 yrs old and older and are effective.

Goaltenders in their 30's performing at a high level:

Craig Anderson - 32 .941

Henrik Lundqvist - 31 .926

Ray Emery - 30 .922

Viktor Fasth - 30 .921

Thomas Vokoun - 36 .919

Martin Biron - 35 .917

Jonas Hiller - .913

Evgeni Nabokov - 37 .910

Pekka Rinne - 30 .910

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#17 NewAgeSys
May 25 2013, 02:33PM
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Hemsky,Horcoff and Hordichuck for Louongo,and the Nucks become a better team instantly,and much tougher as well with Hordichuck.

Louongo wants to win man,lets get real,he has demons to vanquish at this point in his career.He would love nothing more than to step onto a team as set up as we are to dominate immediatly.He is well aware as is the entire NHL how close the Oilers are to breaking out in a huge way.If Louongo comes here he will trigger a prime d-man to demand a trade here as well because that is all we need to become immediate contenders.

We already have the offense as inconsistant as it is to win enough games with Louongo in net to make the playoffs,he would have kept us in it this year in my opinion.

The thing is this,once we iron out some systemic wrinkles,Dubby will look even better than he has,so we need to be very carefull that we dont jump the gun and screw with his head.Reality bites and no one in their right minds would turn Luongo away for Dubby at this stage of the game,the question is if Dubby is willing to play second fiddle for another three years?And then have a crack at the starters job,smart money says Louongo gets hurt a few times over 3 years and also takes Dubby into the playoffs finally to let him taste the pressure.Might be a reasonable dynamic for Dubby to accept honestly.I have never seen Dubby shrink from a challenge,he is a rock and will defend his opportunitys with passon and hard work.Louongo doesnt intimidate a man like that he would motivate him if anything.

Its so hard to make calls on player aquisitions when you dont know the systemic intent you will be projecting,there are many variables to consider long term that are related to this influence directly and terminally.Just our system choice could exclude or include Louongo based on specific physical and mechanical stylistic tendancies.The same rule applies to defensemen and forwards if you reject statistical inputs and consider dynamic impact of consistantly executed systemic influences.It is fun to speculate but impossible to put any money down on these types of educated guesses.

We could use Louongo and there have been talks for a long time.The reality is that we represent an opportunity for a very good Goaltender to take a starting job and lead a very talented team into the playoffs bang on in the middle of his prime playing years,this is a rare opportunity for Louongo not for the Oilers, the Nucks are re-tooling now,Roberto will need to be willing to make some serious concessions to the Oilers if he hopes to catch a ride on this runaway train baby,ditch that elitist no trade clause BS,lose the attitude,take a traditional Goaltenders spot in the room,shaddup and relax and learn to be yourself and simply be a good teammate and role model,tell some dam jokes you are a funny guy when the bullcrap is gone,no pressure and no room to be melodramatic,just room to be a valuable piece of a Stanley Cup winning team.

I dont think Roberto has ever been in a position to play relaxed, I believe he was mismanaged for the bulk of his career and his personality wasnt respected enough by the teams he played on,he was put in the wrong positions at the wrong times.He should have been muzzled for his own development early in his career and he wasnt policed properly,so he evolved to carry to much pressure internally and never really relaxed out there as much as he could have over the years.Ralph likes to pull tenders who arent on their games and I like that habit,Louie would be in a totally new world with Mac-T and Ralph.I am thinking Mac-T is the mentor a man like Luongo requires at this point in his career.

I like the dynamic if Louie is willing to become a new man and new type of teammate,I see a lot of adjustment he must make to fit in here right now,he definately isnt a primadonna on this roster he has nothing to prove here,we are LOADED with superstar kids and no one will even notice him here,this isnt Vancouver with the sedins on the downward trend being the catalyst of the team,this is the Edmonton Oilers and there are multiple catalysts here that are just beginning their careers.This is a career opportunity for the right man,one worth making long term concessions to lock up.No one probably wants to see Luongo here than the man himself.

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#18 Olderthendirt
May 25 2013, 02:36PM
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NO!!!

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#19 Jackson
May 25 2013, 02:45PM
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@DSF

I did say 34 and older and starting goaltenders.

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#20 admiralmark
May 25 2013, 02:48PM
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No No No... oh and one more thing NO!

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#21 DSF
May 25 2013, 02:50PM
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Jackson wrote:

I did say 34 and older and starting goaltenders.

I'm aware of that.

But there isn't a magic date or age when a goaltender goes into decline.

For example, would you pass on Craig Anderson because he's going to be 34 in less than 2 years?

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#22 Bryan in SK
May 25 2013, 03:05PM
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Luuuuuuuuuuuuuu? Noooooooooooooooo!

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#23 Vin cheese
May 25 2013, 03:20PM
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I never would have seen myself saying this until two years ago, but Luongo has grown on me--even to the point where I think he'd be a great addition to the Oilers.

The 'Nucks won't have any interest in Hemsky, but a trade centred around Dubnyk might be doable--Vancouver needs to she'd salary and get younger.......

Perhaps PRV, Dubnyk, and a 2014 pick could get the job done. Vancouver dumps a contract, gets younger, and gets a serviceable 3rd liner in this trade. This scenario makes both teams better immediately. Throw in a prospect, Peckham, or whatever if needed.

The way Luongo has handled himself over the last couple years in Vancouver has been admirable. He wears his heart on his sleeve and wouldn't be a train wreck (a la bryz) to the kids. Slowly, I've become a fan.

The best part about this trade is that Crawford might just be a flash-in-the-pan goalie. I could see his numbers dipping significantly after taking over. With DD as a back-up, the two goalie circus come right back to Vancouver. Furthermore, I think we'd get Luongo's best game every time those Canucks meet up with us!

DD is not the answer for the Oilers going forward--another reason I love this trade. Granted,, his numbers are good; however, he can't keep the team ahead in a close game to save his life. When everything is on the line, DD becomes shakey, we want the opposite. Someone clutch in the stretch that the team can keep pressing is needed. This trade would make Edmonton a top-4 D-Man away from a playoff berth next year.

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#24 John Chambers
May 25 2013, 03:32PM
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It begs the question - why did they give Dubnyk $3.5 M, and why was he only signed for two years?

If he has a strong season and the Oilers make the playoffs, Dubby could command $5M as a UFA, where as I'm sure a 4-year deal for $12 - $14M would've been attractive to the Dubnyk camp last summer.

Petry & Halls contracts were very enlightened, while Gagner and Dubnyk's were terribly shortsighted.

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#25 John Chambers
May 25 2013, 03:39PM
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@Vin cheese

Canucks fan?

Mike Gillis would probably take a package of Ben Eager and Eric Belanger for Luongo.

But I agree - the guy was Canada's Gold Medal tender, has sustained strong performance, and has supressed his ego for the benefit of the team. Given that a team could reasonably be out from under the contract in 4-5 years I'd say the price was right.

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#26 Jimmer
May 25 2013, 03:48PM
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Cart before the horse!

Step 1 get an actual NHL D-Core

Step 2 then make a call on Dubby and our netminding situation

Step 3 see step 1 & 2

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#27 OilersAreAwesome14
May 25 2013, 04:00PM
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Here's the goalies I would like the Oilers to go after this off-season. 1.) Mike Smith- Dubnyk and Smith tandem=AWESOME! 2.) Anton Khudobin-Decent backup goalie. Luongo-He's old and his contract doesn't look good. Miller-He's going to cost alot Fleury- Just go look at his performance in the playoffs last 2 years.

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#28 madjam
May 25 2013, 04:07PM
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I'm not sold a diminishing Luongo (Bubba Louie) is any better than Dubbie any more , nor Schneider or Kipper for that matter .

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#29 flyin ryan
May 25 2013, 04:19PM
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I 'Pray' if a deal was to be done Bobby Lou WOULDN'T waive his no trade. I don't want anything to do with him as an Oiler...NONE!!

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#30 Hallisimo
May 25 2013, 04:23PM
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For the love of god will people please stop trying to trade PRV, the guy has size, top end speed and is just starting to come into his own. He should be considered one of the untouchables unless we absolutely steal someone in a trade. There is a reason he is the one player everyone wants instead of samwise or no heart hemsky. Prv is on the right path to become that power forward we have been trying to get, if we trade him now in 2-3 years we will all be wishing he was a part of this young core.

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#31 T__Bone88
May 25 2013, 05:01PM
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Crazy thought but if the Oilers swapped Dubnyk for Brandon Sutter if it means taking back Fleury in exchange, would either team do that? Fleury I think is on the outs this offseason and probably would be bought out in order to have some cap space for the season after to resign Malkin and Letang.

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#32 Smokey
May 25 2013, 05:07PM
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NewAgeSys wrote:

Hemsky,Horcoff and Hordichuck for Louongo,and the Nucks become a better team instantly,and much tougher as well with Hordichuck.

Louongo wants to win man,lets get real,he has demons to vanquish at this point in his career.He would love nothing more than to step onto a team as set up as we are to dominate immediatly.He is well aware as is the entire NHL how close the Oilers are to breaking out in a huge way.If Louongo comes here he will trigger a prime d-man to demand a trade here as well because that is all we need to become immediate contenders.

We already have the offense as inconsistant as it is to win enough games with Louongo in net to make the playoffs,he would have kept us in it this year in my opinion.

The thing is this,once we iron out some systemic wrinkles,Dubby will look even better than he has,so we need to be very carefull that we dont jump the gun and screw with his head.Reality bites and no one in their right minds would turn Luongo away for Dubby at this stage of the game,the question is if Dubby is willing to play second fiddle for another three years?And then have a crack at the starters job,smart money says Louongo gets hurt a few times over 3 years and also takes Dubby into the playoffs finally to let him taste the pressure.Might be a reasonable dynamic for Dubby to accept honestly.I have never seen Dubby shrink from a challenge,he is a rock and will defend his opportunitys with passon and hard work.Louongo doesnt intimidate a man like that he would motivate him if anything.

Its so hard to make calls on player aquisitions when you dont know the systemic intent you will be projecting,there are many variables to consider long term that are related to this influence directly and terminally.Just our system choice could exclude or include Louongo based on specific physical and mechanical stylistic tendancies.The same rule applies to defensemen and forwards if you reject statistical inputs and consider dynamic impact of consistantly executed systemic influences.It is fun to speculate but impossible to put any money down on these types of educated guesses.

We could use Louongo and there have been talks for a long time.The reality is that we represent an opportunity for a very good Goaltender to take a starting job and lead a very talented team into the playoffs bang on in the middle of his prime playing years,this is a rare opportunity for Louongo not for the Oilers, the Nucks are re-tooling now,Roberto will need to be willing to make some serious concessions to the Oilers if he hopes to catch a ride on this runaway train baby,ditch that elitist no trade clause BS,lose the attitude,take a traditional Goaltenders spot in the room,shaddup and relax and learn to be yourself and simply be a good teammate and role model,tell some dam jokes you are a funny guy when the bullcrap is gone,no pressure and no room to be melodramatic,just room to be a valuable piece of a Stanley Cup winning team.

I dont think Roberto has ever been in a position to play relaxed, I believe he was mismanaged for the bulk of his career and his personality wasnt respected enough by the teams he played on,he was put in the wrong positions at the wrong times.He should have been muzzled for his own development early in his career and he wasnt policed properly,so he evolved to carry to much pressure internally and never really relaxed out there as much as he could have over the years.Ralph likes to pull tenders who arent on their games and I like that habit,Louie would be in a totally new world with Mac-T and Ralph.I am thinking Mac-T is the mentor a man like Luongo requires at this point in his career.

I like the dynamic if Louie is willing to become a new man and new type of teammate,I see a lot of adjustment he must make to fit in here right now,he definately isnt a primadonna on this roster he has nothing to prove here,we are LOADED with superstar kids and no one will even notice him here,this isnt Vancouver with the sedins on the downward trend being the catalyst of the team,this is the Edmonton Oilers and there are multiple catalysts here that are just beginning their careers.This is a career opportunity for the right man,one worth making long term concessions to lock up.No one probably wants to see Luongo here than the man himself.

I read the first paragraph only. Why the Hell are we talking about trading any decent asset for him. He's 2 years away from his last decent season, and any trade that saves the Canucks from impending destruction under the cap is assinine. I would not give up Horcoff for him. Many of us don't want to entertain this stupidity because his contract is a killer and his perfornance doesn't warrant us wanting to married to such an albatros. Let the Canucks suffer, and continue their slide to mediocrity, please.... I for one am enjoying the Luongo reality saga. Another couple years of watching this drama and then watching Gillis eat his contract is good TV.

Secondly, many of think you have some decent things to say. But be concise, because it comes off as dribble because your trying to hard to make a point. Your point would be better with less words. I am no writer myself, my thoughts cone out to fast, but for the life me I can barely make it through your diatribes.

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#33 jonny94
May 25 2013, 05:12PM
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@Smokey

Amen. I skip over NewAge comments its almost longer then the blog itself at times. Surely he can get his point across in one paragraph.

As for Luongo, pass. Great goalie but I'd rather MacT bring in younger goalies to challenge Dubnyk. I agree with the comments about having a better D corps in front of Dubnyk will equal better goalie statistics.

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#34 Smokey
May 25 2013, 05:14PM
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John Chambers wrote:

It begs the question - why did they give Dubnyk $3.5 M, and why was he only signed for two years?

If he has a strong season and the Oilers make the playoffs, Dubby could command $5M as a UFA, where as I'm sure a 4-year deal for $12 - $14M would've been attractive to the Dubnyk camp last summer.

Petry & Halls contracts were very enlightened, while Gagner and Dubnyk's were terribly shortsighted.

He was signed cause

A)We needed a starting goalie B)And it was a good contract in case you want to move him. C)He's a actually asset to the organzition that has value D)It gives the Oilers 2 extra years of free agency.

Dollar and term were reasonable. He earned his contract this season, whether he deserved it before was debatable.

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#35 Josh Oiler
May 25 2013, 05:23PM
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I THINK ANY TEAM STUPID ENOUGH TO TAKE THAT CONTRACT DESERVES TO SINK TO 30th PLACE IN THE NHL.

IM NOT HAPPY UNTIL VANCOUVER OWNER FIRES MIKE GILLIS FOR SUCH A RIDICULOUS CONTRACT AND THE MISMANAGEMENT OF THE WHOLE SITUATION.

BOBBY LOU NEVER WON A CUP.

IN FACT BOBBY LOU DISAPEARS IN THE PLAYOFF!!!

LET THEM KEEP BOBBY LOU AND HAPPILY WATCH THEIR GRADUAL DEGRESSION TO BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE.. IN 2 YEARS THEY'll BE WHERE THE OILERS WERE IN 2009. - REBUILDING!!

LETS FIRE STU "MAGNIFICENT BASTARD" McGREGOR! For not replenishing our system or drafting Malcolm Subban!

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#36 TV6
May 25 2013, 05:31PM
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@Smokey

DD is the answer in 1 blog, yet now he is the question in the next 1..?

Interesting dynamic...

But in saying that... PASS on Soccer~Lou.

Why get anywhere near that SPC while you are a rebuilding Club..?

PASS...

x6

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#37 Taylor Gang
May 25 2013, 05:43PM
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That would be such a huge step backwards. My god, talk about short sightedness *shakes head in disappointment*

Sure, it would be great for the first two years, then what? We're stuck with another albatross like Horcoff's. the odds of his play dropping off significantly long before the contract is up is almost guaranteed. What separates a good GM from a bad one is one that can look a roster move and decide if it's worth it in the long run.

No thanks

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#38 Smokey
May 25 2013, 05:55PM
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TV6 wrote:

DD is the answer in 1 blog, yet now he is the question in the next 1..?

Interesting dynamic...

But in saying that... PASS on Soccer~Lou.

Why get anywhere near that SPC while you are a rebuilding Club..?

PASS...

x6

I think u want me to clarify? I think Dubby's an slightly above average goalie who needs to be challenged. Is Luongo better? Numbers the last 2 years and playing status say no, however history and pedigree say yes.

I.agree that Dubby's not elite, but I think of him like Hiller, Howard, Elliotte, Halak, etc good goalies. Put Dubby in St. Louis and his save percentage would be .930 or better. Dubby's question marks come from the fact he lets in soft goals once in a while, and does not steal you alot of games. I think the Oilers would better served with goaltending model with a 1 and 1a system with a 45-35 game split.

Bring in Lou, your paying for the old Lou playing 65 games and a .925 average. If he can't do that with what DSF calls the best defence in the NHL, hows he doing that in Edmonton. Don't want to see us paying 5.5 for 9 years for average to below average goaltending.

Goaltending needs to be better, but a solid backup who is is not a bandaid would go a ways to helping Dubby.

Saving grace is Lou and his wife want none of Edmonton. Its the one time being the ugly duckling city may save our ass. Hopefully he doesn't get the Heatley video and entorange of misfits.

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#39 Naky
May 25 2013, 06:07PM
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Always felt sorry for Dubnyk in this city. No matter what he does, it's never enough. I've watched most of the games played this year and I'll tell you aside from one or two games, Dubnyk wasn't the problem on most of those nights. If nothing else, he was the reason why games were kept as close as they were and always gave them a chance to win.

The expectations from fans, and now apparently MacTavish, that Dubnyk should be winning these games by himself despite the obvious massive problem the team had of 5x5 scoring all year long with a squad stacked as offensively stacked as it is is mind boggling. Couple that with the glaring deficiencies the team has had on defense for years and I'm even more flummoxed by these expectations.

MacTavish should be questioning Krueger's systems before he questions Dubnyk's play since where I stood that was more of a problem than anything else, but beyond that he should be putting a better team on the ice in front of him. Do that and I think those extra numbers you want to see improved from Dubnyk's side of things will appear all on their own.

I can't even believe that this is even an issue beyond the fact that we do need a better NHL grade backup to replace Khabby.

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#40 otter2233
May 25 2013, 06:25PM
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DSF wrote:

Goaltenders in their 30's performing at a high level:

Craig Anderson - 32 .941

Henrik Lundqvist - 31 .926

Ray Emery - 30 .922

Viktor Fasth - 30 .921

Thomas Vokoun - 36 .919

Martin Biron - 35 .917

Jonas Hiller - .913

Evgeni Nabokov - 37 .910

Pekka Rinne - 30 .910

So in a Dubnyk related article a while back you commented at how Dubnyk was merely average at best with a .921 save % this season now over half of the goalies you have listed here are under that % but are playing at a high level in your opinion... At Dubnyk's age the upside and contract are much more appealing than dealing for Luongo in my opinion

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#41 Walter Sobchak
May 25 2013, 07:11PM
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Interesting article Willis

I would do this deal if I knew it could benefit the Oilers in the long run.

If there a deal that could strengthen the Oilers position Mac-T has to look at all possibilities, the days of dithering have to be over.

**-This is just a scenario and not expecting this to happen just what thinking outside the norm.

What if you trade for Luongo, then to trade him and a package of players/prospects to Tampa Bay for Tampa’s 3rd overall pick and one of Lindback or Bishop?

The Oilers can retain some of Lou’s salary, making Lou attractive; Tampa Bay gets an elite goalie plus the Oilers 7th overall and a prospect/player’s.

The Oilers get Bishop and the third. Of course, what players would be involved is up for debate.

I only mention this because it’s right there with what Mac-T has said in some “semblance of risk”, the Oilers were after Bishop before, and Mac-T mentioning of MacKinnon- Barkov has to be taken at some face value.

Bobby Lou get's closer to home.

Whatever the cost is for the 3rd overall pick, try finding an established two way elite center out there, the cost would be horrendous, IMO this is the time to make a deal.

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#42 Racki
May 25 2013, 07:15PM
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To start, I will say I think Roberto Luongo is a very good goaltender. I think the city of Vancouver (& their media) is doing their best job to ruin this guy. But I think he's very good.

That said, there is no way in hell I would trade for Luongo so long as he has this contract. There is just too much risk involved for me. I think he's a better goaltender than a lot of people in Vancouver though.

I think the Oilers could benefit from a solid goalie like that though, but with all the debate on whether a team really needs a good goaltender these days, I think I'd look elsehwere... something a little more short term, at least.

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#43 DSF
May 25 2013, 07:16PM
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otter2233 wrote:

So in a Dubnyk related article a while back you commented at how Dubnyk was merely average at best with a .921 save % this season now over half of the goalies you have listed here are under that % but are playing at a high level in your opinion... At Dubnyk's age the upside and contract are much more appealing than dealing for Luongo in my opinion

Dubnyk's save percentage (based on his unsustainable percentage 4V5) is a mirage.

While he MAY have upside, he MAY not.

His contract was based on him being a bonafide NHL starter which I think is still questionable.

Old Fart Khabibulin, playing behind the same team, registered a .923 save percentage which bests Dubnyk's .920.

Is he a better bet than Luongo in the next 4-5 years?

Maybe...but the Oilers can't gamble that that is the case.

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#44 @Oilanderp
May 25 2013, 07:21PM
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Luongo is nice but really if we have any assets to trade at all they should be used to upgrade the defence and bottom 6 fwds.

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#45 DSF
May 25 2013, 07:27PM
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@Oilanderp wrote:

Luongo is nice but really if we have any assets to trade at all they should be used to upgrade the defence and bottom 6 fwds.

I'm not sure the Canucks and Oilers would trade with each other but Luongo, Alex Edler, Alex Burrows and Mason Raymond all may be available.

I would try a trade of Hemsky (which offsets Luongo's cap hit) Marincin and Paajarvi to Vancouver for Luongo, Burrows and Edler.

The Oilers upgrade in goal and on D and get a pesky top 6 scorer to play on the second line.

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#46 Gret99zky
May 25 2013, 07:56PM
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Terrible contract. Nobody wants that albatross.

Why help Vancouver off the hook?

Wait for Gillis to buy him out.

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#47 YFC Prez
May 25 2013, 08:07PM
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Josh Oiler wrote:

I THINK ANY TEAM STUPID ENOUGH TO TAKE THAT CONTRACT DESERVES TO SINK TO 30th PLACE IN THE NHL.

IM NOT HAPPY UNTIL VANCOUVER OWNER FIRES MIKE GILLIS FOR SUCH A RIDICULOUS CONTRACT AND THE MISMANAGEMENT OF THE WHOLE SITUATION.

BOBBY LOU NEVER WON A CUP.

IN FACT BOBBY LOU DISAPEARS IN THE PLAYOFF!!!

LET THEM KEEP BOBBY LOU AND HAPPILY WATCH THEIR GRADUAL DEGRESSION TO BOTTOM OF THE LEAGUE.. IN 2 YEARS THEY'll BE WHERE THE OILERS WERE IN 2009. - REBUILDING!!

LETS FIRE STU "MAGNIFICENT BASTARD" McGREGOR! For not replenishing our system or drafting Malcolm Subban!

I ALSO LIKE SHOUTING!

agree with everything you had to say about Stupid Luongo, Stupid Gillies and the Stupid Canucks.

I STILL LOVE THE MAGNIFICENT BASTARD THOUGH!!!

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#48 YFC Prez
May 25 2013, 08:22PM
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@NewAgeSys

Luongo was in a position to play relaxed in Florida. He played his best hockey IMO when he wasn't in a fish bowl like Vancouver. I doubt he would be relaxed in Edmonton, and if he would have nothing to prove on the oilers I wouldn't want him anywhere near here.

I am not entirely happy with Dubnyk, but I would like to see what he does with the same D that Luongo has played behind. Keep Dubby and see what he does when the blueline improves.

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#49 Dash
May 25 2013, 08:23PM
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Trade Sam Gagner + for Derek Stepan.

Bold Move

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#50 DSF
May 25 2013, 08:35PM
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YFC Prez wrote:

Luongo was in a position to play relaxed in Florida. He played his best hockey IMO when he wasn't in a fish bowl like Vancouver. I doubt he would be relaxed in Edmonton, and if he would have nothing to prove on the oilers I wouldn't want him anywhere near here.

I am not entirely happy with Dubnyk, but I would like to see what he does with the same D that Luongo has played behind. Keep Dubby and see what he does when the blueline improves.

What makes you think the blueline is going to improve?

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