MACT JOB 1: SIGNING SAMWISE

Lowetide
May 29 2013 05:48PM

 

Craig MacTavish has a 'to-do' list that would challenge mortals, but his media conferences suggest he's going to get a lot done this summer. We've talked draft, and buyouts and trades, but the truth is that job 1 is getting Sam Gagner's situation straighted out. 

Sam Gagner likes it in Edmonton based on reports, and the Oilers clearly like Samwise according to Craig MacTavish. However, Sam and his agent have an idea about fair dollars for service and the Oilers have a cap number in mind, and those two things might not be close. 

Sam's a unique case--expecting him to do a 'Laddy Smid' and dictate to the media his contract before it's written is folly--and his agent wouldn't be doing his job unless he's pushing the dollars higher. That's just good represenation. 

On the other hand, this is a sweet, sweet spot in the batting order for any young player. Sam Gagner has a chance to be an outstanding 'end of the batting order' offensive player and a real positive for this young Oiler team. Even the loser in a battle for good wingers is going to end up with Yak City and someone else who can cash, and that my friends is very nice address. 

SAM GAGNER 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 1.84 (4th among regular forwards)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 6.15 (1st among regular forwards, 19th in NHL)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among regular forwards (2nd line opp)
  • Qual Team: 6th best teammates among regular forwards
  • Corsi Rel: -4.3 (9th best among regular forwards) (-14.44 CorsiON)
  • Zone Start: 51.4% (4th easiest among regular forwards)
  • Zone Finish: 52.0% (3rd best among regular forwards)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 113/12.39% (2nd among F’s>70 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48, 14-24-38
  • Plus Minus: -6 on a team that was -15

Gagner's playing card looks exactly as we might expect at 5x5, and he had a wonderful run on the PP--a bad, bad thing considering MacT is about to buy free agent seasons from him. His shot differential was less than we should expect, and that's a concern, but the boxcars are lovely and he can clearly play with skill. 

Sam Gagner is going to cost a pretty penny. 

THE VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

(courtesy Bruce McCurdy via Rob Vollman)

Sam's bubble tells the story--small negative (red) in the shot differential and playing second toughest opp (putting him in the two way role) while still getting decent zone starts.

Is that graph worth $5M? Add his PP prowess and a great agent, I think a case can be made.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think it comes down to dollars. I believe Craig MacTavish when he says “Sam Gagner has really developed into a leader here, the type of character we want. And that’s going to be important when I’m making the decisions that we have the type of culture in that room. We’ve had a few years of too much of a circus in there. And that’s going to change" and I believe he wants to sign the young skill forward.

On the other hand, there's a line in the sand the new GM is unlikely to go past in terms of contract number and length, and with Samwise possibly a year away from free agency and holding some cards, I suspect this thing gets done one way or another before the free agent window opens.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
Avatar
#51 15w40
May 29 2013, 09:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

What's the going rate for an 2nd line winger that will see no time on the penalty kill and 2nd PP unit minutes??

I can't see over 4.0 avg on a 4 or 5 year deal.

And there shouldn't be a NTC or a NMC either.

Avatar
#52 speeds
May 29 2013, 09:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Lowetide wrote:

7 years? I like Gagner a lot, but seven years is a long, long time.

He would also be the youngest UFA of all time, according to MacT (group 3 UFA, I'm assuming he meant), if he becomes unrestricted next summer.

I don't disagree that 7 years is a long time, but it's an unusual situation. Gagner would be 31 when that hypothetical 7 year deal, signed next summer, would be over.

Avatar
#53 Rocket
May 29 2013, 09:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

@David S

Yeah no kidding. He put in his time & now wants to settle down with a nice long term contract. If this is MacT's first decision, then it will live in infamy.

(I don't actually know if he wants to settle down)

Avatar
#54 NewAgeSys
May 29 2013, 09:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Rocket wrote:

Gagner certainly can be a core player. On another team ;)

I believe any man who can present average NHL physicality and cerebral acumen has the potential to be a part of a Stanley Cup winning team.I dont believe stats are as connected to individuals as everyone thinks,I believe some players consistantly fail to maintain and intentionally break systemic continuity a lot more than others and catalyse their own offense mustang style.Ovie comes to mind.This would get you benched by me eventually,probably sooner than later,hallsy wouldnt like me much.Show me a stat that delineates between system induced offense and individually catalysed offense that is found outside of systemic influences and we will chat.

Stats dont win games men do,and simply scoring goals doesnt win games,scoring timely goals win games.Silent Sam has the ability to score timely goals and make timely plays.There is no statistical valuation for decisionmaking acumen and timing,or instincts,or drive,or passion,or grit,jesus this is boring already,stats bashing is to easy and is now boring,no longer challenging.NOTHING of core value to the winning formula is stats based,zero,nada,nuntzig,bupkiss.

Stats are what you see when you look over your shoulder and we all know what happens when you do that in any type of race rightÉIntuition is what tells you where to put the next foot.Which one do you want leading the charge.

Avatar
#55 dougtheslug
May 29 2013, 09:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

Yes I like what I see. And I'm not talking about Gagner's contact.

Avatar
#56 Citizen David
May 29 2013, 09:47PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
2
props
15w40 wrote:

What's the going rate for an 2nd line winger that will see no time on the penalty kill and 2nd PP unit minutes??

I can't see over 4.0 avg on a 4 or 5 year deal.

And there shouldn't be a NTC or a NMC either.

Gagner saw plenty of penalty kill time this past season.

Avatar
#57 Citizen David
May 29 2013, 09:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props

I'm a huge fan of Gagner. In his case, I totally believe he hasn't hit his prime yet. Only 23 years old. At 26 he could be scary. I would push hard for 4.25 for 5 years. Would settle at 4.5.

Avatar
#58 Rocket
May 29 2013, 09:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

@NewAgeSys

Oh I agree Gagner has game. He plays with passion & puts team first so I'm not trying to ride the guy. I just don't know if The Oilers can afford him & all the other kids. Something's gotta give.

Avatar
#59 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 10:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Supernova wrote:

It would be great If we could ink Sam to the Previous hemsky contract.

In my opinion Hemsky covered that deal well, and I think that would be exceptional contract for this team.

Seriously don't get why people want to get out from under Horcoff, his contract is finally good money and he is finally slotted where he should be.

Unless Mact is going to propose Horcoff to Tampa for Lecavalier at 60 % of his contract, we need to keep Horcoff.

Horcoff's contract is awful for the Oilers. His cap hit remains at $5.5M for the next two years. You can probably replace him with an equivalent player for $3.0-3.5M. That $2M+ savings goes a long way to improving other roster deficiencies.

I don't care if Daryl Katz gets good value for the next two years.

Avatar
#60 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 10:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
15w40 wrote:

What's the going rate for an 2nd line winger that will see no time on the penalty kill and 2nd PP unit minutes??

I can't see over 4.0 avg on a 4 or 5 year deal.

And there shouldn't be a NTC or a NMC either.

Gagner was actually one of the most effective penalty killers on the Oilers this season. It was his 5v5 play that was something less than desirable.

In my opinion, Gagner could make great strides in his overall game by shoring up his face-offs and cheating for defense. Specifically, he needs to do a better job covering his man in the slot area.

Avatar
#61 Quicksilver ballet
May 29 2013, 10:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

@GVBlackhawk

For 1.5 you could replace Horcoff with someone who exeeds him in every statistical category. Kyle Wellwood is that guy. That's a 4 mill per season savings. 2 mill in savings, what could they do with 4 by going with Wellwood?

Avatar
#62 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 10:25PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
2
props
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

For 1.5 you could replace Horcoff with someone who exeeds him in every statistical category. Kyle Wellwood is that guy. That's a 4 mill per season savings. 2 mill in savings, what could they do with 4 by going with Wellwood?

I see your logic but I would want a better possession player than Wellwood at 3C. I think it would be better value for the money to get a Boyd Gordon-type player; a player who can handle tougher minutes than a Wellwood can.

Avatar
#63 NewAgeSys
May 29 2013, 10:33PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Jamie B. wrote:

Sam's my favourite and I agree with MacT about his character, plus I'll be pissed if they played him through all those struggling years on a crappy team only to ditch him now, but I sincerely hope MacT plays hardass. Just spell it out for him: "Hey Sam, you wanna be around when we finally cash in all these last-place finishes and play on a pretty great team? Then you've gotta leave room for 93, 19 and 64 (or the d-man we trade someone for)."

If he'd rather have 5+ million and play in Florida or something, then you thank him for the six years of service and move him for as much as you can get. Totally Gagner's call.

Nice asessment,and I am glad Sam likes it here,however I am afraid that other teams have keyed in on some intangibles we loyal minions sometimes are blind to.Go away already Yotes!!

We are going to need to make an effort to hold on to Sam.Many teams are just like we were for a decade,trying to piece rosters together and balance size and skill,skill players are back in vogue and this isnt likely to change for the remainder of Sams career,he hit league evolution at a prime time for his personal skillset and package.Many teams have lots of lesser skilled bigger men who would cocoon Sam and give him much more room to work with than he will ever get here,if that happens we can all watch him make us look like idiots for ten years.

Pay attention to the comment that consistantly sneaks its way into Gagner conversations,his game elevates when he has quality linemates,this is because he is a good dynamic manager of his line as a centerman.Kudos to Mac-T for recognising that Sam can manage his line from the wing just as effectively as from the middle and from the wing he can bury the puck which really is what we drafted him to do for us.

Sure sure,we take a 6th overall kid at 18 and let him roll free offensively for a year and a half,then we put the hammer down and force him to become a defensively responsible NHLer in is sophmore year and the next two which he effectively does,then we ask him to become a dynamic playmaker at the NHL level which he effectively does,oh yes we should trade him or bust his balls over a few bucks right.Maybe we should go for the true trifecta and give him a year to focus on scoring goals and only scoring goals,just for the hell of it seeing as that is why we drafted the man after all right.

For the record every time Sam is on the ice I am waiting and expecting something positive to happen and this means others are doing the same thing,this means he is an exciting player who catalyses the playaction on the ice at both ends.

The question isnt if you can do things at the NHL level,it is can you do what I ask when I ask at the NHL level,and Gagner can deliver on that requirement consistantly,this is his biggest strength and our single biggest area of need rosterwide.Its a communication and Intuitive skillset that is hard to find,and Sam works on it diligently and consistantly ,and judging by how Yakupov evolved comparatively to Gagners strengths this past season,he can also teach teammates this skillset through osmosis on the ice.

Avatar
#64 madjam
May 29 2013, 10:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

Perhaps we should send Gagner and Hemsky to our parent club the L.A. Kings for Bernier and their first round pick ? That way we can watch them in Stanley Cup quest next year with all the other Oilers we send them . Sometimes I wonder if we are not their farm club - even Gretzky .

Avatar
#65 DSF
May 29 2013, 10:39PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
GVBlackhawk wrote:

I see your logic but I would want a better possession player than Wellwood at 3C. I think it would be better value for the money to get a Boyd Gordon-type player; a player who can handle tougher minutes than a Wellwood can.

Wellwood's "possession" numbers are just fine.

Corsi Rel +3.0

Corsi ON +2.05

OFF Zone start - 48.0%

OFF Zone finish - 52.6%

Qual Comp - +.003 (4th on the Jets)

You could replace either Horcoff or Gagner with Wellwood and, if you used the cap savings on a big productive winger, you would be ahead of the game.

Avatar
#66 Serious Gord
May 29 2013, 10:43PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

This team isn't going anywhere till these guys are gone. Horcoff, Hemsky and Gagner, all have huge holes in their game. The only thing Gags has going for him is when the Oilers are shooting fish in a barrel when in the offensive zone, and his give a ship meter has a reading on it compared to these other two supposed leaders. All three of these guys struggle, from the opponents blue line back to the Oilers goal line.

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, Edmonton has three on the same chain/team. This concludes this public service announcement, we now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

I agree 100%.

But also am very certain that MacT is in love with him and will over pay and over term him and probably throw in a Ntc.

This team chronically falls In love with the inventory. They are the Bay while the Elite teams are Walmart target et al.

Avatar
#67 15w40
May 29 2013, 10:57PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

Avatar
#68 DSF
May 29 2013, 11:01PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
15w40 wrote:

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

Gagner spent 1:35 SHTOI/G.

That was 7th among Oilers forwards.

Avatar
#69 Taylor Gang
May 29 2013, 11:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props

Okay crazy thought here... But WHAT IF he picks up right where he left off in a points perspective? Would we be willing to cope with his small stature?

Avatar
#70 Walter Sobchak
May 29 2013, 11:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props

Mac-T Things to do.

Get a top pairing defence men.

Rebuild the bottom six , that's 4 or 5 players.

Get at least one, fast, bid, skilled center capable of a two way game and offence.

Find and sign two goalies and draft another one.

Buyout Horcoff and Belanger.

Sign Gagner.

Did I miss anything?

How the hell does MacTavish do all this without trading someone?

Gagner is good as gone or MacTavish is full of crap.

Avatar
#71 DSF
May 29 2013, 11:22PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Taylor Gang wrote:

Okay crazy thought here... But WHAT IF he picks up right where he left off in a points perspective? Would we be willing to cope with his small stature?

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

Avatar
#72 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 11:28PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props
DSF wrote:

Gagner spent 1:35 SHTOI/G.

That was 7th among Oilers forwards.

Gagner spent 1:35 TOI/60 4v5 -- that is 6th among Oilers forwards who played 20+ games. And he only started getting PK ice time when Belanger (and Horcoff) went down with injuries.

Finished with a Corsi Relative Quality of Competition of +2.996, which led the team.

Avatar
#73 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:31PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
GVBlackhawk wrote:

Horcoff's contract is awful for the Oilers. His cap hit remains at $5.5M for the next two years. You can probably replace him with an equivalent player for $3.0-3.5M. That $2M+ savings goes a long way to improving other roster deficiencies.

I don't care if Daryl Katz gets good value for the next two years.

Horcoff's contract was horrible, now it is average to below average.

If you can improve on that player without a huge cost you do it. If you can move him for a asset you do it. If you are just buying him out that makes no sense at all.

Horcoff is not the issue with this team, in the playoffs the players like Horcoff excel and are valuable.

What's the harm in signing Wellwood and keeping Horcoff?

The cap hit is a complete non-factor. In two years when it is a factor it will be gone but we are dealing in the next season.

Maybe even by him out next year but unless you can improve dramatically on him you don't this year. The grass is always greener with other players.

Avatar
#74 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 11:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
DSF wrote:

Wellwood's "possession" numbers are just fine.

Corsi Rel +3.0

Corsi ON +2.05

OFF Zone start - 48.0%

OFF Zone finish - 52.6%

Qual Comp - +.003 (4th on the Jets)

You could replace either Horcoff or Gagner with Wellwood and, if you used the cap savings on a big productive winger, you would be ahead of the game.

Those numbers are okay, but sure, he is definitely better value than Horcoff when you consider cap hit.

Avatar
#75 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
DSF wrote:

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

DSF ,

You love to skew the field, and take small samples sizes.

Trade Hemsky move gagner to wing ( or injury replacement 2C) draft a 2C.

By the way you and I bantered about using the Canucks as a "model team" with their Centers.

They would have loved to have a Horcoff type player rather than Roy.

Avatar
#76 GVBlackhawk
May 29 2013, 11:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
Supernova wrote:

Horcoff's contract was horrible, now it is average to below average.

If you can improve on that player without a huge cost you do it. If you can move him for a asset you do it. If you are just buying him out that makes no sense at all.

Horcoff is not the issue with this team, in the playoffs the players like Horcoff excel and are valuable.

What's the harm in signing Wellwood and keeping Horcoff?

The cap hit is a complete non-factor. In two years when it is a factor it will be gone but we are dealing in the next season.

Maybe even by him out next year but unless you can improve dramatically on him you don't this year. The grass is always greener with other players.

If you can get a similar player and save $2.0+ million dollars on cap hit, why would you keep the overpriced guy?

That $2.0+ cap hit can be used to shore up the defense or other weakness.

Failure to recognize this is poor management.

Avatar
#77 Supernova
May 29 2013, 11:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
GVBlackhawk wrote:

If you can get a similar player and save $2.0+ million dollars on cap hit, why would you keep the overpriced guy?

That $2.0+ cap hit can be used to shore up the defense or other weakness.

Failure to recognize this is poor management.

I am saying they are not in a cap issue state this year.

Why not add that same guy and move away from Horcoff next year. You can even move Horcoff down the line up or to wing if the other guy is better.

The problem is until we know the guy is better why move on. Oilers are not stuck for cap space and highly unlikely to acquire a guy ( weber) that would use all that space.

We need players on the 3 and 4 lines that can play, and we need Center depth.

Unless MacT is signing 3 Centers this summer, we won't have that depth.

Avatar
#78 GVBlackhawk
May 30 2013, 12:09AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props
Supernova wrote:

I am saying they are not in a cap issue state this year.

Why not add that same guy and move away from Horcoff next year. You can even move Horcoff down the line up or to wing if the other guy is better.

The problem is until we know the guy is better why move on. Oilers are not stuck for cap space and highly unlikely to acquire a guy ( weber) that would use all that space.

We need players on the 3 and 4 lines that can play, and we need Center depth.

Unless MacT is signing 3 Centers this summer, we won't have that depth.

The Oilers will spend to the cap...64.3M for next season.

The biggest weakness on the Oilers is defense. I would rather the team acquire a $5M defenseman (top minute guy) than a $3M defenseman (2nd or 3rd pairing guy). The $2M has to come from somewhere.

I agree with you that the team requires better 3rd and 4th line guys. These players will cost money. For example, if you want to add a Stalberg, Bickell, or better, you are looking at $3.0M+. The money has to come from somewhere.

In order to improve the team, you cannot have players on the roster who are being paid at a level that is not commensurate with performance (i.e. negative-value contracts).

I don't dislike Horcoff but he is a classic negative-value contract and should not be retained.

Avatar
#79 Taylor Gang
May 30 2013, 12:25AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
4
props
DSF wrote:

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

I was asking a hypothetical question and you tell me something that has no part in this. Way to be

Avatar
#80 YEGFan
May 30 2013, 12:50AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props

This post covers the Sam Gagner issue from top to bottom: http://www.coppernblue.com/2013/5/21/4352068/sam-gagner-new-contract

The ceiling is 4.5M but I doubt Gagner gets that. If he starts demanding more he will be traded. If he opts for a 1yr through arbitration he will be traded. He is unlikely to demand more than the 4.5M because there is plenty of precedent working against him and MacT can point to the same advanced statistics that you are all pointing to.

If you can sign him for somewhere in the 4-4.25M range you would be foolish to trade him unless the other team is over paying. Some team might see him as a young, above average, second line centre who can put the puck in the net. That's an attractive thing and somebody may be willing to pay a premium for it.

If the Oilers are not getting a premium they should not trade Gagner, unless he is demanding over 4.5M, which he probably won't unless he is unhappy with the team.

Avatar
#81 Sanaa Montana
May 30 2013, 12:59AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props

Oilers will sign and trade Gagner, or they might just trade him as is.

There is no way the Oilers sign and keep Gagner long term. Mac said that he wants to get rid of the players that might have got use to losing-all Gagner knows is losing. When Mac praised Gagner and spoke about his plans for the future, he was giving Gagner and his agent some of that PR butter(I cant believe its not margarine)

To sign Gagner to and keep him is a risk, just as much a risk as is putting Gagner on the wing. Gagner cant win a battle with a granny at a grocery store yet alone a NHL dman along the boards.(joke).but he is pretty weak on the puck.

Gagner's stats may suggest he deserves $4mil a year, but if you judge by his play and value to the team: dont give him over $3mil.

Avatar
#82 Time Travelling Sean
May 30 2013, 02:34AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props

That dreadful season of 44 points doesn't seem so dreadful for a 2nd line C, and that's using extremely conservative projections based off of a cold-streak which every player goes through.

Turris was on pace for 49 points if this was an 82 game season.

Krejci was on pace for 57 points in 82 games aswell.

Doesn't seem that far off, esp considering Gags was really on pace for 64 points.

Avatar
#83 NewfoundlandOil
May 30 2013, 06:13AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

This talk of replacing Horcoff with Wellwood is a bit strange.

I get the cap hit might be lower, but really who cares.

MacT and much of the fan base insist the lineup needs to get bigger and there is one Wellwood stat that trumps all.

Height: 5' 10" Weight: 181

I am not a big believer that size is the answer, but why bring in a smaller guy for the 3C or 2C slot just to save a couple mill in cap space/salary.

MacT would get roasted for this move.

See if you can sign Gagner at $4 Mil/over 3-4 years (move him to wing if another centre is available) and ride out Horcoff's contract for another year, if he wants to stay. Trade Hemsky.

Avatar
#84 They're $hittie
May 30 2013, 06:31AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props

@DSF

Wellwood is not better than gagner. and 30 gms in the league and all media would agree with this statement. Just please shut up.

Avatar
#85 They're $hittie
May 30 2013, 06:35AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
15w40 wrote:

Depending on who they pick up to shore up the centre position, I think #4, #14, and #93 may see more time on the PK.

Pajaarvi, if he is still here will also see quite a bit of PK duty I'm guessing.

Need somebody that can have at least a 50/50 success rate on the dot.

I didn't really know how much time Gagner spent on the PK but with his reported defensive short-comings, I would have thought there to be better options.

I was surprised to see they ranked in the top 10

gagner was the oilers best pk guy. he had a bad year. last year he lead the oilers in plus minus and had one of the better scoring chance differentials on the team. Last year the oilers leading scorer had the most scoring chances for but the worst differential on the team. Defensive game is a tough one to measure.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=25&s=24&f1=2012_s&f2=4v5&f5=EDM&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+17+18+19+20+21+22+23+24+25+26+27+28#

Avatar
#86 brad
May 30 2013, 06:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
GVBlackhawk wrote:

Gagner spent 1:35 TOI/60 4v5 -- that is 6th among Oilers forwards who played 20+ games. And he only started getting PK ice time when Belanger (and Horcoff) went down with injuries.

Finished with a Corsi Relative Quality of Competition of +2.996, which led the team.

Not something to brag about seeing our results I would say. I like Gags, but he gets pushed off the puck way to much in the offensive zone simply because of his size. If we keep him he needs size wingers, or he will remain by far ineffective in games except for a few good outtings when the other team is equally as physical as our game is.

Avatar
#87 mayorblaine
May 30 2013, 06:46AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

if Horcoff goes, Sam has to stay.

if he stays then 3yr -4.25, or 4yr 4.

if Horcoff stays, bye Sam.

Avatar
#88 GVBlackhawk
May 30 2013, 08:11AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
NewfoundlandOil wrote:

This talk of replacing Horcoff with Wellwood is a bit strange.

I get the cap hit might be lower, but really who cares.

MacT and much of the fan base insist the lineup needs to get bigger and there is one Wellwood stat that trumps all.

Height: 5' 10" Weight: 181

I am not a big believer that size is the answer, but why bring in a smaller guy for the 3C or 2C slot just to save a couple mill in cap space/salary.

MacT would get roasted for this move.

See if you can sign Gagner at $4 Mil/over 3-4 years (move him to wing if another centre is available) and ride out Horcoff's contract for another year, if he wants to stay. Trade Hemsky.

Nice contradiction. You don't believe size is the answer but you clearly state that Wellwood is a small player..."there is one stat that trumps all".

And for the last time, you don't want a 3C with a cap hit of 5.5M per season. Those dollars can be more effectively spent elsewhere.

Avatar
#89 j
May 30 2013, 08:23AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
2
props

Is Wellwood the new Horcoff or the old Gagner? I can't seem to keep up. I've never heard so much love for a player that has played on 4 teams in 6 years and has yet to break 50 points or 20 PIMs. I thought we were trying to move away from mediocrity?

Avatar
#90 YEGFan
May 30 2013, 08:42AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props

I really have a tough time understanding the logic behind some people's desperation to get Gagner out of town. I just went back to read the scouting reports on Sam Gagner before the 2007 draft and they are extremely positive using language like "vision," "raises the game of everyone around him," and "quick release." Judging by the scouting reports he seems like he was head and shoulders ahead of Monahan is today. If Calgary were to offer the #6 pick straight up for Gagner (the same pick that was used to select him) would anyone turn them down? I am guessing the answer is an emphatic NO.

That philosophy seems illogical to me. I just don't understand the rationale behind rolling the dice again on a player who might possibly be as good as Gagner, very possibly could be worse, and has a shot at being better. I understand that this is the prevailing thinking in the NHL and comprehend the value of entry level contracts, but to me, Gagner is more valuable to the Oilers than even Sasha Barkov (straight up) would be next season, and weighted for probabilities of Barkov being a bust, through the length of their careers.

I understand there are known holes in Gagner's game, but they are the kind of holes that players rectify. There is a legitimate chance ANY draft pick amounts to an also ran AHLer, Sam Gagner is already known to be better than that.

Avatar
#91 CalgaryOilersFan
May 30 2013, 09:22AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
3
props
DSF wrote:

Gagner's P/60 5V5 this past season was 1.84 (95th in the league among forwards who played at least 40 games)

Tom Pyatt, Vernon Fiddler and Andrew Cogliano were some notable players who posted a better number.

Gagner has always received a great deal of primo icetime and PP opportunities (33rd in P/60 5V4) and still hasn't put up the numbers that you would think appropriate.

Considering the weaknesses in his defensive game it's risky business.

Sam Gagner ranks 42 among centers with a P/60 5V5 at 1.84,

Henrik Zetterberg, David Backes, Joe Thorton, Jordan Staal, Mike Richards, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins were some notable players who posted a worst number.

Avatar
#92 15w40
May 30 2013, 09:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

@They're $hittie

When I looked on the Oilers' website, there were 21 names listed ahead of Gagner based on +/-.

Not the only indicator but it doesn't look great.

Not that it matters to the PK as based on my understanding you don't get a minus as a penalty killer if you are on for a goal against.

Might be wrong.

Edit: I'm not running #89 out of town - just commenting on where he might fit in the Oilers' payrole structure

Avatar
#93 2004Z06
May 30 2013, 09:34AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

This article is about Gagner, not Horcoff! So sick of the Horcoff crap. His situation will sort itself out over the next year or two. Let it go already!

As for Gagner...He is one of the few assets that are in high demand over this summer. Very few centers available that are young and have no term left on contract. He is prime trade bait this year.

If he stays, he needs to be moved to the wing. He lacks three prime assets that are a MUST in a centerman. His faceoff numbers are horrific, his size/physicality are lacking (not his fault, simply genetics) and he is a defensive liability in his own zone every time he is on the ice.

Sign and trade, trade, or sign and move to the wing. Those are the only three options. Lots of teams looking for scoring depth out there. Hemsky + Gagner could bring back a solid D man or big C.

I still think Burmistrov is a 2C option on the cheap....Could be great with Yakupov and maybe Nishushkin....

Avatar
#94 LinkfromHyrule
May 30 2013, 10:05AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

I think Gagner gets signed, in the 4-4.5 for 4-5 year range. I hope he gets signed. You can't place dollar value on the leadership skills he has. His give a crap meter is always at 100%.

Also how in the heck do any of you think we can or should ship horcoff out? Who is going to want a 3C, 4C on a good team, center at 5.5 mil a year.... We would have to take on some of his salary and still get garbage in return. I would rather ship hemsky out personally

Avatar
#95 NewfoundlandOil
May 30 2013, 10:09AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props

@GVBlackhawk

No not a contradiction at all. At least not for me.

I am not a big believer that size is the answer.

Given MacT's stated objective to add size and the population's desire for it why are we having a discussion re: Wellwood when the guy is 5'10" 181 lbs.

So yes the notion of Wellwood as being a fit or replacement is contradictory to the stated objective of the team.

I agree that Horcoff's cap hit is undesirable for his current role, so thanks for pointing that out "for the last time". But perhaps, barring a compliance buyout and someone better and more suitable coming along, they may be stuck with it.

Edit: If Horcoff is game for a compliance buyout then I can see it happening, otherwise I think the organization is to loyal to buy him out without his blessing, and I don't think the latter is a good thing.

Avatar
#96 David S
May 30 2013, 10:13AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
5
props

Interesting that everybody is so hot to trade one of the few assets on this team that have any actual value. Isn't the point to acquire guys like that rather than trade 'em?

Hemsky is gone. Horcoff is (probably) gone. PRV is a third-liner in the real world. Jones is not ultra desirable. That's four guys with less value to this team you could add to the 7th pick to get that big C everybody wants. Then you buy the big D and move Sam to the wing.

You give him $4.5M/Yr for 5 years, sit back and enjoy a 60 point winger who sets up Yakupov rockets all day long and be damn happy you didn't pay any attention to the HockeyBuzz/Hockey's Future/"BAM! Stanley Cup!" crowd.

*Drops mic*

Avatar
#97 YEGFan
May 30 2013, 10:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props
2004Z06 wrote:

This article is about Gagner, not Horcoff! So sick of the Horcoff crap. His situation will sort itself out over the next year or two. Let it go already!

As for Gagner...He is one of the few assets that are in high demand over this summer. Very few centers available that are young and have no term left on contract. He is prime trade bait this year.

If he stays, he needs to be moved to the wing. He lacks three prime assets that are a MUST in a centerman. His faceoff numbers are horrific, his size/physicality are lacking (not his fault, simply genetics) and he is a defensive liability in his own zone every time he is on the ice.

Sign and trade, trade, or sign and move to the wing. Those are the only three options. Lots of teams looking for scoring depth out there. Hemsky + Gagner could bring back a solid D man or big C.

I still think Burmistrov is a 2C option on the cheap....Could be great with Yakupov and maybe Nishushkin....

First you say Gagner is valuable and everyone wants him because he is a young centre, then you say that he's useless because he cannot play centre. He either is valuable as a centre and other teams will trade for him, or he is useless as a centre and therefore we cannot expect MacT to get anything of value for him. If the former is true the Oilers should think long and hard before they take a gamble on getting rid of him for someone like Burmistrov. If the latter is true then he is a bust and the professionals at other organizations will not offer you pieces that make this team significantly better. Personally, I think it is the former and the majority of your post is off the mark.

Also, you are foolish if you do not consider the other players on the roster when discussing Gagner. Horcoff is 100% a legitimate discussion topic in this thread. If you do not understand why I honestly think you are over simplifying this and probably cannot come up with any insightful ideas. Not only that, but your post implies talking about Burmistrov is more relevant to the Oilers contract negotiations than talking about Horcoff is!

Avatar
#98 Citizen David
May 30 2013, 10:40AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
YEGFan wrote:

First you say Gagner is valuable and everyone wants him because he is a young centre, then you say that he's useless because he cannot play centre. He either is valuable as a centre and other teams will trade for him, or he is useless as a centre and therefore we cannot expect MacT to get anything of value for him. If the former is true the Oilers should think long and hard before they take a gamble on getting rid of him for someone like Burmistrov. If the latter is true then he is a bust and the professionals at other organizations will not offer you pieces that make this team significantly better. Personally, I think it is the former and the majority of your post is off the mark.

Also, you are foolish if you do not consider the other players on the roster when discussing Gagner. Horcoff is 100% a legitimate discussion topic in this thread. If you do not understand why I honestly think you are over simplifying this and probably cannot come up with any insightful ideas. Not only that, but your post implies talking about Burmistrov is more relevant to the Oilers contract negotiations than talking about Horcoff is!

This.

Avatar
#99 GVBlackhawk
May 30 2013, 10:55AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
1
props
DSF wrote:

In his last 20 games he scored 3 goals and 11 points. (-7)

That pro-rates over an 82 game season to 12 goals and 44 points. (-28)

Considering he played during the lockout and many other players were just getting up to speed, I'd be very wary of his production last season.

When the games mattered, he was dreadful.

Prorating on a small sample size...big surprise!

Try prorating on his points streak and see what kind of numbers you get.

All games matter. The points earned in game one are as important as the points earned in the final game.

Avatar
#100 GVBlackhawk
May 30 2013, 11:01AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
+1
0
props
j wrote:

Is Wellwood the new Horcoff or the old Gagner? I can't seem to keep up. I've never heard so much love for a player that has played on 4 teams in 6 years and has yet to break 50 points or 20 PIMs. I thought we were trying to move away from mediocrity?

Nobody wants Wellwood except for DSF.

He was only used as a comparable to Horcoff (numbers wise) to show how over-valued Horcoff's contract is. I.e. you can get a Horcoff-lite for 2.0M per season.

Comments are closed for this article.